WI: Battle of Sarikamish was an Ottoman victory.

[Ibn naazbu]

The plan for battle of Sarikamish devised by Enver Pasha while great on paper was too complex by half for the troops to enact. But what if Battle Sarikamish was an Ottoman victory.
How would the this effect the Ottoman Empire and the Russian empire.
Would it cause an earlier Russian withdrawal from the War?

And also would victory at Sarikamish butterfly away Armenian Genocide since the defeat had been blamed on Armenians that truly started the Mass Genocide

 

[Ibn naazbu]

@Osman Aga

 

[Osman Aga]

A theoretical victory is good... But it isn't enough for the Ottomans. The Russians have too many troops there with some of their best commanders. My expectation is the Ottomans Army would stay on the defense in Sarikamish until Spring. If the situation allows it (Russian counteroffensive failing miserably) then the Third Army (if the losses are not large) make one more move to Kars until stopping most offensives. Kars helps the Ottoman Army to put a better defensive position in Anatolia, which is necessary. The Third Army cannot drive the Russians out of the Southern Caucasus, but only take a good position to halt Russian advances to Eastern Anatolia. The Armenian Groups are in a tough spot. If they rebel, they will be taken care with a harsh hand, unfortunately with a part of a large relocation attempt to Syria as OTL. I wouldn't expect it though some kind of sabotage attempts will be made.

Between 1915-1917 a lot of things can happen. If the Third Army can keep Sarikamish/Kars until the Russians lose more against the Germans in Poland and the Baltics, they will be forced to send more troops in that direction considering the Ottoman Army cannot really take offensive attempts against the Russians. When the Russians are pretty much broken and in revolution, the Ottoman Army start their final assault on the area of Yerevan and Gyumri as the resistance is gone.
If the Russians beat the Third Army in the period 1915-1917, the situation can be like OTL or only a little worse. With regards to the Armenian situation it may not be too different if the Armenians still start an insurgency so close to the Front.

The consequences are that no large Armenian refugees move to Russian Armenia. Demographics are not largely changed. The Ottoman Army will try to retake Batum at least, which is guaranteed. If the Ottoman Government cannot secure German support to annex Azerbaijan and Armenia then they will support an Azerbaijani Movement for independence, hoping to annex it in the near future.
Militarily speaking, the Eastern Front offers opportunities. When the Gallipolli Front has ended, the Ottoman Government can send additional troops to the Eastern Front to reinforce it. So the Third Army needs to hold Sarikamish/Kars until mid 1916, reinforcements can finally arrive. This also depends on the situation as Istanbul will also consider moving troops to Iraq or Palestine before things get overheated there. Holding Sarikamish/Kars has an opportunity as the Ottoman Army have more men at one place rather than less men in two places (Erzurum-Bitlis) for defensive purposes. That is the only thing the Ottoman Army needs to do. The only thing that they can do considering the resources of the Ottoman Empire and the circumstances.
Consequences for Russia is hoping to get a quick victory against the Ottoman Army after such defeat, which could lead to more rash decisions. But then again, some of their finest commanders were there. If the news of defeats and failed attempts to flush out the Ottoman Army out of Kars leads to nothing, the Czar could end up even more in trouble. In short, Russia won't necessarily lose most of the Souther Caucasus apart of the Kars Oblast (Minus Batum) but attempts to retake it and the rising casualties can put it in bigger trouble than OTL. A Russian Revolution in November-December 1916? Who knows... Another thing... The loss of two battles in a short time in the Caucasus means Russia will likely retreat troops from Persia to reinforce the losses, rather than stripping troops from the Eastern European Front or conscripting more peasants to start an offensive again. If Enver plays his cards right he can stay on the defensive and provoke a rebellion in Persia that the Russians and the British have to deal with resulting in more casualties. An even less unlikely but not impossible thing is Enver trying to lure the Qajar Shah in the war when the British and the Russians are weakened in Persia by helping them to recover most of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Not that Ahmad Shah Qajar would go for it but Enver might consider it...

But how the battle ends in a victory... that is important. The soldiers were not prepared for Winter and did not really have enough numbers to secure a victory without too much casualties. If the Russians somehow miscommunicate which leads to panic in the ranks and a route again, this could be ideal.

 

[Ibn naazbu]

A theoretical victory is good... But it isn't enough for the Ottomans. The Russians have too many troops there with some of their best commanders. My expectation is the Ottomans Army would stay on the defense in Sarikamish until Spring. If the situation allows it (Russian counteroffensive failing miserably) then the Third Army (if the losses are not large) make one more move to Kars until stopping most offensives. Kars helps the Ottoman Army to put a better defensive position in Anatolia, which is necessary. The Third Army cannot drive the Russians out of the Southern Caucasus, but only take a good position to halt Russian advances to Eastern Anatolia. The Armenian Groups are in a tough spot. If they rebel, they will be taken care with a harsh hand, unfortunately with a part of a large relocation attempt to Syria as OTL. I wouldn't expect it though some kind of sabotage attempts will be made.

Between 1915-1917 a lot of things can happen. If the Third Army can keep Sarikamish/Kars until the Russians lose more against the Germans in Poland and the Baltics, they will be forced to send more troops in that direction considering the Ottoman Army cannot really take offensive attempts against the Russians. When the Russians are pretty much broken and in revolution, the Ottoman Army start their final assault on the area of Yerevan and Gyumri as the resistance is gone.
If the Russians beat the Third Army in the period 1915-1917, the situation can be like OTL or only a little worse. With regards to the Armenian situation it may not be too different if the Armenians still start an insurgency so close to the Front.

The consequences are that no large Armenian refugees move to Russian Armenia. Demographics are not largely changed. The Ottoman Army will try to retake Batum at least, which is guaranteed. If the Ottoman Government cannot secure German support to annex Azerbaijan and Armenia then they will support an Azerbaijani Movement for independence, hoping to annex it in the near future.
Militarily speaking, the Eastern Front offers opportunities. When the Gallipolli Front has ended, the Ottoman Government can send additional troops to the Eastern Front to reinforce it. So the Third Army needs to hold Sarikamish/Kars until mid 1916, reinforcements can finally arrive. This also depends on the situation as Istanbul will also consider moving troops to Iraq or Palestine before things get overheated there. Holding Sarikamish/Kars has an opportunity as the Ottoman Army have more men at one place rather than less men in two places (Erzurum-Bitlis) for defensive purposes. That is the only thing the Ottoman Army needs to do. The only thing that they can do considering the resources of the Ottoman Empire and the circumstances.
Consequences for Russia is hoping to get a quick victory against the Ottoman Army after such defeat, which could lead to more rash decisions. But then again, some of their finest commanders were there. If the news of defeats and failed attempts to flush out the Ottoman Army out of Kars leads to nothing, the Czar could end up even more in trouble. In short, Russia won't necessarily lose most of the Souther Caucasus apart of the Kars Oblast (Minus Batum) but attempts to retake it and the rising casualties can put it in bigger trouble than OTL. A Russian Revolution in November-December 1916? Who knows... Another thing... The loss of two battles in a short time in the Caucasus means Russia will likely retreat troops from Persia to reinforce the losses, rather than stripping troops from the Eastern European Front or conscripting more peasants to start an offensive again. If Enver plays his cards right he can stay on the defensive and provoke a rebellion in Persia that the Russians and the British have to deal with resulting in more casualties. An even less unlikely but not impossible thing is Enver trying to lure the Qajar Shah in the war when the British and the Russians are weakened in Persia by helping them to recover most of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Not that Ahmad Shah Qajar would go for it but Enver might consider it...

But how the battle ends in a victory... that is important. The soldiers were not prepared for Winter and did not really have enough numbers to secure a victory without too much casualties. If the Russians somehow miscommunicate which leads to panic in the ranks and a route again, this could be ideal.

So what would a stable Eastern front mean for ottomans as a whole

 

[Osman Aga]

So what would a stable Eastern front mean for ottomans as a whole

Less casualties, civilian and militarily. Troops can be redirected elsewhere than the Eastern Front, like Palestine and Iraq. No Armenian insurgency is a big boost. A potential earlier Russian revolution, in late 1916 is pretty much a big boost for the Ottoman Empire. More forces can be redirected to fronts in need. This also counts for the Germans and Austro-Hungarians.

 

[Ibn naazbu]

Consequences for Russia is hoping to get a quick victory against the Ottoman Army after such defeat, which could lead to more rash decisions. But then again, some of their finest commanders were there. If the news of defeats and failed attempts to flush out the Ottoman Army out of Kars leads to nothing, the Czar could end up even more in trouble. In short, Russia won't necessarily lose most of the Souther Caucasus apart of the Kars Oblast (Minus Batum) but attempts to retake it and the rising casualties can put it in bigger trouble than OTL. A Russian Revolution in November-December 1916? Who knows... Another thing... The loss of two battles in a short time in the Caucasus means Russia will likely retreat troops from Persia to reinforce the losses, rather than stripping troops from the Eastern European Front or conscripting more peasants to start an offensive again.

Didn't the Germans support the offensive so that it would draw troops from Russia's Eastern frontier?

Russia withdrawing a year early will most likely mean a CP victory.

 

[Osman Aga]

Didn't the Germans support the offensive so that it would draw troops from Russia's Eastern frontier?

Russia withdrawing a year early will most likely mean a CP victory.

See it like this, if the Czar heard about a defeat in the Caucasus he may be afraid of more defeats and more loses and act stupid. That is redirecting more troops to the South who possibly won't reach in time to change the battle anyway. The reality is that beyond Kars is out of Ottoman capabilities with the existent Russian military there.

Not really a year but more like 6-9 months earlier. Especially if the Germans are more lenient on the Russians after Revolution broke out and let the locals deal with their own independence struggle. The truth is Russia was not willing to give up what the Germans wanted which makes Russia staying in the war still long enough but not beyond 1917. That is if they keep failing to achieve a lot of things.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

The plan for battle of Sarikamish devised by Enver Pasha while great on paper was too complex by half for the troops to enact. But what if Battle Sarikamish was an Ottoman victory.
How would the this effect the Ottoman Empire and the Russian empire.
Would it cause an earlier Russian withdrawal from the War?

And also would victory at Sarikamish butterfly away Armenian Genocide since the defeat had been blamed on Armenians that truly started the Mass Genocide

That probably one of my favorite WW1 PoD I’ve thinked about doing a thread about it but I forgot thank for doing it . Not a lot to say in addition to Osman but we might see the Bulgaria joining the war sooner if the Ottoman Empire demonstrate it capacity and possibly the Italian hesitating a little more before joining the Entente if it look like the Ottoman Empire isn’t crumbling and Russia is bogged down in the Caucasus . Also their a possibility of no Arab revolt if it look like the Ottoman Empire is doing better and Hussein is less confident of the empire demise but the British will court him more if they have more difficulty with the ottoman so it balance itself I guess . And if they follow it with a victory their jihad declaration might get a little more backing and depending of how thing play Austria Hungary might do better in Italy and general .

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Russia withdrawing a year early will most likely mean a CP victory.

I think the entente have still a decent shoot at victory even with that people generally underestimate the entente resilience to get a CP victory . The entente have still a lot of ressource and the PC will still be in a bad situation but better than OTL . I think Sarikamish is good PoD to get a longer war or a negotiate peace without either side completely crumbling wich would be fairly interesting

 

[Osman Aga]

I think the entente have still a decent shoot at victory even with that people generally underestimate the entente resilience to get a CP victory . The entente have still a lot of ressource and the PC will still be in a bad situation but better than OTL . I think Sarikamish is good PoD to get a longer war or a negotiate peace without either side completely crumbling wich would be fairly interesting

The Entente would have if the USA was also a participant. With only the French and the British, with most Germans being slowly moved to the West, how long can the Entente fight? Especially if they also go on the offensive every now and then? Russia was unsuccessful to defeat Germany but it kept the Germans busy. A few months earlier and the Entente can fight until the USA moves in or cut their losses, which won't be catastrophic as the Germans will likely have eliminated at least one enemy: Russia.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

The Entente would have if the USA was also a participant. With only the French and the British, with most Germans being slowly moved to the West, how long can the Entente fight? Especially if they also go on the offensive every now and then?

don’t forget Italy I think the entente should be able to fight as long as Germany and honestly longer .

 

[Osman Aga]

don’t forget Italy I think the entente should be able to fight as long as Germany and honestly longer .

That is if the British are willing to fight. My expectation is:
1. If the Western Front breaches then the British could likely look for a way out
2. If Paris falls the French may still not give up though it makes fights more desperate
3. If the UK wants out they will make a minimum demand of retreat from Belgium + France's territorial integrity not harmed in Europe at least. Nothing large at least.
4. The UK will pressure the French to end the war. If the French accept it is over. The UK is relatively less harmed than France. France will likely lose some recently gained colonies in Africa to end German occupation + gutting their navy and army + war reparations.
5. If France refuses then the British will get the best deal possible out while leaving France alone to face the Germans. The French ar at the mercy of Berlin.

I don't think the Entente is destined to lose, but conflict is far from even if Russia is out by late 1916 or early 1917 (November 1916-March 1917). The Entente needs a lot of luck and hope the USA enters the war earlier.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

That is if the British are willing to fight. My expectation is:
1. If the Western Front breaches then the British could likely look for a way out
2. If Paris falls the French may still not give up though it makes fights more desperate

Honestly I don’t see any breaches in the western front happening nor Paris failing for me either the war end in a negotiated peace after a stalemate or the allied defeat a exhausted Germany in a 1919 offensive .

3. If the UK wants out they will make a minimum demand of retreat from Belgium + France's territorial integrity not harmed in Europe at least. Nothing large at least.
4. The UK will pressure the French to end the war. If the French accept it is over. The UK is relatively less harmed than France. France will likely lose some recently gained colonies in Africa to end German occupation + gutting their navy and army + war reparations.

Agree .

5. If France refuses then the British will get the best deal possible out while leaving France alone to face the Germans. The French ar at the mercy of Berlin.

That or the possibility they continu the war seeing how the blockade is harming the central power .

I don't think the Entente is destined to lose, but conflict is far from even if Russia is out by late 1916 or early 1917 (November 1916-March 1917). The Entente needs a lot of luck and hope the USA enters the war earlier.

Yes the entente will need some luck but I wan still them winning . Also what would happen in the Balkan front in this timeline ? And how the war in Irak and Palestine is affected by the ottoman doing better in the Caucasus ? Also a thing more likely to happen in TTL is separate peace

 

[Jozon]

A theoretical victory is good... But it isn't enough for the Ottomans. The Russians have too many troops there with some of their best commanders. My expectation is the Ottomans Army would stay on the defense in Sarikamish until Spring. If the situation allows it (Russian counteroffensive failing miserably) then the Third Army (if the losses are not large) make one more move to Kars until stopping most offensives. Kars helps the Ottoman Army to put a better defensive position in Anatolia, which is necessary. The Third Army cannot drive the Russians out of the Southern Caucasus, but only take a good position to halt Russian advances to Eastern Anatolia. The Armenian Groups are in a tough spot. If they rebel, they will be taken care with a harsh hand, unfortunately with a part of a large relocation attempt to Syria as OTL. I wouldn't expect it though some kind of sabotage attempts will be made.

Between 1915-1917 a lot of things can happen. If the Third Army can keep Sarikamish/Kars until the Russians lose more against the Germans in Poland and the Baltics, they will be forced to send more troops in that direction considering the Ottoman Army cannot really take offensive attempts against the Russians. When the Russians are pretty much broken and in revolution, the Ottoman Army start their final assault on the area of Yerevan and Gyumri as the resistance is gone.
If the Russians beat the Third Army in the period 1915-1917, the situation can be like OTL or only a little worse. With regards to the Armenian situation it may not be too different if the Armenians still start an insurgency so close to the Front.

The consequences are that no large Armenian refugees move to Russian Armenia. Demographics are not largely changed. The Ottoman Army will try to retake Batum at least, which is guaranteed. If the Ottoman Government cannot secure German support to annex Azerbaijan and Armenia then they will support an Azerbaijani Movement for independence, hoping to annex it in the near future.
Militarily speaking, the Eastern Front offers opportunities. When the Gallipolli Front has ended, the Ottoman Government can send additional troops to the Eastern Front to reinforce it. So the Third Army needs to hold Sarikamish/Kars until mid 1916, reinforcements can finally arrive. This also depends on the situation as Istanbul will also consider moving troops to Iraq or Palestine before things get overheated there. Holding Sarikamish/Kars has an opportunity as the Ottoman Army have more men at one place rather than less men in two places (Erzurum-Bitlis) for defensive purposes. That is the only thing the Ottoman Army needs to do. The only thing that they can do considering the resources of the Ottoman Empire and the circumstances.
Consequences for Russia is hoping to get a quick victory against the Ottoman Army after such defeat, which could lead to more rash decisions. But then again, some of their finest commanders were there. If the news of defeats and failed attempts to flush out the Ottoman Army out of Kars leads to nothing, the Czar could end up even more in trouble. In short, Russia won't necessarily lose most of the Souther Caucasus apart of the Kars Oblast (Minus Batum) but attempts to retake it and the rising casualties can put it in bigger trouble than OTL. A Russian Revolution in November-December 1916? Who knows... Another thing... The loss of two battles in a short time in the Caucasus means Russia will likely retreat troops from Persia to reinforce the losses, rather than stripping troops from the Eastern European Front or conscripting more peasants to start an offensive again. If Enver plays his cards right he can stay on the defensive and provoke a rebellion in Persia that the Russians and the British have to deal with resulting in more casualties. An even less unlikely but not impossible thing is Enver trying to lure the Qajar Shah in the war when the British and the Russians are weakened in Persia by helping them to recover most of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Not that Ahmad Shah Qajar would go for it but Enver might consider it...

But how the battle ends in a victory... that is important. The soldiers were not prepared for Winter and did not really have enough numbers to secure a victory without too much casualties. If the Russians somehow miscommunicate which leads to panic in the ranks and a route again, this could be ideal.

"Relocation attempt to Syria", "Armenian insurgency"...

To be clear, you mean the Armenian genocide?

 

[Osman Aga]

Honestly I don’t see any breaches in the western front happening nor Paris failing for me either the war end in a negotiated peace after a stalemate or the allied defeat a exhausted Germany in a 1919 offensive .

Agree .

That or the possibility they continu the war seeing how the blockade is harming the central power .

Yes the entente will need some luck but I wan still them winning . Also what would happen in the Balkan front in this timeline ? And how the war in Irak and Palestine is affected by the ottoman doing better in the Caucasus ? Also a thing more likely to happen in TTL is separate peace

Basically nothing much other than Bulgaria being larger. Serbia is pretty much left for death unless the Entente wins.

I can't tell how it will end up. The Ottoman Government will likely try to send more men to Iraq and Palestine to repel British attacks and/or confine the British far deeper South in Iraq.

If the UK and France are both out of war it is likely the Ottomans keep the British occupied land, maybe even get Cyprus back. If the British are out on their own term they will likely keep Cyprus will moving out of Palestine and try to negotiate for Southern Iraq. But that depends on how willing the Germans are to keep or lose those lands. If the Ottomans lose that they will try to look away with parts of Russian Caucasus being annexed by the Ottomans.

 

[Osman Aga]

"Relocation attempt to Syria", "Armenian insurgency"...

To be clear, you mean the Armenian genocide?

To be clear: No I do not mean the Armenian Genocide.

 

[Jozon]

To be clear: No I do not mean the Armenian Genocide.

So your answer to the OP's question of "What effect does this have on the Armenian genocide?" is to start talking about an "Armenian insurgency", a term typically used by people who deny the genocide ever took place? That is suspicious to say the least.

Still, far be it from me to call you a genocide denier on the basis of what you don't say.

So let me ask you, do you use the term "Armenian insurgency" because you deny the Armenian genocide happened? And a follow-up in case the answer is no: Do you believe the Armenian genocide is historical fact?

 

[Osman Aga]

So your answer to the OP's question of "what effect does this have in the Armenian genocide" is to start talking about an "Armenian insurgency", a term typically used by people who deny the genocide ever took place? That is suspicious to say the least.

Still, far be it from me to call you a genocide denier on the basis of what you don't say.

So let me ask you, do you use the term "Armenian insurgency" because you deny the Armenian genocide happened? And a follow-up in case the answer is no: Do you believe the Armenian genocide is historical fact?

Well what do you call the armed occupation of Van in 1915 if not insurgency? Peaceful power delegation by the Ottoman Authorities to Ottoman-Armenian Citizens? That is one way to see it.

I'll keep it short. I accept that Armenians died, a lot of them. I also accept that the Ottomans did little to protect them. But I deny that there was a systematic extermimation attempt FOR (read it good) an ethnically pure State. The East Anatolian Armenians supported Russian occupation, delivered a whole town like Van by Armenian insurgents to the enemy of a State. The result was a poor attempt to relocate many to Syria, away from the front. Nowadays we have Turkey with 80,000 Armenians who are citizens of Turkey, in Turkey another estimated 100,000 illegally from Armenia working in Turkey. Then we have Armenia with no Turks or Kurdish Muslims at all since 1988, and Karabakh with none since 1994. Makes you wonder who wanted to exterminate who...

If this answer does not satisfy you then I would recommend asking @CalBear @Burton K Wheeler or even Ian to look at it.

 

[Zincvit]

Well what do you call the armed occupation of Van in 1915 if not insurgency? Peaceful power delegation by the Ottoman Authorities to Ottoman-Armenian Citizens? That is one way to see it.

I'll keep it short. I accept that Armenians died, a lot of them. I also accept that the Ottomans did little to protect them. But I deny that there was a systematic extermimation attempt FOR (read it good) an ethnically pure State. The East Anatolian Armenians supported Russian occupation, delivered a whole town like Van by Armenian insurgents to the enemy of a State. The result was a poor attempt to relocate many to Syria, away from the front. Nowadays we have Turkey with 80,000 Armenians who are citizens of Turkey, in Turkey another estimated 100,000 illegally from Armenia working in Turkey. Then we have Armenia with no Turks or Kurdish Muslims at all since 1988, and Karabakh with none since 1994. Makes you wonder who wanted to exterminate who...

If this answer does not satisfy you then I would recommend asking @CalBear @Burton K Wheeler or even Ian to look at it.

Dude.....

 

[Osman Aga]

Dude.....

The last paragraph also applies to you (and anyone who felt offended).