What if the PLC was partitioned during the 17th century 'Deluge' instead of reconstituted?

[raharris1973]

Here's a potential map of how it might have gone down:

https://imgur.com/a/soLxlPb

Here's a couple descriptions:

GauchoBadger:

The Deluge in Poland and Lithuania, which was a crisis period extending from the early 1650's to the early 1660's, saw the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be invaded on all sides by Sweden, Russia, the Cossacks, Brandenburg (to a small extent), and the Duke of Transylvania. There were also some Lithuanian separatists. Some well-timed tactical victories by Poland and distractions by the occupying powers (such as Sweden getting embroiled in a war with Denmark in the middle of it) saved the Commonwealth from utter collapse.
But what if the Commonwealth was destroyed during this time period, and partitioned by these invading powers? How likely was this?
The Treaty of Radnot (1656), for reference, allocated:
-Ducal Prussia, Masovia, Samogitia, and Inflanty (Livonia) to Sweden
-Greater Poland to Brandenburg
-Lithuania as a Swedish vassal (which could foment future conflicts with Russia) -Podolia and Volhynia to the Cossacks
-Lesser Poland to the Transylvanian Duke, George II Rakoczi
What would have been the effects of an earlier "partition of the white eagle"?

Jurgen:
Ducal Prussia would become a Swedish Vassal but still under the rule of the Hohenzollern, Brandenburg would also receive Ermland (which would be integrated into Ducal Prussia).
I suspect that the Swedes would annex Royal Prussia (the Polish Corridor).

 

[Assouf]

I'd be most interested to see if this larger foothold makes Sweden's presence on the continent proper more permanent. Or, on the other hand, do these gains in the Commonwealth just get taken by the Russians too?

 

[Nivek]

Brandenburg would become a dual German polish state and swedish could colonize the Baltic

 

[OxSpace]

The Treaty of Radnot did not allocate the complete dismemberment of Poland; more specifically, the Nowogródek Voivodeship would come under the direct control of the Radziwiłł estates. So I guess the Poles have a funny little rump state. Here's an accurate map of the territorial deposition:

 

[raharris1973]

The Treaty of Radnot did not allocate the complete dismemberment of Poland; more specifically, the Nowogródek Voivodeship would come under the direct control of the Radziwiłł estates. So I guess the Poles have a funny little rump state. Here's an accurate map of the territorial deposition:
View attachment 806437

Thanks @OxSpace. That map was a great find! Where did you get it? It appears what is left independent is two rump states for different Radziwill family members, that are technically in the Lithuanian portion of the PLC. The Radziwill boys - Lords of the Pripet Marshes! Interesting that the Brandenburgers' gains in Great Poland Grosspolen still don't get them territorial continuity with East Prussia/OstPreussen.

Also remarkable how the Transylvanians, technically vassals of the Ottoman Sultans, seemed to be running an independent foreign policy, complete with invasions of Lesser Poland Malapolska and up to Lublin. Presume the Turkish wars at the end of the century go in a broadly similar direction to OTL, perhaps the Habsburgs inherit this all, or at least suzerainty of Transylvania and its Polish sphere.

The Treaty of Radnot, as shown here, still seems like a near complete partition of the PLC, reducing it to the Pripet marshes, southern Belarus country. So was this signed by dignitaries by all signed shown to benefit? Sweden, Brandenburg, Transylvania, Cossacks? Because to some extent, the lines drawn on the eastern half of the map seem to defy military and alliance reality from around that time. There is no zone allocated to Muscovite Russia, but in the 1655-56 timeframe, Russian armies, in cooperation with Cossack hosts, were occupying as far west as Lwow and Vilnius, so basically that Lithuanian zone in Belarus that is shown in orange as being in personal union with Sweden, that Cossack zone, and the Radziwill strips. Meanwhile, what I've seen about maximum extent of Swedish occupation never showed them occupying any of the organge Lithuanian (Belarus) area. Russia seemed dealt out of Radnot and ignored, but like there was maybe a rogue Cossack negotiator there, or like the western powers were trying to throw Cossacks a bone (a big one!) to get them to defect from Moscow.

 

[Jürgen]

I would suggest one of the POD would be Frederik III of Denmark dying in 1655 after having gotten his 9 year son elected heir. This would put Denmark under a regency council and keep it from joining the war. While Denmark lost in the end this remove a distraction for Sweden.

 

[OxSpace]

Where did you get it?

I found it on wikipedia, I saw other maps but they incorrectly give Belarus to Muscovy/Russia -- which was never stipulated in the treaty.

Interesting that the Brandenburgers' gains in Great Poland Grosspolen still don't get them territorial continuity with East Prussia/OstPreussen.

If I had to guess it's because Prussia is a fief of Sweden, so the corridor isn't a priority.

So was this signed by dignitaries by all signed shown to benefit? Sweden, Brandenburg, Transylvania, Cossacks?

Cossacks weren't present, but they allocated territory for them in a future provision.

Russian armies, in cooperation with Cossack hosts, were occupying as far west as Lwow and Vilnius, so basically that Lithuanian zone in Belarus that is shown in orange as being in personal union with Sweden, that Cossack zone, and the Radziwill strips. Meanwhile, what I've seen about maximum extent of Swedish occupation never showed them occupying any of the organge Lithuanian (Belarus) area.

The question of Russian intervention is of its own problem, because the Second Northern War and the Russo-Polish war are separate. As for Lithuania, it's because it too became a Swedish fief.

 

[raharris1973]

I found it on wikipedia, I saw other maps but they incorrectly give Belarus to Muscovy/Russia -- which was never stipulated in the treaty.

I figured it out - it is not on English-language wikipedia, but is on French language wikipedia for the Radnot Treaty.

 

[Ogrelord420]

Also remarkable how the Transylvanians, technically vassals of the Ottoman Sultans, seemed to be running an independent foreign policy, complete with invasions of Lesser Poland Malapolska and up to Lublin.

They didn’t, which was why George II Rákóczi later had to face an Ottoman incursion and disposal as he didn’t ask Mehmed IV’s approval to invade Poland. I wonder if a stronger and better allied Transylvania would have sparked the Great Turkish War 20 years sooner

 

[DJ03]

The Treaty of Radnot did not allocate the complete dismemberment of Poland; more specifically, the Nowogródek Voivodeship would come under the direct control of the Radziwiłł estates. So I guess the Poles have a funny little rump state. Here's an accurate map of the territorial deposition:
View attachment 806437

Could the Radziwiłł (e)states be the core for a new, possibly more centralized, kingdom?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@Jan Olbracht @Zygmunt Stary @marcinL

 

[Atterdag]

How sustainable would this partition be? Sweden was never that succesful in controlling large swathes of inland territory, and the Transilvanian zone is bisectioned by the Carpathian.