What if Kaesong remained under South Korea and impact on Frontline defence?

[swordartmanker&73]

In late 1951, the ROK and the US military forces, as well several regiments of UN forces, dislodged the main North Korean communists troops at southern Gaeseong (Kaesong) after the Chinese PVA forces miscalculated the frontline main valley and the hills sensitivity protective areas. The South Korean army groups managed to regained much of the entire ruined small city of Gaeseong after some North Korean soldiers and colonels fled to Ryesong River (the border between Kaesong and Hwanghae Province).

How would Seoul and northern Gyeonggi (Kaesong) look like in modern times had the city of Gaeseong and northern valley areas near North Korea border remained under South Korean jurisdiction? What about the THAAD missile system and the border control area look like north of Kaesong?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

In late 1951, the ROK and the US military forces, as well several regiments of UN forces, dislodged the main North Korean communists troops at southern Gaeseong (Kaesong) after the Chinese PVA forces miscalculated the frontline main valley and the hills sensitivity protective areas. The South Korean army groups managed to regained much of the entire ruined small city of Gaeseong after some North Korean soldiers and colonels fled to Ryesong River (the border between Kaesong and Hwanghae Province).

This is the PoD? The inquiry below seems to ask "WI [the above] happened?" but instead says "the city ... remained under South Korean jurisdiction". That wording implies special legal status for the area OTL, not that it was held by the DPRK.

You need to flag the first para as the prequel, and refer to control, not "jurisdiction".

How would Seoul and northern Gyeonggi (Kaesong) look like in modern times had the city of Gaeseong and northern valley areas near North Korea border remained under South Korean jurisdiction? What about the THAAD missile system and the border control area look like north of Kaesong?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Hope this isn't a @Lincoltonbro sockpuppet but I think the cultural effects would be significant. Kaesong was the capital of Korea at one point so North Korea doesn't have a special city to be proud of. North Korea loses pride as it gains no land but loses a lot of land. As for economic effects, Kaesong is a major industrial city in North Korea so South Korea would be richer.

 

[swordartmanker&73]

but I think the cultural effects would be significant. Kaesong was the capital of Korea at one point so North Korea doesn't have a special city to be proud of. North Korea loses pride as it gains no land but loses a lot of land. As for economic effects, Kaesong is a major industrial city in North Korea so South Korea would be richer.

I think Kaesong, South Korea preserves and build the ancient artifacts, tombs, and historical figures in a touristic spot at the central area in modern times. But still There could be a limited opportunistic economic activity such as porcelain and historical “Gaeseong” shops.

 

[Remitonov]

Largely the same as the rest of South Korea IOTL, really. South Korea didn't bomb Kaesong to kingdom come at the time mainly because it was a South Korean city that they were hoping to liberate. So, when North Korea retained control of the city after the ceasefire, there wasn't a need to rebuild everything with gaudy Soviet-style apartment blocks. Kaesong under South Korea would just look a lot like other South Korean cities like Seoul, Busan or Incheon. Nothing too major, save for denying the Kim dynasty a few extra world heritage sites to harp over.

 

[Tales Weaver]

Largely the same as the rest of South Korea IOTL, really. South Korea didn't bomb Kaesong to kingdom come at the time mainly because it was a South Korean city that they were hoping to liberate. So, when North Korea retained control of the city since the ceasefire, there wasn't a need to rebuild everything with gaudy Soviet-style apartment blocks. Kaesong under South Korea would just look a lot like other South Korean cities like Seoul, Busan or Incheon. Nothing too major, save for denying the Kim dynasty a few extra world heritage sites to harp over.

the factor is that Kaesong, if South Korea took it, will lie within Civilian Control Line due to being very close to North Korea. I don't think it will look like other South Korean cities. rather, it would be pretty abandoned.

 

[Remitonov]

the factor is that Kaesong, if South Korea took it, will lie within Civilian Control Line due to being very close to North Korea. I don't think it will look like other South Korean cities. rather, it would be pretty abandoned.

Depends on how far north the frontline gets pushed (I assumed far enough that the city avoids falling on the Civilian Control Line), but Kaesong turning into a ghost city is quite a high possibility.

 

[swordartmanker&73]

Map of slight large South Korea with Kaesong under the CCL of ROK due to unsuitable growth as the small military city located extremely near the risky northern land border of North Korea.

-In early 1952, the Soviet military advisors suggested the North Korean forces to give up the further attempts the quest of retention the city of Kaesong. A New commander, Matthew Ridgway, announced it would not launch further offensive attacks to strengthen toward Ryesong River (attempting to capture Pyongsan at north of Ryesong River). As a token of gratitude, the Soviet, Swedish, Swiss, and the Indian recommended both sides, North Korean and South Korean military representatives, to open the negotiation dialogue at neutral site of Kumchon to discuss about potential ceasefire and armistice. North Korean commanders lost the totally military manpower to recapture Gaeseong. Under persuasion by Stalin (who was frustrated for Chinese forces to give up Gaeseong), Kim II-Sung accepts several compromises to avert the further massive destruction of half-ruined Kaesong. After the armistice signed on April 1953, Kim II-Sung told the Supreme Assembly that the city of Kaesong, located at South Korea, would remain tranquility without full provocation on small military bombing as South Korea decided a strict limited civilians access at Kaesong. He wished to reunify peacefully entire Southern Peninsula with the accommodating ideological on both sides. Both North and South Korea claim the city of Kaesong and it should be safeguard the historical sensitive important areas.

Alternatively, the Joint Security Area of both Koreas probably located 500-2000 metres east of Ryesong River.

After the Korean War concluded armistice, South Korean government designated Gaeseong as a protectorate military urban administration, leaving no stone untouched with the prominent smaller civilian populations. North Korea’s side wondered a perseverance of the palace under Southern hands. It would be another 35-40 years to reopen the minor urban development at the small military city of Gaeseong. Still, the main risk faced toward the north where the North Korean artillery, made by the Soviet, (north of MDL) would easily strike the distanced targeted of “historical” city of Gaeseong due to proximity distance from DMZ to small urbanisation military city.

 

[swordartmanker&73]

1987: the Meeting between South Korean Diplomats and Chinese Diplomats in Tokyo, Japan in the perspective on Gaeseong, South Korea

-In 1987, the South Korean representatives and the Chinese representatives meet each other at the capital of Tokyo, Japan to discuss about revitalised small city of Gaeseong. The Vice Chinese Foreign Minister reminded the delighted perseverance small city of Gaeseong compared as “Kinmen Island” (the communists incapable to captured the ROC (Taiwan) offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu) when one day the richly and high-loyalty North Korean officials envisioning to visit to the technical small-populated city of Gaeseong. The South Korean representatives gladly compliments the recommendation from the Chinese side to open the pathway to the pinnacle of historical city of Gaeseong, but it would be too far away with the security protocols to ensure the safety and integrity of the North Korean representatives to respect the South Korean’s culture. The diplomatic meeting took place at Tokyo since it would be unpleasant controversial for allowing Vice Chinese Foreign Minister to have open meeting at Seoul (South Korea maintained the diplomatic relationship with legitimate Republic of China (Taiwan) before 1992.) Opening the border access at Kumchon for only North Korean top representatives and possibly handpicked loyalty NK tourists (approved by SK Unification Ministry) only at Gaeseond considerated a little good signs on thawing relations between North and South Korea even though North and South Korea technically still at war with no official peace treaty.

 

[swordartmanker&73]

In 2006, the United Nations representatives and ASEAN intergovernmental organization suggested the cold-hearted “sensitive” city of Gaeseong to be place under the UN Interim Administration as North Korean military tension arises near the border at Kaesong. Any ice-breaking approval from both sides of North and South Korean representatives should be meet face to face at third country, such as Singapore and China, to discuss the terms of United Nation administration of Gaeseong since North Korea claimed the vigilant small military city of Gaeseong was part of South Hwanghae Province.
What do you think proposal for Kaesong’s UN administration with the exchanges of terms under North Korea?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

In 2006, the United Nations representatives and ASEAN intergovernmental organization suggested the cold-hearted “sensitive” city of Gaeseong to be place under the UN Interim Administration as North Korean military tension arises near the border at Kaesong. Any ice-breaking approval from both sides of North and South Korean representatives should be meet face to face at third country, such as Singapore and China, to discuss the terms of United Nation administration of Gaeseong since North Korea claimed the vigilant small military city of Gaeseong was part of South Hwanghae Province.
What do you think proposal for Kaesong’s UN administration with the exchanges of terms under North Korea?

I think this and the map was when it became obvious it was Lincoltonbro, especially when he started mentioning the UN. I mean Argentina, Spain, Westen Sahara, India, China, ect has land claims and you don't see UN intervention for the Falkland Islands...

 

[Remitonov]

I think this and the map was when it became obvious it was Lincoltonbro, especially when he started mentioning the UN. I mean Argentina, Spain, Westen Sahara, India, China, ect has land claims and you don't see UN intervention for the Falkland Islands...

I don't understand why they just don't take the simplest route and have UN forces do better in the Korean War. It doesn't need to be convoluted.

 

[rfmcdonald]

South Korea will be a bit larger, North Korea a bit smaller.

The biggest difference is that a ROK Kaesong will buffer Seoul, which may no longer be in range of DPRK artillery.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

I don't understand why they just don't take the simplest route and have UN forces do better in the Korean War. It doesn't need to be convoluted.

I think OP thinks the UN is like NATO, which it is not. The UN is an international organization intended for diplomacy while NATO is a military organization.

 

[Rickeyroll34]

South Korea will be a bit larger, North Korea a bit smaller.

The biggest difference is that a ROK Kaesong will buffer Seoul, which may no longer be in range of DPRK artillery.

Like I told you, one of the user, Tales Weaver, preferred Kaesong as a “buffer zone” within the Civilian Control Line (CCL) outlooking the sporadic limited farming and industrial economy. Their monthly incomes at Kaesong would be slightly below South Korea national average monthly incomes of US$3,000.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Like I told you, one of the user, Tales Weaver, preferred Kaesong as a “buffer zone” within the Civilian Control Line (CCL) outlooking the sporadic limited farming and industrial economy. Their monthly incomes at Kaesong would be slightly below South Korea national average monthly incomes of US$3,000.

Sure. I think that the strategic effects of a Seoul outside of artillery range may be bigger. Might the ROK be perhaps more willing to risk war?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Like I told you, one of the user, Tales Weaver, preferred Kaesong as a “buffer zone” within the Civilian Control Line (CCL) outlooking the sporadic limited farming and industrial economy. Their monthly incomes at Kaesong would be slightly below South Korea national average monthly incomes of US$3,000.

"Like I told you" You written this as past tense even though you joined this site 3 hours ago and this is literally your third post. Based on what you written, you sound like you were already an existing user on this site and this account is your sockpuppet. Wouldn't be surprised if you're Lincoltonbro.

Reported.