Spanish Florida could become a tourism Mecca, albeit probably not to the same extent as OTL's U.S. state of Florida. As for an independent Spanish Texas (or Tejas), the oil would help, assuming they handle it prudently. I suspect Spanish Louisiana north of the Missour River at the very least is going to be seized by the British sooner or later, and the Brits taking California (or at least part of it) is also very possible (I think they'll end up getting Cascadia over the Spanish and Russians).
I agree that they would take north of the Missouri River, but not that they would take a bit of California. I think that with the acquired territory it could be more difficult to populate the Oregon territory.
In any case, in this story, it seems that Spain will be better than in otl and for some reason they lose territory in South America, they could redouble their intention in North America and probably reform.
 
From what I can tell, Texas would be like the OTL Republic of Texas, being a majority Anglo, somewhat-Hispanic republic in the Southwest, although that might be a little too much foresight for this TL. Also, I'd like to point out that any Spanish Texas would be called "Texas", as "Tejas" fell out of favor before the later 18th century
I do not see how that is possible, all the southern nations could become Brazil or South Africa and even outside Mexico with which they will face they would not have the same luck as in otl either because Mexico is more stable or because they cannot compete to colonize the area by not having too large a population.
 
I do not see how that is possible, all the southern nations could become Brazil or South Africa and even outside Mexico with which they will face they would not have the same luck as in otl either because Mexico is more stable or because they cannot compete to colonize the area by not having too large a population.
In older iterations of Winds of Iron/Ventis Ferrum, Mexico still goes through the same troubles it faced IOTL, and even though because the US is dissolved, it didn't stop the Anglo-Americans from traveling west (which they always seem to have a passion for in this time period). In the last version of the TL (which this iteration seems to be an improvement on), the Spanish still open up settlement in Texas to Anglo-Americans, too, with Mexico continuing that. Louisiana was also quick to push along the Anglo-American settlers passing through into Texas, and by extension, Mexico
 
In older iterations of Winds of Iron/Ventis Ferrum, Mexico still goes through the same troubles it faced IOTL, and even though because the US is dissolved, it didn't stop the Anglo-Americans from traveling west (which they always seem to have a passion for in this time period). In the last version of the TL (which this iteration seems to be an improvement on), the Spanish still open up settlement in Texas to Anglo-Americans, too, with Mexico continuing that. Louisiana was also quick to push along the Anglo-American settlers passing through into Texas, and by extension, Mexico
Yes, but you also forget about Spain, if it goes better and stays with at least New Spain or at least its northernmost part. Anglo-Saxon Texas is murdered in the cradle.
Even Mexico could fare better from its independence and Texas could stay.
 
Yes, but you also forget about Spain, if it goes better and stays with at least New Spain or at least its northernmost part. Anglo-Saxon Texas is murdered in the cradle.
Even Mexico could fare better from its independence and Texas could stay.
Spain still loses Mexico, tho, if the previous iteration and Drex's maps on DeviantArt are to be believed (again, probably too much foresight). And as per OTL (somewhat), Mexico still goes through troubles in the 1830s and 1840s, leading to Texas, California, Sonora, Rio Grande, Central America, and the Yucatan splitting off from Mexico
 
Also, I'd like to point out that any Spanish Texas would be called "Texas", as "Tejas" fell out of favor before the later 18th century
Regarding this, prior to the Spanish spelling reform of 1815, X was used for words that either had a /j/ or a /sh/ sound (Spanish lost /sh/ in the 16th century). That reform stated that all words with x but pronounced like /j/ were to be written with j. However, when Mexico declared independence in 1821, it refused to acknowledge those changes for identity reasons, and thus Mexico kept its X and so did Texas. We're prior to that in the TL, but I doubt that reform is going to be butterflied away.

About the future of Mexico, Texas and Louisiana, as has been previously stated, the previous version of the TL and the maps I posted here or in my DA are the closest things to canon, unless this new version changes stuff. Which it will, starting with a Mexico with no crown instead of the OTL-ish Mexican Empire of the original TL.
 
Spanish Florida could become a tourism Mecca, albeit probably not to the same extent as OTL's U.S. state of Florida. As for an independent Spanish Texas (or Tejas), the oil would help, assuming they handle it prudently. I suspect Spanish Louisiana north of the Missour River at the very least is going to be seized by the British sooner or later, and the Brits taking California (or at least part of it) is also very possible (I think they'll end up getting Cascadia over the Spanish and Russians).
Do expect Florida to be very close to Cuba in terms of culture and society.
 
Do expect Florida to be very close to Cuba in terms of culture and society.
Except Florida has a very small population and is directly connected to the rest of North America, so any early inmigrants, specially Angloamericans, are going to play a major role, much greater than in Cuba.
 
Chapter 20: The Rise of the Small Corporal
~ Chapter 20: The Rise of the Small Corporal ~

Despite the defeat of the Union of Atlantic States, it had done enough for the Franco-Spanish alliance, distracting the British fleet from launching further operations in the Mediterranean in 1798, with the French fleet commanded by François-Paul Brueys d’Aigalliers, departing Toulon on May 15 1798 without any opposition [1], as Nelson was still preparing a fleet in the Caribbean to deal with the new North American combatant. The fleet reached Malta after some complications, and then Alexandria on June 30 1798. Napoleon insisted that the harbour of Alexandria was too shallow for the big warships, so d’Aigalliers moved to Aboukir Bay expecting a British force to arrive, but as it did not the French expanded the harbour of Alexandria through the summer. The French conquest of Egypt was fast, with Napoleon marching his army through the desert to a location close to the Pyramids, obtaining a decisive victory there and capturing Cairo. The French force of 40,000 men then dispersed across Egypt, with Napoleon himself exploring the possibility of building a canal from the Nile to the Red Sea, before deciding to march north and conquer the Near East.

The British fleet finally appeared under Admiral Thomas Hardy in November after avoiding a Spanish fleet near Algeciras, however d’Aigalliers at the time was in Corfu, so Hardy ordered the Royal Navy to blockade French forts. By that time the French had consolidated their rule over Egypt after crushing a revolt in Cairo. D’Aigalliers ignored the presence of Harvey when he came back to Egypt and despite his fleet not being fully ready for combat he managed to repel the much smaller fraction of the Royal Navy blockading Alexandria on December 2. Napoleon was alarmed by this and told the admiral not to leave the port [2] and avoid new battles at all cost, trying to protect the fleet behind artillery pieces placed on the coast. Harvey then proceeded to attack nevertheless and defeated d’Aigalliers at the Second Battle of Alexandria 10 days later, with both forces taking heavy casualties, but effectively leaving Napoleon disconnected from France for the two months Harvey’s fleet was around Egypt before retreating.

During the next months and years, Napoleon would leave Egypt and head northwest, advancing through the Levantine coast and laying siege to Acre, capturing the city in April 1799. Napoleon opted to not push further north having taken heavy casualties, with the peak of French advance being at Tyre, retreating to Egypt from there. By that point the War of the Second Coalition had already started, with Austria, Naples, Portugal and Russia declaring war on the French Republic. Napoleon was alarmed by this and quickly departed Egypt for France leaving Desaix in charge [3], where the Republic had turned into what was essentially a military dictatorship, as the Directory relied on the army to enforce their decrees as the ruling faction did not have a majority in the legislature, and employing them to finance the war by pillaging conquered territories. Napoleon arrived in France in June of 1799 to a hero’s welcome and a cold meeting by the Directory, which considered accusing him of desertion for abandoning Egypt, but didn’t as it would cause their government to collapse. Napoleon drew an alliance with men such as Sièyes, Talleyrand and his brother Lucien, and toppled the Directory by launching a coup d’état of the 14th of Vendémiaire (October 5).

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The Coup of the Fourteenth of Vendémiaire

When Napoleon landed in France, the Republic was in a delicate position, with its armies recently defeated at Stockach and Magnano, with the Russians under Suvorov liberating Milan. By October, Suvorov had pushed to the Alps, virtually expelling the French from Italy after the battles of Trebbia and Novi, then marching north to Switzerland, where Masséna had recently reverted French odds of victory at the Second Battle of Zurich. The French needed victories now, especially as a new economic crisis was brewing after the plentiful harvest of 1798, with 1799 being a worse year if mostly by the highly deflated French Mandats, leading to poverty, lower wages, a drop in investment and unemployment.

The new government of France organised itself as a Consulate, initially led by First Consul Napoleon Bonaparte, Second Consul Emmanuel Joseph Sièyes and Third Consul Roger Ducos, albeit the latter two would be replaced in November by Cambacérès and Lebrun respectively. Political stability was returned to France under the Constitution of the Year VIII, which was ratified by referendum in February of 1800, passing with the support of the 99.9% of the voters [4]. In Egypt, Desaix was blockaded by the Royal Navy under Nelson in 1800 while the Ottomans and Egyptians were building a large army as Cairo had risen up against the French again. Desaix launched an attack before the Ottomans had organised and defeated them at Al Qanatir, entering Cairo and punishing the city’s second attempt at an uprising. The rest of the year in Egypt would consist on Desaix repelling Ottoman advances with ever increasing scarcity of ammunition and gunpowder, eventually reaching an agreement with Nelson at the Convention of Alexandria, allowing the French forces an honourable surrender and a secure return to France, leaving behind all their equipment, including a stone with some carvings on it [5].

France had better luck in Europe in 1800, with Moreau smashing the Austro-Russian army at Hohenlinden, and Napoleon himself crossing the Saint Bernard pass in order to lift the Austrian siege of Genoa, and after losing to the Austrians at Marengo [6] thanks to the actions of Johann Frimont’s troops that destroyed the consular infantry, managed to outflank the Austrian commander Von Melas and defeated the Austrians at Castelletto on June 17 1800, scoring a pyrrhic victory, but a victory nonetheless. Napoleon returned to France with the Austrian army retreating to the Mincio, leaving Guillaume Brune in charge of the Army of Italy.

Castelletto.jpg

The Battle of Castelletto

The Austrians would abandon the coalition after Castelletto, not having much interest in continuing a conflict that would grant them nothing. By the Treaty of Lunéville, the French annexation of the west bank of the Rhine was universally recognised [7]. The borders of Campo Formio were reinforced, with the independence of the Subalpine, Ligurian, Helvetic, and Cisalpine Republics recognised by both sides, albeit France would annex the Subalpine Republic in 1802. The only major territorial change in Italy was in Tuscany in the subsequent Treaty of Aranjuez, where Ferdinand III, the Habsburg Grand Duke of Tuscany, was removed from the throne and given the title of Elector of Salzburg [8]. Ferdinand of Parma gave his duchy to France after his death in 1802, with the French also gaining the State of the Presidi. The Principality of Piombino and the Grand Duchy of Tuscany were merged into the Kingdom of Etruria and it was awarded to Louis, son of the Duke of Parma, who had ties to the Spanish royal family. In exchange, Spain gave Louisiana back to France. Russia left the war shortly after, leaving only Britain fighting against the Franco-Spanish alliance, which now included Denmark after Admiral Hyde Parker bombed Copenhaguen in 1801.

Feeling that victory was in his hand, Napoleon decided to send a fleet to attempt to recapture India in March of 1801 commanded by Étienne Bruix. The fleet departed Toulon after having travelled there for safety [9], and encountered the allied fleet of the Spanish commander Federico Gravina at Algeciras, setting sail for India in July after some reparations were made and other naval engagements had attracted the attention of the Royal Navy elsewhere. The major obstacle was passing through the British-occupied Cape Colony, but Bruix was lucky to avoid the British fleet, however the fleet was running low on supplies when they reached Isle de France in October. The island was controlled by Dupleix’s royalists, and the Republican fleet shelled the harbour, landed troops and pillaged anything of value before resuming to India.

Bruix’s luck would run out when he finally reached the southern tip of India near Tranquebar, encountering an Anglo-Royalist fleet off port. The Republican fleet had nine ships of the line plus three Spanish ships, while the British had eight and the Royalists had only two that had switched sides early on in the war. Initially the Hispano-Republican fleet had the advantage, but Suffren, leading the fleet, decided to attack after discussing it with Sir Charles Adam, as Suffren knew the exact weaknesses of the French fleet. Bruix decided to push believing his numerical superiority would do the trick, ignoring Gravina’s advice to not divide the fleet too much and expose the fleet’s flank. Tranquebar was a disaster for the Republican Navy, losing three ships of the line and their attempted reconquest of India completely foiled. For the Spanish it was also a harsh defeat, and Gravina would develop a hate for French admirals after this campaign. For the Royalists, Tranquebar solidified their control over India, and served as propaganda back in the mainland, where conspirators were plotting to restore Louis XVIII to the throne. The war would wind down from there, and Great Britain finally agreed to a temporary peace at Amiens.

Tranquebar.jpg

(Republican) French and British vessels fighting at Tranquebar

[1] - IOTL the fleet set sail on May 19, and Nelson had arrived in Toulon days before, but on May 17 a strong gale dispersed the Royal Navy, giving d’Aigalliers a chance to set sail.

[2] - Correctly assuming that the Royal Navy would have a detachment further east.

[3] - Kléber is more active in French politics and as of now is leading the Rhine Front. Remember that Hoche was made prisoner in Ireland.

[4] - OTL figures. Or at least that’s what the released results say.

[5] - And thus the Rosetta Stone has been lost ITTL.

[6] - Napoleon lost the battle in the morning and afternoon, but a French counterattack assisted by Desaix’s reinforcements tipped the battle later. ITTL a different French commander does not arrive in time and Napoleon retreats.

[7] - No Cisrhenian Republic ITTL either, being another of Hoche’s creations.

[8] - Replacing the Prince-Archbishopric of Salzburg from 1803 onwards.

[9] - The Royal Navy struggles to keep a Mediterranean presence without the Spanish fleet bottled up in Cádiz and fighting a larger French fleet.
 
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Again not much is changing asides from some stuff here and there but butterflies won't be that big. Yet, just curious to where it'll end up with those small changes maybe altering something major
 
Quite a comeback for Pichegru?
That happened IOTL and Pichegru requested his resignation to the Directory. He then regained fame by becoming a charismatic royalist politican to the point that in 1797 he entered the Council of Five Hundred as the royalist leader.

As a spoiler, Pichegru is going to make a second comeback like that one in this timeline.
 
Chapter 21: The Emperor and the Fool
~ Chapter 21: The Emperor and the Fool ~

The Treaty of Amiens put an end to the Revolutionary Wars and restored peace in Europe. The French block now comprised France, its sister republics, and Spain; overall controlling most of western Europe. Further east, Poland had been partitioned for the third and final time, and Britain’s only secure ally on the continent was now Portugal, albeit their neutrality in the War of the Second Coalition made them a bit unreliable [1]. With peace, relations between Britain and France normalised. British artists and enthusiasts flocked to Paris to contemplate the wonders of the Louvre, and French balloonists such as André-Jacques Garnerin staged displays in London. France and Spain were allies of convenience, both having a mutual distrust of the British, but both forms of government seemed irreconcilable, albeit the tacit alliance maintained itself through the early 1800’s [2].

However cracks soon appeared in the Peace Treaty. Britain refused to abandon Malta, Napoleon violated the independence of the Helvetic Republic by forcing the Act of Mediation upon them on February 1803, bringing an end to the “Stecklikrieg”, with Napoleon abolishing the Helvetic Republic and restoring the Swiss Confederacy, at least on paper. In Italy, Napoleon forced the Cisalpine Republic to recognise him as president, turning it de facto into a French territory. France also tried to reassert its rule over Haiti, but Leclerc’s expedition turned out to be a disaster as the army was dispatched to combat rebels, not yellow fever, and on January 1 1804 Jean-Jacques Dessalines proclaimed Haiti as an independent republic, ordering a massacre of the remaining whites. A meeting of the British ambassador with Napoleon in February of 1803 ended in the First Consul threatening war unless Britain retreated from Malta. Napoleon was surprised when it was the British who broke the Treaty of Amiens by declaring war on France in May 18, with Napoleon quickly conquering British Hannover.

Direct war was not the only way Britain hoped to topple the French Republic, as the regime had plenty of enemies abroad, including parts of the French Empire that had been in open rebellion against the Republic for almost a decade. Many in the French military hated Napoleon, including figures such as Jean Moreau (the victor of Hohenlinden), Jean-Charles Pichegru, Georges Cadoudal or Lazare Hoche, albeit this last one was a convinced republican, and refused to partake in any plans to restore the Bourbons. Cadoudal, a hardcore Breton royalist, wanted to see Napoleon gone, as he was responsible for the murder of a friend and his own brother, Julien Cadoudal. The plot members also contacted Dupleix and the FEIC. However, the plot was foiled by its very disorganised nature and it was discovered by the French government, with Moreau leaving through the Pyrenees, and Pichegru narrowly avoiding capture [3], with most of the members of the plot avoiding capture or leaving prison at a later date and heading for India. This failure to completely subdue the plot caused Napoleon to dismiss Joseph Fouché as Minister of Police, ironically replacing him by an even more incompetent individual.

Jean-Charles_Pichegru2.jpg

Jean-Charles Pichegru, a notable Royalist and future commander of the Royalist Army of Spain

Royalist elements would coalesce in the lands of the French East India Company, forming a core of highly skilled officers, albeit they lacked troops to build an effective army, relying mostly on Indian recruits until later in the war. Suffren then ordered the fleet to sail along with the Royal Navy to French Guyana, where they overwhelmed the scarce Republican garrison with help from the local exiles, including many Royalists. The Anglo-Royalist fleet focused on conquering the Caribbean, albeit attacks against Spanish positions would be rare, with Napoleon then deciding that the only way to win the war would be invading Great Britain. In order to remove potential threats, and following Talleyrand’s advice, Napoleon violated the neutrality of Baden and kidnapped the Duke of Enghien (the last of the house of Bourbon-Condé), ordering his execution on March 21 1804. The execution of Enghien had the opposite effect, shocking the Tsar of Russia and inspiring fear in the Austrians, while Napoleon took the chance and crowned himself Emperor on December 2 1804. A while later, the Austrian Archduke did the same, abolishing the Holy Roman Empire in the process and creating the Austrian Empire.

Napoleon would devise a series of plans in order to seize at least temporary control of the English Channel in order to land his forces, but a series of unfortunate events would prevent any of them from bearing substantial fruit until 1805 [4]. On March, Ganteaume’s Atlantic fleet was to depart Brest and sail to Martinique to meet with Missiessy’s fleet, followed soon after by Villeneuve’s Mediterranean fleet along with a Spanish contingent, for a grand total of 36 ships of the line that then would sail back across the Atlantic and clear the English channel. The plan was foiled immediately when Ganteaume’s fleet got trapped at Brest by Vice-Admiral Cotton, attempting a sortie on March 26 under the cover of fog, but winds changed suddenly and the fleet was detected and bottled up yet again. Villeneuve had more luck, avoiding Nelson’s trap between Sardinia and Mallorca thanks to a Spanish merchant, sailing west of the Balearics. The Spanish fleet refused to join him at Cartagena until orders arrived, and Federico Gravina only agreed when direct orders from the king told him that his fleet was to set sail with the French.

The Franco-Spanish fleet reached the Caribbean, with their only relevant action being the Battle of Diamond Rock, and when they received news of Nelson’s fleet in the vicinity, Villeneuve opted to sail back to France, having pretty much wasted three months of campaigns without taking any island. Villeneuve encountered Robert Calder’s fleet at Finisterre and was defeated, with the frigate Didon captured, which was tasked with delivering orders to Allemand’s “Escadre Invisible”. Villeneuve continued to Brest but on August 15 he mistook three British ships with the vanguard of the Royal Navy and sailed south. By this point, Gravina was fed up with the French Admiral’s incompetency after Calder captured two of his ships that Villeneuve had exposed, and having had enough of the French after Tranquebar, he withdrew his fleet to Ferrol and refused to come out, thus letting Villeneuve head south alone [5]. When Napoleon heard of Villeneuve’s decision to sail south he raged and exclaimed “What a Navy! What an admiral! All those sacrifices for nought!”

Trafalgar.jpg

The Battle of Trafalgar, Nelson's greatest victory

Gravina would sit the rest of the year at Ferrol, avoiding the British fleet. Villeneuve would not be so lucky and his fleet of 21 ships [6] was trapped at Cádiz by the British. In mid-October he got news that he was about to be replaced Vice-Admiral François Étienne de Rosily-Mesros, and Villeneuve decided to set sail before his replacement could arrive. However, the French fleet was terribly disorganised and it took the fleet two days to set sail. However, by that time Admiral Nelson had arrived, and despite Villeneuve ordering the fleet to turn back to Cádiz, he was intercepted off Cape Trafalgar. Nelson devised a plan, correctly assuming that Villeneuve would form a traditional line of battle, involving the fleet being divided into small squadrons that would pierce at single points of the line, thus focusing the attack on a point and hopefully destroying that section of the French fleet before the rest could come to the rescue. And that’s exactly what happened [7], as the French fleet was divided and Nelson got the pell-mell battle that he expected, sinking or capturing 12 French vessels, including Villeneuve’s flagship “Bucentaure”. The French fleet was scattered, with Nelson sailing to Gibraltar to recover and put the captured vessels in custody, while dispatching a small fleet under Strachan to pursue the French, with Strachan capturing a fraction of the French fleet under Le Pelley at Cape Ortegal.

Trafalgar was an unmitigated disaster for the French navy, losing most of the ships involved to limited British casualties. Gravina was initially court-martialed due to his desertion after Finisterre, but charges were revoked after Villeneuve’s foil at Trafalgar, however he was replaced as Commander in Chief. Nelson’s aura of glory was further incremented by his victory at Trafalgar, being received in London to a hero’s welcome. The French invasion of England would never materialise, and Napoleon’s “Armée d'Angleterre” turned east to face the new Austro-Russian threat.

[1] - No War of the Oranges ITTL, Portugal keeps Olivença.

[2] - The French do not throw off Trinidad in the Amiens negotiation as the British never take the island, plus Louisiana stays French, not hurting Spanish trade in the Mississippi.

[3] - He was captured IOTL and imprisoned, commiting suicide by strangling in the Temple Prison. Cadoudal was also captured and executed, with his last words being “And now, it's time to show to the Parisians how Christians, Royalists and Bretons die!” Moreau would be banished for partaking in the plot, eventually arriving in Georgia and assisting them with building a proper military.

[4] - I realise I have killed many butterflies with this.

[5] - IOTL both fleets sailed together to Trafalgar. Gravina was a personal friend of French Minister of the Navy Decrès, and was more of a francophile, but Villeneuve can be very infuriating.

[6] - A larger number than OTL’s 18 ships, but the Spanish fleet of 15 vessels is not there.

[7] - Specifics are different, the French line is shorter than IOTL so the battle space is tighter, the battle being more chaotic than its OTL counterpart.
 
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