To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

[nagachate]

I'm wondering where the Soviets could even go from here. Do they try to go into the Caucasus and fight the Ottomans?

I'd bet on that, the German and the Ottomans are increasingly splitting after the capture of Baku, to the point where the 'Ottoman Armistice' post mentions Germany agreed to let the Soviets seize Azerbaijan as long as Berlin gets a share of the oil. On top of that, the Ottomans have interests in the Mountanous Northern Caucasus Republic, which is currently at war with the Reds, not to mention many Pashas have Circassian heritage and would like to see their homeland freed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yusuf_Izzet_Pasha

 

[Crazyduck156]

I imaging getting the reds to accept Russia's war debts will be tricky to say the least but if it works it'll be a great boon to Britain

 

[Tom_B]

If the next update is about Italy it will hopefully address where Pope Benedict is and what he's doing.

 

[Gabingston]

If the next update is about Italy it will hopefully address where Pope Benedict is and what he's doing.

The fate of the Catholic Church in a Socialist Italy would be interesting. I wonder if we'll see anything like the Revolutionary Catholic Church from A Day In July if that happens.

 

[HangryBird]

Really depends if other socialist/communist revolutions succeedes in other countries. Which is why I'm interested in a Socialist Italy scenario. Will open up a lot of things.

I think socialist revolutions succeeding in other countries would make the Soviets lean toward being fine with alienating the Entente, assuming there isn't any infighting within the socialist movement. The Soviets would have allies of their own and would be less inclined to play nice with the Entente in order to play the Entente and Germans off of each other. Of course, the opposite would be true should said socialist revolutions fail.

However, this may be a moot point as I don't think the Entente and the Germans would allow a Socialist Italy right on their doorstep.

 

[Mayukh]

However, this may be a moot point as I don't think the Entente and the Germans would allow a Socialist Italy right on their doorstep.

So they are allowing a Socialist Russia?

 

[Kylia]

So they are allowing a Socialist Russia?

Russia is on the Fringe of Europe. Italy's right fucking there in the middle. Also Russia is... well, Russia. Invading Russia proper is almost always a losing proposition. (Unless you are the Mongols) Invading Italy used to be Europe's favorite pastime.

 

[HangryBird]

So they are allowing a Socialist Russia?

According to the update, the Entente are resigned to the reality that they're not in the position to stop the Soviets from winning the civil war. Hence why they are trying to get the Soviets to honor Tsarist debt in exchange for them abandoning their support for the Whites. Germany is backing the Soviets because the Whites are more belligerent toward them and aren't willing to recognize the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

However, the Entente and Germany are in the position to stop Italy from turning socialist. The logistics for intervening in Italy are much easier to handle than in Russia.

 

[Whiteshore]

The fate of the Catholic Church in a Socialist Italy would be interesting. I wonder if we'll see anything like the Revolutionary Catholic Church from A Day In July if that happens.

And on that note, the general flavor of socialism in Italy and how it differs compared to the socialism of the RSFSR (it is not like there are any other SSRs which it could be merged with to form the USSR) here.

 

[kham_coc]

And on that note, the general flavor of socialism in Italy and how it differs compared to the socialism of the RSFSR (it is not like there are any other SSRs which it could be merged with to form the USSR) here.

There would still be the CA SSRs i tuess

 

[Whiteshore]

There would still be the CA SSRs i tuess

Well, they were only established later after the initial establishment of the USSR, so there’s that and sans the Ukrainian, Belarusian, and Transcaucasian SSRs, they’d most likely remain ASSRs within the framework of the RSFSR ITTL.

 

[Reisen Storm]

However, this may be a moot point as I don't think the Entente and the Germans would allow a Socialist Italy right on their doorstep.

Meh, I can see it possible if only because the Entente and Germany/Austria-Hungary don't want to deal with an Italy that's align with the opposite faction. A Socialist Italy is just there all alone in the world with Soviet Russia.

 

[Angmar]

Invading Italy used to be Europe's favorite pastime.

🤣
I must remember that saying. That is good

 

[HangryBird]

Meh, I can see it possible if only because the Entente and Germany/Austria-Hungary don't want to deal with an Italy that's align with the opposite faction. A Socialist Italy is just there all alone in the world with Soviet Russia.

I think the Entente and Germany would want to isolate socialism to the Soviet Union. An Italy that goes socialist would cause them to be scared of socialists in their own countries being encouraged to start their own revolutions. To them, that fear would outweigh any possible geopolitical benefits of a Socialist Italy.

 

[boredviewer1234]

I think the Entente could accept a socialist Italy but it would depend on the nature of it. If they are a aggressive and pro USSR Italy is to much.

However say a Italy that's socialist and not hostile from the start is not going to be a deal breaker.

 

[mayboro]

I think the Entente could accept a socialist Italy but it would depend on the nature of it. If they are a aggressive and pro USSR Italy is to much.

However say a Italy that's socialist and not hostile from the start is not going to be a deal breaker.

I'm not so sure about that. France itself has enough internal problems and I doubt very much that they would accept a communist nation right on their borders, if they have a say in it, especially if there is a risk that their own communists might get funny ideas.
Add to this the guaranteed opposition from Austria-Hungary and the probable opposition from Germany and the only reason why such an Italy could survive would be that the various powers could not agree and therefore would not intervene.
Especially as Italy is much easier to defeat than Russia, whereas even the early Soviet Union could have been defeated ITTL if the two power blocs had worked together, the sheer size of the country and the overall unpopularity of the whites would have made the whole thing massively more difficult.

 

[boredviewer1234]

I'm not so sure about that. France itself has enough internal problems and I doubt very much that they would accept a communist nation right on their borders, if they have a say in it, especially if there is a risk that their own communists might get funny ideas.
Add to this the guaranteed opposition from Austria-Hungary and the probable opposition from Germany and the only reason why such an Italy could survive would be that the various powers could not agree and therefore would not intervene.
Especially as Italy is much easier to defeat than Russia, whereas even the early Soviet Union could have been defeated ITTL if the two power blocs had worked together, the sheer size of the country and the overall unpopularity of the whites would have made the whole thing massively more difficult.

Fair, guess I suppose it's highest chance of survival is disagreements plus general ''peace mood'' lasting long enough for them to consolidate otherwise very grim.

 

[Mayukh]

Would Socialist Italy even win the Civil War?

 

[Leonidas]

The impression I got is that the Germans and Bolsheviks had good reason to cooperate while the Entente backed the anti-German White forces, but with the civil war wrapping up and Germany's puppets not going anywhere, the RSFSR will shift to an anti-German position. Getting them to pay the tsarist war debts would be nice for the Entente, but it reads as more of an opportunistic ploy than an insurmountable barrier to cooperation. Depends on how pragmatic both sides are and how badly the Entente wants Russia to help challenge Germany. If the Italian revolutionaries win (and that's a big if), they'll be in a similar situation, although I don't remember them collaborating with the Germans or Austrians. Either way, this standalone RSFSR will develop in a pretty different way than the USSR did, especially with someone like Bukharin potentially succeeding Lenin.

Great update btw!

 

[Drizzt]

Getting them to pay the tsarist war debts would be nice for the Entente, but it reads as more of an opportunistic ploy than an insurmountable barrier to cooperation. Depends on how pragmatic both sides are and how badly the Entente wants Russia to help challenge Germany.

Pride and not wanting to look weak at home can be quite the motivators. Who cares about winning the next war against Germany in 10-20 years, when much higher matters are at stake?
Like the prospect of your important self loosing the next election or ending up against the wall for being a Counterrevolutionary Traitor to The People's Revolution.