To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

[Knightmare]

The Allied Intervention
The Anglo-French-American landings in Arkhangelsk and Murmansk in March 1918 had been vital at the time - the allies had spent years providing enormous supplies of arms and munitions to Russia via the ports of the north, and thus the British in particular sought to quickly crack down on the bolshevik ability to access those arms.

Funnily enough, recently read a book on them, and man, there is delusional commanders, and then there's "We can find tons of locals willing to fight for the Whites" while also constantly butting heads and not having any idea what is going on.

Honestly, the entire debacle earned the title of being a debacle, for a reason.

Nice to see this hasn't changed here.

 

[KingSweden24]

Terrific work! Really thoroughly researched and written so it was easy to follow along, which is not an easy feat when it comes to the nuances and personalities of the RCW.

Cant wait for more!

 

[Drizzt]

My best guess is that the matter of Communist Russia honouring Tsarist debt is going to prove quite the sticking point. Not just at the conference itself, but even more so going forward assuming they agree at first.

 

[HangryBird]

My best guess is that the matter of Communist Russia honouring Tsarist debt is going to prove quite the sticking point. Not just at the conference itself, but even more so going forward assuming they agree at first.

To add on my thoughts: not only would honoring the debt be hard to stomach on a financial level due to the destruction wreaked by the civil war, but it would also be hard to stomach on a symbolic level. It would be seen as the proletariat paying for the Tsar's imperialist war, which by extension, means that they are accepting responsibility for a war they opposed. From a certain point of view, they would become what they swore to destroy. It's a level of self-contradiction that can't easily be hand waved away.

 

[Crazymachines]

From a certain point of view, they would become what they swore to destroy.

I mean the bolsheviks kind of did that IRL so it's not exactly ASB

 

[Amon34]

very good chapter and nice to see you again

 

[HangryBird]

I mean the bolsheviks kind of did that IRL so it's not exactly ASB

True, but the Soviets often hand waved away the fact that they were just as oppressive and tyrannical as the Tsars by insisting that a vanguard was needed to protect and defend the revolution. I don’t think they can do the same so easily for honoring Tsarist debt.

 

[mayboro]

True, but the Soviets often hand waved away the fact that they were just as oppressive and tyrannical as the Tsars by insisting that a vanguard was needed to protect and defend the revolution. I don’t think they can do the same so easily for honoring Tsarist debt.

Unfortunately, I cannot agree with your opinion.
A "temporary" phase of authoritarianism to protect the gains of the revolution against counter-revolutionary elements, both internal and external, is always relatively easy to justify, regardless of the official ideology of the revolutionaries.
The problem of taking over the liabilities of the overthrown regime, however, implies a certain legal continuity between the new government and the old one.
And the communists do not see themselves in the legal succession of the old tsarist empire and do not want to assume it, as this runs counter to their ideological goals.
Especially since the sums involved are quite high in foreign currency, which will be difficult to earn in the current world situation, especially considering that the most industrialised parts of the old empire are no longer available for this and the country is economically in the doldrums due to the war and the ensuing civil war, which would force even more compromises in terms of ideology and brings with it the risk that the population will quickly realise that it makes no difference whether the communists or the tsar rule and could come up with "stupid" ideas.

 

[boredviewer1234]

Interesting chapter, curious to see the direction the USSR goes, I think it's often forgotten that Germany did make deals with them during this period and it would logically keep occurring post WW1 if possible. I myself am curious to see how current issues get resolved on one hand Germany won, if you can't celebrate the win and ride all the good PR the current order in Germany is not going to go well on the other things like the Tzar debt are going to possibly a to bitter pill to swallow and that is both for both sides.

However I would ask you to bring you attention to the secret shadow in any German USSR negotiations .....Italy. Germany found out to it's dismay their is only so much you push a peace terms before you start a conflict again and I'm sure that's something both of them are going to be well aware of. The Bolsheviks need to be in charge of the USSR for peace so making a deal that causes their troops to revolt and start a war again is useless.

I would suggest for Germany and the USSR to do something a bit scumy and acknowledge reality. Write off the the USSR and instead get the debt from the new colonies however with a Versailles type debt system.

It's not even wrong, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics provided not only a enormous part of the Russian empire's manpower but also it's industrial base. They are in reality successor states.

However doing it might damage relations so making it a debt that Germany never really plans on getting like Versailles class c payments allows them the PR of being a glorious conqueror to the German masses but also not damage relations with their subjects to much.

O yeah on the topic of Austria, one interesting and likely unintended affect of Germany screwing them over is they have little interest in a pro German calm status quo. If anything the more shaky they look in Poland and Ukraine the better it is for Austrian influence so I wonder if later on when they bite the bullet and acknowledge they are never getting it back you see Austria support and being a safe area for radical Ukrainian and Polish nationalists to have influence over the German European order.

 

[HangryBird]

Unfortunately, I cannot agree with your opinion.
A "temporary" phase of authoritarianism to protect the gains of the revolution against counter-revolutionary elements, both internal and external, is always relatively easy to justify, regardless of the official ideology of the revolutionaries.
The problem of taking over the liabilities of the overthrown regime, however, implies a certain legal continuity between the new government and the old one.
And the communists do not see themselves in the legal succession of the old tsarist empire and do not want to assume it, as this runs counter to their ideological goals.
Especially since the sums involved are quite high in foreign currency, which will be difficult to earn in the current world situation, especially considering that the most industrialised parts of the old empire are no longer available for this and the country is economically in the doldrums due to the war and the ensuing civil war, which would force even more compromises in terms of ideology and brings with it the risk that the population will quickly realise that it makes no difference whether the communists or the tsar rule and could come up with "stupid" ideas.

I’m sorry, but I don’t understand how this post disagrees with my statements. To me, it actually supports my statements by reinforcing my argument that it would be harder for the Soviets to justify honoring Tsarist debt than being authoritarian. If I am misinterpreting your post, please clarify it for me!

 

[mayboro]

I’m sorry, but I don’t understand how this post disagrees with my statements. To me, it actually supports my statements by reinforcing my argument that it would be harder for the Soviets to justify honoring Tsarist debt than being authoritarian. If I am misinterpreting your post, please clarify it for me!

I'm a little embarrassed now, I apparently didn't read what you wrote properly.( Hadn't noticed the don't as such)

 

[HangryBird]

I'm a little embarrassed now, I apparently didn't read what you wrote properly.( Hadn't noticed the don't as such)

It's fine! Things like this happen to the best of us!

 

[Megas Valens]

True, but the Soviets often hand waved away the fact that they were just as oppressive and tyrannical as the Tsars by insisting that a vanguard was needed to protect and defend the revolution. I don’t think they can do the same so easily for honoring Tsarist debt.

Saying they're gonna honor it and ACTUALLY honoring it are two entirely different things. We'll see what happens.

 

[Shiva]

The thing is the emerging USSR is technically even more wrecked than it was at the end of the RL Russian Civil War, because here they not only had their lands devastated by the war, even the bits that had good agriculture and industry are now lost to them (for now). So any sort of industrial rebuild will have to be done completely from scratch, with even fewer resources and lower manpower.

That's not even factoring in that Lenin, if his RL health issues play out in the TL will die in just a couple of years, and the dictatorship he built around himself will be up for grabs.

 

[Megas Valens]

I'm wondering where the Soviets could even go from here. Do they try to go into the Caucasus and fight the Ottomans? This Germany seems like it may not even get involved in such a conflict due to war weariness, but the Soviets don't necessarily know that. If they don't make a boneheaded attack against Germany or fight with Turkey over the Caucasus I'm really not sure what they would do, but sitting there at peace for a couple decades doesn't seem like their style. I guess it's all a matter of how afraid TTL's Soviets are of the Germans or if Trotsky succeeds Lenin and decides to some crazy "Global Revolution" shenanigans.

 

[Cylon_Number_14]

Terrific work! Really thoroughly researched and written so it was easy to follow along, which is not an easy feat when it comes to the nuances and personalities of the RCW.

Cant wait for more!

Seconded!
This huge post had me looking up OTL info on many of the characters. A very cosmopolitan bunch. And I finally read up on the Czechoslovak Legion revolt in Siberia I had heard of but never got around to learning. Definitely a case of “Real History that looks ASB.” I’m glad to read that OTL they eventually escaped to the Pacific Ocean. I hope they escape TTL also!

 

[Titanium49]

Britain may be able to assist Japan in securing all of Germany’s Asian colonies, save for Papua

Australia & NZ are unlikely to permit other German colonies in the South Pacific to go to Japan. Nauru is even further South, & aside from NZ/OZ reluctance, the Americans are unlikely to be happy with a Japanese Samoa.

It's a bit of a nitpick, but German New Guinea was always called New Guinea. Britain reluctantly took SE New Guinea in the 1880s at the request of the Australian colonies, & the transfer of its management was a condition of federation. After Australia took over German New Guinea, for 50 years it was administered as the Territory of Papua (SE) & the Territory of New Guinea (NE). Eventually the territories were merged as the Territory of Papua & New Guinea. It was then renamed the Territory of Papua New Guinea . But until the 1970s the usage was quite specific. The British-> Australian SE was the Territory of Papua while the German-> Australian NE was the Territory of New Guinea.

 

[HangryBird]

Saying they're gonna honor it and ACTUALLY honoring it are two entirely different things. We'll see what happens.

That's certainly a possibility. While the Soviet strategy of promising something, but then proceeding to drag their feet on it didn't work against the Germans (resulting in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk), could it actually work against the Entente and would the Soviets want to go through with this approach? Does the Entente have the ability and the will to compel the Soviets into honoring the Tsarist debt? Are the Soviets fine with alienating the Entente or do they want to play nice with the Entente in order to play the Entente and Germans off of each other? So many interesting questions . . .

 

[Reisen Storm]

Are the Soviets fine with alienating the Entente or do they want to play nice with the Entente in order to play the Entente and Germans off of each other? So many interesting questions . . .

Really depends if other socialist/communist revolutions succeedes in other countries. Which is why I'm interested in a Socialist Italy scenario. Will open up a lot of things.

 

[TheReformer]

Terrific work!

Seconded!

Cheers to both and all.

Speaking of Italy - suspect they may be the focus of the next update. Otherwise I may conclude the 'Arab' saga and take a little look at the post-war Ottomans.