Tiananmon Square results in a Chinese Democracy

If China became a democracy after 1989?

  • Would Taiwan simply join China?

    Votes: 3 33.3%
  • Might China simply accept the reality of Taiwan>?

    Votes: 3 33.3%
  • Might China simply retake Taiwan

    Votes: 1 11.1%
  • Would minorities get more freedom

    Votes: 2 22.2%
  • Might a democratic China be more authoritarian, less good for Tibet and Moslems

    Votes: 4 44.4%
  • Would China's Capitalism be less severe than in otl

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Total voters
    9
I know it is not likely. However might a section of the leadership not want to open fire. Is there any chance that som troops would refuse the orders
 
I think it's almost impossible that the Tiananmen Square protests succeed (minimal support within the army and outside Beijing), and even if they did I don't think it would lead to a liberal democratic China, as many of the protestors actively supported the CCP, just in a less corrupt form. But let's just assume that they do succeed and it does lead to a revolution and China being a democracy.

I think what happens in the short term is not so different from what happened in OTL Soviet Union. The state starts selling off literally everything, former party bigwigs buy it all up, and the common people suffer massively at least in the short to medium term. That's what happens when you put liberal reformers in charge of a nation with a huge public sector. One possible side effect of this is that Gorbachev sees the mess that is China and decides to proceed much more slowly. You could thus have a reversed situation, where the Soviet Union reforms very gradually and survives, while China collapses, goes through shock therapy, and suffers for a decade.

Back in China, I don't think that a reunion with Taiwan would happen any time soon. China's GDP per capita in 1989 was around $300 (assuming it doesn't decline even further after a violent revolution then a few years of asset stripping), and Taiwan's was around $7,500. I think most Taiwanese would care more about living in a prosperous and stable nation than attaching themselves to their massive, extremely poor neighbor out of a sense of national identity. The situation in Taiwan would thus be more or less the same as it is now, China desperately wanting to reintegrate Taiwan and Taiwan showing zero interest in being reintegrated. China's relationship with minorities is probably the same too, harsh enough to keep them under control but not harsh enough to provoke a backlash.

So I guess my answer is no on all 6 of your poll options.
 
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