The New Dawn – A British Political TL

[Airesien]

The New Dawn – A British Political TL​

Given I have bunch of free time on my hand, I've decided to do redo a TL that I had plans for last year but never actually got around to posting or writing out fully. Its going to be chiefly focused on British politics in the late 90s and the 2000s, but I will probably put some US politics into it as well.

– – –​

Update #1 – 1997 Conservative Party leadership election

The 1997 election had been the worst Conservative defeat in almost a century and Britain's usually dominant party was unsure where to go after the defeat. They were not helped by the resignation of John Major the day after the election; expected of course but some believed he may give the party some time to regroup before stepping down. Major's departure precipitated the party's third leadership election in seven years and was expected to be fought principally on the issue of just how to tackle and oppose a Labour Party with such a huge majority.

In different circumstances, Michael Portillo, darling of the right and the Secretary of State for Defence under John Major, would have been the overwhelming favourite to take over leadership of the party. However, his shock defeat on election night meant he was no longer an MP and, whilst he would return to Parliament just a few short months later in the Beckenham by-election he was nonetheless ineligible to stand for the leadership in the summer of 1997. The two early favourites were therefore former Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke and former Home Secretary Michael Howard.

Clarke had first entered Parliament in 1970 and was one of only five ministers to serve in government for the entirety of both Margaret Thatcher's and John Major's administration. The standard bearer of the left of the party, he was an ultra-loyalist to John Major and a noted Europhile, having been open, unlike most Conservatives, to Britain joining the single currency if the country so voted to do so in a referendum. Whilst he was disliked by the right of the party, many MPs saw his many years of experience and service and believed he was the safest pair of hands to take over the party and try to move it away from the bitter battles of the 1990s. It was under this belief that he managed to win significant support across the party (privately he was believed to be John Major's preferred candidate), including from some unusual suspects, such as social conservative and fierce Eurosceptic Ann Widdecombe. Michael Howard sat further to the right than Clarke, making him more amenable to many backbench MPs, and his campaign put him forward as a unity candidate who could bring both sides of the party together. Pledging to be tough on Europe, but not focused on it, Howard won the crucial backing of the popular former Welsh Secretary William Hague and agreed to make him his running mate, promising the MP for Richmond the position of Deputy Leader if he won.

The two favourites were joined by three Eurosceptics from the right. The first of these was Peter Lilley, the former Social Security Secretary who had gained notoriety in 1992 for threatening to join rebelling Tories over the Maastricht Treaty, although he ultimately avoided being sacked. John Redwood also threw his hat in the ring, known for his challenge to John Major in 1995, although he was given little chance of winning, as many MPs still distrusted him and he was seen as partly responsible for the general election defeat. The surprise challenger was Iain Duncan Smith. The MP for Chingford and Woodford Green, Duncan Smith said his leadership would be a "fresh start" for the party, away from the failures of the Major government and he emphasised his purist views on Europe and criticised the records of his opponents in government. An MP for only five years, he was initially given long odds to win, but soon gained momentum amongst MPs. There were even rumours that Lady Thatcher herself supported his campaign, rumours that Duncan Smith was only happy to let fester.

The first ballot of MPs saw Clarke unsurprisingly emerge in the lead, as the only real candidate of the Tory left. Meanwhile vote splitting amongst the right harmed the chances of Howard, Duncan Smith, Redwood and Lilley, who remained some distance behind him. Lilley won the support of just nine of his colleagues (and himself) and was eliminated, whilst Redwood saw the writing on the wall and dropped out after only winning 24 votes. He threw his support behind Clarke, which surprised many, although it later became clear that Clarke had promised him the position of Shadow Chancellor if he supported him. The second ballot, held a week later, shocked the party. Winning over most of Lilley and Redwood's supporters, Duncan Smith's insurgent campaign finished ahead of Michael Howard by just a solitary vote, eliminating the former Home Secretary and sending him to the final ballot in his place.

Although many of Howard's supporters did not sincerely believe Clarke could "move the party forward" as he had pledged, they nonetheless were sceptical that Duncan Smith had the political ability to begin the Tories' recovery and to win over the public. In particular they had concerns over his lack of experience, his behaviour during the Maastricht Rebellion and were worried his social conservative views and passionate hatred of the European Union would alienate the modern British public, and with Clarke polling much better amongst the general population, Howard's key swing voters split crucially for Clarke. In the final ballot on 19th June he took 89 votes, ahead of Duncan Smith's 75, and was declared the new Leader of the Conservative Party. He was true to his word and named Redwood as his Shadow Chancellor, whilst he also extended Shadow Cabinet offers to the other leadership contenders. At his request, Howard was made Shadow Foreign Secretary, moving him away from home affairs, whilst Peter Lilley was named Clarke's Shadow Health Secretary.

Though he offered Duncan Smith the post of Party Chairman, and then Shadow Trade and Industry Secretary when that was refused, his chief opponent instead opted to return to the backbenches, pledging instead to hold Clarke's feet to the fire over Europe. The decision would be a stark indicator of the difficulties the MP for Rushcliffe would face in leading a significantly depleted, and bitterly divided, parliamentary party.

Leaders of the Conservative Party
1965–1975: Edward Heath
1975–1990: Margaret Thatcher
1990–1997: John Major
1997–: Kenneth Clarke

Leaders of the Opposition
1965–1970: Edward Heath (Conservative)
1970–1974: Harold Wilson (Labour)
1974–1975: Edward Heath (Conservative)
1975–1979: Margaret Thatcher (Conservative)
1979–1980: James Callaghan (Labour)
1980–1983: Michael Foot (Labour)
1983–1992: Neil Kinnock (Labour)
1992–1994: John Smith (Labour)
1994–1997: Tony Blair (Labour)
1997: John Major (Conservative)
1997–: Kenneth Clarke (Conservative)​

 

[Airesien]

Update #2 – 1999 European elections in the United Kingdom

European elections have never ignited huge amounts of interest amongst the British electorate but in 1999 this was especially true. Held just over two years after Labour's landslide victory in the general election, the Government and the Prime Minister still held high approval ratings and with the issue of Europe pretty much settled for the time being given that the Conservatives were in opposition, there were suggestions that there could be a record low turnout.

European elections are always quite tricky territory for the Conservatives and that was no different for the Ken Clarke-led Conservatives in 1999. The Europhilic leader had kept a relatively tight ship over the previous two years, with spats over European policy remaining very much behind closed doors. But with an election to a European Parliament looming, that was unlikely to remain the case. Indeed Shadow Foreign Secretary Michael Howard was in hot water with the Leader of the Opposition's Office after he suggested on an episode of Question Time in April 1999 that the Conservatives could back a referendum on leaving the European Union at the next election, whilst Shadow Chancellor John Redwood, who had a surprisingly good relationship with Clarke on non-European matters, was privately pushing for such a pledge to be included in the party's next manifesto. In front of the cameras, Clarke insisted that the Conservatives remained supportive of Britain's membership of the European Union and that those who voted for them would be voting for a pro-European party.

The divisions on European policy between Clarke and the Eurosceptics in his Shadow Cabinet were pounced on by Labour, who produced a large election poster with the words "A UNITED VOICE ON EUROPE" plastered underneath a picture of Clarke, with Redwood stood behind him, a gag imposed over his mouth. However Labour were not expected to have a good election themselves: their voters had no real desire to come out in droves as they had done in 1994 and the party found it difficult to convince the few who were voting from making use of the newly-introduced proportional system and voting freely for smaller parties.

From the high water mark of 1994, Labour lost over 16 percentage points of vote share and 34 seats, although this was through no real anger or backlash against the government but simply their voters deciding to stay at home or lend their vote to smaller parties. Prior to the election Clarke was keen to have a rare win and set himself a personal target of emerging from the elections as the largest party, a goal which he achieved, with the Tories taking a modest 31% of the vote and 32 European Parliament seats. The Liberal Democrats, like Labour, struggled to get their voters to turn out but, despite finishing with less votes than in 1994, the party gained ten seats thanks to the new voting system. The UK Independence Party was also a beneficiary of the voting system, picking up 4 seats and close to a million votes, as many Eurosceptic Conservatives lent their votes to Michael Holmes's party. The Greens would also gain their first elected representation, gaining 2 seats and 5% of the vote, whilst the SNP and Plaid Cymru picked up seats in Scotland and Wales respectively. Turnout, as predicted, plummeted sharply, falling to just over 27%, the lowest ever turnout recorded in a national election in the UK.

Blair and the Government remained upbeat after the elections, making the point that opposition parties always did better in European elections, and suggesting that the 3.8 million votes the Conservatives had won would not be remotely near enough in a general election. The result also made the party reconsider its position to proportional representation, with Labour MPs becoming steadily more opposed to voting reform after the defeat. Margaret Beckett, the Trade and Industry Secretary, criticised the change in the voting system, suggesting it had unnecessarily reinvigorated the Conservatives.

 

[Airesien]

Update #3 – 1999 Liberal Democrats leadership election

Things were going well for the Liberal Democrats at the end of the 1990s. Coming off of the best third party performance in a UK election, winning 46 seats, Paddy Ashdown was under absolutely no pressure to stand aside as leader. However in January 1999 he made the surprising announcement that following that year's European elections, he would step down as leader. Citing a desire to spend more time with his family (and believing personally that he had taken the party as far as he could), Ashdown set in motion a long leadership election, with a warning that any candidate who wanted to replace him should support continued collaboration with the Labour government.

It had been a source of frustration amongst some Liberal Democrats, especially those on the right of the party, that Ashdown had pursued such a close relationship with Tony Blair and New Labour. Such an association made some sense if the party was getting anything out of the arrangement, but with Labour holding a massive majority of 179, the party had no real need to make any concessions to the Lib Dems. And whilst the Blair government had set up a commission to look at the voting system, it was no secret that many in Labour were keen to maintain the current system of first-past-the-post for general elections and no real progress had been made since the commission reported the previous September, recommending electoral reform.

Ashdown's preferred candidate and the party's spokesman for constitutional affairs Nick Harvey made the decision early to rule himself out, believing he did not have enough support amongst MPs to be able to lead the party effectively, whilst other rumoured candidates Menzies Campbell and Alan Beith (the current deputy leader) both indicated that they did not intend to run. The first candidate was Simon Hughes, Ashdown's spokesman for home affairs and one of the most vocal Labour-sceptics, who advocated putting some distance between the Lib Dems and the government. Going against the wishes of the outgoing leader, Hughes passionately made the case for the party charting its own course in order to win over crucial Conservative voters, who would be put off by the association of Labour. Hughes's main opponent, and the bookies's favourite, was Charles Kennedy. An MP since 1983, Kennedy was popular amongst the party grassroots and came in strongly in favour of retaining cooperation and collaboration with Labour, arguing privately that it was the best way for the party to achieve its long-desired goal of electoral reform. Kennedy and Hughes were joined by Malcolm Bruce, the party's shadow chancellor and also-rans Jackie Ballard and David Rendel, who only made it onto the ballot thanks to token endorsements from MPs keen to widen the debate beyond the two frontrunners.

The contest looked to be a straight two-way fight, with Kennedy having the early momentum, until a fateful April evening. A taxi carrying Kennedy back from a local party event in his rural, Highland constituency swerved off the road, resulting in a bad car accident that left the 40-year-old incapacitated and out of action. Although Kennedy did eventually return to his duties as MP at the end of the year, his injuries forced him to withdraw from the contest that summer. The result from then on was never really in doubt, with assured performances in local hustings securing Hughes a comfortable victory. Taking over 60% of the vote and winning the contest in the first round, Hughes was declared the second ever Leader of the Liberal Democrats.

Leaders of the Liberal Party (1967–1988)
1967–1976: Jeremy Thorpe
1976: Jo Grimond
1976–1988: David Steel

Leaders of the Social Democratic Party (1982–1988)
1982–1983: Roy Jenkins
1983–1987: David Owen
1987–1988: Robert Maclennan

Leaders of the Liberal Democrats
1988–1999: Paddy Ashdown
1999–: Simon Hughes
​

 

[stodge]

An interesting opening to the TL.

In OTL, Hague reneged on the deal with Howard because he was seen by many in the Party as the ideal figure to keep the Conservatives going through what looked like a minimum of 10 years in Opposition. Skipping a generation rather than relying on the old warhorses of the 80s and 90s was seen as the only way forward.

Hague had also been an MP for longer than IDS - Hague was elected in 1989 and had served in the Major Cabinet. IDS had simply been a pain on the backbenches and it's hard to see where he could or would have got that level of support in 1997.

The Clarke-Redwood deal in OTL backfired disastrously but it could have worked so I can see Clarke becoming leader but he would have faced exactly the same issues as Major and to an extent Hague. The new Parliamentary Party, much reduced though it was, was strongly Eurosceptic and they would have had, as leader, a man who was broadly supportive of joining the Euro.

It's interesting to note as far as the 1999 Euro elections are concerned Clarke does worse in the ATL than Hague did in the OTL.

 

[Airesien]

An interesting opening to the TL.

In OTL, Hague reneged on the deal with Howard because he was seen by many in the Party as the ideal figure to keep the Conservatives going through what looked like a minimum of 10 years in Opposition. Skipping a generation rather than relying on the old warhorses of the 80s and 90s was seen as the only way forward.

Hague had also been an MP for longer than IDS - Hague was elected in 1989 and had served in the Major Cabinet. IDS had simply been a pain on the backbenches and it's hard to see where he could or would have got that level of support in 1997.

The Clarke-Redwood deal in OTL backfired disastrously but it could have worked so I can see Clarke becoming leader but he would have faced exactly the same issues as Major and to an extent Hague. The new Parliamentary Party, much reduced though it was, was strongly Eurosceptic and they would have had, as leader, a man who was broadly supportive of joining the Euro.

It's interesting to note as far as the 1999 Euro elections are concerned Clarke does worse in the ATL than Hague did in the OTL.

Thanks for the feedback.

In this TL Hague decides to stick with Howard, believing that a united ticket was the best way forward rather than going it alone. The ticket is generally seen as the favourite as I explained, but Howard is damaged by the "something of the night" comments and attacks on his record in government, which allows IDS to (just) get an upper hand in the second ballot. I do agree that IDS doing that well in 1997 is quite ASB, but he takes the lion share of the support from Lilley and Redwood and is boosted by rumours and suggestions that Thatcher is supportive of his bid, as he was in 2001 in OTL.

I thought it was really interesting that Redwood backed Clarke of all people so wanted to run with that idea. He goes forward with his promise to make him Shadow Chancellor and the pair do actually get along a lot better than expected, but they really just don't see eye-to-eye on Europe, which comes to a head before the next election.

I think Clarke's open Europhilia would push a few Eurosceptic Tory voters to UKIP, hence why he didn't do as well, but the Tories do still win the Euro election relatively comfortably as in OTL.

 

[Airesien]

Update #4 – 2000–01 United Kingdom fuel protests

The first three years of New Labour had been, by any measure, extremely successful. The party had achieved much both domestically and internationally: devolution for Scotland and Wales, House of Lords reform, peace in Northern Ireland, the introduction of the minimum wage, successful intervention in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, a closer relationship with both Europe and the United States, a thriving economy, falling unemployment and, perhaps most importantly, strong polling numbers. The public certainly liked the cut of Ken Clarke's jib, he was seen as a statesman and had high approval ratings across the board. The problem for the Conservatives was that Tony Blair's approval ratings were higher: he was just too popular. Going into 2000, Labour had an average lead over the Conservatives of almost twenty points and there were suggestions that Blair could call an early election, possibly in autumn 2000 or early 2001, to capitalise on this and secure himself a second term in government.

However, the three-year honeymoon was brought crashing down to reality in the first summer of the new millennium. Oil prices had steadily rose throughout the late 90s and early 2000s, with high taxes on fuel pushing them up even higher. By 2000, tax accounted for 81.5% of the total cost of unleaded petrol, up from 72.8% in 1993. Fuel prices in the UK had risen from being amongst the cheapest in Europe to being the most expensive in the same time frame. Critics said that higher transport costs in the UK were making it difficult for haulage industry to remain competitive. Anger had been rising for some time, culminating in some scattered protests across London and the South East at the end of 1999. But anger was truly mounting to boiling point by middle of 2000, leading to a string of protests across the country, disrupting fuel supply chains in England and Scotland, then in Wales. Large protests in August saw some supermarkets warn that they were unable to get the stock they needed on their shelves, with warehouses unable to make deliveries. Protestors demanded a reduction of up to 20 pence per litre in fuel duties, but the Treasury was unwilling to budge. Number Ten was more cautious but too believed that the anger would subside.

Not so. More and more protests emerged in the autumn, prompting panic buying at petrol stations and causing some to run out of fuel. Others rationed their supplies and increased prices. Slowly the public began to blame the Government and the poll numbers reflected this. By October, the Conservatives had cut down Labour's average lead of eighteen points to an average lead of just four points. The Opposition was all too happy to take advantage of the situation, with Conservative MPs and activists joining in the protests, demanding that the Government reduce taxes to alleviate the crisis. Ken Clarke soon made it a weekly occurrence during Prime Minister's Questions that he would ask the Prime Minister whether he was willing to put the country before his pride and back down. The problem was that Blair's Number Two was the most powerful Chancellor in modern political history and Gordon Brown had no intention of paying the multi-billion pound cost that reducing fuel duties would bring. The Autumn Budget in 2000 went by without any measures to reduce fuel duties, prompting further protests throughout the winter and into 2001.

In early 2001, Labour found itself consistently behind the Conservatives in the opinion polls, as Blair found his own approval ratings falling like a stone: more people now were disapproving of his leadership than ever before. Clarke also started to lead him in preferred prime minister polling. But Gordon Brown's popularity was beginning to be hit as well, with a January 2001 poll finding that 72% of the country were dissatisfied with the Chancellor's response to the crisis. The Treasury soon realised it needed to act. Ahead of the Spring Budget, Brown announced a number of measures that he said would reduce the burden on motorists: these included cuts to duties affecting certain fuels and moving some vehicles into lower tax bands. At a cost of more than £2 billion to the Treasury, the move did cause the protests to subside and soon supermarkets and petrol stations began to resume normal operations. Some scattered protests continued into April and May, but these did not have public support. The Government regained the initiative, although their poll lead had been eliminated, with the Conservatives level-pegging throughout the summer of 2001.

The poor opinion polls led to the announcement that the Government would not be calling an election before 2002. Though the public reason given was that the Government still had work to finish before it was given its verdict by the electorate, privately Number Ten pollsters were concerned that an earlier election could see the party returned with a significantly cut majority or, even worse, a hung parliament. Blair's largest fear was going the same way as Jim Callaghan and being known as a one-term Prime Minister and so, with the hope that the Government could recover its good position, he pushed for more time. Although some of the right-wing press called the move cowardice, realistically most of the UK were not clamouring for an election in 2001, given that the country had only gone to the polls four years earlier and had voted in European elections since (and Scotland and Wales had both had referendums and elections to their newly-established devolved legislatures), and the Conservative attacks that Labour were "running scared of the country" failed to really stick.

By the end of the summer, momentum did began to shift and it looked like the decision to delay would pay off. The Conservatives had had a good crisis and Clarke felt emboldened by his achievement of closing the gap with the Government but the party soon began to return to its state of fighting over Europe. The particular issue was Britain's potential membership of the single currency. It was no secret that Tony Blair was in favour of Britain joining the Euro, whilst the Treasury said that membership of the single currency was a matter for them and that the public would not be asked on its opinion on membership until five economic tests had been met, with the Chancellor reporting in September 2001 that the UK economy remained too inflexible for him to recommend membership at that time. Even the most Europhilic of Conservatives tended to support keeping the Pound, but not Leader Ken Clarke. He made no secret that he was open to membership of the single currency and, as well as vetoing any commitment from the party to a referendum on EU membership, he was keen that the party support a referendum on the Euro and pushed to include this in the next Conservative election manifesto. For Clarke's Shadow Chancellor, the dedicated Eurosceptic John Redwood, putting forward a policy that could lead to further integration with Europe was a non-starter, especially an economic policy which he saw as his responsibility alone. The disagreements came to a head in September 2001, when Redwood made the decision to step down from the Shadow Cabinet. Publicly, the MP for Wokingham insisted that he was "100% behind" the Leader but everyone could read between the lines: the Leader of the Opposition had just lost his number two over a dispute on European policy.

 

[sarahz]

Update #3 – 1999 Liberal Democrats leadership election

Things were going well for the Liberal Democrats at the end of the 1990s. Coming off of the best third party performance in a UK election, winning 46 seats, Paddy Ashdown was under absolutely no pressure to stand aside as leader. However in January 1999 he made the surprising announcement that following that year's European elections, he would step down as leader. Citing a desire to spend more time with his family (and believing personally that he had taken the party as far as he could), Ashdown set in motion a long leadership election, with a warning that any candidate who wanted to replace him should support continued collaboration with the Labour government.

It had been a source of frustration amongst some Liberal Democrats, especially those on the right of the party, that Ashdown had pursued such a close relationship with Tony Blair and New Labour. Such an association made some sense if the party was getting anything out of the arrangement, but with Labour holding a massive majority of 179, the party had no real need to make any concessions to the Lib Dems. And whilst the Blair government had set up a commission to look at the voting system, it was no secret that many in Labour were keen to maintain the current system of first-past-the-post for general elections and no real progress had been made since the commission reported the previous September, recommending electoral reform.

Ashdown's preferred candidate and the party's spokesman for constitutional affairs Nick Harvey made the decision early to rule himself out, believing he did not have enough support amongst MPs to be able to lead the party effectively, whilst other rumoured candidates Menzies Campbell and Alan Beith (the current deputy leader) both indicated that they did not intend to run. The first candidate was Simon Hughes, Ashdown's spokesman for home affairs and one of the most vocal Labour-sceptics, who advocated putting some distance between the Lib Dems and the government. Going against the wishes of the outgoing leader, Hughes passionately made the case for the party charting its own course in order to win over crucial Conservative voters, who would be put off by the association of Labour. Hughes's main opponent, and the bookies's favourite, was Charles Kennedy. An MP since 1983, Kennedy was popular amongst the party grassroots and came in strongly in favour of retaining cooperation and collaboration with Labour, arguing privately that it was the best way for the party to achieve its long-desired goal of electoral reform. Kennedy and Hughes were joined by Malcolm Bruce, the party's shadow chancellor and also-rans Jackie Ballard and David Rendel, who only made it onto the ballot thanks to token endorsements from MPs keen to widen the debate beyond the two frontrunners.

The contest looked to be a straight two-way fight, with Kennedy having the early momentum, until a fateful April evening. A taxi carrying Kennedy back from a local party event in his rural, Highland constituency swerved off the road, resulting in a bad car accident that left the 40-year-old incapacitated and out of action. Although Kennedy did eventually return to his duties as MP at the end of the year, his injuries forced him to withdraw from the contest that summer. The result from then on was never really in doubt, with assured performances in local hustings securing Hughes a comfortable victory. Taking over 60% of the vote and winning the contest in the first round, Hughes was declared the second ever Leader of the Liberal Democrats.

View attachment 542473

Leaders of the Liberal Party (1967–1988)
1967–1976: Jeremy Thorpe
1976: Jo Grimond
1976–1988: David Steel

Leaders of the Social Democratic Party (1982–1988)
1982–1983: Roy Jenkins
1983–1987: David Owen
1987–1988: Robert Maclennan

Leaders of the Liberal Democrats
1988–1999: Paddy Ashdown
1999–: Simon Hughes
​

I would point out that although Simon has had a shall we say Adversarial relationship with Labour, not unusual where Lib Dems and Labour fight each other, he was hardly on the right of the Party and would find propping up a Tory administration pretty ruddy difficult. He is not an Orange book pseudo Conservative neothatcherite like some around Clegg were. His view was more that the Lib Dems were the true progressives and Labour too establishment and small c conservative.

 

[SomeFollowTheStars]

I can't wait to see an Clarke-led Conservative Party response to the anti-Blair anti-Iraq War movement.

 

[RichmondHistory]

Can I ask what the status of this is?
Also, I'm wondering where the anti EU opposition will go with both parties being so pro EU. Will the UK truly integrate more? Perhaps they'll join the Euro? An unlikely but interesting possiblity is that the parties end up aligning with the Conservative party being pro EU and neoliberal and the left wing anti EU opposition becoming a bigger and stronger force within the Labour party.