The Lupercal - A 20th Century Timeline

[TheReformer]

PREFACE​

To say I've wanted to write this TL for a while would be an understatement; in fact I've essentially been slowly plugging away at it since the inconclusive end of my first and last TL; Paralysed in Darkness. Having spent more time focused on the shared world's community, getting back into pure writing has been a bit of an adjustment. I've thus gone back and forth between making this a graphics timeline or a written one, and I've landed on doing it somewhere in-between. Additionally, my pathalogical dislike of 'soft' alternate history and my desire to keep things on a more rigid, methodical and realistic path has certainly benefited the development of this timeline - having researched a lot of stuff and uncovered some interesting documents on the way. As such I'm pleased to say that even if some parts of this timeline are slightly steered to get a general theme, almost everything I've written in this thus far has been based on real life data, imperical evidence and accounts on individuals actions, along with having based much of what happens in this timeline from my own background in studying Strategic Studies and modern Ministry of Defence Crisis Narratives (essentially war-games, sometimes without war).

I intend to contribute to this as often as I can, however I am now moving to study a Masters in Journalism and thus I may not update weekly even if I try to do so. I will say though I get easily distracted so any encouragement, insights or questions offered will act as a good motivator for me!

Anyway, in my last TL I provided context for where I intend to take this; this time I've decided not to! Thus if you want to see where it goes I'm afraid you'll have to read Anyway, I hope you enjoy, look forward to your feedback and without further adieu I welcome you to the world and timeline of The Lupercal. There are two points of divergence in this timeline that will feature in the first two 'Prelude' of the three updates in bold in the text.

 

[TheReformer]

PRELUDE
Part One | These United States​

The roaring 20's are coming to a close, and what a decade they have been. For the United States few could do anything but describe it as the height of American wealth, the pinnacle of American world power and a liberal lifestyle that left many Americans far happier than they had ever been. Yet they followed what could only be described as one of the worst decades in the history of the world with the largest war known to man having occurred on the other side of the Atlantic, a war that the United States found itself involved in despite the general apathy of most Americans, and a war that brought an unimaginable plague back home with it on the transport ships following victory that would kill over 500,000 people. These were trying times, hard prices to pay for the decade of peace that would follow.

Politically, the United States found itself in a unique point in it's history. The Democrats having been caught arguably on the wrong side of history during the Civil War, they had only twice since won the Presidency from the hands of the GOP, yet by 1928 had been out of office for two terms. The fates would deliver them a third defeat though in November 1928 in a very one sided contest between Republican Herbert Hoover and Democrat Al Smith whom would go on to lose by seven million votes - and be defeated in his own Home State where he had been governor for a decade. Yet despite the national defeat, a glimmer of hope came from the candidacy of one Franklin Delano Roosevelt in New York whom had signed onto the race expecting he would lose. This year was a bad one for all Democrats, let alone one running in a northern Republican state following the long tenure of a Democratic Governor against a moderate and experienced New Yorker who also happened to be the first ever Jewish Gubernatorial candidate in New York's history. Yet hope remained for Roosevelt, he was an extremely popular, eloquent and intelligent young man who's story may not have been one of 'rags to riches' but was certainly one of overcoming adversity, the 46 year old having suffered from Polio so terribly that many expected he would die. Roosevelt saw himself as a man out of time, having been made very aware of his own mortality during his sickness he intended to live up to his ambition of becoming the President of the United States that he had set out for himself at a young age. Thus when he was defeated alongside his mentor Al Smith in the race for the Governor's office by a margin of less than 1% of the vote [1] he saw the defeat not for the loss that it was, but for the opportunity it presented. In losing with such a narrow margin, Roosevelt had undoubtedly secured himself as one of the most successful democrats in America, and had done his duty and taken one for the team for the 'bosses' of the Democratic Party whom had asked him to run. Now he only needed the experience to back up the charm.

By 1930 circumstances in the United States had drastically changed. Unemployment between 1929 and 1930 alone had doubled to just under 10%, a level unseen since the end of the Great War while Black Tuesday had sent shockwaves throughout the entire US financial system. The country was about to experience one of it's most significant economic declines it had experienced, and people had just started to feel it. Thus, only 13 months after Black Tuesday, in November 1930 Roosevelt would run again for the Governor's office - and this time he would win by a landslide with an 8% swing. He had considered running for the Senate instead of going for the Governorship again, but Black Tuesday changed things. Roosevelt needed his resume completed quickly, for by 1932 he knew the Democratic candidate would undoubtedly win. Roosevelt was right, and the 'Great Depression' soon gained full traction, destroying the economy and President Hoover with it.

Yet Roosevelt was was just one of several men trying to capitalize on the economic collapse. Having gained a national audience through his campaigning for the popular so called 'blind cowboy' candidate Thomas Gore of Oklahoma, Burton K. Wheeler had inadvertently become a popular voice of dissatisfation with the existing order within the Democratic Party following Black Tuesday. A lifelong 'liberal' and supporter of the nationalization of various public utilities like energy, rail and water since the early 1920's, Wheeler had built a reputation among the party as a bit of a radical whom often cared little for the established elite within it's leadership. Quite why the democratic party decided to give the maverick Senator a platform by inviting him to speak at the annual Jefferson Day dinner in New York in April 1930 therefore is beyond the comprehension of many who look back at the event. Predictably he had a surprise in store for the Democrats assembled there that day when he spoke...

"Thomas Jefferson believed in the rule of the Majority of all the people. He opposed the minority of owners of plantations which sought to vest control of the new Government solely in it's own class. Thus from the very beginning there has been a sharp division in American Political Thought. Jefferson believed that when the people were wholly informed on any issue, the decision of the Majority would be right. He did not hold with the theory that only those of wealth and position were fit to rule...[2] As I look about for a General to lead the Democratic Party on the two issues, the tariff and control of power and public utilities, I ask to whom we can go?"​

He deliberately did not answer his own question [3], instead leaving the audience hanging on the question of whom should lead, in his own words, a "reunited, militant progressive party". Despite the suggestions that this was in fact him making a power play for a 1932 candidacy, writings and historical accounts suggest Wheeler genuinely was positing a question to the audience as he assumed he was unelectable within the party. His speech however lit the country ablaze, enormously lifting his personality in a manner described by the New York Times which described them as having "launched a boom" for Wheeler [4]. This was immediately picked up upon by Union Leaders whom met with Wheeler only weeks later, most notably including the bombastic Republican leader of the United Mine Workers John L. Lewis. Lewis never endorsed Wheeler in 1932 for the Presidency, but wrote of the election years later saying that while he campaigned for Hoover he hoped that Wheeler would win, leading to many to speculate that Lewis was in fact one of Wheeler's most encouraging advocates during 1930-31 while he decided upon running for the nomination in 1932. Ultimately as we know Wheeler did in fact choose to do so.

The 1932 Democratic Convention was a collosal affair. While the term 'brokered convention' didnt apply in this era, one could without a doubt describe it as probably one of the most brokered in some time. Wheeler, riding high on his popularity and calls for what he called the "New Deal", a term coined and given to him by Stuart Chase and Florence Kelly in early 1932 upon the publication of Chase's book 'A New Deal', recieved surprising and unexpected momentum throughout the primary season when he visited virtually every mid western and western state in the union to offer them the chance to lead the Democratic party for once. Westerners had often been ignored by Democratic leadership, with very few of them ever being trusted to be nominated for an important role, and thus when Wheeler's popularity nationally exploded following the depression many voted for him on the basis that he was from out west alone. As such Wheeler would end up 'winning' the primaries and taking 17 states in their various primaries and caucuses to Roosevelt's 16.

With the Convention beginning with no clear favourite and a host of candidates for the nomination, it would be Roosevelt who came first in the initial ballot with 413 votes, though he remained far shy of the 770 needed to secure the nomination. He had spent the last two years since becoming Governor making allies within the party and despite his more radical or 'progressive' views he was liked and respected by the party elite. He was firmly disliked however by his former mentor and friend Al Smith. Perturbed by Roosevelt's refusal to seek any advice from him on Governing New York, Roosevelt and Smith had immediately begun to drift apart in early 1931 following Roosevelt's election, especially when in the eyes of Roosevelt, Smith had always been and remained the candidate to beat in 1932. Roosevelt thus had spent a significant amount of time and energy attempting to undermine and sideline Smith, painting him as a failed candidate from the past who could threaten a shoe in victory for the Democrats in 1932. Ironically, it was this ignorance of Smith by Roosevelt that encouraged him to run. Smith had initially intended never to again run for elected office following his defeat in 1928, but following Black Tuesday he, like Roosevelt, had realised that any Democrat who ran would win in 1932 - and his desire to prove that an Irish and Catholic American could win the Presidency, combined with his increasing dislike of Roosevelt whom he saw as an ungrateful youth in comparison to his service to the party pushed him into declaring his candidacy [5]. Smith however didnt even manage second place in the first ballot and only managed to win four contests in the primaries. Wheeler by contrast won 253 delegates on the first round, putting him in pole position to act as the 'anti Roosevelt' candidate and the even more liberal option.

The second ballot would see a more determined swing towards Roosevelt as Traylor and some other minor candidates dropped out in exchange for 'favours' from the frontrunner. Smith himself lost some eight backers to Roosevelt whom seemed to be picking up momentum towards the nomination. It was at this point that Smith, determined in his efforts to see Roosevelt defeated, abandoned his ambitions for the nomination. The writing was clear as day on the wall, and Smith accepted his defeat. Thus he turned instead to Wheeler, and offered him his endorsement and thus most of his delegates on the condition that Smith play an integral part in his administration should he be nominated. The endorsement was shocking for the Democratic leadership and the convention, and quickly made it a two horse race between Wheeler and Roosevelt with Wheeler suddenly jumping from a far to a close second on the third ballot. By the fourth ballot the convention began to shift towards Wheeler who gained the endorsement of Gov. George White from Ohio whom had extensively cooperated with Smith to try and keep Roosevelt from the nomination. Both the Roosevelt and Wheeler camps then made a play for John Nance Garner's endorsement - likely the deciding vote. Garner, thrilled with his position as tie breaker, negotiated with both parties whom eventually offered him the VP slot in both cases should he back their camp. Few records exist to explain Garner's choice in the end, though it has been suggested that Garner picked Wheeler purely on account of him not being a New Englander and following some persuasion from Smith. With Garner's endorsement suddenly the candidate few expected to ever be a Democratic nominee suddenly was poised to get the nomination, capturing 643 votes on the fourth round of the convention voting and with it first place. There was no alternative now, just Wheeler and Roosevelt, and thus on the fifth and final ballot around 150 Roosevelt delegates broke ranks and backed Wheeler to get the process over and done with - and just like that Burton K. Wheeler had become the nominee for the Democratic Party in 1932. Wheeler, whom had been in Chicago throughout the entire convention, immediately demonstrated his populist credentials to his new party by making the first ever victory speech in front of the convention where he promised a new deal for Americans built on liberal ideals, and a period of reflection and inward development rather than global adventures. This has become the standard operating procedure for Presidential Candidates ever since.

The General Election campaign was essentially a shoe in from day one. Wheeler, despite being painted as a radical by Hoover, was broadly popular and liked by ordinary americans across the country in an election that would have been hard for the Democrats to lose. The campaign however was unique in that Wheeler's candidacy managed to run on a platform described by historians as both to the left and right of the incumbent President Hoover, largely on account of Wheeler's planned New Deal and the economic restructuring that it would require being to the left of Hoover while his Tariff and taxation policies sat to the right of Hoover whom had used massive spending and taxes to attempt to rebound the economy, especially when it came to import tariffs where Hoover had spent years essentially discouraging global trade. Hoover found himself so opposed by even republican legislators and opponents within the party that at one point in the campaign he recieved a letter from an Illinois man urging him to vote for Wheeler 'to make it unanimous' [6].

In the end Wheeler would defeat Hoover by some four and a half million votes, carrying forty of the forty-eight states and 430 electoral votes. A landslide of historic magnatude for a Democratic nominee whom had only eight years prior run for the Vice Presidency of another party. Thus began the Wheeler Administration.

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[1] This is our main Point of Divergence. Roosevelt is defeated in 1928 rather than winning very narrowly, thus reducing his platform to campaign for the Presidency in 1932. No doubt he would still try though, and thus he runs again for the Governorship two years later. His reputation however is not as solidified as in OTL.
[2] These words were actually spoken by Roosevelt on that same day in 1930 in his address as Governor. In this timeline Ottinger would have made that speech, and thus these words would never be spoken ittl. As such I have 'lifted' them and had them be said by Wheeler instead as had Roosevelt not made reference to this point Wheeler would almost certainly have done so. This is only emphasized by the fact that these words said by Roosevelt were what made Wheeler endorse Roosevelt that very evening in OTL, before he had even announced his run for the Presidency and when he had only met the man twice.
[3] In OTL Wheeler did answer his own question, stating that if the people of New York re-elected the by now well established, popular and proven liberal Roosevelt then the west of the country would demand his nomination for the Presidency. This does not happen here as Roosevelt has no record to go on and Wheeler sees no alternative, especially as Roosevelt is yet to even announce his candidacy for the New York Governorship in April.
[4] The NYT actually said Wheeler's speech "launched a boom" for Roosevelt.
[5] All true, though Smith himself admitted to be using 1928 as a springboard for a 1932 candidacy after the election he supposedly decided not to run again, resigning all party positions and retiring. He learned to hate Roosevelt soon after though and eventually ran just to oppose him, with his own campaign staff admitting his campaign had no chance of success.
[6] Actually happened, though for Roosevelt.

 

[TheReformer]

PRELUDE
Part Two| The Army Comrades​

Ireland in the 1930's found itself amidst a political revolution. Since independence, Ireland's political scene had been dominated by two factions; those who were 'pro Treaty' and those whom were against it. This referred to the 1922 Anglo-Irish Treaty which granted Ireland home rule to a similar degree to that of Canada at the time, thus establishing the Irish Free state, though not as a Republic but as a Dominion of Britain subject to various rules and restrictions determined by the British Parliament. Further, the borders of this independent Ireland would not cover the entire island of Ireland, but 26 of the 32 Irish counties. For many Republicans this was simply too much, prompting a civil war throughout the early 1920's between the pro and anti Treaty Irish Republican Armies that, with the aid of the British, would eventually result in a pro-Treaty victory and the establishment of the Irish Free State.

Ever since the establishment of the nation the pro-treaty faction had governed Ireland in the form of the Cumann na nGaedheal Party under W. T. Cosgrave. Yet Cumann na nGaedheal had been on a natural electoral decline for the past two elections, and in February 1932 it finally faced defeat at the hands of a new anti-Treaty and Republican party Fianna Fail. Led by Éamon de Valera, Fianna Fail did not at all expect Cumann na nGaedheal to willingly surrender power following the election to the Republicans, prompting many elected members of the Irish Parliament, or Dáil Éireann, to arrive armed. Yet upon arrival they were surprised to find that Cosgrave had willingly abandoned power despite the urgings of some members of the Government to perform a coup and seize power regardless of the election result. One of these members was the popular Irish General from the Civil War and Garda Síochána Commissioner Eoin O'Duffy. O'Duffy was dismissed by De Valera in 1933 following Fianna Fail's second election victory due to De Valera's claims that he would be "likely to be biased in his attitude because of past political affiliations", yet the reality was he was fired due to his repeated encouragements made to Cosgrave to enact the hypothesised coup. So alarmed in fact by the General's encouragement towards some kind of act of political violence to stop Fianna Fail was even W. T. Cosgrave, that it is considered likely his Government too would have fired the general had they been re-elected, at least according to Cosgrave's Finance Minister Ernest Blythe anyway.

O'Duffy's firing from office was not the end of his political career however as De Valera and many others had hoped. Instead he sought new means to achieve power. Encouraged by Blythe, he joined and soon became leader of the Army Comrades Association - an organization dedicated to the protection of Cumann na nGaedheal public meetings, quickly changing the name of the organization to the 'National Guard' and adopting new practices like the Roman Salute and the wearing of a standardized blue shirted uniform, leading to the introduction of the nickname of 'the Blueshirts' by both supporters and opponents. The climax of the organization would come in late August 1933 however when O'Duffy would announce his intention to mark the deaths of Michael Collins and Arthur Griffith with a march through Dublin. Despite the outwardly peaceful intentions of the march, De Valera immediately would suspect O'Duffy's intentions, believing him to be attempting a repeat of Mussolini's march on rome due to O'Duffy's admiration of the Duce. As such the Irish Government would quickly enact emergency provisions in the constitution, banning the march and deploying the Gardaí to key positions in the capital to oppose it. O'Duffy however was undeterred [1].

Viewing the march as a rightful and normal act of political activism, O'Duffy would opt to continue with the march, in essence daring the Gardaí whom he had led for eleven years to stop him while rallying the people of Dublin and it's outer lying regions to his cause; many of whom being supporters of Cumann na nGaedheal. The Government's action against the march thus soon became a driver for it's success, with thousands of additional supporters turning up alongside the Blueshirts simply to march in demonstration of their solidarity against a Government that while elected peacefully, was not supported electorally in Dublin itself and remained under the suspicions of pro-treaty activists. The raiding of prominent pro-treaty leaders homes the day before too encouraged a sentiment that the Government was attempting to secure anti-treaty Republican control over the system of Government in Ireland, a lie that O'Duffy would only encourage prior to the march.

Almost immediately with the beginning of the march things would start to go wrong. The Gardaí initially permitted the march to go ahead, albeit flanked and observed by their men until Glasnevin Cemetery. A service was conducted here by the Blueshirts, yet when they attempted to leave for the second half of their march towards Parliament for speeches the Gardaí would obstruct the road, backed from afar in the rear by members of the continuity Irish Republican Army. Here is where the initial chaos would ensue as blueshirts initially peacefully sought to move across the Cross Guns Bridge, a feeble defensive position but one that the Gardaí nontheless attempted to hold the crowd at. The reality though was clear, the Gardaí whom were significantly outnumbered had no means of holding back such a large organized crowd that soon began to cross the Canal at other points or simply walk around the small Gardaí force, prompting them to withdraw down towards Capel and Sackville streets. Violence quickly ensued as the Gardaí, now driven on by their Irish Republican Army allies, opted to prevent the march from entering the central part of Dublin by obstructing the O'Connell bridge, among others, in the way of the march. Quite who fired a shot first remains entirely unknown, though records suggest that IRA members were in some cases armed and while an unarmed organization it is almost certain that some blueshirts were carrying weapons. Regardless the outcome would be a quick descent into violence, with the Gardaí panicking on account of their lack of experience dealing with such vast crowds that would intimidate any young officer. Though primarily in a violent melee rather than a gunfight, the Gardaí were always doomed to fail; outnumbered enormously by the vast crowd that had now swelled as the march moved further into the city, while the Gardaí were able to deter the more feeble minded, women, children and the very elderly from continuing their march the vast number of blueshirts in attendance quickly overran the Gardaí and IRA.

The march quickly continued on, now more of an insurrection than a march, arresting those Gardaí who did not lay injured on the ground or even in some cases dead before marching on the old Irish Parliament. Naturally, having got wind of the violence in the city the Chief Executive of the Irish Free State Eamon de Valera quickly called on military units in the city to surpress the march as had been planned, with forces assembling at Trinity College Park and Nassau Street, armed. Yet the army would not immediately meet any protestors, instead watching the crowd halt, before peacefully making speeches outside the old Irish Parliament as had been previously planned in a show of defiance to the Government, with O'Duffy later stating that "we stopped to convey a message to the soldiers just one street from us, that we were the victim - not the aggressor. You dont shoot the victim". Nontheless, with the now vast crowd calling on O'Duffy to take power from the IRA backed Fianna Fail Government by public acclamation, a march now began on the Oireachtas Éireann into the path of the Irish Army who raised their weapons in the face of the advancing masses. The citizens of the city, linking arms and followed closely by blueshirts who hung further back to reduce the threat posed by the crowd, slowly and cautiously advanced on the Irish soldiers; yet after having ignored orders to halt repeatedly, were fired upon by their own army. The volley was devestating, killing thirty in a matter of seconds and injuring many more, yet the crowds did not break even as they cried out for help; instead it would be the soldiers who broke. Men lowered their weapons, and medics pushed forward to help injured citizens. For a nation so torn apart by war and instability the Irish Army could not bring itself to act as the aggressor against their own people in the name of a Government that, rightfully or wrongly, could have let the marches go on without issue and were led by a Chief Executive who still saluted honour guards of the IRA over even the Irish Army in some cases. Thus when the blueshirts charged forward, armed with simple weaponry, the Army relented from fighting back - many men instead just throwing down their weapons and giving in, or fleeing back towards the south of the city. Regardless, the Battle of Nassau Street would prove an immediate victory for the Blueshirts whom seized weapons and advanced on Oireachtas Éireann at speed.

With word having spread of the shooting and the army's caving from runners and officers fleeing back to inform the Government, a panic in the Oireachtas quickly ensued as Republicans fled; remarkably even including the Chief Executive De Valera who quickly jumped in a car and raced south. The rapid change in circumstances went further though; resulting in the now more confident and self-preservation driven Cumann na nGaedheal representatives suddenly becoming O'Duffy's greatest advocates, taking control of the Oireachtas and capturing several Fianna Fail representatives with snapped flagpoles for weapons before awaiting O'Duffy's arrival. With the descent of the crowds on the building and it's capture by the blueshirts whom had now spread throughout the city to secure key positions on O'Duffy's instructions, O'Duffy himself would march into the Oireachtas, met by Cosgrave and other leading Cumann na nGaedheal at the doors who, albeit reluctantly, handed over the reigns of power to the General in exchange for retaining a prominent role in his Government.

O'Duffy was far from 'in power' though despite having secured the offices of state, and the result of his March on Dublin, unlike in Italy, would be almost immediate descent into civil war. With the Senate and what remained of the Dáil appointing O'Duffy as Chief Executive, an immediate battle for legitimacy began between the Irish Republicans and Blueshirts, now merging forces with Cumann na nGaedheal to form a new political body headed by O'Duffy known as 'Fine Gael'. De Valera would quickly establish a new Government in Kilkenny, announcing in a speech to what remained of the Dail that had fled at Kilkenny Castle that he would under no circumstances 'relinquish the rightful democratic mandate of Fianna Fail to Govern in Ireland' and instructing the Army to recover Dublin at haste. The reality of the situation though, as De Valera knew, was that such a request in some parts of the Army would literally be met with deaf ears. Having been established as a pro-treaty body, the Republican Government had been unable to ensure the loyalty of the army was guarenteed, and thus having acted repeatedly against the Treaty with the appointment of Domhnall Ua Buachalla as Governor-General of Ireland in a clear political move along with the beginning of the Anglo-Irish Trade War, many in the Irish Army were happy to see De Valera gone. There were, of course, some loyal units however - even a majority of the army - and this force quickly set to work securing much of the nation for Fianna Fail's government. Within three days in fact almost the whole of Ireland bar counties Cork, Waterford, Dublin, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow were in Fianna Fail hands - a significant advantage.

As the conflict erupted, Fianna Fail had reason to be relatively confident with most of the army on their side, even picking a new hub of Government close to dublin rather than Galway. After all the first war had lasted just under eleven months - but they would be proven mistaken.

Not an exact control map, just de-facto county control

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[1] in reality, O'Duffy would call off the march and the Blueshirts would be banned in December.

 

[Persephone]

I'll be honest, you had me hooked with the title and the frontispiece. Watched.

 

[Laserfish]

This is a good start, you know a timeline is going to be a good one when it has a frontispiece for it. I'm watching too! By the way, you said that the two major PODs would be in the first two parts of the prelude, along with being in bold text, yet there only seems to be one POD in bold. Is it in a later update or am I mistaken? Do keep up the great work though!

 

[Sarthak]

The moment a fascist comes to power in Ireland, Britain invades.