The august coup and its impact is a difficult topic to discuss. We will never know for sure if it could have succeeded or if the provisional government could have lasted.
This is not meant to be an alternate history question, but rather a discussions about what you guys think on tge august coup. Could it have succeeded, and if it did how the world as a whole and the Soviet Union in particular look like, had socialism survived in the USSR?How would the 90s be, and what would happen in the 2000s? How would the USSR handle the digital revolution and how would it behave, once again beeing one of the few socialist countries on earth after 1989?
Yet, before discussing this, in my opinion extremely fascinating, topic there is some historical backround are a few important things to keep in mind:
First, most people actually wanted the Union to stay together. In march of 1991 a nationwide refferendum was held in the USSR, on wheater the various SSRs should become independent nation states or not. A majority of 77,85% voted for the preservation of the Union, with the turnout beeing 80% [1]. Yet at this point most people had allready lost faith in socialism, so its speculative what the people would do had the coup succeeded. The majority of deputies in the local supreme soviets supported independence for either ideological or opportunistic reasons, and because of this the USSR was eventually disbanded in OTL.
On wheater the provisional government could have lasted, there are multiple things to consider: First, many of the units involved in the coup remained loyal to the GKChP (parts of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the whole 4th Guards Tank Division carried out the coup till the bitter end [2] [3]. The Speznas group A also remained loyal untill it became clear that they could only archieve their goal at a terrible human cost [4]. I sadly couldn't find data on the Speznas group V, though). Though not 100% accurate, these units give us a rough idea on how the whole red army would have reacted. Though, as mentioned before, most people had lost faith in socialism by that point, many supported the coup because they didn't want the country their grandfathers had died for in the great patriotic war to fall appart.
On the Baltic states, the local authorities only decleared independence during the coup (except for Lithuania, but their declaration in march 11th wasn't recognized by Moscow untill after the coup). The command of the soviet forces in the Baltic states supported the GKChP [5], and therefore, if the coup had really succeeded, they would very likely have stayed part of the Union.
When it comes to the specific actions the GKChP could have taken, to increase the coups chances of success, well there are a few: I'm not a supporter of the "great man theory", yet Yeltsin was a very important symbol to anti-coup forces in OTL. His personality, his speeches and actions inspired many to take action against the GKChPs forces. Had the coupers managed to eliminate him (one way or another) that would have helped massively. Gorbatchev was another problem: As acting head of state and the party he still enjoyed a lot of popularity. The official reason for the coup was, that Gorbatchev had fallen ill, and that a provisional government had to be created in order to maintain public order. In my opinion the greatest mistake the coupers made, was to not take care of Gorbatchev. During the coup Gorbatchev was in the Crimea. Even if the GKChP had succeeded to keep control for a few more days than in OTL, he would have eventually returned to Moscow and showed everybody that he was "fine". With that, the official justification for the coup would have fallen appart. Yet if Gorbatchev had "tragicly succumbed to his illness", that could have secured the GKChPs control for more than a few additional days.
Finally, on wheater or not socialism could have been preserved in the Soviet Union in the long run: Thats a difficult question. And I would say yes, of course it could have worked. The new government could point out the obvious failures of Perestroika and Glasnost, such as the massive economic downturn that occured during the Gorbatchev era [5] [6] [7], and the rise of nationalist agitators. An with a mixture of patriotism and propaganda (or pollitical education, depending on which side you are on) they could win the people over to socialism again. It could have gone different, too, of course. But I don't think a soviet civil war is likely at all. Most people accross the Union, for or against the coup, didn't have weapons to fight one another. Yes, there would be protests, there would be riots, but anything more serious is unlikely. If the military stays loyal to the provisional government in the first couple of months, socialism in the USSR has a good chance. As time goes on, things return to normal. The "Congress of Peoples Deputies" is abolished and the "Supreme Soviet" once again becomes the highest legislative organ. The autonomy the republics gained suring the Gorbatchev era is reversed and everything kinda "goes back to normal".
Sources:
[1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum
[2]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2nd_Guards_Motor_Rifle_Division
[3]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Guards_Tank_Division
[4]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Group
[5]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perestroika
[6]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union
[7] IMF (1993, 1998)
This is not meant to be an alternate history question, but rather a discussions about what you guys think on tge august coup. Could it have succeeded, and if it did how the world as a whole and the Soviet Union in particular look like, had socialism survived in the USSR?How would the 90s be, and what would happen in the 2000s? How would the USSR handle the digital revolution and how would it behave, once again beeing one of the few socialist countries on earth after 1989?
Yet, before discussing this, in my opinion extremely fascinating, topic there is some historical backround are a few important things to keep in mind:
First, most people actually wanted the Union to stay together. In march of 1991 a nationwide refferendum was held in the USSR, on wheater the various SSRs should become independent nation states or not. A majority of 77,85% voted for the preservation of the Union, with the turnout beeing 80% [1]. Yet at this point most people had allready lost faith in socialism, so its speculative what the people would do had the coup succeeded. The majority of deputies in the local supreme soviets supported independence for either ideological or opportunistic reasons, and because of this the USSR was eventually disbanded in OTL.
On wheater the provisional government could have lasted, there are multiple things to consider: First, many of the units involved in the coup remained loyal to the GKChP (parts of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the whole 4th Guards Tank Division carried out the coup till the bitter end [2] [3]. The Speznas group A also remained loyal untill it became clear that they could only archieve their goal at a terrible human cost [4]. I sadly couldn't find data on the Speznas group V, though). Though not 100% accurate, these units give us a rough idea on how the whole red army would have reacted. Though, as mentioned before, most people had lost faith in socialism by that point, many supported the coup because they didn't want the country their grandfathers had died for in the great patriotic war to fall appart.
On the Baltic states, the local authorities only decleared independence during the coup (except for Lithuania, but their declaration in march 11th wasn't recognized by Moscow untill after the coup). The command of the soviet forces in the Baltic states supported the GKChP [5], and therefore, if the coup had really succeeded, they would very likely have stayed part of the Union.
When it comes to the specific actions the GKChP could have taken, to increase the coups chances of success, well there are a few: I'm not a supporter of the "great man theory", yet Yeltsin was a very important symbol to anti-coup forces in OTL. His personality, his speeches and actions inspired many to take action against the GKChPs forces. Had the coupers managed to eliminate him (one way or another) that would have helped massively. Gorbatchev was another problem: As acting head of state and the party he still enjoyed a lot of popularity. The official reason for the coup was, that Gorbatchev had fallen ill, and that a provisional government had to be created in order to maintain public order. In my opinion the greatest mistake the coupers made, was to not take care of Gorbatchev. During the coup Gorbatchev was in the Crimea. Even if the GKChP had succeeded to keep control for a few more days than in OTL, he would have eventually returned to Moscow and showed everybody that he was "fine". With that, the official justification for the coup would have fallen appart. Yet if Gorbatchev had "tragicly succumbed to his illness", that could have secured the GKChPs control for more than a few additional days.
Finally, on wheater or not socialism could have been preserved in the Soviet Union in the long run: Thats a difficult question. And I would say yes, of course it could have worked. The new government could point out the obvious failures of Perestroika and Glasnost, such as the massive economic downturn that occured during the Gorbatchev era [5] [6] [7], and the rise of nationalist agitators. An with a mixture of patriotism and propaganda (or pollitical education, depending on which side you are on) they could win the people over to socialism again. It could have gone different, too, of course. But I don't think a soviet civil war is likely at all. Most people accross the Union, for or against the coup, didn't have weapons to fight one another. Yes, there would be protests, there would be riots, but anything more serious is unlikely. If the military stays loyal to the provisional government in the first couple of months, socialism in the USSR has a good chance. As time goes on, things return to normal. The "Congress of Peoples Deputies" is abolished and the "Supreme Soviet" once again becomes the highest legislative organ. The autonomy the republics gained suring the Gorbatchev era is reversed and everything kinda "goes back to normal".
Sources:
[1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum
[2]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2nd_Guards_Motor_Rifle_Division
[3]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Guards_Tank_Division
[4]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Group
[5]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perestroika
[6]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union
[7] IMF (1993, 1998)
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