Solar Dreams: a history of solar energy (1878 - 2025)

[focus9912]

View attachment 848697
(A somewhat incorrect depiction of Atacama Desert, with the Minimum Tonne Equivalent in the center stage)​

That is a good illustration, I wonder how does would the illustrator that painted the picture would able to describe the characteristic of the solar collector.
Perhaps Le Petit Journal could have some role in reporting something else here...(*cough* ..arch... *cough* ..arch... *cough* ..arch... *cough*)

January, 1892​

​

Almonte, Tarapacá

Augustin Mouchot couldn't help but notice that how much Almonte had changed in the last few years. It went from a sleepy village in the desert, to a thriving town, and was well on its way to become a city thanks to the Franco-Chilena. If only the company itself didn't engulf it first and devour it like microorganisms did. It already dominated the town in three out of four directions. Constantino Serrano was already lobbying with the regional government to rebuild the town five kilometers to the north, promising assistance and funding to build a new and better city, the most modern in Chile.

Hmm, perhaps in the present day ITTL there would be a Iquique-Almonte conurbation (instead of the Greater Iquique IOTL) metropolitan area, which could become the 4th largest conurbation by population in Chile, surpassing Greater La Serena.

He noted a worker going riding a bicycle of the new model invented in Britain, and marvelled at the simplicity and efficiency of the design.

By the way, the story of cycling in South America is more fascinating than I thought.

He briefly wondered why he didn't think about that, and chuckled at the many, many times he'd heard pettier people say that what he's done is nothing special. "A child pointing a magnifying glass at an ant does the same" a critic said once.
But nobody did it at the scale he proposed before, and certainly nobody had done it at the scale he was working now. A scale that casted a shadow over all of Almonte, even if it was three kilometres away, taller than the insolent trees in the town square and even taller than the Church's bell tower. To his knowledge, the tallest structure in Chile, perhaps the tallest structure in South America. A giant designed by a Chilean engineer, Victorino Lastarria, who was thrilled to work with the Franco-Chilena, crediting the company with surviving the rainy winters in the south of Chile.

When I first check his name and saw his OTL greatest accomplishment. this make the size of the MTE (I think the full name could sound and looks better in French or Spanish) much more believable (and perhaps even too small). Glad to see he have a longer lifespan and actually are able to the completion of his accomplishment(s) ITTL.

The work also casted a shadow on himself. After almost thirty years, more than half of his adult life, he could say for certain that no new challenges awaited him. No new ideas to test, or new technologies to develop. From now on, all that remained was the refining of his technologies, to manage teams of scientist and engineers to squeeze the last percentages of efficiencies out of what once came from his mind. Weird still, he had encountered feelings at what he - and his Chileans associates and friends - had created in this inferno. A company that worked on ideas, not resources. A silent, safe and sanitary workplace for the workers. An business venture who could afford to experiment on a grand scale without risk.
His life vision casted a long shadow on himself.
Which is why Madame Goyenechea asked him if there was something wrong when he met her and her entourage at the new train station.
- Nothing, if anything, everything is going according to plan.
- And that worries you, Docteur?
- Not at all. It's just that... It's not a very pertinent to our schedule today. How was your trip?
- Very good. The railroad certainly changes things. And I see things have changed here, as well. - She said, looking towards the enormous solar collector. - So that's the thing that will drive my mines out of business? - She asked, waiting for a cheeky response from Mouchot.
- Of course it will. That machine alone will produce around 1/500th of Lota's annual production. Lota produces Anthracite, right?
- Bituminous, actually. - She responded.
- Make it 1/400th then. - And, as he predicted, Isidora Goyenechea betrayed an expression of awe for half a second, as she got in the coach that would lead them to the . He was victorious this time.
Isidora Goyenechea asked more about the numbers, about the building and maintenance costs, about the amount of workers, the energy production, and maximum temperatures reachable by the device. To each answer, she silently nodded.

And then, as she got closer to the device, an entirely different question:
- Are those... Sea Shanties I hear?
Augustin Mouchot sighed... after all his ideas for sun tracking proved unfeasible, he had to accept Alejandro Puig's ridiculous suggestion of treating it as a sailing rig, with a crew of people making constant adjustments using cables and ropes. Judicious use of mechanical advantage reduced the needed hands to just fifteen - ten during lunch time - but it was constant work. And thus, sea shanties were sung in the middle of the desert, only interrupted by the correcting barks of the supervisor.

And once they were close enough, that same supervisor shouted orders at them. He ordered them to stop, and to not come any closer.
- Do you have any idea to whom you're talking that way? - Isidora Goyenechea's assistance shouted back.
- Lady Goyenechea de Cousiño and Docteur Augustin Mouchot... and you. - The overseer said, matter-of-factly.
- Stop using that tone or you'll lose your job.
- I'll lose my job anyways if I don't use it and keep you from wondering into a hazardous area. Get close enough to the focus, and you'll begin to roast. It takes about three minutes to roast an entire cow to perfection at twenty meters of the focus... and you, specifically, look like the kind of person who'd get close enough to the focus for this warning to be needed. - the Supervisor - an ex Enlisted Sailor, Mouchot was willing to bet his entire participation in the Franco-Chilena - said with venom in his voice at the impertinent and well dressed man. - Lady Goyenechea, excuse me for my impertinence, but we're in a hazardous zone. While you're near the device, you'll listen to my instructions and do as I say.
- This is entirely reasonable, Mister...
- Hermes Soto. Everyone calls me Sargento.
- Very well, Sargento. How can we proceed?
- You'll start by putting on the protective gear. And then you'll join me at my overwatch position.

They all did as instructed (the man of the entourage did so with a bitter expression, as if he was suffering an indignity). Thick white garments covered them entirely, only punctuated by almost opaque vision slits. By the time they were done, everyone looked the same.
- We're conducting tests today. We have still to iron some troubles with the focusing array to reduce the focus area to its theoretical limits, but we're about 75% there. Enough to melt the calcite that makes most of the copper ore from Chuquicamata.
- And this is the daily amount it can melt? - Isidora Goyenechea asked.
- At these conditions, we ought to melt this tonne in about fifteen minutes. The tests we've conducted suggest we can melt 25 tonnes during the Winter Solstice and 55 during the Summer Solstice, with a daily average of 40 tonnes. 2% of that is copper.
- So we're looking at a minimum of 500 kilos of copper per day and... just shy of 150 tonnes of copper yearly? - Goyenechea asked.
- Indeed. Now, I have to ask you to check your equipment again. If you stare at the sun and it is uncomfortable, then change the gear you're wearing. The sun should look like a firefly through these.

Nobody complained, so Sargento began barking orders again. "Direction, two seaward, fast! Declination, three south, slow! Focus Angle, three clockwise! Focus point farther!"
Nothing happened at first, then a faint point on where the ore would be, which grew more and more intense at it outshone the sun. Then the beam became visible and, finally, the very ore began to glow from the heat. It was liquid at that point.

"Direction, break sun, fast!" - Sargento said, and the beam disappeared in seconds as the singing machine moved away from the sun entirely. - "You can now remove your visors". The ore, which was at ambient temperature a few moments ago, had been turned into a pool of lava, with the copper flowing through an exit. "Of course, this is just a demonstration and refining is a much more complex process. But any process that needs heat can be supplied this way." - Sargento said as the last part of his speech

Mouchot wasn't surprised, he'd done the calculations himself and knew that these results were to be expected. But Isidora Goyenechea and her entourage were.

- It melted a tonne of rock as if it was nothing, burning nothing*. - Isidora Goyenechea said. - How is coal going to compete against these monsters?

The Minimum Tonne Equivalent machine or, as Isidora Goyenechea herself dubbed them, "The Monster of Atacama" represent the summum of Augustin Mouchot's idea for a Solar Collector. Although the design would be refined in the next years and decades - with computerized and sensor-based solar tracking becoming feasible only in the following decade - it has remained more or less static in time. As a design that hasn't seen a significant change since it was first developed in the 1880s it is a resounding success. As Mouchot's dream as the alternative to coal, it has only been feasible outside Atacama in parts of California, Jordan, Libya and Namibia and failed everywhere else.

If it is considered a failure, though, one must consider that it was the failure that made the Atacama Desert one of the most strategically important parts of the world.

*: These calculations are accurate. I did the math and that's pretty much it.

Honestly..... I am genuinely speechless at the detail that are included in this update. Bravo...absolutely bravo.

Anyways, this marks the first chapter written using my new method to structure stories and make any pertinent calculation.

By the looks of it, it works.

I'd rather not change that part of history too much, as it'd turn a story in which Chile become an industrialized nation with a large R&D sector into an outright Chilewank. Chileans won't be the only ones playing with parabolic mirrors, so it stands to reason that the same discovery could be made earlier somewhere else.

It is alright, and now I think of it, I think.... nevermind, I think I would spoiled the fun of everybody else finding out.

An interesting possibility is an early development of radioastronomy. Point a parabolic mirror to the night sky (maybe thinking it can collect starlight and work at night, or something), and check the receiving radiowaves.

Agree.

The problem is that as the conditions ONLY happen in Atacama...... The region basically it's an eternal natural furnace that can produce a very sizeable amount molten Metals at a laughable fraction of the cost anywhere else.......

its a money check that signs itself.....and odds are that Argentina will WANT that money generator. They already were causing issues about the Atacama Puna region... And with the fact that the Atacama region is possibly an inexhaustible natural resource for the smelting of metals..... Odds are that some in Argentina WILL propose to control the region.....

And then there's Bolivia, who already wanted that region even before it was profitable...

Well there could be some effect to the ongoing territorial disputes in Chile...ahh...I think there could be some trouble brewing from way up north, oh dear.

 

[Zireael]

Now they need to come up with a solar molten salt collector aka "concentrated solar", as this allows energy to be stored (easily enough that they can do it way ahead of IOTL schedule)

 

[ScorchedLight]

Now they need to come up with a solar molten salt collector aka "concentrated solar", as this allows energy to be stored (easily enough that they can do it way ahead of IOTL schedule)

I was thinking about this same problem. Molten Salt "batteries" are an obvious solution to store heat (and thus work) in its enthalpy of fusion. The only problem is that they're a bit cold for some industrial processes.

It's too early to make more thorough calcs, but the device in Atacama can create around 30 GJ of energy per day.
To completely melt a gram of aluminium oxide starting from 0 °C, you need 1942 KJ (of that, 138 J are enthalpy of fusion = "heat without drop of temperature"). By that point, the medium will be at 2050 °C, which is more than enough for steelmaking.

The challenge would be to keep the material near its fusion point, to avoid the "wasted" heat which rises the temperature.

 

[NotStaleBread]

Something interesting about Arabia is that the ideal places for solar development are on opposite side of the country from the un explored oil fields. It might affect the development of its industry.

Beyond just the placement of industry, this might affect whether the Saudis conquer Hejaz or not (or even get conquered in turn) due to increased development in the Hejaz. This is just the first thing that comes to mind, of course. I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough to plot out how the development of solar would change things in Arabia, particularly since I have no idea how you will change things like WW1.

 

[ScorchedLight]

March, 1892
Bletchley, England

Under an incandescent light, Morgan Cottrell looked himself into the mirror. He could hardly recognize the face in front of him. A dishevelled, tired face that hadn't gotten a good night's sleep in weeks. As the razor touched his skin, he could finally understand why Charles Babbage chose to abandon the construction of the Analytical Engine. Even with fifty years of technological advances, it proved to be a challenge. Something that would come in the coming century, perhaps, but that refused to appear on this one.

The first swipe of the razor cut through those weird thoughts, and revealed the man he used to be before the machine became his obsession. Whatever fate wanted, Morgan had brought the machine, kicking and screaming, into reality. It was done, he had vanquished it, and now he was readying himself to see his victory over it. He would do so in his best suit, as if he was in an audience with Her Majesty herself.

The scrawny beard disappeared, his hair was tamed, and his natural dignity returned, leaving only a remnant of the obsession in his tired eyes. He dressed in his best clothes, and even sprinkled himself with perfume.

In this renewed state, he'd visit his defeated foe. It'd be a few hours still before dawn, but Morgan didn't want to wait another minute. He needed to see the Analytical Engine in action, and the short trip to the warehouse - fireproofed and under heavy guard, leaving nothing to chance - didn't feel short enough. A guard challenged his coach driver, and then demanded to see if Morgan Cottrell was the passenger. The guard didn't apologize when he recognized him, and simply gave the order for others to open the gate and let them through. Morgan approved of that.

And once inside the warehouse, the Analytical Engine stood there. He was expecting more, but it was just a silent piece of machinery under the electric lights. A lone technician stood on the other extreme of the machine, doing some last minute adjustments which Morgan didn't want to interrupt. Not on the verge of success. The technician finished his work, filled in some paperwork, and approached Morgan.

- Good morning, Mr. Cottrell. We weren't expecting you until noon. I'd be more presentable if I knew you'd come.
- Don't worry... - Morgan didn't recall his name, nor his face. - I'm sorry. You have me at a disadvantage.
- Patrick Smith, Mr. Cottrell. I'm on the maintenance team... never thought that a Doctorate in Mathematics would lead me here.
- You - Morgan stopped before insulting the man with the question.
- Yes. This part of the job is beneath my paygrade, and a watchmaker or even a mechanic with some education could do it now. But as we were building it, it was quite a different story. I was spending a bottle of ink each week just solving problems and making sketches to make this chunk of metal do math... but we made it.
- So it is ready?
- In my opinion, yes. We've run some limited tests - calculating single square roots, logarithms, a few arrayed problems - and the machine worked as envisioned. The only difference with today's test is that it will be the first to be programmed. - Patrick began explaining the concept of a program, but stopped once he realized Morgan knew. - Maybe you'd like some time alone with your machine? - He asked instead.
- Now that you say it, yes. I'd like that. And I suspect you had a long night, right?
- I've been here since midnight. I don't know what time it is, but I'd like to catch some sleep before the big test at dawn.
- Don't let me retain you, Dr. Smith.

And with that, Morgan was left alone. He felt as the first rays of the sun pierced the warehouse, and the brass and steel and iron of the machine became more apparent. It didn't look like mere machinery under those circumstances, but rather a sleeping being.

More people came, until the warehouse bubbled with activity. What everyone was doing, Morgan had no idea, except for the man manning the steam engine which would power the device. It was gathering steam, and would soon be put to work.

- Mechanical checks are ready. The datasets and instructions are loaded. We have a computer team ready to check the results. We're ready to begin, Mr. Cottrell. - Said Benjamin Bucknell.

- This is it. - Morgan said. Let's start with the test.

- Start the program! Short round! - Bucknell shouted.

The crankshaft began rotating, and the sleeping entity started humming. Every ten seconds or so, the machine clacked instead, then it made a sound not unlike rain on metal, and then resumed humming.

- After each value is computed, it resets itself. Some data is carried between resets, but for this short example we won't need it. We're running a modified version of Ada Lovelace's algorithm to calculate Bernoulli numbers - what those were, Morgan had no idea. - Since we want to test if the program runs correctly, we will compare the results of a quick run with those calculated by a team of computers. They've already started to calculate the first twelve numbers with ten decimal positions... while our machine will do the same with thirty decimals. After that, we'll run a hundred Bernoulli numbers with fifty significant numbers. After that, we'll leave the machine running for a day calculating statistical values with ten digits. We estimate that it will take about eight hours to compute them.

The results of the program were ready, and were given to the computer team to compare. They, in turn, were still working on the last values. Even with the simplified exercise, it took time.

Once they finished, the results were compared by Bucknell. Without any fanfare, he announced that the machine's results were in line with the ones of the computer team.

And then he did it again. With a broken voice and on the verge of tears. Seeing his employee like that, he couldn't help but feel a bit of pity.

- Are you well, my friend? - He asked.
- It's nothing. Well, actually. It's everything for me. Ada Lovelace was my first love when I was a just a boy, and I think about her every day. Seeing her work validated... it hits me. It feels like a weight has been lifted from me. This is my tribute to her, and my thanks for setting me on this strange path. What do we do now?
- Now? - Morgan Cottrell looked at the men in the warehouse. They were dishevelled and scrawny and exhausted. The machine demanded just as much of them as it did from him.

- Now we stop the machine. Tell the men that they've earned a two week vacation. A fully paid vacation. - He said.
- Sir? - Bucknell asked.
- I know what it feels like. What we've achieved here, we've crossed the Rubicon, and we've yet to fully understand what this machine can do. We need the team rested and ready for further testing... and improvement. In the meantime, we have to document our research, so we can replicate this machine.
- I see. I'll get a team of archivists ready. With your permission, I think we ought to have at least a third of the technical team present to advise the archivists. So we should give them a staggered vacation schedule. - Morgan liked whenever Bucknell showed initiative. He was a reliable man, and a contributor to this project's success.
- Very well. So that'll be a month before things go back to normal. It should be enough. There's one last thing, though.
- What is it?
- How would you call this thing?
- Well... it's a computer. It computes. That'd be my first option.
- People will mistake it for a computer room. It isn't memorable enough. Don't you have something better?
- Actually... I was thinking of something, for a while now. Analytical Differential Apparatus. Ada.
- That is... quite good. It sticks. I like it. Let's call them that.

The reconstruction of Charles Babbage's Analytical Engine - renamed ADA by Morgan Cottrell - didn't have any immediate effects on the nascent Solar Energy industry, but it directly influenced the direction Cottrell's company would take. The ability to process data at a pace unseen before proved to be profitable in the very short term, and gave him a competitive advantage over the Franco-Chilena's activities in Europe. It could provide a dataset and an analemma, which the operator coud use to set without having to make guesses or further corrections during the day.

In the medium term, numerical analysis found a natural use in the new field of Helioptics, to the point that even the Franco-Chilena became a customer of its analytics (the moratorium on selling the devices imposed by the British Government negated the option of exporting or leasing one to Almonte, despite the amicable relationship between the two companies). Although other industries would eventually see the need for this service - a primitive analogue to modern Finite Element Analysis - the first one to be truly shocked by it was Solar energy.

 

[Veblen Fudge]

Out of curiosity, what sort of immediate demands could ADA fill in 1892 London? Which industries would be fuelling Cottrell's new short-term profits?

Once again a terrific update. Love it

 

[CountDVB]

well, this is completely intriguing!

Cue Lord Byron rising from the dead to see his daughter’s legacy still live on in some form.

 

[holyknight]

Out of curiosity, what sort of immediate demands could ADA fill in 1892 London? Which industries would be fuelling Cottrell's new short-term profits?

Once again a terrific update. Love it

... Besides many ones... Ironically enough the Army and the Navy. ADA enables them to quickly re-adapt ranging tables based on the weight of the round, and the potence of the propeller. Also it would allow to include the wind on the calculations

Moreover it's highly likely that it will push an earlier development on more Aerodynamic Shells in order to maximize the precision, range and final speed of the shells.

Cause and effect..... Its possible that several technical advancements will come out of having an advanced calculation system.

The issue is if the British government realizes what was created, and possibly limits the selling of these initial ADA ONLY to British Dominion localized companies and universities.... Given the radical advantage of such machines

 

[TheImperialTheorist]

Fascinating... the beginning of computers decades earlier... It'll definitely help in a variety of fields, especially in calculating the position of the sun as time progresses.

 

[Zireael]

Cottrell is great for realizing they need a vacation not only to celebrate but just to have fresher minds <3

 

[Zenevidas]

Just finished

 

[holyknight]

Cottrell is great for realizing they need a vacation not only to celebrate but just to have fresher minds <3

Later it will come the start of the race for faster mechanical processing...... As they reach a limit to conventional mechanical systems, odds are that someone will fall on electro mechanical systems as a way to shorten further the time of the calculations.....

 

[Ogrebear]

Nice to read computing has taken a Great Leap Forward. I can see Ada machines becoming very important for warfare calculations and statistics.

I do hope Ada ends up in a museum somewhere and not broken up.

 

[ScorchedLight]

(I can't format on my phone)

Untangling the Mystery of the World’s First Rooftop Solar Panel - bellingcat

An inventor poses for a photo alongside his creation, then disappears.

www.bellingcat.com

Here's an interesting story about one of the earliest photos of a photovoltaic array, and whether it was Fritts or Cove on it.

Cove's photovoltaic cell is interesting, as it was a design that matched early Semiconductor-based solar cells, but could be made with a pre WWI industrial and scientific base.

Out of curiosity, what sort of immediate demands could ADA fill in 1892 London? Which industries would be fuelling Cottrell's new short-term profits?

Once again a terrific update. Love it

Data processing, which in this case would mean the creation of tables for artillery, census statistics, nautical astronomy, and perhaps scientific research. It would excel in areas where the problem can be translated into a program .

Interestingly enough, the Analytical Engine was Turning complete, allowing for some complex programming.

I estimate the following progression, as the programming method is refined and better understood:

1.- Tedious and repetitive simple tasks
2.- Tedious and repetitive complex tasks
3.- Singular, large and complex tasks

Later it will come the start of the race for faster mechanical processing...... As they reach a limit to conventional mechanical systems, odds are that someone will fall on electro mechanical systems as a way to shorten further the time of the calculations.....

For what I could gather of this device, the clock was tied to the engine's RPM. Running it too fast will threaten to damage the system, so I think the very first avenue of improvement would be to make the machine capable of working under those conditions. Miniaturisation and electromechanical elements might have to wait a bit before this alternative is exhausted (which shouldn't take long).

I was thinking about the pressure to adopt binary logic in mechanical or electromechanical machines.

Nice to read computing has taken a Great Leap Forward. I can see Ada machines becoming very important for warfare calculations and statistics.

I do hope Ada ends up in a museum somewhere and not broken up.

Sadly, if history of computing in our world is any indication, early machines won't have a high survival rate because they'll be in for a period of rapid advancements and obsolescence.

Recreating Babbage's machine, on the other hand, won't be much of a problem. Cottrell's efforts documenting it will help with that.

 

[Veblen Fudge]

Data processing, which in this case would mean the creation of tables for artillery, census statistics, nautical astronomy, and perhaps scientific research. It would excel in areas where the problem can be translated into a program .

Hmm, it looks like Cottrell is going to be seeing a lot of government work in the near future. Army, Navy and Civilian. I wonder if this might draw too much of the wrong kind of attention... Eventually the generals are going to ask who keeps delivering these immaculate artillery tables, and might be incentivised to take that technology for themselves. Or at least place barriers to prevent it from falling into the hands of enemy nations.

Or it may be beneficial. A big government development grant could do wonders for procuring new talent and material. However you decide to play this, I think Cottrell might be in for a turbulent few years.

 

[Ogrebear]

How is Ada doing output?

Punch cards? Printout? Screen only?

 

[e of pi]

"Screen"? Might be lucky to have it doing wheels with numbers on it that somebody transcribes.

 

[Teiresias]

How is Ada doing output?

Punch cards? Printout? Screen only?

According to Wikipedia’s article on Babbage’s Analytical Engine:

For output, the machine would have a printer, a curve plotter, and a bell. The machine would also be able to punch numbers onto cards to be read in later. It employed ordinary base-10 fixed-point arithmetic.

 

[Hayatgheibi]

How much weaker is climate change in this timeline? I've been thinking a lot recently about what tech would be necessary to reach net zero sooner rather than later, I started a thread on the topic but it went nowhere.

 

[ScorchedLight]

How much weaker is climate change in this timeline? I've been thinking a lot recently about what tech would be necessary to reach net zero sooner rather than later, I started a thread on the topic but it went nowhere.

As of 1892, there's not much in the way of a change, although the theoretical framework on greenhouse gases is known in the scientific community.

It will take a while to reach to the point where climate change is noticed and action is taken.