Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

Possibly there won't be a home guard.
My first thought was: "Nooooooo, there'd be no Dad's Army!"

My second thought was: They'll still need them for line of communications security work and the like, so I would expect that the Home Guard would still be formed, just that due to the lessening of Invasion Panic, they'll be better equipped initially.
 
Possibly there won't be a home guard.
Well, they still need people to help man the AA guns, keep up morale, etc.
And we would not have this wonderful song:

Could you please oblige us with a Bren gun?
The lack of one is wounding to our pride
Last night we found the cutest, little German parachutist
He looked at our kit and giggled a bit, and laughed until he cried
 
Oh, I'm certain there'll be a Home Guard. With Jerry right across the Channel an invasion needs to be considered, even if it's only air-dropped commandos stuck in Surrey. Training and equipping a segment of the population that would otherwise be unavailable for service (farmers mostly, to my knowledge) isn't a terrible idea when you're worried a parachute brigade might descend from the clouds on short notice.
 
My first thought was: "Nooooooo, there'd be no Dad's Army!"

My second thought was: They'll still need them for line of communications security work and the like, so I would expect that the Home Guard would still be formed, just that due to the lessening of Invasion Panic, they'll be better equipped initially.
not need so many, easing the equipping issues
 
How about a second or third order effect...since most of the soldiers evacuated have their personal weapons, is there any need for the British to buy all those 1917 Enfields in 30.06? Instead of being sent east, could they been sent to places like Wake Island and the Phillipines?
 
My first thought was: "Nooooooo, there'd be no Dad's Army!"

My second thought was: They'll still need them for line of communications security work and the like, so I would expect that the Home Guard would still be formed, just that due to the lessening of Invasion Panic, they'll be better equipped initially.
One major reason for the Home Guard was to give those who had to man the Home Front something to make them feel they were doing their bit. Its why there were Home Guard units in places the Germans would/could not realistically attack, it helped morale and the all in it together ethos.
 

perfectgeneral

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This isn't the paranoid West during the Cold War. I doubt that they'd talk about the Valiants, but the Panzers being displayed on Pathe News at the Cinema would be a thing.
Propaganda only requires the Pz I/II the III and IV can be D noticed without impacting this.
 
29 May 1940. Calais, France.

The firing died away, as the Citadel, 30th Brigade’s HQ, finally fell to the Germans. Brigadier Nicholson and his staff were captured and marched off into captivity. There were still one or two strongpoints in the town and around the docks, but for the 10th Panzer Division, capturing the Citadel marked the completion of a most difficult and costly operation.

The British and French defenders had sold themselves highly, overcome as much by the lack of ammunition and water as by enemy action. The Infantry Tanks of the 8th Bn RTR had provided the infantry with much needed support, but the lack of ammunition had meant that they were abandoned and destroyed by their own crews more than by German fire.

The Royal Navy had provided much needed fire support and a number of small craft, such as echo-sounding yacht Conidaw and the launch Samois had ran in and out carrying in supplies and carrying out the wounded. For five days a Brigade of Infantry, with two companies of tanks, had held off a Panzer Division. The decision not to evacuate the 30th Brigade from Calais the way the 20th Guards Brigade had been pulled out of Boulogne, was done partly to placate the French. Holding Calais to the last man and last round had been the sacrifice asked of Nicholson and his men. They had done more than had been expected of them.

29 May – 3 June 1940. Dunkirk, France.

During the night of 28/29 May more of the BEF had withdrawn in line with the plans made for them. Things became a bit more complicated as the roads towards the coast were congested as both the French and British withdrew, the French heading for the western side of the pocket, the British to the eastern side, often crossing across one another. The French were further hampered by still being mostly horse-powered rather than the motorised British formations.

Daylight saw the procession of ships and boats back and forth between the mole and the beaches, all the while an aerial battle took place above them. Lord Gort had received a request from the Prime Minister to look at sending a relief force to Calais. The commander of the BEF could only imagine someone poring over a map, and not being fully aware of the situation, and so decided it was request to be ignored.

What worried Gort more was the position of the French on the Aa from Gravelines, they had been under heavy pressure from the Germans and, with some British support in the form of Infantry Tanks from 8th Bn RTR had managed to hold. If they withdrew to the canal at Mardyck, as they were threatening to do, then the Germans would be in position to bring up their artillery to within range of Dunkirk. Gort therefore ordered that the remnant of the First Army Tank Brigade to support the French to hold back the Germans to the best of their ability. For the first time elements of the 4th, 7th and 8th Battalions Royal Tank Regiment finally came together, originally all three were meant to form the Tank Brigade. This hadn’t happened before the disaster of the German attack had unfolded. The surviving A11 and A12 Infantry Tanks were barely more than two full Companies worth, but they stiffened the French forces, until the tanks were destroyed by enemy action, or by their own crews after running out of fuel and ammunition.

Over the days that followed the British and French rear-guard troops held off repeated attacks, while the evacuation carried on apace from the beaches and the mole. As far as possible the British troops carried their personal weapons as they evacuated. Some of the units which were in better shape also managed to take some of their heavier support weapons, but most heavy machine guns, mortars, anti-tank guns, and almost all ammunition, were left with the rear-guard to strengthen their positions.

At 23:30hrs on 3 June the signal was received in Dover from Captain Tennant, the RN commander of the evacuation “BEF evacuated.” He had sent it after he, accompanied with General Harold Alexander, the senior Army Officer, toured the beaches and harbour in a motorboat calling for any British troops to show themselves, none did.

193000 BEF soldiers had been evacuated, part of the total of 388000, which would include French troops evacuated the following day and night.

NB Text in italic differs from OTL. Obviously Calais fell earlier, but I think I've added about a day extra of holding out. The other change if the French continuing to hold the line at Gravelines, which takes some pressure off the defenses as the German artillery are a bit farther away. The rest of the evacuation has to be carried out pretty much as OTL. Personal weapons would have been easier to be carried aboard ship from the mole rather than the beaches, but there aren't that many drivers to say that the evacuation could have been done that much better than it was. It was extraordinary in itself, and anything much better is heading for ASB. As OTL all the infantry tanks are lost (except the 3 Valiants of course) and having the 8 RTR in Calais rather than 3 RTR means that there's about fifty less infantry tanks in the UK.
The Calais defense, latest Noel Coward movie in theatres later that year.
 

perfectgeneral

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Anyone know how much the capture of Tiger 131 was advertised? I'd call that a champion example of what you're talking about OTL to compare to.
Captured off the North African battlefield in April 1943, inspected by the King June 1943, paraded around UK on display Oct 1943 and, finally, inspected and tested. You couldn't make it up.
 
Captured off the North African battlefield in April 1943, inspected by the King June 1943, paraded around UK on display Oct 1943 and, finally, inspected and tested. You couldn't make it up.
Well there you go, there's your historical precedent for putting the tanks on display, perhaps after they've been put through their paces at Bovington, this time?
 
So some thoughts about what is going to come next. Mainly thinking about the last acts in France and British planning going forward.

Firstly there are still British troops on the continent and they are fighting. The 51st (highland) Division and 1st Armoured Division for example. Now the events surrounding this force and it's subsequent evacuation will likely remain the same however there is likely to be an important contrast between the fighting around Abbeville and the earlier fighting around Arras and back toward Dunkirk. That is the performance of the tanks, if I recall correctly the 1st Armoured Division was mainly a formation of Cruiser and Light Tanks. Those tanks will suffer at the hands of German AT guns far more than the infantry tanks of the BEF that was just evacuated. This will just reinforce the lesson that the Infantry tanks are the way to go, or at least the Valiant is the way to go.

Secondly the capture of the panzers will be very enlightening for the British. Firstly they will have a far better idea of the capabilities but more importantly for us and Carden is the speed of the tanks. The Panzer 3 and 4 are both 25mph(ish) tanks, realising that and comparing it to what Britain has in the Valiant really plays in it's favour. The Valiant being a much tougher tank than any of the German tanks whilst being only marginally slower, why do you need anything else?.

All this should just reinforce the decision Britain has basically made to focus on the Valiant. Yes their is a cruiser version coming as well as the Crusader and Matilda II but as it stands the majority of Britain's tank production for the foreseeable is going to be the infantry Valiant just from decisions already made. I would suspect some people will start to ask the question "why are we bothering with a cruiser version when the infantry does pretty much all we need a tank to do already?". Now not much will change in the short term, the need to re-arm will see to that but as the mad rush subsides somewhat and things can be looked at then.


So summary/ TLDR,
Cruisers left in France are likely being roughly handled comparing poorly to the infantry tanks. The captured Panzer's don't make them seem like wonder tanks and in fact in some ways they compare poorly to the Valiant. Britain has got most of it's tank production tied up in the infantry Valiant already anyway. Once the rush to rearm subsides it is probable that some more production is diverted toward the Infantry Valiant.
Then North Africa.
 
Oh it's better than that. With the A11 out of production, and the A12 slow to produce, the rush production design will be the Valiant. Oh, and production of the Valiant started in February (right after production of the A11 finished), so they already have over 100, probably significantly more.
 
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Oh it's better than that. With the A11 out of production, and the A12 slow to produce, the rush production design will be the Valiant. Oh, and production of the Valiant started in February (right after production of the A11 finished), so they already have over 100, probably significantly more.

As it stands there isn't much Britain can do to increase or change up it's production numbers beyond what has already been done, there are too many bottlenecks and demands post the fall of France. Yes some things have improved over OTL so the bottlenecks aren't as bad but they will possibly still be there. What may well happen is a shift in priorities from OTL, so think of the Covenanter being built in hull form but with no 2pdr's due to a shortage. TTL the shortage in 2pdr's wont be as acute if it exists at all due to the changes brought about by Carden. On top of that the 6pdr is on the way as well in a separate supply chain so it won't impact 2pdr numbers at all whilst still providing more guns. If the shortage still appears in some form though then the Valiant gets priority TTL I would imagine.

I don't see Britain getting away from the panic completely TTL. There is still going to be a measure of keep building what you are building, just it wont last as long and what is being built is mostly significantly better. What may well happen though is any planned production lines for non Valiant tanks that aren't up and running yet may well get changed to Valiant production if they aren't too close to starting production.
 
As it stands there isn't much Britain can do to increase or change up it's production numbers beyond what has already been done, there are too many bottlenecks and demands post the fall of France. Yes some things have improved over OTL so the bottlenecks aren't as bad but they will possibly still be there. What may well happen is a shift in priorities from OTL, so think of the Covenanter being built in hull form but with no 2pdr's due to a shortage. TTL the shortage in 2pdr's wont be as acute if it exists at all due to the changes brought about by Carden. On top of that the 6pdr is on the way as well in a separate supply chain so it won't impact 2pdr numbers at all whilst still providing more guns. If the shortage still appears in some form though then the Valiant gets priority TTL I would imagine.
In addition, for the next while at least, you can also grab any 'spare' pom-poms, as, at least against non-tanks it should be pretty effective, and any of the A13, Matilda II or Valiant turrets should be big enough to allow for full 14-round belts, rather than the puny 3-round belts for the A11. The 3.7 inch might also be available.

I don't see Britain getting away from the panic completely TTL. There is still going to be a measure of keep building what you are building, just it wont last as long and what is being built is mostly significantly better. What may well happen though is any planned production lines for non Valiant tanks that aren't up and running yet may well get changed to Valiant production if they aren't too close to starting production.
At this point, the only non-Valiant tanks in the works that I'm aware of are those belonging to Vulcan and Nuffield, which are also in production, and the lights, which are likely to either be dropped, or at least to take a back seat in production terms. It's also possible (if probably not likely) that the US will say yes to building their own take on the Valiant, and shipping it over, plus keeping some back for their own use (better than the M3, and available earlier).
 
So how long before the Hollywood movie with Errol Flynn starring in the American defence of Calais comes out? :smileskisses:
Somehow all the characters that get a lot of screen time are Americans who joined the British Army and the tanks look a lot like Shermans. David Nivan may get a bit part.
 
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Speaking of the Americans, after testing the Valiant, do you think there's a possibility of a joint Anglo-American design committee for the next tank after the Victor?
 
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