They might put more effort into deploying the 47mm Type 1, and develop its 57mm successor to provide better reliability against Matildas. They might also follow up Chi-He with the OG Chi-To earlier as a result (lighter than the final one, 57mm gun and 50mm thick armor only).
Note that both Chi-He and the 47mm gun started development in 1940-41 as a response to the problems encountered with the Soviets in 1939. Chi-To development started in April 1942 and was fully specified in August, with captured Stuarts also providing data for the development of a synchromesh gearbox.
When Japan encountered heavier Allied tanks or got reports from Germany, the policy shifted in July 1943 when we got the dev of Chi-To, Chi-Ri, 75mm and 105mm guns. As such facing more and heavier British armor as early as 1942 could bring the policy shift several months forward.