What if Germany won WW1 “quick” in the west in 1914/1915. How would the Eastern Front develop?

And what would be the peace treaty between the CP’s and the Russian Empire?
 
What if Germany won WW1 “quick” in the west in 1914/1915. How would the Eastern Front develop?

And what would be the peace treaty between the CP’s and the Russian Empire?
Germany escalated the events leading to WW1 in large part cause it believed Russia would be unbeatable if given the time to industrialize. If they win in the West, they won't accept anything less than the declawing of Russia, so expect something at least as harsh as Brest-Litovsk
 
Germany would undertake an analogue to the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive in 1915 before even considering any peace terms, as it would want the big victory it was capable of under its belt in order to get the best peace deal possible.

That said, Russia was deep into Eaat Prussia and AH in early 1915 so wouldn't be offering terms just because France is out.
 
The Austrians are the ones who will most want to limit the German victory. With France defeated, the Austrians will need the Russians to act as a break on Germany. Whether the Austrians allied with Russia is strong enough is another matter.

Germany would have reasons to limit itself against Russia. Other than pushing the Russian army from the frontier- which could be done by occupying the fortresses, Germany's main interest is keeping the Russian monarchy alive.

The Germans will want the Russian navy for the war against Britain. India and Africa would be far more profitable anyway
 
limit the German victory. With France defeated, the Austrians will need the Russians to act as a break on Germany. Whether the Austrians allied with Russia is strong enough is another matter.
German victory is also a CP victory. The Austrians have no reason to limit their own victory. They'll want their pound of flesh in the form of Germany giving them a free hand ans supporting their ambitions in the Balkans as well as some influence in Ukraine, but they have absolutely no reason to prefer Russia over Germany.
Germany would have reasons to limit itself against Russia
Again, not really. Germany feared Russia's potential the most out of the Entente. They would want to make sure there isn't a round.
Germany's main interest is keeping the Russian monarchy alive.
Why would it even be? As far as Germany is concerned Russia can use whatever system of government they want as long as they are crippled enough by the treaty to not be a threat.
The Germans will want the Russian navy for the war against Britain.
The Russian navy would make absolutely no difference against the Royal Navy.
India and Africa would be far more profitable anyway
The Germans never though to defeat Britain completely, it was simply impossible. And to harbor ambitions on India is ridiculous.
 
The Germans never though to defeat Britain completely, it was simply impossible.
It is also completely unneccessary. If Germany has defeated France and made peace with Russia, Britain obviously will make peace with Germany. Sometimes people forget that war is not a videogame you have to play until the other player is completely defeated.
 
It is also completely unneccessary. If Germany has defeated France and made peace with Russia, Britain obviously will make peace with Germany. Sometimes people forget that war is not a videogame you have to play until the other player is completely defeated.
Britain will mop up the German Colonies and try to get something out of the peace in return, such as no German bases on the channel or a rump Belgium.
 
While it's not exactly the most plausible outcome, I think a WWI TL where France is defeated but the Russian Steamroller somehow goes all the way to Berlin would be quite original and mildly hilarious.
 
While it's not exactly the most plausible outcome, I think a WWI TL where France is defeated but the Russian Steamroller somehow goes all the way to Berlin would be quite original and mildly hilarious.
Well I think Berlin is maybe not realistic, but I can off course see Russia marching deeper into Germany than only East Prussia, this would also be a nice POD: Germans sending no extra troops to East Prussia so they could continue their advance in the West and maybe win there, but the Russians as a result push deeper into Germany. Would be a very interesting Eastern Front after France is defeated.
 
If they win in the West, they won't accept anything less than the declawing of Russia, so expect something at least as harsh as Brest-Litovsk
After Gorlice-Tarnow the Germans were asking the Russians only for minor border rectifications around Silesia.

Congress Poland would be the max, but I don’t see it as likely. With France brought to heel Russia will seem a lot less dangerous.

Possibly Bessarabia to Romania, maybe parts of Batum and Kars to the Turks if they make a big enough fuss about it.

The real objective of the Central Powers in early and victorious peace treaty with Russia would be their renunciation of interest in the Yugoslav question, leaving the Serb states to their fate. That would be an essential term.
 
Last edited:
Britain will mop up the German Colonies and try to get something out of the peace in return, such as no German bases on the channel or a rump Belgium.
After France is out and Russia made peace, no they are not. Mind you, they (and their allies, like South Africa, Australia, etc) probably already control a significant part of the German colonies. They will not bother trying to get the remaining one. They will simply start negotiating.

Actualy, that isn't even true. What realy would happen is that after France falls and than Russia decides to sue for peace, Britain simply joins Russia and sign an all encompassing peace treaty. And yes, I will agree that Britain will agree to quiet a lot for a free Belgium (although obviously not any British land, including British colonies).
 
German victory is also a CP victory. The Austrians have no reason to limit their own victory.
They have every readon to limit Germany's victory if they want to escape Bacaria's fate.

How many European coalitions have broken down over the spoils? How often do enemies reconcile

They'll want their pound of flesh in the form of Germany giving them a free hand ans supporting their ambitions in the Balkans as well as some influence in Ukraine, but they have absolutely no reason to prefer Russia over Germany.
They want a check on Germany though.
Again, not really. Germany feared Russia's potential the most out of the Entente. They would want to make sure there isn't a round.
Germany feared Russia as part of a coalition. Russia without France is much, much weaker. I did say they would want some breathing space.
Why would it even be? As far as Germany is concerned Russia can use whatever system of government they want as long as they are crippled enough by the treaty to not be a threat.
The Kaiser feared revolution the most. Preserving monarchism is a prime interest
The Russian navy would make absolutely no difference against the Royal Navy.
The Russians had seven dreadnaughts and four battlecruisers building. More than enough coupled with German fleet to end British hegemony of the seas
The Germans never though to defeat Britain completely, it was simply impossible. And to harbor ambitions on India is ridiculous.
The idea that the British could withstand a hegemonic Germany is the ridiculous idea. He who controls the continent, controls the continent's fleets He who controls the continent's fleets, controls Britain.

This is why Britain fought. This is what Haldane meant when he said that "I fear that in two or three years we will go down to a tremendous combination"
 
Last edited:
It is also completely unneccessary. If Germany has defeated France and made peace with Russia, Britain obviously will make peace with Germany. Sometimes people forget that war is not a videogame you have to play until the other player is completely defeated.
After France is out and Russia made peace, no they are not. Mind you, they (and their allies, like South Africa, Australia, etc) probably already control a significant part of the German colonies. They will not bother trying to get the remaining one. They will simply start negotiating.

Actualy, that isn't even true. What realy would happen is that after France falls and than Russia decides to sue for peace, Britain simply joins Russia and sign an all encompassing peace treaty. And yes, I will agree that Britain will agree to quiet a lot for a free Belgium (although obviously not any British land, including British colonies).
The Kaiser has spent his entire reign trying to get naval hegemony and he's just going to throw it away?

He has his own fleet and Austria's. The French are going to be given the choice of turning thei's over or watching Paris burn to the ground.

Italy will kiss and make up and there's the Russian navy as well.

And you think the Kaiser is just pulling out of Belgium?
 
The Kaiser has spent his entire reign trying to get naval hegemony and he's just going to throw it away?
Yes absolutely. Peace is generaly far better than war. A war is very costly. In reality Germany has very little to gain to extend the war. It basicly has gained a lot with the defeat of France. Why bother fighting Britain and lose a lot of men, sips, bullets, etc, just to gamble for some potential gains in the future, which might not measure up to what it will lose? As I said, in reality, war is not a computer game. Peace is far far better than trying to annihilate your enemy.
 
Yes absolutely. Peace is generaly far better than war. A war is very costly. In reality Germany has very little to gain to extend the war. It basicly has gained a lot with the defeat of France. Why bother fighting Britain and lose a lot of men, sips, bullets, etc, just to gamble for some potential gains in the future, which might not measure up to what it will lose? As I said, in reality, war is not a computer game. Peace is far far better than trying to annihilate your enemy.
Just world hegemony and the end of the arrogant British oligarchy. What does Germany gain by giving up Belgium?

Just how long do you think Britain is holding out? What kind of damage can Britain do to Germany?

The Germans have naval superiority. They have access to the open seas and they are just giving it away?

How is Britain financing this war? Do you think the Americans are loaning money to a Britain going down to defeat?
 
But I still do not get the point of a quick peace between Russia and Germany after France falls. Germans feared that Russia would become stronger ánd the boss in Europe in a few years. If there are only some border corrections this threat is still fully intact. Won’t that be unacceptable for Germany and Austria?
 
Just world hegemony and the end of the arrogant British oligarchy. What does Germany gain by giving up Belgium?

Just how long do you think Britain is holding out? What kind of damage can Britain do to Germany?

The Germans have naval superiority. They have access to the open seas and they are just giving it away?

How is Britain financing this war? Do you think the Americans are loaning money to a Britain going down to defeat?
That does not matter. As I said at this point peace is far far...far better for Germany than a continued war.
 
Just world hegemony and the end of the arrogant British oligarchy. What does Germany gain by giving up Belgium?

Just how long do you think Britain is holding out? What kind of damage can Britain do to Germany?

The Germans have naval superiority. They have access to the open seas and they are just giving it away?

How is Britain financing this war? Do you think the Americans are loaning money to a Britain going down to defeat?
Please focus more on Russia than on Britain, that last is an other discussion.
 
That does not matter. As I said at this point peace is far far...far better for Germany than a continued war.
Why? A naval war at this point is so one sided, the question is does the Royal Navy even show up.

Why do you think it will be Germany and not Britain making the concessions?
 
A victory in the West implies French capitulation and British withdrawal from the continent - i.e. a 1940 situation. Unlike 1940, Britain can negotiate with Germany and believe that Germany is doing so in good faith. Also unlike 1940, Russia is already in the war and not in a bad position BUT it's on seriously dodgy economic ground, and its ability to fight on this scale without receiving finance and materiele is going to be measured in just a matter of months, during which things will be worsening and it will become obvious to people that a crisis is coming.

The question of Britain is essential to the question of Russia - the latter is absolutely not fighting on if Britain decides to call it a day. Germany in 1914/15 won't have acquired the harsh war aims of later in the war - it will want the rest of Alsace-Lorraine and the demolition of French forts, it might want basing rights in Belgium, it might want to annex Luxembourg, and of course it wants reparations from France, some of which may be in kind.
 
Top