Russian presence in North Manchuria, effects on Japanese policies post-1930?

[Fehérvári]

Some context: Competent A-H fends off Brusilov offensive, no German USW, February Revolution still on time, no Kerensky Offensive, no October Revolution, armistice in late 1917/early 1918, negotiated peace in 1918. Russia only loses Poland (sans Suwalki). German Asia-Pacific possessions have the same fate as OTL.

Assuming that the Great Depression still hits in similar manner to OTL, how could the Japanese and Russian policies develop in Asia-Pacific, how could they shape the region?

How likely is the Japanese invasion of Manchuria ITTL? What about the 2nd Sino-Japanese War? What is the Russian response?

I'm eager to hear your ideas!

If needed, I can give further context about the rest of the world.

 

[Fatt Shea]

After 1905, Russian relation with Japan were good, this was spoiled by the creation of the Soviet Union, Japan feared communism and aided the whites so they would not be allies. A surviving Russian republic might ally with Japan to carve up China, especially as it will be in a time of trouble and Russia will be looking to make up for losses in Poland. This is an option that is overlooked as people assume they must be enemies even if there if no evidence for this. However it is not guaranteed and will depend on Russian government. If Russia is a democratic republic it will likely have some kind of socialist ideology (not bolshevik) and they might be hesitant to support imperialism and Japan would not be fans of this ideology either especially considering they overthrew emperor.

 

[Fehérvári]

@Fatt Shea

Yeah, I considered the carve up of China as an option as well, but I figured that the Japanese overambitions might antagonise the Russians. Alternatively, the Russian internal fragility might make the Russians averse of upsetting the status quo, especially since that might lead to the worsening of relations with almost every other European power.