well the EU is still powerful, it's simply the Euro doesn't exist. With extra monetary competition there is a chance that the EU is even stronger ittl, though a federal project for the EU is thrown into the spanners.
Russia Resurgent: REDUX
- Thread starter सार्थक (Sārthākā)
- Start date
Very interesting update but I have some considerations to make:
- Interesting updates on how things are going in the EU (especially UK, France and Italy) and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but does the presence of Ukrainian troops mean that Ukraine has chosen to ratify the CIS Charter ITL?
- Regarding the reduction of the nuclear stockpile I think that its safe to say that everything older than the Delta II should be decommissioned and scrapped as they are too obsolete to survive in a conflict with NATO.
- Will the Tajikistani Civil War play as in OTL?
Yes, will be covered in the ukrainian update
most probably yes
No, there will be a lot of differences in CA politics ittl.
I wonder how Russias success post dissolution of the Union is seen in the other former Soviet states. Sure independence is awesome, but if you're starving, your kids have no outlook for a better future and your leadership is incompetent and/or corrupt, rejoining the federation sounds mighty fine.
But the European structural and investment funds will still be present; simply there will be no common currency. In the long it is better because countries will not be able to get in debt at such low rates as with the Euro (read Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain)
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Removing the Delta I earlier will save some money but the Delta I class were commissioned during the 1970s and the majority will have service life end by the 2000 or more, so the best thing doable for a Russia that hasn't suffered the bleak economic depression of OTL is to maintain the fleet in reserve and use it as a bargaining chip in case of any Nuclear disarmament treaties in order to protect the far my valuable and advance Delta III, Delta IV and Typhoon Class submarines.
True true - but it will still be a much weaker organisation.
And yes those countries might not get into that level of debt, but as a trade off they will remain poor (except Ireland, but it got rich for different reasons)
Good point but the Russians could also focus on completing more Oscar II or Yasen SSGNs
So how strong will the Euroskeptic movement get? With the Euro dead, it fails to strengthen the movement for those who want their European Federation, but so far the EU is still a strong economic bloc...for how long though will be the next question.
They could finish the Oscar II-class submarines Belgorod, Volgograd and Barnaul and speed up the production of the Yasen-class submarines. Unrelated to SSGNs we could also see more Akula-class SSNs being completed and an earlier focus on Borei-class submarines.
Everything depends on how bad the Russian economy gets before recovering. Regarding the surface fleet, I think that a safe bet would be to put two Kirov-class battlecruisers in reserve and maintain the two other in-service plus the other three/four Slava-class cruises (it depends on the Russians keeping the fourth Slava-class cruiser or not ). Then in the 2000s modernize and bring back into service the two earlier disposed Kirov plus the ones already in service in order to regain the know-how to build brand-new cruisers in the mid to late 2010s. I'm not sure what would happen to the Typhoons-class SSGNs however..... I'm also waiting to see how the partition of the Black Sea Fleet happens ITL.
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Kitiem3000
Donor
In chapter 4 there were a few EU nations seeking opt-outs for the Schengen area free movement, but in chapter 5 free trade or movement isn't mentioned again. Did they change their minds or what happened there?
@Sārthākā
Just one curiosity: assuming that Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Sebastopol are federal cities like in OTL, what about Minsk? Is it a federal city too or is it a normal city like Kazan or Ekaterinburg?
Just one curiosity: assuming that Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Sebastopol are federal cities like in OTL, what about Minsk? Is it a federal city too or is it a normal city like Kazan or Ekaterinburg?
Good update so far. I wonder what are your sources for the 1992 reduction of funds in transportation and health versus education. Anything would be very welcome please as I'm keen to learn more about this.
What are the borders of Nagorno Karabagh TTL? The same one as OTL but with the whole of Shahumyan province including areas like the Lachin corridor, Kalbajar etc?
If so the Armenians are in a much stronger position than OTL.
The lack of euro will have mixed effects on Europe overall. On one hand, competition between European currencies will be a good thing and it will prevent the debt crises that Southern European countries suffered OTL. There may also be more investment in industrial sectors as opposed to constructions as seen OTL. On the other hand, currency devaluations can be used to avoid deep rooted social and structural reforms TTL. This would weaken Southern Europe compared to OTL over the course of decades. Germany will be fine but may find it somewhat more challenging to export in southern Europe TTL as their products may not be as competitive.
A single currency isn't needed to have a single economic market. It is of course helpful and reduces transaction costs. But transaction costs will inevitably go down with digitisation and eventually fintech.
An interesting side effect of this timeline is that the United Kingdom may become a far stronger proponent of European integration than TTL. It has essentially won and its vision of a European Economic union triumphed over the vision of political union.
I wouldn't be surprised if allowing clearing of European currencies in London becomes a potential battlefield between the UK and its European partners.
What are the borders of Nagorno Karabagh TTL? The same one as OTL but with the whole of Shahumyan province including areas like the Lachin corridor, Kalbajar etc?
If so the Armenians are in a much stronger position than OTL.
The lack of euro will have mixed effects on Europe overall. On one hand, competition between European currencies will be a good thing and it will prevent the debt crises that Southern European countries suffered OTL. There may also be more investment in industrial sectors as opposed to constructions as seen OTL. On the other hand, currency devaluations can be used to avoid deep rooted social and structural reforms TTL. This would weaken Southern Europe compared to OTL over the course of decades. Germany will be fine but may find it somewhat more challenging to export in southern Europe TTL as their products may not be as competitive.
A single currency isn't needed to have a single economic market. It is of course helpful and reduces transaction costs. But transaction costs will inevitably go down with digitisation and eventually fintech.
An interesting side effect of this timeline is that the United Kingdom may become a far stronger proponent of European integration than TTL. It has essentially won and its vision of a European Economic union triumphed over the vision of political union.
I wouldn't be surprised if allowing clearing of European currencies in London becomes a potential battlefield between the UK and its European partners.
