Is this TL a good start?

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 66.7%
  • No

    Votes: 1 8.3%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 3 25.0%
  • Perhaps?

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
Sorry, Ever escalating tensions and incidents involving multiple terror attacks in britain to germany and others lead to CSTO/Eurasian/Just Russian-Iranian Invasion of Afganistan,Pakistan, Escalates into WW3 after American Intervention, Years later, The Greater Eurasian State, China, and the EU minus france to occupy Washington, Former CIA, Army, Navy personnel to be tried in Boston trials, Declared Criminals and hanged, CIA,"Insert Political Party Here" party declared criminal organization and outlawed. There thats better. After Things like economic depression terror attacks and other things lead to division in the usa and upron war with The Eurasian state secession of some states happen or is that too much? probably huh?
 
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Sorry, Ever escalating tensions and incidents involving multiple terror attacks in britain to germany and others lead to CSTO/Eurasian/Just Russian-Iranian Invasion of Afganistan,Pakistan, Escalates into WW3 after American Intervention, Years later, The Greater Eurasian State, China, and the EU minus france to occupy Washington, Former CIA, Army, Navy personnel to be tried in Boston trials, Declared Criminals and hanged, CIA,"Insert Political Party Here" party declared criminal organization and outlawed. There thats better. After Things like economic depression terror attacks and other things lead to division in the usa and upron war with The Eurasian state secession of some states happen or is that too much? probably huh?
That is more dystopian than probable really.
 
After some research, I think that these are the most likely things to happen in Italy. I apologize in advance for the length of this analysis and for the fact that some of the sources that I used are not available in English.

Politics: The August 2006 Italian constitutional referendum would have almost certainly passed (The Wikipedia description sums it ups very well) because in OTL the majority of the pro-voters abstained from the vote after Berlusconi lost the elections.* (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Italian_constitutional_referendum)The short trial would have also passed leading to the fall of all trials against Berlusconi. He also wanted to dismantle the province but would have not been carried out because of the Lega Nord (LN, English: Northern League). (http://www.pierferdinandocasini.it/...-la-promessa-elettorale-di-silvio-berlusconi/)

The left would not take kindly the fact that they lost once again and would speedup their fusion into the Democratic Party (Italian: Partito Democratico, PD). In response, Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale would have fused into the People of Freedom(Italian: Il Popolo della Libertà, PDL) earlier as well. The Lega Nord after having fulfilled his objectives in the 2006 referendum would have fallen in the polls like in OTL and is votes would have been intercepted by the PDL.

The Five Star Movement would have also been smaller (no collapse of the PDL to enlarge his electorate) if it would be created at all (It depends on the scale of the 2008 economic crisis)

Economics: The ICI (Municipal property tax) would have removed (This was the focal electoral promise of his campaign), there would have been more liberalization, privatization (Alitalia and Tirrenia) and the trades unions would have been weakened. This would have led to a farther reduction of the Italian Debt by another 2%-4%. After the 2008 crisis, he would have most likely created a Universal basic income to sustain the people that would have been faired. (https://www.secondowelfare.it/pover...verta-puntiamo-sul-reddito-di-inclusione.html) He would have also not killed the Italian internal market through austerity allowing Italy to fastly recover after the crisis (Berlusconi almost managed to this in OTL but then Monti destroyed anything) (https://www.strategy-business.com/article/17213?gko=fd5f9)

Infrastructure: Significantly more founding. The MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) would have been completed by 2016 and the Strait of Messina Bridge would have been constructed. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Messina_Bridge)

Defense: Pretty much the same. After some more research, I have concluded that the Ariete MK.2 would have NOT been produced due to economic reasons. Maybe some upgrade packages? I don't know.

*This must pass to allow to put an end to the volatility and instability of the Italian governments.
 
After some research, I think that these are the most likely things to happen in Italy. I apologize in advance for the length of this analysis and for the fact that some of the sources that I used are not available in English.

Politics: The August 2006 Italian constitutional referendum would have almost certainly passed (The Wikipedia description sums it ups very well) because in OTL the majority of the pro-voters abstained from the vote after Berlusconi lost the elections.* (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Italian_constitutional_referendum)The short trial would have also passed leading to the fall of all trials against Berlusconi. He also wanted to dismantle the province but would have not been carried out because of the Lega Nord (LN, English: Northern League). (http://www.pierferdinandocasini.it/...-la-promessa-elettorale-di-silvio-berlusconi/)

The left would not take kindly the fact that they lost once again and would speedup their fusion into the Democratic Party (Italian: Partito Democratico, PD). In response, Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale would have fused into the People of Freedom(Italian: Il Popolo della Libertà, PDL) earlier as well. The Lega Nord after having fulfilled his objectives in the 2006 referendum would have fallen in the polls like in OTL and is votes would have been intercepted by the PDL.

The Five Star Movement would have also been smaller (no collapse of the PDL to enlarge his electorate) if it would be created at all (It depends on the scale of the 2008 economic crisis)

Economics: The ICI (Municipal property tax) would have removed (This was the focal electoral promise of his campaign), there would have been more liberalization, privatization (Alitalia and Tirrenia) and the trades unions would have been weakened. This would have led to a farther reduction of the Italian Debt by another 2%-4%. After the 2008 crisis, he would have most likely created a Universal basic income to sustain the people that would have been faired. (https://www.secondowelfare.it/pover...verta-puntiamo-sul-reddito-di-inclusione.html) He would have also not killed the Italian internal market through austerity allowing Italy to fastly recover after the crisis (Berlusconi almost managed to this in OTL but then Monti destroyed anything) (https://www.strategy-business.com/article/17213?gko=fd5f9)

Infrastructure: Significantly more founding. The MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) would have been completed by 2016 and the Strait of Messina Bridge would have been constructed. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Messina_Bridge)

Defense: Pretty much the same. After some more research, I have concluded that the Ariete MK.2 would have NOT been produced due to economic reasons. Maybe some upgrade packages? I don't know.

*This must pass to allow to put an end to the volatility and instability of the Italian governments.
Thanks for the info.
 
the terror continues, thoughts?

My bet, instead, is that NBAL is funded by Saudi Arabia. It would not be the first time they have financed terrorist groups to wreak havoc in countries they consider their enemies. That at least one of the terrorists is Chechen points in that direction (historically the Saudi emirs financed Islamist terrorist movements such as the Chechen or the Taliban).

It might be objected that they would not fund blatantly atheist people like the National Bolsheviks, but that would be to ignore geopolitical reality (and the fact that, for example, the United States has historically funded far-right or religious groups simply because it "suited it"). ). It is likely that soon, someone in Europe or the United States will start saying that NBAL is actually financed by Iran.

Another idea that occurred to me at first is that, in reality, all this is simply Putin pulling a Palpatine: organizing and waging a civil war in Russia to claim more and more powers under the excuse of "quelling the terrorist crisis" and eventually proclaim himself an eternal dictator or something. This doesn't seem like the kind of thing you'd do though.
 
My bet, instead, is that NBAL is funded by Saudi Arabia. It would not be the first time they have financed terrorist groups to wreak havoc in countries they consider their enemies. That at least one of the terrorists is Chechen points in that direction (historically the Saudi emirs financed Islamist terrorist movements such as the Chechen or the Taliban).

It might be objected that they would not fund blatantly atheist people like the National Bolsheviks, but that would be to ignore geopolitical reality (and the fact that, for example, the United States has historically funded far-right or religious groups simply because it "suited it"). ). It is likely that soon, someone in Europe or the United States will start saying that NBAL is actually financed by Iran.

Another idea that occurred to me at first is that, in reality, all this is simply Putin pulling a Palpatine: organizing and waging a civil war in Russia to claim more and more powers under the excuse of "quelling the terrorist crisis" and eventually proclaim himself an eternal dictator or something. This doesn't seem like the kind of thing you'd do though.
Good Geopolitical analysis, though when the FSB find out the perpetrator, then all hell will break loose. Not only the government, but also the people. Like so many people above me who have stated already, the assassination of the monarch only increases sympathy for the monarchy. The aftermath is going to be gruesome.
 
My bet, instead, is that NBAL is funded by Saudi Arabia. It would not be the first time they have financed terrorist groups to wreak havoc in countries they consider their enemies. That at least one of the terrorists is Chechen points in that direction (historically the Saudi emirs financed Islamist terrorist movements such as the Chechen or the Taliban).

It might be objected that they would not fund blatantly atheist people like the National Bolsheviks, but that would be to ignore geopolitical reality (and the fact that, for example, the United States has historically funded far-right or religious groups simply because it "suited it"). ). It is likely that soon, someone in Europe or the United States will start saying that NBAL is actually financed by Iran.

Another idea that occurred to me at first is that, in reality, all this is simply Putin pulling a Palpatine: organizing and waging a civil war in Russia to claim more and more powers under the excuse of "quelling the terrorist crisis" and eventually proclaim himself an eternal dictator or something. This doesn't seem like the kind of thing you'd do though.
I don't know... Saudi Arabia is a possibility but I think the USA would have also financed the NBAL jut to weaken Russia. In the long terms could evolve in a major PR disaster when it is revealed that they have financed those groups
 
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Another idea that occurred to me at first is that, in reality, all this is simply Putin pulling a Palpatine: organizing and waging a civil war in Russia to claim more and more powers under the excuse of "quelling the terrorist crisis" and eventually proclaim himself an eternal dictator or something. This doesn't seem like the kind of thing you'd do though.
Regardless, I could still see this being a popular conspiracy theory.
 
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