Republican Spain in WW2 and the Cold War

[Onedotman]

Suppose that the Republicans won the Spanish Civil War. After the Fall of France, Germany is most likely to invade Spain, since no way they would tolerate a socialist country right next to the Vichy. Now there are two scenarios at hand: one is that the Nazis successfully take over Spain and install Franco and co as quislings, and the other is that the they get bogged down in the Pyrenees and suffer a humiliating defeat.

Once the war is won, the leftist government in Spain would retain a lot of legitimacy (having resisted Falangist fascism and the Nazi invasion/occupation), and thus would stay in power for pretty long. Things get interesting from here, since we now have a bastion of leftism right in Western Europe, a melting pot of social democrats, communists, Catalan/Basque nationalists and anarchists alike. How would the foreign policy of this overwhelmingly left-wing Spain look like? Outright alliance with the Soviet Union is unlikely, but at least Finlandization by the West is pretty possible. Or there's another possibility is that Spain decides to forge its own path and ally with Third World nations. Could an Western European country - and ironically a imperialist power - ever be supporting liberation struggles in Asia and Africa?

 

[BeardedHoplite]

Germany definitely uses the momentum after 1940 to invade Spain and overthrow the Republic. Even with the Spanish terrain the invasion has no chance of being repulsed; Spain would be too weak and divided to stand up.

What happens after would be interesting. Do they put Franco in charge? Maybe, maybe not. I am honestly leaning more toward a direct military government given that Spain would be a massive vulnerability in the Atlantic wall.

Probably not much change to the North African campaign, and might even wrap up sooner as the troops sent to NA would be needed to garrison Spain in addition to OTL commitments in the Balkans and Barbarossa.

Come early 1942, the allies would be in an interesting position. They have wrapped up in Africa most likely and now have all of the Med to pick at. The Heer would also be faaaaar more overextended and I could very easily see some sort of landing in late 42. Maybe in Spain, or maybe in France. Western Europe is their oyster.

Fascinating scenario honestly

 

[Lalli]

Spain after SCW would be really vulnerable and weak so if Hitler indeed wants (probably) invade Spain it shouldn't be difficult even if Brits give lot of military support. Certainly Germans put Franco or someone else pro-German puppet ruler but there would be pretty strong Wehrmacht presence since there is possibility that Allies land to Spain. Gibraltar is now in intresting position.

Just wondering would nazis try pressure Salazar to join to Axis and would he agree with that.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Just wondering would nazis try pressure Salazar to join to Axis and would he agree with that.

They could try but Salazar wasn't a big fan of Hitler and Mussolini IIRC, his right-wing dictatorship being very different from fascist Italy or Germany. And Portugal has really nothing to win from joining the Axis, just as Spain IOTL.

 

[raharris1973]

Germany definitely uses the momentum after 1940 to invade Spain and overthrow the Republic. Even with the Spanish terrain the invasion has no chance of being repulsed; Spain would be too weak and divided to stand up.

Spain after SCW would be really vulnerable and weak so if Hitler indeed wants (probably) invade Spain it shouldn't be difficult even if Brits give lot of military support.

This still wouldn't all be super easy and friction free. This forces the Wehrmacht into western/southwestern European uninterrupted campaigning that lasts all year long and is very wearing on men and machines. A big section of the BEF and French forces are lost at Dunkirk sure, and the Germans are having success with Fall Rot in their break-out into northern France against French reserves and remaining BEF, but if Spain is in the war, the British will keep on raising and mobilizing men from Dominions and Empire and home and making equipment and buying it from America, while the Germans have to do the actual work of driving down through now southern France, and then crossing the Pyrenees, and then the other Spanish mountain ranges and rivers against, using stretched, improvised logistics they have to keep rebuilding from scratch against Spanish forces, redeployed British Empire forces and any Free French or defiant or retreated French forces that may choose to continue.

One consideration that is pretty important is when is Spain drawn into the war? Is it neutral from September 1939 through May 1940? With the May 1940 offensive and Dunkirk battles is it remaining neutral, joining the war, or doing a precautionary mobilization? Or is it trying to remain neutral, France is making terms pretty much as OTL, but the Germans also force Vichy to give them occupation of the Spanish border, and only then the Germans attack and DoW the neutral Spanish? The last leave the Spanish least prepared and the French least useful.

I don't think that a Germany busy doing invasion/occupation of Spain through 1940 is able to pose even a hypothetical Sea Lion threat or devote air power to a BoB or terror blitz on Britain. Italy would have tough choices between augmenting Spain or Libya. Germany is not at all certain to be in great shape to spring into potent offensives in the Balkans, North Africa and then Russia in 1941.

 

[Monk78]

IMHO all Spaniards ( of any persuasion ) will unite against Germans if an actual invasion happens
And with the brutality with which they tormented Napoleons veterans they will make life hell for invasion / occupation forces
It would make sense for Wehrmacht to use CW in this scenario

 

[Garrison]

The Germans can invade Spain successfully, but it will create serious problems. Firstly Vichy is technically neutral, letting the Germans deploy forces to attack Spain will cause serious internal problems in France, possibly leading to the execution of Case Anton and depending on the timing that could have serious consequences for the loyalties of the French colonies. Once the Germans are in Spain its going to be another country to be garrisoned and more coastline that needs to be defended, and another opportunity for Allied deception plans before D-Day, perhaps clearing the way for an alt-Operation Mincemeat. I definitely do not think there will be an actual invasion.
After the war I imagine Spain will be rebuilt as a democracy and will be a recipient of Marshall aid, probably leading to the country experiencing an earlier economic recovery. A more stable Spanish economy would also be beneficial when Europe creates a single market and a single currency, which I still expect to happen as a Republican Spain is unlikely to affect the course of the war all that much. I do wonder if it might take off as tourist destination earlier than OTL? I think its possible, especially if British troops find themselves taking charge of disarming the Germans and helping in the reorganization of the country.
Probably goes without saying that Spanish claims to Gibraltar are off the menu for the next few decades

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Agreed with the above post
German occupation of the Pyrenees (and likely the whole south-western France) reduces the Free Zone, and would likely make Vichy's legitimacy shakier (or outright destroy it).

At the same time, the British (and Free French) will likely land in Morocco to prevent an Axis complete control of the Strait of Gibraltar (and closely support the Gibraltar garrison)

It will likely lead to French North Africa and every other colony (except maybe Indochina depending on whether there's already a Japanese presence there) joining the Allies.

Germany having to do Case Anton.

Quick fall of Libya (now trapped between French and British attacks).

New front for the Luftwaffe to cover, fighting the RAF (stationed in Morocco) in Spain.
The Regio Aeronautico will feel the pressure too (in Italy proper) with Algeria, Tunisia and Libya in Allied hands.

Mussolini will likely still invade Greece (if only to compensate the prestige loss in Libya). This time, however, Germans might not bail him out (as they now have to occupy southern France and Spain too AND to recover from the extra losses in men, equipment and ammo caused by the invasion of Spain). So, Albania eventually falls to the Greeks. And then, Mussolini falls from power, and the Italo-German relationship gets very awkward.

That, or Germans still bail Mussolini in the Balkans (fearing a threat to Ploiesti or an Italian flip-flop otherwise). Except that now, the Allies can deploy ground and air forces in Greece too (Libyan campaign being over). And so, Germans might struggle (or fail) to take Morea, Agean Islands and Crete.

Regardless of the result in Greece, the combined cost of all those campaigns (and need to occupy Spain and southern France in addition to everything else) may delay Barbarossa by one years... or force the operation to be launched in suboptimal conditions (with significantly less aircraft, pilots and infantry divisions available).

The major advantages of holding Spain for Germany are its useful position for submarine and aerial raids against British merchant marine, and of course to block the entry of the Med (even if the Allies have Morocco). Though the British can still access the Med by the Cape-Suez route.

A side question is whether Hitler would invade Portugal too.
It would be tempting, as it has a small population and territory (so the extra cost is acceptable), and it prevents the risk of Allies violating Portuguese neutrality to land in Iberia, and gives more ports for U Boats.
The downside is the need for even more equipment and men to garrison the Portuguese coast as well.

Come 1942, Torch will certainly be aimed at Spain, to end the U-Boat campaign from Spanish ports and reopen the Med (a prerequisite for any major campaign in Italy, the Balkans or southern France).

 

[thaddeus]

have Germany and Italy backed the Nationalist coup with an effort approx. like the historical events? have Germany and Italy had a falling out or chilling of their relations since the Nationalists were defeated? are Germany and the USSR in at least an uneasy collaboration in 1940?

a full blown Soviet sponsored Spain is first of all of concern to the Allies and secondly if and until Germany invades East, they would be restrained from joining the war against the Axis side.

 

[Lascaris]

What has happened to the Ribbendrop-Molotov pact TTL? And when we say republican Spain is socialist what do we really mean here? Is it ruled effectively by the PCE and Soviet aligned? Will Germany invade a Soviet aligned state in summer 1940 wi5h the pact still very much in place? Potentially you see any invasion delayed to the time of Barbarossa but this has... side effects.

 

[Lalli]

What has happened to the Ribbendrop-Molotov pact TTL? And when we say republican Spain is socialist what do we really mean here? Is it ruled effectively by the PCE and Soviet aligned? Will Germany invade a Soviet aligned state in summer 1940 wi5h the pact still very much in place? Potentially you see any invasion delayed to the time of Barbarossa but this has... side effects.

Knowing Stalin he could very finely backstab Spanish government and allow Germans invade Spain. He could just explain that they weren't true communist or something.

 

[Lascaris]

Knowing Stalin he could very finely backstab Spanish government and allow Germans invade Spain. He could just explain that they weren't true communist or something.

What does Uncle Joe gain by throwing the cause celebre of the left under the bus? What is the tangible gain for the Soviet Union?

 

[Reflection]

Just wondering, if Germany does invade and conquer Spain, then would Republican Spain be restored under that government after World War II (which I'm assuming ends the same way for the most part), or would a new non-socialist government be established in its place?

Admittedly, in the case of the Cold War, it's interesting to imagine an Eastern Bloc outpost in Western Europe.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

What does Uncle Joe gain by throwing the cause celebre of the left under the bus? What is the tangible gain for the Soviet Union?

Well, for starters, it makes Germans even more busy in the west, and reduces or delays their readiness for invading Soviet Union

 

[Lascaris]

Well, for starters, it makes Germans even more busy in the west, and reduces or delays their readiness for invading Soviet Union

But Stalin at the time believed Germany was going to stick to the deal an not invade. Why in June 1940 he decides Germany will invade TTL?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Just wondering, if Germany does invade and conquer Spain, then would Republican Spain be restored under that government after World War II (which I'm assuming ends the same way for the most part), or would a new non-socialist government be established in its place?

Admittedly, in the case of the Cold War, it's interesting to imagine an Eastern Bloc outpost in Western Europe.

Depends on resistance movements, Albania never got any Soviet troops on its soil, yet still ended up becoming a Soviet satellite and the KKE was very powerful and had a realistic chance of getting in power before they made a few mistakes. However if it's US/UK troops that liberate Spain we have an Italian like situation,

 

[Derek Pullem]

But Stalin at the time believed Germany was going to stick to the deal an not invade. Why in June 1940 he decides Germany will invade TTL?

Because Germany just invaded his only friendly nation in Western Europe?

Turning it around Germany may not invade Republican Spain for precisely this reason. But logically would have to in 1941 to protect their continental rear.

Which likely means that it figures in Barbarossa planning.

Which likely means Hitler will strongly discourage Mussolini from Greece and instead ask him to plan to attack Spain instead (Italy may even has retained the Balearics if the Republicans won). So Spain ends up being mostly Italian with a few German divisions.

Agree Vichy is likely fatally compromised leading to a short Libyan campaign and pro-Allied North Africa. On the other hand no need to intervene in the Balkans (except possibly Yugoslavia if the coup happens). Assuming Spain and Yugoslavia fall relatively quickly (likely) then the Italians get the main job of garrisoning both. Mussolini may actually benefit from this scenario - although loss of Libya and Ethiopia are negative they are probably more than offset by gains in Spain and Dalmatian coast.

Likely loss of Gibraltar will complicate the Allied response to invasion of Spain. Sending Torch directly into a hostile Spain rather than a feeble North African Vichy colony is going to be a much bigger ask and may not happen until 1943, delaying any direct attack on Italy so keeping them in the war for longer.

Can still see Axis position in Spain collapsing in 1944 which likely removes the need for Dragoon in 1944 to be replaced by alt-Husky / Avalanche instead.

 

[Reflection]

Albania never got any Soviet troops on its soil, yet still ended up becoming a Soviet satellite

Albeit, not for very long...

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Albeit, not for very long...

Khrushchev was very good at alienating hardliners in the communist world.

 

[thaddeus]

have Germany and Italy backed the Nationalist coup with an effort approx. like the historical events? have Germany and Italy had a falling out or chilling of their relations since the Nationalists were defeated? are Germany and the USSR in at least an uneasy collaboration in 1940?

a full blown Soviet sponsored Spain is first of all of concern to the Allies and secondly if and until Germany invades East, they would be restrained from joining the war against the Axis side.

What has happened to the Ribbendrop-Molotov pact TTL? And when we say republican Spain is socialist what do we really mean here? Is it ruled effectively by the PCE and Soviet aligned? Will Germany invade a Soviet aligned state in summer 1940 wi5h the pact still very much in place? Potentially you see any invasion delayed to the time of Barbarossa but this has... side effects.

Knowing Stalin he could very finely backstab Spanish government and allow Germans invade Spain. He could just explain that they weren't true communist or something.

there could be some earlier M-R Pact or other dealings between Germany and the USSR? there was at least some consideration of offering Germany and Italy monies and/or territory by the Republican government to end any support for the Nationalist coup.