Reading the Room - an Alternate War of 1812 and beyond

[Graf von Dürn]

Hi, have been following along without commenting until now. Very interessting, especially as I know suprisingly little about the americas in this time period, but as someone who has recently developed an interest I'm eager to read more. 👍

With New Spain soon to be in open rebellion aigainst the crown, is there a chance for cooperation between the rebels and the US? Resulting in, dare I hope, better relations between the two nations going forward?

 

[Seawolf]

With New Spain soon to be in open rebellion aigainst the crown, is there a chance for cooperation between the rebels and the US? Resulting in, dare I hope, better relations between the two nations going forward?

Highly unlikely I am afraid, the United States is going to have its hands full with the Caribbean which frankly is hell for more reasons than just combat. The other factors in the region will see a lot of non-combat related deaths.

 

[piratedude]

Not really actually....New Spain (which includes what becomes Mexico and Texas) are at the moment in timeline, literally months away from having the opening moment of what will become the Mexican War for Independence and in fact, given the war that will break out within a few months, its quite plausible that the revolt which started the damn thing gets accelerated.

Oh boy. Looking up the viceroy of new Spain at this time and I think I see where you're going with this. Mexico is in for some Interesting Times ™️

 

[Seawolf]

Oh boy. Looking up the viceroy of new Spain at this time and I think I see where you're going with this. Mexico is in for some Interesting Times ™️

Yeah, the War for Independence fires a lot sooner to be perfectly honest given Spain suddenly being at war and thus more thoroughly distracted.

 

[Northstar]

Just been reading through this whilst I'm on school holidays and it's interesting enough. Congratulations on making short, regular updates to keep the story progressing at a good rate.

Other posters have stated that it does stretch realism at times, which I'd agree with. I would also agree with the poster a few pages back who said about the second PoD, the weather one, being a bit ASB. It also kind of put a black mark on things for me too, but I think you said you were going to take feedback on board and edit it a bit when you're feeling better. I think the suggestion about the battle being brought forward a bit sounds like an easy enough one to implement.

I hope you feel better soon and look forward to maybe coming across this thread again.

KR,

Northstar

 

[Seawolf]

It also kind of put a black mark on things for me too, but I think you said you were going to take feedback on board and edit it a bit when you're feeling better. I think the suggestion about the battle being brought forward a bit sounds like an easy enough one to implement.

That's what I am going to do actually once I feel better. Trust me, that one is getting partially rewritten, its just I have a Cold that's kicking my ass right now.

 

[Seawolf]

June 4, 1808 - Spain​

Two thousand Spanish soldiers and militia were frantically putting together defensive works at a pass near El Bruc, but the defensive works were nowhere near completed when the French descended upon them. Some 4,000 French Soldiers along with two artillery guns met the Spanish in open battle.

Muskets rattled, the cannons roared, and the battle was a catastrophe for the Spanish. The militia were fighting to defend their homes and were doing so desperately. But the French pressed their advantage and closed against the Spanish forces and their incomplete defensive works.

The militia ended up breaking and running under the sustained, deadly fire of the French forces. The French, seeing an opportunity, charged the Spanish with bayonets lowered and the regulars, realizing they were outnumbered and that their position was overrun, ran from the French. They left nearly three hundred eighty dead on the field in comparison to one hundred thirty dead French soldiers. Amongst the Spanish dead, having personally commanded a battalion to save something from the unfolding disaster was General Antoni Franch i Estalella.

However, the French commanding officer couldn’t advance much farther as he had pushed his troops way too hard in their advance towards El Bruch. Thus, the French camped out with plans to head towards their objective in the morning, but that wasn’t to be with rebels attacking twice rather ineffectively during the night. Regardless, it had the intended effect and the French Commander lost his nerves and thus he retreated, being harried by Spanish rebels a decent chunk of the way back to Barcelona.

 

[Seawolf]

June 6, 1808 - Washington D.C, United States​

Congress was once again summoned to have an immediate discussion regarding The Minion Incident. Meanwhile, the war hawks had been dissuaded from war with Britain due to the Battle of Hampton Roads. The whole affair off of Corsica made it clear that the French didn’t care about the sovereignty of neutral shipping anymore. The United States Navy was building up considerably, true, but it wouldn’t be until 1810 that the naval buildup began to bear fruit. Regardless, something needed to be done for if Napoleon declared war, he could very easily direct Spain to invade the United States through Florida and implement a blockade with what naval forces he had in the region.

Regardless, the Declaration of War was quickly passed in the House of Representatives but was Stonewalled in the Senate which feared that they were acting far too brashly. Instead, they sought to extract some Indemnity from France regarding the Minion Incident. Thus Congress ended up going in circles.

It wasn’t the only thing on the docket, Sir Erskine’s suggestion of a national optical telegraph network had quickly gained steam amongst Congress. Quite rapidly, a bill was drafted authorizing the construction of such a thing to be run by the United States Post Office Department.

Furthermore, rumblings began of a new Naval Law for either 1810 or 1812. The exact specifics of the Naval Law hadn’t been hammered out yet, but Congress agreed that they needed additional slipways given that their current ship-building capacity was essentially maxed out with each major Naval Yard being able to support at least four ships of the line and a greater number of frigates. This would mean expanding the Naval Yards they had and likely building new ones too.

 

[nagachate]

I was thinking, is this really the end of Anglo-American hostility? Sure, a working relationship has been establishd over mutial hatres of Napoleon, but there are a few issues like the great lakes. Western politicians will push for war with Tecumseh and Tenskwatawa, and i was thinking couldn't this result in an arms race in the Great Lakes? Meanwhile trade betwen US and UK should be lucrative, but once war with Spain and France starts, i think it's plausible protectivist tarrifs get passed under Madison, if not to finance the war then at least if the war still sweeps war hawks like Calhoun and Clay into office. You may know that eventually even Jefferson came out in support for a protectivist tarrif to "united agriculturalists and manufacturers", and ITTL this will probably seem like even more of a natural outgrowth of the post-1807 policies. But a tarrif will undoubtly worsen Anglo-American relations, and the thing is that IMO the whole circumstances of this timeline might aswell strengthen the view that "when you deal with John Bull you have to look him in the eyes."

 

[unprincipled peter]

I was thinking, is this really the end of Anglo-American hostility? Sure, a working relationship has been establishd over mutial hatres of Napoleon, but there are a few issues like the great lakes. Western politicians will push for war with Tecumseh and Tenskwatawa, and i was thinking couldn't this result in an arms race in the Great Lakes? Meanwhile trade betwen US and UK should be lucrative, but once war with Spain and France starts, i think it's plausible protectivist tarrifs get passed under Madison, if not to finance the war then at least if the war still sweeps war hawks like Calhoun and Clay into office. You may know that eventually even Jefferson came out in support for a protectivist tarrif to "united agriculturalists and manufacturers", and ITTL this will probably seem like even more of a natural outgrowth of the post-1807 policies. But a tarrif will undoubtly worsen Anglo-American relations, and the thing is that IMO the whole circumstances of this timeline might aswell strengthen the view that "when you deal with John Bull you have to look him in the eyes."

it is extremely unlikely that British/USA animosity makes such an about face as per the POD. But if we accept that the US show of strength has, at least, diverted the course toward war, once US gets entangled with Spain/France, Britain and France will cooperate against the common enemy. Realistically, the cooperation will be entirely naval in nature, with Britain's vast superiority at sea preventing S/F from being able to send resources from Europe, and USA being able to assist Britain in the Caribbean sphere, freeing up British resources to put into the European theater.

A thought though: OTL, the future Wellington was training a force to cause trouble in Venezuela. With the successful uprising in Spain, these got diverted, and used to great effect in the Peninsular War. Here, with the Spanish uprising probably being squashed (otherwise, there's no Spanish/French danger to USA, and USA runs afoul of the new Spanish/British alliance) Wellington and his troops head off, as scheduled, to Venezuela, likely to be slaughtered by tropical disease. USA could be of assistance there, if they haven't suffered enough hell in Cuba. Or, USA could get Britain to send those troops to Cuba as part of an alliance. Spain and Portugal are solidly French, and Britain has no other place to engage the French. Austria likely doesn't start a war in 1809.

It's highly unlikely USA enters into a full alliance with Britain, so the cooperation will likely be benevolent rather than active. This TTL is full of the unlikely, though, so anything can happen.

To add on to your thought of British/USA economic animosity, in this TTL, France rules supreme in Europe. There's no Peninsular War to buy up British goods as in OTL. The Continental System is choking Britain, and if USA chokes it even more with a tariff increase, it could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

 

[Seawolf]

Here, with the Spanish uprising probably being squashed

Its unlikely to be squashed, the rebellion is still in its opening moves actually. But partisan activity has been happening, the Battle of El Bruch in OTL was just the first major battle that involved the Spanish Army. Trust me, the Peninsular War is just getting warmed up.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Its unlikely to be squashed, the rebellion is still in its opening moves actually. But partisan activity has been happening, the Battle of El Bruch in OTL was just the first major battle that involved the Spanish Army. Trust me, the Peninsular War is just getting warmed up..

Well, then, I'll just have to wait and see where it goes. I know there's a war (or the title lies). I know it's alternate. My assumptions are apparently off.

I do applaud you for not answering the jump ahead posts (such as mine), as I've seen in a lot of threads.

 

[Seawolf]

I do applaud you for not answering the jump ahead posts (such as mine), as I've seen in a lot of threads.

Why thank you!

I might be able to change later parts of the Peninsular War more, but the opening apart from a few scattered events is largely going to go as OTL.

The biggest change though is the French Squadron in Cadiz not surrendering - thus the British are still a little in the dark about what's going on in the Iberian Peninsula. But the British will figure it out, eventually, their alliance with Portugal compels Britain to do something in the Iberian Peninsula.

Western politicians will push for war with Tecumseh and Tenskwatawa, and i was thinking couldn't this result in an arms race in the Great Lakes?

Note, in the War of 1812, both the United States and the British by the end were building full blown Ships of the Line on the Lakes, with the British having started proceedings in that regards with a titanic First Rate named HMS St. Lawrence.

Frankly, with Tecumseh, that one is honestly a bit of a question mark as its pretty far out, ditto with Tenskwatawa.

But a tarrif will undoubtly worsen Anglo-American relations, and the thing is that IMO the whole circumstances of this timeline might aswell strengthen the view that "when you deal with John Bull you have to look him in the eyes."

Note, the Continental System was beginning to show cracks too though starting in just a few years.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Interesting scenario. This is one of those times when there are probably going to least several instances where 20th century communications may have made things different.

Wilkinson was suspect but nobody had been able to pin anything on him. I wonder how they will get rid of him. I would be tempted to send him to Europe once it's discovered that France and Spain are at war, but don't tell him. Instead, make him blunder into being a French ally, and then the Spanish will off him. ( Yeah, I know that smacks of Hogan's Heroes too much - and may be too crazy for Hogan, though the Russian Marya would do it )

James Monroe might make a good general. Andrew Jackson was mentioned and that is good, but yes, I think this will mostly be naval, especially once it is realized that Texas can't be grabbed. There are a few enough Spanish forces in Florida that the United States could just say "oh, we were just going to buy that from you, so you can get some more funds for the war."

 

[Seawolf]

There are a few enough Spanish forces in Florida that the United States could just say "oh, we were just going to buy that from you, so you can get some more funds for the war."

The big problem is Cuba, that place could very easily muster up 20,000 or 30,000 troops.

You might be able to take East Florida with what's essentially a fast haymaker, but that means nothing if the Spanish land 20,000 troops in East Florida, establish supply lines, then feed troops from Central America into East Florida to take on the United States. Cuba could very well be a mustering grounds for such an invasion - best to neutralize it.

I must admit, I've been having trouble figuring out what the Spanish have available in Cuba for naval assets as the United States Navy isn't large.

Wilkinson was suspect but nobody had been able to pin anything on him.

I am unfamiliar with this guy, who is he?

This is one of those times when there are probably going to least several instances where 20th century communications may have made things different.

Oh definitely, there will be a couple of times like that.

 

[piratedude]

I think this will mostly be naval, especially once it is realized that Texas can't be grabbed.

I assume there'll probably be a border adjustment with Tejas wrt Louisiana's border, like otl. Maybe adjusted a tad further west, at the Neches River instead of the Sabine river?

I am unfamiliar with this guy, who is he?

James Wilkinson - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In particular, he's referring to the Spanish agent section

In April 1787, Wilkinson made a highly controversial trip to New Orleans, which was the capital of Spanish colonial Louisiana.: 80  At that time, Americans were allowed to trade on the Mississippi River, but they had to pay a hefty tariff. Wilkinson met with Spanish Governor Esteban Rodríguez Miró and managed to convince him to allow Kentucky to have a trading monopoly on the River; in return he promised to promote Spanish interests in the west. On August 22, 1787, Wilkinson signed an expatriation declaration and swore allegiance to the King of Spain to satisfy his own commercial needs.: 86  The "Spanish Conspiracy", as it is known, was initiated by Wilkinson's "First Memorial", a 7,500-word report written before he left New Orleans for Charleston, to the Spanish concerning the "political future of western settlers" and to convince Spain to "admit us [Kentuckians] under protection as vassals".: 85  This was encoded with myriad symbols, numbers, and letters that was decoded via a complex English-Spanish cipher code-named "Number 13", which became the basis for his pseudonym, "Agent 13".: 88  Wilkinson's involvement with the Spanish (as Agent 13) was widely suspected in his own day, and it was proved in 1854, with Louisiana historian Charles Gayarré's publication of the American general's correspondence with Esteban Rodríguez Miró, Louisiana's colonial governor between 1785 and 1791.

Was also involved with Aaron Burr's little conspiracy, and was...rather unskilled at conventional warfare

 

[Seawolf]

I assume there'll probably be a border adjustment with Tejas wrt Louisiana's border, like otl. Maybe adjusted a tad further west, at the Neches River instead of the Sabine river?

That's probably about the most you can reasonably manage....the Mississippi is just too big of a beast otherwise.

In particular, he's referring to the Spanish agent section

Oh my...can you arrest someone on suspicion of being a spy? Nice and simple.

 

[piratedude]

Oh my...can you arrest someone on suspicion of being a spy? Nice and simple.

Not easily i don't think, but it could be covered by the Enemy Aliens act, if it was discovered he had renounced his American citizenship. The problem here is that the US doesn't have laws directly dealing with espionage until 1917. (Afaict, please correct me if I'm wrong)

Proving full on treason would require two witnesses to the same overt act aiding America's enemies in war time

 

[Seawolf]

Proving full on treason would require two witnesses to the same overt act aiding America's enemies in war time

I have something really simple to help with that then.

He's heading to say Pensacola or St. Augustine and gets eaten by an Alligator while traveling there. I know that Florida is lousy with the damn things and that if they get big enough, they will eat a human.

 

[unprincipled peter]

eventually, their alliance with Portugal compels Britain to do something in the Iberian Peninsula.

OTL, Britain showed every sign of writing Portugal off as lost. It was only when Spain rose up and opposed France that Britain took notice. Since I don't know what the situation is going to be in Spain, I can't offer an opinion on Portugal, but sans an opening in Spain, Britain will not do anything for Portugal. The longer Spain remains a muddled picture, the longer Portugal remains on its own.