Reading the Room - an Alternate War of 1812 and beyond

[Seawolf]

Well, it would help if he up held the courts decision to recognize Indian nations' sovereignty, though i expect he would only do so for those nations that create formal constitutions like the Cherokee did. So any that don't are likely to still get the shaft, unfortunately.

Agreed, I can see Andrew Jackson helping with this actually by helping the Native Americans of Florida with state building by saying that the United States will formally recognize them and their territory if they write a Constitution.

IIRC, that ruling was made in the early 1800s....maybe earlier...I can't remember the exact date as I never studied law.

 

[piratedude]

Florida is the less pressing issue (i feel) since the feds can practically do whatever they want to do because in 1808, other than the claim that part of West Florida had been included in the Louisiana purchase, there are no interfering territorial claims to deal with. Like, if they wanted to they could just add the entirety of west Florida to the future Alabama and Mississippi, getting rid of most of the Florida panhandle. The big issue with the natives in Florida is the runaway slave issue, which i think they can come to an agreement over...probably a recognition of any current runaways with them as free, so long as the agree to the Fugitive slave Act going forward

Georgia is a bigger issue. They were particularly aggressive about Indian removal because it had given up its claims in the Mississippi territory in exchange for getting Indian lands in 1802.

 

[Seawolf]

Georgia is a bigger issue. They were particularly aggressive about Indian removal because it had given up its claims in the Mississippi territory in exchange for getting Indian lands in 1802.

That could very easily spiral out of control if Andrew Jackson gives the Seminoles tips on how to become recognized by the United States - not spiral into war, but it could very easily result in a formal complaint against the state being levelled which will probably result in the Feds going "Why are you aggravating a sovereign nation?" in an angry voice and might see the US Border Patrol founded sooner to stop shenanigans like this.

Like, if they wanted to they could just add the entirety of west Florida to the future Alabama and Mississippi, getting rid of most of the Florida panhandle.

This is what I think will happen to be honest though replace Mississippi with Alabama and Georgia.

 

[unprincipled peter]

the native situation is still going to be tense as long as the whites continue to push encroachment to the max, which is pretty much a given. The natives didn't fight because they were encouraged, but because they saw the whites as invaders. What may change is their ability to obtain weapons. Failure to obtain weapons means their plight gets worse, as the whites will have an easier time displacing them.

 

[Seawolf]

the native situation is still going to be tense as long as the whites continue to push encroachment to the max, which is pretty much a given.

Note, if William Henry Harrison upholds what the courts decided - which is that native tribes with a Constitution are legal entities - then things could get quite legally complicated.

To the point that relocation is out and integration becomes the only real option.

 

[farmerted555]

Note, if William Henry Harrison upholds what the courts decided - which is that native tribes with a Constitution are legal entities - then things could get quite legally complicated.

To the point that relocation is out and integration becomes the only real option.

Assuming Old Tippecanoe bothers to wear an overcoat on his Inauguration Day.

 

[Seawolf]

May 20, 1808 - United States​

Secretary of War Henry Dearborn and Secretary of the Navy Robert Smith met - it was quite likely that the United States would be going up against the Franco-Spanish Alliance. This meant figuring out a war strategy, realistically, the United States Navy was unlikely to be able to challenge a Franco-Spanish Battle Line until at least 1810 - furthermore they would likely need more slipways to get building more ships of the line in case something particularly nasty showed up. Right now, they just had USS Patriot and USS Excelsior at their disposal to deal with any ships of the line - and well, the French and Spanish had significantly more ships of the line in service than the United States had building. The only thing that would keep them from completely manhandling the United States Navy was the Royal Navy keeping them bottled up.

However, there was always the chance that could change no matter how remote that the blockade would be broken. This meant that at a minimum, Cuba needed to be taken from the Spanish in order to deprive the Spanish of an easy jumping off point for any counter-invasion. Realistically, if in the future, Spain decides also to take a swing at the United States again, they would need to make Cuba part of the Union to continue depriving the Spanish from such an easy jumping off point to invade the mainland. It was a massive conundrum to be honest, Cuba had a massive population and a significant population of Freedmen. It could throw the politics of the United States into chaos as they would likely be adding a territory with population equal to the state of New York to the Union. But, that was a risk that they would have to take - Smith was actually hopeful that they could make Cuba part of the United States, for then the United States Navy wouldn’t be disbanded again as it would be political suicide to do so.

It was decided that should Congress declare war, Andrew Jackson would lead the invasion of Spanish East Florida while the Navy blockaded Cuba and St. Augustine. Meanwhile, feelers would be sent out to Spanish West Florida to see how they felt about annexation as there was a known quantity of Americans living in the territory. As for Cuba, an army of twenty-five thousand would be raised to invade the island while the US Navy blockaded the major Cuban anchorages: Havana, Santiago, Guantanamo Bay, Nipe Bay, Cienfuegos, Matazanos, and the Bay of Pigs. The Navy would have just enough ships to make it doable.

The biggest problem though would be finding generals capable of leading the invasions as most of the generals who had served in the Revolutionary War were dead - sure many of the officers who had commanded Regiments and Brigades had been recalled as the Army expanded, but this was very much a temporary solution. Yes, West Point had expanded its 1808 class massively, but those new officers wouldn’t hit the Army until 1812 and they needed officers now.

 

[piratedude]

I don't envy the American troops going up against the tropical heat and diseases

 

[Seawolf]

I don't envy the American troops going up against the tropical heat and diseases

Nope and infantry uniforms for the time frame really weren't suited for the tropics either.

EDIT - @piratedude - how many troops did Spain have in East Florida and Cuba?

I am only expecting there to be maybe 500 or so in East Florida but there's probably at least a few thousand in Cuba.

 

[piratedude]

Hm, so, there are only a handful of forts a d batteries between St Marys, Georgia and St Augustine.

• Fort San Carlos, Fernandina, Amelia Island. A short ways from St Marys. Recall that i mentioned before the commandant, Justo Lopez, of the fort/battery of the town was in an a pro-american plot otl. At this time the Spanish were in the middle of expanding the battery into a more proper fort. Judging from the 1811-1812 map, i reckon the garrison to be about a 100 men (a compañía)
  
• Fort San Nicholas, South side of the St. Johns river in Jacksonville, guarding the ferry crossing. I'm finding almost nothing about this fort, so I think a safe bet for such a strategic point is also 100 men
• Fort Mose, a historically free black fortified settlement guarding the northern approach to St Augustine. There's not a lot of information on the size of the new garrison when the Spanish returned but if it follows a similar trend to how small the city garrison had become, probably only 30-60 men (so one or two pelotón)
  
• St. Augustine, the city had a pretty robust system of earthworks and batteries, anchored on the north east by Castillo de San Marcos. There's also a lightly fortified watchtower/light house across the matanzas on Anastasia Island. The regular garrison at this time would have been about 285 men (about 3 compañía), though the population of the city was around 3,000 people so they could swell with conscripts and volunteers.
• a few miles south, Fort Matanzas (more a battery, really) guards the southern inlet of the matanzas. Usually had a 7 to 10 man garrison (an escuadra)
  

So in all about 555 regular soldiers, though keep in mind that like the other Spanish colonies, the commanding officers would be mostly Peninsulares, while the enlisted would be almost entirely local Floridanos. I don't really have any info an him but I suspect that Justo Lopez would have been a Floridano frustrated at his inability to advance his career any higher under the spanish class system.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Great chapter! Also, could Florida’s cities in the Caribbean flourish as vital geopolitical and economic points of entrance? Cities like Miami, by the way.

 

[Seawolf]

Hm, so, there are only a handful of forts a d batteries between St Marys, Georgia and St Augustine.

I've been to the Castillo de San Marcos - its a pretty impressive structure actually.

So East Florida can probably be overwhelmed by an invasion force roughly 10,000 strong - provided that the USN neutralizes the other forts in the region. The biggest hassle will be laying siege to Castillo de San Marcos as its brilliantly placed and its a Starfort with earthen ramparts, a ditch (which livestock is typically put in), etc. The US Army doesn't have any experience with taking this kind of fortification and its withstood sieges before.

So in all about 555 regular soldiers, though keep in mind that like the other Spanish colonies, the commanding officers would be mostly Peninsulares, while the enlisted would be almost entirely local Floridanos. I don't really have any info an him but I suspect that Justo Lopez would have been a Floridano frustrated at his inability to advance his career any higher under the spanish class system.

Good to see that my guess was fairly accurate. But the officers would be native to Spain while the enlisted is native to the area they're from. Alright, I can actually see the Enlisted fighting like bastards but the officers less so...

Cuba though....Cuba probably has seven or eight thousand troops.

Also, could Florida’s cities in the Caribbean flourish as vital geopolitical and economic points of entrance? Cities like Miami, by the way.

Miami IIRC was actually pretty small at this point in time, Tampa didn't exist at all, Pensacola did but IIRC it was fairly small, same with Jacksonville, the only "large" city in Spanish East Florida would have been St. Augustine.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

I've been to the Castillo de San Marcos - its a pretty impressive structure actually.

So East Florida can probably be overwhelmed by an invasion force roughly 10,000 strong - provided that the USN neutralizes the other forts in the region. The biggest hassle will be laying siege to Castillo de San Marcos as its brilliantly placed and its a Starfort with earthen ramparts, a ditch (which livestock is typically put in), etc. The US Army doesn't have any experience with taking this kind of fortification and its withstood sieges before.



Good to see that my guess was fairly accurate. But the officers would be native to Spain while the enlisted is native to the area they're from. Alright, I can actually see the Enlisted fighting like bastards but the officers less so...

Cuba though....Cuba probably has seven or eight thousand troops.



Miami IIRC was actually pretty small at this point in time, Tampa didn't exist at all, Pensacola did but IIRC it was fairly small, same with Jacksonville, the only "large" city in Spanish East Florida would have been St. Augustine.

Good point. I am grateful that you wrote this timeline, because it has been a delight to read.

 

[Seawolf]

Good point. I am grateful that you wrote this timeline, because it has been a delight to read.

Thank you, I must admit its been a delight to write!

 

[piratedude]

So East Florida can probably be overwhelmed by an invasion force roughly 10,000 strong - provided that the USN neutralizes the other forts in the region.

Yup, in fact, during the brief Patriot War of 1812, just 200 men managed to sweep their way to the gates of St. Augustine

The US Army doesn't have any experience with taking this kind of fortification and its withstood sieges before.

I mean there would have been some experience at the end of the revolutionary War from Yorktown, both Dearborn and Lafayette had been involved there.

 

[Seawolf]

Yup, in fact, during the brief Patriot War of 1812, just 200 men managed to sweep their way to the gates of St. Augustine

I mean there would have been some experience at the end of the revolutionary War from Yorktown, both Dearborn and Lafayette had been involved there.

So 10,000 men will go through East Florida like a blender then. In fact, the scale of the advance might actually catch the Govenor of East Florida off guard.

Still, Castillo de San Marcos is a very impressive fortification...much more impressive then anything the British had a Yorktown - as below is the monstrosity you have to assault.

 

[piratedude]

Yeah, St Augustine itself will be a tough nut to crack, but with numbers like those its probably within American interests to outright assault the city if it isn't intimidated into surrendering, if only because it will be difficult to sustain such a large force in Florida between the tropical conditions and hit and run tactics by Seminole forces

 

[Seawolf]

Yeah, St Augustine itself will be a tough nut to crack, but with numbers like those its probably within American interests to outright assault the city if it isn't intimidated into surrendering, if only because it will be difficult to sustain such a large force in Florida between the tropical conditions and hit and run tactics by Seminole forces

Of course this assumes that the governor of East Florida doesn't do something stupid like ordering the extermination of the Seminole Indians to prevent them from allying with the Americans.

 

[Ninjakirito6]

I am curious on the diplomatic reaction of the US declaring war on France & Spain right as Spain rebelled agaisn't France. Seems like there will be a "Oops, Sorry, but we will keep what we took" moment there when they find out.

 

[Seawolf]

I am curious on the diplomatic reaction of the US declaring war on France & Spain right as Spain rebelled agaisn't France. Seems like there will be a "Oops, Sorry, but we will keep what we took" moment there when they find out.

Frankly, the situation in Spain was sufficiently confusing that I won't be surprised if the United States doesn't find out until after East Florida has been fully taken, West Florida has been annexed, and troops have landed in Cuba.