Let me only note that too many ships sunk and too few ships captured it looks to me. This is still wooden ships fighting for the most part with solid shot, Paixhans shell gun has been invented a little over a decade ago but it's still in very limited use worldwide while facing significant range constraints when compared to long guns, it would take another 15 years till the Crimea for explosive shells to come to their own... and even then a very significant portion of ship artillery was still using solid shot and would keep doing so for some more years.
 
The Hellenic Navy at the end of the Greek for Independence had 31 warships, with 4 steamships. By 1840 ITTL, it's a bit higher with about 40 ships, of which 7 are steamships. There has definitely been a higher prioritization of the Hellenic Navy ITTL as compared to OTL, where it was basically ignored, but in terms of size it really pales in comparison to the 94 warships of the Ottoman Navy, or the ~90 ships of the Egyptian Navy. Some of their ships are also getting really old, the Hellas (OTL's HMS Elephant) for example is 54 years old and still serving in the Greek Navy, although it has likely been reduced to a training ship by this time.

There has also been a higher emphasis on modernization in the Hellenic Navy ITTL compared to OTL thanks in large part to the influence of Ioannis Kapodistrias and King Leopold, so there isn't as much of a traditionalist versus modernist conflict in the Navy as there was in OTL. Its still there to an extent, but the modernists are clearly winning. The Hellenic Naval Academy was also founded in 1832 as opposed to 1845, so there have been several classes of young and talented naval officers that have filtered into the Hellenic Navy. So while the Greek Navy may be relatively small compared to its neighbors, it can still punch above its weight on occasion.

That said, I feel as though I should revise my earlier comment on Greece intervening in the Second Egyptian Ottoman War. The Greek Government will not be getting involved in the Egyptian Ottoman War in any official military capacity as they know full well that it would end poorly for them. Because of this they will do their utmost to avoid any armed confrontations with the Ottoman Empire for the immediate future. There are elements of Greek Society who do wish to get involved, however, if for no other reason than to spite the Turks or to liberate their kinsmen. As a result, any military action on the part of the Greeks would be the work of individual volunteers traveling across the border to help the Ottoman Greeks free themselves as Lascaris said earlier rather than a proper invasion by the Greek State. Most Greeks though are quite happy to sit on the sidelines and watch their two most hated adversaries fight each other to the death.

If the Greeks did interject themselves into the conflict it would most likely be diplomatically, and probably Leopold's doing. In OTL, he actually played a small, but important part in the OTL Oriental Crisis of 1840 by using his relationship as Queen Victoria's uncle and King Louis Philippe's son in law to help foster a detente between Britain and France. Whether they were actually ever going to come to blows I can't say, but it was apparently a real concern to Leopold and the Belgian Government that it necessitated his immediate action, it is also considered one of his defining diplomatic achievements so there must be some truth to that however small it may be. Leopold may try to do something similar here or he may not since his situation is almost entirely different ITTL.

Let me only note that too many ships sunk and too few ships captured it looks to me. This is still wooden ships fighting for the most part with solid shot, Paixhans shell gun has been invented a little over a decade ago but it's still in very limited use worldwide while facing significant range constraints when compared to long guns, it would take another 15 years till the Crimea for explosive shells to come to their own... and even then a very significant portion of ship artillery was still using solid shot and would keep doing so for some more years.
I've revised the losses in the battle down a little bit, with the Ottomans losing only 13 ships in the Battle of Alexandria as opposed to 17 and the Egyptians losing 17 ships instead of 23. Most of the losses on both sides come from the smaller escort ships (brigs, corvettes, sloops, and gunboats) rather than the larger Ships of the Line or the frigates. Additionally , I've made it so some of the "casualties" are actually captured ships rather than sunk ships, the Ottoman now capture 3 ships in the battle, while the Egyptians captured 9. So the revised total number of "sunk" ships is now only 17 as opposed to the 40 that I had before. It's probably still on the higher side, but it was technically two separate naval battles with a sporadic naval bombardment in between, not to mention there was a grand total of 170 ship so hopefully that's not too outrageous all things considered.

On one last note, this timeline is currently in second place for the Best Colonialism and Revolutions Era Timelines, so I just want to thank each and everyone of you who has voted for this timeline. Originally, writing this timeline was just a fun little hobby for me to do in my free time that I thought would amount to nothing, but I am truly honored and amazed at how much interest this timeline has attracted in the five months that I have been posting this timeline on this forum. So thank you all once again for all your kind words, your advice, and even your criticism as it has helped me write a better timeline.
 
The Hellenic Navy at the end of the Greek for Independence had 31 warships, with 4 steamships. By 1840 ITTL, it's a bit higher with about 40 ships, of which 7 are steamships. There has definitely been a higher prioritization of the Hellenic Navy ITTL as compared to OTL, where it was basically ignored, but in terms of size it really pales in comparison to the 94 warships of the Ottoman Navy, or the ~90 ships of the Egyptian Navy. Some of their ships are also getting really old, the Hellas (OTL's HMS Elephant) for example is 54 years old and still serving in the Greek Navy, although it has likely been reduced to a training ship by this time.

Not necessarily, this is still the era of wooden ships after all... which means that it's an open question how much of a 54 year ship is common with the original ship beyond the nameplate, which is how a ship built in 1760 like HmS Victory was still leading the RN battleline at Trafalgar 45 years later.

That said Greek emphasis would be still out of necessity on quality over quantity, they can't much Ottoman or Egyptian numbers under most circumstances but it's far easier to find first rate sailors in a country with a large merchant navy and Greece's geography.
 
Not necessarily, this is still the era of wooden ships after all... which means that it's an open question how much of a 54 year ship is common with the original ship beyond the nameplate, which is how a ship built in 1760 like HmS Victory was still leading the RN battleline at Trafalgar 45 years later.

That said Greek emphasis would be still out of necessity on quality over quantity, they can't much Ottoman or Egyptian numbers under most circumstances but it's far easier to find first rate sailors in a country with a large merchant navy and Greece's geography.
I'm not an expert on ships by any means, but from what I can gather on a cursory glance it seems that most wooden fighting ships of that vintage had a lifespan of about 45-50 years, provided they didn't sink. Obviously there are exceptions like the HMS Victory, but even that was reconstructed extensively from 1800 to 1803 after being converted to a hospital ship for some years. In the case of the Elephant, it was broken up in OTL by the British Navy in 1830, but I think it can still find more use in Hellenic Navy for many years to come as the Hellas ITTL and the current conflict between Egypt and the Ottomans certainly provides an impetus for keeping it around.

I definitely agree though that TTL's Greece will be aiming for quality over quantity and their sailors are certainly among the best in the world.
 
Hey, long time lurker who recently created an account here. Just wanna say that this is a great TL and it helped me learn a lot about modern Greek history that I knew nothing of previously. I voted for this TL in the Turtledoves.

That being said with an earlier industrialization of Greece, better management under King Leopold and Kapodistrias, and less instability could we see Greece become an economic power in the Balkans and/or Eastern Mediterranean within a century from 1840?
 
Hey, long time lurker who recently created an account here. Just wanna say that this is a great TL and it helped me learn a lot about modern Greek history that I knew nothing of previously. I voted for this TL in the Turtledoves.

That being said with an earlier industrialization of Greece, better management under King Leopold and Kapodistrias, and less instability could we see Greece become an economic power in the Balkans and/or Eastern Mediterranean within a century from 1840?
Thank you very much and welcome aboard!

I certainly think they can be a regional economic power, but there is a lot that can happen between 1840 and 1940 ITTL some of which will be good for Greece and some of which will be bad. Their agricultural industry is about 30-40 years ahead of schedule compared to OTL and they have developed a mining and smelting industry well in advance of OTL as well. They've begun to build railroads across the country and there is a burgeoning steamship industry in Greece too, not to mention the tourism industry which is still in its early infancy in Greece at the moment ITTL. Their greatest economic strength right now though is their massive shipping industry, which was also their greatest economic driver in OTL as well. Their merchant marine fleet during the 1800's spanned the entire width of the Mediterranean and fielded hundreds of ships, even today they have the largest Merchant Marine fleet in the world with over 5,000 ships under flag according to a report from Lloyd's List in 2015.
 
Part 48: Fire and Thunder on the Plains of Aleppo
Part 48: Fire and Thunder on the Plains of Syria

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Egyptian Soldiers in the Battle for Aleppo

The situation in Syria would steadily turn from bad to worse for Ibrahim Pasha over the course of April and May. Day in and day out, week after week dispatches from his deputy in Aleppo Rashad Bey arrived at his camp outside the rebel held stronghold of Hamah.[1] Each message would prove grimmer than the last as the Ottomans progressively advanced upon the great city of Aleppo. The Kurd Mountains would fall to the Turks on the 10th of April, their defenses in the Afrin Valley would be overrun three days later on the 13th, and on the 18th 45,000 Ottoman soldiers had reached the outskirts of Aleppo itself. Rashad Bey held firm, however, and managed to lead his 8,000 Egyptian soldiers and 1,500 Arab militiamen to a surprising victory against the Ottoman assault on the 19th despite being outnumbered nearly 5 to 1. A second assault on the 21st and a third on the 25th were similarly repelled by the Egyptians defending Aleppo.

Osman Pasha and the Ottomans were not deterred by these setbacks, however, as they gradually settled in for a protracted siege of the ancient city. Aside from its status as the gateway to Syria, Aleppo had once been the third largest city in the Ottoman Empire as well as one of its richest, serving as a terminus along the old Silk Road to the East and the King’s Highway to the South. Its prestige alone made it an enticing target of Ottoman operations in theater, but it was its strategic location that made it so necessary for the Ottomans to seize the city. The importance of Aleppo was not lost on Ibrahim Pasha either, as he had personally seen to the fortification of Aleppo and its surrounding environs in the years between the two wars. He stationed thousands of his best soldiers and one of his most loyal lieutenants, Rashad Bey, to defend the city against the Ottomans at all costs. Should it fall to the Turks, then it would signal to all the apparent weakness of Egypt, which more than anything would threaten to undo all he and his father had worked to accomplish for all these many years.

Unfortunately for Ibrahim, he could not immediately march forth himself to rescue his men trapped at Aleppo as Hamah and much of the Syrian countryside remained a breeding ground of unrest and agitation against Egyptian rule in the region. His attempts to obtain their surrender through coercion and compassion had met with repeated failure as the local mullahs and Sheikhs wanted nothing more to do with the Kavalali. He was also limited in his actions by his relatively poor manpower, which by all estimates amounted to 80,000 men dispersed across Palestine and Syria which would take many weeks to fully assemble in advance of any effort to relieve Aleppo. Though he was by no means averse to sending men to their deaths if need be, his experience in Greece had instilled in him the dangers of wasting his men when he could not be easily reinforced. With reinforcements from Egypt hampered by the attack on Alexandria at the end of March, and the continuing raids on Lower Egypt by the Ottoman Navy diverting most of his ships, Ibrahim could ill afford to lose his men on a needless assault against Hamah. To that end, he resolved to slowly starve the rebels into submission and hold out hope that his men in Aleppo would hold out until then.

Osman Pasha had no such restraint, however, as he sent wave after wave of Ottoman soldiers against the walls of Aleppo on an almost daily occurence, although they were probing efforts rather than full assaults in most cases. When it became apparent that brute force would not achieve victory, the Ottomans turned to siege tactics. They began erecting a series of trenches and earthworks around the perimeter of Aleppo in a bid to cut the defenders off from the outside world and they even dammed the Queiq River to further hamper the Egyptians within the city. Their efforts were relatively successful in securing the roads to the North and West of Aleppo, but they encountered stiffer resistance from the Egyptians to the South and East. Rashad Bey had hastily erected a series of trenches and casemates around Aleppo which he successfully managed to hold for a time, but without help from Ibrahim, it would be impossible to fend off the Ottomans for long.

Ibrahim to his credit did send men and supplies when he could spare them, sending 3,000 men on the 1st of May, and another 5,000 soldiers would be sent two weeks later, on the 15th. This second force would be of little help, however, as the Ottomans responded with reinforcements of their own following the surrender of Gaziantep on the 4th of May and the capture of Latakia on the 11th. By the end of May, the entire Ottoman army in theater, some 98,000 men had been concentrated at Aleppo which proved too much for the 10,000 plus defenders within Aleppo’s walls. With the disparity between them even worse, Rashad Bey was brutally beaten back from his outer defenses by the endless waves of Turkish infantry, effectively severing his link to the outside world only hours before the second band of Egyptian reinforcements arrived on the 18th. Before losing his lifeline, Rashad Bey dispatched one final envoy to Ibrahim Pasha informing his commander of his imminent defeat and implored him to succeed where he had failed.

Now completely cut off, conditions within Aleppo rapidly collapsed as food shortages almost instantly became a concern for both the Egyptians and the people of Aleppo. Though some food and water had been stored prior to the battle, a large influx of refugees from the countryside had fled to the city in advance of the Ottoman army putting a greater strain on the supply situation in Aleppo. Attempts to distribute the rationed food amongst the local populace met with stiff resistance when many received less than they needed and some received nothing at all while the Egyptians received their fill and the refugee populace received food that many believed was rightfully theirs. Within days, the situation deteriorated to point where the people of Aleppo were rioting in the streets, setting fires to government buildings, and even murdering Egyptian soldiers and civilians. To quell the unrest, the Egyptian soldiers used deadly force to disperse the rioters and while they were certainly successful in ending the violence at that time, they had also succeeded in turning the entire city against them.

Several days later a second riot would break out in the city, prompting the Ottomans to make what would be the final push against Aleppo. Though Rashad Bey’s men fought valiantly and even succeeding in pushing the Ottomans back from their wall for a time, they were ultimately undone when a local man shot a bullet through Rashad Bey’s heart as he led the defense, killing him instantly. With their commander dead, their munitions growing desperately short, and the city under siege from without and within, the Egyptian soldiers were quickly overwhelmed by the endless waves of charging Turks. Even still, the Egyptians made one final attempt to holdout in the city’s medieval citadel, as 700 Egyptians would successfully manage to escape there. Despite this, they too were soon forced to surrender two days later on the 1st of June when it became apparent just how bleak their situation truly was; the siege of Aleppo was over after a little less than two months.


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The City and Castle of Aleppo (circa 1760)

When news of Aleppo’s fall reached Ibrahim Pasha’s camp outside Hamah, dread immediately filled his heart as he had clearly underestimated the lengths to which the Ottomans had improved over the years. While he had been relatively successful in subduing much of the Syrian countryside over the past two months, Hamah still remained in rebel hands. Though he had hoped to starve the rebels into submission he knew that he no longer had that luxury now that Aleppo had fallen. With the Ottoman Army of Osman Pasha now free to march south against him, it was imperative that Ibrahim take Hamah. The call was sent out to the city surrender and live, or resist and die; quite predictably they chose to resist. With no other option, Ibrahim Pasha ordered his men to storm the city and take it by force; there would be no prisoners taken and there would be no mercy for those who resisted.

The assault on Hamah was fierce, but after a bitter two and a half-month siege, the beleaguered defenders were thoroughly exhausted and malnourished, with many proving unable to even lift their weapons or raise their swords against the Egyptians as they rushed the city’s defenses. They were also predominantly peasants with little to no military experience making them poor adversaries for the highly disciplined and incredibly agitated Egyptian soldiers firing upon them. Within all of twenty minutes, the battered remains of Hamah’s walls were occupied and soon after the city had fallen. As promised, Ibrahim had the offending rebels put to the sword and the town was given over to 24 hours of looting and pillaging.

With Hamah subjugated once more, Ibrahim gave his men one day’s rest before setting off to meet their destiny. Leaving behind the smallest garrison that he dared to garrison the ruined city, Ibrahim and his diminished army of 41,700 soldiers began its precipitous march north in the hopes he could meet the Ottomans on a battleground of his choosing, rather than theirs. He would ultimately decide upon the hills East of Idlib as his choice of battlefields and began to firmly entrench his force atop the highest hill, with stakes and stones thrown up before his force. His Force was divided into three columns, with his trusted Egyptians holding the center and exposed left flank, while his Arab militiamen were aligned along his right flank near the marshes of Matkh Swamp. Ibrahim’s preparations were not a moment too soon as Osman Pasha proved more than willingly to oblige the Egyptian commander with a pitched battle, advancing from Aleppo at a modest pace one day later on the 6th of June.

Among Osman Pasha’s number was a young Prussian officer by the name of Helmut von Moltke. Captain Moltke had journeyed to the Ottoman Empire in 1835 to serve in an advisory role to the Ottoman Army at the personal request of Sultan Mahmud II. Mahmud had shown a great deal of interest in Moltke’s great talent and ingenuity as a soldier and personally wrote to Berlin asking for his transfer to Constantinople for several months, a term which would later be extended into several years. Captain Moltke primarily resided in Constantinople where he served as an instructor and advisor at the Mekteb-i-Harbiye, developing young Turkish boys into skilled army officers and talented leaders. He was also given exclusive access to map and survey the Ottoman capital and its surrounding districts, as well as many of the European and Anatolian territories of the Empire and would go on to make some of the most intricate maps of the Empire.
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Captain Moltke (Left) and Hafiz Osman Pasha (Center)

Captain Moltke's keen eye for detail also extended to military formations and tactics, specifically artillery, which allowed him to accurately understand the strengths and weaknesses of Ibrahim’s position. Captain Moltke based on his experience as a soldier and surveyor, cautioned against a frontal assault as the Ottoman guns would be at a disadvantage firing uphill upon the Egyptians. Instead, he advised seizing the lightly defended hills west of Ibrahim, where they could position their own cannons on a more equal footing with the Egyptians. Many of Osman Pasha’s own officers and mullahs disagreed with the young German captain’s advice, arguing that it would take too long to preposition their forces to Moltke’s specifications and in that time Ibrahim would likely retreat denying them the opportunity to achieve a glorious victory on the field of battle. Though he had come to respect the young Prussian captain and appreciate his opinions, Osman Pasha ordered the attack to begin at once despite Moltke’s objections.[2]

In a display emblematic of the Grande Armée, 102 Egyptian cannons erupted upon the advancing Turkish soldiers ripping their ranks to shreds in a matter of minutes. The 94 guns comprising the booming Ottoman response, while certainly effective at killing scores and maiming hundreds more, was less effective than its adversaries’ guns which killed hundreds and wounded thousands more. Thunder filled the air and fire filled the sky as lead and iron ripped through flesh and bone. As the artillery duel continued unabated, the Ottoman infantry began to hasten their march upon the Egyptian lines. Those men in the Turkish vanguard would suffer terrible casualties on their march up the hill to get within firing range, as cannonballs plowed through tightly packed ranks of men. Of the 20,000 men leading the charge, only 9000 would come within firing range of the Egyptian lines, the rest were either dead, too wounded, or too frightened to move forward.

Once they reached the crest of the hill, however, they immediately began to engage the Egyptian soldiers opposite them, lessening the blow on their compatriots further down the hill who came streaming in behind them en masse. Within minutes tens of thousands of Ottoman soldiers of the Mansure Army would exchange shot after shot with Ibrahim’s force to brutal effect. Each volley ripped the Egyptians’ ranks to shreds, yet despite this they bravely stood their ground and gave as good as they took in the battle. They even succeeded in turning back the Ottoman cavalry when it attempted to flank Ibrahim’s position from the west. However, their efforts would all be for naught, as the Ottoman attack had met with far better results against the irregular Arab infantry composing the Egyptian right flank. While they managed to hold their ground for a time, the untrained and undisciplined Arab militiamen completely collapsed when the Ottomans fixed their bayonets and began their charge. Within seconds a quarter of his force was sent running and his remaining men now found themselves outflanked, forcing Ibrahim to sound the retreat.

The Egyptians were ultimately beaten, but not after inflicting a terrible cost on the Ottomans. Osman Pasha suffered over 7,600 dead, and 17,000 wounded, half of whom would be stuck in hospital for many weeks to come, in return for about 3,200 dead Egyptians, 11,000 wounded Egyptians, and 5,400 Egyptian soldiers who were captured during their retreat. Another 6,000 Arab militiamen would desert Ibrahim after the battle reducing his already inferior force to little more than 26,000 bloody and beaten men. More troubling were the loss of his cannons, of the 102 Egyptian guns deployed in the battle, 30 had to be destroyed and another 23 had been captured by the Turks before their crews could properly spike them. No longer capable of standing against the Ottomans with the forces available to him, Ibrahim raced to the neighboring town of Idlib, where he stripped the city of its garrison, plundered the city of its riches, and put it to the torch to deny its use to the Ottomans. From there, he raced to Hamah where he did the same and then moved for Homs.

He would be stopped on the road by the old Frenchman Suleiman Pasha who had arrived from Damascus with 14,000 reinforcements for Ibrahim Pasha. In the days prior to the engagement near Idlib, Suleiman Pasha had succeeded in crushing the final outposts of the Syrian rebellion around Damascus, permitting him to march North to aid his commander. Ibrahim would be supplemented even further by the arrival of his Palestinian Allies, the Abd al-Hadi clan, as well as the men of Mount Lebanon, under their leader Emir Bashir Shibab. Most importantly, 6,000 men from Egypt under the command of Salim Pasha arrived with fresh stocks of powder and lead, as well as two dozen field batteries to help replace the stock lost at Idlib. With his force rebuilt barely a week after the battle of Idlib, Ibrahim readied himself for the inevitable rematch against Osman Pasha.

This rematch would prove to be surprisingly slow in its proceedings due in large part to the death of Sultan Mahmud II only days before the battle of Idlib. Mahmud had been plagued with a series of illnesses and ailments for many years, yet despite this he soldiered on for his Empire. Ultimately though, the consumption that ate away at his health would win out on the 1st of June 1840 leaving the throne of the Ottoman Empire to his like-minded son Abdulmejid. Suffice to say this turn of events greatly disheartened the Ottoman soldiers who had achieved all they had achieved because of their great sultan, whose indominable will had pulled the Ottoman military into the 19th century. Now that he was gone, much of the vigor that had fueled them to victory only days before evaporated in an instance.

It could not have taken place at a worse time as well, now that Ibrahim was properly reinforced, he took the offensive and prepared to strike against the demoralized Ottomans. Although they still outnumbered him , the disparity between their two forces had been significantly reduced when Osman Pasha dispatched 18,000 men to seize Tartus leaving him with only 56,000 soldiers to Ibrahim's now 48,000 soldiers. Ibrahim was also aided immensely by the onset of a sudden sandstorm which concealed his movements towards the Ottoman ranks for several crucial moments. Thanks to high winds and low visibility, the Egyptians and their allies managed to come within 500 paces of the Ottoman camp before being finally spotted by the Turkish sentries. Catching the Ottomans off guard, Osman Pasha quickly ordered his men into battle formation, only for his men to lethargically and halfheartedly move into position.

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Ibrahim at the Battle of Ar Rastan

The thunderous storm would continue to wreak havoc on both the Egyptians and the Ottomans as their accuracy suffered immensely in the ensuing engagement, only the cannons fired straight and true and only under careful aim. With gunfire proving largely ineffective, the battle soon developed into a melee as the Egyptians charged down upon the Ottomans. Demoralized, confused, and now under attack, the Ottoman will to fight steadily collapsed after a brief, but bitter fight. The battle of Ar Rastan, despite its relative brevity of only 50 minutes, would prove to be an especially brutal battle with nearly 14,000 men dying on both sides; many would die in accidents due to the storm, rather than from wounds incurred in the battle. A further 23,000 would be injured in the flurry between the Egyptian and Ottoman armies, and nearly 7,800 Ottoman soldiers and officers would be captured in the engagement, including one Captain Helmut von Moltke. The Egyptians would suffer a significant loss of their own, however, with the loss of Suleiman Pasha who suffered a gunshot wound to the gut, which ultimately cost him his life five days later on the 17th of June.

Despite taking the field, the Egyptians would prove unable to take advantage of this victory at Ar Rastan. In the days following the battle, reports from Alexandria would reveal that Muhammad Ali had fallen terribly ill, forcing Ibrahim to return to Egypt and assume the regency in his incapacity.[3] With Ibrahim gone and Suleiman Pasha on his deathbed, command of the army fell to Salim Pasha. Salim Pasha would prove to be a poor replacement for Ibrahim, as he would dither in the Syrian countryside for several weeks before ultimately withdrawing to Homs in the face of an Ottoman Army in late July, effectively abandoning all territory north of Homs to the Ottomans without so much as a fight. Osman Pasha would similarly fail to take advantage of this new opportunity, only advancing to the outskirts of Homs where he waited cautiously for weeks on end, without so much as a shot fired in hostility. It soon became apparent why, his master, the young Sultan Abdulmejid desired peace.

After seeing his father eaten away by a lifetime of war, Sultan Abdulmejid had become predisposed towards peace. His armies had secured much of Syria up to a line running from Tartus to Homs to Tadmur and his navy had inflicted a strong, if relatively indecisive blow against the Egyptians in late March. With Muhammad Ali seemingly on his deathbed as well, it would have appeared to all that peace would soon be at hand provided an amicable arrangement could be reached between the Egyptians and the Ottomans. Ibrahim for his part also desired peace, although for a less idealistic rational, his father’s domain was suffering from terrible instability as rebels, new and old rose up against him. Egypt was also suffering from a terrible economic depression as the Ottoman fleet continued to disrupt trade in the region, his navy was evenly matched at sea for the moment, and his manpower was nearly tapped in its entirety. Most importantly, the Powers circled like vultures in the sky awaiting any signs of weakness on either side to swoop in for the kill.

Though the occasional skirmish would continue in the wilderness of Syria and on the Mediterranean Sea, a truce of sorts came into effect across the theater. With an uneasy ceasefire effectively settling over Syria, representatives of the Ottoman Porte and the Egyptian Khedivate met to discuss terms for peace. Soon though an incident between a French ship and an Ottoman vessel off the coast of Cyprus would threaten to reignite the conflict in its entirety.

Next Time: The Cypriot Affair


[1] In OTL, Rashad Bey died in Jerusalem during the 1833-1834 Palestinian Revolt. In this timeline, he survives the Peasants revolt and is later moved to Aleppo where he serves in a similar capacity to OTL.

[2] A similar event took place in the OTL battle of Nezib in which Moltke the Elder served as an Ottoman advisor and commander of the artillery. IOTL, however, he advised Osman Pasha to withdraw to a more defensible location to engage Ibrahim instead of their easily surmountable position at Mezar.

[3] There are accounts that believe Muhammad Ali suffered from senility in his last years, or a condition very similar to it either because of his growing paranoia following the war, or because of silver nitrate which he took to treat an especially bad bout of Dysentary. ITTL he unfortunately develops something of the sort a few years earlier forcing Ibrahim to return to Egypt.
 
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Greece laughs manically as they continue to wreck each other's navies.

You know, this was also my first thought, but unless I've badly misread the Egyptian leadership it doesn't sound like they're at all interested in expansion at Greece's expense despite their earlier activities on behalf of the Sultan during the Greek war. Even if they knocked the absolute stuffing out of the Ottomans in this latest fight, presumably they'd be tied up for some time with keeping control of Syria, the Levant, the Hejaz, etc., no? One wonders if the best outcome for the Greeks would not be an Egyptian victory - unless, of course, that victory prompts the Powers to come swooping in to the Porte's aid.
 
You know, this was also my first thought, but unless I've badly misread the Egyptian leadership it doesn't sound like they're at all interested in expansion at Greece's expense despite their earlier activities on behalf of the Sultan during the Greek war. Even if they knocked the absolute stuffing out of the Ottomans in this latest fight, presumably they'd be tied up for some time with keeping control of Syria, the Levant, the Hejaz, etc., no? One wonders if the best outcome for the Greeks would not be an Egyptian victory - unless, of course, that victory prompts the Powers to come swooping in to the Porte's aid.

I was thinking in the case of any future Ottoman-Greek war. The Ottomans may call on (or give concessions to) the Egyptians for aid. If both sides continue to wreck each other all the better for Greece.
 
I'm actually short of wondering whether Cyprus becomes the TTL Crete. Granted it would be more difficult for Greek supplies and volunteers to reach it due to distance but by the same token it's also rather more distant from Constantinople as well. And if Egypt remains effectively independent and controlling Palestine and Lebanon as the case seems to be here...
 
You know, this was also my first thought, but unless I've badly misread the Egyptian leadership it doesn't sound like they're at all interested in expansion at Greece's expense despite their earlier activities on behalf of the Sultan during the Greek war. Even if they knocked the absolute stuffing out of the Ottomans in this latest fight, presumably they'd be tied up for some time with keeping control of Syria, the Levant, the Hejaz, etc., no? One wonders if the best outcome for the Greeks would not be an Egyptian victory - unless, of course, that victory prompts the Powers to come swooping in to the Porte's aid.
At this point, Egypt is just trying to emerge from this war relatively intact. Their territories in the Arabian Peninsula, Palestine, and Syria are in an almost constant state of revolt, they're running low on manpower, their trade has been heavily disrupted effectively ruining their economy, and to top it all off the Powers (except for France) are all decidedly against them. So any further expansion is unlikely at this point and expansion at the expense of the Greeks isn't going to happen either. Ideally, they would be able to recapture the territories they lost in Northern Syria, but they are somewhat limited at the moment.

I was thinking in the case of any future Ottoman-Greek war. The Ottomans may call on (or give concessions to) the Egyptians for aid. If both sides continue to wreck each other all the better for Greece.
Egypt will certainly play an interesting role going forward, what that role is specifically I won't say, but it will be quite different from OTL. Greece is definitely loving their two most hated adversaries kill one another though so the longer the war goes on between them the better.

I'm actually short of wondering whether Cyprus becomes the TTL Crete. Granted it would be more difficult for Greek supplies and volunteers to reach it due to distance but by the same token it's also rather more distant from Constantinople as well. And if Egypt remains effectively independent and controlling Palestine and Lebanon as the case seems to be here...
Cyprus ITTL will mirror OTL's Crete in many ways and differ in many others as well, the distance involved being one of them as you said and Egypt's relative "independence" will certainly be another. While I won't divulge what I have in store for Cyprus just yet, the next part will set the stage for events to come on the island.
 
How are the Greeks in the Ottoman Empire reacting to the war and are they even participating in it? I can see them having the same reaction as the Greeks in Greece if their participation level is low or non-existent. This might be a question answered in the next update.
 
How are the Greeks in the Ottoman Empire reacting to the war and are they even participating in it? I can see them having the same reaction as the Greeks in Greece if their participation level is low or non-existent. This might be a question answered in the next update.

Ottoman army was not exactly in the habit of recruiting Greeks and there wasn't much of a Greek population in Syria. Some are probably making money off the war, the armies need to be supplied after all, ones in the path of the Ottoman army to Cilicia had to deal with a large Ottoman army passing through their areas but that's about it I'd think.
 
How are the Greeks in the Ottoman Empire reacting to the war and are they even participating in it? I can see them having the same reaction as the Greeks in Greece if their participation level is low or non-existent. This might be a question answered in the next update.
Aside from their trade being slightly disrupted, or benefited depending on who you ask, it hasn't effected them all that much to be honest. Most Greeks in the Empire live far from the theater of conflict, aside from a few thousand Cappadocian Greeks and Syrian Greeks, and they are not fighting for the Ottomans nor are they serving with the Egyptians for that matter either. Prior to the Greek War of Independence, they would have supplied a large portion of the Ottoman Navy's sailors, but they have long since been replaced with Turks and other Christians in the Navy and as far as I know Greeks never constituted a significant portion of the Ottoman army, beyond the occasional Janissary which have long since been abolished.

I won't say much about the Greek reaction to the war between the Egyptians and Ottomans as that will be covered in depth in the next part as you correctly predicted, but I will say that they are largely content with the current situation for the most part.
 
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