It is a dark time for Egypt. Although the Ottoman Navy has been destroyed, Imperial troops have driven the Egyptian forces from their hidden base and pursued them across the Levant.

Evading the dreaded Ottoman Army, a group of freedom fighters led by Ibrahim Pasha has established a new secret base in the remote desert region of Nahr-el-Kelb.

The Sultan, obsessed with finding young Pasha, has dispatched thousands of light cavalry troops into the far reaches of Lebanon...


Given what happened OTL though... :angel:
Not certain how long Ypsilantis would live under any circumstances, his health was pretty fragile I understand. Still if his health is in relatively better shape and with Kolletis less influential in ATL his marriage with Manto Mavrogenous may well happen in the ATL. Which would be a nice touch just on general principle (and maybe useful in the next generation :evilsmile:)

As for Panos Kolokotronis by all accounts he was more capable than his brother who was hardly a slouch in the first place. Besides which he was relatively well educated (one of the contemporary sources called him the second best educated man in the Morea, an obvious exaggeration of course since instead of university he followed his father to the field, but still he was apparently a pretty good mathematician, knew his classics and also spoke a few foreign languages. What you'd expect for someone being groomed by Theodore to follow in his steps during his years in exile in other words.) Hence I think that had he not be killed at 24 he was all too likely to be playing a central role in Greek political and military matters over the next decades. After all he has everything going for him to do so from brains and money, to family name to his own record during the war. So aide de camp may even be on the low side... were it not for the apparent influence he wields through the position.

I might have also suggested earlier that he would be a very likely candidate to play a central role to the development of European style units on the Greek side during the war of independence given his background although he'd be probably following his father's ideas for gradual conversion of existing soldiers... which was actually what was done with the chiliarchies and light battalions under Kapodistrias.
I was going to mention this in a later update but Demetrios Ypsilantis and Manto Mavrogenous did indeed marry ITTL and had two sons after the war named Constantine and Alexander. Unfortunately, I don't intend on having Demetrios survive much longer. As you said he was a rather frail and sickly person, which makes me believe his early death in 1832 was due in large part to his poor health rather than any other issue like disease or injury, so even with his improved situation in this timeline I can't see him living much longer sadly.

Panos Kolokotronis and his brother Ioannis on the other hand will definitely be prominent figures going forward both in the military and in the realm of politics which will see a bit of a reorganization following the retirement of Kapodistrias in January 1842 and the death of Demetrios Ypsilantis when that inevitably happens. At present he is married to Eleni Bouboulina, the daughter of Laskarina Bouboulina, he has three children of his own (Theodoros, Aikaterini, and Konstantinos), and is a Major General of the Hellenic Army serving in an official capacity as King Leopold's Aide de Camp. While it is technically an honorific role, the position grants Panos a lot of influence over military policy given his closeness to the King and Kapodistrias. In the more distant future, I do intend on having Panos becoming Minister of the Army and then later Prime Minister of Greece sometime in the 1850's as the spiritual successor of Ioannis Kapodistrias.

So if anyone had any doubts, the Ypsilanti and the Kolokotroneoi will remain prominent figures in this timeline going forward. :)
So interesting thread with great potentials! Yet it seems lately as inactive?
Sorry for that, I realize that I've significantly slowed down in updating this timeline over the past month or so, going from 2 or 3 updates a week to maybe 1, and I really don't have a good excuse for that beyond being busier recently. While I generally know where I want to take this timeline, the finer details unfortunately take a lot more time and effort to figure out and as I move into topics I know less and less about I'm going to be slowing down quite a bit. I'll also admit I've been playing a lot of EU4 in my free time recently and I've been researching ideas for a new timeline set in the Middle Ages rather than ideas for this timeline.:oops:

Anyway, I should have the next part up in a few hours as I'm presently making the finishing touches on it now, so hopefully that gets the thread rolling again.
Part 46: The Ottoman Empire Strikes Back
Part 46: The Ottoman Empire Strikes Back


Sultan Mahmud II of the Ottoman Empire

In many ways the Second Syrian War between the Ottoman Empire and the Khedivate of Egypt was inevitable and came as no surprise to anyone. The peace between them was tense, the political differences were too deep, and the continuance of the status quo was deemed impossible. Either the master should destroy the servant, or the servant should rise and kill the master, regardless of the outcome both sides understood that there could not be two lords of the Ottoman Empire. So, it was that the intervening years between the end of the First War and the start of the Second were spent preparing for the looming rematch between the Egyptians and the Turks. For their part, Sultan Mahmud II and the Ottomans would undertake the most extensive reformation of the Ottoman bureaucracy, economy, and military since the time of Suleiman the Magnificent in a bid to close the great gap between them.

Following the final defeat of the Albanian and Bosnian Rebels in 1834, the Sultan issued a new series of edicts continuing his earlier reforms to an even greater degree. All property belonging to the rebel Beys and Ayans was seized by the crown, while the rebel Eyalets themselves were subject to extensive reorganization and revisions. The Bosnian Eyalet was split in twain with the southern Sanjaks being molded into the new Eyalet of Hercegovina which was in turn bestowed upon the loyal Ali Ridvanoglu Pasha. The remaining northern Sanjaks of the rump Bosnian Eyalet were denuded of their local autonomy and were to be henceforth administered directly by the Capital. The Albanian Eyalets were similarly carved up with the Pashaliks of Scutari and Ioannina dissolved and their constituent Sanjaks were summarily reabsorbed into the Eyalet of Rumelia.

With the Balkans secured, Sultan Mahmud turned East to Anatolia and the Derebeys who would also see their power and privileges reduced by the centralizing policies of the Sultan. Though they had once been great magnates of Anatolia in the earlier days of the Empire, providing the Ottoman armies with bountiful levies, they had grown corrupt and indulgent over the years with power coalescing into their own hands rather than that of the Sultan and the Porte. As the State was no longer dependent upon the Derebeys for manpower thanks to the previous military reforms by Mahmud II in 1826, the raison d’etre for their continued existence had been extinguished. Sultan Mahmud now began the arduous process of clawing back the power, autonomy, and privileges, multiple generations of Sultans had bestowed upon them. It would be a grueling process as many would violently resist rather than peacefully surrender, but little by little the Derebeys were forced to submit to the Porte.

Along with the administrative reforms came a series of budgetary reforms to sure up the flagging Ottoman economy which had been thoroughly exhausted after nearly twenty-five years of constant warfare and unrest. Taxation policies were amended with a series of commissions established to regulate the collection of the Haraç, a capitation tax which had been fraudulently utilized by unscrupulous tax collectors to their own benefit. In addition, the Timar system, the Ziamets, and the practice of tax farming were abolished as was the assessment of vexatious charges by Government officials. In 1839 a new paper banknote Piastre was designed to supplement the incredibly debased silver coin Piastres, while a new gold coin, the Lira was scheduled for production in 1844.

Sultan Mahmud would also abolish vacant and unneeded offices as well as titles that lacked responsibilities or duties. He furloughed ineffective and incompetent government officials and he imprisoned corrupt ministers and governors who abused their powers solely to enrich themselves. The effects of these economic and administrative initiatives were immediate as the revenue of the Ottoman Government by the end of the 1830’s would actually surpass the total government revenue collected at the start of his reign in 1808 despite the significant loss of territory and people over the years. While he eliminated redundant and ineffectual offices, the Sultan also created a new council of Ministers, the Meclis-i Vukela, which aided him in crafting and implementing new reforms and modernization policies. Another initiative Mahmud took to cut away at the rampant corruption in his Empire was to regularly attend the Divan-i-Hümâyûn, the Imperial Council and develop the institution into a more contemporary institution akin to the Ministries of Modern European Governments with the aid of the Grand Vizier.


The Divan-i-Hümâyûn, the Imperial Council

Militarily the organization and armament of the Nizami Corps was fully underway by 1834 and by the end of the decade, its effective strength during peacetime would rise to 80,000 professional soldiers, while during times of war they would be supported by a reserve force some 300,000 strong. All soldiers were organized into proper units modeled after modern European formations with the basis of their armies being the Regiment. Recruitment for the armies was fulfilled primarily through volunteers, but conscription would come into use to meet the numbers required to effectively fill their ranks. When its reorganization was finally complete in mid-1840, the new professional units of the Ottoman Army were christened the Asakir-Mansure-i-Muhammadiye, the Victorious Soldiers of Muhammad or more commonly, the Mansure Army.

Foreign advisors and instructors from Austria, Britain, and Prussia were welcomed by the dozens to impart modern tactics, strategy and techniques into the Ottoman soldiers and their officers. Included among this number of foreign officers was the young Prussian Captain Helmuth von Moltke who both served as an instructor and aide to his Ottoman hosts for much of the 1830’s. Captain Moltke’s records are among the most detailed of Ottoman military policy for this time, and intricately detail the great shift in the institution. To further this endeavor, a formal military academy, the Mekteb-i-Harbiye, was established at Heybeliada near Constantinople to generate a steady supply of quality army officers for the army. There, they would be trained in the art of war, and schooled in engineering, mathematics, science and philosophy among a myriad of other topics. A defined chain of command and General Staff was established with a clear hierarchy between the command personnel, the field officers, and the soldiers in the field.

The Ottoman Navy also received an increased investment from the Sublime Porte thanks to the determined efforts of Sultan Mahmud and his new Kapudan Pasha, Ahmad Fevzi Pasha. Over the course of the 1830’s the Navy would increase from the 44 battered and bruised fighting ships that remained in 1832 after the war with Egypt to 104 warships in 1840, including a batch of 22 newly minted steamships and 7 additional Ships of the Line. Additionally, the flagship Mahmudiye was thoroughly repaired and refitted removing much of the dry rot from the ship that had plagued the vessel during its first sortie in 1831. When its repairs were complete in 1838 it could be said that the Mahmudiye was truly a floating fortress on the seas. As was done with the army, the Bahriye Mektibi Naval School was reestablished at Kasimpasa in 1837 to provide the Ottoman Navy with a cadre of skilled Naval officers trained in the art of modern naval doctrine and tactics.[1] With his military reforms now complete, Sultan Mahmud now wished to test it, fortunately he need not look far as events on the Barbary Coast soon drew his attention.

Though they officially remained territories of the Ottoman Empire in de jure, the Eyalets of Algiers, Tunis, and Tripolitania had become effectively independent states over the course of the 18th century, operating under the sheerest veil of Ottoman suzerainty. While they had done well for themselves under Ottoman rule, the only facet of their relationship that proved of any value to them was the protection the Ottoman Empire provided. In return for a token tribute and supplying the Ottoman military with ships and men during war, the Porte would shield their piracy with all the might of Turkish arms no matter the circumstance or powers involved. For a time, this arrangement worked well for both, but by the end of the 1700’s this began to change as the power of the Ottoman Empire would wane significantly, allowing the Great Powers of Britain and France, along with the lesser powers of Spain, Sweden, Sicily, and even the United States of America to begin challenging the corsairs of Northern Africa. Try as they might, the Pirates of Algiers, Tripoli, and Tunisia were no match for the strength of arms of the ascending European states without the aid of the Ottomans and by 1815 Piracy was officially ended in the Mediterranean, although sporadic raids would continue for several years to come.


British Sailors Fighting Barbary Corsairs

The end of piracy, followed soon after by the growing global abolitionist movements would cut deep into the economies of the North African states, of which Tripolitania suffered the worst. With poverty skyrocketing in the North African state, the people of Tripolitania began lashing out at their aging and increasingly ineffectual leader Yusuf Karamanli Pasha. Yusuf Pasha’s reign had been troubled from the start as he himself had forcibly taken the throne from his own brother Hamet in 1795, and ever since his own kin had been vying to take it away from him. With demonstrations against his rule increasing in frequency and violence the elderly Yusuf Pasha abdicated in favor of his eldest son Ali II Karamanli on the 14th of November 1833 in a bid to preempt any further unrest. Rather than lessen the growing dissent in his state, this act only made it worse as Ali Pasha’s jealous brothers Mehmed and Ahmad denounced the rule of their brother and rose in rebellion several days later, sparking a bloody civil war that would last for several years.[2]

Taking advantage of this opportunity to reassert his authority in the region, Sultan Mahmud threw his support behind the embattled Ali Karamanli in February 1836 and dispatched men and ships to aid him. The defense of Ali Karamanli’s rights were not his true goal, however. Instead, Sultan Mahmud planned the overthrow of the Karamanlis entirely restoring Tripolitania to direct Ottoman rule. With his supposed Ottoman benefactors providing him with thousands of men, Ali Pasha promptly defeated his younger brothers, who were summarily forced to flee into the deserts of Fezzan leaving Ali in total control of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. With the younger Karamanli brothers beaten, the Ottomans abruptly turned on the victorious Ali Pasha, dispatching his remaining loyalists and reestablishing Ottoman authority in the region.

The Ottoman victory in Tripolitania had another effect as the ruler of Tunis, Mustafa ibn Mahmud Bey was successfully cowed into vassalage once more, albeit to a lesser degree than his predecessors. The matter in Tripolitania, however, would not end there as Mehmed and Ahmad Karamanli would soon reconcile their differences and reignite the fight against the Ottomans from the Southern deserts of Fezzan. Despite their earlier loss and humiliation, thousands of Arab and Berber volunteers joined their cause, attracted by the riches and weapons given away by the brothers to their supporters. Though it has remained unproven, many scholars believe that these wares had been provided by the neighboring Egyptians in a bid to disturb Ottoman interests in the region, as the Eyalet’s treasury and munitions depots had been captured along with their brother Ali in Tripoli. Regardless of the identity of their backer, the Karamanli rebellion would successfully hamper Ottoman efforts in the region for years to come. With Tripolitania largely secure, and Tunis cowed once more, the Sublime Porte could finally turn its attention to the last thorn in its side, Egypt.

Not all had been pleasant for the House of Kavalali in the intervening years as a series of uprisings and revolts against their rule took place across the Levant and Arabia. In 1832, just months after the conclusion of the war against the Ottoman Empire, the Saudis of the Najd would revolt for a third and final time in 1832. Though they fought with vigor and fanaticism, they were put down once again, with as much brutality and finality as Ibrahim Pasha could muster. Two years later in 1834, the Druze of Lebanon would riot against the Muhammad Ali’s ally Bashir Shibab of Mount Lebanon for his supposed favoritism of the Maronites in his administration. Ironically, the Maronites would also revolt against Emir Bashir II for his heavy taxation and conscription policies which had been imposed in accordance with the Egyptian demands. As was the case with the Egyptians aiding the Karamanlis in Tripolitania, it strongly believed that these revolts in the Levant and Arabia were spurred on at the insistence of the Ottoman Government who covertly provided the rebels with arms and munitions to fight the Egyptians and their allies.

The most serious rebellion against Egyptian rule in the Levant would take place in the Summer of 1837 when the residents of the cities of Ascalon, Hebron, Jerusalem, Jaffa, and Nablus rose up in rebellions against their Egyptian masters. While the peoples of Palestine were unhappy with the heavy tax policies of the Egyptians, the conscription of fighting age men into the Egyptian armies, and the hated modernization initiatives which disrupted their simple lifestyles, the spark of the revolt was the result of a tribal conflict between rival factions in Egyptian Palestine. The Qasim Clan and the Abu Ghosh Clan had been relatively prominent power brokers in Ottoman Palestine, but under the Egyptians they had been gradually replaced by members of the Abd al-Hadi clan who were staunch allies of the Egyptians. The shunning of tradition and local politics by Ibrahim Pasha and the Egyptian Government was too much to bare for the already oppressed peoples of Palestine who revolted in great numbers on the 29th of April 1837 when the chief of the Qasim Clan was imprisoned by the Egyptian authorities for inciting sedition against them.

Within days, tens of thousands of Arab and Bedouin peasants and magnates rose in revolt catching the Egyptians off guard. Those loyal to Muhammad Ali and his son were ruthlessly butchered by the rebels, who violently beheaded every Egyptian soldier and administrator they could get their hands on. Outside of the Abd al-Hadi Clan and those loyal to Emir Bashir Shibab of Lebanon, the Egyptians had thoroughly alienated every individual, family, and clan in Palestine against them. As was the case with the earlier revolts contact did exist between the rebels and agents of the Sublime Porte who provided money and munitions to the Palestinians. The rebels for their part, made no secret that they received aid from the Sublime Porte, nor did they try to hide their proclamations calling on the Sultan to aid them in their struggle.


The Ascalon Massacre

For Sultan Mahmud II and the Ottomans, these revolts represented a perfect opportunity to retake the provinces of Adana, Aleppo, Damascus, Sidon, and Tripoli which had been lost to Muhammad Ali at the end of the last conflict between them in 1832. To that end, the army was called up and given marching orders, all that remained was the issuing of the final go ahead from the Sultan. Their efforts would ultimately be for not when the Sultan fell ill with a terrible case of tuberculosis in June rendering him incapable for several weeks. Despite his many administrative and bureaucratic reforms over the years, many of the Government’s initiatives still fell under the prerogative of Sultan and as he was indisposed, the opportunity came and went with the Ottomans doing little to aid the dissidents.

Without the aid of the Sultan and the Ottoman army, the Palestinian uprising was methodically and brutally crushed by the Egyptians. Ibrahim Pasha directed his army against the city of Jerusalem where he mercilessly destroyed all who opposed him. The rebels were butchered, their leaders were executed, and their families were deported to Egypt where many would die in poverty and destitution. This process was repeated at Jabal Nablus, Gaza, Galilee, Hebron, and everywhere else that the rebels had dared to rise against him and by the end of the year, the Levant was at peace once more, it would not be the last revolt against Egyptian rule however. Three years later in January 1840, outside the city of Hamah, an altercation between an Egyptian officer and a local merchant would lead to the merchant’s death. Angered by this outcome, the people of Hamah fell upon the Egyptians, slaughtering the lot of them, sparking the next in the long series of revolts against the Egyptians.

When news of this Syrian Uprising reached the Sultan’s palace in Constantinople, Sultan Mahmud immediately issued the orders to ready his forces for war. On the 2nd of March, the commander of the Eastern Ottoman Army Hafiz Osman Pasha received his orders are marched across the border into Adana. The 2nd Syrian War had begun in earnest and unlike the First this war would be much less one sided. Marching from their barracks in Konya to the city of Mersin on the Mediterranean coast, the Ottoman Army, some 100,000-strong made quick progress reducing its defenses and taking the city by storm on the night of the 10th. This victory was soon followed by the recapture of Adana nine days later, Alexandretta would fall in early April, and Gaziantep would follow a month after that. By the start of May, the entirety of Egyptian Adana had fallen and the Ottoman army now stood poised to reenter Syria.

For the Egyptians, this development was incredibly alarming. While they had anticipated Ottoman intervention on the side of the rebels and had strengthened the northern garrisons accordingly, they did not anticipate their defenses along the border collapsing as quickly as they did. Ibrahim Pasha had hoped that his forces in Adana would hold long enough for him to deal with the Syrian rebels before marching north to relieve his men to the North. While he had succeeded at capturing Tartus and Homs from the dissidents and his compatriot Suleiman Pasha had captured al-Salt, Amman and Damascus, Hamah remained obstinately opposed to him, forcing Ibrahim to starve the rebels into submission. Now caught between the Ottoman army to the North and the remaining Rebels to his South, he faced a terrible predicament.


Ibrahim Pasha (1840)

Ibrahim and his force could march north to combat the Ottoman Army which was presently besieging Aleppo, but in doing so he would run the risk of the rebellion reigniting in the region. His force was also much smaller than his foes’, numbering slightly higher than 50,000 and while he had defeated forces many times his own numbers before, he recognized that the Ottomans had improved somewhat since their last encounter. Alternatively, he could hold his ground outside Hamah and destroy the few remaining rebels before the Ottomans could arrive to assist them, but in doing so he would likely condemn his soldiers at Aleppo to death. A third option to retreat and join with Suleiman Bey did exist, but was soon thrown out. Ibrahim would eventually settle on a compromise of the first two plans, he would leave behind a small screening force of 10,000 men to continue the siege of Hamah, while the remainder of his forces would march north to combat the Ottomans.

Curiously, throughout this entire endeavor much of the Egyptian fleet remained unaccounted for as Muhammad Ali had recalled his ships to Alexandria at the start of the war. When news reached his court in late-March that Ottoman forces had crossed into his territory and taken his cities, Muhammad Ali, who was now approaching his 71st year on this Earth, rallied his soldiers and sailors for war and prepared his own fleet to drive back the Ottoman invasion, the Kapudan Pasha Ahmad Fevzi had plans to the contrary however. Two days later, on the 28th of March 1840, 74 ships of the Ottoman Navy appeared on the horizon, their sailors ready for war and their cannons aimed at Alexandria.

Next Time: Egypt in the Maelstrom

[1] The Bahriye Mektibi Naval School had been around since 1773, along with the Naval High School but it had been subject to numerous renovations, relocations, and closures due to financial issues and a particularly bad fire in 1822. Before this point in TTL, or 1838 IOTL, the Bahriye Mektibi Naval School was more akin to a cartography school for prospective navigators rather than an actual naval academy.

[2] I managed to find a source indicating a man by the name of Mehmed Karamanli claimed to be the Ruler of Tripolitania from 1832 to 1835 when the Ottomans reconquered the region in OTL. That said, I didn’t find any information about a second brother named Ahmad, so I picked that name at random because it was a relatively common name in the Karamanli family.
Excellent work mate excellent work as always looks like the Ottomans are coming back with a vengeance Egypt and Greece Better beware
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Honestly, I love your timeline even more. Always felt like a stronger Greece would awesome to have exist along with a jacked-up Turkey.
Excellent work mate excellent work as always looks like the Ottomans are coming back with a vengeance Egypt and Greece Better beware
Honestly, I love your timeline even more. Always felt like a stronger Greece would awesome to have exist along with a jacked-up Turkey.
Thank you both!

Failure is the best teacher and the Ottomans have had more than their fair share of that recently, so its only right that the pendulum swing back in their favor somewhat. Basically, the worse showing by the Ottomans in the Greek War for Independence, the Russo Turkish War, and the First Syrian War have forced them to conduct a more thorough reformation and modernization of their military, economy, and government than in OTL, essentially speeding up some aspects of the Tanzimat reforms by several years. It also helps that they have completely destroyed the Albanian Beys, and the subjugation of the Anatolian Derebeys has started earlier as well giving the Sultan more leverage to enact his reforms.

Also I should point out that Sultan Mahmud II has not died of Tuberculosis in TTL which really made a mess of the Ottoman war effort during the Second Egyptian Ottoman War. In OTL, Mahmud died in July 1839 right after the start of the war in May which directly resulted in the defection of Ahmad Fevzi and the Ottoman Navy to the Egyptians in August 1839, and the increasing of European influence in the Ottoman Empire both economically and militarily.

That all being said, the war has just started and the Ottomans have yet to face Ibrahim Pasha again.
Excellent update! How will Hellas react to the Ottoman-Egyptian war? With the Ottomans busy, could Hellas try to get some territory?
I don’t Think The Greeks can do very much as of the moment Even do they’re stronger than before they Have to worry about about the other powers Such as Britain and France No longer Backing them and if things go to shit everything they fight for Could go up in smoke
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Excellent update! How will Hellas react to the Ottoman-Egyptian war? With the Ottomans busy, could Hellas try to get some territory?
Thank you!

Mccarthypaddy is correct, while some members of the Greek government and Greek society at large will be advocating for military action to take Epirus, Thessaly, Macedonia, etc, they are likely in the minority, or at least the minority in government at this time. Others, King Leopold in particular, will support peace and the status quo as they recognize that the Great Powers will not abide by the Greeks meddling in the Ottomans affairs and would run the risk of the Powers meddling with Greece. That said the Greeks will look on with great interest at the events taking place in the Ottoman Empire.
If I remember correctly the kapudan pasha had already been bribed my Mehmet Aly before sailing out from Constantinople. That his relations with Khusrev pasha were to put it mildly problematic did not help much either. Let's see what happens this time round. Either way Mahmud won't be living for very much longer, he's suffering from both tuberculosis and cirrhosis at this point...
If I remember correctly the kapudan pasha had already been bribed my Mehmet Aly before sailing out from Constantinople. That his relations with Khusrev pasha were to put it mildly problematic did not help much either. Let's see what happens this time round. Either way Mahmud won't be living for very much longer, he's suffering from both tuberculosis and cirrhosis at this point...
Well it has been 17 and a half years since the POD so maybe they reconciled their differences, if not then perhaps Sultan Mahmud surviving a little longer will keep him loyal a little longer, or at least keep the fleet loyal even if he still defects.

You are certainly correct about Sultan Mahmud, as he will likely succumb to illness, old age, a freak riding accident sometime in the next part or at the latest the part after that. From what I gather, his health was deteriorating quite rapidly in OTL despite only being 54 and even if he survived the bout of Tuberculosis that killed him in OTL, I'm under the impression something else would have shortly thereafter and based on everything that has happened in TTL I don't see Mahmud's health being any better, if anything it could be worse.

This update made me start rooting for the Ottomans how dare you
As a Byzantophile this hurt me more than it hurt you!:'(
Dous Greece have any formal allies?
Greece doesn't currently have any formal military alliances but it's independence is guaranteed by Britain, France, and Russia. Now what that exactly means is up for debate as it could range from military intervention in the event the Ottomans attack Greece or it could just be diplomatic or economic assistance while the Greeks do all the fighting, and dying. It is also important to note that it is purely a defensive arrangement in nature, if the Greeks were to attack the Ottomans then the Powers would not aid Greece in that endeavor.

They also have a very good relationship with the Serbs and Romanians, but there isn't any "formal" dialogue between them, let alone formal military alliances as they are curently vassals of the Ottomans.
Browsing Wiki to try to compare with OTL—it sounds like the Ottoman Navy won’t surrender to Egypt immediately TTL and there may not be an equivalent to the Battle of Nezib?

It’s possible that the Ottomans could win this conflict much more decisively than IOTL. I’ll be curious to see what happens!