4.5 million at turn of century means minimum of 13-15 million modern day in the current territories. Add Cyprus , thessolonika, Constantinople and other otl lands and you suddenly have a state which in modern times has perhaps 25-30 million people. A clear regional power , especially if it continues to have good governance.

Think otl Australia for a best case for Greece

I think best case scenario for Greece territory wise would be taking a very limited Anatolian Coast and then doing a population exchange(ie Cappadocian and Pontic Greeks are deported to the Anatolian Coast and Turks in these territories are deported to Turkey)
 
I made some potential boundaries of a maximum plausible expansion based on demographic realities in the 1880s but unfortunately the image is too large, trying to figure that one out
 






I take no credit for the graphics, also something to note is that the graphics are based on the Ottoman Census, so they may be slightly biased, other demographic estimates for the Vilayet of Aydin have the Greek population significantly higher, but the general jist of it is that it'd be very difficult for the Greeks to justify expanding too far inland. I went ahead and took Armenians into account as being point in the Greeks favor rather than the Ottomans, although obviously if a Armenian state exists then the slight advantage the Armenian population gives the Greeks is lost to an extent. More demographically defensensible borders exist, these are just what I would imagine are the absolute maximum Greece could expand to
 
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A potential line, after taking into account economic, strategic and demographic factors, could be the following (presented as a list)

-Menderes Valley up to Buldan
-Uysal Dagi mountain range
- Sindirgi
-Simav river

The main points being: Inclusion of the fertile Menderes valley that was responsible for much of the OTL Ottoman exports, control of the Straits, some defence depth for Smyrna and the Dardanelles. Any asiatic Greece needs to be economically viable and defensible. Otherwise you end up with a strip that cannot be defended or have any significant economic value and would need yearly subsidies.


 
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I think best case scenario for Greece territory wise would be taking a very limited Anatolian Coast and then doing a population exchange(ie Cappadocian and Pontic Greeks are deported to the Anatolian Coast and Turks in these territories are deported to Turkey)
First off even if you didn’t make those maps they’re a fantastic find and very useful. So thanks for sharing.

That said I feel like the Pontic Greeks deserve better than just to be exported to the Anatolian coast after having called Pontus home for 2 Millennia. Wether that be with Pontus being part of Greece proper, as some sort of Russian puppet, or something completely different. I understand that the population exchanges make sense on a basic level and would allow Greece to more easily control more of Western Anatolia, or get it back up and running at a profit after the Greeks inevitably force the Turkish citizens out. It’s just my opinion buts it’s a group I always felt should get better luck in alternative history than it does.
 
That said I feel like the Pontic Greeks deserve better than just to be exported to the Anatolian coast after having called Pontus home for 2 Millennia. Wether that be with Pontus being part of Greece proper, as some sort of Russian puppet, or something completely different. I understand that the population exchanges make sense on a basic level and would allow Greece to more easily control more of Western Anatolia, or get it back up and running at a profit after the Greeks inevitably force the Turkish citizens out. It’s just my opinion buts it’s a group I always felt should get better luck in alternative history than it does.

For sure, the pontic and Cappadocian Greeks were completely shafted irl, I just can't see them feasibly being incorporated into Greece because of the geographic seperation and demographic realities . Best case scenario I think would be parts of Pontus being incorporated into an Armenian state with autonomy and the Pontic Greeks being given the choice between remaining in some sort of Autonomous Pontus within Armenia or going to Greece. I suppose the thing is that you need the Turks completely down and out in order to achieve this as this would be treaty of Trianon level permanent territorial reduction.
 
That said I feel like the Pontic Greeks deserve better than just to be exported to the Anatolian coast after having called Pontus home for 2 Millennia.
that is true the Region of Pontus has had several periods as a pontic kingdom,under the Roman Empire and Later Rhomania and under the Empire of Trapezounta,there was a rennaisance during the 13nth and 14nth century under Komninos dynasty,Honestly for the regions greeks to survive the only way i can see it be done is under a State of their own, if armenia manages to gain much more territory in eastern anatolia that migth make such a state feasible since they would only need to worry for their western border
 
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that is true the Region of Pontus has had several periods a pontic kingdom,under the Roman Empire and Later Rhomania and under the Empire of Trapezounta,there was a rennaisance during the 13nth and 14nth century under Komninos dynasy,Honestly for the regions greeks to survive the only way i can see it be done is under a State of their own, if armenia manages to gain much more territory in eastern anatolia that migth make such a state feasible since they would only need to worry for their western border

The problem would be that an independent Pontus would be damn near impossible to hold as best case scenario East Orthodox Christians in Pontus will only make up 25-30% of the population, which isn't really a tenable position for a newly established nation. So if we want the Pontic Greeks to survive it'd either be through an absurdly overstretched Greece, Russian Occupation, or incorporation into an independent Armenia.
 
That said I feel like the Pontic Greeks deserve better than just to be exported to the Anatolian coast after having called Pontus home for 2 Millennia.
Actually Pontic Greeks are not needed as settlers in Asia Minor. Greece had very high birth rates and a huge demographic potential. Between 1890 and 1914, 1/6th of the whole population migrated to the States and Egypt. Even Ottoman Greeks migrated in great numbers. That was also more or less the case during interwar and after WW2. Nowadays, there are 2,800,000 Greek Americans registered in the Greek Orthodox church in the USA. If you count the atheists/ non religious, or the ones that changed religion throughout the generations, they are likely far more than 3,000,000. Frankly, if the western Anatolian Greeks dont suffer a demographic collapse due to genocide they can fill up the region in a couple of generations, even without a single landless migrant from mainland Greece (and there were many of them).

However, Pontus is far away. The salvation for the 2,500 years old Pontic communities must come either from Russsia or Armenia, with Russia the most plausible solution. Perhaps this is where this timeline is going: Russians have Kars and Ardahan since 1829 instead of 1878 and they seem to be in a very advantageous position now. A Pontic kingdom with a Romanov on the throne is a possibility. Or just an imperial russian province.

@Lascaris , if I remember correctly you had a Pontic Kingdom in your timeline, right?
 
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Umm would Armenia with the borders of Wilsonian Armenia even be majority Armenian?

Depends on how early it is created, if it is created in the 1870s or 1880s before the massacres and genocides of Armenians began then perhaps, if it is after all of the massacres and genocides began then no. Basically in order for a Wilsonian Armenia to be feasible with a Armenian plurality or majority, you either need an earlier independent Armenia or less genocide.
 
However, Pontus is far away. The salvation for the 2,500 years old Pontic communities must come either from Russsia or Armenia, with Russia the most plausible solution. Perhaps this is sere this timeline is going: Rusians have Kars and Ardahan since 1829 instead of 1878 and they seem to be in a very advantageous position now. A Pontic kingdom with a Romanov on the throne is a possibility. Or just an imperial russian province.

I feel like the most feasible state would be Pontus incorporated into Armenia, but like you said, given how the TL is going right now Imperial Russia seems to be the best bet as I'd assume Imperial Russia would incorporate Armenia into the empire rather than create an independent Greater Armenia that includes Pontus.
 
Umm would Armenia with the borders of Wilsonian Armenia even be majority Armenian
Without the Hamidian Massacres and the Genocide, undoubtly yes. Wilsonian Armenia would be as armenian as the Republic of Armenia is today. Being the industrious people that they are, they could become a largish and prosperous state if -and it is a big if- Russia collapses.
 
However, Pontus is far away. The salvation for the 2,500 years old Pontic communities must come either from Russsia or Armenia, with Russia the most plausible solution. Perhaps this is sere this timeline is going: Rusians have Kars and Ardahan since 1829 instead of 1878 and they seem to be in a very advantageous position now. A Pontic kingdom with a Romanov on the throne is a possibility. Or just an imperial russian province.

@Lascaris , if I remember correctly you had a Pontic Kingdom in your timeline, right?

Presumidly you mean Stray Bullet TL ? People still remember it after 20 odd years? I'm flattered. Yes I did. Were I writing it today it, I'd have it directly annexed to Russia probably.
 
Depends on how early it is created, if it is created in the 1870s or 1880s before the massacres and genocides of Armenians began then perhaps, if it is after all of the massacres and genocides began then no. Basically in order for a Wilsonian Armenia to be feasible with a Armenian plurality or majority, you either need an earlier independent Armenia or less genocide.

Or both. Or reduce it to only parts of the 6 eastern vilayets.
 
Or both. Or reduce it to only parts of the 6 eastern vilayets.
The OTL Wilsonian Armenia was basically the Erzurum Vilayet and parts of the Bitlis and Van Vilayets, so less than half the original Six Vilayets.


I would argue that Trabzon could be a major russian objective during this war. The most important reason is that we are in the pre-Suez era: Trabzon was the main trade port between Persia and the West. Camel caravans connected Trabzon and Tabriz, bringing persian silk and carpets to the West and industrial products to Persia. So, before the opening of Suez, Trabzon was an important piece in the Great Game. A secondary reason is the mimeral wealth of the area: Argyroupolis had 37 lead/silver and 6 copper mines. Trabzon itself had vast copper deposits. Even though they have been worked for centuries, Trabzon mines today still make Turkey the 21st biggest copper producer in the world.

 
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