I'm certainly open to having the capital be at Athens as it is certainly an important city as you have mentioned. My rational for foreshadowing its movement to Argos, which can still change, is because of the OTL support for it after the war. As far as I know, which admittedly isn't a lot right now, the Greeks were in favor of having Argos be the capital until King Ludwig of Bavaria forced the movement to Athens.

It will depend on wether OTL Greece expands further North (namely Thessaly and Epirus), something which could happen if War in Greece overlaps with Otoman-Egyptian war.....I can see a stronger Roumeliot party proposing to counterbalance the influence of Moreots.
 
That is a very impressive piece of work Lascaris, and I will say it has given me some ideas. That said, I do have some doubts about Grey including Crete and Samos in a free Greece in OTL considering they weren't included in the 1832 borders, still if anyone could have gotten them in 1830, it would have been Leopold and Kapodistrias. Granted in TTL's case, the situation in Greece is somewhat different compared to OTL so I think some things could go differently this time around.

I'm certainly open to having the capital be at Athens as it is certainly an important city as you have mentioned. My rational for foreshadowing its movement to Argos, which can still change, is because of the OTL support for it after the war. As far as I know, which admittedly isn't a lot right now, the Greeks were in favor of having Argos be the capital until King Ludwig of Bavaria forced the movement to Athens.

Been a while obviously till I had last seen to the details but the reverse seems to have been the case, the reason Crete and Samos were not included in the independent state even though Crete was free outside the cities and Samos completely free, was Wellington getting obstinate about it fearing the Ottomans were getting too much weakened between Navarino and the Russian war, while France and Russia were willing to go along and Grey was way more favourable to the Greeks. By the time Grey was in power Leopold was out of the picture which meant that Greece wouldn't be ruled by the former son in law of the British king... Kapodistrias, practical fellow, was asking for everything south of the Olympus plus Cyprus apparently as a negotiating tactic.

Argos for capital, yes it was suggested and supported by Nauplion newspapers for obvious reasons (as in Nauplion being the port of the new capital). As was Corinth by Alexander Maurokordatos no less and Syros (Hermoupolis had grown to a very busy port during the war). Whether it was likely to overcome the advantages of Athens, to which ATL is added not being severely damaged by the 1827 siege is I think a different matter.
 
Been a while obviously till I had last seen to the details but the reverse seems to have been the case, the reason Crete and Samos were not included in the independent state even though Crete was free outside the cities and Samos completely free, was Wellington getting obstinate about it fearing the Ottomans were getting too much weakened between Navarino and the Russian war, while France and Russia were willing to go along and Grey was way more favourable to the Greeks. By the time Grey was in power Leopold was out of the picture which meant that Greece wouldn't be ruled by the former son in law of the British king... Kapodistrias, practical fellow, was asking for everything south of the Olympus plus Cyprus apparently as a negotiating tactic.
This certainly changes my calculus for the territory of Greece in the Post War treaty. I was originally planning on keeping them part of the Ottoman Empire as vassal states, similar to Serbia, Wallachia, and Moldavia and Samos in OTL, in return for more land in Roumeli, but I'll probably rethink that now.

Argos for capital, yes it was suggested and supported by Nauplion newspapers for obvious reasons (as in Nauplion being the port of the new capital). As was Corinth by Alexander Maurokordatos no less and Syros (Hermoupolis had grown to a very busy port during the war). Whether it was likely to overcome the advantages of Athens, to which ATL is added not being severely damaged by the 1827 siege is I think a different matter.
It will depend on wether OTL Greece expands further North (namely Thessaly and Epirus), something which could happen if War in Greece overlaps with Otoman-Egyptian war.....I can see a stronger Roumeliot party proposing to counterbalance the influence of Moreots.
I will definitely reconsider making Athens the capital then, but it will probably depend on the state of Greece post war.
 
If in this timeline, Greece can achieve its modern day borders that it has in our timeline, I think Thessalonika would make a good Capitol, it has a sizable population, it's a center of trade and the nation could use the old administrative buildings left by the ottomans while Athens is built up to service the government.
 
If in this timeline, Greece can achieve its modern day borders that it has in our timeline, I think Thessalonika would make a good Capitol, it has a sizable population, it's a center of trade and the nation could use the old administrative buildings left by the ottomans while Athens is built up to service the government.t
But if Greece doesn't achieve those borders then Argos seems like a good choice, it seems to lack any large building to house the government, but at least it's strategically loacated in a fertile valley at the end of a defendable bay and has large amounts of open land on which public buildings could be built easily, unlike Athens where most of the open land is owned by the church and which is more of modest town then a city.
 
Been a while obviously till I had last seen to the details but the reverse seems to have been the case, the reason Crete and Samos were not included in the independent state even though Crete was free outside the cities and Samos completely free, was Wellington getting obstinate about it fearing the Ottomans were getting too much weakened between Navarino and the Russian war, while France and Russia were willing to go along and Grey was way more favourable to the Greeks. By the time Grey was in power Leopold was out of the picture which meant that Greece wouldn't be ruled by the former son in law of the British king... Kapodistrias, practical fellow, was asking for everything south of the Olympus plus Cyprus apparently as a negotiating tactic.

Argos for capital, yes it was suggested and supported by Nauplion newspapers for obvious reasons (as in Nauplion being the port of the new capital). As was Corinth by Alexander Maurokordatos no less and Syros (Hermoupolis had grown to a very busy port during the war). Whether it was likely to overcome the advantages of Athens, to which ATL is added not being severely damaged by the 1827 siege is I think a different matter.

This certainly changes my calculus for the territory of Greece in the Post War treaty. I was originally planning on keeping them part of the Ottoman Empire as vassal states, similar to Serbia, Wallachia, and Moldavia and Samos in OTL, in return for more land in Roumeli, but I'll probably rethink that now.



I will definitely reconsider making Athens the capital then, but it will probably depend on the state of Greece post war.


Well, regarding Crete there are plenty of options: for exemple, if TTL Oriental Crisis happens around the same time than OTL, a clever enough Greek leadership would choose the right side and support Western intervention aganst Egypt, gaining the island in reward........ which in turn would boost further the popularity and streghten the hold on power of the people in charge.
 
If in this timeline, Greece can achieve its modern day borders that it has in our timeline, I think Thessalonika would make a good Capitol, it has a sizable population, it's a center of trade and the nation could use the old administrative buildings left by the ottomans while Athens is built up to service the government.
But if Greece doesn't achieve those borders then Argos seems like a good choice, it seems to lack any large building to house the government, but at least it's strategically loacated in a fertile valley at the end of a defendable bay and has large amounts of open land on which public buildings could be built easily, unlike Athens where most of the open land is owned by the church and which is more of modest town then a city.
Even with the benefit of not having the civil wars, better management of the English loans, and a worse Ottoman performance in the war, if that was even possible, I don't see Greece as capable of taking all the land it currently has in 2017, in 1830. Even if they did somehow manage it occupy all that territory, there is no way the Great Powers allow them to keep all of it unfortunately. So, either the Ottomans would get the land back, or the Powers would view them as too weak to stand on their own and carve them up between themselves, taking much of the spoils for themselves while they are at it. That said, Thessaloniki is a wonderful location for a more northern oriented Greece for all the reasons you have mentioned. Even under the Ottomans it was one of the largest cities in the Empire. Unfortunately, outside of some small pockets of resistance in the mountains, the whole North of Greece is under Ottoman control, so whatever Greece that emerges from the War of Independence will in all likelihood comprise Southern and parts of Central Greece, as well as many of the islands.

Argos as the capital of Greece was something I was certainly considering for those exact reasons along with it being somewhat unique and different. I'll probably address the matter more in detail once the war is over.

Well, regarding Crete there are plenty of options: for exemple, if TTL Oriental Crisis happens around the same time than OTL, a clever enough Greek leadership would choose the right side and support Western intervention aganst Egypt, gaining the island in reward........ which in turn would boost further the popularity and streghten the hold on power of the people in charge.
That is certainly a good possibility and one that I might explore in the future. I will say that the next part, which I will hopefully have up later today or tomorrow at the latest, will focus heavily on the "unique" relationship between Egypt and the Ottomans.
 
I hope that ITTL, the Corinth Canal isn't a complete waste. A richer, more competent administration could most definitely make a canal wide and deep enough to actually sail ships through.
 
I hope that ITTL, the Corinth Canal isn't a complete waste. A richer, more competent administration could most definitely make a canal wide and deep enough to actually sail ships through.
Kapodistrias was apparently quite interested in constructing the Corinth Canal in 1830, but he eventually had to abandon it due to the high costs, which were estimated to be about 40 Million Francs, and he died before he could return to the idea at a later date. While it obviously wouldn't have the amount of shipping as the Panama Canal or Suez Canal, if it was wider and deeper the Corinth Canal would certainly benefit Greek commercial and military shipping by a significant amount. It was originally expected to achieve about 4 million tons of freight traffic every year, but it only ever managed 1.5 million tons in 1913, it also ran over budget and required numerous repairs and modifications.
 
Kapodistrias was apparently quite interested in constructing the Corinth Canal in 1830, but he eventually had to abandon it due to the high costs, which were estimated to be about 40 Million Francs, and he died before he could return to the idea at a later date. While it obviously wouldn't have the amount of shipping as the Panama Canal or Suez Canal, if it was wider and deeper the Corinth Canal would certainly benefit Greek commercial and military shipping by a significant amount. It was originally expected to achieve about 4 million tons of freight traffic every year, but it only ever managed 1.5 million tons in 1913, it also ran over budget and required numerous repairs and modifications.

But could it be made wider? The area is quite high and made of fragile rock, some problems are bound to still be there...
 
But could it be made wider? The area is quite high and made of fragile rock, some problems are bound to still be there...
It probably could've been wider, but it would be so expensive to do so that it probably wouldn't be worth it in the end, regardless of the traffic it would generate. At the very least locks or a more gradual inclination for the walls could help immensely, to reduce the high winds and tidal problems in the canal, but those too would be very expensive as well.

Edit: After some more research the canal is currently about 17.6 meters wide (56 feet) and only 7.3 meters deep (24 feet). I'm not sure how viable it would be to widen or deepen it but at its current specs it is terribly impractical for anything more than tourism, although it might have been useful during the Age of Sail if the wind wasn't such an issue in the Canal.
 
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Part 24: The Prince of Egypt
Part 24: The Prince of Egypt

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Muhammad Ali, Wali of Egypt

The events in Greece were of great interest to the Wali of Egypt, Muhammad Ali and by the beginning of Summer of 1826, the war seemed as good as won for the Porte. The fall of Missolonghi in late April had done little to improve his opinion of the flagging Ottoman military tradition, however, as the city had been won, not by Turkish arms, but by Egyptian blood. Progress towards it capitulation was made only after Ibrahim had arrived, were it not for his son’s efforts, the city may very well still be in Greek hands. This opinion was reinforced with the slow progress the Ottomans had achieved in Southern Rumelia over the past year. Ibrahim also met with problems in the Morea, surprisingly, as the Maniots and Moreots continued to resist him to an alarming degree. Unlike the Cretans and Cypriots, the Moreots resisted Ibrahim to the last man, woman, child if necessary.

It was becoming increasingly clear that pacifying the Morea would take many months, maybe even years to accomplish and the price in blood needed to do so would be massive. The value of the Morea was also steadily declining as Ibrahim continued to sack and pillage its settlements to cow the Greeks into submission, efforts which were clearly working against him. Nearly the entirety of Elis, Messenia, and much of Achaea had been depopulated causing the local economy in the region to collapse, villages had been burnt, thousands had been killed, and thousands more had been enslaved, yet the Greeks continued to resist him. The Fall campaign in the Mani had proven as much. To prevent the further loss of lives and resources, Muhammad Ali messaged his son to loiter about along the Morean littoral and, so long as it could be avoided, Ibrahim was to avoid any pitched engagements with the Greeks until he permitted him to do so. Muhammad Ali was no coward and he was certainly not above sending men to their deaths by the thousands if need be to achieve his aspirations, but it was becoming increasingly evident that victory for the Ottomans was no longer the inevitability that it once was.

While at first, the withdrawal of the Egyptian fleet was merely a ploy meant to coerce Sultan Mahmud II into making more concessions to him for his continued service. Muhammad Ali was clearly growing tired with the war in Greece, a war which was becoming more of an Egyptian war than an Ottoman war with every passing day. If he was to continue to “faithfully” serve his liege lord, then he demanded further privileges for himself and his sons, and that meant more power and more territory. Negotiations with the Sultan proved difficult, as the Summer campaigning season had been relatively successful thus far, before the setbacks of the Fall, Muhammad Ali was deprived of much of his bargaining power. The Sultan had also begun to enact his administrative and military reforms, chief among them was the effort to curtail the Janissaries.

The fall of Missolonghi had provided Sultan Mahmud with enough political capital to forge an unlikely alliance between the modernizers and the clergy to finally do away with the corrupt and indulgent Janissaries.[1] Over the years, Mahmud had been steadily replacing the more obstinate commanders of the Janissaries with likeminded individuals who supported his reforms. Though it would take many years, by the Summer of 1826 he had finally built up enough good will and support to launch his long-awaited plan to dissolve the Janissaries. Each of the 50 Janissary regiments were to provide 150 men for a new, modern fighting force along the lines of the Egyptian soldiers, the Sekban-i Cedit. Coinciding with the beginning of the siege of Nafpaktos, Mahmud paraded his new troops through the capital of Constantinople alongside the Sipahis, the longtime rivals of the Janissaries. The entire production was meant to humiliate the Janissaries, and as expected it achieved its desired result.

The Janissaries mutinied, on the 10th of July as they began their revolt with the customary flipping of their cooking pots, renouncing the Sultans protection and authority. Within moments of their declaration, the Janissaries marched on Topkapi Palace only to be attacked by the Sekban-i Cedit, the Sipahis, and the people of Constantinople who had grown tired of the Janissaries indulgences and rallied by the banner of the Prophet which the Sultan had unveiled. The Janissaries were quickly forced to flee, with many barricading themselves in their barracks and the rest scattering across the Rumelia. Those that remained in Constantinople were soon massacred by the angry mob when the gates to their barracks were blown open by cannon fire and the buildings were set ablaze. Over 6,000 Janissaries were killed in the fighting, along with several hundred soldiers loyal to the Sultan and an untold number of civilians. The surviving Janissaries from the Capital were later taken to Thessaloniki where they were put to death by decapitation.[2] With this Sword of Damocles finally destroyed, Mahmud finally began his long-awaited reforms and delayed responding to Muhammad Ali’s demands, forcing the Khedive of Egypt to look elsewhere for his spoils. Surprisingly, the source of his prospective bounty would come from an unlikely source.

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The Red Tower of Thessaloniki, Site of the Janissary Leaders’ Executions

The cooling relations between the Ottoman Sultan and the Egyptian Wali was seen by the British and the Russians as a growing break between the two, one which could benefit the Greeks immensely. Stratford Canning, cousin of British Foreign Minister George Canning, was an especially vocal advocate of turning Egypt against Turkey to the benefit of Greece, and petitioned his cousin to see whether this fracture would bear fruit or not. To that end, the British government instructed their consul in Alexandria to meet with Muhammad Ali and ascertain his intentions. It quickly became apparent to the British Consul Henry Salt, that Muhammad Ali was seeking an exit from the war in Greece. The Greeks had proven themselves to be more difficult to subdue than anticipated and the intransigence of the Ottomans had proven more aggravating than the Greeks. If the Powers that be, permitted unto the Wali of Egypt the right to aggrandize himself towards Arabia, he would quit the war with the Greeks at once.

The terms were relayed to London at once, arriving in the Fall of 1826. Unfortunately, this coincided with a civil war in Portugal between the Liberals and the Miguelites over the succession of King Joao IV.[3] In November, the Spanish and French in alignment with the Miguelites began pressing towards the Portuguese border sparking a crisis in Parliament. As Portugal was a longtime and faithful ally of Britain, matters on the Iberian Peninsula took precedence over Egypt and Greece, and the matter of Muhammad Ali’s peace terms were shelved. Canning, in a show of force dispatched a regiment of redcoats to Lisbon to aid the Portuguese loyalists in the defense of their country, their very presence, however, had the added effect of discouraging France and Spain from invading Portugal directly. Without outside support, the Liberals managed to fend off the now isolated Miguelites by themselves and though the conflict would continue for several more years, the British had seen to the Liberal’s victory without having to fire a single shot.

When the topic of Egypt was brought up again in January 1827, the British found that the situation in the Orient had continued to change in their absence. Muhammad Ali, lacking a definitive response from the British, had reopened negotiations with the Sultan regarding his continued contribution to the war. In the process, he revealed his dialogue with the British as a means of leverage, forcing his liege to make additional concessions to him. His cause was aided by the fact that the Sultan’s position had also weakened since the Summer. The setbacks of his armies at Nafpaktos, Krioneri, Gravia, and Atalanti, combined with the slew of victories at sea by the Greeks in the absence of the Egyptian fleet, had shown Sultan Mahmud II how weak his hand really was. Combined with the prospect of intervention by the powers, the Sultan had no choice but to accept Muhammad Ali’s demands. In return for reconciling with his liege, Muhammad Ali was named Serasker of the Ottoman Armies in Rumelia and the Morea, and Khosref Pasha, the Kapudan Pasha of the Ottoman Navy was to be replaced with a candidate of the Muhammad Ali’s choosing. Though the terms were not yet settled by the time a new delegation under Stratford Canning arrived in Alexandria; it was clear that if the British were to reopen the chasm between the Egyptians and the Ottomans, Canning would require more concessions to purchase the Wali’s peace.

Negotiations between the two sides was tense as Muhammad Ali’s terms were difficult to accept as his price for peace had increased dramatically. In return for his neutrality in the war between the Ottoman Empire and the Greeks, Muhammad Ali wanted recognition for his conquests of Crete, Cyprus, and the Sudan in addition to a free hand in Arabia as he had requested the previous Summer. He also wanted to be recognized as Khedive of Egypt, rather than Wali, providing legitimacy to his son’s future rule in Egypt. Still this was not enough. If the powers wanted his neutrality, he wanted something more appetizing, something more important, he wanted Syria and not just the Eyalet of Damascus, he wanted all of Syria from Gaza to Alexandretta.[4]


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Muhammad Ali meets with Canning and the British Delegation​

The concession of the Sudan was of little consequence to the Powers as it was a relative backwater, a land with little strategic or economic value, and among other things it was already under his control. Arabia was somewhat more challenging to accept given the location of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina in the Hejaz, but as with the Sudan, it was already under Muhammad Ali’s tentative occupation and forcing him to vacate the region would likely take a war. As a result, this too was agreed upon with the treaty between them formalizing the facts on the ground. The other terms were more difficult to accept. Crete and Cyprus were problematic as they would almost certainly create tension between the Greeks and the Egyptians in the future. Whether that tension would lead to war was unknown, but the islands had also been bestowed upon the Wali by the Ottoman Sultan and under the dominance of Muhammad Ali since 1824 and 1823 respectively. Syria was too much to accept however, and ultimately the talks stalled at the end of March. Fortunately, events in Greece continued to conspire to bring the talks to a successful end.

Despite his posturing, Muhammad Ali’s situation in Greece wasn’t much better than that of Sultan Mahmud II. Ibrahim, had himself nearly been captured or killed at Gytheio, and his army was in tatters, with no more than 6,200 men from Patras to Methoni. The Greeks for their part had held up well, holding the Egyptians to a thin swath of land along the West coast of the Morea. It had also helped that Ibrahim’s initiatives to savage the Moreots had failed miserably, resulting in a deluge of volunteers and partisans ready to oppose him at every turn. While Muhammad Ali had finally released his fleet to aid his son, the quantity of reinforcements needed to turn around the war in Greece would take months to assemble, months that Ibrahim did not have.

In April, Panos Kolokotronis led 700 men on raid against the city of Pyrgos while Ibrahim was away in the South chasing another band of Moreots under Yannis Makriyannis. Surprisingly, the town was lightly defended by some 400 Egyptian and Algerian soldiers who, despite their bravery, quickly fell to the surprise attack of Panos and the Greeks. The citadel would continue to hold out for several more days, but by the time Ibrahim learned of these events and moved to aid them on the 17th, it was too late. Despite his own fearsome reputation and skill, Ibrahim could not be everywhere at once, allowing the Greeks to continuously pick his men off while he was elsewhere. Ibrahim himself would also fall into a trap set by the Greeks near Pyrgos as he moved to retake the city. As he crossed the Alfios River on the 20th, Ibrahim was ambushed by Moreots under Panos and his brothers in conjuncture with auxiliaries from the Greek Government. Though he succeeded in crossing the river and driving off the Kolokotroneoi from the field, it was a pyrrhic victory for Ibrahim as over 900 of his men lay dead or dying after the battle with hundreds more wounded.

Despite rushing 2,900 reinforcements to Greece at the end of May, it was too little too late for Ibrahim. The Greeks, despite nearing their own breaking point, sensed blood in the water and pushed as hard as they could against the Egyptians. Steadily, the Egyptian position was pushed back until only several castles and towns along the coast remained under Ibrahim’s control. His strongest force being no more than 3,400 men in a pocket in littoral Messenia, with another 1,200 in a pocket along the coast from Kyparissia to Zacharo, and more than 2,200 in the area from Gastouni to the village of Dymi in the North. It was clear to all that Ibrahim’s position in Greece had finally collapsed.

To save his son from the retribution of the Greeks, Muhammad Ali called out to the British and Russian delegates and agreed to latest terms with little complaint on the 10th of June. In return for the confirmation of his status as Khedive of Upper and Lower Egypt as well as recognition of his gains in the Sudan and granting him a free hand in the Hejaz, Muhammad Ali, Ibrahim Pasha, and their respective military forces operating in Greece would be withdrawn immediately, including the islands of Crete and Cyprus. Details of the Treaty of Alexandria were dispatched to Constantinople and Nafplion respectively, causing Sultan Mahmud to go blue in the face with rage at the traitorous Egyptians. The reaction in Greece was little better surprisingly. Though they were grateful for the swift exit of the Egyptians from the war, the manner in which it had been brought about was incensing as it denied the Moreots their chance at vengeance, but more than that, it ended the conflict in the Morea with a farce.

An unofficial agreement written into the treaty of Alexandria was a clause which stipulated Ibrahim would only surrender his positions willingly to the Powers and not to the Greeks. The relay of this term to the Greeks was problematic, and was intentionally delayed by the Nafplion Government, resulting in several skirmishes over the course of the Fall of 1827 until the French landed forces in the Morea in November. By the beginning of 1828, Ibrahim and all his men had fully withdrawn from Greece. The transfer of territory proved more difficult in the islands, however. Ottoman forces had managed to quickly reoccupy Cyprus before it could rebel once more and they managed to secure the coastal cities of Agios Nikolaos, Heraklion, and Sitia in the eastern half of Crete before the local Cretans could liberate them. Their attempts to reoccupy Chania and Rethymno were crushed, however, by the Greek navy under Lord Cochrane and Admiral Miaoulis who sank or sent running the Ottoman fleet dispatched to retake Crete. With the Ottoman navy dealt with, the Greeks quickly managed to reinforce the Cretans establishing a siege of the few remaining Ottoman strongholds on the island.

One last point of debate was the unresolved matter of Syria. It had been intentionally left out of the treaty, yet something was lost in translation regarding the reasoning behind this decision. The British, French, and Russian delegations had believed the term was over and done with, never to be addressed again. Muhammad Ali and his advisors, however, were under the impression that the door remained open on the issue, one that would be revisited at a later more appropriate date. One thing was certain Muhammad Ali had traded an ongoing conflict with the Greeks for a future conflict with the Ottomans.

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Greece on the 10th of June 1827
Purple – Greece
Green – Ottoman Empire
Pink – The United States of the Ionian Islands​

Next Time: The Intervention of the Powers


[1] Mahmud managed to win the support of the Clergy by increasing their privileges, constructing new mosques, refurbishing old mosques, etc. In a sense, he had traded the Janissaries for the Clergy, but in doing so he had deprived them of their traditional ally and military force.

[2] Not all Janissaries were killed in the Auspicious Incident. Most were simply reassigned to new units, some were imprisoned or exiled, and others managed to escape to Rumelia where they went into hiding for many years. Only the Captains that opposed Mahmud II’s reforms and the mutinying Janissaries in Constantinople were executed.

[3] The death of King Joao in March 1826 resulted in a succession crisis. His eldest son Pedro of Brazil was technically next in line for the Portuguese Throne, but neither the Brazilians nor the Portuguese wanted a dual monarchy. To appease both countries, Pedro abdicated the crown of Portugal in favor of his daughter Maria who was only 7 at the time. His brother Miguel argued that his brother had renounced his claims, and the claims of his children, to the throne of Portugal and that he was the rightful King. As a result, war broke out between their supporters resulting in the Liberal Wars.

[4] Syria in this sense refers to the levant, basically the Mediterranean coast running from Egypt to Turkey. This includes the Eyalet of Damascus, the Eyalet of Tripoli, the Eyalet of Sidon, and the Eyalet of Aleppo.
 
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This looks like a turning point if I've ever seen one! How much longer can the Ottomans afford to keep this up?
Not much longer to be honest. Muhammad Ali either directly or indirectly controlled a quarter of the Ottoman Empire making him by far the strongest magnate in the Ottoman Empire besides arguably the Ottoman Sultan himself. He also generally provided the best soldiers and best commanders for the Ottomans during the entire war, although with Sultan Mahmud's reforms starting to take effect this will balance out over time. They will also be dealing with the arrival of the British, French, and Russians very soon in the Fall of 1827. Although they will technically be acting as a small peace keeping force initially, as was the case in OTL, you can be sure that blows will be exchanged between parties on both sides resulting in a bigger commitment of resources to force peace upon the region. Even without the looming intervention of the Great Powers, the Ottomans cannot fight forever as their economy is struggling and their minorities are growing restless.

That said, the Ottomans still have a significant advantage in numbers and resources over the Greeks and while the exit of the Egyptians from the war does free up a lot of men and resources for the Greeks to use elsewhere, like Southern Rumelia or the Islands, it isn't as much as you would believe. In most cases, the men fighting against Ibrahim in the Peloponnese were militia or volunteers fighting for their homes, their livelihoods, and their families with only a small percentage serving as regular soldiers under the employ of the Greek Government. These are not men who will travel halfway across Greece to fight the Ottomans and while they are generally supportive of a Greater Greek identity, they are relatively insular in their communities, tribes, and clans.

The Greek economy is also in shambles, as large swaths of the Morea are a barren wasteland, ill suited for agriculture, and trade is almost impossible in a wartime situation as well. The English loans have almost completely been used by the Summer of 1827 as well, meaning they can't really afford luxuries like a large standing army or navy, relatively speaking of course. At most, the Greeks can afford one or two more campaigns of any scale. The figurative and literal last push by both sides is coming soon.
 
Not much longer to be honest. Muhammad Ali either directly or indirectly controlled a quarter of the Ottoman Empire making him by far the strongest magnate in the Ottoman Empire besides arguably the Ottoman Sultan himself. He also generally provided the best soldiers and best commanders for the Ottomans during the entire war, although with Sultan Mahmud's reforms starting to take effect this will balance out over time. They will also be dealing with the arrival of the British, French, and Russians very soon in the Fall of 1827. Although they will technically be acting as a small peace keeping force initially, as was the case in OTL, you can be sure that blows will be exchanged between parties on both sides resulting in a bigger commitment of resources to force peace upon the region. Even without the looming intervention of the Great Powers, the Ottomans cannot fight forever as their economy is struggling and their minorities are growing restless.

That said, the Ottomans still have a significant advantage in numbers and resources over the Greeks and while the exit of the Egyptians from the war does free up a lot of men and resources for the Greeks to use elsewhere, like Southern Rumelia or the Islands, it isn't as much as you would believe. In most cases, the men fighting against Ibrahim in the Peloponnese were militia or volunteers fighting for their homes, their livelihoods, and their families with only a small percentage serving as regular soldiers under the employ of the Greek Government. These are not men who will travel halfway across Greece to fight the Ottomans and while they are generally supportive of a Greater Greek identity, they are relatively insular in their communities, tribes, and clans.

The Greek economy is also in shambles, as large swaths of the Morea are a barren wasteland, ill suited for agriculture, and trade is almost impossible in a wartime situation as well. The English loans have almost completely been used by the Summer of 1827 as well, meaning they can't really afford luxuries like a large standing army or navy, relatively speaking of course. At most, the Greeks can afford one or two more campaigns of any scale. The figurative and literal last push by both sides is coming soon.
I am continually impressed with how well though out this timeline is. Awesome work!
 
Not much longer to be honest. Muhammad Ali either directly or indirectly controlled a quarter of the Ottoman Empire making him by far the strongest magnate in the Ottoman Empire besides arguably the Ottoman Sultan himself. He also generally provided the best soldiers and best commanders for the Ottomans during the entire war, although with Sultan Mahmud's reforms starting to take effect this will balance out over time. They will also be dealing with the arrival of the British, French, and Russians very soon in the Fall of 1827. Although they will technically be acting as a small peace keeping force initially, as was the case in OTL, you can be sure that blows will be exchanged between parties on both sides resulting in a bigger commitment of resources to force peace upon the region. Even without the looming intervention of the Great Powers, the Ottomans cannot fight forever as their economy is struggling and their minorities are growing restless.
Plus, well.... After awhile, I reckon he can just say the European areas were always too expensive to police anyway, just write 'em off. Not good for prestige yeah, but....
 
An unofficial agreement written into the treaty of Alexandria was a clause which stipulated Ibrahim would only surrender his positions willingly to the Powers and not to the Greeks. The relay of this term to the Greeks was problematic, and was intentionally delayed by the Nafplion Government, resulting in several skirmishes over the course of the Fall of 1827 until the French landed forces in the Morea in November. By the beginning of 1828, Ibrahim and all his men had fully withdrawn from Greece. The transfer of territory proved more difficult in the islands, however. Ottoman forces had managed to quickly reoccupy Cyprus before it could rebel once more, and they managed to secure the Eastern half of Crete before the Greeks landed their own forces on the island in January 1828.

Speaking of Crete the OTL course of events was Cretan rebels landing and capturing the fort of Grambousa in August 1825 and the fort becoming the centre of raids and constant guerilla warfare over the next two years. By early 1828 the revolt was in full swing again, in March an expeditionary force under Michael Dalianis landed but was defeated in Frangokastelo in May by Mustapha Naili pasha only for him to be ambushed in turn by the rebels with heavy losses and by the end of the summer the Greeks controlled the whole island aside from the three fortified cities and Seteia.

ATL if Muhammed goes and orders Mustapha pasha to take his troops and go I short of doubt the Ottomans will be in position to grab control of half the island with the local troops left behind. Particularly since Miaoulis (and Cochrane) will be probably able to intercept any Ottoman fleet trying to reinforce the forts. I'd be actually wondering whether the cities themselves can hold out under the circumstances.

Oh Dalianis by the way... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatzimichalis_Dalianis
 
That said, the Ottomans still have a significant advantage in numbers and resources over the Greeks and while the exit of the Egyptians from the war does free up a lot of men and resources for the Greeks to use elsewhere, like Southern Rumelia or the Islands, it isn't as much as you would believe. In most cases, the men fighting against Ibrahim in the Peloponnese were militia or volunteers fighting for their homes, their livelihoods, and their families with only a small percentage serving as regular soldiers under the employ of the Greek Government. These are not men who will travel halfway across Greece to fight the Ottomans and while they are generally supportive of a Greater Greek identity, they are relatively insular in their communities, tribes, and clans.

The Greek economy is also in shambles, as large swaths of the Morea are a barren wasteland, ill suited for agriculture, and trade is almost impossible in a wartime situation as well. The English loans have almost completely been used by the Summer of 1827 as well, meaning they can't really afford luxuries like a large standing army or navy, relatively speaking of course. At most, the Greeks can afford one or two more campaigns of any scale. The figurative and literal last push by both sides is coming soon.

I think the Athens campaign in 1827 and the army under Kapodistrias may be offering a reasonable baseline here. The Greek army at Piraeus was roughly 11,000 with IMS about 1,000 coming from the Peloponnese where fighting was ongoing against Ibrahim. Kapodistrias come 1828-29 had under arms about 3,500 regular European style troops and 9000 light troops. So something like 15,000 on campaign ATL looks reasonable I think.
 
Speaking of Crete the OTL course of events was Cretan rebels landing and capturing the fort of Grambousa in August 1825 and the fort becoming the centre of raids and constant guerilla warfare over the next two years. By early 1828 the revolt was in full swing again, in March an expeditionary force under Michael Dalianis landed but was defeated in Frangokastelo in May by Mustapha Naili pasha only for him to be ambushed in turn by the rebels with heavy losses and by the end of the summer the Greeks controlled the whole island aside from the three fortified cities and Seteia.

ATL if Muhammed goes and orders Mustapha pasha to take his troops and go I short of doubt the Ottomans will be in position to grab control of half the island with the local troops left behind. Particularly since Miaoulis (and Cochrane) will be probably able to intercept any Ottoman fleet trying to reinforce the forts. I'd be actually wondering whether the cities themselves can hold out under the circumstances.

Oh Dalianis by the way... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatzimichalis_Dalianis
That is certainly a good point. Without the Egyptians, the Greeks would most likely have naval superiority over much of the Aegean, at the very least the Southern Aegean would be safely in Greek hands. That said, it wouldn't be too problematic for the Ottomans to rush some men to Sitia and Agios Nikolaos on the Eastern end of the island as the Egyptians are leaving. I'll probably revise that to reflect the countryside being under Greek control with only a handful of cities switching from Egyptian control to Ottoman control.

I think the Athens campaign in 1827 and the army under Kapodistrias may be offering a reasonable baseline here. The Greek army at Piraeus was roughly 11,000 with IMS about 1,000 coming from the Peloponnese where fighting was ongoing against Ibrahim. Kapodistrias come 1828-29 had under arms about 3,500 regular European style troops and 9000 light troops. So something like 15,000 on campaign ATL looks reasonable I think.
It probably would have helped if I looked at some of my sources before writing that response.:oops: Using the OTL Greek numbers at Athens in 1827 as a template, that 15,000 would probably be about right for early 1828 given Kapodistrias would have an extra year to work with ITTL. That said, they probably wouldn't all be available for an offensive into Ottoman held Greece. Still that is a lot better than the situation I was thinking of beforehand.
 
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