Postbellum: Confederate Victory

This scenario will look at a possible timeline where the Confederate States are successful in suceeding from the Union. The war in the Mississippi theater would largely remain the same. The Union would succeed in capturing major cities like New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Memphis, Nashville, and Little Rock like they did in our timeline. The key difference in the war would come in the Atlantic theater where General Lee is successful in taking Philidelphia, and at the Battle of Gettysburg. As a consequence of the South's military victories the Union capital would be temporarily moved to New York. Abraham Lincoln would become incredibly unpopular as the war drug on. In this timeline the Civil War could drag on an extra 2 years until 1867. The War will ultimately end in a stalemate, the CS interprets the outcome as a victory while the US considers the war ultimately unfinished refusing to recognize the legitimacy of the Confederate States. The South would be smaller than it was at the start of the war though. By 1867 the US Army controls most of Tennessee, Arkansas, the Indian Territory (Oklahoma), as well as the Mississippi River Delta. The prior three are readmitted into the union while a rump state called the Free State of Liousiana is created out of the later. Part of the South's success in the war is due largely to material support from the UK and France. The establishment of a majority French speaking rump state is a tactical attempt to cause a rift between France and the CS going forward. Despite being an ally of the US and being called the Free State of Louisiana slavery would still be practiced there. The US would seeing having access to the mouth of the Mississippi River and a presence in the Confederacy's backyard being their primary concern. The US would also not interfere with slavery in Tennesse or Arkansas as it did with other border states letting those states outlawing the practice themselves.


(Political map of north America 1912)

Slavery would ultimately weaken the South economically, socially and diplomatically though. From the conclusion of the Civil War the issue of slavery would create an increasing rift between the UK and the Confederacy. Especially with the CS wanting to industrialize in order to remain in parity with the US, agriculture based slavery would increasingly become less and less economically viable. The Confederacy's solution to this would be to Nationalize the institution of slavery meaning the state would buy up slaves giving the state a monopoly on slave labor. Slaves would be pulled off the plantations and forced to work in industrializing cities to make up for a shortage of factory workers. This would ultimately concentrate slaves in urban areas. Just as the United States had it's own Eugenics movement in our own timeline the South would take it to another level seeing sterilization as a tool to control the Afro-Confederate(?) population.

Much of European history would remain intact. Russia would still sell Alaska to the US out of fear that the UK might just take it. However, the Spanish-American War never occurs in this timeline. Cuba & Puerto Rico are seen as desirable to the CS however they don't want the US to take advantage of a stretched thin Confederacy at war with Spain. The development of WWI is what inevitably brings the US and the CS back into conflict. The Confederacy's relationship with Britain and France have become strained within the last 40 years while both nations have strengthened relations with the United States. The confederacy is weary of Russia, a good number of polish exiles of the January Uprising immigrated to the Confederacy and their bias against Russia influences public opinion though the press. The Confederacy seeing the liberalization writing on the wall throw their lot in with the Central Powers resulting in the United States entering the War on behalf of the Allied Powers. The War is long and bloody but the United States is able to defeat and reintegrate the South into the Union minus the Free State of Louisiana which France demanded remained an independent French nation. The US sends troops to the European theater in 1917 and ultimately the Central powers lose in this timeline just the same. This timeline largely converges with our own timeline post WWI minus a few social quirks of the new United States like African-Americans are largely concentrated in Southern Cities. The Confederacy in its attempt to differentiate itself from the United States was more willing to flirt with European Ideas such as those of Nitsche, Marx, Hagel etc. As a result Southern Cities are hotbeds of Marxist inspired movement that the US has to deal with going forward in the 20th century.