Poland partitioned at Deluge

[octoberman]

In the Deluge Poland was invaded by Sweden and Russia. Sweden conquered Poland and Lithuania. Russia conquered Ukraine and Belarus. Yet the Polish carpathian held out. But Tsar Alexis felt he got short end of the stick and turned on Sweden. Poland used this to recovered their territories.

So what if Tsar Alexis didn't turn his ally and kept his gains partitioning Poland ?

How would this Russian and Swedish history ?

Poland during the deluge

 

[PeterEzgo]

I don't think Sweden can hold that much territory and people long term. That probably means either Poland becomes independent again after a period of Swedish occupation or another power (Russia? someone else?) takes Poland.

 

[Jürgen]

In OTL the main partition plan was roughly like this:

Sweden would get most of Lithuanian (personal union), Ducal Prussia and Courland would become a Swedish instead of Polish vassal and Sweden would annex Royal Prussia.

Brandenburg would get Greater Poland (pretty much the later Prussian province of Posen) as a sovereign duchy. It will likely be called Posen.

Congress Poland and Galicia would stay an independent Polish kingdom with the (Calvinist) Prince of Transylvania as its king.

Russia would get parts of Lithuania and Ukraine, parts of Ukraine would be annexed directly and other part would become a independent Cossack state under Russian vassalage,

So let’s start with some POD which help this happens. George II Rakiczi of Transylvania get Ottoman support for this plan, maybe he make a deal where the Ottomans joins in the war or just convince them, they’re better off with a weaker Poland even if it means a stronger Transylvania. In Denmark Frederik III dies under a sudden illness in 1656, which mean Christian V becomes king (he was elected as heir in 1655) and Denmark end up under a regency council until 1663, so we see no Danish declaration of war against Sweden.

So let’s imagine the partition I described happened.

In Swedish territories I expect we would a see more or less complete conversion of the population to Lutheranism, expect for the population in territories under Calvinist nobles. Maybe the Greek Catholics could hold out, but I suspect not. I expect the surviving Jewish population to be expelled. German, Baltic German and Swedish burghers replace the Jews in the towns.

In Posen the local Catholic population can choose to convert to Lutheranism or Calvinism or get out. Jews will likely be more welcome there.

In the rump kingdom of Poland, the king will favor Calvinist, but he will likely adopt religious tolerance as also existed in Transylvania. Poland will see an influx of Jews, but the new king will also welcome foreign Protestants to settle in the cities or as free farmers. The king and nobility will likely see a continued political conflict with the nobility trying to keep and expand their liberties and the king trying to expand royal power.

In Russian and Hetmanate territories Jews and Catholics will be killed or expelled.

Abroad we don’t see the rise in absolutism in Denmark (at least not yet) and with Sweden having established complete control over the eastern Baltic, Denmark is unlikely to start a war with Sweden. The Danish king will keep a focus on strengthen the burgher and peasant estates as a counter to the nobility.

Maybe Vienna will fall to the Turks, while they can’t keep it, this will result in the Habsburg expelled from Hungary and a rise of Lutheran Upper Hungarian kingdom (Slovakia) and lower Royal Hungary ending up under Ottoman control, Croatia stay under Habsburg control.

 

[DJ03]

The Treaty of Radnot did not allocate the complete dismemberment of Poland; more specifically, the Nowogródek Voivodeship would come under the direct control of the Radziwiłł estates. So I guess the Poles have a funny little rump state. Here's an accurate map of the territorial deposition:
View attachment 806437

as pointed out in a previous thread, the partition would include also two states for members of the Radziwill family

 

[Jürgen]

as pointed out in a previous thread, the partition would include also two states for members of the Radziwill family

So two states carved out of southern Lithuania and Sweden getting Mazovia. I would lean toward Brandenburg’s gain still being limited to Posen, and the rump Polish state also including all of Galicia simply because it gives better ways to cross the Carpathians.

 

[traminer]

As someone in the middle of divorcing and messing up Poland and Lithuania, I'm eager to see what possibilities this thread turns up to steal of course.

 

[raharris1973]

as pointed out in a previous thread, the partition would include also two states for members of the Radziwill family

Do y'all think that Radnot map is accurate? Russia is seriously under-achieving in it, especially compared with the military occupation map shown in the OP. Russia perhaps gets a dominant influence over the yellow Cossack state, but *all* of eastern Lithuania, modern Belarus is shown in a shade of pink, to unite with Sweden, so nada annexation for Russia.

Is Jew-purge from Swedish and Cossack controlled lands that Jurgen suggests a consensus position?

In Swedish territories I expect we would a see more or less complete conversion of the population to Lutheranism, expect for the population in territories under Calvinist nobles. Maybe the Greek Catholics could hold out, but I suspect not. I expect the surviving Jewish population to be expelled. German, Baltic German and Swedish burghers replace the Jews in the towns.

In Posen the local Catholic population can choose to convert to Lutheranism or Calvinism or get out. Jews will likely be more welcome there.

Why the big contrast in Jewish policies between Lutheran (with Calvinist minorities) Sweden, and Lutheran (with Calvinist minorities or fads) Brandenburg?

 

[DJ03]

Do y'all think that Radnot map is accurate?

bo honest: idk
now that you mention it, it does look like the the russians would be sgnfcntly underachieving

 

[octoberman]

as pointed out in a previous thread, the partition would include also two states for members of the Radziwill family

What are the sources ?

 

[DJ03]

What are the sources ?

tbh, my knowledge only goes as far as the wiki page for the treaty and the modern history course i followed about a year ago. both the wiki page and the textbook for the course prbbly cite some sources, but i hnstly didn't check them

 

[raharris1973]

If we take the Radnot partition map at face value, and @Jürgen 's predictions of anti-semitic policies of partitioners at face value, we will drastically change the trajectory and development of Ashkenazi Jewry and it environment that later became known as "the Pale of Settlement" from the mid-17th century (basically 1660) onward.

Applying the policies to the map, with the Swedes and Cossacks (and Russians- but they do not appear to be getting anything) adopting "Spanish-style" expulsionist policies, Jews are excluded from all Ukraine and all sorts of prominent centers of Jewish life like Vilna, Warsaw - it is written as "Varsovie" in the map. Grodno, Minsk, Pinsk. You won't have the Vilna Gaon without Vilna, for example [maybe you could have a Lublin Gaon instead].

Jewish communities would be permitted to persist only in under 50% of the land area of the former PLC, all inland areas well away from the Baltic and Black Seas, in Brandenburg's Posen partition, in rump Poland, with Cracow and Lublin as its leading cities, in personal union with Transylvania, and in the two "Pornographic" Duchies or Countries of the Radziwills, Slutsk and Brest, sitting astride the Pripet marshes.

Constrained to reside in a much smaller area and likely taxed and robbed on the way out, this would be an impoverishing experience for Jews of the former PLC, likely limit natural net population growth, and encourage some conversions and defections. It would probably also encourage Ashkenazi emigration further afield, and at this time, with Prussia "saturated" beyond its willingness to tolerate absorbing more Jews, the Austrian Habsburgs intolerant, the main direction would seem to have to be southward into the Ottoman Balkans and the lands of its vassals, so everywhere between Romania, Hungary, Dalmatia, Salonica, Athens, and Smyrna.

Odd effects might include the addition of an Ashkenazi quarter alongside the Sephardic quarter of Salonica. In Hungary, it would all be little rest for the Jews as the Great Turkish War is coming soon. Although Sobieski won't be there to be a champion for Vienna.

 

[Jürgen]

Why the big contrast in Jewish policies between Lutheran (with Calvinist minorities) Sweden, and Lutheran (with Calvinist minorities or fads) Brandenburg?

Scandinavia was vastly more antisemitic than Germany at the time and Sweden was the most antisemitic Scandinavian country.

 

[Jürgen]

If we take the Radnot partition map at face value, and @Jürgen 's predictions of anti-semitic policies of partitioners at face value, we will drastically change the trajectory and development of Ashkenazi Jewry and it environment that later became known as "the Pale of Settlement" from the mid-17th century (basically 1660) onward.

Applying the policies to the map, with the Swedes and Cossacks (and Russians- but they do not appear to be getting anything) adopting "Spanish-style" expulsionist policies, Jews are excluded from all Ukraine and all sorts of prominent centers of Jewish life like Vilna, Warsaw - it is written as "Varsovie" in the map. Grodno, Minsk, Pinsk. You won't have the Vilna Gaon without Vilna, for example [maybe you could have a Lublin Gaon instead].

View attachment 887288

Jewish communities would be permitted to persist only in under 50% of the land area of the former PLC, all inland areas well away from the Baltic and Black Seas, in Brandenburg's Posen partition, in rump Poland, with Cracow and Lublin as its leading cities, in personal union with Transylvania, and in the two "Pornographic" Duchies or Countries of the Radziwills, Slutsk and Brest, sitting astride the Pripet marshes.

Constrained to reside in a much smaller area and likely taxed and robbed on the way out, this would be an impoverishing experience for Jews of the former PLC, likely limit natural net population growth, and encourage some conversions and defections. It would probably also encourage Ashkenazi emigration further afield, and at this time, with Prussia "saturated" beyond its willingness to tolerate absorbing more Jews, the Austrian Habsburgs intolerant, the main direction would seem to have to be southward into the Ottoman Balkans and the lands of its vassals, so everywhere between Romania, Hungary, Dalmatia, Salonica, Athens, and Smyrna.

Odd effects might include the addition of an Ashkenazi quarter alongside the Sephardic quarter of Salonica. In Hungary, it would all be little rest for the Jews as the Great Turkish War is coming soon. Although Sobieski won't be there to be a champion for Vienna.

I could see Jews move to Crimean Khanate and spread along the Ottoman Black Sea coast, which would have the interesting effect of Yiddish speaking minorities in Turkey. I could also see some Jews migrate West and settle in town with religious tolerance in Schleswig-Holstein (while Denmark was very antisemitic, the Danish king wasn’t and he allowed Jews to settle in several towns in the duchies where the noble dominated Danish Council of the Realm had no power (interesting the Danish noble estate was more antisemitic than the Danish ecclesial estate).

Also if the Turk win at Vienna, the Great Turkish War will push into the future. The Habsburg will be thrown out Hungary with Slovakia becoming a independent Lutheran principality under Ottoman suzerainty and likely most towns of Western Hungary being depopulated by the population fleeing or being enslaved, which open up a opportunity for Jews to move into these cities. The Habsburg will with a defeat at Vienna be more busy fighting the French again than reconquer Hungary, and Austrian warfare in Hungary will likely only happen again after the Spanish Succession War.

 

[RedSword12]

Also if the Turk win at Vienna, the Great Turkish War will push into the future. The Habsburg will be thrown out Hungary with Slovakia becoming a independent Lutheran principality under Ottoman suzerainty and likely most towns of Western Hungary being depopulated by the population fleeing or being enslaved, which open up a opportunity for Jews to move into these cities. The Habsburg will with a defeat at Vienna be more busy fighting the French again than reconquer Hungary, and Austrian warfare in Hungary will likely only happen again after the Spanish Succession War.

I think it's a bit much to assume the Turks necessarily win at Vienna, assuming the circumstances are roughly similar minus the Poles. The Holy League had many constituents and the Ottomans were already crumbling under the pressure of the relief army. The cavalry charge signaling the end of effective Turkish resistance was finishing off an enemy on the verge of defeat. It's hard to fend off a relief army while trying to storm a city at the same time. Not that the Turks couldn't win, but the odds aren't great to begin with (and frankly it's assuming a bit much that butterflies won't make the circumstances of the next Ottoman go at Vienna highly unpredictable).

 

[OxSpace]

Do y'all think that Radnot map is accurate? Russia is seriously under-achieving in it, especially compared with the military occupation map shown in the OP. Russia perhaps gets a dominant influence over the yellow Cossack state, but *all* of eastern Lithuania, modern Belarus is shown in a shade of pink, to unite with Sweden, so nada annexation for Russia.

Because Russia was not involved in Radnot. The Cossack state is not an extension of Russia here in that Bohdan Khmelnytsky had tried to align with Sweden after the Truce of Vilna which Russia allied with the PLC.

 

[raharris1973]

Because Russia was not involved in Radnot. The Cossack state is not an extension of Russia here in that Bohdan Khmelnytsky had tried to align with Sweden after the Truce of Vilna which Russia allied with the PLC.

So Russia just started the war to conquer land from Poland....and fight all comers. Never attempting to negotiate with other invaders of Poland I guess? So Russia never need to write down or draw lines on a map of what it specifically wanted. You just sort of had to assume it was somewhere between "whatever they've taken" and "whatever they can get" and "whatever they can keep".

 

[Analytical Engine]

Scandinavia was vastly more antisemitic than Germany at the time and Sweden was the most antisemitic Scandinavian country.

Any particular reason why? It's not as if the Jewish population of the region has ever been that large.

 

[Jürgen]

Any particular reason why? It's not as if the Jewish population of the region has ever been that large.

That was the reason, for Germans Jews were people for the Scandinavians they were mythological creatures from the Bible, it was also why the more cosmopolitan Danes were less antisemitic than Swedes and Norwegians.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Ottomans were badly overstretched logistically at Vienna (and are liable to be worse off iTTL as they need to help their vassal police Poland), and iOTL the primitive Polish contingent was smaller than both the Austrian and Imperial contingents of the relief force. The charge of the Winged Hussars was cool and iconic, but the Austrians pretty consistently outfought the Ottomans throughout the Great Turkish War and the Ottoman forces at Vienna weren't in a position to resist any coup-de-main (a quarter of the Ottoman Army had already deserted before the relief force even arrived).

Vienna goes about as it did iOTL, then gigachad Eugene of Savoy goes and gets the Crown of Poland for Emperor Leopold.

 

[Jürgen]

The Ottomans were badly overstretched logistically at Vienna (and are liable to be worse off iTTL as they need to help their vassal police Poland), and iOTL the primitive Polish contingent was smaller than both the Austrian and Imperial contingents of the relief force. The charge of the Winged Hussars was cool and iconic, but the Austrians pretty consistently outfought the Ottomans throughout the Great Turkish War and the Ottoman forces at Vienna weren't in a position to resist any coup-de-main (a quarter of the Ottoman Army had already deserted before the relief force even arrived).

Vienna goes about as it did iOTL, then gigachad Eugene of Savoy goes and gets the Crown of Poland for Emperor Leopold.

Yes, that’s not an unlikely scenario either, while Poland won’t be an Ottoman vassal, the Polish king is a Ottoman vassal through Transylvania (unless he have changed sides in the years since). The Polish Catholics could call on the Ottomans for help, and at is point in time Sweden in OTL had a moment of weakness. So the Swedes comes to help the king of Poland only for the Hohenzollern to use the opportunity to turn on them, and Sweden lose the war and lose Royal Prussia and Mazovia, but keep Lithuania and Courland.