Plausibility Check, AU Latin American Wars of Independence

[Eadspel]

I'm bouncing around some ideas for a TL and looking to avoid the AH cliche of South America being identical to OTL, so I was wondering how plausible some more Spanish success in the LatAm Independence Wars would be with some of the changes I've made so far.

Relevant to South America is that the British invasions of La Plata succeed, and they end up annexing Argentina and Uruguay, and the survival of the UK of Portugal and Brazil. I'm also considering whether in the event of the British taking Louisiana in the War of 1812, the Spanish might make protests that the Napoleonic sale was illegitimate, resulting in Westminster sending some cash their way to shut them up.

My question is, could this result in Spain retaining some more of their possessions? I can recall a TL in which Peru was retained under the crown (without British interference), and another discussion in which it was said that without Argentina as a springboard Chile's revolution likely would not have been successful. Whatever crops up, I'm not above leaning a little on the levers of fate to make things more interesting.

 

[Eadspel]

I can recall a TL in which Peru was retained under the crown (without British interference), and another discussion in which it was said that without Argentina as a springboard Chile's revolution likely would not have been successful.

I went looking for these distant memories, the TL was the wonderful Revenge of the Crown, by Sarthak, link to the relevant Threadmark here, and in fact had Spain even more success than I recalled, retaining Chile and New Grenada as well. The other discussion unfortunately still eludes me, if anyone recognises what I'm talking about and could point me its way it would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Mildtryth]

I'm bouncing around some ideas for a TL and looking to avoid the AH cliche of South America being identical to OTL, so I was wondering how plausible some more Spanish success in the LatAm Independence Wars would be with some of the changes I've made so far.

Relevant to South America is that the British invasions of La Plata succeed, and they end up annexing Argentina and Uruguay, and the survival of the UK of Portugal and Brazil. I'm also considering whether in the event of the British taking Louisiana in the War of 1812, the Spanish might make protests that the Napoleonic sale was illegitimate, resulting in Westminster sending some cash their way to shut them up.

My question is, could this result in Spain retaining some more of their possessions? I can recall a TL in which Peru was retained under the crown (without British interference), and another discussion in which it was said that without Argentina as a springboard Chile's revolution likely would not have been successful. Whatever crops up, I'm not above leaning a little on the levers of fate to make things more interesting.

While taking the Plata area itself would be feasible, with so many fronts to fight on at that time, i doubt the British would be able to establish control over the hinterland in anything approaching a quick manner. in any case, not even the British themselves really knew what to do with the place at the time of the invasion - they were still debating whether to annex the place or turn it into a protectorate.

 

[1962strat]

While taking the Plata area itself would be feasible, with so many fronts to fight on at that time, i doubt the British would be able to establish control over the hinterland in anything approaching a quick manner. in any case, not even the British themselves really knew what to do with the place at the time of the invasion - they were still debating whether to annex the place or turn it into a protectorate.

Agreed, but they might still be able to take some land along the Paraná River, since there they can still leverage their fleet.

Going by this map, they should be able to take the light orange area with relative ease, while the dark orange part would hold unless a significant land campaign is organized.

The problem with this is that while they might hold for the duration of the war, the dark orange areas are logistically severed from the remaining parts of the Spanish Empire, given that the possible routes are through the Andes from Chile or from Peru through Bolivia, the latter being a rebel hotspot and not really sufficient to serve as a trade outlet. I reckon that the Spanish might just cut their losses and use the dark orange lands as a bargaining chip to get some other concessions instead of clinging to it.

 

[Eadspel]

While taking the Plata area itself would be feasible, with so many fronts to fight on at that time, i doubt the British would be able to establish control over the hinterland in anything approaching a quick manner. in any case, not even the British themselves really knew what to do with the place at the time of the invasion - they were still debating whether to annex the place or turn it into a protectorate.

Very true, someone would need to take a firm decision and stick to it if anything significant is going to happen, but I think that's not too difficult to butterfly into existence, IIRC the very invasion itself was already based off a very loose interpretation of the order to "defend the Cape", so the commanders taking the initiative here doesn't seem beyond the pale. And as regards control of the hinterlands, I agree completely, any British annexation would be relegated to Buenos Aires and Montevideo in the early years, but then from my understanding it was the same with the independent Argentina, it took them several years to pacify the rest of the country that they claimed. Perhaps with Westminster's pathological aversion to spending money it might end up with a situation similar to the Boers, semi-independent republics under the British umbrella, rather than direct rule from BA?

Agreed, but they might still be able to take some land along the Paraná River, since there they can still leverage their fleet.

Going by this map, they should be able to take the light orange area with relative ease, while the dark orange part would hold unless a significant land campaign is organized.

The problem with this is that while they might hold for the duration of the war, the dark orange areas are logistically severed from the remaining parts of the Spanish Empire, given that the possible routes are through the Andes from Chile or from Peru through Bolivia, the latter being a rebel hotspot and not really sufficient to serve as a trade outlet. I reckon that the Spanish might just cut their losses and use the dark orange lands as a bargaining chip to get some other concessions instead of clinging to it.

The British appeared to have some plans for a land campaign, but the key word here is "significant", and I think they rather mirror the American ideas surrounding Canada in the War of 1812, surely it will be as simple as just marching in? Unlikely.

So a resistance from Cordoba seems likely, but one unable to join effectively with Spanish forces, and well placed to supply revolutionaries if they so desire. Perhaps it may end up as the capital of a Gaucho republic?

 

[1962strat]

So a resistance from Cordoba seems likely, but one unable to join effectively with Spanish forces, and well placed to supply revolutionaries if they so desire. Perhaps it may end up as the capital of a Gaucho republic?

I think they depended too much on the Buenos Aires port, the population was too sparse, and there wasn't any significant economic activity to sustain it. Furthermore, I think neither the British nor the Spanish would like to have an independent state on their border, if only due to the ideological threat, so they would probably come to some sort of agreement. I could see the Spanish ceding that in exchange for some concession or another, given it's not very valuable to them as things stand.

And as regards control of the hinterlands, I agree completely, any British annexation would be relegated to Buenos Aires and Montevideo in the early years, but then from my understanding it was the same with the independent Argentina, it took them several years to pacify the rest of the country that they claimed. Perhaps with Westminster's pathological aversion to spending money it might end up with a situation similar to the Boers, semi-independent republics under the British umbrella, rather than direct rule from BA?

Yes, there were a series of civil wars that lasted decades over how centralized the country would be. The situation is quite different here, tho. For once, with the country never having fought and won against Spain, there isn't much of a local army to speak of, and the British-aligned Buenos Aires would hold the only halfway professional and well-funded forces. Ideologically, the ideas of freedom and independence are not so stoked, and it's more of change in administration than a revolution than OTL.

There's also the fact that Argentine core lands are really bad places for guerilla warfare, being mostly plains, so effective resistance against a superior army might be very hard. I could see rebellions on the west and northwest tho.

 

[1962strat]

Also gonna tag @minifidel that might be able to help here, given that he has a TL set on this period.

 

[minifidel]

Also gonna tag @minifidel that might be able to help here, given that he has a TL set on this period.

Technically two, since my British Uruguay TL touches on a similar premise lol. Thank you for the tag!

I think they depended too much on the Buenos Aires port, the population was too sparse, and there wasn't any significant economic activity to sustain it. Furthermore, I think neither the British nor the Spanish would like to have an independent state on their border, if only due to the ideological threat, so they would probably come to some sort of agreement. I could see the Spanish ceding that in exchange for some concession or another, given it's not very valuable to them as things stand.

The (re)orientation of interior Argentina towards Buenos Aires was a gradual process; the political and economic center of gravity in the region was Lima, the Viceroyalty of La Plata had only existed for 30 years by the time it would be taken by the British in this premise.

My question is, could this result in Spain retaining some more of their possessions? I can recall a TL in which Peru was retained under the crown (without British interference), and another discussion in which it was said that without Argentina as a springboard Chile's revolution likely would not have been successful. Whatever crops up, I'm not above leaning a little on the levers of fate to make things more interesting.

See, the real challenge in keeping more Spanish possessions in Latin America is that the collapse of royal authority was catastrophic in the time between the British Invasions and the later French invasion of Spain. Even ostensibly royalist and loyalist governments like the first Mexican government were - ultimately - bitterly disappointed that Spain ultimately decided to cut its losses and give up its continental possessions (which were never as profitable as the Caribbean islands, or were far more expensive to maintain by comparison).

 

[1962strat]

The (re)orientation of interior Argentina towards Buenos Aires was a gradual process; the political and economic center of gravity in the region was Lima, the Viceroyalty of La Plata had only existed for 30 years by the time it would be taken by the British in this premise.

Sure for the centre of power, but the economic outlet of the region was already Buenos Aires due to purely geographical reasons. It's way easier to get from Córdoba to Buenos Aires than to Lima.

 

[Tupolev0247]

Another interesting possibility for South America could be that the Portuguese royal family never arrives in Brazil, resulting in it splitting into smaller states like its neighbours.

 

[Xenophonte]

Relevant to South America is that the British invasions of La Plata succeed, and they end up annexing Argentina and Uruguay, and the survival of the UK of Portugal and Brazil.

My question is, could this result in Spain retaining some more of their possessions? I can recall a TL in which Peru was retained under the crown (without British interference), and another discussion in which it was said that without Argentina as a springboard Chile's revolution likely would not have been successful. Whatever crops up, I'm not above leaning a little on the levers of fate to make things more interesting.

My take, (minority one, seemingly) on this is that you couldn't throw a gigantic wrench to the OTL events/process and still expect that first, the S. America and particularly the La Plata Juntista and later their whole revolutionary/independence process still would happen/to develop as OTL...
I. e. that any more or less successful and/or permanent British takeover of the La Plata region capital cities/coastal regions, would per itself with a British garrison in BS As and Montevideo. It'd be likely to preclude that the OTL Mayo Revolution comes to happen and that it would have the chance to spread.
Also, in this scenario, should be noted that the OTL key Criollos urban militias and their leaders, (many of them would later have influential roles, in the Rev. process) wouldn't be able or even willing to have anywhere near of their OTL role/influence. Cause, should be noted,too, that a British victory in the 1807 battle of Bs As, these militias along with the both the line regiments and the voluntary ones, would ceased to exist anymore, after be defeated/destroyed in combat. These units/militias 'd have had many of their officers and militiamen dead, kept as POWs/paroled or either 'd have fled to Rosario/Córdoba. While others have would stay in their city as British subjects either recovering from their wounds or even perhaps some of them as more or less willing collaborators of the British military administration.
So, besides that, IMO, would be a widespread shock and anger reaction through La Plata, Alto Perú and Peru, itself, one that would manifest the exacerbation of the loyalists/royalist/patriotic feelings. And, likewise its support among the elites and region's people. Ones that also, I'd guess that would be mirrored by a likely deep mistrust and anger towards their British enemy.
Given that, I'd suppose that in this Scenario, Cordoba, would overnight see itself turned into the de facto Virreinal capital with Asuncion and especially Chuquisaca (OTL Bolivia), acquiring, too, a new importance.

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Not an expert

But I think that a British success in capturing Buenos Aires might prove more counterproductive than beneficial. For one, extending control to the interior would be difficult, and I think that royalist forces in the area would still make life difficult for the British, often managing to cut off the city from the hinterland. It would be possible for the authorities of the viceroyalty to seek refuge to the interior (or Montevideo), as Xenophonte mentioned. It is possible that Montevideo, if it managed to remain outside British control, could supplant Buenos Aires to a large extent as the entrepot for Platine trade. Combined with the mistrust towards Britain, the anxieties about local defence running higher, and the weakening of the influence of the Buenos Aires (commercial) elites, it could mean that the loyalists could have perhaps a better chance to keep control of the viceroyalty's lands; if the British preferred Buenos Aires, the merchants and authorities at Montevideo would try perhaps to promote more trade with non-British subjects, such as Americans and Portuguese. On the other hand, without de Liniers' attempts to strong-arm Montevideo and terminate its privileges, the rift between the two primary cities of Rio de la Plata would probably not grow so large as IOTL, and, if the British presence turned out to be rather problematic or damaging to local economic interests, Buenos Aires elites could turn perhaps to Montevideo in order to collaborate and oust the British.

Another development is that the British could be encouraged by this success to try to attack other ports - Caracas, Veracruz and Havana in particular. In the case of Veracruz, were such an operation to succeed, it could perhaps affect mercury imports negatively, thus exerting further pressure on the mining industry - a development which neither the controlling interests, nor the merchants, nor those occupied in the mines would find positive; again, we could see perhaps an increase in trade with third parties, through previously secondary ports, as well as more distrust towards the British government.

Furthermore, news of the British success(es) could make the French authorities even more concerned about the flow of silver from the Spanish colonies, and more convinced of the "ineptitude" of the Spanish government. At the same time, opposition to Charles IV and the Prince of the Peace would become even stronger, resulting perhaps in earlier attempts to remove Godoy from his position of influence and perhaps even place Ferdinand on the throne. If this happened while Napoleon was still in East Prussia, the French might be unable to respond to a regime change in Spain in an effective manner, which could compel Napoleon to tolerate the new government in Madrid for the time being. I think that under these circumstances, realignment with Britain against France would be more difficult to entertain as an idea (therefore Napoleon could believe perhaps that the coup was to some extent in his favour, because it could result to more dynamic Spanish reaction to British actions), so I am not entirely sure about the actions of Ferdinand, apart from dismantling the network Godoy had built since the 1790s. Personally at least, I think he would stick to the policy of strengtening royal control, reform, and centralisation, and without a French invasion and the question of the afrancesados yet, a relative continuity in the administrative apparatus and the commitment to reform would provide for greater stability.

More speculative: but the combination of more successful British attacks against Spanish territories and the likely consequent economic repercussions might make local elites more worried about severing ties with Spain - and France. In my view at least, the failure of local forces to repel British attacks and the dislocations that could follow could make local merchants, landowners etc more careful about not rocking the boat. Combined with a more stable political situation in Spain, it could perhaps take some steam off the drive for greater autonomy

 

[Xenophonte]

But I think that a British success in capturing Buenos Aires might prove more counterproductive than beneficial. For one, extending control to the interior would be difficult, and I think that royalist forces in the area would still make life difficult for the British, often managing to cut off the city from the hinterland. It would be possible for the authorities of the viceroyalty to seek refuge to the interior (or Montevideo), as Xenophonte mentioned. It is possible that Montevideo, if it managed to remain outside British control, could supplant Buenos Aires to a large extent as the entrepot for Platine trade.

To be clearer... In the scenario in discussion, in the '07, from the La Plata main estuarine cities, Mdeo was already taken and garrisoned and Bs. As. the Virreinal capital was OTL the scenario of bloody urban combat in what the British were defeated. So, if TTL would happen the reverse outcome with a British Victory, it besides of the dire economical consequences for rest of La Plata territories that now would be cut off from their access to the sea through Mdeo and Bs As. And, even if probably the smuggling would reach an all times high, faced to such economical crisis, the would be forced to both if possible to redirect their trade to the Pacific and to attempt to gather resources for improve/readying their defenses and/or attempt to recover at least some of the lost.
But, the thing is that supposing that the development in Europe and the war against Napoleon wouldn't take precedence over the some far off conquered ports in S. América, for London. But,if not , and the British would decide that they want to keep and even more, to extend their controlled territories to the hinterland. without mention to Cordoba, (hundred of miles in the countryside) and/or to take an effective control of the La Plate interior waterways. Then, it would require an even bigger troops and Naval assets commitment than the one from IOTL and for an undefined amount of time with the final outcome far from be certain to favour the British interests...

 

[1962strat]

To be clearer... In the scenario in discussion, in the '07, from the La Plata main estuarine cities, Mdeo was already taken and garrisoned and Bs. As. the Virreinal capital was OTL the scenario of bloody urban combat in what the British were defeated. So, if TTL would happen the reverse outcome with a British Victory, it besides of the dire economical consequences for rest of La Plata territories that now would be cut off from their access to the sea through Mdeo and Bs As. And, even if probably the smuggling would reach an all times high, faced to such economical crisis, the would be forced to both if possible to redirect their trade to the Pacific and to attempt to gather resources for improve/readying their defenses and/or attempt to recover at least some of the lost.
But, the thing is that supposing that the development in Europe and the war against Napoleon wouldn't take precedence over the some far off conquered ports in S. América, for London. But,if not , and the British would decide that they want to keep and even more, to extend their controlled territories to the hinterland. without mention to Cordoba, (hundred of miles in the countryside) and/or to take an effective control of the La Plate interior waterways. Then, it would require an even bigger troops and Naval assets commitment than the one from IOTL and for an undefined amount of time with the final outcome far from be certain to favour the British interests...

I think Britain's most likely strategy is to leverage their control of trade and Spain's perceived hopelessness at some points of the Napoleonic wars to negotiate some sort of protectorate or some similar arrangements over some of the other La Plata territories.

By the 1800s most of what is nowadays Argentina was already heavily oriented to Buenos Aires, through the so-called process of "Atlantization". Potosí was no longer the center of gravity of the region. For places like Córdoba, trading through the pacific ports requires crossing the Andes, which simply isn't practical. A British takeover of Buenos Aires and Montevideo would put this region under an effective blockade with no end in sight, so I find it plausible they would be willing to go for a settlement, especially when Spanish prestige would be at an all-time low.

I went a bit down this rabbit hole and started reading about Córdoba's economy of the time from this article in Spanish. It's mentioned that mule breeding for the Buenos Aires-Potosí route was one of their main production, trade which would be stopped by this situation as well as leather production for export through Buenos Aires. Both the import of cheap European textiles and the production of local ones are mentioned. In short, practically all the economic activity was linked in some way or another to Buenos Aires, and that gives us a picture of how bad several years of being cut off from it could be for Córdoba.

 

[Xenophonte]

I think Britain's most likely strategy is to leverage their control of trade and Spain's perceived hopelessness at some points of the Napoleonic wars to negotiate some sort of protectorate or some similar arrangements over some of the other La Plata territories.

Perhaps, but ,if so and the pressure would be too much, then from the Spanish perspective, wouldn't be much if any difference between the French and the British,. Cause, if they accept that blatant blackmail like on to of such land grabbing, who'd be able to tell that it would be the only or last part of their empire to be lost to the British...

By the 1800s most of what is nowadays Argentina was already heavily oriented to Buenos Aires, through the so-called process of "Atlantization". Potosí was no longer the center of gravity of the region. For places like Córdoba, trading through the pacific ports requires crossing the Andes, which simply isn't practical. A British takeover of Buenos Aires and Montevideo would put this region under an effective blockade with no end in sight, so I find it plausible they would be willing to go for a settlement, especially when Spanish prestige would be at an all-time low.

While, indeed, as I mentioned, the remaining free territories would be facing a pretty dire situation, (even if, perhaps at certain extent it somewhat 'd be mitigated by the smuggling), due to the economical crisis from suddenly being cut off from the Atlantic Economy and their links with Spain. But, based in the OTL reaction to the first, temporal British occupation of Bs As, and preparatives, ongoing, for the case that, in the 1807 attempt, the worst would happen... I would suppose that after being sent the news and the call from help to Peru, that in Córdoba, would continue to gather resources and/or start to plan and organize an expedition against British garrison in Bs As, while waiting for the help/answer from the Virrey of Peru.
Now if it fail or aren't met with the expected answer/help from Peru, then, indeed all the bets would be off...
Now, also, should be taken into accounts that while OTL the geographical imperatives so as the political and economical/financial realities in a centuries long processes shaped the La Plata inner Market and trade routes... That, OTL, during the colonial times weren't any kind of necessity to try and find alternate trade routes as it happened to the Alto Peru after that the revolutionaries Juntistas armies were defeated and was cut off from their traditional commercial seaport outlet. But, I'd assume that the reawakened and strengthened Spanish Virreinal military demand would at least help to the local artisans/local industries/breeders to weather the otherwise near unavoidable economical collapse. Also, I would assume, too, that if TTL the need would arise that barring the smuggling rings, that the official trade would be need to find alternative trade routes. Ones, that now in a radically different politico and economically situation, trade routes, that in normal times would be too onerous and impractical to even think to use, now perhaps may be considered as the best alternative to depend and pay custom duties to a foreign power. So, perhaps, TTL , the Chuquisaca/Asunción-Salta/Tucuman-Cordoba-Bs. As. route through the old 'Camino Real' (royal road), now, would perhap be reversed and from Cordoba/Tucuman or Asuncion the new possible trade route/s would go from the above mentioned cities to Chuquisaca and from there to a (OTL Peruvian or Chilean) port in the Pacific...

 

[1962strat]

Perhaps, but ,if so and the pressure would be too much, then from the Spanish perspective, wouldn't be much if any difference between the French and the British,. Cause, if they accept that blatant blackmail like on to of such land grabbing, who'd be able to tell that it would be the only or last part of their empire to be lost to the British...

I don't mean that the Spanish would cede the areas, but that the local authorities would end up negotiating with the British out of need.

While, indeed, as I mentioned, the remaining free territories would be facing a pretty dire situation, (even if, perhaps at certain extent it somewhat 'd be mitigated by the smuggling), due to the economical crisis from suddenly being cut off from the Atlantic Economy and their links with Spain. But, based in the OTL reaction to the first, temporal British occupation of Bs As, and preparatives, ongoing, for the case that, in the 1807 attempt, the worst would happen... I would suppose that after being sent the news and the call from help to Peru, that in Córdoba, would continue to gather resources and/or start to plan and organize an expedition against British garrison in Bs As, while waiting for the help/answer from the Virrey of Peru.

I'm not sure the reaction would be quite that strong. The defeat of the British OTL was a big factor in building an identity and Spanish American identity, so I think a reverse might just tank morale. The situation would IMO be too hopeless for them to last all the way till the end of the Napoleonic wars.

Now, also, should be taken into accounts that while OTL the geographical imperatives so as the political and economical/financial realities in a centuries long processes shaped the La Plata inner Market and trade routes... That, OTL, during the colonial times weren't any kind of necessity to try and find alternate trade routes as it happened to the Alto Peru after that the revolutionaries Juntistas armies were defeated and was cut off from their traditional commercial seaport outlet. But, I'd assume that the reawakened and strengthened Spanish Virreinal military demand would at least help to the local artisans/local industries/breeders to weather the otherwise near unavoidable economical collapse. Also, I would assume, too, that if TTL the need would arise that barring the smuggling rings, that the official trade would be need to find alternative trade routes. Ones, that now in a radically different politico and economically situation, trade routes, that in normal times would be too onerous and impractical to even think to use, now perhaps may be considered as the best alternative to depend and pay custom duties to a foreign power. So, perhaps, TTL , the Chuquisaca/Asunción-Salta/Tucuman-Cordoba-Bs. As. route through the old 'Camino Real' (royal road), now, would perhap be reversed and from Cordoba/Tucuman or Asuncion the new possible trade route/s would go from the above mentioned cities to Chuquisaca and from there to a (OTL Peruvian or Chilean city/port)...

I'm not quite sure this is logistically possible, for several reasons.

Firstly, nowadays Bolivia was an early hotspot of revolutionary activity, even before the OTL May Revolution in Buenos Aires. It's likely that routes going through there would be disrupted quite often.

Secondly, from a commercial point of view, the whole cost of a significantly longer journey might already push up costs too much to be profitable.

And lastly, with the limited resources and revolutionary activity involved, as well as not being terribly well managed institutions to begin with, I'm very skeptical of the Viceroyalties' ability to carry out such a logistical feat.

 

[GunterW]

Would the British even bother ruling the Rio de la Plata estuary (as some mentioned it will be difficult for them to control the interior) and instead establish a puppet government ruled by the criollos of Buenos Aires?

In OTL, there was discontent against Spanish rule but also the locals resisted the British invasions, would it be more practical to set up a government that would grant them access to the Rio de la Plata and trade rights?

I’ve always thought that a different (more pragmatic and with a higher emotional IQ) Carlota Joaquina would have been able to secure, with British support, the regency of La Plata and eventually rule there in her own right as queen, backed by British guns and money, as support for her was pretty fringe.

 

[1962strat]

Would the British even bother ruling the Rio de la Plata estuary (as some mentioned it will be difficult for them to control the interior) and instead establish a puppet government ruled by the criollos of Buenos Aires?

In OTL, there was discontent against Spanish rule but also the locals resisted the British invasions, would it be more practical to set up a government that would grant them access to the Rio de la Plata and trade rights?

I’ve always thought that a different (more pragmatic and with a higher emotional IQ) Carlota Joaquina would have been able to secure, with British support, the regency of La Plata and eventually rule there in her own right as queen, backed by British guns and money, as support for her was pretty fringe.

I don't think the degree of resistance would change much between a puppet state and a colony with at least more autonomy than they had under the Spanish, but I guess it could be justified either way. And also, from a colonial power mentality, it makes more sense to conquer colonies than to support independence movements.

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Another point to consider would probably be the social conditions in Buenos Aires.

IOTL, the first decade of the 19th century wasn't exactly great for the lower classes of the city, as they had to deal with rising prices in commodities and disruptions in the economic activity, which erased gains made by many labourers and artisans over that period; forthe latter, this was exacerbated by the increased use of slave labour in the city's economy and the growing use of lower skilled workers in positions that were previously reserved for more professional craftsmen.

The opening of Buenos Aires (and Montevideo) to unobstructed foreign trade by the British could help to some extent with reducing the effects of the disruptions in transatlantic trade; but at the same time, it would probably reinforce some of the aforementioned currents, because of changes such as the ability to import slaves and British/foreign manufactures to a larger extent and more easily than before. It would also be interesting to see if the British authorities would try to enforce the Act for the Abolition of the Slave Trade in the occupied cities - it would certainly be a further cause of worry for the local slave owners (many of whom were of few means themselves), and memories of the "French Conspiracy"of 1795 and aborted slave uprisings would still be there; I guess the local authorities could adopt a "pragmatic" approach and try to avoid enforcing the law, for the alternative could risk perhaps growing resentment of an important part of the population. In this case, the continued introduction of slave labour in the local economy and perhaps continued problems in trade with the interior, combined with the fact of foreign occupation, could perhaps drive slaves, parts of the lower classes and the professional groups whose livelihoods would be under pressure towards, a more confrontational. However, the absence of the militias, with their successes and the resultant focus they provided to a large part of the city's lower and middle classes, would probably mean that reaction ITTL would probably, at least in the short term, mesh with more loyalist tendencies.

Also, another potential question is that of the French residents in the colony, who iirc formed a rather large part of the foreigner community. IOTL, they were targeted by the cabildo of Buenos Aires after the victories against the British, as Liniers was accused of favouritism towards them, and of allowing them to dominate local defence and administration. Here they would probably be perceived as hostile elements by the British, but they would also be less isolated than OTL, and some of them, especially those who were involved in the "French Conspiracy", might try to stir trouble in the city in order to create difficulties for the British, if they hadn't been neutralised.

 

[1962strat]

The opening of Buenos Aires (and Montevideo) to unobstructed foreign trade by the British could help to some extent with reducing the effects of the disruptions in transatlantic trade; but at the same time, it would probably reinforce some of the aforementioned currents, because of changes such as the ability to import slaves and British/foreign manufactures to a larger extent and more easily than before. It would also be interesting to see if the British authorities would try to enforce the Act for the Abolition of the Slave Trade in the occupied cities - it would certainly be a further cause of worry for the local slave owners (many of whom were of few means themselves), and memories of the "French Conspiracy"of 1795 and aborted slave uprisings would still be there; I guess the local authorities could adopt a "pragmatic" approach and try to avoid enforcing the law, for the alternative could risk perhaps growing resentment of an important part of the population. In this case, the continued introduction of slave labour in the local economy and perhaps continued problems in trade with the interior, combined with the fact of foreign occupation, could perhaps drive slaves, parts of the lower classes and the professional groups whose livelihoods would be under pressure towards, a more confrontational. However, the absence of the militias, with their successes and the resultant focus they provided to a large part of the city's lower and middle classes, would probably mean that reaction ITTL would probably, at least in the short term, mesh with more loyalist tendencies.

I don't think that slavery would be too much of a sticking point, IMO. Unlike parts of Brazil or the Southern US, while there were slaves, it wasn't a slave-based economy, and there were relatively few ones to begin with. Slave trade wasn't really that significant for Buenos Aires.

It's also worth noting that Argentina banned the slave trade itself in 1812 and declared freedom of the womb in 1813, for once. While the revolutionary and liberal values that led to that are absent, the lack of pushback helps illustrate that the slave trade wasn't that important for the economy.

Also, another potential question is that of the French residents in the colony, who iirc formed a rather large part of the foreigner community. IOTL, they were targeted by the cabildo of Buenos Aires after the victories against the British, as Liniers was accused of favouritism towards them, and of allowing them to dominate local defence and administration. Here they would probably be perceived as hostile elements by the British, but they would also be less isolated than OTL, and some of them, especially those who were involved in the "French Conspiracy", might try to stir trouble in the city in order to create difficulties for the British, if they hadn't been neutralised.

I've never heard of a French community. I recall Liniers being accused of treason in favor of Napoleonic France, tho.