Okay lets talk about this they have more to gain fight with Germany.
The Germans gave them parts of southern France Corisca Tunisia all of Somalia and Istria. If anything the elite would just see this war to get more of French Africa and southern France. They also saw Germany take down three great powers in under two years.
Fight Germany they can lose Istria and their African holdings and gain what some mountain villages?
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Karoly in Budapest had a grand plan. He was going to strike at the very heart of Danubia and take something which would force Karl to grant Hungarian independence…
So, what do you think the Hungarians are going to do next?
Even if Hungary gains independence, isn't it completely surrounded? Let's see how well they will do in a decade. They will be left behind and bekomme nothing more than a primitive, undeveloped 'third world' country
Thanks! The Hungarians aren't done yet, not by a long shot...Great plottwist. I was hoping for an Austrian victory, but it seems that hungary will continue to resist.
all, empire is gonna be shook to the roots ? The hungarians pick Franz Ferdinands boy to be their king. Maybe
If Hungary's attempted secession from Danubia does succeed it will likely inspire groups similar to the Black Hand in non-German parts of the country to do something very similar regardless of the outcome.Thanks! The Hungarians aren't done yet, not by a long shot...
So, what do you think the Hungarians are going to do next?
Wow- an excellent analysis! I'm actually a little surprised anything I wrote got that kind of commentary.... that's what keeps us writers going.Hungary could win this fight if they're willing to sacrifice a lot of men, but their long term prospects are grim.
Maybe I'm just ignorant of the situation, but I'm failing to see a happy ending for Hungary? This reminds me of threads I've seen where people discuss the long term prospects of the CSA if they had won the American Civil War. I always was told that the confederate states would have been an unstable mess of a nation that would have collapsed in a few decades at best. There was just too many factors working against them.
The situation is not the same for this civil war, but there's definitely some similarities from my POV. Let's just perform a mental exercise and assume that Hungary succeeds in getting its independence. Let's also assume that the rest of Danubia survives and stands firm as a nation. Hungary is now landlocked and shares a border with a very angry Danubian Empire. Their army is only a fraction of the size of the Danubians and their industrial capabilities are nothing to write home about. They will badly need allies because Danubia will obviously want a rematch. Who will they turn to?
Definitely not the German Empire. The Kaiserreich will want to maintain good relations with Austria and courting their wayward kingdom will be a big no-no. I can see Danubia quickly sending a lobby group to Berlin to convince Germany to not diplomatically recognize Hungary for many years to come. What about Bulgaria or Romania? They are certainly options, but not great ones - they all have their own problems and disagreements and do not possess powerful armies. I don't think Italy is ballsy enough to start a war with Danubia so soon after the Weltkrieg. The only other option is Russia...which will be too preoccupied in the immediate future to offer any assistance. Hungary is completely alone and will be forced to fend for itself. After many years of army reforms, buying the latest weaponry, and careful planning, the Danubians will utterly crush the Hungarians in their second war in all probability.
If I were Hungary, mere independence is not good enough. For the sake of national survival, Danubia itself must be crushed. They're the number one threat to the kingdom's free existence. Consider OTL - Hungary got its independence when the Austria-Hungarian Empire totally collapsed and no one nearby had the strength or inclination to do battle against the Maygars. Hungary has to defeat Danubia so conclusively that the entire empire becomes a farce and disintegrates on its own. I'm just not sure they have the military capabilities to accomplish that. Another thing to consider is Germany. If Danubia and Hungary become locked in a battle to the death, I surmise that Germany will prefer to send aid to Vienna rather than Budapest. Germany craves stability in Europe at the moment and having Danubia collapse will cause all kinds of problems in the Balkans that I suspect Germany would want to avoid.
Even if Hungary wins their freedom, I give them 15-20 years of existence before they get reannexed - assuming the overall geopolitical situation stays roughly the same. Just my prediction.
If there is an Integralist/Fascist bloc in Place in the Sun it would likely be comprised of France, Spain, Wallonia and Romania. Italy isn't going to betray Germany and Danubia anytime soon and Portugal is a mixed bag regarding what might happen next especially regarding its long-standing alliance with Britain.Wow- an excellent analysis! I'm actually a little surprised anything I wrote got that kind of commentary.... that's what keeps us writers going.
The points you raise are excellent ones; nothing to disagree with there.
Hungary has a chance to win the war, but not the peace.
Edit: And yes, the ACW was something of an inspiration for this...
Likely, yes.If there is an Integralist/Fascist bloc in Place in the Sun it would likely be comprised of France, Spain, Wallonia and Romania. Italy isn't going to betray Germany and Danubia anytime soon and Portugal is a mixed bag regarding what might happen next especially regarding its long-standing alliance with Britain.
I think so. Spain is still going to face the same problems that led to the rise of Franco's Falangists since it stayed neutral in the conflict like OTL. Portugal could still be overthrown by the Estado Novo and break off from Britain depending on what TTL's 1920s looks like. Serbia is also another potential addition to the alliance since Austria-Hungary/Danubia declared war on them and took some of their territory. Wallonia would likely be led by Degrelle's Rexists as a puppet of Integralist France and the same applies to Flanders if they're lucky enough in World War II.Likely, yes.
No Italian in 1917 is seriously considering the possibility of betraying Germany or Danubia. However, I can reveal that they will use Vienna's weakness to strengthen their position in the Balkans....
Should a conflict between France and Germany erupt (which, if it takes place ITTL- it may well not- won't be for a while), Italian voices will be more divided.
I think so. Spain is still going to face the same problems that led to the rise of Franco's Falangists since it stayed neutral in the conflict like OTL. Romania still sided with the Entente if I recall and thus will be given harsh terms of peace similar to France which could result in Codreanu's Legionaires or alternate analogue taking control of the government. Portugal could still be overthrown by the Estado Novo and break off from Britain depending on what TTL's 1920s looks like. Serbia is also another potential addition to the alliance since Austria-Hungary/Danubia declared war on them and took some of their territory. Wallonia would likely be led by Degrelle's Rexists as a puppet of Integralist France and the same applies to Flanders.
As for Danubia, Hungary is in open rebellion against the nation and if it does successfully secede as I said its going to inspire similar attempts which could lead to a Yugoslavia-esque collapse in the worst case scenario given ethnic tensions.
Integralist France could become as reviled as Nazi Germany especially if they decided to get rid of Jews, left-wing political opponents and other "undesirable" targets. France after a hypothetical World War II in your timeline wouldn't be split up like Germany and probably a democratic government takes control likely as TTL's Fifth Republic. Hungary could also become Integralist if it does not get Transylvania.Falangism or an analogue will arise ITTL, yes... I haven't got all the kinks ironed out but I've got some broad strokes
Romania joined the Central Powers ITTL. It currently controls Bessarabia and enjoys positive relations with Germany. Right now, some in Bucharest are coveting Transylvania...
I'm not sure what to do with Portugal just yet... but I have a few ideas.
Belgium remains under King Albert's rule, but is a German puppet, controlling French Flanders but deprived of everything east of the Meuse. Berlin would react viciously if the Rexists or a similar group came to power.