PC: An East Prussian - Lithuanian Union?

[Deleted member 94680]

What if in the aftermath of WWI, the Entente had merged East Prussia with Lithuania as part of the Treaty of Versailles?

The Lithuanians would receive a larger population, the Poles would be less likely to try revanchist schemes (or would they?) and the Soviets would see the new nation as less of an easy target.

Would the creation of the new state prevent German revanchism? Would a Prussian-Lithuanian identity emerge? Would Baltic Germans be a stalwart or disruptive element?

Lastly, what would you call the new state?

 

[DracoLazarus]

It would be best to leave Masuria to Poland and make a population exchange, otherwise, between « Central Poland » and Masuria, this country has too many Poles for Poland not to go after it.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

It would be best to leave Masuria to Poland

I drew the borders based on the OTL plebiscites. The region voted to stay in East Prussia OTL, so I assumed they’d be content to stay here.

 

[RMcD94]

It would be best to leave Masuria to Poland and make a population exchange, otherwise, between « Central Poland » and Masuria, this country has too many Poles for Poland not to go after it.

What would the population make up be of this country?

How many Poles? How many Germans?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

What would the population make up be of this country?

How many Poles? How many Germans?

Going by wiki:
The population of the province in 1900 was 1,996,626 people, with a religious makeup of 1,698,465 Protestants, 269,196 Roman Catholics, and 13,877 Jews. ...The Polish-speaking population concentrated in the south of the province (Masuriaand Warmia) and all German geographic atlases at the start of 20th century showed the southern part of East Prussia as Polish with the number of Polish-speakers estimated at the time to be 300,000.

Its a very rough estimate, but East Prussia’s population stagnated pre-WWI so possibly somewhere around the same?

In 1923 there were 1.7 million Lithuanians and 65,000 Poles in Lithuania as well.

 

[David T]

This would leave the Lithuanians outnumbered by Germans. First, look at the population of Lithuania (including the Memel/Klaipeda area) in the mid-1920's (from Paul Magocsi, Historical Atlas of Central Europe):

A Polish document https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP08C01297R000400260003-9.pdf gices the 1933 population of East Prussia as follows:

If we assume that East Prussia was mostly German (or Masurians who identified with Germany because of their Lutheran faith, etc.) then (even if East Prussia's population was a bit smaller in 1925 than in 1933) you have simply created a new state whose majority (or at the very least large plurality) is ethnically or politically German, which will include the notorious East Prussian Junkers (much demonized by the Entente) and which will extend well beyond the 1914 boundaries of Germany, with which it would eventually seek to reunite.

Do I have to explain that this is not going to happen?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Do I have to explain that this is not going to happen?

No you don’t as that much is obvious. Don’t know you need to put it like that though. But would the Masurians vote for German unification if they had the chance of being part of a new nation?

An interesting point on the German majority though. I make it around 2 million Prussians to 1.7 million Lithuanians with 300,000 Poles. This would suggest the Poles hold the balance, assuming the Germans remain as a solid bloc. That and the Lithuanian population of East Prussia is so small as to not factor

I did wonder if the Junkers would decide to dominate East Prussia/Lithuania rather than attempt for unification. Understandably, there was a keen push for unification from Germany, but was it as strong from within East Prussia? They voted solidly for the DNVP until ‘30 it seems, which would seem to suggest as much. But obviously 30/40/50 percent voting DNVP doesn’t equal 1.9 million votes or even “everyone wants unification” if say, the East Prussian SPD decides to oppose it.

What would be required for the scenario to come about? Or is it as good as ASB?

 

[Eight Point Mistake]

Would the creation of the new state prevent German revanchism?

Not in the slightest.

Would a Prussian-Lithuanian identity emerge?

No, this state would probably radicalize both the East Prussian Germans and the Lithuanians.

Would Baltic Germans be a stalwart or disruptive element?

As an artificial state imposed on both the Eastern Germans and the Lithuanians, everyone would be a disruptive element.

 

[marcinL]

What if in the aftermath of WWI, the Entente had merged East Prussia with Lithuania as part of the Treaty of Versailles?

The Lithuanians would receive a larger population, the Poles would be less likely to try revanchist schemes (or would they?) and the Soviets would see the new nation as less of an easy target.

Would the creation of the new state prevent German revanchism? Would a Prussian-Lithuanian identity emerge? Would Baltic Germans be a stalwart or disruptive element?

Lastly, what would you call the new state?

The borders of Lithuanian part are insane.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The borders of Lithuanian part are insane.

How so?

I based it from this 1920s map

 

[LuckyLuciano]

How so?

I based it from this 1920s map

I like the map you made regardless of plausibility. I do think it would look a bit better/more plausible if the plebiscite parts that iotl didnt vote to join poland did ittl. Maybe they would out of not wanting to live in a lithuanian dominated nation. Regardless very cool map

 

[marcinL]

How so?

I based it from this 1920s map

I dont think that at any point it was reality in 1920 - for example Poles controlled Lwów for the entire time
You have the entire Suwalki governorate as part of Poland - it was divided between Poland and Lithuania
Part of the eastern border looks like Curzon line, while in Galicia it follows the line of Ukrainian claims

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I dont think that at any point it was reality in 1920

I think the map is what the Entente wanted, rather than hard fact. It is - I believe - from an American atlas published to reflect the “new reality” of the post-Versailles Europe. Therefore, my map is an attempt at an alt-Versailles arrangement.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

What if in the aftermath of WWI, the Entente had merged East Prussia with Lithuania as part of the Treaty of Versailles?

The Lithuanians would receive a larger population, the Poles would be less likely to try revanchist schemes (or would they?) and the Soviets would see the new nation as less of an easy target.

Would the creation of the new state prevent German revanchism? Would a Prussian-Lithuanian identity emerge? Would Baltic Germans be a stalwart or disruptive element?

Lastly, what would you call the new state?

1st off: is that a Latvian-Estonian union to the north?

2nd off: No, at best it's a second Austria.

3rd off: No there would be no blended identity.

4th off: The Baltic German shit disturbers would be a very disruptive element.

Now on a slight tangent, how about a Friekorps victory in the Baltic States giving the Prussian Junker establishment an alternative to accepting the republican reality in Berlin? A United Baltic Duchy from Danzig to Leningrad's doorstep.

 

[fasquardon]

But would the Masurians vote for German unification if they had the chance of being part of a new nation?

Absolutely! They were VERY pro-Prussian and pro-German.

Besides which, as a known factor in an uncertain time, staying in Germany would be preferable to becoming part of some new entity.

fasquardon

 

[Deleted member 94680]

1st off: is that a Latvian-Estonian union to the north?

Possibly in the original map (maybe at the time of publication the Latvians and Estonians hadn’t declared independence?) but not in the scenario. I’m asking purely about East Prussia - Lithuania.

Now on a slight tangent, how about a Friekorps victory in the Baltic States giving the Prussian Junker establishment an alternative to accepting the republican reality in Berlin? A United Baltic Duchy from Danzig to Leningrad's doorstep.

I can’t see the Entente allowing that to happen.

 

[Augenis]

What if in the aftermath of WWI, the Entente had merged East Prussia with Lithuania as part of the Treaty of Versailles?

The Lithuanians would receive a larger population, the Poles would be less likely to try revanchist schemes (or would they?) and the Soviets would see the new nation as less of an easy target.

Would the creation of the new state prevent German revanchism? Would a Prussian-Lithuanian identity emerge? Would Baltic Germans be a stalwart or disruptive element?

Lastly, what would you call the new state?

The Entente did not recognize the existence of Lithuania as a state during the time when Versailles was being drafted, and they would continue not recognizing it for years after the treaty was signed. Hence, they would not have done anything like that.

As for your other questions:

• No
• No
• There were no Baltic Germans anywhere in the borders of this state, save for a few barons who moved to Lithuania from the north during the Tsarist period, so again no

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The Entente did not recognize the existence of Lithuania as a state during the time when Versailles

That’s true, but the ‘idea’ of Lithuania certainly existed. I was suggesting a different Versailles that tries to address the problems of the collapsing Russian Empire.

There were no Baltic Germans anywhere in the borders of this state, save for a few barons who moved to Lithuania from the north during the Tsarist period, so again no

Were the Baltic Germans limited to a few nobles? I was under the impression that they were at least a decent-sized merchant and political group? A hundred or so thousand I thought.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I can’t see the Entente allowing that to happen.

Certainly, but they may well not be in a position to prevent it. The exhausted Entente powers had a pretty hard time influencing events east of Germany. In a TL where the war is an even closer call, with the Entente more exhausted and the Germans more entrenched in their eastern gains the Entente may well throw up their hands and drop the matter, as they did with the Russian Civil War.

 

[Help]

That’s true, but the ‘idea’ of Lithuania certainly existed. I was suggesting a different Versailles that tries to address the problems of the collapsing Russian Empire.


Were the Baltic Germans limited to a few nobles? I was under the impression that they were at least a decent-sized merchant and political group? A hundred or so thousand I thought.

About the Baltic Germans, they were limited to Latvia and Estonia, which the Teutonic Order had conquered. Lithuania, having never been ruled by the Order, would have little to no Baltic Germans.