Ottoman Empire & Austria-Hungary collapse naturally?

GameBawesome

GameBawesome

The Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary were partition after WWI by the Entente, creating the borders of the Middle East and Central & Eastern Europe.

Here are two PODs for this scenario

POD 1: What if the Germans won the Battle of the Marne, and captured Paris, and then going to defeat the Russians by 1915-1916, making WWI the short war people thought it was going to be. However, this doesn’t stop the collapse of the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, and after a generation, they collapse

POD 2: What if WW1 never happened? Franz Ferdinand never gets assassinated, and tensions eventually die down. However, despite Franz Ferdinand’s attempts for reforms, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire still collapse, due to nationalists and ethnic and religious divisions

With either of these two PODs, what would the borders be like if the the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary collapsed naturally, with no outside influence?
 

Wendell

I'm in the minority on this, but I think an Austro-Hungarian collapse in 1917 was possible or even likely without the war. The Turks may hold on though.
 
Sapa

Sapa

Banned
GameBawesome said:
POD 1: What if the Germans won the Battle of the Marne, and captured Paris, and then going to defeat the Russians by 1915-1916, making WWI the short war people thought it was going to be. However, this doesn’t stop the collapse of the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, and after a generation, they collapse
POD 2: What if WW1 never happened? Franz Ferdinand never gets assassinated, and tensions eventually die down. However, despite Franz Ferdinand’s attempts for reforms, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire still collapse, due to nationalists and ethnic and religious divisions
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Wendell said:
I'm in the minority on this, but I think an Austro-Hungarian collapse in 1917 was possible or even likely without the war. The Turks may hold on though.
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Here's a nice video explaining why the Ottomans actually were likely to survive if they'd just stayed out of WW1.
 
SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Joriz Castillo said:
Soviet Union & Yugoslavia would like to have a word with you.
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The USSR is an outlier. A strange case of a nation euthanizing itself.

Yugoslavia though I'd still chalk up to outside forces. Not so much forces trying to break the SFRY, so much as the sudden disappearance of the forces holding the SFRY together. Since its inception Yugoslavia's premise had been that only large nations are able to defend themselves. Initially the anticipated enemies were the Italians, Hungarians, and Bulgarians, after WWII this became even more important as the nation became the neutral border between the Soviet and American spheres. Then the Cold War ended and the great Democratic Peace fell upon Europe, and all the pressure within Yugoslavia was no longer cancelled out by pressures outside of Yugoslavia.
 
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Lemonfish

By naturally do you mean they peacefully dissolve themselves? If so than I don't think that's possible as both countries will likely use every possible way to cling on their territories.
 
GameBawesome

GameBawesome

Lemonfish said:
By naturally do you mean they peacefully dissolve themselves? If so than I don't think that's possible as both countries will likely use every possible way to cling on their territories.
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Peacefully, or violently. I’m curious to what borders looks like if Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans just collapsed in on themselves.
 
Sarthak

Sarthak

GameBawesome said:
POD 1: What if the Germans won the Battle of the Marne, and captured Paris, and then going to defeat the Russians by 1915-1916, making WWI the short war people thought it was going to be. However, this doesn’t stop the collapse of the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, and after a generation, they collapse
Click to expand...
GameBawesome said:
POD 2: What if WW1 never happened? Franz Ferdinand never gets assassinated, and tensions eventually die down. However, despite Franz Ferdinand’s attempts for reforms, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire still collapse, due to nationalists and ethnic and religious divisions
Click to expand...
austria hungary and ottomans were far too stable to collapse in peace or after a major victory.
 

BeardedHoplite

Absent WWI, it is highly unlikely that the Ottomans or Austria-Hungary will collapse

Arab nationalism was essentially invented by the British to fight the Ottomans, and without that the big stress points of holding onto the Arab territories is gone.

Austria-Hungary only collapsed after 4 years of hitherto unseen total war. Prior to the war everything was fairly rosy, with a stable government and a rapidly growing economy.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Wendell said:
I'm in the minority on this, but I think an Austro-Hungarian collapse in 1917 was possible or even likely without the war. The Turks may hold on though.
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Yes, the Ausgleich is up for renewal in 1917

IIRC there were problems in 1907, though the article I found on it won't let me read the damn thing
 
Sarthak

Sarthak

There is a misconception regarding the renewal of Augsleich in 1917. The only matters up for debate during the 'renewal' of the augsleich was monetary policy, electoral reform and regnal titles of the various archdukes and archduchesses. Discontinuing the union, foreign policy, military, economics etc weren't a part of it. The only thing different in the 1917 meeting would be that unlike the every decade monetary planning, it would also contain electoral reform plans and royalty changes from the cadet branches of the house of habsburg-lorraine. Nothing else. So believe me when i say i find that the '1917 augsleich renewal talks go south and war happens' trope very under-researched and far from the actual truth.
 
SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Grey Wolf said:
IIRC there were problems in 1907, though the article I found on it won't let me read the damn thing
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The problem in 1907 was that the Austrian parliament was in a constitutional crisis and unable to attend the negotiations. The Hungarian delegation opted to unilaterally renew the compromise as was with no amendments.

Which should make it clear how unimportant these renegotiations were...

edit: and in 1907 the Hungarian nationalist "48ers" were the ones in power, not the pro-compromise faction. That they couldn't find a way to exploit this opportunity to advance the cause of Hungarian independence should make it clear how unimportant these renegotiations were...
 
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NoMommsen

Sārthākā said:
There is a misconception regarding the renewal of Augsleich in 1917. The only matters up for debate during the 'renewal' of the augsleich was monetary policy, electoral reform and regnal titles of the various archdukes and archduchesses. Discontinuing the union, foreign policy, military, economics etc weren't a part of it. The only thing different in the 1917 meeting would be that unlike the every decade monetary planning, it would also contain electoral reform plans and royalty changes from the cadet branches of the house of habsburg-lorraine. Nothing else. So believe me when i say i find that the '1917 augsleich renewal talks go south and war happens' trope very under-researched and far from the actual truth.
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Sārthākā said:
Franz Ferdinand dropped his trinity crown plans in 1913.
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May I ask what are your sources on the "Ausgleich"-situastion A-H may have faced without war ?
Also for what Franz Ferdinands plan at lastactually were and how they changed over time ?

... or a recommended reading for these themes ?
(THX in advance)
 
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