Oh!
Ah....
Naturally, naturally.. Man I was freaked for a second there, fair play for the subversion!
North By Northwoods: A TLIAW
- Thread starter King of the Uzbeks
- Start date
John Lindsay
John Lindsay (D-NY)
John Lindsay was first elected to the House in 1958, and so gets a front-row seat to the unfolding collapse of the Nixon Administration. Lindsay is an early, and often, critic of Nixon. This is somewhat surprising as Lindsay is a Republican.
A liberal one, to be sure, and one who bucks the party on more than just the Northwood scandal. On most of the issues of the day, Lindsay stands to the left of his party.
But not for long. In June 1963, as news emerges that the Miami District Attorney considers events in Washington 'of interest' to the Black Thursday situation, Lindsay gives a speech on the House Floor. He lambasts Nixon and announces his defection to the Democrats. A few others will follow later on, but Lindsay is easily the most prominent as the first.
His announcement that he will seek the Democratic nomination for New York's Senate seat in 1964 comes as a surprise. Many dismiss him, he's too new, an ex-republican! No connections. And indeed the convention fight is difficult, but he manages to secure the Democratic line, and the Liberal one. His successful campaign against incumbent Republican Kenneth Keating rests on the simple fact that Keating is a Cold Warrior Republican in a year that is the worst time to be a Cold Warrior Republican. Wide margins in New York City propel him to the Senate.
Lindsay is mostly a party line Democrat in the Senate, as if trying to prove himself a worthy member. But he earns a reputation as a supporter of anti-poverty initiatives, as well as investment in the cities to combat racial injustice. His striking support of the Unions back home during Transit and Teachers strikes earns him some credit, although he remains a Silk Stocking District man to many. In 1970 he wins a comfortable reelection, although few tap him to be a Presidential contender.
But Lindsay is one of the few who have been following the primary reforms of late. The Republicans reform theirs after the 1968 fiasco. The Democratic ones hold less power, but they are now expanding rapidly, now a fully national affair.
Lindsay hits the ground early and often. New Hampshire. Wisconsin. Even Alaska. He runs on a continuation of the Just Deal, with an emphasis on justice and finishing the War on Poverty.
The only real competition he faces on the trail is Al Gore of Tennessee, a respectable Southerner. The heavy hitters, the Humphreys and the Kennedys and the like are more focused on conserving energy for the convention. But soon it becomes apparent that the energy from the primaries is becoming too loud to ignore. And Johnson is blocking the Kennedys and soon its Gore v Lindsay. And while Gore may be a respectable liberal Southerner, liberal northerners and the unions abandoning Humphrey's sinking campaign decide they like Lindsay.
Lindsay goes for party unity, and Gore graciously accepts the Vice Presidential nomination.
The ramshackle Lindsay Campaign managed to trundle through the primaries, but in truth it is woefully unprepared for the General election. Especially as the shiny Ronald Reagan Express rallies Goldwaterites and Independent Conservatives into the party, while keeping Moderates mostly in line.
Reagan smiles and waves and says all the right things at first. Stop the Disorder. Cut Taxes. America First. He opens up a firm lead.
But Lindsay keeps fighting and fighting. And he begins to gain ground. His honest yet appealing ads make waves, and he's able to land blows on Reagan for his opposition to a whole host of programs that are really quite popular.
And then comes the debate. The first since 1960. The former actor is obviously well polished, but Lindsay holds his own. And then Reagan slips up. He says more should have been done in the Congo. Lindsay asks if he means boots on the ground like Cuba. Reagan says yes, but only the good parts like stopping Communism, and not the bad parts like false flag attacks.
In truth, this opinion is not entirely outside the mainstream. But praising Cuba so openly is the third rail. And a New Yorker like Lindsay is familiar with third rails. Americans are asked to remember the last time a Conservative Californian was President.
It's a close-run thing, but Linsday does what many once thought to be impossible, and wins as a Democrat without the South. Even Florida falls narrowly.
And so Lindsay enters into the White House and gets to open with the funeral of Johnson, which proves a popularity-boosting affair.
He will learn to treasure those.
Many of his issues emerge from the Johnson era. The spike in inflation keeps up, and more and more Americans see it as a problem every passing day. Taxes that were raised during the Johnson years stay there, and many in middle America wonder why they need to be paid in the first place.
Some of the issues, however, are of his own making. Lindsay has never served in an executive office before and compared to the sleek Johnson machine his White House is haphazard and poorly organized. Nor is Lindsay a patient man, all things considered. He has an unfortunate tendency to ram his head into the wall when dealing with Congress
No man embodies this more than his fellow John, John Kennedy, who emerges as the leader of the moderate Democrats. Not Conservative Southerners of course, but those who place compromise at a premium. This is a time for consolidation, not further expansion. Commentators call it the Yankees-Red Sox feud with great mirth.
Lindsay is not entirely helpless, however. He successfully flanks Kennedy by producing a healthcare plan produced by Kennedy’s brother Edward. And they do manage to hammer out a deal on an income floor proposal. However, expanded environmental legislation largely falls through on account of the White House’s inability to talk shop with Congress effectively. Similar fates befall education and energy bills.
Abroad Americans begin to remember that they really really really do not like Communism. In Portuguese Africa and South America, Marxists seem to be advancing. South Vietnam falls to the reds, although amusingly Saigon and Hanoi seem unable to agree on which side of the Sino-Soviet Split. But Americans do not find it amusing.
The news is a little better in the Middle East. With Jordan embroiled in a Civil War between Palestinians and the Monarchy and Syria poking the nest, Egypt proves willing to come to the table. No recognition of course, but a swap back for the Sinai is in the cards. However, this is brokered more by the Soviet Union. The sight of world leaders shaking hands at Kuntsevo without Americans is disconcerting to many.
The midterms of 1974 are not historically disastrous, Democrats retain both houses. But they are a firm rebuke as Republicans and Conservative Democrats make gains. Lindsay’s domestic agenda stalls.
And at home, the question of Civil Rights lurks. The Just Deal has done good, but it has not cured evil. Bussing becomes the chosen method of the courts to desegregate schools. The white backlash is furious. Columbus and, embarrassingly for the President, New York see major rioting. Police brutality provokes backlash in Detroit and Newark as well. All against the backdrop of a rising crime rate. Lindsay points to continued racism and poverty and police failings, but Conservatives intone about law and order and supporting the working man by keeping him safe.
Lindsay’s personal touch in the face of adversity is frustratingly inconsistent. When Hurricane Alice hits New Orleans in 1974 he is praised for his response, helping to distribute supplies and providing a calm face to Louisiana. But his response to Edna slamming Pensacola in 1975 comes across as cool and aloof and uncaring to a devastated city. There is a sense that, a New Yorker through and through, he only cares about people and places with a certain value of “importantness.”
As the 1976 campaign heats up, however, attention turns back to foreign policy in a big way. Sukarno is dead and his three pillars of Indonesia turn on each other with a vengeance. The People’s Army of Indonesia battles the National Emergency Government battles the Muslim League, to say nothing of nationalist groups poking their heads up. The disruptions to international trade are significant, driving prices upward at the wost possible time. The Australians are especially concerned. It seems another domino may fall.
Something needs to be done, and Lindsay slips. A conference in Sri Lanka with the Chinese Premier to try and calm tensions seems like a good idea. But the snubbed USSR is furious and Conservatives talk of kowtowing in the most offensive, but politically effective, way possible. And the talks amount to nothing anyway.
The economy still rough, the streets uncalmed, and humiliated abroad, Lindsay runs the best he can. But it is not enough. After 12 years the Republicans are back, with an outsider candidate of heroic stature.
HHH's fate seems to be to be passed over in favor of a pretty face who doesn't actually accomplish anything because of an adversarial relationship with Congress no matter the timeline. At least he passed a good healthcare bill, and conservatism has been electorally discredited for a while.
I'm holding out hope for Edward Brooke as the first African-American US President. Most likely would be a one-termer though due to his scandals in the late '70s IOTL and other geopolitical and economic factors that led to Carter losing re-election IOTL.
Frank Borman
Frank Borman (R-IN)
Frank Borman is perhaps the least qualified person ever to be President. Other men without government experience have been President, but they have been generals before.
In 1950 he graduated from West Point. However he was quickly snatched up by the Air Force, which still lacked its own academy at this point. He earned his pilots wings, despite some ear issues, and soon moved onto being a test pilot. In 1962 he might have been shipped off to Cuba, had he not been plucked to join NASA's second class of Astronauts.
Working with the Gemeni Program Borman would first go to space in 1965 aboard Gemeni 7, featuring the first rendezvous in space. However the advent of the Joint USA-USSR moon landing project, threw his career off track.
Now begrudgingly working alongside Soviet Cosmonauts, Borman grumbles but continues. AS-3 in 1967 sees him part of the first joint crew to use the docking systems necessary. In the process becoming a notable face to the American public after a television appearance. Many note his professional, but decidedly cool, relations with his fellow Cosmonauts. Borman initially plans for this to be his last spaceflight, at twenty years in the air force he can claim a pension. But eventually he is talked into commanding the Big One.
Bering 1, as the mission is termed, pairs Borman with Cosmonaut Vladimir Shatalov as landing on the moon, while Michael Collins and Georgy Shonin remain in orbit.
The journey, intended as a symbol of peace and cooperation, winds up a tense one. Four people, chosen to balance, is likely one too many. There is also the fact that, at least from Borman's perspective, the Bering mission is made possible by American advancements. The Russians are just hitchhikers.
Borman nonetheless makes history on January 12, 1970, setting foot on the Oceanus Procellarum, becoming the first human ever to set foot on another celestial body. His words "A step for all mankind" will be etched into history.
However, prior to the return from the surface, Borman causes a major kerfuffle. On an international broadcast he reads from the Book of Genesis, in particular the story of creation. This obviously infuriates the Soviets, and some American atheists, but turns Borman into even more of a hero for many. Thankfully, there are no further incidents on the return trip.
Ticker tape parades and media accolades follow, with Borman taking the triumphant moment to depart from NASA. He already has a new job lined up.
Completing a quick business course at Harvard, Borman becomes a Vice President at the struggling Eastern Airlines. He brings a no frills, no waste approach to the job, eschewing company cars and drinks at lunch. He personally participates in searches for downed planes. By late 1975 he has become CEO of the whole company.
And he manages to help turn the company around, at least in the short term. It is still saddled with debt and the Unions are unhappy with his tendencies towards cost cutting via salary freezes and cuts. But still, the company is looking good on the surface, which is mighty impressive to many.
Also in 1975, he emerges again into the American psyche after the Eagle disaster. The first American Space Station, the Eagle, suffers a sudden decompression, killing Deke Slayton and Thomas P. Stafford. Borman is named to the Glenn Commission investigating the disaster. He earns praise for his hard work identifying the faulty airlock responsible, and his harsh criticism of the Lindsay appointed NASA leadership.
And so, perhaps inevitably, whispers begin to swirl about Borman For President. He is, it is known, mildly Republican. He has the vague conservatism of a career soldier without service in Cuba raising suspicion of him. And he has served in a major American business. But nor is he an insider politician. He's a hero and like most astronauts, has a modicum of public relations skills.
It takes some convincing to get him to run. It deprives Eastern of his leadership, and Borman has never really given any thought to politics, let alone the Presidency. But the chaos of the Lindsay years convince him to run.
Convincing the Republican Electorate actually proves less difficult than getting the candidate himself into the race. He's got name recognition, all of it positive. The business interests that play with candidates like the gods play with the trojan war care less about his time in space and more about his time in a boardroom. And he's enough of an unknown that anyone can project anything onto him. The religious right is perhaps the least enthusiastic. But he did read the bible on the moon, so there is that. Laxalt can try, but in the end Borman sweeps his way to victory.
With Robert Griffith, a solidly conservative Senator from Michigan, as his running mate, Borman turns on to face President Lindsay.
Borman takes a no nonsense approach. Crime? Crack down on it. Especially drugs. No one ever became an astronaut on drugs. Well, probably.
Borman is no hawk, he assures the nation. But nor does he want to see Communism spread victorious. Look at what happened in Finland and Vietnam while America looked inward. Surely this great prosperous nation could afford to spend a little to help freedom fighters in Indonesia.
He won't tear down the Just Deal, just make it sleeker, leaner, more efficient. An Eisenhower figure. Everyone likes Eisenhower, it's easy to throw all the nasty information about what he did away. The nation wants to like a Republican, and Eisenhower is the only viable candidate. And now Frank Borman is as well.
Yes he isn't experienced, but hasn't America had enough of insiders? Nixon's crimes, Johnson's bullying, Lindsay's chaos? Borman is a common sense man for a common sense nation.
An already floundering Lindsay campaign struggles against a bonafide national hero. Their most damaging, and perhaps prescient, attacks rest on showing Borman as an empty suit, a puppet of those same forces that tricked America into Cuba. But waving the Bloody Shirt is no longer as effective as it once was. And Americans still remember the crowds who cheered across the world for Borman.
Lindsay’s last hope is the debate, which saved him last time. But Borman, while no great orator, avoids any costly slipups.
His victory is wide, and presents him with a mandate to govern, although he will have to work with a Democratic Congress to do so.
Borman’s post-lunar experience has been in business, and his political lodestar is Eisenhower. So there are a lot of business minded technocrats in his cabinet and White House. Borman is conscientious in his work and sets about crafting his policies.
Part one is a fairly generous tax cut. The businessmen amongst his coalition appreciate this for obvious reasons on a personal and ideological level. But he is able to garner support for this move from more traditional Keynesian corners as well. The economy is good, let it soar.
His spending cuts find less success, welfare reform is not yet ripe for most voters, and their representatives know it. Borman’s inexperience also plays into this. The Congressmen on the Hill know when something is beat, and urge him to relent. Borman pushes forward. What is the point of cutting revenue without cost cutting…but he winds up stymied and having damaged his relations with certain key leaders. However Borman, for all his military discipline, is adaptable. They don't select astronauts who can't react to changing situations. Borman will work hard to repair frayed relationships, which earns him some modicum of respect in Washington.
Abroad, Borman leads America into sticking their head out of the hole they dug after Northwoods. He is cautious as he does so. People are still a bit…twitchy about foreign entanglements. Borman allays this somewhat by making sure everything is above the board. Well, not everything. DoI Operations still has some irons in the fire, so to speak. But Borman is open to Congress about major shifts in policy.
One such shift is the Indonesian Civil War. The Civil War in Indonesia is a multi headed hydra, to say the least, spread out across thousands of islands. No one is entirely sure who is merely cut off from their faction, who is a warlord grabbing what they can, and who are nationalists trying to break away completely. Which is particularly where the Americans come in.
One, the Americans diplomatically arrange for various factions tied to the military and religious groups to reunite, if loosely. The TeReAm (Tentara Republik Islam) finally provides an answer to the PKI’s organization.
Two, the Americans provide the Teream with arms and money. And money and arms. And training to use said arms, and markets to spend said money. Borman is able to convince Congress that this is needed to stop Communism from spreading further South.
Three, the United States Navy begins asserting the rights of international waters in Southeast Asia very closely. Very very closely. And if that winds up being a de facto convoy system for American allies, and makes it impossible for the PKI to support itself between islands? Well that's just the cost of doing business.
Borman never tries to get Congress to approve American advisors joining the Australians on the ground in Indonesia, but he still sets up American allies for success. And if the cost is a few massacres and atrocities in some random hamlets, he can live with that. And the American people can live with that. Partially because Americans aren't directly involved.
At home, Borman’s “Common Sense Conservativism” manifests itself in a broadly deregulatory manner. This sees more support than his welfare initiatives do. He is hands off about airline deregulation, well aware that his Eastern Airlines connections could have created a sense of impropriety. He's more actively involved in loosening land use regulations out in the West that favor ranchers, miners, and oil men.
Borman is, unsurprisingly, enthusiastic about NASA. Eagle Station is started during his term, and will be America’s base in space for decades to come. Borman, for all his distaste for the Soviets, does not completely draw back from cooperation. After the Mir disaster, where American astronauts were helpless to save their asphyxiating Soviet counterparts, he agrees to a mutual sharing of information regarding life support systems to encourage saving lives.
All of this success of course has a seedy underbelly. Inequality rises for the first time in years. The Conservative backlash to Civil Rights enters into the sunlight. Martin Luther King Jr. laments this “age of complacency” coming into being.
But most people are very happy to have Frank Borman after four years of his Presidency.
A result is that Democrats are not exactly tripping over themselves to run against him. Former Vice President Gore declines to run. The few primaries that they have scatter between favorite sons and folks like George McGovern or a “repentant” George Wallace. Neither of whom can be allowed to win at the convention, per the party mandarins. A somewhat humiliating hurricane of chaos follows that turns into a farce when Massachusetts Senator Bobby Kennedy and Massachusetts Governor Ted Kennedy are both brought up by different factions independently as compromise candidates. Teddy, who always had the best nose for politics, concedes to his elder. John, now teaching at Harvard, reportedly finds this hilarious. Looking to his left flank Kennedy goes with Fred Harris of Oklahoma as his running mate. Everyone agrees to just let primaries decide this thing from here on out, a lesson Republicans have learned for a while.
Kennedy/Harris is running behind from the start, and never really has a chance to catch up. Kennedy is charismatic enough but fails to provide a raison d’etre for his campaign. Borman comes in with a huge war chest from his business buddies, bigger than the Kennedy fortune and union dues can match. And people are generally happy with the way things are going, and they know who to give credit to.
Borman’s landslide is impressive, surpassing even Eisenhower’s in scale.
Borman's second term is more of the same from a policy perspective. Moderate tax cuts, a generally loose application of regulations. Land and mineral rights are leased out to private industry. Third rails are skirted, save actual third rails as Borman’s second term sees the creation of a Federal Department of Transportation to help encouragement of air, road, and rail shipping among other things, albeit from a business development perspective.
The cultural exploration of the 60s is now firmly in the rearview mirror. Programs such as the “Fred Thompson Show” reflect and reinforce standard family dynamics. Crime and health become prevalent, and intertwined, issues. Heroin his the streets en masse as a result of heightened poppy production in an increasingly unstable Southeast Asia. This epidemic hits at the worst possible time, coinciding with the arrival of HIV in the United States. The result is a massive outbreak among drug users, especially along the East coast. Sympathy is low for victims, who are often derided as criminals. The Boston 8 become a sensation as they allege their infections were a result of homosexual activity rather than drug use, taking advantage of Massachusetts’ sodomy laws being laxxer than it's drug laws.
The spike in heroin production is largely a result of the outbreak of the Great Indochinese War. The Communist Vietnamese-Cambodian-Laotian Confederacy faces off against the alliance of the Burmese and Thai Juntas. Both sides, desperate for cash, embrace drug cultivation. Both sides receive support from the expected sides of the Cold War, as well as the Indonesian Civil War. Although the PKI is beginning to crumble under the weight of American aid to the Teream.
In Africa, coups and counter coups remain the order of the day, with America easing back into the role of sponsor. Post-Northwoods reluctance has left them on the backfoot. France, therefore, is enlisted as America’s chief enforcer in the region. The pré carré is recognized in Washington, so long as the French keep their clients broadly in line with American interests. Elf brand gas stations are also beginning to pop up in North America. American consumers also benefit from friendly Arab regimes, who want to counterbalance an Israel that is increasingly looking towards Moscow for aid.
Borman is not immune from the six year itch, however. His last two years are somewhat more constrained than his first. Republicans, 12 years out of power, also gorge themselves on some of the spoils of victory. This leads to a few inopportune scandals. Take Watergatewoods, where GOP chairman Dick Cheney is caught taking bribes from the Watergate Hotel to relocate the party headquarters there. Northwoods syndrome is fading, but the reputation of the Republicans as the “dirty” party is harder to shake.
Borman himself remains above the fray, but in some ways that only compounds the party’s woes. His personal popularity does not flow downwards to the party writ large. Prospective candidates struggle to link themselves to his legacy. Massachusetts Governor Elliot Richardson eventually emerges as the pick of the bunch, after the primaries, but he fails to catch the public imagination. Especially in comparison to the young gun the Democrats put up.
Frank Borman will enjoy his time as ex-President. The respectable voice of an era of prosperity. The Grand Old Man of the Grand Old Party. An advocate for innovation in partnership with business and for responsible, active foreign policy. Although he does not go back into business, he is proud to see Eastern Airlines emerge to dominate the industry in years to come. He will not pass until 2022, and his state funeral will feature speakers from both parties, and all living former Presidents, in addition to the incumbent.
Huh. It's a nice surprise to see such a subversion. Usually when a post starts off with "So and so was the least qualified man ever to be president" you expect an absolute flaming wreckage of a term. But you played with that quite nicely. Surrounding oneself with people who are experienced and just having the blind good luck to be in power during an era of domestic prosperity that has little to do with anything you've actually done can go a long way. I would not be surprised if Frank Boreman is seen by most as one of the best US presidents in history, just slightly below the greats like Lincoln and Roosevelt.
Nice to see this back. Also love the little touch of ‘-woods’ being the equivalent to OTL’s ‘-gate’ for scandals.
Watched!
Would be great to see more on how Northwoods basically moving Vietnam/Watergate Syndrome ahead by a decade impacts the course of the Cold War and the broader world stage? Is there an earlier detente or anything like that?
Would be great to see more on how Northwoods basically moving Vietnam/Watergate Syndrome ahead by a decade impacts the course of the Cold War and the broader world stage? Is there an earlier detente or anything like that?
Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton (D-AR)
Bill Clinton is not on anyone's list to win the Presidency in 1984. At just 38 years old it is literally the first election cycle he is eligible for the office. He's been Governor of Arkansas for eight years, yes. But electing a Democrat in Arkansas is hardly surprising. Even as the South shifts right, the Land of Opportunity is reliably red on a local level regardless of who it supports for President. So while his youth when elected was notable, he is hardly pegged as a standout electoral prospect.
Clinton, however, does have a few advantages. One was a media savvy and a willingness to play to the camera. Clinton is always available with a sound bite on whatever issue was pressing on the minds of Americans. No matter the issue, Clinton has you covered. He's muscled himself into being the face of the “New, Post Racial” South, quick to point out the record number of women and minorities he's appointed to state government. So quick he gets on the cover of TIME magazine. Just don't ask about the harassment. Tax reform? He has an opinion. Welfare? He'll talk to the press. His foreign policy credentials are limited, but he is a Rhodes Scholar and he pens an Op-Ed about Agricultural cooperation in Africa that is well received politically if not academically.
Nor is Clinton accused of ignoring his state in pursuit of national glory. As the economy soars, he shares in the credit with Borman. Clinton is fine with that, being bipartisan is a nice look. He prides himself on being the “Get-Things Done Governor.” New roads, new schools, tax cuts. You name it, he's got it. Arkansas may not have won the bid to build a Particle Accelerator, but he got their name out there, didn't he?
Probably his most iconic moment is in early 1984, when he rushes the field at the end of the Sugar Bowl to embrace the Razorbacks’ black quarterback as they clinch the national title over a heavily favored and still pretty segregated LSU team. So by the time he opens his campaign “Little Bill” is a fairly prominent face as far as governors go on the national stage.
But that doesn't mean he's nationally known more than his frontrunner opponents are. Mo Udall is a titan in the halls of the Senate, and George McGovern is the Dean of Foreign Policy. But they are both old now, bleh. And Clinton brings an outsider appeal to the race, one that reminds people of what people like about Frank Borman. “I'll take backcountry mud over Washington mud,” says one voter. He's just young and new and stands out on stage for that fact. Plus he's a relative moderate, who is not going to tell people he's raising taxes. The name of everyone's lips is “Kennedy,” no, not the old tired Bobby who ran four years ago and got shellacked into next Sunday. The handsome, charming John of 1960, the nice young boy who wouldn't have caused trouble in Cuba if he had won.
So Bill Clinton wins the nomination, and selects George McGovern as his running mate to provide some age, foreign policy experience, and regional diversity to his ticket.
Clinton faces off against Elliott Richardson, the lawyerly old hand from Massachusetts. The Southern Democrat against the New England Republican. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Clinton's primary campaign translates to a modern and mobilized general election one. Bright and spots about the vigorous future America has under his watch. Party elders grumble that he seems to be mentioning himself more than the party, but it is hard to deny his charisma and capacity for glad handing. The attacks against Richardson are judicious but hard hitting. A lifetime politician, a man who has spent a career in the muck. A dangerous sort of Conservative who lacks any real vision for the country.
In a new innovation, there will be three debates. One town hall, one traditional, and one for the VP candidates. Clinton manages to sweep all three, he just pops more than Richardson, with his easy smile. One voter at the town hall goes off script and asks about his saxophone. McGovern manages to come across as the wise professor against Pete Wilson’s misbehaving student.
The result is a thumping for the GOP and a return to power for the Democrats after years in the political wilderness. Clinton becomes the youngest elected President, and indeed the youngest President ever.
He enters office with a mandate and majorities in Congress, but ultimately has a light First 100 Days, focusing on a few regulatory matters and tax loophole closing. That summer he pushes for a major infrastructure investment. This does include lots of highways, unfortunately, but it also does include some generous subsidies for rail both nationwide and local.
The trouble for Clinton starts aboard, in Peru. Leftist guerillas have been building up power in South America for years, and in August they come pouring out of the mountains, overrunning Lima. The good news for the Peruvians is that the insane Maoist Faction is purged, but the bad news is that the new regime is still quick and brutal in setting itself up as the new power, and a stream of Peruvian refugees exits the country.
Clinton, a student of Post-Northwoods Democratic foreign policy, condemns the violence, allows refugees and embargoes weapons from the regime. Unfortunately for Clinton, this is out of step with the national mood. An American nation has fallen to Communism, and the President seems to have greeted it with a half-hearted shrug. No one wants another Cuba, well, most people still don't want another Cuba. But Communism remains unpopular beyond belief in the United States. The President needs to be seen as doing something. At least the PKI is on its last legs in the jungles of Borneo, although there is no definitive moment of defeat to package and sell to the American people.
Clinton's fortunes really start to disappear with Black January. A failed attempt to corner the Silver Market spirals into a record breaking terrible day for the stock market. Then the next day the commodities market takes a huge hit when the Soviet Union announces an increase in grain production over the coming years. Add into that bad harvests over the past few years and suddenly the nation’s farming system is in the worst crisis since the Dust Bowl. A hard, sharp, recession hits the country, as debt industries deregulated by Borman collapse, adding to the cacophony of January.
Clinton's response to to Recession of ‘86 is pressed in different directions. On one hand, there is the traditional Democratic Party. Big government, expand the welfare state, stimulate the economy, etc etc. But then Clinton ran as a Democrat not like those other Democrats, beholden to the Union bosses and intellectuals. An efficient government for busy people. Debt hawkery is also on the rise, especially in the halls of Congress. And the Recession has put increased strain on the nation’s social safety nets.
Clinton is also quickly learning that Congress is a much savvier beasts than the Arkansas legislature. Washington is a lion’s den, Little Rock more an ocelot’s. Clinton's initial backroom proposals are met with little support from either side of the aisle. A young man's vigor is unable overcome the brick walls of Committee Chairs.
The eventual bill, brokered by Vice President McGovern, is something of a mess even once the negotiations are finished. It does produce some genuinely helpful programs via tax credits, while also closing some tax and welfare loopholes to ensure revenue neutrality over time. There is also plenty of investment, although largely directed to businesses rather than communities and individuals. The pork is enough to get it through. The problem is that the Relief and Recovery Act of 1986 comes too late, and is a difficult sell to voters. It's a technocratic, tinkering, thing, filled to the brim with jargon. It's not impossible to sell, but Clinton fails to do so anyway.
The midterms are…not great for Bill Clinton. The Senate is lost and the Conservative coalition is back in the House, even if the Dems still hold on technically. Relations with Congress, never great, become outright stormy once the new Congress comes in.
The recession bottoms out in mid-1987, but recovery proved agonizingly slow. The industrial heartland is particularly hard hit, companies hitting the bricks and heading overseas. The farm crisis continues. Recovery is the fastest in the suburbs, which Republicans are quick to trumpet. The sluggish rebuilding hangs over everything Clinton faces from here on out.
There are other issues now as well. Clinton, still only in his early 40s, remains unmarried. Republicans are quick to circulate nasty rumors that he is gay, which is false. In fact, Clinton has several relationships over his time in the White House. At the start of his administration this was something of a fun novelty. Celebrity gossip around the President. But the charm has worn off. In this time of economic hardship it all feels very fiddling while Rome burns. Not to mention the fact that rumors abound that he is sleeping with women who he is not even dating at the time. Moral guardians hate every single thing about this.
The question of public morality will continue to be an issue for years. The Borman era saw the end of the boundary pushing of thqe 60s and early 70s but Clinton, that slick young modernist, now finds himself in an era of moral panics. The Minneapolis “Pink Schools” panic of 1986 sends homophobia through the roof throughout the Midwest, as public schools are accused of training students to be gay. No evidence exists because it's completely made up, but anti-Gay legislation is passed in over half the states.
The recession sees a rise in crime, most infamously in October 1987 when Congressman Mike DeWine is shot in the stomach during a mugging outside a DC restaurant. He lives, but it does recenter the national conversation around an issue Clinton is ill prepared to deal with. The continued rise in drug usage also sparks fears about police inadequacy, marking a spike in funding.
In 1988, this combines with a hot summer to produce the worst rioting since the 60s, as Black and Latino communities push back against beatings, shootings, clearances, and other police overreaches. The riots of 1988 are typically associated with the growing Sunbelt cities. Dallas, Houston, San Diego, Miami, Phoenix, although Chicago and Baltimore are also hard hit.
Clinton has largely hoped to be a ‘post-racial’ President, but his hopes go up in smoke. His party is unable to produce a coherent response torn between the old South and progressive voices.
Clinton does not face any serious primary challengers, despite the situation. However this does not mean he is not bleeding support badly.
On his right many in the South have already voted for Republicans for President. Sure voting against a Dixie Boy is tough, and different than voting against a Yankee like Lindsey or Kennedy, but maybe it needs to be done. On his left the Racial Inequality Stops Everywhere movement actually runs a ticket against him, headed by Jesse Jackson. Jackson wins nothing in the electoral college, but he will force the Clinton campaign to spend money fighting for DC’s votes which is humiliating in its own right.
Clinton fights a valiant rearguard action, performing well in the debates against his Republican opponent, glad handing across the nation. But his reputation has gone from “shining young star” to “playboy in over his head” and he is unable to shake that image despite his best efforts. The October Surprise does not break in his favor, as Communist forces break the stalemate and overrun the Khorat Plateau. Most Americans have no idea what that is, but it sure sounds bad.
When his loss finally comes Clinton concedes gracefully, and flies home to Little Rock. He will at times consider a return to politics, either as Governor or as a Senator, but never quite manages to pull the trigger. He lives there still, ranked as a failed President.
I am thinking it is time for a female President. What is Ann Richards doing in this TLIAW?
Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kay_A._Orr
Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kay_A._Orr