No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Prince-President eh?
*Looks at my signature*
I already like this guy!

He's so cool he deserves an oscar!

Also yeah, whales dont grow from dead trees
Unlike our oily boi
So rip our fatty smelly lamps, you wont be missed

And lets welcome our new eldricht economic monarch!
The highly inflamable cadaver of life that totally wont turn the planet into a human oven in a century or two!
 
Prince-President eh?
*Looks at my signature*
I already like this guy!

He's so cool he deserves an oscar!

Also yeah, whales dont grow from dead trees
Unlike our oily boi
So rip our fatty smelly lamps, you wont be missed

And lets welcome our new eldricht economic monarch!
The highly inflamable cadaver of life that totally wont turn the planet into a human oven in a century or two!
Strange as it may sound, this was all (except for, so far, delayed coup in France) OTL and I did not even have to change the dates, just names. 😜
 
Well heres the new map of Europe and the world after the swap.

View attachment 786652

View attachment 786656

Gnerally beside Prusso-Swedish land swap i added some new facts like NZ being Swedish colony and Spain having Oregon (Given that there was the treaty betwen them and the British).

Otherwise as said before north American borders are still left in the air by this timeline , like for example is Florida sold, or not?

Yes, I sold it (was in a generous mode, you know). 😂
Weather there was a War with US, or further purchse of land , or the treaty between US and Spain. Weather Spain is developing Oregon (deal with the British specifies development of Oregon, otherwise Spanish claim can be questioned ) etc.

In OTL something like 2,000,000 (or more) Irish migrated. If at least half of them ends South of the border where they are getting a better treatment, plus some sizable German migration, then these areas will be adequately populated by the people who have no sympathy to Britain and no connections to the US.

Regarding the British, by this point given their relative isolation from European politics and no British NZ and South Africa they should have more colonies, i would say Madagascar and maybe those small lands around Natal in Southeastern Africa, or horn of Africa . It would play nicely in securing the route to India and Australia .
Madagascar, surely. But it will take years. No Horn of Africa: it would put the Brits in a too advantageous position when Suez canal is done. So, if they are trying to do so, they are facing international opposition and may end up losing some of their positions on the Med or. elsewhere.

Otherwise Prussia is more or less securing Russian backing (Blank Check) for their plans for N. Germany, or maybe they will do otl and kick Austria from HRE while securing the title of the emperor for themselves together with N.Germany? Seems like reasonable decision really , get N. German federation and lose dominion of S. Germany via HRE (this would also be logical upgrade of already exsisting status).

Yes, NG seems reasonable but what is “NG”? In OTL, Saxony and Hanover were fighting on Austrian side.

Also Russia is making indoors towards China. I wonder will century of humiliation for China be lessend some way?But anyway i see Russia benefiting long term if it manages to strike Ottoman like relations with China.
The “Ottoman-like” relations may be not a very good idea. 1st, the Turks never had the Chinese level xenophobia. 2nd, in OTL when Russian Empire was their ally, they still were not friendly in any meaningful way (look at their position during the RJW). 3rd, agreements or not, trade with China remained a tricky issue (there were Russian complaints on a subject). 4th, alliance with China soon enough will mean bad relations with Japan.

Witte was planning something along the lines you proposed. His grand schema turned out to be a very expensive economic failure before RJW, a military disaster which triggered a massive unrest in Russia and then a need to build up a new segment of the TransSib which was not fully functional by 1914 causing problems with the supplies from the US and Japan.

The only economically meaningful piece for Russia is, roughly speaking, modern Xinjiang but Dzungaria (with Kashgar) is already Russian and opened to exploiting its natural resources. Russian merchants can benefit from the open trade along the Amur and in the ports but there is no need to get into the closer relations involving any obligations. In other words, government have to stay out except, perhaps, sponsoring something like “Russian-Chinese Bank” to simplify the commercial operations (in OTL absence of such an institution forced to use the British services and pay big commissions).

But the most important thing is that the Russian merchants had very little interest in trade with China (except for the tea import and opium export): it was much easier to make profit on the manufactured goods trading within the Russian Empire. The economic part of Witte’s grand plan was based on an inadequate research and wishful thinking.
 
In OTL something like 2,000,000 (or more) Irish migrated. If at least half of them ends South of the border where they are getting a better treatment, plus some sizable German migration, then these areas will be adequately populated by the people who have no sympathy to Britain and no connections to the US.
Yea that makes sense, what about Oregon though? Otl Spain was ready to give it up , so could we see it being sold as well, or do you plan to keep US out of pacific?
Yes, NG seems reasonable but what is “NG”? In OTL, Saxony and Hanover were fighting on Austrian side.
Yea them joining Prussia significantly changes the game, not to mention Baden being mentioned to be pro Russian and bordering France, it could be intersting .

R.png


This is the map of HRE after Treaty of luneville and Imperial deputation and this is current map of Europe ITTL.
drawing-3.svg


Now if we assue that you will go for two state solution i can assume that Prussia would probably like to connect all its Western conclaves and Rhur to the Sea , if we add some bonus to Hanover and Saxony we could get something like this:
drawing-4.svg


Baden could also get some clay so it goes along French border (i could see it retaining its independence if it sees the light of reason).

Otherwise Württemberg and southern part of Bavaria could potentially go for closer union with Austria so at the end we get something like this.
drawing-5.svg
 
Yea that makes sense, what about Oregon though? Otl Spain was ready to give it up , so could we see it being sold as well, or do you plan to keep US out of pacific?

Did not think about this but cutting us (the US) from the Pacific is an interesting idea (the west coast is being blue, anyway 😂 ) because this makes a huge POD, which I don’t fully know, yet, how to exploit in a meaningful way.

The first obvious question for the case it is left Spanish, is what it is going to be? A separate part of the Spanish empire (population is going to be a problem) or a part of alt-Mexico On Steroids populated predominantly by the Irish and German immigrants? Any proposals?

The rest … well, Russian Alaska, limited American influence on the Pacific, probably different US demographics, etc. Not sure if I’m ready to handle all that stuff.

Yea them joining Prussia significantly changes the game, not to mention Baden being mentioned to be pro Russian and bordering France, it could be intersting .

View attachment 787217

This is the map of HRE after Treaty of luneville and Imperial deputation and this is current map of Europe ITTL.
View attachment 787224

Now if we assue that you will go for two state solution

Not necessarily. It can be alt-Prussian/German empire incorporating NG as the member states on the conditions close to OTL, plus Hapsburg Empire (Austria, Czechia), plus few mid-sized independent states absorbing the small entities (a la Nappy) and allied to Prussian or Hapsburg Empire. Prerequisite for their survival is that they are not on the way to consolidation and can be useful as the buffers between the Great Entities (France, Prussia, Austria).
i can assume that Prussia would probably like to connect all its Western conclaves and Rhur to the Sea , if we add some bonus to Hanover and Saxony we could get something like this: View attachment 787226

Baden could also get some clay so it goes along French border (i could see it retaining its independence if it sees the light of reason).

Otherwise Württemberg and southern part of Bavaria could potentially go for closer union with Austria so at the end we get something like this.
Wurttemberg ITTL is closely linked to Russia and, with no earlier Russian-Austrian alliance, it is reasonably for its ruler to align with Prussia either as an “independent” allied state or as a state-member of the alt-German Empire. We can probably assume that Bavaria may side with Austria for the balance sake but also end up as a state-member, with some minor territories added to it and Wurttemberg (and Baden) as a moral compensation for a need to be subordinated to a relative parvenue like Hohenzollern.

Probably Saxony, with or without the territorial cuts, can retain independence as a buffer state but Hanover is on the way to a meaningful consolidation of NG with all related consequences: just as Mecklenburg, it has to end up as a member-state of a new German Empire.

View attachment 787227
 


Did not think about this but cutting us (the US) from the Pacific is an interesting idea (the west coast is being blue, anyway 😂 ) because this makes a huge POD, which I don’t fully know, yet, how to exploit in a meaningful way.

The first obvious question for the case it is left Spanish, is what it is going to be? A separate part of the Spanish empire (population is going to be a problem) or a part of alt-Mexico On Steroids populated predominantly by the Irish and German immigrants? Any proposals?

The rest … well, Russian Alaska, limited American influence on the Pacific, probably different US demographics, etc. Not sure if I’m ready to handle all that stuff.



Not necessarily. It can be alt-Prussian/German empire incorporating NG as the member states on the conditions close to OTL, plus Hapsburg Empire (Austria, Czechia), plus few mid-sized independent states absorbing the small entities (a la Nappy) and allied to Prussian or Hapsburg Empire. Prerequisite for their survival is that they are not on the way to consolidation and can be useful as the buffers between the Great Entities (France, Prussia, Austria).

Wurttemberg ITTL is closely linked to Russia and, with no earlier Russian-Austrian alliance, it is reasonably for its ruler to align with Prussia either as an “independent” allied state or as a state-member of the alt-German Empire. We can probably assume that Bavaria may side with Austria for the balance sake but also end up as a state-member, with some minor territories added to it and Wurttemberg (and Baden) as a moral compensation for a need to be subordinated to a relative parvenue like Hohenzollern.

Probably Saxony, with or without the territorial cuts, can retain independence as a buffer state but Hanover is on the way to a meaningful consolidation of NG with all related consequences: just as Mecklenburg, it has to end up as a member-state of a new German Empire.

View attachment 787227

Yea now when I think about it it generally does make sense for Prussia to just go for exclusion of Austria from German affairs and formation of German Empire (somewhat more decentralized with Prussia consolidating N. Germany, King of Hanover could probably be compensated somewhere else, maybe those lands on the south that i added to Hanover?).

Otherwise why not include Saxony as member state? And add it some lands as compensation?
 




Yea now when I think about it it generally does make sense for Prussia to just go for exclusion of Austria from German affairs and formation of German Empire (somewhat more decentralized with Prussia consolidating N. Germany, King of Hanover could probably be compensated somewhere else).

Otherwise why not include Saxony as member state? And add it some lands as compensation?
No problem with both: they can become the member-states.

But what about the Pacific coast? You brought it up so probably you have some ideas.
 
The United States without exit to the Pacific sounds interesting.
I suppose that Oregon in New Spain would be the best, at this point Mexico is the second country with the highest immigration on the continent and perhaps the focus of Catholic migration.
 
Something I just noticed is that all viceroyalties are like the best version of themselves.
New Spain (Mexican Empire), Nicaragua (Central American Republic), New Granada (Great Colombia), Peru (Peru-Bolivia), La Plata and Chile.
They have the advantage of not having regional conflicts, civil wars and without secessionist problems.
 
No problem with both: they can become the member-states.

But what about the Pacific coast? You brought it up so probably you have some ideas.

For one it would deprive the US from ports in the Pacific that are significant for trade with China and pacific island's which would hurt it's development long term, otherwise loss of resources will be felt as well, then if we want to go into the details demographically Asian (Chinese and Japanese) immigration into the united states will be lesser , to nonexistent as they were used as cheap labor for railroad construction in west coast (most of European settlers arrived at east coast, so that shouldn't change) . Other important fact is that lack of west coast will naturally effect immigration and railroad construction (all those Gold rushes, ability to trade with Asia and other Industries, plus resources made entire thing profitable and attractive for settler's and big business, plus lot of free land, less free land means less immigration to US, not to mention creation of transcontinental railway made more sense when you have economic centers at other end of the rail, basically without west coast US interior is lot less populous and developed). Generally i would say that rail construction should go somewhat slower towards the west and interior.

But beside all those details, the elephant in the room is ultimately Spanish ability to hold those lands and resist US for long. While Manifest destiny was written by certain reporter idea to go west was floated by Thomas Jefferson and was seen as necessary for " American Liberty ", so it forming in Manifest destiny and some form of Monroe doctrine is inevitable really (but to make it clear British did more to uphold the doctrine than the US at the start as US had small army and navy).

Then there's fact that US was ready to go to war with the British over Oregon, so i don't see them backing down against Spain

But once again to draw the line with comments above , US settler's can be delt with and kept at bay via Irish, German and other Catholic settler's keeping the border in exchange for free land , things really started getting hot after transcontinental railroad was completed.

Other important thing is that Spain probably doesn't want to give US the Pacific coast if it plans to keep rest of it, once US has pacific port it will want more and if it builds a railroad and gets a big settlement in the east there's little Spain can do to defend rest of it's possessions from US encroachment given difference in development(i would say it's the domino effect) , not to mention Spain can benefit from being intermediary between US and Asia .

Otherwise regarding administration, yea Oregon will be under administration of New Spain as Louisiana was .

As for how could Spain be able to hold of the US? Well best option would be to involve France (i remember saying that France has an interest in maintaining Spanish empire in return for trade concessions).

Generally France should be able to fend off US relatively easy until Spain can stand on it's own two feet's as east coast is appropriately settled , division in the US will do the rest.
 
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For one it would deprive the US from ports in the Pacific that are significant for trade with China and pacific island's which would hurt it's development long term, otherwise loss of resources will be felt as well,

I read somewhere that CA gold rush gave a big boost to the US development providing a big reserve of gold, massive settlement, railroad construction, etc. If alt-Mexico is not suffering from most of OTL problems then at least some of these benefits still may happen.

then if we want to go into the details demographically Asian (Chinese and Japanese) immigration into the united states will be lesser , to nonexistent as they were used as cheap labor for railroad construction in west coast (most of European settlers arrived at east coast, so that shouldn't change) . Other important fact is that lack of west coast will naturally effect immigration and railroad construction (all those Gold rushes, ability to trade with Asia and other Industries, plus resources made entire thing profitable and attractive for settler's and big business, plus lot of free land, less free land means less immigration to US, not to mention creation of transcontinental railway made more sense when you have economic centers at other end of the rail, basically without west coast US interior is lot less populous and developed). Generally i would say that rail construction should go somewhat slower towards the west and interior.

But if the west (pacific coast) is Spanish, then it is not up to the US to construct the RR on other country’s territory. And Spanish/Mexican government may have different plan to such a RR (for example, it may go south-east to the rest of Mexico). BTW, they may still import the Chinese by exactly the same reason.

OTOH, the US interior may get more settlers so there would be more RRs even if differently configured.
But beside all those details, the elephant in the room is ultimately Spanish ability to hold those lands and resist US for long.

Yeah, this is the problem. The US kept growing as the industrialized country and Mexico is not too much so even now and the same goes for most of Latin America and Spain as well even if it managed to avoid both WWs. So, to be on the equal terms, alt-Mexico should perform some economic miracles.
While Manifest destiny was written by certain reporter idea to go west was floated by Thomas Jefferson and was seen as necessary for " American Liberty ", so it forming in Manifest destiny and some form of Monroe doctrine is inevitable really (but to make it clear British did more to uphold the doctrine than the US at the start as US had small army and navy).

Here goes the question: if by whatever means “Spain” manages to stop the American march to the Pacific, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the US to try grabbing Canada? Britain may have navy but of what use would it be inland? Even ability to attack the US ports is anybody’s guess because it is easier and cheaper to make the really big guns of a coastal defense than to built equal naval guns and the ships invulnerable to the land-based heavy artillery.

Then there's fact that US was ready to go to war with the British over Oregon, so i don't see them backing down against Spain

Yes. Sounds unlikely unless alt-Mexico has a good quality reasonably big army with the ability to maintain it during the war and population ready to resist the invader.

What did the Brits have to fight over Oregon?
But once again to draw the line with comments above , US settler's can be delt with and kept at bay via Irish, German and other Catholic settler's keeping the border in exchange for free land , things really started getting hot after transcontinental railroad was completed.
I doubt that the project may happen if the territory is Mexican.

Other important thing is that Spain probably doesn't want to give US the Pacific coast if it plans to keep rest of it, once US has pacific port it will want more and if it builds a railroad and gets a big settlement in the east
“west”?

there's little Spain can do to defend rest of it's possessions from US encroachment given difference in development(i would say it's the domino effect) , not to mention Spain can benefit from being intermediary between US and Asia .
Exactly the point. Even intermediary is a tricky issue if the purpose is to keep the US out. OTOH, the Panama canal may happen much earlier.

Just as a side thought, the American East Coast merchants had been actively trading with Asia well before the independence so, with the steamships etc., the trade can be comfortably conducted even without the Pacific coast available.


Otherwise regarding administration, yea Oregon will be under administration of New Spain as Louisiana was .

As for how could Spain be able to hold of the US? Well best option would be to involve France (i remember saying that France has an interest in maintaining Spanish empire in return for trade concessions).

At the cost of a major war with the terrible logistics?

Generally France should be able to fend off US relatively easy until Spain can stand on it's own two feet's as east coast is appropriately settled , division in the US will do the rest.
 

My bad, but yea west .
What did the Brits have to fight over Oregon?

US bought the claim from Spain, then decided to go back on Spanish and British border deal and claimed Oregon until 40th or 50th parallel at which point British simply accepted as they didn't want another war with US. Ironically US didn't want the war with the British as well because it decided to go to war with Mexico .

Other important thing is. Do you want US to border Alaska? I would prefer British border.
At the cost of a major war with the terrible logistics?

Yea i can see why France wouldn't be to excited, but i generally don't see other way for Spain to keep those lands, especially once US begins building railways.
OTOH, the US interior may get more settlers so there would be more RRs even if differently configured.

With industrialization need for more settler's will probably grow.
Here goes the question: if by whatever means “Spain” manages to stop the American march to the Pacific, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the US to try grabbing Canada?

Already tried and failed horribly, plus the land is of questionable value for major war, especially against the British not busy with Napoleonic wars and at the peek of industrialization (not to mention that Texas's substantial population willing to join US).

But the fine detail is in Spain stopping the US , Remember land that are fought over are in both cases lowly populated with bad infrastructure, just the big difference being that on one side the enemy is the British empire, on the other the Spanish empire.

Generally other option might be for Spain to sell Oregon and try to go for Adams -Onis type of treaty. US gets it's Pacific coast and Spain hopefully gets US out of it's back.

Spain was willing to do so otl and without the mess in Mexico the deal could probably hold (US was willing to expand deal with Mexico later, until the civil war and Texas happened).
 
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The other option is a successful Confederation, that would be more complicated.
Perhaps a bloodier civil war may see them be out for two decades while they rebuild.
Mexico is different, it will absorb most of the Catholic migration and perhaps they could use Filipinos and other Asians to develop California.
Another thing that would help is that France begins to invest more in Spain and it grows faster, so that by the end of the 19th century it will have a respectable army and a decent navy.
How good would the population of Mexico be?
They had 14 million in 1900, in this one they could have maybe 20/25 million with luck.
 
Isn't Texas populated by Irish Catholics who don't like the United States very much?
At least 1 million Irish went to Mexico if a fifth of that went to Texas it would still be like 200,000.
 
The other option is a successful Confederation, that would be more complicated.
Perhaps a bloodier civil war may see them be out for two decades while they rebuild.
Mexico is different, it will absorb most of the Catholic migration and perhaps they could use Filipinos and other Asians to develop California.
Another thing that would help is that France begins to invest more in Spain and it grows faster, so that by the end of the 19th century it will have a respectable army and a decent navy.
How good would the population of Mexico be?
They had 14 million in 1900, in this one they could have maybe 20/25 million with luck.

While Catholic migration is the fact many had multiple reasons to run away and NS ultimately might not be better destination than the US, especially remote parts and remember NS has competition in other Spanish colonies.

Regarding French investment, Spain needs that money at home or it risks losing rest of it's empire if it isn't able to contribute to the relationship, so it can't really invest all that money in NS and in that case it still faces problem if logistics.

Perhaps a bloodier civil war may see them be out for two decades while they rebuild.

Trick being in US doing nothing for next decade or two and generally expansion westward was what contributed to the tensions between slave state's and non slave state's.

Isn't Texas populated by Irish Catholics who don't like the United States very much?
At least 1 million Irish went to Mexico if a fifth of that went to Texas it would still be like 200,000.

Beauty is in fine details, if US is to build it's railways anyway why not sell Oregon, get a nice border deal and keep the valuable part like California?

By then California should get nice population boost due to Gold rush.
 
Perhaps it is best to delay the sale, how about selling the state of Washington and keeping the state of Oregon?
It would be a better border than basically a straight line.
In this way the US has its port and helps to further develop Mexico.
 
Madagascar, surely. But it will take years. No Horn of Africa: it would put the Brits in a too advantageous position when Suez canal is done. So, if they are trying to do so, they are facing international opposition and may end up losing some of their positions on the Med or. elsewhere.
This makes me wonder about Ethiopia TTL, without the Brits or Italians in the Horn of Africa messing around, we could see them rise up to take their place and get a nice control of the Red Sea, which will invite attention of the colonial powers.

I know OTL Russia supported Ethiopia with stuff like guns and some diplomatic efforts, I know TTL Russia dosen't have the same policy they did OTL, but would they still maintain the same policy with Ethiopia or not?
 
The New Era or more of the same?
245. The New Era or more of the same?

“The weak are often cruel, because they stop at nothing to eliminate the consequences of their mistakes.”
George Savil Halifax
“There are two types of specialists: those who know nothing about everything and those who know everything about nothing.”
General observation
“It's easy to rule Russia, but it's completely useless.”
Alexander II
The strong are lucky, and the very strong are very lucky.
Alexander Roshal
Свершилось, нет его! Пред ним благоговея,
Устами грешными его назвать не смею.
Свидетели о нем - бессмертные дела
.” [1]
Dostoevsky, ‘On death of Nicholas I’

Russia. 1860
18 February 1860 Nicholas I, Emperor of Russia died [2]. The most probable cause was a flu combined with an advanced age (he was already 64 years old) and unwillingness to demonstrate a weakness: attending the routine troops review in a middle of a winter without an overcoat while already having a flue was, of course, impressive but rather foolish. In addition to the viral infection he got a pneumonia. Within few days he was dead. However, the rumor had been circulating, especially among the lower classes, about him being poisoned by the “enemies of the Russian Empire”.

1667882386477.png


Before his death, Nicholas managed to make orders regarding the funeral. He ordered a shortening of the official farewell period from the traditional 6 to 3 weeks. But even such a reduced deadline proved to be too much because embalming was not done properly and the corps started decomposing. The emperor was driven by compassion to his family: following the traditional procedure it would be forced to see the corpse several times a day for a month and a half. Nikolai saved his loved ones from this meaningless and most importantly unpleasant activity.

However, quite a few people considered this a mistake because a shortened period before the funerals deprived many of his subjects of a chance to get to St.Petersburg [3] and pay their respect.
1667882449448.png

On March 6 he was buried (Description of the ceremony is quite long and I’ll skip it [4]). The reign lasting 35 years was over. Nobody was quite sure what the new reign will look like and the new emperor, Alexander II was not an exception.
1667931480515.png

Alexander was born in 1818 and, following the tradition. received a home education. His father paid special attention to the upbringing of the heir and, remembering his own rather lousy experience and resulting lapses in knowledge, was intended to avoid the similar problems. His "mentor", with the duty of leading the entire process of upbringing and education and the instruction to draw up a "plan of the exercise" was Vasily Andreevich Zhukovsky.
1667927713127.png

Zhukovsky was an outstanding poet (especially admired for his first-rate translations of German and English ballads), one of the creators of the modern Russian literary language, a highly educated man and, what was of at least equal importance, a nice and descent person and a dedicated monarchist.

The set of subjects proposed by Zhukovsky included Russian language, history, jurisprudence, finances, military education, geography, statistics, ethnography, logic, philosophy, mathematics, natural science, physics, mineralogy, geology, the law of God, languages: French, German, English and Polish. Much attention was paid to drawing, music, gymnastics, fencing, swimming and in general sports, dancing, handicraft and recitation. Vasily Andreevich himself taught Alexander Russian. As heir to the throne Alexander travelled abroad and visited 29 governorships of the European Russia.

For the Russian trip Nicholas provided his heir with a detailed written instruction in which his behavior during the trip had been specified in the minutiae details all the way to the explanation with whom and which dances he should be dancing during receptions in the provincial capitals. Seemingly, he did not count too much upon hid heir’s ability to make the right judgements on his own.

In 1850 Alexander spent 46 days traveling along the Russian Caucasus border, which was never quite peaceful. Most of the visit consisted of the travel between the border fortresses, the banquets in these fortresses and other suitable locations and the military exercises.

“There was breakfast in tents in Khankala. With the proclamation of a toast to the health of the sovereign heir, the gorge was filled with a loud cheer, and then there were battle shots from guns and battle fire was opened. Everyone rushed out of the tents to see the flight of cannonballs and grenades. Although there was no enemy, the picture was combat, especially for those, however, few who heard for the first time the flight of cannonballs, the rupture of grenades and the whistle of hundreds of bullets. Some thought we were attacked by the enemy, but in Khankala, except for several dozen Chechens, there was not a single non-peaceful person. His Highness admired this view very much. For that, significant equestrian crowds of the enemy drove behind Argun, while they left the gorge for an open place. Even single horsemen were seen outside the cannon shot and on this side of the river. The firing of guns continued, but not against the enemy: his Highness pleased to exercise horse Cossack artillery.”

Of course, to provide security the troops with artillery had to be moved all along the way but nothing was 100% foolproof:

We drive up to the small river Roshna, and in the place where the forest approached on the left side in the road of a verst by one and a half, a significant crowd of enemy appeared. Before someone could shout: "Chechens!", pointing in the direction from where they seemed, how His Highness, hitting his horse with a whip, rushed in the specified direction. Everyone rushed after the Tsarevich. Elderly Prince M. V. Vorontsov, who was traveling due to ill health in the open carriage, trembled, shuddered and with a fading heart, fearing responsibility in case of misfortune, jumped on a horse and, like a young man, rushed after the heir. But instead of danger, he saw a triumph. The enemy fled, the only body on a ground was of the murdered Chechen, and there were few horses without riders. A grapeshot of two guns and shahki [5] of the Cossacks inflicted a defeat on the enemy crowd. However, in addition to two horses, we also had a lightly wounded Cossack and a peaceful Chechen.
The courage with which His Highness rushed at the enemy was immediately appreciated, and the Commander-in-Chief, by the right granted to him, congratulated him as a St. George's Cavalier, about which, upon arrival in Sunzhenskaya, he entered with a submission to the sovereign emperor.” [6]


The young age could not be used to justify stupidity of the whole event, Alexander was already 32 years old and as a heir to the throne had responsibilities well above those of a junior cavalry officer. One (un)lucky shot and the whole grand geopolitical schema of Nicholas would be endangered by a potential dynastic crisis. In the case of Nicholas’ death within the next few years, the throne would go to Alexander’s elder child who still will be a child and, with Constantine (King Szilard I of Hungary) being busy in his own kingdom, the regency would go to still young Nicholas Nicholaevich. Or, depending upon how text of the law is being interpreted, it could turn into a complete mess: “We choose an heir, by right Natural, after my death, our eldest son, and after him his entire male generation.” But what if the said son dies before his father? Is the principle still applicable or is it open to the interpretations because the eldest son is now the second son (who is a king elsewhere), etc. Who knows how things would work out.

Anyway, the new monarch was definitely better educated and more charming than his father and Nicholas took care about his being deeply involved with the state business (to avoid situation in which he found himself in 1825) but there were two problems:
  • He did not possess his father’s strong will and dominating presence .
  • His education was very good but Zhukovsky was seriously trying to make out of him a descent man driven by the moral judgements while his future position required a cynical and pragmatic a—hole like his predecessors. As a result, he was often unsure about the proper course of actions.
“His main drawback was poor knowledge of people and inability to use them. Kind in nature, he was soft in personal relationships; but, not trusting himself, he did not trust others; he was secretive, cunning, tried to balance different directions, … but did it in such a way that everyone was paralyzed in their actions and did not feel solid ground under him.”

In his personal communications he often had the fits of rage [7] and could be quite cruel. Within family he was not really loved or respected and, in practical terms, this meant that the Grand Dukes were out of control in their expenses.

Fortunately, at least for a while there was not too much for him to do except following the routine and the main source of a potential “push to the left”, his brother Constantine, was busy trying to implement his ideas in Hungary. As a result, the activities had been channeled mostly into the military and naval affairs, both of which had to be kept up to the latest technological developments, railroads construction (which was intense but not well thought off in the financial terms) and maintaining the existing geopolitical system. Of course, he was not a fool so his decisions would not necessarily be bad. The open question, so far, will they be timely or will he procrastinate for too long thus missing an opportunity and ending up with a course of actions that was good initially but not so anymore. Rather unfortunately, his Minister of the Foreign Affairs, Prince Gorchakov, while being a very intelligent person and a good diplomat, was too prone to searching by universal consensus even when it was not necessary. Taking into an account the traditional British policies this tendency may turn out to be a serious problem in the future.

The domestic policy was, so far, reasonably under control even if there were few troubling signs of an extreme radicalism raising its head. AII chose to ignore the issue, which was not necessarily a good course of action because passivity of the state was definitely encouraging the radicals. The good news was that so far, due to a complete absence of any sane political program these people did not have too much of a popular support. The bad news was that, being a bunch of the maniacs dedicated to a single idea of killing everybody they did not approve of, they did not care about the trifles like popularity: when the Tyrant and all his satraps are dead, the people are going to understand how grateful they must be to their saviors. What is going to happen after that was somewhat unclear and did not really matter. Strictly speaking these “narodniks” had been divided into two groups:
  • Those who were going to enlighten the peasants (“narod”) expecting that they’ll rebel and overthrow the regime with all following excitement of killing the tyrants. That group tended to dress as their idea of the peasants and to go to the villages to spread propaganda. Most of them, as soon as the peasants managed to figure out what that peculiarly dressed stranger is talking about, had been taken, beaten and delivered to the police. Due to the absence of any instructions and no law explicitly forbidding the talking, they were either released or put on trial for some silly misdemeanor charge and soon released. In the worst case scenario a decisive governor could apply administrative power and expel them from the European Russia.
  • Those who did not bother to talk but kept planning the political assassinations, either simple or involving the elaborate plans which could take years. So far, until they really tried to kill somebody, their behavior was not illegal.
It is an open question how these people, most of whom did not work anywhere and non of whom had any wealth of his/her own managed to exist for years but somehow they did, clearly not starving and being able to buy all necessary supplies for their activities.

Other than that, situation did not change too much except that the well-advertised committee was created to discuss possibility of adding trial by jury into the Russian legal system. An idea was making the “educated classes” quite happy with most of the population not giving a damn. Actually, within their jurisdiction the rural communities had something of the kind for the minor crimes.

One more or less brand new area which AII could claim as “his own” was a renewed attention to Dzungaria. When Russia absorbed it it was done mostly with a simple and straightforward goal to screw the Qing Empire. After this goal was accomplished and favorable trade agreements concluded not too much attention had been paid to the region. Eventually, the local ruling dynasty became fully incorporated into the top Russian aristocracy, the lower personages also had been assimilated, Dzungaria became general-governorship and served mostly as a supplier of meat and horses for the Eastern Siberia and high quality cavalrymen for the Russian army. Well, the region also had a lot of high quality jade, which was always in high demand in China.

Couple very important things happened elsewhere which changed the attitudes:
These two technologies had been mutually complementary. Bessemer process allowed to transform 5 tons of pig iron to steel in 30 minutes. Siemens-Martin process was much slower but it allowed to transform 50, 100, 300 or even 500 tons at once and it also allowed to reuse the scrap iron as a part of the load. Steel became cheap and could be produced in really big volumes simplifying the railroad construction and weapons production. Of course, the authors had their patents but since when the Russian or Prussian government cared about the foreign patents, especially the British ones? The technical information was obtained and, to avoid unnecessary noice, one time payments had been made after which the local modifications made the whole issue a mute point and, anyway, in both cases Siemens-Martin method took precedence as one that allowed to get a lot of steel and one of a higher quality (S-M process was more controllable).

The steel production skyrocketed and this required a lot of iron and coal and, in the case of Russia, in more than one place. The geological review of the previously neglected areas had been ordered and Dzungaria ended up high on the list.

“[Dzungaria] is characterized by an abundance of all kinds of mineral resources. Here we find coal in many places and in huge quantities. There are copper, iron, lead, silver, oil and, finally, several gold deposits are known and developed [9], some of them are quite reliable. Most of these wealth is not exploited and is waiting for an entrepreneur who would put his work, knowledge and capital to this business."

The good part was that all the listed wealth was found in the inhabitable part of a region and not in the middle of the deserts. Some roads already existed and a speedy construction of a railroad going from the general-governorship of Turkestan to Urumqi and all the way to Kashgar through the economically promising areas had started.
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When finished and connected with the existing railroads, this one was goin to provide a reliable supply of coal and anthracite to the Ural’s metallurgical plants.

The increased steel production pretty much guaranteed that the naval question will pop up as one of the high priorities. By now Russian navy had plenty of the steamships of all types but in a light of the most recent French and British naval developments most of these ships became hopelessly obsolete due to the oldish artillery and especially absence of an armor. Which way to go was an open question: both “Glorie” and “Warrior” had been essentially ships of a traditional naval architecture using the new technologies but not an advanced naval architecture. Not that anybody could tell for sure what this architecture should look like.

Was this a right way to go or should something be done based upon the limited but positive experience of using the monitors with the gun turrets?

What about the naval artillery? So far, the reports about the French and British tests of the existing and new cannons against the armor [10] produced very mixed results with the resulting argument regarding the virtues of the breechloaders vs. muzzleloaders, methods of armor breaking [11], etc. The Russian Admiralty was hotly debating the best approach but so far hardly moved anywhere. Its former General-Admiral was now a foreign monarch and without at least a formal strong leadership decision was nowhere close and AII was not competent enough to make any meaningful opinion.
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Rather fortunately, there was a young (only 40 years old) rear admiral who seemingly made the steamships his area of competence. His name was Grigory Butakov and he already wrote a book “New Principles of Steamboat Tactics” describing the most advantageous evolutions of the steamships during a battle. The book was translated into English, French, Italian and Spanish. He served as High Chief of the naval unit in Nikolayev and also the Naval Governor of Nikolayev and Sevastopol and in 1860 was transferred to the Baltic Fleet to be able to participate in the ongoing discussions and, if needed, to consult the Emperor on the subject. Both of which he did with the great enthusiasm.




_________
[1] ‘It happened, he is dead! Revering him,
I don't dare to spell out his name with my sinful mouth.
Witnesses of him are his immortal deeds.’
[2] In OTL in 1855 but I mentioned him within context of some later events so he got extra 5 years.
[3] Moscow is still the official capital but St.Petersburg is something of a Versailles on steroids: the emperors spend most of their time there and are buried in the Peter and Paul fortress. However, they are being crowned in Moscow and the state apparatus is split between official and unofficial capital.
[4] https://nicholas-i.livejournal.com/99636.html
[5] Shahka or shasqua is a type of of sabre; a single-edged, single-handed, and guardless backsword popular on the Caucasus and adopted by the Cossacks.
[6] General M.J. Olshevsky “CAUCASUS FROM 1841 TO 1866”
[7] The only such a fit I found about NI was related to the cause when during the artillery salute one cannon was by mistake loaded with a cannonball and it flew close to Nicholas. In a fit of a rage he promised the commanding officer …er… “to enter into the unnatural sexual relations” with him to which got an answer “At Your Majesty’s service” and the whole episode ended with a laugh. 😂
[8] In OTL in 1865.
[9] Annual gold extraction volume was in a range 5 - 10 tons.
[10] It was usually 1-4 inches of steel with something like 20 inches of wood behind it.
[11] The first shells for this purpose were blunt-headed intended to break through rather that to pierce.
 
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