This. I remember being major part of this debate, as the colony plan did exist and nothing existed preventing Sweden (much more populous ITTL) from implementing it, except for setting NZ as the more appropriate target that would allow to avoid colonial conflict with Brits.
No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)
- Thread starter alexmilman
- Start date
Sweden
239 Sweden
Sweden.
The first sentence is going to be trivial. King Gustav V [1] of Sweden needed money.
Less trivial was the reason. He needed money not because he was a spendthrift or because Swedish economy was in trouble but because it was doing quite well.
Swedish economy was still dominated by the agricultural sector and almost 90% of its population lived in the countryside. Even most of the non-agricultural activities such as iron industry and saw mill industry were performed in the rural areas. But the agriculture itself had been slowly transforming since the early 1800s. The population kept growing and the domestic market for food stuffs widened. Simultaneously some other changes were happening impacting the general economic situation. Domestic transportation costs had been dropping due to investments in canals and roads. Trade of agricultural goods was liberalized, teducing the transaction costs and further integrating the domestic market. Trading companies became more effective in attracting agricultural surpluses for more distant markets. Mortgage societies had been establishec to supply agriculture with long term capital for investment further intensifying commercialization of production.
As a side factor, growing literacy level helped in spreading information regarding the new agricultural methods.
General industrial growth of Europe resulted in a sharp increase of the Swedish exports and the price increase for three main export items:
Bar iron and industry. Charcoal-based Swedish bar iron had been the traditional Swedish export item and still was dominating Swedish exports. However, it was meeting increasingly strong competition from British, Russian and other continental steel industries with the resulting stagnation of the exports for the last couple decades. The growing international demand gave a stimulus to the modernization of Swedish steel production but it required money.
For a time being, there was still no need in the fundamental technological changes and related expenses because the Bessemer and Martin technologies for steel production still were few years away and, while Swedish charcoal-based iron was on the expensive side, its reputation for a high quality still provided a stable, if not growing export niche.
Wood and timber industry. The saw mill industry was a new export industry which only started growing in the late 1840s. So far the Swedish forests had been regarded mostly as a fuel resource for the iron industry and, in the case of Finland, a source for tar. Well, and of course for the domestic usage (heating and construction). But with the growing demand of Western European markets the resources of northern Sweden suddenly became valuable with a resulting explosion of the saw mills construction at the mouths of the rivers along the northern coastline. The mills needed steam engines and this meant money. Already, quite a few of the newly constructed mills had been owned by Norwegian, German, British and Dutch merchants and if the trend continued, the Swedish merchants could be squeezed out of their own market.
At the beginning of the 1830'S the export of sawn timber amounted to 200,000 cubic meters and around 1860, it reached 1 million cubic meters.
The multiplier-accelerator effect of the sawmill industry had importance not only for the capital-goods industry, which furnished the sawmills with machinery and in its tum led to an increased demand by the engineering industry for other products, but also for the boom in the consumer-goods industry, which can to some extent be seen as a reflection of the sawmill industry development.
The demand from foreign countries for Swedish products gave the exporters and the producers possibilities for expansion and enabled them to reduce their production costs. The investment activity therefore influenced' also other industrial branches, whose production grew as the export industry expanded.
It was easier for the export industry than for the home-market industry to expand in a community such as the Swedish, with its low National income and poorly-developed communications. The expansion in the export sector could take place before the essen- tial basic investments had been developed An industrial expansion on the home market was delayed, being limited not only by low real income, but also by poor communications between the regional markets. Investments in communications were therefore necessary in the initial industrialization phase in order to improve the distribution facilities if an integrated home market was to be developed However, because the demand for industrial products came from foreign markets, the industry could begin to expand before these investments were made.
Oats and agriculture. The traditional Swedish agriculture traditionally had problems with producing enough grain to feed the growing population and the problem was a in shortage of the high quality agricultural land need for growing wheat. The land reclamation started after 1830 when the Act concerning legal land parcelling was issued. It was intended to address demands of growing rural population and in this aspect it was successful. However, it could not fully resolve the underlying problem because these lands were even lousier and improved agricultural methods could not solve this problem completely even if as a result need for the food imports decreased sharply to a degree which prevented it to be a serious problem.
The re-parcelling necessitated considerable investments (new buildings, roads construction, fencing) and while most of the work had been done by the farmers themselves and needed material was taken from their own forests, the new investment had an accelerating effect. Well, all these activities on their own would be pretty much money spent just to deal with the demographic issue of feeding the growing population with a surplus being of no serious value.
But, fortunately, there was Britain and Britain needed the increasing amounts of oats: industrialization greatly increased the short-distance domestic traffic and this meant that increasing numbers of horses had been needed with a resulting need to fed them. In the 1830s only London’s largest transport enterprise had more than 300,000 horses.
And the oats could grow even on the bad lands. So the Swedish agriculture started using more and more barren soils to grow more oats replacing the traditional domestic flax production (flax was also thriving on barren soil) and, as a byproduct, increasingly switching from domestic linen to the factory-produced cotton goods (the cotton industry had been growing at a fast rate, starting from zero, but could not exclude the imports). But cultivation of a new crop also required investments (money), especially taking into an account that it was involving re-parceling of the new lands, infrastructure and other expenses which the farmers could cover only partially.
Just as a side note, the ongoing processes triggered serious changes. So far, the technology in the industry, forestry, agriculture and transportation were reasonably simple and labor intensive. The demand for unskilled labor increased strongly and this started impacting the wages. Of course, commercial houses and industrial companies had been making profits but export income was distributed to many segments of the population. Social composition of the population changed as well. During the period 1750 to 1840, the number of fanners grew by about 16 per cent, whereas the lower class population increased by approximately 240 per cent.
The growing exports provided the farmers with an additional income which increased demand for industrial goods which provided stimulus for growing consumer-goods industry and simplified an issue of getting the foreign credits.
The integration of the economy was further enforced through the State initiatives: the early 1850s the decision was made to start railway construction which meant both deeper state involvement in the development of a modern infrastructure and the new principles of finance because the State had to rely upon the capital imports.
The agriculture itself was also getting more capital demanding due to the introduction of new implements.
When the process started situation with the credits available in the rural areas was not good because all credit institutions had been available only in the towns and for the towns. Surprisingly (or not) the rural saving banks came into an existence very fast and in the growing numbers. The number of savings banks increased between 1834 and 1860 from 3I to 146 and their capital from 2.3-million kronor to 29.o-million kronor.
Another contributing cause of the investment activity was the development of mortgage societies. The first of these for the farming community was founded in 1836, and before 1850 most counties in south and central Sweden had their own. But the needed amounts of money could not be easily found domestically and by the end of 1858, these societies will have a foreign bond liability of 52-million kronor out of a total bond liability of 72-million kronor.
To make the long story short, transformation of the Swedish agriculture had been happening before the industrial transformation and allowed both to provide food supplies for the growing non-agricultural population and to start accumulating capital which could later be used for industrialization.
On a downside, agricultural self-sufficiency did not last for long because the exports had been more profitable, the oats-dominated nomenclature was not adequate and, when in few years industrialization kicked in, the balance of food consumers and producers started seriously shifting into the first category even if the second still remained much more numerous. So, in few years the grain imports started again.
Well, one way or another, the task of keeping Sweden a modern and prosperous state was costly and the domestic financial resources had been relatively limited. So far the Swedish industrial entrepreneurs were recruited from a relatively small group. It is clear that the commercial houses, i.e. the wholesalers, belonged to the most initiative-rich founders of businesses in Sweden.
The financing often took the form of short-term credits, for in- stance by promissory note guarantee, but in actual fact these were made long-term by continual renewal, which was, naturally, a pressure on the liquidity of the enterprises. Not a big surprise that so far much of a working credit was coming from the abroad and while this was fine with the Swedish merchants-industrialists, King Gustav V did not want Sweden to be excessively dependent upon the foreign and not necessarily too friendly countries.
The seemingly obvious solution would be to strengthen the Swedish National Bank (Sveriges Riksbank). It already reinstated the silver standard in 1831 and starting from 1835 began printing the modern-looking banknotes (the private banks still had a right to print their own money, which periodically resulted in problems because when en the commercial banks were shaken, the Riksbank was unable to step in and provide support).
But so far where to get the big amount of cash was anybody’s guess. Administration of the Swedish territories was consuming a big part of the revenues, the army and navy kept growing more expensive and while the peace treaty with the natives of NZ was signed in 1841, the colony was useful mostly as a place that helps slightly decrease the demographic pressure caused by population growth at home.
For quite a while there was a low intensity bargaining process between King Gustav and FWIV of Prussia. The King of Prussia was interested in acquisition of the Swedish duchy Bremen-Verden expecting that if this happens he will be able to get an access to the North Sea with a resulting easy access to the Atlantic trade. He was ready to buy the area or to propose a realistic land swap or combination of both. GV was maintaining the process but so far it was not going anywhere because interest on both sides was limited and out-shadowed by the different priorities. Now he started paying more attention.
Bremen-Verden was in the Swedish possession for a very long time but, unlike the Baltic provinces, it was not integrated into Sweden in any meaningful way. The Baltic provinces had its historic privileges but their nobility was actively engaged in the Swedish army and navy, the Baltic trade involved both sides of the Baltic, and, as far as the existing guild laws permitted, the Swedish businesses had been actively operating in the provinces. During the reign of his predecessor they, together with Finland, the former PLC territories and Curland, were fully integrated into the Swedish government system and had been represented in Riksdag.
OTOH, Bremen-Verden was fully isolated. Its ruling class firmly held to the constitution of 1648. It was under the direct rule of its duke who happened to be the Kung of Sweden and ruled through the governor he appointed. The tax-levying department, almost entirely manned with Swedes and using Swedish as administrative language, was directly subordinated to the finance ministry in Stockholm but in jurisdiction, Bremen-Verden's Estates maintained their stake and the Duchy was sending its representatives into the Imperial Diet. The taxes collected in the Duchy were almost completely spent on its administration and maintenance of the garrison troops which, while being traditionally commanded by the Swedish general, had been recruited locally and had local officers.
The triggering event was turmoil of 1848. Suddenly, a backward conservative swamp became quite active and, while the disturbances had been suppressed, it required arrival of the Swedish contingents because the Duchy’s troops proved to be unreliable. More than that, there were some loud voices demanding the German unification and expressing an idea that the Duchy should become an autonomous province within that new German state. Finally, without asking permission from Stockholm, the Duchy sent its representatives to the National Assembly in Frankfurt.
Of course, Sweden could suppress any separatist movement without a serious problem but expeditions not had been costly and there were more productive ways to spend money. The governor of the Duchy had been summoned to Stockholm and he confirmed that the Duchy’s loyalty is quite shaky, at best, and that to keep it quite and loyal will require a permanent presence of 25,000 -30,000 Swedish troops, which will require to provide the Duchy with the allowances because the Duchy’s tax revenue would not cover the growing military expense.
As a result, King Gustav was ready to get rid of the Duchy providing there is going to be a descent compensation. And, of course, to get that descent compensation he should not look excessively interested. Probably the best way would be to make it something of a family affair with the “third party” being involved to make it all look (and be) fair. A convenient family reunion had been arranged in Petergof with FWIV, who was suffering from bad health, being represented by his brother Wilhelm, Prinz von Preußen [2]. Nicholas was quite enthusiastic about the deal happening because this would eliminate a need for him to choose sides in the case of the issue ends up in a serious conflict: with the close family connections on both sides this would be awkward at best and could damage the existing system of the alliances at worst. Plus, of course, the very fact that both sides asked him for mediation was raising his personal international prestige and underscored strength of the whole Baltic System.
With all sides being willing to figure out a suitable solution, the business part did not took too long leaving plenty of time for entertainment: with the principal framework being agreed upon, the boring details had been left to the professional diplomats who would prepare the final document and present it for the “historic event” of signing the treaty.
Actually, it was not too complicated. The King of Sweden was transferring his sovereignty rights to the Duchy of Bremen-Verden to the King of Prussia who, in his turn, cedes to the King of Prussia the territories of the former Polish Woj. Pomorskie with Bitow and Lybork and pays monetary compensation to cover the values difference. The technical details regarding the land access to the East Prussia, tariff free regime for the transit goods, etc. were included and, to make the whole thing into the show of the true unity, it was decided to start technical discussions on the ambitious plan of railroad going from St. Petersburg through the Baltic Provinces, East Prussia, Danizig and further all the way to Berlin. Taking into an account the growing Russian economic links to Prussia, this railroad could provide an additional route for the imports-exports somewhat relieving the burden upon St. Petersburg port.
_________
[1] ITTL married to Grand Duchess Alexandra Nikolaevna who managed not to die in 1844. Wanted to make him Nicholas’ nephew but could not find if I married his father to Alexandra Pavlovna. Let’s hope not. OTOH, I somehow doubt that Synod would resist a dynastic marriage even if the first cousins are involved. Of course, the times being civilized, it is probably out of question that a stubborn bishop is going to end his life being immured in a cell in some remote monastery over the consciousness issue but the government had plenty of time to produce a breed of the Church hierarchs who would not be that stupid.
[2] Married to Nicholas’ niece.
Alla sätt är bra utom de dåliga (All methods are good except for the bad ones)
Swedish saying
“Successful diplomacy is an alignment of objectives and means.”
Dennis Ross
“He who defends everything, defends nothing.”
Frederick the Great
“The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”
Bismarck
Swedish saying
“Successful diplomacy is an alignment of objectives and means.”
Dennis Ross
“He who defends everything, defends nothing.”
Frederick the Great
“The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”
Bismarck
Sweden.
The first sentence is going to be trivial. King Gustav V [1] of Sweden needed money.
Less trivial was the reason. He needed money not because he was a spendthrift or because Swedish economy was in trouble but because it was doing quite well.
Swedish economy was still dominated by the agricultural sector and almost 90% of its population lived in the countryside. Even most of the non-agricultural activities such as iron industry and saw mill industry were performed in the rural areas. But the agriculture itself had been slowly transforming since the early 1800s. The population kept growing and the domestic market for food stuffs widened. Simultaneously some other changes were happening impacting the general economic situation. Domestic transportation costs had been dropping due to investments in canals and roads. Trade of agricultural goods was liberalized, teducing the transaction costs and further integrating the domestic market. Trading companies became more effective in attracting agricultural surpluses for more distant markets. Mortgage societies had been establishec to supply agriculture with long term capital for investment further intensifying commercialization of production.
As a side factor, growing literacy level helped in spreading information regarding the new agricultural methods.
General industrial growth of Europe resulted in a sharp increase of the Swedish exports and the price increase for three main export items:
- Bar iron
- Wood
- Oats
Bar iron and industry. Charcoal-based Swedish bar iron had been the traditional Swedish export item and still was dominating Swedish exports. However, it was meeting increasingly strong competition from British, Russian and other continental steel industries with the resulting stagnation of the exports for the last couple decades. The growing international demand gave a stimulus to the modernization of Swedish steel production but it required money.
For a time being, there was still no need in the fundamental technological changes and related expenses because the Bessemer and Martin technologies for steel production still were few years away and, while Swedish charcoal-based iron was on the expensive side, its reputation for a high quality still provided a stable, if not growing export niche.
Wood and timber industry. The saw mill industry was a new export industry which only started growing in the late 1840s. So far the Swedish forests had been regarded mostly as a fuel resource for the iron industry and, in the case of Finland, a source for tar. Well, and of course for the domestic usage (heating and construction). But with the growing demand of Western European markets the resources of northern Sweden suddenly became valuable with a resulting explosion of the saw mills construction at the mouths of the rivers along the northern coastline. The mills needed steam engines and this meant money. Already, quite a few of the newly constructed mills had been owned by Norwegian, German, British and Dutch merchants and if the trend continued, the Swedish merchants could be squeezed out of their own market.
At the beginning of the 1830'S the export of sawn timber amounted to 200,000 cubic meters and around 1860, it reached 1 million cubic meters.
The multiplier-accelerator effect of the sawmill industry had importance not only for the capital-goods industry, which furnished the sawmills with machinery and in its tum led to an increased demand by the engineering industry for other products, but also for the boom in the consumer-goods industry, which can to some extent be seen as a reflection of the sawmill industry development.
The demand from foreign countries for Swedish products gave the exporters and the producers possibilities for expansion and enabled them to reduce their production costs. The investment activity therefore influenced' also other industrial branches, whose production grew as the export industry expanded.
It was easier for the export industry than for the home-market industry to expand in a community such as the Swedish, with its low National income and poorly-developed communications. The expansion in the export sector could take place before the essen- tial basic investments had been developed An industrial expansion on the home market was delayed, being limited not only by low real income, but also by poor communications between the regional markets. Investments in communications were therefore necessary in the initial industrialization phase in order to improve the distribution facilities if an integrated home market was to be developed However, because the demand for industrial products came from foreign markets, the industry could begin to expand before these investments were made.
Oats and agriculture. The traditional Swedish agriculture traditionally had problems with producing enough grain to feed the growing population and the problem was a in shortage of the high quality agricultural land need for growing wheat. The land reclamation started after 1830 when the Act concerning legal land parcelling was issued. It was intended to address demands of growing rural population and in this aspect it was successful. However, it could not fully resolve the underlying problem because these lands were even lousier and improved agricultural methods could not solve this problem completely even if as a result need for the food imports decreased sharply to a degree which prevented it to be a serious problem.
The re-parcelling necessitated considerable investments (new buildings, roads construction, fencing) and while most of the work had been done by the farmers themselves and needed material was taken from their own forests, the new investment had an accelerating effect. Well, all these activities on their own would be pretty much money spent just to deal with the demographic issue of feeding the growing population with a surplus being of no serious value.
But, fortunately, there was Britain and Britain needed the increasing amounts of oats: industrialization greatly increased the short-distance domestic traffic and this meant that increasing numbers of horses had been needed with a resulting need to fed them. In the 1830s only London’s largest transport enterprise had more than 300,000 horses.
And the oats could grow even on the bad lands. So the Swedish agriculture started using more and more barren soils to grow more oats replacing the traditional domestic flax production (flax was also thriving on barren soil) and, as a byproduct, increasingly switching from domestic linen to the factory-produced cotton goods (the cotton industry had been growing at a fast rate, starting from zero, but could not exclude the imports). But cultivation of a new crop also required investments (money), especially taking into an account that it was involving re-parceling of the new lands, infrastructure and other expenses which the farmers could cover only partially.
Just as a side note, the ongoing processes triggered serious changes. So far, the technology in the industry, forestry, agriculture and transportation were reasonably simple and labor intensive. The demand for unskilled labor increased strongly and this started impacting the wages. Of course, commercial houses and industrial companies had been making profits but export income was distributed to many segments of the population. Social composition of the population changed as well. During the period 1750 to 1840, the number of fanners grew by about 16 per cent, whereas the lower class population increased by approximately 240 per cent.
The growing exports provided the farmers with an additional income which increased demand for industrial goods which provided stimulus for growing consumer-goods industry and simplified an issue of getting the foreign credits.
The integration of the economy was further enforced through the State initiatives: the early 1850s the decision was made to start railway construction which meant both deeper state involvement in the development of a modern infrastructure and the new principles of finance because the State had to rely upon the capital imports.
The agriculture itself was also getting more capital demanding due to the introduction of new implements.
When the process started situation with the credits available in the rural areas was not good because all credit institutions had been available only in the towns and for the towns. Surprisingly (or not) the rural saving banks came into an existence very fast and in the growing numbers. The number of savings banks increased between 1834 and 1860 from 3I to 146 and their capital from 2.3-million kronor to 29.o-million kronor.
Another contributing cause of the investment activity was the development of mortgage societies. The first of these for the farming community was founded in 1836, and before 1850 most counties in south and central Sweden had their own. But the needed amounts of money could not be easily found domestically and by the end of 1858, these societies will have a foreign bond liability of 52-million kronor out of a total bond liability of 72-million kronor.
To make the long story short, transformation of the Swedish agriculture had been happening before the industrial transformation and allowed both to provide food supplies for the growing non-agricultural population and to start accumulating capital which could later be used for industrialization.
On a downside, agricultural self-sufficiency did not last for long because the exports had been more profitable, the oats-dominated nomenclature was not adequate and, when in few years industrialization kicked in, the balance of food consumers and producers started seriously shifting into the first category even if the second still remained much more numerous. So, in few years the grain imports started again.
Well, one way or another, the task of keeping Sweden a modern and prosperous state was costly and the domestic financial resources had been relatively limited. So far the Swedish industrial entrepreneurs were recruited from a relatively small group. It is clear that the commercial houses, i.e. the wholesalers, belonged to the most initiative-rich founders of businesses in Sweden.
The financing often took the form of short-term credits, for in- stance by promissory note guarantee, but in actual fact these were made long-term by continual renewal, which was, naturally, a pressure on the liquidity of the enterprises. Not a big surprise that so far much of a working credit was coming from the abroad and while this was fine with the Swedish merchants-industrialists, King Gustav V did not want Sweden to be excessively dependent upon the foreign and not necessarily too friendly countries.
The seemingly obvious solution would be to strengthen the Swedish National Bank (Sveriges Riksbank). It already reinstated the silver standard in 1831 and starting from 1835 began printing the modern-looking banknotes (the private banks still had a right to print their own money, which periodically resulted in problems because when en the commercial banks were shaken, the Riksbank was unable to step in and provide support).
But so far where to get the big amount of cash was anybody’s guess. Administration of the Swedish territories was consuming a big part of the revenues, the army and navy kept growing more expensive and while the peace treaty with the natives of NZ was signed in 1841, the colony was useful mostly as a place that helps slightly decrease the demographic pressure caused by population growth at home.
For quite a while there was a low intensity bargaining process between King Gustav and FWIV of Prussia. The King of Prussia was interested in acquisition of the Swedish duchy Bremen-Verden expecting that if this happens he will be able to get an access to the North Sea with a resulting easy access to the Atlantic trade. He was ready to buy the area or to propose a realistic land swap or combination of both. GV was maintaining the process but so far it was not going anywhere because interest on both sides was limited and out-shadowed by the different priorities. Now he started paying more attention.
Bremen-Verden was in the Swedish possession for a very long time but, unlike the Baltic provinces, it was not integrated into Sweden in any meaningful way. The Baltic provinces had its historic privileges but their nobility was actively engaged in the Swedish army and navy, the Baltic trade involved both sides of the Baltic, and, as far as the existing guild laws permitted, the Swedish businesses had been actively operating in the provinces. During the reign of his predecessor they, together with Finland, the former PLC territories and Curland, were fully integrated into the Swedish government system and had been represented in Riksdag.
OTOH, Bremen-Verden was fully isolated. Its ruling class firmly held to the constitution of 1648. It was under the direct rule of its duke who happened to be the Kung of Sweden and ruled through the governor he appointed. The tax-levying department, almost entirely manned with Swedes and using Swedish as administrative language, was directly subordinated to the finance ministry in Stockholm but in jurisdiction, Bremen-Verden's Estates maintained their stake and the Duchy was sending its representatives into the Imperial Diet. The taxes collected in the Duchy were almost completely spent on its administration and maintenance of the garrison troops which, while being traditionally commanded by the Swedish general, had been recruited locally and had local officers.
The triggering event was turmoil of 1848. Suddenly, a backward conservative swamp became quite active and, while the disturbances had been suppressed, it required arrival of the Swedish contingents because the Duchy’s troops proved to be unreliable. More than that, there were some loud voices demanding the German unification and expressing an idea that the Duchy should become an autonomous province within that new German state. Finally, without asking permission from Stockholm, the Duchy sent its representatives to the National Assembly in Frankfurt.
Of course, Sweden could suppress any separatist movement without a serious problem but expeditions not had been costly and there were more productive ways to spend money. The governor of the Duchy had been summoned to Stockholm and he confirmed that the Duchy’s loyalty is quite shaky, at best, and that to keep it quite and loyal will require a permanent presence of 25,000 -30,000 Swedish troops, which will require to provide the Duchy with the allowances because the Duchy’s tax revenue would not cover the growing military expense.
As a result, King Gustav was ready to get rid of the Duchy providing there is going to be a descent compensation. And, of course, to get that descent compensation he should not look excessively interested. Probably the best way would be to make it something of a family affair with the “third party” being involved to make it all look (and be) fair. A convenient family reunion had been arranged in Petergof with FWIV, who was suffering from bad health, being represented by his brother Wilhelm, Prinz von Preußen [2]. Nicholas was quite enthusiastic about the deal happening because this would eliminate a need for him to choose sides in the case of the issue ends up in a serious conflict: with the close family connections on both sides this would be awkward at best and could damage the existing system of the alliances at worst. Plus, of course, the very fact that both sides asked him for mediation was raising his personal international prestige and underscored strength of the whole Baltic System.
With all sides being willing to figure out a suitable solution, the business part did not took too long leaving plenty of time for entertainment: with the principal framework being agreed upon, the boring details had been left to the professional diplomats who would prepare the final document and present it for the “historic event” of signing the treaty.
Actually, it was not too complicated. The King of Sweden was transferring his sovereignty rights to the Duchy of Bremen-Verden to the King of Prussia who, in his turn, cedes to the King of Prussia the territories of the former Polish Woj. Pomorskie with Bitow and Lybork and pays monetary compensation to cover the values difference. The technical details regarding the land access to the East Prussia, tariff free regime for the transit goods, etc. were included and, to make the whole thing into the show of the true unity, it was decided to start technical discussions on the ambitious plan of railroad going from St. Petersburg through the Baltic Provinces, East Prussia, Danizig and further all the way to Berlin. Taking into an account the growing Russian economic links to Prussia, this railroad could provide an additional route for the imports-exports somewhat relieving the burden upon St. Petersburg port.
_________
[1] ITTL married to Grand Duchess Alexandra Nikolaevna who managed not to die in 1844. Wanted to make him Nicholas’ nephew but could not find if I married his father to Alexandra Pavlovna. Let’s hope not. OTOH, I somehow doubt that Synod would resist a dynastic marriage even if the first cousins are involved. Of course, the times being civilized, it is probably out of question that a stubborn bishop is going to end his life being immured in a cell in some remote monastery over the consciousness issue but the government had plenty of time to produce a breed of the Church hierarchs who would not be that stupid.
[2] Married to Nicholas’ niece.
Of course, it can be argued that the US was far from being a superpower or the great power at that time as well but before the Revolutionary Wars Spain was not the most technologically advanced country in Europe and, even without the following OTL wars, I’m not quite sure who it would manage to do the required technological leap within the next 4-5 decades. The same goes for the colonies and probably even in a greater degree, even without the liberation wars. The “infrastructure” including qualified engineering and technical cadres was seriously lacking and I’m not sure that any of the member states had enough money to buy its way right to the front end of the industrial revolution by buying everything needed: technical specialists, equipment, etc.
The best case scenario will be a less chaotic Mexico with enough money to buy the modern weapons and administration competent enough to keep and maintain a well equipped and organized army. AFAIK, it failed to do so during the dictatorship of Porfirio Dias and not sure that the results had been too impressive since then. But if we assume that it does happen and that the migrants from the North are not permitted (avoiding Texas and CA revolts) than there is a chance that the military confrontation will be more even with the outcome less disastrous for Mexico.
Spain itself does not look as a major deterrent. To be such it would have to be able to sent really big number of troops with the supplies to Mexico, which requires a big and reasonably modern navy and where will Spain get the money for doing all modernization of its economy while simultaneously maintaining a modern army and building a big navy? The ships which had been there in 1800 mostly are not going to be around in 1830s (Santissima Trinidade was built in 1769 and most of the Spanish fleet was reasonably old by the early 1800s).
The Manifest Destiny was, after all, not just an abstract fantasy, it was reflective of a general expansionist situation and mentality: the US population kept growing at a fast rate, the new agricultural lands had been needed and growing industry provided backing for expansion. So, for a long-term successful opposition to all of the above, Spain and its colonies (at least Mexico) need to have similar processes in place starting from the early 1810s. This POD will require a lot of details and considerable research.
This TL is neither about the US nor about Spain: neither of them, except for the Alaska Purchase, had serious economic relations with Russia and pretty much the same goes for the diplomatic relations. There is some trade in both cases, the ships may visit the ports (Manila being special case), if the American ships are going to the Northern Pacific then there will be some poaching issues, but that’s pretty much it. The only potentially serious incident ITTL may be related to Japan and unpleasant surprise for Commander Perry but even then, there is not going to be a direct confrontation. In OTL Russian imports of iron to the US dwindled to non-existence in the first half of the XIX and this leaves just the US exports of cotton, which are not critically important after domestic production in CA picks up.
With Spain, well Russia may be importing wine (in OTL the French were prevalent but the Spanish wines are great so why not) and from time to time selling some grain and perhaps iron and some other items but even by the purely geographic reasons France and Britain are better positioned to sell the manufactured goods so I have problem figuring out what would make for a mutually interesting big scale trade.
This is pretty much all that I’m planning to write on these two countries for a predictable future but please fell free to continue this subject: so far, it is a nice addition to the main TL.
I think there is a good way to curb Manifest Destiny a bit and it's simple. It is that Spain sells Louisiana to the Americans, it is easy to do. First the French would have to sell it to the Spanish, which is easy because they had an agreement.
Finally the Spanish would sell it to the Americans about a decade later, along with Florida. If Spain sells Louisiana it is also the one that marks the border, it also helps that they started an early colonization in Oregon and are developing California as well. From what it seems, all that manifest destiny seems to have been coined by a journalist who supported the annexation of Texas, when it was already independent.
If Texas doesn't get Anglo settlers, then it won't be a powder keg. Without Texas the phrase is not popularized.
Another thing, Americans are racist and anti-Catholic, if California, Oregon and Texas have a large Hispanic population then they won't want them.
In addition, the US still has the problem of slavery. If there is no war until the civil war breaks out, then everything will be fine.
Aside from Spain, do you seriously think the US would go to war with a stable Mexico without the Texas problem?
Finally the Spanish would sell it to the Americans about a decade later, along with Florida. If Spain sells Louisiana it is also the one that marks the border, it also helps that they started an early colonization in Oregon and are developing California as well. From what it seems, all that manifest destiny seems to have been coined by a journalist who supported the annexation of Texas, when it was already independent.
If Texas doesn't get Anglo settlers, then it won't be a powder keg. Without Texas the phrase is not popularized.
Another thing, Americans are racist and anti-Catholic, if California, Oregon and Texas have a large Hispanic population then they won't want them.
In addition, the US still has the problem of slavery. If there is no war until the civil war breaks out, then everything will be fine.
Aside from Spain, do you seriously think the US would go to war with a stable Mexico without the Texas problem?
But that's still the problem of them lacking both the money and infrastructure to send so many people (who are better off in Spain working on it's infant industrialization) across the ocean and into lands that are very sparsely populated, with little economic attraction other than dry land and who's often the constant Target of raids by horse mounted indians with guns, Spain did attempt to colonize the region in serious manner for mutiple times yet the success was very limited for very valid reasons.
Especially because Spain still has to deal with industrializing and modernizing itself, try and keep Portuguese Brazil from expanding in south America and make sure the colonies are being run smoothly. But in the case of something like Texas and California independence movements going off like they did otl, I don't see the Spanish having as much success as Mexico did unfortunately, especially because in their eyes they would be losing what's essentially desert with little population who's plagued by hostile indians, better cut off their loses and make a deal where it leaves them getting money and save some face instead of fighting for nothing.
Spain may be going through difficult times with the Carlist wars but that does not mean that the colonies are exactly the same as at the beginning of the 19th century, that would be naive, when they are practically independent politically and economically and have had a long period of stability. Given the above, I doubt that Brazil will even come close to being the big dog of South America or that any independence movement will have much success in New Spain.
I doubt that California or Texas have those problems, I had to read the reforms again and I have a map of how things are.
I am going to be clear, although Spain has many problems, our author friend also said that the Infante Gabrielle had a greater impact and initiated reforms. Although not all the reforms could be carried out, the one in the colonies did, when reading everything again it seems that there was a substantial increase in money with the reforms.
In addition, Texas and California are two independent territories of New Spain, the author only left us a link to know what happened in Latin America and I have to fill in the blanks.
If you want to know what happened in California and Texas I will tell you, both are captain generals. California is directed or was by Alejandro Malaspina, who started a process of colonization recruiting people from all the colonies as settlers. He also used freed slaves (slavery was abolished throughout the empire), not forgetting that he made a rapprochement with Indians who made pacts with him.
Brazil, on the other hand, at this point is not centralized and is more like a bunch of separate colonies. Brazil has also seen during the last decades the independence of the US, and the increase of autonomy of Hispanic America. I think it is much more likely that Brazil will fight for more autonomy.
Finally, it omits Louisiana and Florida.
I am going to be clear, although Spain has many problems, our author friend also said that the Infante Gabrielle had a greater impact and initiated reforms. Although not all the reforms could be carried out, the one in the colonies did, when reading everything again it seems that there was a substantial increase in money with the reforms.
In addition, Texas and California are two independent territories of New Spain, the author only left us a link to know what happened in Latin America and I have to fill in the blanks.
If you want to know what happened in California and Texas I will tell you, both are captain generals. California is directed or was by Alejandro Malaspina, who started a process of colonization recruiting people from all the colonies as settlers. He also used freed slaves (slavery was abolished throughout the empire), not forgetting that he made a rapprochement with Indians who made pacts with him.
Brazil, on the other hand, at this point is not centralized and is more like a bunch of separate colonies. Brazil has also seen during the last decades the independence of the US, and the increase of autonomy of Hispanic America. I think it is much more likely that Brazil will fight for more autonomy.
Finally, it omits Louisiana and Florida.
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Nice update on Sweden , I'll add NZ when I make next map.
Regarding the Spanish empire, personally the best solution for Spain would be Adams -Onis treaty. Short term Spain needs money to recover from Carlist wars and modernize it's Navy (long term industrialization could be achieved via French, British and potentially Russian investment and credits , France being the leader in that regard).
But short sale of surplus territories that are hard to defend and require money to develop is the best solution.
So my proposal would be to sell Louisiana (minus New Orleans), Florida and Oregon to the US and use the money to build the navy, to start the process of industrialization and focus on development of California only (opposed to trying to develop all territories).
This also would keep US busy and of the Spanish backs for a while which is always the plus, of course it would be only matter of time until US returns but by then Spain should be ready and US should have it's own problems (slavery, civil war, etc).
Regarding the Spanish empire, personally the best solution for Spain would be Adams -Onis treaty. Short term Spain needs money to recover from Carlist wars and modernize it's Navy (long term industrialization could be achieved via French, British and potentially Russian investment and credits , France being the leader in that regard).
But short sale of surplus territories that are hard to defend and require money to develop is the best solution.
So my proposal would be to sell Louisiana (minus New Orleans), Florida and Oregon to the US and use the money to build the navy, to start the process of industrialization and focus on development of California only (opposed to trying to develop all territories).
This also would keep US busy and of the Spanish backs for a while which is always the plus, of course it would be only matter of time until US returns but by then Spain should be ready and US should have it's own problems (slavery, civil war, etc).
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Given their sheer size, Brazil will always be the top dog of south America, even if they don't go around pushing their weight, but as the Spanish have reformed their empire, I'm sure the Portuguese would do the same to further centralized the place and make it more functional.
I could see more autonomy but there never was a really strong independence movement on Portuguese America, so asides from some basic reforms, Portugal dosen't have to do much and let them run things themselves, although something like pushing with the conquest of Cisplatina/Uruguay is something both Portuguese and Brazilians agreed on and now with the colonies being basically independent, it means they would have a easier time invading.
Well that's interesting, if Portugal/Brazil invade combined with US invasion i don't think Spain would be able to defend on three fronts.
Generally other proposal i have would be for Mexico to gain independence and for history of N. America to go more or less the same (with little delay) while Spain keeps it's possessions in the South America. It's far easier to defend against just one enemy and this resolves American/Spanish issue.
Just a proposition really and not out of the realm of possibility.
Alright, so here is a map of the new situation after the Austrian collapse and the Sweden-Prussia swap. Incidentally Poland is getting pretty large, have all their core lands except Posen and West Prussia. Since they have a population roughly equal to Prussia, and probably at least as competent right now, they are going to be casting very tempted looks at Posen. I didn't take you 100% literally and let Prussia keep a thin strip in southern Pomorskie that follows a majorish road there so they can still move troops by land to East Prussia if they want without having to go through a diplomatic dance, since Prussians clearly considered having a land connection important given their weak navy. Almost exactly even trade population-wise, 250,000 for both Bremen-Verdun and the new West Prussia territories, neither with any notable population centers. Population in 1848 would have been roughly 45% German, 40% Kashubian, 15% Polish.
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That's nice. But now I believe that Prussia needs Moltke... Maybe in the war with Austria they also fight Poland as well.
Independent Mexico? I don't think so, perhaps because the colonies already got what they wanted. Greater autonomy.
On the other hand, does anyone know what the language issue is. Without Great Britain and later the US becoming super powers as languages evolve. Can English still become the most important language?
On the other hand, does anyone know what the language issue is. Without Great Britain and later the US becoming super powers as languages evolve. Can English still become the most important language?
Well that would probably be anticlimactic if that is at the same time. Even with Moltke they are a lot smaller than OTL (though admittedly so is Austria) and a 2 on 1 is likely to go badly. I suppose they could do like they did with France OTL and dangle a concession of Posen to keep Poland neutral and then declare "tough luck" once they've defeated Austria. Because otherwise Poland is going to jump on Prussia unless Russia uses very big, very overt stick diplomacy on Poland.
Spain is not going to be able to keep the Mexican Concession lands. Their grip was just not strong enough. They are more powerful than Mexico, on the other hand they will not care as much and likely will have less forces readily available than Mexico in theater. I am of the school of thought that by the end of the 7 Years War at the latest, some form of Anglo or American expansion (either under USA/British control or as independent states) to the Pacific is nearly inevitable, the British colonies just had an order of magnitude more people north of the Rio Grande than all other European Powers combined. Spain also did not achieve much settlement in Northern Mexico and neither did Mexico (actually thanks to Comanche and Apache raids the population of Northern Mexico was probably *dropping* prior to the Mexican-American War).
The good news for Spain (if they still control Mexico which I doubt) is that there isn't really any reason for those to keep the land and they won't have the same emotional attachment as Mexico. Pretty easy to sell land for a suitably high price like Russia, perhaps without there being any war (just some American defacto gaining and then buying in Texas, California, and/or Deseret). Here is what I think is the best longterm border (base map from Wikipedia like usual). Basically compared to OTL Mexico, Spain/Mexico keeps the Nueces Strip then the border runs along the Pecos river and directedly north to the 36°30′ parallel and follows that to the sea. Keeps the populations in Neuces, New Mexico, and southern Alta California under Spanish/Mexican control. Their population (a few hundred) and control in the pink area outside Texas was nearly non-existent (but that part of Texas is going to get utterly swamped by Americans in the long run) . Lands in yellow are conversely pretty marginal from an American perspective, very different from the places they are used to settling. It is a pity war happened since both sides could have gotten 90% of what they wanted diplomatically.
Spain is not going to be able to keep the Mexican Concession lands. Their grip was just not strong enough. They are more powerful than Mexico, on the other hand they will not care as much and likely will have less forces readily available than Mexico in theater. I am of the school of thought that by the end of the 7 Years War at the latest, some form of Anglo or American expansion (either under USA/British control or as independent states) to the Pacific is nearly inevitable, the British colonies just had an order of magnitude more people north of the Rio Grande than all other European Powers combined. Spain also did not achieve much settlement in Northern Mexico and neither did Mexico (actually thanks to Comanche and Apache raids the population of Northern Mexico was probably *dropping* prior to the Mexican-American War).
The good news for Spain (if they still control Mexico which I doubt) is that there isn't really any reason for those to keep the land and they won't have the same emotional attachment as Mexico. Pretty easy to sell land for a suitably high price like Russia, perhaps without there being any war (just some American defacto gaining and then buying in Texas, California, and/or Deseret). Here is what I think is the best longterm border (base map from Wikipedia like usual). Basically compared to OTL Mexico, Spain/Mexico keeps the Nueces Strip then the border runs along the Pecos river and directedly north to the 36°30′ parallel and follows that to the sea. Keeps the populations in Neuces, New Mexico, and southern Alta California under Spanish/Mexican control. Their population (a few hundred) and control in the pink area outside Texas was nearly non-existent (but that part of Texas is going to get utterly swamped by Americans in the long run) . Lands in yellow are conversely pretty marginal from an American perspective, very different from the places they are used to settling. It is a pity war happened since both sides could have gotten 90% of what they wanted diplomatically.
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Great Britain will still be superpower (or to better say it will achieve something similar to otl), even if it doesn't have some of it's colonies and difference between it and rest of Europe isn't as great ( due to France not killing itself and most of Europe and Russia not self sabotaging, though on other hand German space isn't as developed) British still have other otl elements that made it what it was otl and it still holds India and rest of it's otl colonies, plus it still has great world reach due to access to the world ocean so expect them to stay significant.
That's a good long term solution and Spain does need cash, i could see this being titled as purchase of the century.
I think they can keep Texas and California, on the other hand an early gold find could help them look for a settlement. On the other hand, if someone wants to know what happens in Spanish America, then here is the link:
alternathistory.com
This is what the author basically gave about the events in Spanish America.
Глава II - Реформы габриэлиносов (Gran España V) - Альтернативная История
Глава II - Реформы габриэлиносов (Gran España V) - Альтернативная История
alternathistory.com
My guess is it happens in 2 bites. First ~1835 for Texas since Spain will be able to recognize that like Florida a few decades earlier, it just is not sustainable. Then the Mormons (northernest extent of any presence was Los Vegas area) and Gold Rush happens. The Gold Rush was going to happen roughly the same time regardless of the Mexican American war, with Sutter's settlement (or a similar one ATL). The only presence in northern California was around San Francisco, and even that was only 200 non-natives. So a lot of 49ers will get there by the time Spain can get enough soldiers there to do anything. I suspect Spain will try to stick around for a few years holding San Francisco and skimming their share of the gold until 1855 or so as the Americans become increasingly numerous and restive and it becomes clear Peak Gold has happened. Then sell those areas and throw in Oregon where they have no real presence anyway.
Apart from everything I said. Because people think that US expansion is inevitable, they talk as if all the factors that had to do with it are still there and everything is the same.
Spain has begun to colonize California in 1790 and has been successful as shown. Everything is so different and they want it to be the same when it is not.
Spain: Oh yeah we're going to let those American settlers through even though we know it's a bad idea. It's not like anything would go wrong!
Hell now I know how @Mitridates the Great feels!
Spain has begun to colonize California in 1790 and has been successful as shown. Everything is so different and they want it to be the same when it is not.
Spain: Oh yeah we're going to let those American settlers through even though we know it's a bad idea. It's not like anything would go wrong!
Hell now I know how @Mitridates the Great feels!
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Yes, is exactly what I think about people treating as a national tragedy the US gaining less territory than OTL even if is only an inch square of land less than OTL