No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

[alexmilman]

149. In Russia

“I once talked to you about the freedom of our peasants, and therefore tried to alleviate the situation of my peasants as much as possible, giving them more will. But experience has proved that where the landlord's power stops over them, the arbitrariness of the government begins, or, better to say, the arbitrariness of a petty official who, under the guise of service, allows himself to rob and corrupt them…The Landlords form a transitional power between the throne and the serfdom, and therefore it is beneficial for us to protect the latter from the predatory arbitrariness of provincial bureaucrats.”
Catherine II to Diderot
“The peasantry maintains all other parts of society and by its works deserves special respect...”
Paul I
“It is much better for it to happen from above than from below.”
Alexander II about abolishment of a serfdom
“I have only two types of the subjects: the loyal ones and disloyal ones.”
Nicholas I
​

1775. Moscow

Acquisition of the new territories brought an obvious question about their integration into the empire.

Szlachta. Preserving historic rights and liberties of the local nobility was not even considered seriously. Whatever szlachta of these territories may think about itself was quite irrelevant. Now they were subjects of the Emperor of Russia and the recent war demonstrated that as a military force they are pretty much worthless. So they had two options: either accept the Russian laws or emigrate.

• For those who decided to stay certain accommodations had been made so that their children would be qualified for the military and administrative service in the empire. An university had been open in Minsk and the military schools in Minsk and Mogilev. The adults could apply to the service just by passing an exam.​
• Those who wanted to leave could sell their estates either to the private buyers or to the state.​

Catholic Church was not specifically oppressed but its affairs had been put under control of the Synod’s Department of the non-Orthodox confessions. Existing schools and “academies” were allowed to function. However, the lands had been subjected to the same treatment as those of the Orthodox Church.

Serfs. A need to integrate the new territories provided an opening for a broader reform, implementation of which so far had been postponed. The first steps actually had been made after Peter’s accession to the throne:

• The serfs had been included in procedure of swearing the loyalty oath to the new sovereign, which underscored their status as subjects of the empire.
• On his own lands [1] he reduced peasant duties (in particular, there was a two-day corvee), allowed peasants to get engaged in any type of work during corvee-free time, issued loans to peasants, built new roads in villages, opened two free medical hospitals, built several free schools for peasant children (including disabled children), as well as several new churches. In the state like Russian Empire example set by the monarch was not, of course, a mandatory to copy but it could not be simply ignored, either. Especially by those close to the court.
• In 1767 [2] Peter issued “Manifesto On 3 Days Corvee Labor” which forbade the serf owners to force their serfs to work on Sundays and major religious holidays and limited a number of corvee labor days to 3 per week. Unlike the personal example, the Manifesto was a mandatory document.
• Decree on the release by landlords of their peasants to conclude conditions based on mutual consent. According to it the landlords received the right to liberate serfs (for ransom or some agreed upon duties) alone and by villages with the issuance of a land plot. This one proved to be not very effective because Russian nobility was rather reluctant to do such a thing. However, it established a legal base for the future reforms.
• Decree on Quitrent allowed serf owners to replace corvee with the cash payments while allowing serfs to start their own businesses, work for salaries outside the estates, etc. This was much more popular: getting cash always was a high priority for the Russian nobility. Now the burden of selling the agricultural products or getting cash by some other means had been shifting to the peasants. And one of the surest ways to get cash was to work in the growing industrial plants.​

The Jews did not receive too much of an administrative attention just because nobody was quite sure what, if anything, has to be done about them. So far those acquired during the LNW were paying taxes and not causing any noticeable problems and if they looked a little bit peculiar and had some religious disputes among themselves, it was their problem. [3]

Now the time was considered ripe for a sweeping reform. A need to establish a proper order on the new territories was a convenient excuse (and limiting rights of the local nobility also was useful) but in a reality there were 2 fundamental factors simplifying the process:

• Due to the policies of preceding reign percentage of the serfs in an adult male population already fell between 40% and out of those an overwhelming majority belonged to the estates indebted to the State Bank. Which meant that potential opposition did not have a strong financial & economic base.

• At least equally important was the fact that, while the officers corps of the Russian army was almost completely noble (with the exception of few lowest rank officers), percentage of those from the estate-owning families was in the low single digits and the same applied to the civic administration. In other words, a potential opposition did not have a “tool” willing to support its demands.

By Reform of 1776 the peasants received personal freedom, but without granting a land plot. The land remained the property of the landlords who leased it to the peasants on individual or communal basis with a minimal term of a lease being 2 years. The lease assumed a possibility of either corvee or quitrent. The peasants preserved their houses (with the vegetable plots), their livestock and their own agricultural implements. They were also permitted to buy the land if the landlord agrees to sell. Of course, this left open a question of what peasant is going to do with his house if the lease is not renewed but why would anybody care about these trifles? The landless peasants (most of them household servants) became the salaried employees.

Of course, introduction of a fundamental change, even if it was seriously skewed in the favor of landowners, did not produce an uniform enthusiasm among that social group. Actually, it did not produce an uniform enthusiasm among the liberated peasants either: good or bad, a landlord owner used to have a certain responsibility for well-being of his/her serfs but now this part of a system was gone.

But there were no peasant uprisings on any noticeable scale and the noble revolt did not materialize either so probably with a passage of time the things will going to take care of themselves.

On a cheerful side

In 1776 [4] the exciting news came from the Ural region. A man named Maxim Stefanovich Kozhevnikov, of Beloyarsk, found a few green crystals in the roots of a tree on the bank of the Tokovaya River. He took the stones to Yekaterinburg to sell them, and a small sample was delivered to Yakov Kokovin, commander of the Yekaterinburg Imperial Lapidary Manufactory and the Gornoshitovsky Marble Factory. Kokovin believed that the stone was emerald. Immediately, on 21 January 1776, he traveled with the workers and necessary tools to the place indicated by Maxim Kozhevnikov on the Tokovaya River. Despite the snow and cold, he started prospecting and, on 23 January 1776, a mica vein was found. While following it, several crystals of good quality emerald were discovered.

Further events developed very rapidly. Soon after the extraction of the first emeralds, the best samples were sent to Yekaterinburg, where they were cut at the Yekaterinburg Imperial lapidary manufactory, and later presented to the vice-president of the Cabinet of His Imperial Majesty. Almost all known emerald deposits were discovered between 1776 and 1790: Troitsky Mine (now Pervomayskoye) in 1776; Mariinsky Mine (now Malyshevskoe) in 1777; Hitny Mine (now Red Army Mine) in 1790. For the discovery of eme-ralds, Maxim Kozhevnikov was awarded a cash prize of 200 rubles. Yakov Kokovin was awarded the Order of St. Vladimir of the 4th Degree, which gave the right of hereditary nobility.
From 1876 to 1780, Kokovin supervised the exploration and extraction of emeralds at the Sretenskoye Mine, where a unique 2226-gram emerald was found.

__________
[1] Not to be confused with the “state lands” where the peasants had extensive rights.
[2] 30 years ahead of the OTL schedule.
[3] In OTL the Russian merchants started complaining about their competition to Elizabeth and later CII also had to live up to her “more Russian than the Russians” image. IITL these complaints will produce little sympathy: the government is quite pragmatic and whoever is generating the state income is a good guy as long as he is a loyal subject. The losers has to learn how to compete because the foreign merchants are not going to be forgiving.
[4] In OTL in 1831.

 

[alexmilman]

150. Dilemma

“Even to observe neutrality you must have a strong government.”
Alexander Hamilton
“The duty of holding a neutral conduct may be inferred without anything more, from the obligation which justice and humanity impose on every nation, in cases in which it is free to act, to maintain inviolate the relations of peace and amity toward other nations.”
George Washington
“Do you want to live without problems? Don't touch what doesn't concern you.”
Unkown author
​

1776. A little misunderstanding that Britain had with its American colonies was clearly getting out of hands. Not only weren’t the rebels crashed but they declared themselves independent, which made it necessary for the British government to do something drastic: either to give up on the colonies or to beat the rebels into submission.

The first option would bee too humiliating for the British prestige of a Great Power so the second one had been chosen because it looked quite logical:

• The whole thing was obviously just a big revolt, a work of a full few miscreants who had rallied an armed rabble to their cause and upon arrival of a significant British course “the vast majority of Americans, who were loyal but cowed by the terroristic tactics ... would rise up, kick out the rebels, and restore loyal government in each colony. “
• As the means of implementation. Britain had the most powerful navy in the world, a well-trained army and an efficient system of public finance that could easily fund the war.

Well, there was actually a problem with the “means”. In 1775 the British army was a volunteer force suffering from inadequate spending, inefficient recruitment system. It had no formal command structure and while there were numerous veterans among the officers, system of purchasing commissions generally favored the rich and wealthy individuals lacking any formal military education [1] or practical experience often found their way into positions of high responsibility, diluting the effectiveness of a regiment. In 1776, there were 119 generals of various grades in the British Army. However, since generals never retired, perhaps a third of this number were too old or infirm to command in the field. Others were opposed to war against the colonists or unwilling to serve for years in America.

The Army was a deeply unpopular profession with one contentious issue being pay. A Private infantryman was paid a wage of just 8d. per day, the same pay as for a New Model Army infantryman 130 years earlier. The rate of pay in the army was insufficient to meet the rising costs of living which did not help entice potential recruits, as service was nominally for life. To increase voluntary enrollment, Parliament offered a bounty of £1.10s for every recruit. As the war dragged on, Parliament became desperate for manpower; criminals were offered military service to escape legal penalties, and deserters were pardoned if they re-joined their units. Impressment, essentially conscription by the "press gang", was a favored recruiting method, though it was unpopular with the public, leading many to enlist in local militias to avoid regular service.

Competition between naval and army press gangs, and even between rival ships or regiments, frequently resulted in brawls between the gangs in order to secure recruits for their unit.

In 1776 the British army had 45,130 out of which only 14,374 could be sent to America. The rest had to be kept in Britain, Ireland and Gibraltar. It looked as the easiest solution was to hire the foreign troops and it was seemingly logical to start with the state that (a) had the biggest army, (b) was rather friendly to Britain and (c) was not at war with anybody and thus able to spare the troops. As a result, Peter II was approached with a proposal to rent 30-40,000 of his soldiers and to get Minorca Island as a compensation [2].

Well, of course, Britain was a friendly state and the biggest trade partner but there were some serious arguments against the whole idea:

• Renting the troops was a popular practice in some short of cash minor German states but putting the Emperor of Russia into the same category could be considered an offensive.
• Sending Russian troops to fight under a foreign command in a war in which Russia did not participate was a bad idea: the well-trained troops would be wasted without any gain for Russia.
• Proposal regarding Minorca was both meaningless in the practical terms (Russia did not have interests in the Western Mediterranean and for the transit purposes there were well-established operational bases in Palermo and Naples. OTOH, accepting this proposal could seriously sour relations with Spain and, while it was not a big trade partner, its ports had been routinely used on a route between the Baltic and Black Seas.
• Friendship with Britain was based upon the mutual trade interests and would not suffer from a polite refusal. If anything, Britain hardly could afford breaking relations over this issue.

So the polite answer was that it would be a very bad precedent for the Russian monarch to get involved into a misunderstanding between His British Majesty and his subjects. [3]

As a result, treaties with German states (mainly Hesse-Kassel and Brunswick) were negotiated for a further 18,000 men half of which were stationed in garrisons to release regular British units from other theaters.




______________
[1] As I understand, the only military school at that time was the Royal Military Academy in Woolwich, (founded in 1741 for the training of officers for the Royal Artillery and Royal Engineers).
[2] In OTL the offer had been made to CII.
[3] “Subjects” meant that at that moment Russia is not recognizing the colonies’ claim to independence, which was supposed to sweeten the pill.

 

[dunHozzie]

Between this and the League (should you choose to get that in place) we'll certainly get an USA. OTL's course made the most sense, so I'm glad you took it.

 

[alexmilman]

151. Staying out of trouble

“Instructions for use of the lawn mower: Do not point the device at living people in order to avoid winding individual parts of the body on the moving parts of the device.”
“I do not undertake to repeat the detailed content of the instructions I read. The point was that I would have to do everything I had to do, and I shouldn't do anything I shouldn't do.”
“Only when you read the explanation of the previously received instruction do you guess that you did not understand the instruction itself or the explanations to it.”
Unknown authors
“How are you using your head? - I’m eating with it”
Gashek ‘Brave soldier Schweik’

​

For a while it looked like the ongoing fighting in America is going to be “other people business” but this expectation proved to be excessively optimistic. In 1776 Ben Franklin arrived to France and immediately became a toast of Paris as a rustic genius from the New World (fur hat was quite helpful in cultivating this image ).

France was looking for a way to get revenge for its losses in the 7YW and its ruling class already was well into the self-destructive modus operandi which made the “revolutionary ideas” and “philosophy” quite popular among the aristocracy so Franklin was a right man arriving in a right time. His main task was to get military supplies for free and there was a man ready to organize the process.

Pierre-Augustin Caron de Beaumarchais, being an energetic supporter of American independence, lobbied the government on behalf of the rebels and organized covert aid from the French and Spanish governments to supply arms and financial assistance to the rebels in the years before France's formal entry into the war in 1778 [1]. After receiving consent from Louis XVI and Vergennes who did not want, yet, to openly break with Britain, he founded a commercial enterprise, Roderigue Hortalez and Company, supported by the French and Spanish crowns, that supplied the American rebels with weapons, munitions, clothes and provisions, all of which would never be paid for. This policy came to fruition in 1777 when John Burgoyne's army capitulated at Saratoga to a rebel force largely clothed and armed by the supplies Beaumarchais had been sending.

Intermission. None of the Baltic League members had any noticeable business with the rebellious colonies even prior to the rebellion. Of course, by the earlier treaties the League members had been permitted to conduct some direct trade with them (except for a comprehensive list of the excluded items) but the main interest was in the Caribbean islands (British, French, Danish and Dutch) which supplied sugar, tobacco, cocoa and some other important items.

The 13 colonies had very little of interest to offer. What was a nomenclature of goods exported from Salem, MA, which was at that time one of the busiest ports? Timber products, furs, maple syrup, copper, livestock products, salted fish, whale oil. Colonies further to the South would add tobacco, indigo and sugar. Most of these items were either of no interest to the League or could be obtained cheaper from the Caribbean colonies. OTOH, the colonies were not wealthy enough to became a major buyer of the export materials produced by the League. So there could be an occasional merchant ship, usually on a multi-step barter trip, or simply stopping to get repairs or supplies but mostly it was Britain-oriented “triangular trade”.

The colonies started getting reputation for ship-building but so far it was cheaper, if needed, to order a ship in Britain or the Netherlands.

Of course, the military supply shipments, especially after France and Spain entered the war, produced inevitable reaction from the Brits. Their warships started boarding and searching the ships of European countries uninvolved into the conflict looking for a vaguely defined “contraband”. Captains of these British warships could not really be blamed because they were following the instructions and authors of these instructions could say in their own defense that it was reasonable to assume that the said captains are going to use their brains thus avoiding the obviously stupid, and probably diplomatically dangerous, actions. OTOH, why the captains should arbitrarily interpret the official instructions risking a court martial instead of executing them precisely?

As far as the commercial interests were involved, Britain was by far more important trade partner of the Baltic League. Pretty much the same goes for British interest in the Baltic trade. So there was no real reason for the British warships searching and even confiscating the ships belonging to the League members but there was nothing in their instructions on the subject and you can’t do wrong by following the instruction while using your own judgement easily can have you court-martialed. By September 1778, at least 59 ships were taken prize – 8 Danish (and Norwegian), 16 Swedish and 35 Dutch.

At that point situation ceased to be “other people business”. Of course, “nobody” cared about the Dutch but the Danish and Swedish ships were a completely different issue and how on Earth a ship sailing to Archangelsk or Stockholm can be carrying contraband to the colonies? Why a reliable supply of sugar and other “necessities” from the Caribbean islands should be interrupted by the Brits with whom the League had friendly relations?

All three courts had been seriously pissed off and a variety of options had been discussed. After all, just on the Baltic Sea the League had 90 ships of the line, not to mention the numerous frigates and a big pool of the potential privateers so even a full-scale war was not out of question and, with France and Spain already at war with Britain, this could end up really bad for the Brits. Then, there was an option of sending the caravans under strong escorts. Then, there was an option of fully closing the Baltic Sea (and to watch who is going to give up first) or arrest the British ships and goods in the League’s ports, etc. However, eventually the cooler heads prevailed and the League declared “Neutrality Act” which formulated principles of the neutral shipping during the times of war:

• Ships of the neutral states have right to sail near the coasts of the belligerent countries.
• “Hostile” property carried by the neutral ships in inviolable except for the military materials.
• Blockade is being respected only if access to a port is restricted by the military activities (aka, at least one hostile ship must be present).

These principles had to be used in the cases when there is a disputable property on the captured ships.

After weighting the pros and contras the British government declared that it is going to respect the Neutrality Act and the issue of arrested ships and goods had been settled to everybody’s satisfaction.

For quite a while the only item of interest related the the events in America were news that in 1779 Casimir Pulaski had been killed leading a cavalry charge on the British battery.

___________
[1] He later struggled to recover money he had personally invested in the scheme.

 

[alexmilman]

Between this and the League (should you choose to get that in place) we'll certainly get an USA. OTL's course made the most sense, so I'm glad you took it.

Well, no need to multiply the realities beyond necessary minimum.

And, anyway, I’m not up to the task of inventing the alt-ARW.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Well, no need to multiply the realities beyond necessary minimum.

And, anyway, I’m not up to the task of inventing the alt-ARW.

"A good man always knows his limitations..." -- Inspector Harry Callahan.

 

[Chernabog90]

151. Staying out of trouble

“Instructions for use of the lawn mower: Do not point the device at living people in order to avoid winding individual parts of the body on the moving parts of the device.”
“I do not undertake to repeat the detailed content of the instructions I read. The point was that I would have to do everything I had to do, and I shouldn't do anything I shouldn't do.”
“Only when you read the explanation of the previously received instruction do you guess that you did not understand the instruction itself or the explanations to it.”
Unknown authors
“How are you using your head? - I’m eating with it”
Gashek ‘Brave soldier Schweik’

​

For a while it looked like the ongoing fighting in America is going to be “other people business” but this expectation proved to be excessively optimistic. In 1776 Ben Franklin arrived to France and immediately became a toast of Paris as a rustic genius from the New World (fur hat was quite helpful in cultivating this image ).
View attachment 747931
France was looking for a way to get revenge for its losses in the 7YW and its ruling class already was well into the self-destructive modus operandi which made the “revolutionary ideas” and “philosophy” quite popular among the aristocracy so Franklin was a right man arriving in a right time. His main task was to get military supplies for free and there was a man ready to organize the process.
View attachment 747933
Pierre-Augustin Caron de Beaumarchais, being an energetic supporter of American independence, lobbied the government on behalf of the rebels and organized covert aid from the French and Spanish governments to supply arms and financial assistance to the rebels in the years before France's formal entry into the war in 1778 [1]. After receiving consent from Louis XVI and Vergennes who did not want, yet, to openly break with Britain, he founded a commercial enterprise, Roderigue Hortalez and Company, supported by the French and Spanish crowns, that supplied the American rebels with weapons, munitions, clothes and provisions, all of which would never be paid for. This policy came to fruition in 1777 when John Burgoyne's army capitulated at Saratoga to a rebel force largely clothed and armed by the supplies Beaumarchais had been sending.

Intermission. None of the Baltic League members had any noticeable business with the rebellious colonies even prior to the rebellion. Of course, by the earlier treaties the League members had been permitted to conduct some direct trade with them (except for a comprehensive list of the excluded items) but the main interest was in the Caribbean islands (British, French, Danish and Dutch) which supplied sugar, tobacco, cocoa and some other important items.



View attachment 747941
The 13 colonies had very little of interest to offer. What was a nomenclature of goods exported from Salem, MA, which was at that time one of the busiest ports? Timber products, furs, maple syrup, copper, livestock products, salted fish, whale oil. Colonies further to the South would add tobacco, indigo and sugar. Most of these items were either of no interest to the League or could be obtained cheaper from the Caribbean colonies. OTOH, the colonies were not wealthy enough to became a major buyer of the export materials produced by the League. So there could be an occasional merchant ship, usually on a multi-step barter trip, or simply stopping to get repairs or supplies but mostly it was Britain-oriented “triangular trade”.

The colonies started getting reputation for ship-building but so far it was cheaper, if needed, to order a ship in Britain or the Netherlands.


View attachment 747946

Of course, the military supply shipments, especially after France and Spain entered the war, produced inevitable reaction from the Brits. Their warships started boarding and searching the ships of European countries uninvolved into the conflict looking for a vaguely defined “contraband”. Captains of these British warships could not really be blamed because they were following the instructions and authors of these instructions could say in their own defense that it was reasonable to assume that the said captains are going to use their brains thus avoiding the obviously stupid, and probably diplomatically dangerous, actions. OTOH, why the captains should arbitrarily interpret the official instructions risking a court martial instead of executing them precisely?

As far as the commercial interests were involved, Britain was by far more important trade partner of the Baltic League. Pretty much the same goes for British interest in the Baltic trade. So there was no real reason for the British warships searching and even confiscating the ships belonging to the League members but there was nothing in their instructions on the subject and you can’t do wrong by following the instruction while using your own judgement easily can have you court-martialed. By September 1778, at least 59 ships were taken prize – 8 Danish (and Norwegian), 16 Swedish and 35 Dutch.

At that point situation ceased to be “other people business”. Of course, “nobody” cared about the Dutch but the Danish and Swedish ships were a completely different issue and how on Earth a ship sailing to Archangelsk or Stockholm can be carrying contraband to the colonies? Why a reliable supply of sugar and other “necessities” from the Caribbean islands should be interrupted by the Brits with whom the League had friendly relations?

All three courts had been seriously pissed off and a variety of options had been discussed. After all, just on the Baltic Sea the League had 90 ships of the line, not to mention the numerous frigates and a big pool of the potential privateers so even a full-scale war was not out of question and, with France and Spain already at war with Britain, this could end up really bad for the Brits. Then, there was an option of sending the caravans under strong escorts. Then, there was an option of fully closing the Baltic Sea (and to watch who is going to give up first) or arrest the British ships and goods in the League’s ports, etc. However, eventually the cooler heads prevailed and the League declared “Neutrality Act” which formulated principles of the neutral shipping during the times of war:

• Ships of the neutral states have right to sail near the coasts of the belligerent countries.
• “Hostile” property carried by the neutral ships in inviolable except for the military materials.
• Blockade is being respected only if access to a port is restricted by the military activities (aka, at least one hostile ship must be present).

These principles had to be used in the cases when there is a disputable property on the captured ships.
View attachment 747960
After weighting the pros and contras the British government declared that it is going to respect the Neutrality Act and the issue of arrested ships and goods had been settled to everybody’s satisfaction.

For quite a while the only item of interest related the the events in America were news that in 1779 Casimir Pulaski had been killed leading a cavalry charge on the British battery.
View attachment 747961

___________
[1] He later struggled to recover money he had personally invested in the scheme.

Well it seems France still would be in debt sooner or later

 

[alexmilman]

Well it seems France still would be in debt sooner or later

Nothing changes for France

 

[alexmilman]

152. Life is going on

“The guarantee of the security of any government is the vigilant police, headed by determined and knowledgeable people.”
Joseph Fouche
“Being notified about some of his actions, can't admire him enough”
Antoine Raymond Juan Gualbert Gabriel de Sartine [1] about Arkharov

“Who is smart, clearly distinguishes what's trifles and what's dangerous.”
Lope de Vega
“It's stupid thing to make problem out of every trifle. It's also stupid to grieve with all your heart about what is not important to you - and not to move your finger about what is essential to you.”
Baltasar Gracián y Morales
“The appearance of Russia at the conclusion of peace in Teshen was a big disaster for Europe, and France made a serious mistake by doing nothing to prevent it.”
Talleyrand
​

Met Nicholas Arkharov. Thing that one must to have was, of course, an efficient capital police and there was a man just made for this job. He started career as officer of the Guards but then was noticed during suppression of the Plague Revolt in Nizhny Novgorod [2] in 1771. With cruel measures, the authorities pacified the unrest, opened new hospitals and quarantines, ruthlessly burning the things of the sick, and the looters were shot on the spot. Arkharov, with his special ability of persuasion, called for the help of convicts, thieves, robbers, who were forgiven for previous iniquities for cleaning the city of the corpses. For his contribution Arkharov was promoted to colonel [3] and soon afterwards made a head of the Moscow police.

Arkharov's activity as chief policeman remained in the memory of Muscovites for a long time, although he caused fear rather than a warm feeling. And the appearance was extremely unsympathetic, even repulsive. "A gloomy long-nosed face," he was called. He was ugly, huge in stature; his look was heavy, excessively dense, his manners were unceremonious - all this terrified both ordinary people and subordinates.

Nikolai Petrovich proved himself as an unsurpassed detective, who can be called the "genius of investigation" in Russia. And it was impossible to imitate him: the secret of amazing professional success was in himself. An outstanding physiognomist, he knew how to read on people's faces what they hid in the soul, and often, only by looking at the suspect, determined his rightness or guilt. Of course, the police team recruited by him (the whole regiment of 8 battalions) also played a significant role, but it was not completely independent, but only clearly followed the orders of the authoritarian patron, which enjoyed indisputable authority.

Arkharov's right hand was nadvorny sovietnik Maxim Ivanovich Schwartz, a cruel soldafon, whose one name kept the whole of Moscow in fear. "This guy is dexterous and practical," Arkharov said about him, "although his soul is as dark as his last name" ("Schwartz" translated from German "black"). "The look of a clenched fist is very useful," this assistant chief policeman liked to repeat. Of course, the actions of Arkharov's people were cruel, but they eradicated theft and bribery, exposed the criminal gangs. At the same time, the methods he used in the search and investigation were striking in their originality and surprise. They will later be called deductive.

There is a legend that once the owner of the butcher shop turned to Arkharov, claiming that the scribe who went shopping at his shop grabbed the owner's purse with money. A scribe, of course, insisted that the purse was his. Nikolai Petrovich brought together both of them, listened and ordered to bring a pot with boiling water, into which he poured out coins. Then, looking closely at the water, he sentenced: "The money belongs to the butcher, and the scribe lies, dog!" It turns out that Arkharov just noticed drops of fat on the water, which prompted him to think: the butcher counted money with greasy fingers so the coins are his. In the XVIII century, such a logical construction seemed like a miracle; the scribe decided that Nikolai Petrovich was a sorcerer, and, frightened to death, confessed everything.
The fame of the talent of the Moscow Chief Policeman spread throughout Europe and finally reached Paris. The famous Monsieur de Sartin, who headed the royal police, himself a clever investigator and an unsurpassed detective who revealed many complicated cases, wrote letters to Moscow, where he expressed his admiration for Mr. Arkharov's methods. Since then, the Moscow chief policeman in high society began to be called "Russian de Sartin", which at that time was considered the height of recognition.
Besides dealing with the small-scale crime, there were some outstanding ones:

• Peter II ordered in France (the major supplier of the top of the line luxury items) a huge silver table service. It consisted of 3,274 items and weighed two tons. This work took two years for French masters and the cost was 282,292 rubles. After being shipped to St.Petersburg the set mysteriously disappeared. The case was important enough to get Arkharov involved and he found the stolen goods in a cellar near the home of St.Petersburg’s chief of police [4].

• The next major case was a precious XIV century icon of The Theotokos of Tolga in a bejeweled frame which disappeared from the court chapel. The frame cost up to 8,000 rubles but this was a non-issue comparing to the spiritual value of the icon. It took Arkharov a day to find the icon (without a frame).

While being rather scary for the lower classes, Arkharov was quite popular among the nobility of Moscow and famous for his hospitality.

The Moscow House of Arkharov represented a brilliant noble assembly. People of a noble world gathered in it, all famous foreigners hurried to get acquainted with this house. [5]

Enjoying the spectacle. In 1778 a rather bizarre thing, called Zwetschgenrummel in Austria and Kartoffelkrieg in Prussia [6] began over one more Hapsburgs’ attempt to increase their influence in the HRE by grabbing Bavaria after the extinction of the Bavarian branch of the House of Wittelsbach. Both sides managed to mobilize the big armies, Austria presumably 185,000 or more and Prussia & Saxony up to 165,000, after which a side with a bigger army and aggressive desires constructed huge fortified positions in Bohemia and went into a passive defense [7] waiting for being encircled by the opponent’s armies.

Not to be outdone in the strategic brilliance, Frederick II and Prince Henry, after encircling (more or less) the Austrians stopped, bringing up an obvious question why did they bother with their “pincer” movement to start with.

After “strategic part” of the war had been completed, both sides got themselves busy trying to fed their armies by looting the nearby potato fields and prune orchards.

Among the most noticeable activities of this war were exploits of Frederich Joseph, Count of Nauendorf, a Rittmeister (captain of cavalry) of the Wurmser Hussar Regiment, who at the start of a war with 50 hussars defeated the Prussian general Wunsch. Then, on August 7, 1778 with two squadrons of his regiment, Nauendorf led a raid against a Prussian convoy at Biebersdorf in the County of Kladsko. The surprised convoy surrendered, and Nauendorf captured its officers, 110 men, 476 horses, 240 wagons of flour, and 13 transport wagons. On 3 March 1779, Nauendorf raided the Berbersdorf again, this time with a larger force of infantry and hussars, and took the entire Prussian garrison as prisoner.

There were few more small-scale operations in which the Austrians tended to get an upper hand but for most of the 1778 both armies just had been staying on their positions with the troops dying in big numbers from starvation. Finally, when each side lost approximately 10,000, the leaders marched them back to the winter quarters where the soldiers still kept dying from the food shortages.

The diplomatic exchange was going on practically from the very beginning because MT was not too fond of her son’s ideas. As early as July 12 1778, Maria Theresa sent Baron Tugut to Frederick with a proposal to resume negotiations, only then notifying Joseph of her step. Having received the king's answer on July 21 about the conditions he wanted, she tried in vain to persuade Joseph II to negotiate. In August, Vergeren informally offered French mediation in the Austro-Prussian negotiations. Frederick, meanwhile, tried to involve Peter II in resolving the conflict, citing Austria's violation of imperial laws and family relations. Maria Theresa, aware of Frederick's correspondence with Peter, feared the invasion of Hungary by the Russian Expeditionary Force. On October 12, the Russian Ambassador to Vienna, Prince Golitsyn, presented to the Vienna court a note on the unfoundedness of Austria's claims to Bavaria accompanied by verbal announcement that if peace talks will not produce the results, Peter is ready to send 50,000 troops to Prussian help. At the same time, Peter issued a letter of authority to Prince Repnin to negotiate. Repnin went to Frederick II to determine the venue of the peace congress in agreement with Prussia, Austria and France. On March 10, 1779, a peace congress began in Teschen, then part of Austrian Silesia. Prussia was represented by Ambassador to Vienna Baron Ridezel[fr], Austria - Count Cobenzl, France - Baron de Breteuil, Russia - Prince Repnin. The trading for the terms of the peace treaty lasted about two months.

Despite its short duration, the war cost Prussia 17 million thalers or about 34 million florins, which exceeded the country's annual income. For the Habsburgs, the cost was higher. During the war, Austrian public debt grew by more than 30 million florins, in 1779 alone military expenditures amounted to almost 65 million florins, while in the previous year the entire income of the monarchy was measured in 50 million.

One of the consequences of the Bavarian Succession War and the Teshen Congress was the strengthening of Russia's position in Central Europe. Russia, along with France, acted as a guarantor of compliance with the terms not only of the Peace of Teshens, but also of the Constitution of the Holy Roman Empire, as the Peace of Teshen resumed the guarantees of the Treaty of Westphalia and Hubertusburg. As a result of the Teshen Congress, France lost its predominant position in Central Europe and was forced to put up with the strengthening of Russia's position.

On a positive side (for Russia) was a proven ability to keep playing Prussia against Austria and vice versa, preventing them from getting excessively strong. On a negative side, in a retrospect, was establishing of the direct links with Mainz, Trier, Cologne, as well as with Württemberg, Baden, Hesse-Kassel and Zweibrücken. In the case of a major European conflict these inks could result in a direct involvement into the affairs that were not in Russian interest….

______________
[1] Chief of the Paris police, credited with the famous principle “Cherchez la femme”.
[2] In OTL during the Plague Revolt in Moscow: he was a member of expedition headed by Grigory Orlov. IITL, with Moscow being a capital, the whole set of the OTL events, including Grigory Orlov being a prominent figure, would require too many changes but NN is a place important enough to attract government’s attention.
[3] Of the army, not the Guards.
[4] Well, in OTL he did discover a stolen silver table service set but it was not necessarily the one I’m talking about, so-called “Orlov’s service”. An idea of such an identification comes from a fictional set of books about Arkharov.
[5] In OTL this popularity was related to his younger brother who was a governor of Moscow while his famous elder brother was a governor (not to be confused with governor-general) of St-Petersburg.
[6] And referenced as War of the Bavarian Succession by the outsiders.
[7] Not being a military genius, I’m completely at loss on how this strategy could result in conquest of Bavaria.

 

[alexmilman]

153. Making conclusions

“The heyday of military sciences is possible only in peacetime.”
Don Aminado
“A wise man learns on other people mistakes and a fool on his own”
questionable wisdom [1]
“They never lie as much as during the war, after hunting and before the elections.”
Bismarck
“Military science is similar to the mechanics that, based on the consideration of moving bodies only in relation to their masses, would say that their forces are equal or not equal, because they are equal or not equal to their masses.”
Lev Tolstoy [2]

​

The Potato War could be somewhat on a silly side but it provided important diplomatic and military information which had to be studied and reacted upon.

Maria Theresa clearly did not have too many years left so personality of he successor was very important to figure out future Russian foreign policy. Joseph II felt the War of the Austrian Succession had shown that the House of Habsburg-Lorraineneeded a wider sphere of influence in the German-speaking parts of the Holy Roman Empire. Without this, the family could not count on the election of their chosen male candidate as emperor, nor could the family count on an uncontested succession to the Habsburg territories of Bohemia, Hungary and Croatia. For most of Joseph's adult life, he sought to strengthen his family's influence in German-speaking lands. For him, this meant the acquisition of German lands (generally better-developed economically), not lands in the eastern region of the Habsburg empire, even such strategic territories as Bukovina.

In his practical dealings he was seemingly prone to the secret negotiations and, if his handling of Charles IV Theodore, the Duke of Berg-Jülich and the main heir to the Bavarian throne, was illustrative, rather unscrupulous in his methods, especially if his partner was careless or weak. Knowing its poor legal grounds, Joseph negotiated a secret agreement with Charles Theodore shortly after Max Joseph's death. In this agreement (3 January 1778), Charles Theodore ceded Lower Bavaria to Austria in exchange for uncontested succession to the remainder of the duchy. Charles Theodore also hoped to acquire from Joseph some unencumbered parts of the Austrian Netherlands and parts of Further Austria that he could bequeath to his bastards, but this was not written into the agreement and Joseph was not a particularly generous man. According to the 3 January agreement between Joseph and Charles Theodore, fifteen thousand Austrian troops occupied Mindelheim, ultimately more territory than had been granted to Joseph. Charles Theodore realized that Joseph was not seriously planning to exchange Bavaria, or even a portion of it, for the entirety of the Austrian Netherlands. At best, he might acquire a few portions of it, perhaps Hainaut or Guelders, Luxembourg, Limburg, or various dispersed possessions most of which lay in southwestern Germany, but Joseph would never release any sizable portion of territory, and certainly not any territory of strategic military or commercial value. Not that this was characterized him in any negative way, taking into an account the prevailing political realities in Europe.

However, he clearly miscalculated the overall political situation clearly expecting that the family relations and existing treaty will automatically get France involved militarily on his side. He also did not quite expect that Frederick II will be ready to go to war just to dwarf his plans. It was also obvious that he is too stubborn to be influenced even by his mother, not to mention subordinate figures like Kaunitz and Cobenzl: when finding that Maria Theresa is conducted diplomatic talks behind his back he made a scandal and later Treaty of Teschen was signed pretty much against his will even if it was obvious that the war is not going anywhere and that the Hapsburg Empire is running out of money.

Then there was a military aspect of a war. To give credit where it is due, it looked like Fieldmarshal Lacy (whom Joseph retained regardless debacle of the Ottoman war) did a good job organizing the Austrian army. By the start of a war it had, against Prussia, 180 - 190,000 with 600 guns and during the war it size increased to over 300,000. But the good things pretty much ended there. The war plan composed by Lacy was purely defensive and, with the theater being in Bohemia, hardly could serve to protection of the annexations in Bavaria. The best and most energetic Austrian fieldmarshal, Laudon [3], was given a small army with which he was assigned an impossible task to defend all mountain passes: the war plan was designed by Lacy who was obsessed with the cordon strategy. As a result, the best thing Laudon could do was to avoid being defeated piecemeal by an enemy (Prince Henry), who was twice stronger [4]. While Austrian triple line of redoubts behind which their main army was hiding proved to be a reliable defense against the Prussian attacks, a reliable supply system on their own territory was not organized and the only actions worthy of noticing were raids led by the relatively junior commanders.

Why did Joseph took a personal command of an army while having neither relevant experience nor talent was anybody’s guess but, to make a long story short, it did not look like it would make sense for Russia to make its foreign policy more closely linked to Austria than it was before. Definitely, no biding treaties.

On the opposite side of the equation, Frederick did not demonstrate his usual aggressiveness and Prussian performance in the minor encounters probably was an indicator that the most prestigious army of Europe seemingly could not recover from the losses of the 7YW. Which was a good thing as far as Moscow was concerned. The same applied to the worsening situation with the Prussian finances and economy in general: continuation of the adventurous policies was getting increasingly less likely.

Two strictly peaceful things of a potential significance had been found:

• The war demonstrated importance of potato as a food product. It was decided to switch from the existing “conviction” policy to something more forceful. The Senate decree explaining to the peasants benefits of a new vegetable so far produced very modest results and even example of the nobility did not help: they just considered it as a “nobility food” at best and most often as “devil’s apple”. To be fair, even among the nobility, attitude was not uniform. For example, Princess Evdokia Golitsyna called potatoes a German vegetable, and believed that the cultivation of German potatoes undermined Russian national dignity. A strict decree to start allocation of a part of the communal land for potato caused wide-spread revolts and a resulting application of a traditional educational method “what one does not accept through the head, he will accept through a whipped ass”. Gradually but steadily the potato was growing in a popularity (it did not hurt to find out that it is quite useful for the moonshining). Not only the peasants started eating it but also Starch and alcohol enterprises began to be built one by one - and soon there were already hundreds of them. In 1785, the area occupied by this crop was 655 thousand hectares and it kept growing: potato grew from a garden to field vegetable.

• It was found that in Prussia in 1747, Andreas Marggraf isolated sugar from beetroots and found them at concentrations of 1.3–1.6%. He also demonstrated that the sugar that could be extracted from beets was identical to that produced from cane and the experiments in this direction continued with weiße schlesische Zuckerrübe (white Silesian sugar beet) boasting about a 6% sugar content. Importance of this information could not be overestimated and the measures were taken to get samples and start aggressive cultivation of the Silesian sugar beet in the Southern regions of the Russian Empire (for the starters, 28,000 hectares of the state land were allocated for the purpose [5] ) and to began sugar extraction from beetroots ASAP: cane sugar was a big and rather expensive part of the Russian imports and, except for the rock sugar imported mostly from China, it involved at least some dependency from the European colonies, which meant vulnerability to the frequently happening wars. The first factory extracting sugar from the beets was open in 1790 [6].

___________
[1] A real fool is not going to learn even on his own mistakes.
[2] Being lieutenant of artillery does not automatically qualifies a person as a military genius. Anyway, it seems that all long and boring Tolstoy’s pontification on the subject was based upon a single quote from Napoleon whom he did not like, just as he did not everybody else within the “genius” category because he was seemingly considering himself as one and only true genius of all times (“the greatest genius of all times and nations” was not born, yet). Anyway, the quote in question is “Les gros bataillons ont toujours raison” (the big numbers win) and Nappy was not always winning with the overall greater numbers. Another part of Tolstoy’s theory was that the army commanders are pretty much useless because they’ll never get a precise information immediately and by the time their orders are executed situation will change anyway.
[3] Who was promoted to fieldmarshal only in 1778 after Frederick, visiting Austria in 1776, kept addressing him this way and even then it took 2 years.
[4] Being born too early, Laudon did not have a chance to read “War and Peace” and dod not know that the numbers do not matter.
[5] That was done by Nappy in France.
[6] In OTL in 1802 Jacob Esipov built the first Russian commercial factory producing sugar from beets in the Tula province.

 

[Kriss]

For most of Joseph's adult life, he sought to strengthen his family's influence in German-speaking lands. For him, this meant the acquisition of German lands

Generally good idea, but executed badly as it gave other powers the pretext to intervene.

 

[alexmilman]

Generally good idea, but executed badly as it gave other powers the pretext to intervene.

Yes, there was a gap between theory and practice. He was, AFAIK, more successful in his domestic reforms then in his military and diplomatic adventures.

It seems that in the diplomacy he tended to consider the opponents to be fools (at least wiki article on his diplomatic activities regarding Bavaria produced such an impression) and in the military area perhaps the problem was, as had been remarked by the French ambassador at CII’s court, that the Austria officers were too educated.

 

[alexmilman]

154. Facing reality

“Sometimes practice spoils life and theory spoils thinking”
“The dream of every theorist: to implement his theory. The desire of any practical pers is to stay away from these crazy theorists.”
Observations by the unknown authors
“He suddenly discovered that he was going too fast and in aa wrong direction”
Saltykov-Schedrin ‘History of one city’

​

1780. The ongoing British colonial misunderstanding expanded into a full-scale international conflict with France and Spain making treaties with the rebels (which was not a big surprise) but, as long as this did not touch the Danish colonies on the Caribbean and the Russian and Swedish trade operations on the Far East and as long as the Brits respected neutrality of the Baltic League, it was not a problem for the League members. To a certain degree this was even to the League’s advantage because the Brits blocked France, the Dutch Republic and Spain from trading with China with a resulting fall of the price of tea in Canton due to the lack of demand and price increase in continental Europe due to the supply shortages. Sweden was now practically the only supplier of tea with a resulting profit increase up to 58%. Russia was buying tea mostly for the domestic consumption and was gaining from the lower prices both in Canton and, due to the domino effect, in Kjahta.

But this was, at least for Russia, only a part of a much broader issue. Before the Netherlands managed to join the Neutrality League, Britain declared a war on them. While on the “Western flank” the Dutch Republic was a second biggest customer of the Russian exports, on the East relations with VOC were on a much cooler side. Not that there was a serious competition between Russia and VOC in the China trade, in Japan situation was much less friendly not only due to some competition but mostly about a perceived issue of an “influence”. Before Bakufu opened 3 ports for the Russian trade the Dutch were the only Europeans allowed on the Japanese soil and, as a result, the only supplier of all things “European” making an island of Deshima Japan's window on the world. Western sciences and products were introduced to the Japanese and contacts resulted in so-called `Rangaku` or Dutch Learning. Of course, the Dutch “influence” was pretty much limited to the Japanese getting something of a practical value from them while not allowing them to exercise any influence on the Japanese affairs. Dutch had to live under strict rules. They could not leave without official permission and Deshima was prohibited for women. An exception was made for the public women of Murayama district, who were allowed to stay one night at a time on the island.

Permission to leave the island was only granted for official visits to the governor or the Shogun, the so-called "Edo Sanpu" or court journey to Edo. But in Edo the VOC Opperhoofden (who were changing annually) had been treated as the representatives of a vassal state bringing the annual tribute.

Which is not a big surprise because they were representatives of a merchant company and as such could be qualified as “sho”, the lowest-ranking social group under the Shogunate.

Situation with Russia was different. To start with, it was not just an empire but a manifestly powerful empire which managed to defeat the Qing (who used to claim being a center of the universe) so that a pretense of it being vassal of an emperor of Japan would look rather silly. Then, its diplomatic representatives were high-ranking (titled) members of a military class and if not necessary a daimyo level, the definitely high-ranking samurai and should be treated accordingly. Having in a permanent mission in Shimoda the titled Buddhists (who also were good in archery and comfortably sat on a floor ) was an additional touch showing respect to the hosts and deserving the reciprocity. The doctors and other “scientific” personnel of the mission were not noticeably inferior to their Dutch counterparts either.

But all this was, in practical terms, much ado about nothing because the Dutch and Russian trade interests were noticeably different. VOC still made profits and continued to trade mainly silk, deer skins and spices for gold, silver, copper and camphor. Also lacquerwork, porcelain and tea were bought and exported to Batavia or Europe.

Main Russian trade was happening through Hakodate on Hokkaido with main Russian imports being fish, various sea products, iron and products made out of it [1]. Pretty much the only competing item were the deer skins. Exports to Russia from Hokkaido were mostly rice, grain, vegetables to be consumed by the settlements on the Asia-Pacific coast and in Alaska. An additional “fish market” was in Kurilsk on Iturup Island which, due to its proximity to Hokkaido, the Japanese could visit without breaking the Seclusion laws (the whole Hokkaido was, legalistically, something of a gray area as far as 'Sakoku’ was involved). Hakodate was also used as a storage base of various naval supplies.

Taking into an account that Hakodate was not very conveniently located toward the Kuril islands, there were ongoing negotiations regarding opening an additional port in Kushiro.

The imports to Shimoda were mostly “European” luxury items: glassware, instruments, books, chandeliers, horses from the CA, etc. mostly sold for gold and silver. There was a limited market for the Japanese tea in Russia and the same goes for porcelain [2]: most of the domestic needs had been covered by the local porcelain and faience manufactures and imports from Saxony, France and Prussia had been covering most of the rest leaving a small “exotic” niche for the top quality imports from Asia.

In general, while being useful for improving the food supply situation on the Russian Pacific coast and bringing some gold and silver, trade with Japan was, at least for a while, rather limited in its volume and it did not look like this was going to change dramatically within framework of the existing shogunate policies.

Nagasaki, with Deshima being completely controlled by the Dutch, was of a little usage except for the occasional stops of the Russian ships traveling between Manila and Russian Far East.

Getting back to the subject, the British-Dutch hostilities raised a question regarding the Russian position. Should Russia remain absolutely neutral or should it side with the Brits against VOC while remaining friendly neutral to the Dutch Republic on the Baltic and White Seas. Which, in turn, brought a broader question regarding the Russian overseas trade and its goals.

Answer to the first question was reasonably easy: it did not make sense to go to the fight out of which only the Brits will get the tangible benefits.

Answer to the second question was not s straightforward. It was necessary to acknowledge that the initial plans were far too ambitious: unless Russian Empire was willing to get engaged in the major colonial conquests overseas, it could not adopt the British, Dutch, Spanish, French, Portuguese model with the meaningful results: getting few small tropical islands here and there was not going to produce enough products to cover the domestic needs and conquests on a larger scale would mean naval war(s) with the better positioned maritime powers and, on the top of it, probably to get from somewhere a big group of the plantation owners competent in growing the exotic plants. Of course, Russian Empire was rather successful in building its own class of the manufacturers and naval traders but there were realistic limits to everything.

The ongoing naval trade in Manila, Spanish American colonies (semi-official initiatives of the local administrations suffering from a shortage of the European goods coming through the official channels), various ports of India and now a fledging trade with the rebellious British colonies were relatively small potato both in exports and imports.

The Ottoman Empire, Persia and China remained the most important markets and the most dramatic changes had been happening with the China trade.

Imports from the Ottoman Empire and Persia provided some sectors of domestic industry with raw materials and met the needs of the population, primarily the ruling class, for goods that either did not exist at all in Russia or were insufficient. The import of silk (especially silk thread) was the most important. In 1760, about 2,000 poods of silk were consumed in Moscow factories and about 200 poods were sold "for some expenses except factories", and all imports from Transcaucasia and Persia to Russia, minus export to Europe, was estimated at 3,000 poods. Thus, Moscow absorbed more than two-thirds of all silk. Russian exports remained the same: agricultural products, fabrics, clothes, leather. In the group of metal products - knives, scissors, razors, locks, as well as copper, tin dishes, shandalas, copper tongs. Needles, thimbles, pins, buckles, cufflinks, buttons, inkwells, etc.. In the case of Persia, considerable volumes of vodka as well.

In 1770s, the structure of Russian exports to China changed dramatically: the share of fur fell from 62 to 18%, but the share of factory products (leather, fabrics, metal products, etc.) increased from 38 to 82%. The main commodity of Russian exports were domestic and foreign woolen cloth and paper products. The main import remained the same: tea.

General decline of the fur market, both in China and Europe, brought up the obvious question regarding the practicality of RAC and Russian holdings in Alaska and California (which was created predominantly to supply Alaska with food). Of course, the fur market did not, yet, disappear and, besides the existing markets, there were some markets for these luxury commodities in the most unexpected places (climate may be hot but wearing something exotic and expensive was a status statement) but perhaps it was a good time for expanding nomenclature, for example, by going into the whaling? After all, with a little bit of a care, all waters North from the Kuril islands could be considered the Russian sanctuary. Or perhaps there was something of value inside Alaska? The RAC directorate should move its collective posteriors and look for the new opportunities.



______________
[1] Japan’s main ironworks (up to 90% of domestic production) were around the Chugoku Mountain and charcoal-based. Sugaya Tatara, the main ironworks, produced approximately 200 tons of iron annually. The iron produced in Sugaya Tatara (a remote village in the mountains) was carried by horses to riverbanks and transshipped to Uryu Port (Izumo City) and Matsue Port (Matsue City) through Mitoya River and Hii River. All products were finally shipped out by merchant’s vessels and distributed to Osaka or the Hokuriku region. Total output of high-quality steel remained at approximately 20% of the entire production, with the lower types (Zuku and Bukera) making up the remaining 80%. While there was no competition with the top quality sword steel, the imports of iron and household items made with coke coal still were competitive.
[2] Probably on Russian porcelain and glassware I’ll make a separate chapter (if there is an interest to the subject).

 

[alexmilman]

155. While others are fighting…

«… а деньги ваши будут наши: это бизнес, господа!»
Тимур Шаов [1]
«Лучше всего съесть человека когда он болен или отсутствует: это позволяет сохранить с ним хорошие отношения.»
Илья Шварц ‘Тень’
“Do not conduct a convoluted policy”
Axel Oxenstierna to Gustav Adolph
​

1780.

The British-French-Spanish-American war kept going on and the only component missing were the Dutch. But not for long and mostly because of the general confusion: the stadtholderian regime was pro-British (the stadtholder being a grandson of king George II of Great Britain), but his opponents for this reason favoured France, and those opponents were strong enough in the States General of the Netherlands to keep Dutch foreign policy formally neutral. Initially, the British even considered the Dutch allies and tried to “borrow” the mercenary Scotch Brigade of the Dutch States Army but this was strongly opposed by the Dutch sympathizers of the American Revolution. Which brought an obvious question: who do they think they are? The Russian Empire or Sweden?

Well, of course, this gross impoliteness was plain foolish but, with he Hessian and Brunswicker contingents being available, it could be overlooked until the more convenient times. But, starting doing the foolish things, it is rather difficult to stop doing them especially when you can get profit out of them. Dutch merchants, especially those from Amsterdam, became involved in the supply of arms and munitions to the rebels soon after the start of the American Revolutionary War. This trade was mainly conducted via the entrepôt of St. Eustatius, an island colony of the Dutch West India Company in the Caribbean.

There, American colonial wares, such as tobacco and indigo, were imported (in contravention of the British Navigation Acts) and re-exported to Europe. For their return cargo, the Americans purchased arms, munitions, and naval stores brought to the island by Dutch and French merchants. To add insult to injury, in 1776, the governor of the island, Johannes de Graeff, was the first to salute the flag of the United States. Even worse: after the French declared war on Britain, the Amsterdam merchants also became heavily involved in the trade in naval stores with France invoking concession obtained after their victory in the Second Anglo-Dutch War, known as the principle of "free ship, free goods", which was enshrined in the Anglo-Dutch Commercial Treaty of 1668 and reconfirmed in the Treaty of Westminster (1674) [3].

It took Brits the whole four years to comprehend the full scope of the Dutch perfidious behavior but when they finally did, the reaction was violent [4] and well-timed: the Dutch were just planning to join the Neutrality League in a hope to get protection from the Baltic League [5] when the Brits unilaterally declared naval stores to be contraband and enforced their embargo by arresting Dutch ships on the high seas following with a formal declaration of war.

To prevent intervention of the Baltic League on the Dutch behalf (which it had no intention to do, anyway), the Brits issued an official memorandum quoting a number of grievances: shelter the Dutch had given to the American privateer John Paul Jones in 1779, a draft treaty of commerce, secretly negotiated between the Amsterdam banker Jean de Neufville and the American agent in Aix-la-Chapelle, William Lee, and some other facts showing the non-neutral conduct of the Dutch. The document was received in Moscow, Stockholm and Copenhagen [6] (and Berlin and Schwerin as well because Frederick II of Prussia and Frederick II of Mecklenburg had a good sense to join the League in a timely fashion) with a full appreciation after the British assurance that except for the weapons and munitions cargo carried by the League’s ships is not going to be considered a contraband. Taking into an account that, at least while the war continues, the Brits were going to pick up at least a part of the Dutch Baltic trade and that Britain remains a by far greatest trade partner of the League this accommodation looked reasonable to both sides. The minor “irregularities” taking place in the Danish Caribbean colonies could be overlooked as long as the weapons were not involved.

The Dutch had only 20 ships of the line and while States General had decided on a substantial expansion of the fleet in 1779 and even allocated some funds, the program progressed slowly due to the shortages of both materials and crews. Within a few weeks of the beginning of the war, more than 200 Dutch merchantmen, with cargo to the amount of 15 million guilders, had been captured by the British and 300 more were locked up in foreign ports. A proclaimed willingness of Emperor Peter II to offer a mediation (why not if it costs nothing and can produce some benefits? the important thing is not to achieve the peace but to keep process going until the quarreling sides decide to make peace) caused an illusion that the war will be of a short duration but the main gain was British: while the pointless diplomatic talks were going on they had been actively destroying the Dutch colonies and, among other things, weakening the VOC. Which was very nice of them because it allowed Russia to pick up some of the Dutch-Japanese trade.

The task was simplified by VOC trade system. The goods from all places had been carried to Batavia, unloaded, repacked and only then sent to the final destination. For example, a silk thread from Canton would sailed to Batavia on Java and from here to Nagasaki. With the war going dangerously close and the British destroying the Dutch settlements on Sumatra, it was rather hard for the VOC to guarantee a secure travel from Canton to Batavia and from here to Japan while the Russian ships would sail between Canton and Shimoda without any limitation on a number of ships per year carrying more copper to China and silk to Japan. Dutch import of the European goods to Japan was completely killed by the Brits cutting connection between the Republic and colonies. During the war with England, the debt of the VOC more than doubled. During the war, Batavia accumulated huge stocks of goods that could not be exported to Europe, as English ships intercepted goods. To cover the increasing costs, the colonial administration in Java resorted to issuing paper money (1782), which further upset the company's finances.

With the good deeds deserving a reward, for its diplomatic efforts Russia eventually got a right of free trade with part of the Dutch East Indies: coffee, while not being as popular as tea, was gaining popularity among Russian upper classes and the Ottomans could not fully satisfy the demand.



_________
[1] “And your money will be ours: it is just a business, gentlemen!” Timur Shaov
[2] “It is best to ate a person when he is sick or absent: this allows you to maintain a good relationship with him” (conversation of two cannibals) I. Schwartz ‘The Shadow’
[3] According to the treaty naval stores (including ship's timbers, masts, spars, canvas, tar, rope, and pitch) were not contraband and the Dutch, therefore, were free to continue their trade with France in these goods. Here comes the obvious question: who were the main suppliers of these goods? A hint: there was the whole chapter dedicated to the tar and the rest is also more or less obvious. With the Baltic Neutrality League being exempt from any restrictions except for the explicitly military supplies why wouldn’t it want to get some of a seemingly profitable business?
[4] Besides making the illegitimate profit at the expense of the British merchants, who could not benefit from making these sales themselves, it was a clear insult to the national dignity: only Albion had a right to be Perfidious.
[5] To avoid the comparisons belonging to current politics, it is like someone trying to become ember of a privileged golf club without asking consent of its members. Why would the Baltic League want to get involved into conflict between the Brits and the Dutch?
[6] In OTL by that time Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein already were united so why not the same for the Grand Duchy of Gottorp and Denmark ITTL?

 

[Chernabog90]

So VOC seems to be going bankrupt faster in this world,

 

[alexmilman]

So VOC seems to be going bankrupt faster in this world,

With the state subsidies it may keep going for OTL time: as I understand, Japan and China were not as important as Indonesia and its products. But increasing Russian role in Japan may be stretched into the earlier “opening” with somewhat different scenarios afterwards.

I did not think that through, yet, but, for example, what if when Commodore Perry arrives at Edo Bay there are guns firing explosive shells on both sides?

 

[alexmilman]

Is there any interest in a little excursion into the history of Russian porcelain?

 

[Kriss]

But increasing Russian role in Japan may be stretched into the earlier “opening” with somewhat different scenarios afterwards.

I did not think that through, yet, but, for example, what if when Commodore Perry arrives at Edo Bay there are guns firing explosive shells on both sides?

I don't know, without shock therapy that Commodore Perry induced to Japan I'm not sure that it will open up , otherwise current relationship is acceptable for Japan government and allows it to keep its isolation, in a way similar to China, there is a trade but not on a such level to affect internal development to much and in this TL Qing even had a war with Russia and lost without being affected to much.


But what may happen down the line is Russia supplementing Prussian/German influence , though that's far ahead.

 

[dunHozzie]

Is there any interest in a little excursion into the history of Russian porcelain?

I'm admittedly a bit curious, but I could certainly do without as well. It depends to me whether it will 1) will be fun for you, 2) delay other content, 3) impact the story at a later date, even if relatively minor. If yes to 1, do it. If no to 2, do it. If 3, I wouldn't mind at all. If it's no to 1, skip it. If it's yes to 2, no to 3, I'd be very ok to skip it

 

[alexmilman]

I'm admittedly a bit curious, but I could certainly do without as well. It depends to me whether it will 1) will be fun for you, 2) delay other content, 3) impact the story at a later date, even if relatively minor. If yes to 1, do it. If no to 2, do it. If 3, I wouldn't mind at all. If it's no to 1, skip it. If it's yes to 2, no to 3, I'd be very ok to skip it

Well, it is definitely #1 (otherwise I would not mention it) and it impacts nomenclature of the Russian imports from China and Japan so it is #3 (to some degree). As for #2, I can’t just jump from one (missed) war to another completely disregarding the issues of economics, manufacturing, etc.

In OTL development of the domestics “ceramics” of all types and levels did impact the life styles of pretty much all classes, except for the poorest ones so it is kind of relevant for a broader picture.

To borrow from the classics, in the “Modern Idyll” Saltykov-Schedrin mockingly discussed production of the low quality domestic wine as a factor impacting the Russian foreign policy making it independent from the British imports of port, madeira, etc. You can extend this logic to the good quality table ware.