It is already widely known with the rumors attributing it to both the Brits and Austrians. The Austrians are clearly gaining from this death and the Brits, well, they are perfidious (or do not want Fritz ending up being too powerful). When the absurdity stopped the rumors from spreading? 😜
No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)
- Thread starter alexmilman
- Start date
Which was the main reason for disposing of him earlier. His claim to the Swedish inheritance can led to anything including a direct war with Sweden and even the best case scenario spoils relations to the almost unfixable degree. Of course PIII may denounce the claim but it is too late to fully restore the relations. IITL, the whole thing is just a drunken talk of a fool and the official settlement of the issue is not a damage control but a demonstration of a never broken friendship.
Exactly.
If he is in a strong enough position, he will. Basically, he screwed CII forcing her to the 1st Partition and then did the same in the Ottoman War of 1768-74.
Or for the Baltic provinces, which would definitely break a lot of things.
Ah, Alexei dealing with troublesome relatives in the traditional Russian imperial way. I suspect only cranks will blame him for the murder. "Are you seriously suggesting he murdered his own son?" After all, we don't have the historical example of Alexei's death ATL, so the last example is from Ivan the Terrible, which was back in the pre-Peter barbaric era of Russian history (so the histography goes, though the average Russian might not notice much difference in the benevolence of their government before and after other than post-Peter's Russia having greater state capacity to oppress them with).
By the way, since it is likely only a few updates away, I've updated my map for the proposed PL partition and redrew the borders slightly so they are less clunky and more aesthetic, which as we all know is very important. . Feel free to use this and let me know @alexmilman if anything needs changed.
'
By the way, since it is likely only a few updates away, I've updated my map for the proposed PL partition and redrew the borders slightly so they are less clunky and more aesthetic, which as we all know is very important. . Feel free to use this and let me know @alexmilman if anything needs changed.
'
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Looking good! I wish I had a better understanding of where the Uniate/orthodox border sits- but I assume this border does a pretty good job of putting most orthodox on the russian side.
“…. when there are these perfidious Brits with their poisoned oysters and highly suspicious Austrians who may actually be the ones who poisoned these oysters…” I’ll do this stuff in greater details in the next chapter (finally, something not restricted by the bounds of plausibility 😂)
Story about Ivan Junior is seemingly based upon the rumors but, unlike the case of OTL Alexey and Peter, there is no “issue”: yes, the heir to the throne was most probably poisoned but if this rumor is correct, this was done by the evil foreign powers. Image of the late Grand Duke can even be glorified to emphasize evilness of the crime.
Looks very nice. Thank you.
Regarding the Partition, given that i assume that Austria will be supported to join this partition by Russia and Sweden (i can't see Prussia calling them in) and I believe that beside Russia , Austria will as well support Sweden in getting Danzig (as a fuck you to Fritz). Will we also see Austria deciding to acknowledge Russian imperial claim as a way to warm relationships with Russia and potentially get their support/non interference for a push against the Ottomans (from previous chapter's Russia was willing to allow it in acceptable boundaries). Of course getting Russian support is probably just an excuse domestically for Austria as Russia doesn't care overly for Austrian recognition, real reason for recognizing imperial title could be a precondition for including Austria in Partition.
Food, rumors, etc.
124. Food, rumors, etc.
More or less irrelevant historic note. The mushrooms were extremely popular in the XVIII century Russia, which somewhat horrified the foreigners. Some types of the mushrooms had been consumed raw: the people had been just sprinkling them with a little bit of salt or poured some vinegar. For the winter the mushrooms had been salted in the barrels into which they were placed without being cleaned (it was assumed that all types of the forest stuff sticking to them is improving the smell). When in the barrels, they were slightly salted and placed under the press (which could be anything including a stone picked on a street), held for a month or two and then consumed without a further processing. The process quite similar to production of the Russian version of a sauerkraut. Out of the Russian historic personages, widow of the Tsar Feodor Alexeevich died in 1715, presumably from eating too much of the marinated mushrooms during one of the numerous fasts. Besides being appropriate food for the fasts, the marinated mushrooms had been very popular with vodka.
Citizens of Moscow had a time of their lives being engaged in one of their favorite pastimes, gossiping. The gossips and innuendos had been freely crossing the social lines and going from top to the bottom and from the bottom to the top. Versions of the Grand Duke’s death had been discussed in the aristocratic salons and in the cheap drinking places.
The versions kept multiplying but the leitmotif was the same: “they” killed the Grand Duke with the poisoned oysters. The popular opinion varied on who exactly were “they” but the oysters, not being a traditional Russian food, were a clear indication of a foreign plot. Rather surprisingly, the French were not among the main suspects, perhaps because nobody could tell for sure what were their interests in that war and, at least as far as the upper classes were involved, how one could survive without the French hair-dressers and the latest fashions from Paris?
But Austria, Prussia and Britain were “in”:
The widowed Grand Duchess had been treated with an utmost respect but a mandatory mourning seriously cut down her social activities. From time to time Ushakov was visiting her to update on the latest findings but, unfortunately, there was not too much to tell taking into an account the diplomatic immunity of the obvious suspects.
To settle the Swedish issue once and for all, the Grand Duke Peter Petrovich signed, on his own initiative, an official document stating that he is not going to pretend to any part of the territories owned by the Crown of Sweden or compete with the succession rights of the children of Charles XIII and may consider acceptance of the Swedish Crown only if in an absence of other legal claims it is offered to him by the monarch of Sweden or, in the case of his or her absence, by the Riksdag. The formula was found quite satisfactory by the Swedish side and the whole episode was disregarded.
An issue of going to war was quietly dying from the natural causes. Alexey, who suddenly became superstitious, declared that, whatever the reason of the Grand Duke’s death, it was clearly a Sign from the Above indicating that there is no God’s approval for a military action. Sorry, but we can’t go against the God’s will, what else, dear Ambassador, do you want to tell me?
The British Ambassador could not get off the hook as easily as the rest because he was the only one from whom Alexey wanted something tangible. Of course, nobody was going to interrogate the members of the embassy (we are not the barbarians) but don’t you agree that the whole thing smells badly even if it was just an unfortunate accident? After all, we are talking about a violent death of a heir to the Russian throne and quite a few people here in Russia don’t think that a plain denial is enough: there should be some tangible signs of the British friendship. Taking into an account that ongoing war brought a sharp increase of demand to the strategic materials from the Baltic League (both Sweden and Denmark firmly lined behind Alexey), the issue ended up in the Parliament and, after some fierce rhetoric regarding blackmail and the British noble principles, Navigation Act was amended allowing the Baltic League a direct trade with the British colonies on condition that the imported goods are being produced in the League’s countries (but not their colonies) and do not include the enumerated goods (sugar, tobacco, cotton, wool, indigo, and ginger) identified by the Act of 1660. Britain also promised support of its consular representatives to the Russian merchant ships in the places where Russia does not have its own representatives.
As a reciprocal gesture, Russia agreed not to set the prohibitive tariffs on the imported colonial goods previously marked as the “luxury items”: sugar, coffee, tea, dyes, tobacco, spices.
______________
[1] The most aristocratic social club in Moscow which had nothing to do with England except for its name. Acquiring membership was not easy but it was a social “must” for a person accepted in a high society. Many of the retired high-ranking officials had been spending the whole days there discussing events with their peers. Due to its status, the club allowed a much greater freedom of blabbing than was permitted outside its walls.
“There is nothing more useless than a rumor not worthy of spreading”.
“This may be a gossip but not a lie.”
Unknown authors
“Cure from a slander does not exist.”
Presumably Moliere
“This may be a gossip but not a lie.”
Unknown authors
“Cure from a slander does not exist.”
Presumably Moliere
More or less irrelevant historic note. The mushrooms were extremely popular in the XVIII century Russia, which somewhat horrified the foreigners. Some types of the mushrooms had been consumed raw: the people had been just sprinkling them with a little bit of salt or poured some vinegar. For the winter the mushrooms had been salted in the barrels into which they were placed without being cleaned (it was assumed that all types of the forest stuff sticking to them is improving the smell). When in the barrels, they were slightly salted and placed under the press (which could be anything including a stone picked on a street), held for a month or two and then consumed without a further processing. The process quite similar to production of the Russian version of a sauerkraut. Out of the Russian historic personages, widow of the Tsar Feodor Alexeevich died in 1715, presumably from eating too much of the marinated mushrooms during one of the numerous fasts. Besides being appropriate food for the fasts, the marinated mushrooms had been very popular with vodka.
Citizens of Moscow had a time of their lives being engaged in one of their favorite pastimes, gossiping. The gossips and innuendos had been freely crossing the social lines and going from top to the bottom and from the bottom to the top. Versions of the Grand Duke’s death had been discussed in the aristocratic salons and in the cheap drinking places.
The versions kept multiplying but the leitmotif was the same: “they” killed the Grand Duke with the poisoned oysters. The popular opinion varied on who exactly were “they” but the oysters, not being a traditional Russian food, were a clear indication of a foreign plot. Rather surprisingly, the French were not among the main suspects, perhaps because nobody could tell for sure what were their interests in that war and, at least as far as the upper classes were involved, how one could survive without the French hair-dressers and the latest fashions from Paris?
But Austria, Prussia and Britain were “in”:
- Austria was obvious. The Grand Duke had been preaching a war against it for the last few years. The only question was how did they manage to poison the oysters sent from the British embassy. But the old wizards from the English Club [1] came with a plausible explanation, which soon enough trickled down the social ladder acquiring the juicy details on the way: the Austrians bribed a servant in the British embassy who was trusted with delivering a gift and put poison into a barrel on his way to Kremlin. The option was that the poisoner did his dirty business before the barrel was sent with an unsuspecting courier. Somebody even heard, either from Ushakov or from Arkharov, that there was a suspiciously-looking corps found on a street and that both Austrians and Brits refused to identify it, which extremely suspicious. When asked directly, Ushakov just smiled enigmatically and declared that the corpses are Arkharov’s area of responsibility. Arkharov, not being the Club member by the obvious reasons, was not easily reachable for a comment.
- Prussia was less obvious but wasn’t it clear that Frederick wanted the Russian troops but not the Russian Grand Duke as their commander. The Grand Duke Peter would be pursuing the Russian interests (on this point everybody preferred to be vague: even the Club had certain taboos and potential conflict with Sweden was one of them) while an axillary Russian corps would serve only the Prussian interests in an ongoing war. Being the British ally, Frederick obviously had better contacts in their embassy than Austria.
- Britain was seemingly tricky but not for the retiring senators. Of course, Britain was buying a lot of the Russian things but this did not change the obvious fact that it was “perfidious” with an established history of a sneaky behavior. Isn’t it clear that it looks for rolling back the trade-related concessions it was forced to make few years ago? Obviously, it does. With this fact being firmly established, would it want to roll things back even further to the time of the Muscovy Company and Patent of 1567? Of course, it would so here you go. Most probably, a death of the Grand Duke is just a part of a failed plot to assassinate not only him but also the Emperor (who, thank God, luckily escaped poisoning by leaving the banquet early) and Grand Duke Peter Petrovich (being asked about a rumor regarding an attempt to ambush him on his way to Moscow, Ushakov gave one of his enigmatic smiles and said the the members of the Imperial Convoy are very capable fighters; surely, he could not say more!). This would leave Russian Empire with a child five years old as an emperor providing the Brits with a convenient opening for implementing their plan. When being informed about this version, even Ushakov was impressed and Alexey remarked jokingly that perhaps he was wrong sending people with such brainpower into a retirement.
The widowed Grand Duchess had been treated with an utmost respect but a mandatory mourning seriously cut down her social activities. From time to time Ushakov was visiting her to update on the latest findings but, unfortunately, there was not too much to tell taking into an account the diplomatic immunity of the obvious suspects.
To settle the Swedish issue once and for all, the Grand Duke Peter Petrovich signed, on his own initiative, an official document stating that he is not going to pretend to any part of the territories owned by the Crown of Sweden or compete with the succession rights of the children of Charles XIII and may consider acceptance of the Swedish Crown only if in an absence of other legal claims it is offered to him by the monarch of Sweden or, in the case of his or her absence, by the Riksdag. The formula was found quite satisfactory by the Swedish side and the whole episode was disregarded.
An issue of going to war was quietly dying from the natural causes. Alexey, who suddenly became superstitious, declared that, whatever the reason of the Grand Duke’s death, it was clearly a Sign from the Above indicating that there is no God’s approval for a military action. Sorry, but we can’t go against the God’s will, what else, dear Ambassador, do you want to tell me?
The British Ambassador could not get off the hook as easily as the rest because he was the only one from whom Alexey wanted something tangible. Of course, nobody was going to interrogate the members of the embassy (we are not the barbarians) but don’t you agree that the whole thing smells badly even if it was just an unfortunate accident? After all, we are talking about a violent death of a heir to the Russian throne and quite a few people here in Russia don’t think that a plain denial is enough: there should be some tangible signs of the British friendship. Taking into an account that ongoing war brought a sharp increase of demand to the strategic materials from the Baltic League (both Sweden and Denmark firmly lined behind Alexey), the issue ended up in the Parliament and, after some fierce rhetoric regarding blackmail and the British noble principles, Navigation Act was amended allowing the Baltic League a direct trade with the British colonies on condition that the imported goods are being produced in the League’s countries (but not their colonies) and do not include the enumerated goods (sugar, tobacco, cotton, wool, indigo, and ginger) identified by the Act of 1660. Britain also promised support of its consular representatives to the Russian merchant ships in the places where Russia does not have its own representatives.
As a reciprocal gesture, Russia agreed not to set the prohibitive tariffs on the imported colonial goods previously marked as the “luxury items”: sugar, coffee, tea, dyes, tobacco, spices.
______________
[1] The most aristocratic social club in Moscow which had nothing to do with England except for its name. Acquiring membership was not easy but it was a social “must” for a person accepted in a high society. Many of the retired high-ranking officials had been spending the whole days there discussing events with their peers. Due to its status, the club allowed a much greater freedom of blabbing than was permitted outside its walls.
Troublesome peaceful life
125. Troublesome peaceful life
1758. Fighting in Europe was going on but without any decisive results. In early 1758, Frederick launched an invasion of Moravia and laid siege to Olmütz (now Olomouc, Czech Republic).[76] Following an Austrian victory at the Battle of Domstadtl
that wiped out a supply convoy destined for Olmütz, Frederick broke off the siege and withdrew from Moravia. It marked the end of his final attempt to launch a major invasion of Austrian territory. In April 1758, the British concluded the Anglo-Prussian Convention with Frederick in which they committed to pay him an annual subsidy of £670,000. Britain also dispatched 9,000 troops to reinforce Ferdinand's Hanoverian army, the first British troop commitment on the continent and a reversal in the policy of Pitt. Ferdinand's Hanoverian army, supplemented by some Prussian troops, had succeeded in driving the French from Hanover and Westphalia and re-captured the port of Emden in March 1758 before crossing the Rhine with his own forces, which caused alarm in France. Despite Ferdinand's victory over the French at the Battle of Krefeld and the brief occupation of Düsseldorf, he was compelled by the successful manoeuvering of larger French forces to withdraw across the Rhine.
The war was continuing indecisively when on 14 October Marshal Daun's Austrians surprised the main Prussian army at the Battle of Hochkirch in Saxony.
Frederick lost much of his artillery but retreated in good order, helped by dense woods. The Austrians had ultimately made little progress in the campaign in Saxony despite Hochkirch and had failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough. After a thwarted attempt to take Dresden, Daun's troops were forced to withdraw to Austrian territory for the winter, so that Saxony remained under Prussian occupation.
It looked like the pattern of the war became reasonably clear and it was a good time to look at it, make the conclusions and, perhaps introduce some changes. Of course, it did not look like Frederick will be attacking Russia any time soon but Sweden was a different story (and Frederick’s Swedish wife hardly will be a deterrent) but, anyway, the Russian army must be up to any potential challenge.
Munnich, as a Military Minister, was given a task to assign whatever resources he deems necessary to produce a meaningful analysis of the current status of the European warfare with the emphasis on Prussian army, Frederick and his methods of war. The conclusions boiled to the following [1]:
Frederick's Prussian army consists of foreigners of all kinds of countries, mores, religions, customs and characters. In order for such an army to serve as a reliable tool in the hands of the government, iron discipline is needed and, as was formulated by Frederick himself, “a soldier must fear his corporal more than an enemy”. All soldier’s training has a goal to turn him into an automaton completely voided of the initiative or individual thinking. For achieving this goal, Prussian army has more non-commissioned officers and the punishments more severe than any other army of Europe (and has to use much more effort on curbing the desertions than anybody else; the 1st chapter of Frederick’s instruction to his generals was dedicated to the explicit descriptions of methods to prevent the desertions, all the way to surrounding a camp with the cavalry patrols looking not for the advancing enemies but for their own soldiers).
There were, of course, the carrots. The unter-officers upon retirement had a priority of being employed to state and even private positions. The officers had been highly respected in the society and commanders of the company and above had a good opportunity to enrich themselves by ..er.. “economizing” on soldiers’s uniforms and supplies [2], squeezing the local population (for example, Silesia, who supplied up to 7,000 recruits, delivered up to 1 million guilders to regiment commanders), etc. As a result, the Prussian army had a very loyal officers’ corps.
A rigorous drill allowed Prussian infantry to shoot at a rate 2-3 times higher than any of its opponents. Of course, due to the fact that the firing was done when marching and without aiming, effectiveness of that fire was extremely low but Frederick forced his infantry to shoot not so much to cause material harm to the enemy, but mainly to occupy the infantry moving into the attack. Usually, the infantry formations arranged in the battalion lines were starting attack at 1,000 steps supported by the artillery fire from the enemy’s front or flank opening fire at 400 steps and at 50 steps was launching a bayonet charge. But that time they were managing to make 5-6 salvos and the opponent was unnerved enough to flee before the contact had been made.
Cavalry was superb, attacking at the full speed sword in hand (use of the firearms during attack was explicitly forbidden). Unlike infantry, it was formed exclusively from the Prussians (mostly land-owning farmers) and as a result was highly loyal to the king. It had been rigorously trained 5 days a week. Officers were certainly required to "that they always attack the enemy first and never allow the enemy to attack himself; they had to encourage people and convince them that the enemy is far worse than what they imagined; in addition, the officers were obliged to inspire people not to feel sorry for the enemy and chop the enemy as ruthlessly as possible; when he overturned, do not pursue too far, and as soon as they crumbled - to reform the ranks immediately and quickly.” Each cavalry officer had to firmly remember that only the following actions necessary to defeat the enemy: firstly, to attack him with the highest speed and force, and secondly, to cover his flanks; each cavalry officer should never lose sight of the fact that he was obliged to attack the enemy on the flank to rather overturn him. Usually, cavalry was arranged in 3 lines (cuirassiers, dragoons, hussars) at the infantry’s flank. Usually, the cavalry was assembled into the big masses (up to 100 squadrons) under a single command. Field artillery (6- and 12-pound cannons and 7- and 10-pound howitzers ) had been moved on a battlefield but usually was arranged into the batteries of various sizes placed in the center and on the flanks.
Formally, there were divisions consisting of two brigades and their composition was not permanent and Frederick preferred to appoint line commanders, as well as those of the center and wings of combat order for the duration of the battle.
In a battle Frederick almost always used the same maneuver of advancing at an angle to one of the opponent’s flanks. This movement of the army to the enemy's flank had its dangerous side, because it could only be carried out through a flank march and almost always at the closest distance from the enemy's deployed combat lines so Frederick usually conducted demonstrations against parts of the enemy’s front which he was not planning to attack, hide his march behind the hills or protected his march by a part of his cavalry. However, not a single time did the opponent try to catch him during the approach.
No matter how risky were his maneuvers, the Austrians were just holding their positions, which was one of the main components of his victories. Fieldmarshal Daun was extremely cautious and, with very few exceptions, like Hochkirch, did not risk an attack. Most of the time he was relying upon the maneuvers, quite often successful one, using a main weakness of the prevailing style of the warfare: high reliance upon the supply magazines. Cutting off supply line, if happened (even with some relatively minor engagement) would often produce the same results as a successful battle but with a lesser risk and he stuck to this strategy with a full support of Maria Theresa who even honored him with a special medal saying “keep winning by procrastinating”.
So, one of the great bonuses of the Prussian side was Frederick himself with his aggressive style and willingness to take risks. And, of course, having the capable subordinates was another major bonus.
The major potential weakness was the linear system within which he was operating. Of course, he was the best player within the system but it definitely had its vulnerabilities the main of which was an absence of the meaningful reserves on a battlefield. A complete reliance upon the magazines, needed for a generally unreliable army, was another major weakness.
Answer to the question regarding adoption of the Prussian methods was generally negative:
However, it was admitted that a potential opponent like Frederick deserves a thorough study of his methods, development of the recipes of how to deal with them and making the troops trained along these lines. Not that these assurances made Alexey completely relaxed but most of what had been said did make sense and he got used to trusting his Military Minister. The Grand Duke Peter Petrovich was sent to the Ministry to oversee the proceedings and to get a greater familiarity with an army which soon enough will be his own.
The second serious and rather complicated issue was trade with China. Of course, comparing to Britain (which amounted to up to 50% of the Russian foreign trade), China was a rather minor trade partner (slightly over 7%) but not unimportant one because it was practically the only supplier of the tea, which was growing in popularity in Russia. The trade was going through Kyakhta and was almost completely a barter. So far, the main items of the Russian export were furs (predominantly), fabrics, paper and leather and the main imports tea and sugar. The problem with the furs was that the increasing numbers of them had to be transported from Kamchatka and even Alaska, which was, even with the usage of the newly built port on Amur, a long and expensive process. The same goes for transporting tea by land all the way to the European Russia where most of the consumers lived.
The 1st circumnavigational expedition demonstrated few things:
The Minister of Commerce, Jackob Evreinov, proposed the following solution:
(a) Limit fur trade in Kyakhta to the Siberian furs with a stress on the cheaper ones (squirrels and red foxes ) to prevent saturation of the Chinese market with the more expensive ones. Those will be transported to Russia by land or by the sea with the option of selling all or part of them on the route (to the Ottomans, Brits, Dutch, etc.) through the existing Russian trade missions or authorized local representatives. This will apply to the RAC furs as well.
(b) In Kyakhta increase selling of the Russian woolens.
(c) Send one more mission to China requesting permission to establish a consulate in Canton and to conduct trade from it.
(d) Request to the Admiralty: start sending the regular (annual or bi-annual) circumnavigation expeditions both from the Baltic and Black Seas.
(e) RAC should have its own fleet of the merchant ships capable of the travel between the Russian Pacific coast and Alaska and to the South to the Spanish colonies in California and Philippines (find out about possibility of trade in Manila).
Mission had been sent and its appearance at Kyakhta was accompanied by a noticeable concentration of the Russian troops in a nearby Verhneudinsk.
To the worried local Chinese officials it was declared that the Russian Emperor considers behavior toward the Russian naval expedition as an unfriendly act, probably caused by an excessive zeal of the local officials, and expects that it will be remedied promptly by giving the Russian ships and merchants the same rights as enjoyed by other Europeans including establishing of a consulate in Macao. The Russian commissioner is going to wait in Kyakhta for four months and if by that time a positive answer is not received, he will act accordingly… do you want Fieldmarshal Rumyantsev to visit China again? This can be arranged.
Unfortunately for Qianlong Emperor, at that time he could not do too much for defense of his Northern territories. Thanks to his “wise” policies, the Khalka Mongols were completely impoverished and required to turn over their guns to the government [3] and to stick to their bows and arrows. Due to the oppressive taxation almost third of the male population became the buddhist monks. The Manchu bannermen had been losing their lands to the Han peasant settlers who were migrating from the Northern China and could not maintain themselves as an effective military force. Many of them had been Han adopted by the Manchu families. Of course, this did not mean that they were noticeably worse than the “true” Manchu bannermen but even those did not preform too well during the last wars.There was a distinct chance that in the case of a new war Qing is going to lose Outer Mongolia and, quite possible, a chunk of Manchuria as well.
The “European barbarians” in general had been weak and insignificant: what could they do besides sending few small ships? But the “Northern barbarians” were just across the border and already demonstrated twice that they are capable of annihilating the Qing armies without any serious effort and not long ago they subdued the strong khanates of the Central Asia as well. The hated Oirats were obviously doing much better under the Russian rule than the Khalka Mongols under Qing so in the case of a war, a massive uprising in Mongolia in the case of Russian invasion was a distinct possibility: the Khalkians had been already fleeing across the border in, so far, the small numbers.
Anyway, at least formally, the Russian caravans already had a right to travel to Beijing so why don’t allow them to settle in Canton with other barbarians?
A messenger from Beijing arrived to Kyakhta with the imperial decree stating that the Emperor considered the Russian petition and granted permission to keep Russian consulate in Canton and to conduct trade there with the same rights as other European countries.
____________
[1] Stolen from “History of the military art” by Mikhnevich. 😜
[2] Clausewitz described this in some details in his book on 1806 campaign.
[3] AFAIK, in OTL it was done only to the Solons starting from 1763.
“When you make a move, make sure it's right one.”
“You lose more from indecision than from the wrong decision.”
“Listen to everyone, pay atention to a few, decide for yourself.
Unknown authors
“If my soldiers had started thinking, none of them would have remained in service.”
Frederick II
“The energy of activity they with a great skill opposed with the energy of inactivity.”
Saltykov-Schedrin (no, it was not about the Austrian generals 😜)
“You lose more from indecision than from the wrong decision.”
“Listen to everyone, pay atention to a few, decide for yourself.
Unknown authors
“If my soldiers had started thinking, none of them would have remained in service.”
Frederick II
“The energy of activity they with a great skill opposed with the energy of inactivity.”
Saltykov-Schedrin (no, it was not about the Austrian generals 😜)
1758. Fighting in Europe was going on but without any decisive results. In early 1758, Frederick launched an invasion of Moravia and laid siege to Olmütz (now Olomouc, Czech Republic).[76] Following an Austrian victory at the Battle of Domstadtl
that wiped out a supply convoy destined for Olmütz, Frederick broke off the siege and withdrew from Moravia. It marked the end of his final attempt to launch a major invasion of Austrian territory. In April 1758, the British concluded the Anglo-Prussian Convention with Frederick in which they committed to pay him an annual subsidy of £670,000. Britain also dispatched 9,000 troops to reinforce Ferdinand's Hanoverian army, the first British troop commitment on the continent and a reversal in the policy of Pitt. Ferdinand's Hanoverian army, supplemented by some Prussian troops, had succeeded in driving the French from Hanover and Westphalia and re-captured the port of Emden in March 1758 before crossing the Rhine with his own forces, which caused alarm in France. Despite Ferdinand's victory over the French at the Battle of Krefeld and the brief occupation of Düsseldorf, he was compelled by the successful manoeuvering of larger French forces to withdraw across the Rhine.
The war was continuing indecisively when on 14 October Marshal Daun's Austrians surprised the main Prussian army at the Battle of Hochkirch in Saxony.
Frederick lost much of his artillery but retreated in good order, helped by dense woods. The Austrians had ultimately made little progress in the campaign in Saxony despite Hochkirch and had failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough. After a thwarted attempt to take Dresden, Daun's troops were forced to withdraw to Austrian territory for the winter, so that Saxony remained under Prussian occupation.
It looked like the pattern of the war became reasonably clear and it was a good time to look at it, make the conclusions and, perhaps introduce some changes. Of course, it did not look like Frederick will be attacking Russia any time soon but Sweden was a different story (and Frederick’s Swedish wife hardly will be a deterrent) but, anyway, the Russian army must be up to any potential challenge.
Munnich, as a Military Minister, was given a task to assign whatever resources he deems necessary to produce a meaningful analysis of the current status of the European warfare with the emphasis on Prussian army, Frederick and his methods of war. The conclusions boiled to the following [1]:
Frederick's Prussian army consists of foreigners of all kinds of countries, mores, religions, customs and characters. In order for such an army to serve as a reliable tool in the hands of the government, iron discipline is needed and, as was formulated by Frederick himself, “a soldier must fear his corporal more than an enemy”. All soldier’s training has a goal to turn him into an automaton completely voided of the initiative or individual thinking. For achieving this goal, Prussian army has more non-commissioned officers and the punishments more severe than any other army of Europe (and has to use much more effort on curbing the desertions than anybody else; the 1st chapter of Frederick’s instruction to his generals was dedicated to the explicit descriptions of methods to prevent the desertions, all the way to surrounding a camp with the cavalry patrols looking not for the advancing enemies but for their own soldiers).
There were, of course, the carrots. The unter-officers upon retirement had a priority of being employed to state and even private positions. The officers had been highly respected in the society and commanders of the company and above had a good opportunity to enrich themselves by ..er.. “economizing” on soldiers’s uniforms and supplies [2], squeezing the local population (for example, Silesia, who supplied up to 7,000 recruits, delivered up to 1 million guilders to regiment commanders), etc. As a result, the Prussian army had a very loyal officers’ corps.
A rigorous drill allowed Prussian infantry to shoot at a rate 2-3 times higher than any of its opponents. Of course, due to the fact that the firing was done when marching and without aiming, effectiveness of that fire was extremely low but Frederick forced his infantry to shoot not so much to cause material harm to the enemy, but mainly to occupy the infantry moving into the attack. Usually, the infantry formations arranged in the battalion lines were starting attack at 1,000 steps supported by the artillery fire from the enemy’s front or flank opening fire at 400 steps and at 50 steps was launching a bayonet charge. But that time they were managing to make 5-6 salvos and the opponent was unnerved enough to flee before the contact had been made.
Cavalry was superb, attacking at the full speed sword in hand (use of the firearms during attack was explicitly forbidden). Unlike infantry, it was formed exclusively from the Prussians (mostly land-owning farmers) and as a result was highly loyal to the king. It had been rigorously trained 5 days a week. Officers were certainly required to "that they always attack the enemy first and never allow the enemy to attack himself; they had to encourage people and convince them that the enemy is far worse than what they imagined; in addition, the officers were obliged to inspire people not to feel sorry for the enemy and chop the enemy as ruthlessly as possible; when he overturned, do not pursue too far, and as soon as they crumbled - to reform the ranks immediately and quickly.” Each cavalry officer had to firmly remember that only the following actions necessary to defeat the enemy: firstly, to attack him with the highest speed and force, and secondly, to cover his flanks; each cavalry officer should never lose sight of the fact that he was obliged to attack the enemy on the flank to rather overturn him. Usually, cavalry was arranged in 3 lines (cuirassiers, dragoons, hussars) at the infantry’s flank. Usually, the cavalry was assembled into the big masses (up to 100 squadrons) under a single command. Field artillery (6- and 12-pound cannons and 7- and 10-pound howitzers ) had been moved on a battlefield but usually was arranged into the batteries of various sizes placed in the center and on the flanks.
Formally, there were divisions consisting of two brigades and their composition was not permanent and Frederick preferred to appoint line commanders, as well as those of the center and wings of combat order for the duration of the battle.
In a battle Frederick almost always used the same maneuver of advancing at an angle to one of the opponent’s flanks. This movement of the army to the enemy's flank had its dangerous side, because it could only be carried out through a flank march and almost always at the closest distance from the enemy's deployed combat lines so Frederick usually conducted demonstrations against parts of the enemy’s front which he was not planning to attack, hide his march behind the hills or protected his march by a part of his cavalry. However, not a single time did the opponent try to catch him during the approach.
No matter how risky were his maneuvers, the Austrians were just holding their positions, which was one of the main components of his victories. Fieldmarshal Daun was extremely cautious and, with very few exceptions, like Hochkirch, did not risk an attack. Most of the time he was relying upon the maneuvers, quite often successful one, using a main weakness of the prevailing style of the warfare: high reliance upon the supply magazines. Cutting off supply line, if happened (even with some relatively minor engagement) would often produce the same results as a successful battle but with a lesser risk and he stuck to this strategy with a full support of Maria Theresa who even honored him with a special medal saying “keep winning by procrastinating”.
So, one of the great bonuses of the Prussian side was Frederick himself with his aggressive style and willingness to take risks. And, of course, having the capable subordinates was another major bonus.
The major potential weakness was the linear system within which he was operating. Of course, he was the best player within the system but it definitely had its vulnerabilities the main of which was an absence of the meaningful reserves on a battlefield. A complete reliance upon the magazines, needed for a generally unreliable army, was another major weakness.
Answer to the question regarding adoption of the Prussian methods was generally negative:
- Rigorous training of the Russian cavalry in the attacking style was already happening and available big numbers of the light cavalry were providing an extra edge both in and outside a battlefield.
- Battlefield formation with the 1st line of the skirmishers in the loose formations, 2nd line of the battalions in the lines (with an ability to easily form squares in the case of a cavalry attack) and the 3rd of reserve in battalion columns, flexible artillery allocation and big cavalry reserves did not look inferior to the Prussian linear formation and allowed at least the same speed of maneuver.
- Aggressiveness on a battlefield was, of course, laudable but it should not be a single tool and, anyway, a bayonet charge was in place since the LNW.
- Magazine system as the main supply method was fine when you are trying to minimize harm to the local population and to keep your army from falling apart but in an aggressive war out of the Russian territory, why would this be a consideration? Intendancy officers must be able to organize an adequate regular supply using all sources available and the troops should also be also taking care of themselves.
However, it was admitted that a potential opponent like Frederick deserves a thorough study of his methods, development of the recipes of how to deal with them and making the troops trained along these lines. Not that these assurances made Alexey completely relaxed but most of what had been said did make sense and he got used to trusting his Military Minister. The Grand Duke Peter Petrovich was sent to the Ministry to oversee the proceedings and to get a greater familiarity with an army which soon enough will be his own.
The second serious and rather complicated issue was trade with China. Of course, comparing to Britain (which amounted to up to 50% of the Russian foreign trade), China was a rather minor trade partner (slightly over 7%) but not unimportant one because it was practically the only supplier of the tea, which was growing in popularity in Russia. The trade was going through Kyakhta and was almost completely a barter. So far, the main items of the Russian export were furs (predominantly), fabrics, paper and leather and the main imports tea and sugar. The problem with the furs was that the increasing numbers of them had to be transported from Kamchatka and even Alaska, which was, even with the usage of the newly built port on Amur, a long and expensive process. The same goes for transporting tea by land all the way to the European Russia where most of the consumers lived.
The 1st circumnavigational expedition demonstrated few things:
- Chinese authorities resisted Russian trade through Canton demanding that it was limited to Kyakhta.
- Even the direct sale of the furs in Canton proved to be ineffective and the most expensive furs ended up being sailed to Russia: the Chinese were not ready to pay anything close to the market price. Situation in Kyakhta was somewhat better but it did not change the fact that transporting there the furs from Kamchatka and Alaska was not too profitable (if profitable at all).
- The whole schema on which the RAC was built looked highly questionable in a long run even with the ongoing program of settling Southern segment of the Russian Pacific coast: even putting aside an excessively high rate of hunting the sea otters and seals, for how long the company would be able to function exclusively upon the fur trade with pretty much a single customer?
The Minister of Commerce, Jackob Evreinov, proposed the following solution:
(a) Limit fur trade in Kyakhta to the Siberian furs with a stress on the cheaper ones (squirrels and red foxes ) to prevent saturation of the Chinese market with the more expensive ones. Those will be transported to Russia by land or by the sea with the option of selling all or part of them on the route (to the Ottomans, Brits, Dutch, etc.) through the existing Russian trade missions or authorized local representatives. This will apply to the RAC furs as well.
(b) In Kyakhta increase selling of the Russian woolens.
(c) Send one more mission to China requesting permission to establish a consulate in Canton and to conduct trade from it.
(d) Request to the Admiralty: start sending the regular (annual or bi-annual) circumnavigation expeditions both from the Baltic and Black Seas.
(e) RAC should have its own fleet of the merchant ships capable of the travel between the Russian Pacific coast and Alaska and to the South to the Spanish colonies in California and Philippines (find out about possibility of trade in Manila).
Mission had been sent and its appearance at Kyakhta was accompanied by a noticeable concentration of the Russian troops in a nearby Verhneudinsk.
To the worried local Chinese officials it was declared that the Russian Emperor considers behavior toward the Russian naval expedition as an unfriendly act, probably caused by an excessive zeal of the local officials, and expects that it will be remedied promptly by giving the Russian ships and merchants the same rights as enjoyed by other Europeans including establishing of a consulate in Macao. The Russian commissioner is going to wait in Kyakhta for four months and if by that time a positive answer is not received, he will act accordingly… do you want Fieldmarshal Rumyantsev to visit China again? This can be arranged.
Unfortunately for Qianlong Emperor, at that time he could not do too much for defense of his Northern territories. Thanks to his “wise” policies, the Khalka Mongols were completely impoverished and required to turn over their guns to the government [3] and to stick to their bows and arrows. Due to the oppressive taxation almost third of the male population became the buddhist monks. The Manchu bannermen had been losing their lands to the Han peasant settlers who were migrating from the Northern China and could not maintain themselves as an effective military force. Many of them had been Han adopted by the Manchu families. Of course, this did not mean that they were noticeably worse than the “true” Manchu bannermen but even those did not preform too well during the last wars.There was a distinct chance that in the case of a new war Qing is going to lose Outer Mongolia and, quite possible, a chunk of Manchuria as well.
The “European barbarians” in general had been weak and insignificant: what could they do besides sending few small ships? But the “Northern barbarians” were just across the border and already demonstrated twice that they are capable of annihilating the Qing armies without any serious effort and not long ago they subdued the strong khanates of the Central Asia as well. The hated Oirats were obviously doing much better under the Russian rule than the Khalka Mongols under Qing so in the case of a war, a massive uprising in Mongolia in the case of Russian invasion was a distinct possibility: the Khalkians had been already fleeing across the border in, so far, the small numbers.
Anyway, at least formally, the Russian caravans already had a right to travel to Beijing so why don’t allow them to settle in Canton with other barbarians?
A messenger from Beijing arrived to Kyakhta with the imperial decree stating that the Emperor considered the Russian petition and granted permission to keep Russian consulate in Canton and to conduct trade there with the same rights as other European countries.
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[1] Stolen from “History of the military art” by Mikhnevich. 😜
[2] Clausewitz described this in some details in his book on 1806 campaign.
[3] AFAIK, in OTL it was done only to the Solons starting from 1763.
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Still at peace
126. Still at peace
Soon after the RAC was founded, and definitely after the first circumnavigation, it. was getting increasingly obvious that exclusive concentration on the Chinese market is not the best business model. RAC had to expand nomenclature of its partners and the most logical one were Spanish-owned Philippines.
Even prior to the Spanish conquest the archipelago had extensive trade connections with various regions of Asia and the most important one was with China. Even after the Spanish conquest most of the trade remained in the hands of Chinese merchants and its biggest center was in Manila. It is no coincidence that this city, even during the reign of the Spaniards, served as a large transit base for oriental goods delivered here from China, Indochina, India, Japan, the islands of Indonesia, etc. These goods were exported from Manila by the Spaniards to Mexico, as well as by re-export to Spain across the Atlantic Ocean. The Spaniards bought all oriental goods in Manila with Mexican silver much of which was ending up in China. However, trade with the Eastern goods in the Americas and in Europe was producing the huge profits, up to 1,000%.
The second half of the 18th century became a time of increased interest of Russian government and trade circles in the Philippine market. This was caused by a number of reasons. The main among them were:
The most active proponents of establishing direct ties between the Russian Empire and the Philippines were the Russian dipllmats who served in Madrid. One of them sent to Moscow a proposal on that subject. To establish trade relations, the author of the note proposed to use gallions that were sent annually from Acapulco and San Blas to the Philippines. He believed that it would be possible to deliver the necessary goods from Manila to Kamchatka on 3 ships, and from Russia to deliver domestic goods to the islands. The best time to send ships from the Philippines was the end of July, when constant southern winds blow, and from Kamchatka - mid-September, when northeast and north winds dominate. With this approach, the travel time including unloading would be reduced to 2.5 months. Particular attention in the note was paid to the issue of establishing a trade representative office in Manila so that the Russian trade agent could solve all the problems arising in Russian-Philippine trade on the spot. All these plans were designed to solve one of the most important tasks of that time: to provide the necessary food and industrial goods to the Russian Far East, including Kamchatka and the islands on the Northern Pacific.
Naturally, for implementation of this schema (or its modification) clarification of a number of issues and an agreement from Madrid were necessary. Russian ambassador in Madrid got an instruction to acquire the needed data regarding the Philippines. The items included collection of information on Archipelago products, prices for Philippine goods (especially grain and flour, iron, copper, mast forest, ropes, sail cloth, resin, tar, alcohol, tobacco, leather, wool fabrics, etc.), domestic and foreign trade of the Philippines (including China and India), Spanish trade legislation regarding the archipelago, means of payment in trade. All that information had to be collected secretly but the effort also had to be made to get Spanish agreement on appointment the Russian consul in Manila. The last item took few years and only in the early 1761 the official consulate was established, just few months prior to the British occupation of Manila (during the sack of which all sides involved narrowly avoided a serious international scandal). Prior to this, the trade was going on in the usual “Spanish fashion”: formally, it was characterized as a contraband ignored by the local authorities.
The main deviation from the proposed schema was that instead of the 3 big Spanish ships a greater number of the smaller RCA ships had been engaged in Phillippines-Kamchatka trade. With the increasing population of the Amur region a need of the food supplies was steadily decreasing but it was still cheaper to get some items from the Philippines than to carry them all the way from European Russia by land or sea. The same goes for selling part of the Kamchatka furs there: as bad as it was, the Spanish administration was much easier to deal with than their Chinese colleagues and, Manila being an international port, there was more than one option.
In the Russian domestic market the most popular Philippines’ domestic product were manila cigars.
Not that all these measures could prevent the RAC from the long-term problems caused by a limited nature of its merchandise but for a while it was kept alive and even generally profitable, at least as long as the government kept its hands off the management [1]. However, securing a permanent trade with the Philippines allowed to conduct the trade activities unrelated to RAC and was instrumental in expansion of the Russian merchant fleet. Of course, the trade volume was quite small, especially comparing to Britain, but it was better than nothing.
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[1] In OTL it was actively interfering in the company management putting in the high positions the people who had nothing to do with a commerce. Who and why would make a nincompoop like K. Ryleyev a manager of the St. Petersburg office of the company? What was the point in assigning the naval officers as its directors?
Soon after the RAC was founded, and definitely after the first circumnavigation, it. was getting increasingly obvious that exclusive concentration on the Chinese market is not the best business model. RAC had to expand nomenclature of its partners and the most logical one were Spanish-owned Philippines.
Even prior to the Spanish conquest the archipelago had extensive trade connections with various regions of Asia and the most important one was with China. Even after the Spanish conquest most of the trade remained in the hands of Chinese merchants and its biggest center was in Manila. It is no coincidence that this city, even during the reign of the Spaniards, served as a large transit base for oriental goods delivered here from China, Indochina, India, Japan, the islands of Indonesia, etc. These goods were exported from Manila by the Spaniards to Mexico, as well as by re-export to Spain across the Atlantic Ocean. The Spaniards bought all oriental goods in Manila with Mexican silver much of which was ending up in China. However, trade with the Eastern goods in the Americas and in Europe was producing the huge profits, up to 1,000%.
The second half of the 18th century became a time of increased interest of Russian government and trade circles in the Philippine market. This was caused by a number of reasons. The main among them were:
- Increased needs of the Russian domestic market for specific goods and raw materials delivered from Southeast Asia;
- Expansion of the geography of the merchant sea navigation of the domestic fleet;
- Growing activities of the Russian-American Company in a significant area of the Pacific Ocean.
The most active proponents of establishing direct ties between the Russian Empire and the Philippines were the Russian dipllmats who served in Madrid. One of them sent to Moscow a proposal on that subject. To establish trade relations, the author of the note proposed to use gallions that were sent annually from Acapulco and San Blas to the Philippines. He believed that it would be possible to deliver the necessary goods from Manila to Kamchatka on 3 ships, and from Russia to deliver domestic goods to the islands. The best time to send ships from the Philippines was the end of July, when constant southern winds blow, and from Kamchatka - mid-September, when northeast and north winds dominate. With this approach, the travel time including unloading would be reduced to 2.5 months. Particular attention in the note was paid to the issue of establishing a trade representative office in Manila so that the Russian trade agent could solve all the problems arising in Russian-Philippine trade on the spot. All these plans were designed to solve one of the most important tasks of that time: to provide the necessary food and industrial goods to the Russian Far East, including Kamchatka and the islands on the Northern Pacific.
Naturally, for implementation of this schema (or its modification) clarification of a number of issues and an agreement from Madrid were necessary. Russian ambassador in Madrid got an instruction to acquire the needed data regarding the Philippines. The items included collection of information on Archipelago products, prices for Philippine goods (especially grain and flour, iron, copper, mast forest, ropes, sail cloth, resin, tar, alcohol, tobacco, leather, wool fabrics, etc.), domestic and foreign trade of the Philippines (including China and India), Spanish trade legislation regarding the archipelago, means of payment in trade. All that information had to be collected secretly but the effort also had to be made to get Spanish agreement on appointment the Russian consul in Manila. The last item took few years and only in the early 1761 the official consulate was established, just few months prior to the British occupation of Manila (during the sack of which all sides involved narrowly avoided a serious international scandal). Prior to this, the trade was going on in the usual “Spanish fashion”: formally, it was characterized as a contraband ignored by the local authorities.
The main deviation from the proposed schema was that instead of the 3 big Spanish ships a greater number of the smaller RCA ships had been engaged in Phillippines-Kamchatka trade. With the increasing population of the Amur region a need of the food supplies was steadily decreasing but it was still cheaper to get some items from the Philippines than to carry them all the way from European Russia by land or sea. The same goes for selling part of the Kamchatka furs there: as bad as it was, the Spanish administration was much easier to deal with than their Chinese colleagues and, Manila being an international port, there was more than one option.
In the Russian domestic market the most popular Philippines’ domestic product were manila cigars.
Not that all these measures could prevent the RAC from the long-term problems caused by a limited nature of its merchandise but for a while it was kept alive and even generally profitable, at least as long as the government kept its hands off the management [1]. However, securing a permanent trade with the Philippines allowed to conduct the trade activities unrelated to RAC and was instrumental in expansion of the Russian merchant fleet. Of course, the trade volume was quite small, especially comparing to Britain, but it was better than nothing.
____________
[1] In OTL it was actively interfering in the company management putting in the high positions the people who had nothing to do with a commerce. Who and why would make a nincompoop like K. Ryleyev a manager of the St. Petersburg office of the company? What was the point in assigning the naval officers as its directors?
with Russia now interested in southeast Asia, would it make it possible for Russia to create an oversea colony in Indonesia
Well, even in this enhanced mode Russia is not a serious naval competitor to Britain, France, Spain or the Netherlands. OTOH, taking into an account that a final Dutch conquest belongs to the XIX century, this is something to think about but I need a little bit of a reading on the subject to avoid “the mighty cranberry” type of nonsense. If they can bring enough of the naval force into the region, then they can bring enough troops as well and beat the Dutch at least to some of the conquests especially when and if everybody is busy with the Revolutionary Wars or perhaps even earlier.
Can you please remind me when we are in the 1770s? At least the Brits has to be otherwise occupied. 😉
Edit: In OTL most of the naval activities in the region had been conducted by the RAC which had limited resources and looked at the whole picture from the perspective of supporting its settlements in Alaska. IITL, the RAC is almost a side show because the government is directly involved and so are the individual traders. Also, a naval base in Nikolaevsk-on-Amur and earlier settlement of the Russian Pacific coast provides significantly different resources in the terms of the naval and military resources on the Pacific. So in a couple decades all necessary components will be in place including non-zero merchant fleet and some credit institutions. If Russia is permitted to have a trade post in Manila, then how exactly the local administration, especially after debacle of 1761-63, will be able to forbid the “friendly” visits of the Russian navy and why would it be trying to do such a thing, especially if there were some friendly diplomatic activities during the sack of Manila?
The naval route also looks rather straightforward: Nicholaevsk-on-Amur - Nevelskoy Strait - ( Nagasaki - Macau) - Manila - Kalimantan & Sulawesi. Earlier “opening” of Japan, at least Nagasaki, will be helpful.
Of course, I was trying to minimize the colonial adventures but it is either them, or getting up to the ears in the Revolutionary & Napoleonic wars, or boring everybody to death with the details of the tariffs, technological progress (about which I’ll have to learn) and monetary policies (about which I’ll not even try to learn: tried and failed miserably). 😜
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Between the Balkan Maffia, the greater and earlier success in the Caucasus and the more successful investment in the East you're building a Russia that is much more Asian focused. Which brings many benefits like not getting involved in the European dick measuring contests and revolutionary wars (Nappy), as well as threats: the British didn't like Russia competing in the great game so "close" to India. I'd expect a mix of appeasement (giving Chinese/Spanish territory that takes decades to swallow), stimulation of non-competing interests like indeed Indonesia, Philippines but definitely Alaska as well as some anti Russian alliances and saber rattling. Thing is, both with the Chinese territory and the anti Russian alliances the Empire isn't quite up to 1800-1900 level of power, nor are their partners that viable yet.
So I'd focus on 2 & 1, in that order, as the British. And a Dutch - British increased alliance, so Russia can be kept out of Indonesia and India (so basically out of the Indian Ocean)
So I'd focus on 2 & 1, in that order, as the British. And a Dutch - British increased alliance, so Russia can be kept out of Indonesia and India (so basically out of the Indian Ocean)
I believe it's Baltic league and Central Asia.
Regarding revolutionary wars, it really depends on weather Napoleon rise's , i believe in that case Russia will more, or less be forced to be involved as Nappy may try to force his continental system on them as well, nor is it in Russian interest for France to basically control Europe.
Also it would be good for Russia to get involved in some European warfare and get some defeats, personally later part of Napoleonic wars where he invades would be good option.
Otherwise why would Russia want Philippines ? Or Spanish territories that are hard to defend? Or manage? Russia is more , or less continental power , no need to commit itself to the sea and suffer overstretch in territories it cannot reasonably defend. Same with Chinese territories , i believe that Russia achieved the limits of it's expansion for foreseeable future, otherwise Russia should have no interest to start some sort of great Game with the British, or to go towards the Indian ocean as it's logistically impossible. I could see them trying to increase their influence in Persian court in that regard, but not outright expanding in that direction .
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You guys are getting ahead of me. 😂
I just finished a very superficial research on the Dutch Indonesia and the results are, let’s say, ambivalent.
On one hand, there was a serious Dutch-British competition which the Dutch eventually won with a loss of a part of Borneo. Then, the Dutch conquest of Indonesia stretched all the way to the XX century so there definitely can be an opening for getting some of the “fringe” pieces either before the Dutch are getting them or by using a less oppressive policies (as the Brits were doing when they established control during the Napoleonic wars).
But there are a lot of “but’s”. To start with, what’s the goal? The Dutch had been producing very little things of their own so for them cornering a coffee (and not only) market was a very import thing. OTOH, Russia IITL is looking for the markets to sell its products, both raw and manufactured (with a growing stress on the manufactured) so what does it go to sell to the “natives”? And there would be a need to breed the brand new class of the farmers knowledgeable in growing the “exotic” things, getting used to the plantation system, dealing with the local rulers, religious and not religious rebellions, etc. It is much easier and cheaper to keep buying these products from the Dutch.
One more thing to remember is that while the Russian exports in both OTL and THL are mostly the broadly used products, the imports, with the exception of tea and sugar, were/are the luxury goods consumed mostly by the upper classes and even then, mostly by a rich part of these classes (for example, the average estate owners simply could not afford the French wines and used the Russian ones). Coffee never had such a broad popularity as a tea so all that expensive colonial adventure would be pretty much for nothing while requiring some “unnatural” developments like a powerful Pacific navy and a big merchant fleet, a need of unrealistic development of the Russian Pacific coast, a need of the reliable places to stay on the route to Europe aka, reliance upon Britain, France, Netherlands, Spain or participation in the colonial conquests in the Indo-China and Africa. Time of the rubber is not there, yet, so the whole schema makes even less economic sense than Alaska, which was providing for a while a valuable commodity to be bartered for the tea.
Now, as far as competition with Britain is going, we are not in OTL where the Great Game took place because both sides had been expanding simultaneously. IITL, Russian expansion in the CA is complete before the Brits became a dominant power in India. The CA territories which in OTL were up to grabs are firmly Russian and there are no British aspirations regarding the Khanates while OTOH, there are no further Russian territorial advance which was making the Brits so nervous: few caravans circulating between Bukhara and Afghan territories are not enough fir the national paranoia.
Persia is a different issue and sooner or later IITL Russia is going to get Azerbaijan area (I’ll have to figure out how to avoid major problems with Chechnya and Dagestan) and force some kind of a trade treaty upon Persia. However, the OTL tensions with the Brits can be avoided by the OTL solution of splitting spheres of influence.
Not sure how conquest of the Philippines came into the picture. We ended up with the Russian consulate in Manila, which makes sense both from the RAC perspective and because it indirectly opens trade with Japan through the local Chinese merchants.
Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars are in the future but so far I can’t really see why, with any reasonable monarch, Russia would get involved in this mess unless the Brits are going to start arresting the Russian (and the League in general) ships sailing to France. Taking into an account that the League’s trade with France is limited and that, OTOH, it is vitally important for Britain (and that a combined League’s navy is a very serious force), such an action does not look likely. Unless, of course, I’m grossly underestimating the British obsession with the issue.
Nappy’s CS in its OTL form was a byproduct of the coalitions in which Russia was playing an active role. Of course, if Nappy is occupying Denmark or Swedish Pomerania, Russia is forced to interfere but will he do such a thing IITL? Probability is non-zero but IMO it is rather low. Russian interest in the rest of Europe is more or less dictated by the overland trade, which was reasonably substantial but, IIRC, the transit trade was mostly happening with Prussia and mostly from Russia. Nappy would just have to enforce the high tariffs on the British-origin goods crossing the borders of Pax Napoleonica.
Well, we are not on that stage, yet, and I’m trying to figure out how to fill the gap between 1758 and IITL Partition. 😢
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Duh, my bad. That's what I meant, but did not type. Thanks!
That my fault. As I understood it the safety of India was the number one priority for the British. A Russia that is close to Perzia/Iran and Afghanistan is something they OTL were paranoid of. So I started speculating what I would do as the British. OTL the strategy was ally against (e.g. the Japanese), fight (e.g. Crimean War, Afghanistan) and keep busy. The British also were very good in giving away other people's property, so Chinese and Spanish territory fits the bill. Hence the upgrade of taking over Manilla specifically and the Philippines in general comes to mind, since it would occupy Russian interest quite a while.
Key question would be why Russia would accept. Well, there are a lot of resources in the Philippines that are useful in the RFE, like Iron, Copper, Gold etc. Plus as you say its an important trade hub that also has food shortages (but that might be too recent). It could spin into more development in the RFE, a more successful RAC and a Russia that stays away from India. And who is about to sack Manilla?
They were (AFAIK) the Brits were mostly paranoid of the continued Russian advancement into what they were considered their potential sphere of interest (and eventually India). Here the things are more or less settled (Russian CA and Kashgar) before the Brits can start getting engaged into wishful thinking. Mapping of the pretty much worthless mountain areas is a separate issue but it is not serious enough for a serious conflict. Afghanistan was, indeed, for a while a contentious issue but mostly, again, due to the uncertainty. Notice that in OTL this issue was closed after the settlement of Kushka oasis.
But IITL the Great Game is pretty much non-existent and the Russian plans for partitioning the Ottoman Empire are absent. Conflicts may exist but a framework which made the CW possible will not necessarily happen. To start with, Russian-Ottoman conflict and the whole OTL Russian policy regarding the Balkans does not exist. Then Russian-French conflict was almost 100% byproduct of NI’s insane policy. Finally, Russian military weakness in the CW definitely was a result of NIs reign (economically and militarily).
And they would want to be “occupied” why exactly?
Does not make sense because gold, iron and copper are widely available IITL Russia and it is more interested in exporting its own copper to China than to keep buying Japanese copper, bringing it to Manila and selling it to China. Why bother with the conquest of the whole island (which the Brits failed to accomplish) when it is much easier and cheaper to trade through Manila?
It was looted in 1762 when the Brits took it. It looks like everybody was involved: the British and Spanish soldiers and the locals as well.