No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

“All the efforts and expenses of the government can only lead to education within the Russian borders of an independent Chinese-Korean province.”
I.V. Furugelm, governor of the Primorye, 1865
Weird thing with GT is that it keeps mistranslation formation as education.
 
Wait, Louisiana is Mexican?
That's interesting.
I thought that it was decided between you, guys that New Orleans with LA is not going to the US. After which, in a purely voluntaristic fashion, I decided that it ends up with Mexico as a part of the independence deal: Spain can’t maintain it realistically.
 
I thought that it was decided between you, guys that New Orleans with LA is not going to the US. After which, in a purely voluntaristic fashion, I decided that it ends up with Mexico as a part of the independence deal: Spain can’t maintain it realistically.
How does the US make it to Oregon if the Louisiana Territory is Mexican?
 
Well, I guess New Orleans is the most important city in Northern Mexico.

At the same time I also think that the US will not declare war on Mexico, among other reasons. Because its population does not want.

On the other hand, what version of the ACW are we seeing? the normal one or did you go for the extended and more destructive one.
 
Well, I guess New Orleans is the most important city in Northern Mexico.

At the same time I also think that the US will not declare war on Mexico, among other reasons. Because its population does not want.

Yes, going into a new major military adventure after a very costly war probably would not be a very popular idea. Especially with some new territories on the West being open for the settlement.

On the other hand, what version of the ACW are we seeing? the normal one or did you go for the extended and more destructive one.
I just skipped the issue. 😜

Tried various options and decided that I don’t want to go into it because if I did, this would inevitably lead to a prolonged discussion of alt-ACW. As for the destruction, it was bad enough as it was and with Mexico being more attractive for the investments than in OTL, the post-ACW US needs more time for recuperation.
 
Wait, Louisiana is Mexican?
That's interesting.

New Orleans is Mexican because after Lousisiana Purchase of ITTL Spain choose to keep it as part of new Spain.

  • We are talking about the 1870s and what was considered OK few decades later may produce a strong international reaction now and this may not be advisable for the country which is so far is an exporter of the agricultural goods (Europe survived the cotton crisis and there are alternative sources, in grain export the US is far from being #1 player).
  • The US is far from being one of the world’s great powers and its economy is still greatly dependent upon the foreign investments and its banking system is lacking the OTL bullion resulting from the CA gold rush. Even in OTL sudden interruption of the German investments led to a major economic crisis.
  • There are strong European (German, French, British) economic interests in Mexico.
  • Unlike OTL, Mexican army is stronger while after the ACW most of the US Army was disbanded.
  • Some of the territories which in OTL went to Mexico earlier now have considerable white population that has no intention to change status quo and not have any links to the US.

These seems logical, plus USA was more than ready (even preferred) to purchase territories from Spain/Mexico, especially if they seemed strong .

I could see some sort of major purchase taking place paired with border settlement/treaty.
Besides the obvious question why would the US be ready to go to war for the “forested north part”, the problems of “better links” had been successfully handled by construction of the railroads. Anyway, based upon the map, the “link” seems to be a wide enough: Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming.

On second hand why would Mexico want to hold those lands. Personally I would exchange Southern Nevada (everything North of Virginia City goes to US) for Northern California.

That way USA gets more of Pacific coast while Mexico (if we want to go in details), gets Virginia City founded on Comstock Lode , there was Silver Rush in 1859 and subsequent immigration boom. I see no reason why Mexico shouldn't encourage further settlement of frontier territories.
 
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New Orleans is Mexican because after Lousisiana Purchase of ITTL Spain choose to keep it as part of new Spain.



These seems logical, plus USA was more than ready (even preferred) to purchase territories from Spain/Mexico, especially if they seemed strong .

I could see some sort of major purchase taking place paired with border settlement/treaty.


On second hand why would Mexico want to hold those lands. Personally I would exchange Southern Nevada (everything North of Virginia City goes to US) for Northern California.

That way USA gets more of Pacific coast while Mexico (if we want to go in details), gets Virginia City founded on Comstock Lode , there was Silver Rush in 1859 and subsequent immigration boom. I see no reason why Mexico shouldn't encourage further settlement of frontier territories.
That seems reasonable. How about the following:
  • CA split (East to West): from North of the Lake Tahoe across the Sacramento Valley to the Clear Lake and then to Pt. Arena.
  • Nevada from North of Lake Tahoe and North of Virginia City (between VC and Reno, to make certain things easier for the future Americans 😂) across the ridges on the level of the modern Fallon - Austin - Eureka - Ruth and North of Wheeler Pk. As an alternative, the border goes by the Humboldt River but the US is also getting a small piece on the South (say, approximately along Route 15 to include future Las Vegas, etc.). Silver at that point of no special importance for the US (gold standard since 1873) and for most of the Latin America (the same) but Mexico may keep using the silver coins and to sell them in the Pacific ports for trade with China.
 
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That seems reasonable. How about the following:
  • CA split (East to West): from North of the Lake Tahoe across the Sacramento Valley to the Clear Lake and then to Pt. Arena.
  • Nevada from North of Lake Tahoe and North of Virginia City (between VC and Reno, to make certain things easier for the future Americans 😂) across the ridges on the level of the modern Fallon - Austin - Eureka - Ruth and North of Wheeler Pk. As an alternative, the border goes by the Humboldt River but the US is also getting a small piece on the South (say, approximately along Route 15 to include future Las Vegas, etc.). Silver at that point of no special importance for the US (gold standard since 1873) and for most of the Latin America (the same) but Mexico may keep using the silver coins and to sell them in the Pacific ports for trade with China.

Well heres a rough skech of the border from my understanding of the directives, i did use straight lines though .

drawing-4.svg
 
Why? Alaska was purchased in 1867 and in 1870 -72 things were going fine.
Well, should they buy they will be in trouble when it's time to pay back when their economy tanks. You could have butterflies flapping and have a US-Mexican war with debt repayment as a causes belli. It wouldn't be the first time war is started to avoid looking at the shitty home situation.
 
Things necessary
279. Things necessary
“You gentlemen, are making mistake walking without galoshes in this wether… firstly, you will catch a cold, and secondly, you’ll leave dirt on carpets, and all my carpets are Persian."
M.Bulgakov, “Dog’s heart”
“People ... owe it exclusively to them that they look descent in a society...”
V.A.Sollogub
Rain with no shoes is just as much fun as rain with big rubber galoshes.” [1]
Carew Papritz, The Legacy Letters: his Wife, his Children, his Final Gift


For centuries, three materials have been used in Eurasia to make shoes: leather, wood (counting and bast) and fabric. Alas, all three have a common drawback - they are afraid of water. And systematically wet legs very easily turn from household problem into a state one. After all, it is the service person who spends the most time in the open air, and therefore needs good clothes and shoes. With the onset of the cold rainy autumn, half of the active army could get a cold and where did you see the sneezing heroes with the running noses? What was at least equally bad is that the aristocrats and other important people could end up with the wet feet, cold and almost inevitable death in the hands of the medical professionals [2].

The problem was very serious in Russian Empire on more than one account. In the European Russia there was a lot of rains and snow, not to mention elementary dirt on the streets so, besides obvious desire not to get wet feet, there was also a desire not to bring street dirt into the houses. And, in the case of the social events, entering a ballroom, etc. in the dirty shoes would not look nice.

In 1735, the French traveler Charles-Marie de la Condamine (1701-1774) went to explore the Amazon basin, where he met the Hevea brasiliensis tree and its milk juice, latex. Sticky lumps of substance called "kauchu" (caoutchouc) were evaporated from it by the Indians, and called rubber by the sages of the Paris Academy of Sciences (from the Latin word resina, reisnae - that is, resin, gum). Natives have long used latex to diffuse the fabrics with which they covered themselves from the rain. It turned out that such a fabric does not only perfectly withstand moisture - it guarantees almost one hundred percent water resistance. Brought to Europe as an overseas curiosity, rubber did not immediately find its use. It took many decades before it was figured out that this gift of the Americas is no less important than gold, tobacco and syphilis [3]. Anyway, discovery of its importance was closely related to the problem of the wet feet.

The fabric saturated with natural latex has a serious drawback, only partially familiar to the Amazonian Indians: when heated in the sun, such a fabric became sticky (probably the natives were OK with this), and in the cold (not too much snow in Amazonia, AFAIK) - on the contrary, hardened like stone, and even cracked. The latter was perhaps its main drawback in the case of Europe. After all, the new overseas material was appreciated, first of all, for its plasticity, resistance to bends and other mechanical influences - which traditional European water repellent agents did not possess.

Nevertheless, in 1791, the English shoemaker Samuel Peal (1751-1818) patented his method of making fabrics impregnated with a turpentine rubber solution, which, however, did not save him from ruin in 1793, but brought prosperity to the Peal & Co. Apparently, around this time, the first experiments began to protect shoes with a kind of covers made of such fabric. But fame was achieved only by the man who made the first cloak out of it - the Scot Charles Macintosh (1766-1843), who gave his name to his raincoats. He mixed rubber with various fillers (soots, oils, sulfur), trying to change its physical properties.

The true rubber was created only in 1839, when American researcher Charles Goodyear (1880-1860), accidentally forgetting a piece of Mackintosh fabric on the stove, discovered the vulcanization method - a chemical process during which sulfur atoms connect the molecular chains of rubber, turning it into an elastic and persistent material. And a real boom on rubberized fabric and rubber shoes began in the world. And at first, the most important manufacturer of galoshes was the North American United States - they were exported to different countries of the world, including Russia. They were not cheap, and only the rich could buy them at first. [4]

At first, the most important manufacturer of galoshes was the United States - they were exported to different countries of the world, including Russia. The production of rubber galoshes was possible only in a factory where there was serious equipment: machines for making rubber compound rolling it into calender sheets, vulcanization autoclaves, molds, etc. Not to mention the auxiliary equipment that produces steam and drives these mechanisms. Working with such equipment required special training, and its management required technical education in general. As a result, the galoshes were not cheap, and only the rich could buy them at first.
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In 1859, German entrepreneur Ferdinand von Krauskopf arrived in St. Petersburg. He represented the interests of the American "galosh" company that opened production in Hamburg.
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Seeing the huge prospects of the Russian market, Herr Krauzkopf quickly found investors and a year later founded the "Partnership of the Russian-American Manufactory", which built Russia's first factory for the production of galoshes, later called "Triangle".

The complexity of production is evidenced by the fact that the first employees of this factory were foreign specialists - and at the same time Russian workers and engineers were trained. Respect for valuable personnel is evidenced by the fact of social arrangement of Triangle employees: at the expense of the enterprise, apartment buildings, a nursery and a school for their children (below), a recreation center and even a bowling alley were built for them.
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Being waterproof was not the only advantage of rubber shoes. Galoshes served their owners for twenty years or more until the rubber began to crack. They were very easy to care for: it was enough to wash the galoshes from the dirt, and they became like new again. And to give them a more elegant look, galoshes began to be lacquered - covering the product with a thin layer of special composition based on rubber.
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At the same time, in the XIX century, experiments were carried out to produce galoshes of another, not only black color - as a result of which colored rubber appeared, which later became a material for the production of toys, sports and tourist goods.
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The secret of creating rubber was carefully guarded by the company. Each technician or engineer who entered the job gave a subscription: no one except the board of the partnership and the persons specified by the board should not be informed about what is happening at the plant, as well as not to open to anyone a way of preparing any rubber or asbestos product. All technical secrets were also hidden from the workers. Masters, when preparing a mixture, demanded to leave them alone.
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Since 1888, a trademark has appeared on the galoshes - a triangle with the initial letters of the company inside, over time the word "triangle" became the name of the factory - "Triangle". The factory got status of the Supplier of the Imperial Court.

After the opening, the enterprise immediately went uphill, as the Krauzkopf rubber factory was actually a monopolistist: foreign competitors did not enter the Russian market due to low duties on the import of rubber and high duties on the import of foreign products, and similar domestic enterprises did not appear for 30 years. A year after its opening, the rubber plant produced about 1000 pairs of galoshes per day - then it was the main product of the rubber industry, "shoe covers" were used by almost the entire urban population. Due to the high demand for products, profits were huge, and the partnership did not even publish its annual balance sheet so as not to attract other entrepreneurs to its niche.

It is known that in 1900 Triangle paid its shareholders up to 40% of dividends. This is an unprecedented figure - for example, owners of Putilov’s shares at that time received only 7-8% of income. In just the first 50 years of its existence, the factory produced 282 million pairs of galoshes. From 1900 to 1912, the production of rubber shoes, namely galoshes, increased from 10 million pairs to 20 million per year. At the same time, a quarter of the products were exported to Europe and the United States. On the eve of the First World War, this export brought more than 5 million rubles a year.

The popularity of galoshes grew like fast, and if for the rich they were just a means of protection against water, then for ordinary people they became the main element of the fashion of that time. First of all, such an unchanged part of the then winter costume as felt boots was put into the galoshes. After a while, winter galoshes appeared on a warm red baize lining. They were softer, warmer and did not damage leather shoes.
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But galoshes were worn not only in wet weather. Lightweight felt or cotton boots of white color with black galoshes (burki) have become the most fashionable winter/autumn shoes of wealthy peasants, clerks and merchants.

The galoshes were a part of the holiday/weekend dress-code: boots with galoshes, new pants, a silk or satin shirt, a vest or a "pinjack" (jacket), hairs lubricated with oil - in this “uniform” the the stylish members of a lower class went out for the social visits, for holidays, to the meetings with their superiors. Being wealthy enough to allow all that attire was something of a status symbol, especially among the peasants (the poor ones still had been wearing the bast shoes).
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The lack of citywide sewers both in the remote province and in large cities was especially felt in the off-season. "In Berdichevy, Zhytomyr, Rostov, Poltava - dirt knee-deep. The dirt is brown, viscous, smelly..." wrote A.P. Chekhov in 1882. And the chairman of the Moscow District Court N.V. Davydov recalled that "pedestrians lost galoshes in the mud, and sometimes hired a cabman specifically for crossing to the other side of the square...". Evil tongues assured that if you count the number of galoshes irretrievably sucked with urban mud and convert it into monetary equivalent, it would be possible to make marble sidewalks for this amount.

Galohes were usually left in the hallways. The accumulation of rubber shoes in apartment buildings and public places caused a lot of trouble - the owners were confused. An elegant way to distinguish faceless "upper shoes" was invented by Peter Saveliev: he opened trade by small (about 2 cm) metal letters, which were attached as initials to the kalosh insole. This "marking" has become widespread. Street traders of the iron alphabet puzzled foreigners very much.
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All types of galoshes could be seen on Russian roads! Winter - on dog, cat, merlush fur, protecting their feet from wet snow and cold; deep and "small" demi-season - on a wool or cotton lining; ladies - "with a place for a French heel" and half-galoshes - who left the heel outside...

On a sad note, in the early 2000s the factory went bankrupt and its buildings are almost completely destroyed.
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___________
[1] I wonder if he tried his idea of having fun in a freezing rain…
[2] It can be argued that bloodletting was an effective method of curing the cold (and so was the guillotine): by the end of a treatment patient did not have a cold. The rest could be easily written off upon sloppily formulated task.
[3] The gifts do not necessarily have to be useful (for example, the Trojan Horse). Anyway, Pushkin in “Little Tragedies” defined syphilis this way: “… and new disease, which was recently gifted to you.”
[4] To be fair, by that time there was an alternative: leather galoshes. Their advantage was low technology - they could be easily made at home or small shop by a reasonably skilled person; Lev Tolstoy, who was, as a matter of principle, against progress (unless it was suiting him), even learned how to make his own leather galoshes. But the low technology was the only advantage of this alternative: they were heavy, did not survive for ling and (a trifle) did not provide a good protection against moisture.
 
Loose ends #1
280. Loose ends #1
“Save money. Look for where you can buy products cheaper or wholesale. Make a shopping list in advance and buy only what's on the list.”
John Davison Rockefeller
“Money doesn't smell, but they evaporate.”
Stanislav Jerzy Lec
“The highest achievements of economic thought occur during periods of economic decline.”
Buchwald's Law
“Before buying anything, people should ask themselves three questions. First, do I need this thing? The second one - do I really want to buy it? Thirdly, can I do without her? Otherwise, everything they buy becomes garbage.”
Bernard Werber
“Me and my cousin Francis have the coinciding interests….”
Emperor Charles V [1]


mid-1870s

US - Mexico

President of the US Ulysses S. Grant and President of Mexico Sebastián Lerdo de Tejada y Corral had surprisingly coinciding interests. Both of them needed to do something to improve their popularity.

Grant’s presidency recently suffered a number of the setbacks:
1673646617009.png

  • The Southern Democrats just defeated an attempt to establish a free trade treaty with the Kingdom of Hawaii, which would incorporate Pacific islands' sugar industry into the United States' economic sphere hurting the interests of the domestic sugar and rice producers. [2]
  • The Indians massacred George Armstrong Custer and 268 of his men at the Battle of the Little Big Horn and while the public was demanding a revenge, Grant castigated Custer in the press, saying "I regard Custer's massacre as a sacrifice of troops, brought on by Custer himself, that was wholly unnecessary—wholly unnecessary."
  • There were continued corruption scandals during his presidency, some of them involving his close relatives.
  • Last but not least, The Coinage Act of 1873 had been blamed for the Panic of 1873, ongoing depression, high unemployment, massive bankruptcies (and probably the bad weather as well). The Republicans had been losing the Southern states, farmers and workers and majority in the House (and made public the problems in the federal administration). In general, financial crisis heavily hurt the farmers with a resulting drop of the grain production and exports revenue.
So he obviously needed to do something, which was going to be popular on a big scale.

In Mexico President Lerdo de Tejada also had numerous problems:
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  • He needed to keep his supporters …er… enthusiastic and this required all types of “carrots”.
  • He needed to eliminate the regional caudillos by military force and this required money.
  • Lerdo de Tejada continued projects initiated by Juarez, most visibly the construction of railways. And this required a lot of money. Especially taking into an account that he (rather wisely) was refusing to let the US companies into this business and the Mexican railroad company died trying.
  • He wanted, contrary to the Mexican constitution, to follow footsteps of his predecessor and get reelected and for this he needed a lot of money to buy support because the idea was not popular.
Well, fortunately for the sides involved, each of them had something to offer and Grant’s Secretary of State Hamilton Fish was quite good in figuring out opportunities even if the affairs with annexation of the Dominican Republic and “treaty” with Hawaii failed.

Negotiations between the US and Mexico started discretely and soon enough it became clear that a mutual consent is not a problem: Grant was ready to buy and de Tejada to sell the mostly empty [3] lands on the Mexican North. The questions on both sides were just how much and for how much? After a little bit of a healthy bargaining the agreement, called Fish Purchase, was achieved. Mexican territories North of 39° 5' N (North of Sacramento, Lake Tahoe and Carson City) and from here to the East the 120th meridian West to 36° N are going to be sold to the US for $8,000,000 in gold [4].

Northern California. In Northern California the timber industry was an immediate hit. The logging companies that quickly arose believed that there was not only a great demand for lumber, but that California had a plentiful and untapped supply. Indeed, two major factors influenced the rapid rise of California's timber industry: an abundance of forest lands and the belief that such forests contained an inexhaustible supply of lumber. "Growing on both slopes of the Sierra between elevations of 3,000 and 8,000 feet, reaching heights over 150 feet and diameters of between ten and fifteen feet, sugar pine comprised 15 percent of the timber stand in California outside the redwood region." The Pacific Coast, however, had the greatest resource - the old-growth redwood forests. A single old-growth redwood "yielded between 40,000 and 100,000 board feet of lumber" (one board foot is one foot square and one inch thick.) A single redwood could provide enough lumber for a large structure - such as a church or hotel. And redwood was resilient - it resisted rot, decay, and fire as well as insect infestation.
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Logging redwoods was difficult and dangerous. Loggers and their tools were inadequate to deal with the giant trees. They were too large for ordinary saws and too heavy and large for easy transportation. Transporting logs to mills depended upon animals and abundant water. The procedure was slow and expensive, as well as limited with weather conditions. Loggers could only cut redwoods that grew within about 2,000 feet of a riverbank so that they could flow to a mill.
“In these mills, as in the woods, one is quickly impressed with the fact that the work is not the easiest in the world, nor the most desirable to a 'thin-skinned' person. The incessant din of machinery, the flying belts and pulleys, the endless chains, the rattle and jar, the escape of steam, not to mention the inclines and chutes and other contrivances which seem to be ever waiting to swallow up the unwary, must make it a perfect pandemonium and place of fear and dread.”
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To deal with these issues the short railroad lines were built to transport logs from the forest to the mill, steam engines were installed in lumber mills to replace waterwheels. Laborers were recruited both from within the United States and various regions of the world. Relatively high wages, especially in the redwoods, attracted both European and Chinese immigrants. By the early 1880s there were over 300 sawmills and 20 years later, more than a third of the old growth forest was gone. In some areas deforestation reached the level which forced the sawmills to close down.
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Mexico. Effect of the Coinage Act of 1873 was not limited to the US. The general demonetization and cheapening of silver caused the Latin Monetary Union in 1873 to suspend the conversion of silver to coins. The Union included: France, Italy, Switzerland, Greece, Peru, Columbia, and Venezuela. Germany switched to gold even earlier. As a result, the silver mining industry in and near Carson city (“Comstock Lode”) was on a verge of a bankruptcy and was not considered as a serious factor during the Fish Purchase.

However, soon enough things started looking better because there were “nuances”: there was a huge market, which was not giving a blip about the bimetallism, gold standard and all other “barbaric” inventions and wanted all its trade to be conducted in the silver coins. It was China and actually the whole East Asia. Prior to 1873 the usual practice for the US-China trade was to get silver from Carson City (mining was done by the American company) transport it to the US and mint silver coins. These coins had been bought by the American and foreign merchants trading with China. Now the mint was closed but a need in coinage remained. Mexican government helped the mining company to get out of the bankruptcy by buying a big part of its shares at a very low price. The mint was established in Carson city and from now on a part of the minted species had been transported to San Francisco to be bought by the merchant ships making stop there before sailing further to the Asian markets. Part of the coins was sold across the border to the American merchants and part was used on a domestic market: of course, the paper money had been pushed down the peoples throats but gold and silver remained money of preference and most of the Mexican peasants were not rich enough to operate in gold.

Unfortunately (for him), President Lerdo de Tejada did not have too much time to reap the benefits of what turned to be an interesting financial schema. The same year he was ousted by a coup of another Mexican liberal (“liberal” was a party affiliation, not some certain set of the principles), general Porfirio Diaz over the unconstitutional attempt to get re-elected. There was a short civil war between porfiristas and lerdistas culminated
in the Battle of Tecoac in which both sides came close to winning but Diaz got the reinforcements (the fighting did not end after this battle but the strategic winner was obvious). Tejada had no choice but to surrender the presidency and Díaz entered Puebla in November. As a result of the plan's victory Supreme Court President José María Iglesias was appointed interim president until new elections could be held in Mexico City. As the only candidate, General Porfirio Díaz assumed the presidency on 12 May 1877. Being an intelligent person he amended the constitutional re-election clause by adding "Except after a period of four years". His 1st presidency was 1877-1880 and the 2nd started, according to the amendment, in 1884. Well, it lasted for much longer than 4 years…

Spain. To his credit, King Amadeo I of Spain had enough nerve to remain on the throne for the whole 3 years. His reign started with the assassination of General Juan Prim, his chief supporter. Amadeo then had to deal with difficult situations, with unstable Spanish politics, republican conspiracies, Carlist uprisings, separatism in Cuba, interparty disputes, fugitive governments and assassination attempts. Amadeo could count on the support of only the Progressive Party. The progressives divided into monarchists and constitutionalists, which worsened the country's instability, and in 1872 a violent outburst of interparty conflicts hit a peak.

Actually, designation of the Spanish parties seems to be more complicated. The extreme royalists ended up being Carlists. Others defended a nation based on the Cortes and the King. These subsequently became known as moderate or doctrinarian liberals (between 1834 and 1875), and then as conservatives (1876-1923). Finally, a small but highly active group supported the idea of national sovereignty based exclusively on the Spanish people. A more moderate version of the French Jacobeans, these went down in history first as exaltados or extreme radicals (1820-1823), then as progressives (1823-1869), and finally as constitutionalists (1870-1880) and fusionist liberals (1881-1923). (https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/espana/historyandculture/history/Paginas/index.aspx#america)

There was a Carlist uprising in the Basque and Catalan regions, and republican uprisings later occurred in cities across the country. The artillery corps of the army went on strike [5] , and the government instructed Amadeo to discipline them. Then there was an assassination attempt: he was repeatedly shot at in Vía Avenal. The royal carriage was struck by several revolver and rifle bullets. The horses were wounded, but its occupants escaped unhurt. [6] Eventually Amadeo gave up, officially declared that the Spanish people are ungovernable and abdicated.

Between February 1873 and 29 December 1874 Spain was a Republic. It was proclaimed 11 February 1873 by the National Assembly by 258 votes to 32 against. This republic advocated new theories that shaped the immediate future: federalism, socialism and cantonalism. Within the very short period of its existence the republic had 4 presidents Estanislao Figueras, Francisco Pi y Margall, Nicolás Salmerón and Emilio Castelar. In parallel there were ongoing Third Carlist War, Ten Years War (uprising in Cuba) and Cantonal Rebellion (by the "intransigent" federal Republicans, who wanted to establish immediately the Federal Republic from the bottom-up without waiting for the Constituent Cortes to draft and approve the new Federal Constitution). Finally, on 29 December 1874 in Sagunto, General Arsenio Martínez Campos came out in favor of the restoration to the throne of the Bourbon monarchy in the personage of Don Alfonso de Borbón, son of Isabel II. The government of Sagasta (who was a president since 3 September) did not oppose this announcement, permitting the restoration of the monarchy.
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The new king, Alfonso XII, started well: he defeated the Carlists and achieved stability based on the existence of two political formations that represented the majority of the electorate: the Conservative Party led by Cánovas, supported by the court and latifundista aristocracy, landowners and people of independent means, and Sagasta's Liberal Party, whose members included people from the professional and middle classes, as well as merchants and industrialists. The Constitution of 1876 guaranteed that liberal and conservative prime ministers would succeed each other ending thus the troubles.

Sweden.
During the period 1850-1890 Sweden witnessed a veritable explosion in its export sector, with agricultural crops, wood and steel being the three dominating categories. Important institutional changes in this period included the abolishment of most tariffs and other barriers to free trade in the 1850s and the introduction of the gold standard in 1873, linking the Swedish krona at a fixed parity to gold. These institutional changes helped the expansion of free trade. During this period Sweden's investment quota (investments/GDP) went from 5% to 10%, called take off. During this period modern economic growth, with yearly GDP growth of around 2% made its advent in Sweden. Large infrastructural investments were made during this period, mainly in the expanding rail road network, which was financed in part by the government and in part by private enterprises.

Denmark. In 1870s Denmark was doing quite well. Being a predominantly agricultural country it was steadily shifting from grain exports to exports of animal products, mainly butter and bacon. Proposals to impose tariffs on grain, and later on cattle and butter, were turned down by Danish farmers. The majority seems to have realized the advantages accruing from the free imports of cheap animal feed during the ongoing process of transition from vegetable to animal production, at a time when the prices of animal products did not decline as much as grain prices. The dominant middle-sized farm was inefficient for wheat but had its comparative advantage in intensive animal farming with the given technology. The newly invented steam-driven continuous cream separator skimmed more cream from a kilo of milk than conventional methods and had the further advantage of allowing transported milk brought together from a number of suppliers to be skimmed. The Danish dairy industry captured increasing percentage of the rapidly expanding British butter-import market, establishing a reputation for consistent quality that was reflected in high prices. Furthermore, the cooperatives played an active role in persuading the dairy farmers to expand production from summer to year-round dairying. The costs of intensive feeding during the wintertime were more than made up for by a winter price premium.
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There was, of course, an additional factor contributing to Denmark’s well-being and general strategic importance: Kiel Canal was finally finished.

Greece.
Since 1863 Greece had as its king George I of the Danish Glücksburg family.
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The realities of politics remained much as before, with numerous elections and even more frequent changes of administration as politicians formed short-lived coalitions, jockeying for power in the disproportionately large parliament. In 1875 a decisive step was taken toward political modernization when King George acknowledged that he would entrust the government to the political leader that demonstrated the confidence of a majority of the deputies in parliament. During the last quarter of the 19th century the kaleidoscopic coalitions of earlier years gave way to a two-party system in which power alternated between two men: Kharílaos Trikoúpis and Theódoros Dhiliyiánnis. Trikoúpis represented the modernizing, Westernizing trend in politics, and Dhiliyiánnis was a political boss in the traditional mold with no real program other than overturning the reforms of his archrival. Believing the modernization of the political system and economic development to be the essential preconditions of territorial expansion, Trikoúpis struggled to establish Greece’s credit in international markets and encouraged the country to industrialize. He also promoted such infrastructural projects as road building, railway construction, and building of the Corinth Canal.
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Such measures, however, in addition to Trikoúpis’s parallel efforts to modernize the country’s armed forces, required funding, and the increased taxation they entailed proved an easy target for a populist demagogue such as Dhiliyiánnis. Dhiliyiánnis became increasingly popular by advocating an aggressive policy toward the Ottoman Empire.

Italy.
From its beginning, the Italian Nationalist Movement had dreamed about Italy joining the World Powers. Not that there were any practical foundations for such a dream but why not? In the North, extensive industrialization and the building of a modern infrastructure was well underway, the Alpine railway lines were either completed or under construction to connect Italy to the French, German and Austrian rail systems and two south-going coastal lines were also completed.
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Northern Italian agriculture was modernized, as well, bringing larger profits, underpinned by powerful co-operatives. Of course, the South did not experience the same kind of development in any of the above-mentioned areas (actually, situation in the agriculture was steadily deterriorating) but who cared? It was a part of the united Italy and this was pretty much the only purpose of its existence. Italian PM, Agostino Depretis, was running administration that was despotic and corrupt even by the Italian standards and, being a true liberal, managed to control the South by banning public meetings, placing "dangerous" individuals in internal exile on remote penal islands across Italy and adopting militarist policies. His political idea called Trasformismo (transformism) in theory meant that a cabinet is going to be formed by the moderate capable politicians from a non-partisan perspective. In practice pressured districts to vote for his candidates if they wished to gain favourable concessions from Depretis when in power. So everything was under control and the only thing missing to propel Italy into the rank of a Great Power was an absence of the colonies. The united Italy must be like the Roman Empire, at least as far as the newly-born the Italian imperialists were concerned.
Italy first attempted to gain colonies by entering a variety of failed negotiations with other world powers to make colonial concessions. Another approach by Italy was to investigate uncolonized, undeveloped lands by sending missionaries to them. The most promising and realistic lands for colonization were parts of Africa. In 1870 the Bay of Assab on the Red Sea coast was purchased from the local Sultan by the Rubattino shipping company acting on the behalf of the Italian government thus making it the first Italian colony. Though Tunisia would have been a preferable target because of its close proximity to Italy, the threat of reaction by the French made the attempt too dangerous to pursue and a small piece of a relatively worthless land squeezed between the French-controlled territories looked as a secure start of a planned grandiose colonial adventure.


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[1] End of the sentence: “… he wants Milan and so do I.” 😂
[2] In OTL the bill was pushed through with the following annexation of the Hawaii.
[3] Well, there were, of course, Indians, but they do not count.
[4] In OTL Alaska was sold for $7,200,000 and it was a remote waste land. Here there are territories bordering the US, allowing more access to the Pacific, and providing some opportunities for timber industry and agriculture. Well, of course, a big part of the purchased territory was a desert but at least it was not a frozen one.
[5] I wonder what exactly this means.
[6] This is easy: judging by the description, there were numerous assassins to be so there must be a crowd of the onlookers. And this means that they were pestering the assassins with the advices on how to aim properly and sarcastic remarks about their obvious ineptitude. In situation like that, unless one has the nerves of steel, it is almost impossible to hit a target.
 
Dhiliyiánnis became increasingly popular by advocating an aggressive policy toward the Ottoman Empire.

Are we going to see Greco-Turkish war of 1897?

In 1870 the Bay of Assab on the Red Sea coast was purchased from the local Sultan by the Rubattino shipping company acting on the behalf of the Italian government thus making it the first Italian colony. Though Tunisia would have been a preferable target because of its close proximity to Italy, the threat of reaction by the French made the attempt too dangerous to pursue and a small piece of a relatively worthless land squeezed between the French-controlled territories looked as a secure start of a planned grandiose colonial adventure.

Well they aren't only power seeking to expand in the region Egypt had certain aspirations as well which resulted in Ethiopian-Egyptian war and Egyptian loss. Historically even though Ethiopia won it was forced to compromise on its wish for the seaport under British pressure and later on (shortly after ratification of peace treaty) British more or less sold Ethiopian gains to Italy.

Now I'm quite sure that war between Egypt and Ethiopia will happen as Egyptian territorial ambitions are the same and result should probably be the same, though I do wonder how the treaty will end without the British and with France and Russia indirectly backing opposing side's.

Not to mention Italy waiting on sidelines.
 
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Are we going to see Greco-Turkish war of 1897?

I’m still thinking about it. Anyway, it is still two decades away so I have plenty of time to figure out if it does or does not happen and the OE is presumably much stronger in an absence of the war of 1877-78 and its consequences.
Well they aren't only power seeking to expand in the region Egypt had certain aspirations as well which resulted in Ethiopian-Egyptian war and Egyptian loss. Historically even though Ethiopia won it was forced to compromise on its wish for the seaport under British pressure and later on (shortly after ratification of peace treaty) British more or less sold Ethiopian gains to Italy.

This was in OTL but ITTL we are already past that time (1874-76) and Britain is not dominating the region.
Now I'm quite sure that war between Egypt and Ethiopia will happen as Egyptian territorial ambitions are the same and result should probably be the same, though I do wonder how the treaty will end without the British and with France and Russia indirectly backing opposing side's.
In OTL Khediv’s aspirations had been more than a little bit too ambitious to be realistic and IMO can be easily avoided with a skillful French diplomacy: France is friendly to both Egypt and Ethiopia (even builds railroad into it) and, basically the same goes for Russia. Britain simply does not have a foothold anywhere close.

Avoidance of that war probably leaves Ismail in place, removes Orabi Revolt, direct occupation of Egypt, etc. Or Ismail can be quietly replaced before he gets into this military adventure. Not because Ethiopia is so precious to France but because he is deemed unmanageable.

Not to mention Italy waiting on sidelines.
Italy will probably end up as a mini-aggressor with the overblown ambitions and a bloody nose.
 
Italy will probably end up as a mini-aggressor with the overblown ambitions and a bloody nose.
So basically what happened in OTL anyway? Lmao

But seriously, it would be pretty funny if the Italians manage to occupy most of Eritrea and try to invade Ethiopia... But end up loosing even harder and just lose their colony in the region, especially with no Britain to back them up.
 
So basically what happened in OTL anyway? Lmao

OTL, in a military aspect, was quite logical. The technological gap was not critical, the numbers were severely against the Italians, the logistics was pretty much equally lousy on both sides. ITTL Ethiopia may get considerably more foreign aid with the weapons and training because there are bigger French and Russian interests.
But seriously, it would be pretty funny if the Italians manage to occupy most of Eritrea and try to invade Ethiopia... But end up loosing even harder and just lose their colony in the region, especially with no Britain to back them up.
Yes. The question is if they’ll try later in Libya. Well, it is probably more or less realistic to assume that they’ll preserve some kind of a small base in Eritrea as a part of the “colonialist solidarity” and because nobody else wants it. 😉

Honestly, with the enormous problems at home and a general weakness in pretty much all important areas, the idea of the Italian imperialism was rather idiotic to start with so getting a bloody nose couple times may (or may not) bring their politicians back to Earth.
 
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