275. You always need to be … (#2)
“The courage of a fool causes bold behavior, but has only an external resemblance to real courage. Mad courage (Fool's courage) is as harmful as mad fear.”
“"A fool who knows the truth is able to see his strengths, a smart one his weaknesses."
“There is no worse job than leading the fools, Meaninglessly brave - all the more so.”
“You need to know the price of money: the wasteful do not know it, and the stingy even less.”
“Along with earth, water, air and fire, money is the fifth element that a person most often has to reckon with.”
“There are things more important than money, but you can't buy these things without money.”
1872. The Big Bluff
China
By 1872 China, at least for a while, was free of the rebellions: the last one, of the Chinese Muslims on the western borders, was finally crushed by the general Zuo Zongtang after few years of fighting campaign involving a very difficult logistics (and a wholesale slaughter of the rebellious population).
Now, Zuo Zongtang enfeoffed as a
first class count, had been in charge of the Chinese military forces of the North. In his disposal was an army of unknown size 15-20,000 of which had been troops armed with the modern European weapons (mostly bought in Britain) and reasonably well trained. The rest was an unknown number of the troops belonging to the old-style “banners” armed with pretty much everything from the occasional modern rifles and all the way back to the matchlocks and bows. Speculatively, the total size of his army was anywhere in the range of 40 - 100,000.
Military forces of the Central China were under command of another first class count [1] , general Li Hongzang. He had even bigger (reasonably) modern army, controlled the Northern fleet, arsenals in the Central China and, understandably, was quite influential in the army.
Both these generals and his “clans” were
Chinese, which was an important factor in the following events.
The government itself was in the hands of the Empress Dowager Cixi (after co-Empress Dowager Ci'an conveniently died).
The Empress and most of her government were Manchu. She supported technological and
military reforms and the Self-Strengthening Movement which emphasized the adoption of Western firearms, machines, scientific knowledge and training of technical and diplomatic personnel through the establishment of a diplomatic office and a college. All this should be achieved
without changing the system. The dockyards and arsenals had been founded. Few Chinese western-style small ships (corvette being the biggest one) had been built at the Fuzhou Arsenal and an effort had been made to start the local production of the modern rifles.
All these military industries were heavily subsidized by the government while being completely under control of the regional strongmen without any mutual coordination. While formally all they were subordinated to the imperial government, they were pretty much independent in everything including appointment of the officers which then had been just rubber-stumped by Beijing. As for the foreign advisors, as was commented by the US Ambassador in China in 1872, “…
the foreigners employed in instructing troops in the art of war are subject to provincial authority and control. They are little better in point of rank and position than 'drill-sergeants,' a position which, if not degrading, cannot be considered honorable… After he [Charles Gordon] returned to England, the subsequent Chinese-hired British trainers sent by the British consulate were incompetent and neglected their duties.”
Then, an idea of “
how to turn a losing enterprise into profitable without making any changes” rarely, if ever, worked anywhere and it did not work in this case as well. The ships were at least twice as costly as comparable vessels available for purchase in Britain, rifles were not only more costly than, but also far inferior to, the imported arms.
Of course, due to the fact that
the fools do not learn on other’s mistakes and general Chinese’s ignorance of a history, except of their own, a blind introduction of the foreign methods required the grown numbers of the foreigners and those in charge had been too incompetent to make sound judgements regarding qualifications of those they had been hiring and the quality and true cost of the materials and equipment they were buying [2]. The results were predictable they were spending much more money than they had to both in producing and purchasing and, when they were producing, they were producing low quality stuff.
In 1870, a number of foreigners were killed during
riots in Tianjin. This incident soured China's relatively stable relations with the Western powers and while all types of the westernization actions continued under control of Li Hongzhang the “patriotic” anti-western sentiments had been strengthening among the
educated society and upper classes . By 1872 there were quite loud talks about “revenge” and returning the lands lost in the previous decades.
Russian refusal to deliver the rebels fleeing to the Russian territory triggered a huge wave of a patriotic enthusiasm among the educated classes. Both the government and the military leaders found themselves somewhat the hostages of the situation and while Li Hongzhang considered it mostly within the lines of getting more funds for the central region he was controlling, Zuo Zongtang, who was controlling the Northern China, found himself in a position that required him to be more bellicose, which he did making some rather fancy statements regarding his ability to crush the Northern neighbor and capture Moscow. He even ordered himself a very expensive coffin to underscore his willingness to die fighting [3].
To prepare for a possible war Qing government bought in Europe 52,000 rifles (including 20,000 modern) and 150 guns.
Russia.
Russian government had to think about a possible war with China for the first time. The generals of the Russian Empire had no doubt that, all other things being equal, their regular troops were stronger than the Chinese ones. But the total length of the land border of the two continental empires reached a record seven thousand versts, and throughout their duration the logistics of any operation against China frankly frightened with its complexity. Especially taking into an account the Chinese stubbornness and numbers.
On a positive side, the western part of the border had been reliably secured by a combination of the geography (more than 300 versts of the mountains and deserts before getting anywhere) and the Dzungarian Cossack host of 40-50,000 immediately available high quality troops (who seriously disliked the Chinese) strengthened by the Russian garrisons and a relatively easy access by the troops from Turkestan by the Central Asia railroad.
However, the Eastern part of the border was much more problematic even if by that time, the Russians already had a dozen iron steamers on the Amur, while the Qing Empire had only medieval rowing boats on the rivers of Manchuria. By the assessment of the General Staff to provide a necessary pressure upon China Russia would need to have in that area at least 2 - 3 corps with the corresponding supporting means and a prevailing point of view was that, if the war starts, its completion can be guaranteed only by the capture of Beijing.
While AIII did not have any intention to march his troops on Peking, the fact remained that all very long border of the Eastern Siberia had been protected only by 6 cavalry regiments and 12 infantry battalions with a minimal artillery. Which was fine against what Manchu government routinely had on its side of a border: 10 - 15,000 of the Mongolian cavalry with the bows and matchlocks (and a questionable loyalty to the Qing regime) and few thousands troops from the Green Banner which were not, yet, modernized. So far, ability of the Qing government to transfer the troops from Central China or the Western borders through the steppes and deserts of Mongolia was not considered as a high probability but it would become a reality if the Qing decides to go to a war.
The Ministry of War had been planning transporting to the Pacific coast 25,000 troops with 100 guns with the intention to land them on the coast of the Yellow Sea for the future march on Peking.
But there was discouraging reality:
- Population of Vladivostok amounted only to 9,000 out of which 4,000 were Chinese and Koreans.
- Garrison of Vladivostok consisted of two battalions (1,500).
- Border 2,000 versts long had been covered by 11,000 troops with 32 guns. Out of these numbers only have of the troops had been regular and the rest were recently created units of the Amur and Ussury Cossacks and almost 3,000 non-combat troops performing various construction projects.
- To strengthen its naval presence on the Pacific (usually 3 - 5 cruisers) Russia had to send there a much more powerful squadron. This squadron included 2 newest armored cruisers, 3 cruisers, 8 clippers and the steamers carrying troops and the newest 6- and 9-inch guns.
- Vladivostok was only in process of being fortified and lacked necessary supplies but commander of the squadron relied upon the friendly relations with Japan (which was on the first stages of the ongoing dispute with China regarding possession of some islands).
- Then, there was a detestable but unavoidable question of the finances. Transportation by the ocean of at least 8,000 troops would require 890,000 rubles per month. Transfer of 25,000 with 100 guns would cost 3,500,000 per month. The general estimate of the whole war was in the range of 200-300 millions, optimistically.
- There was a report that China ordered in Britain 2 light modern cruisers and in Germany 2 ironclads.
- Russian consul in China reported that troops, food and new weapons are constantly transferred by the sailing ships and chartered English steamers from southern provinces of China to Beijing and Manchuria.
The obvious question was: for what? The proposals included annexation of Mongolia (but it was too poor to be of any practical use) or a part of Manchuria with a border by the Sungari River (with a questionable bonus of ending up with a couple millions of Manchu and Chinese and a resulting never-ending headache). But AIII did not have any plans for the further annexation at China’s expense and he was not a ruler to be dictated by his military or the ministers.
However, this did not mean that the challenge must be left without an answer because a show of weakness could encourage the Chinese to go on the offensive. The squadron arrived at Vladivostok and intensive construction of the fortifications started. Taking into an account that at least half of the people working on the construction were Chinese (including contractor himself), it was reasonable to assume that the news about these fortifications will reach the other side of a border and somewhat cool down the Chinese decision makers. A number of the Dzungarian regiments rode Eastward along the border making their presence conspicuous. With the Mongolian border not being quite clear, there was even a small encounter when a Dzungarian hundred occasionally bumped into few hundreds camping Manchurian banner troops and routed them. The losses were minimal, two wounded Dzungarian horses and 39 wounded and killed Manchu, but the news about the march had been communicated further dumping the enthusiasm on the Chinese side.
As far as the “popular attitudes” were involved, the whole thing did not generate too much of a popular attention not only in Russia in general but even in Vladivostok. A traveller who arrived with the squadron found that the locals do not expect any war (and as far as they could tell, neither did the Chinese in general) and consider everything as something invented in the capital. To his surprise, when he went further to China he found the same attitude among the Chinese: until the government says that there is a war, it is a peace and there is no need to get hostile.
China.
There were the serious considerations:
- The “German barbarians” were problematic. So far they were doing what they had been paid for but the Chinese cabinet was informed that they will not be participating in fighting against the Russian troops and, while they will be willing to fulfill their contract regarding the ironclads, the delivery time may be negatively impacted in the case of war unless the Chinese will be ready to pick them up in the German port and sail from it on their own risk.
- The top ranking “British barbarian”, when asked for an advice, recommended to burn Peking, move the imperial court to the South and to be prepared for a guerrilla war for the next five years.
- As far as the Dowager Empress was concerned, the war, regardless its outcome, will be a lose-lose situation for the dynasty and Manchurian rule in general: the only meaningful fighting forces were under command of the Chinese military clans so in the case of victory, they’ll become even more influential and in the case of a loss the government will be blamed.
To diffuse the situation Cixi called the Military Council and proposed that those advocating a war must compensate the imperial treasure all its cost including the possible indemnity. The Manchurian majority of the Council voted for this proposal because it was targeting Li Hongzhang, Zuo Zongtang and their military clans.
The government in Peking decided that it would be wise not to escalate the conflict all the way to a war and Li Hongzhang sided with it because he did not want a war to start with and already got everything he could out of the “national alarm” by getting from the government huge funds for strengthening army and fleet that he was controlling.
His troops were getting the new guns and rifles and
his Northern fleet will be receiving the new ships ordered in Britain and Germany.
For dealing with Zuo Zongtang the Empress used a bureaucratic trick. The bellicose commander incessantly calling for the war with Russia was invited to Peking and … kicked upstairs. He was made advisor to the throne and a head of the Ministry of War. In practical terms, he was moved away from the loyal troops and placed within territory of his main competitor, Li Hongzhang. The main proponent of the war was neutralized and the peace talks began. Basically, they were about pretty much nothing because neither side had any territorial pretenses so everything ended up with a declaration of a mutual friendship.
However, both sides started strengthening their border defenses and within a decade the number of troops on both sides of the Amur and Ussuri rivers doubled.
Going East.
In the mid-XIX the total population on the Russian Far East including Sakhalin was approximately 18,000. The border 2,000 km long required not only the guards but a population as well.
The Amur Cossack Host was formed in 1858 and in 1860 a document had been issued to regulate the land-ownership in the region. The new Cossacks had been settled along the border and got the big land grants. The officers, depending upon the rank, had been getting 200-400 hectares and the rank Cossacks - 30 hectares for every man in a family. As a result, by 1862 there were 67 Cossack settlements with a population 12,000 along the Amur and 23 settlements with 5,000 in Primorie.
In 1861 government issued regulations for the settlers in the region. A peasant family was getting 100 hectares (30 times more than an average family plot in the European Russia) for 20 years free of charge with a right to purchase it at any time at the price of 3 rubles per hectare. For 10 years they were free from military service and forever free from the head tax. Within the next decade more than 10,000 families moved into the area. However, the process was complicated due to the absence of a railroad connecting European Russia to the Far East (the regional railroads were not integrated and tended to connect the local industrial centers). As a result, the peasants had to travel across 5,000 versts on their own which was taking 1.5 - 2 years without any help from the government [4].
With the idiocy of this arrangement getting increasingly obvious, the government of AII started, as an alternative, transporting the settlers by the sea from Odessa (there was no Suez canal, yet) at the government’s expense. Well, the “expense” was expensive and it was expected to transport only few hundred families per year. Transportation by the Amur also was relatively expensive: trip from Baykal area to Khabarovsk was taking 10 days and cost 10 rubles for a grown up and 5 for a child. During the reign of AIII the settlers started getting various forms of state support and the numbers of settlers kept growing but they still were too low.
An issue of the railroad from European Russia to the Far East was anything but new. It was raised in 1850s but NI did not have money for it. When AII got another application he wrote that during the reign of his father the proposal was rejected as too expensive and he also rejects it. AIII wrote on one of the new proposals that this project is long overdue but got from his ministers a classic bureaucratic answer that while this construction is clearly necessary, it can be started now because the Russian finances do not allow such an expensive project.
Fortunately, something happened that overweighted all ministerial fears. A message came informing that China started construction of a railroad from Peking toward the Russian Far East. Ministry of the Foreign Affairs and Ministry of War recognized the danger and only Minister of Finances was against expenditure of 335,000,000 rubles. This time AIII put his feet down and ordered to start construction ASAP. To speed up the construction, Vannovsky offered to start construction from both ends simultaneously.
Strategic importance of this railroad became immediately clear in Europe. One of the German generals, Gustav Kramer, wrote: "
In political terms with the construction of the road, Russia will gain primacy in the Far East and will be able to defend its border throughout and pursue its political goals safely.”
The funny thing is that the Chinese RR never was built.
____________
[1] With the privilege of wearing a
double-eyed peacock feather in his hat. Charles Darwin ventured that the magnificent trains on male peacocks, which feature
ornamental eyespots called ocelli, evolved because of sexual selection. So probably
double eyespots implied that an awarded person is double sexy comparing to those awarded with a feather with a single eye and immeasurably more sexy than those without a feather. Of course, this is just a wild guess based upon an assumption that the Chinese viewed the issue along the same lines as Darwin did. Anyway, don’t you feel sorry for the poor plucked male peacocks? Could it be that the plucking was (further) affecting their singing abilities in a negative way?
[2] With a lesser arrogance they could learn a lot in the terms of how
not to do things from the history of Peter I.
[3] In OTL he was talking about the march on St-Petersburg during Kuldja Crisis of the 1880s and the same goes for the coffin.
[4] Which looks like a typical modus operandi of the Russian liberals: who cares about the annoying details when there is a Big Picture?
