No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

[alexmilman]

Honestly I expect Swedish victory will just worsen the problems in PL.

It does but in a wonderfully chaotic country more than one side may have its problems getting worse.

 

[von Adler]

When it comes to Elblag, when Swedish held it and a few other ports on East Prussia 1630-1635, they provided a bit above 980 000 thaler yearly in tolls only (land rent/taxes on what Sweden controlled in Prussia yieled another ~900 000 or so) - so it is a worthy prize, even if Elblag alone will not provide all that.

One also needs to remember that Sweden seized the Courlandish navy 1702 - including a 50 gun warship and around 40-50 merchantmen - this is also quite the prize. The Courlanders had a small colonial empire in the mid-1600s that they had mostly sold and abandonded by 1700 - Tobago was sold to the English 1683.

When it comes to Ukraine, its development at this time still suffer from the periodic Crimean Tatar and Nogai Horde slave raids - Ukraine 1703 is not the same as Ukraine 1803, which benefitted immensly from stability and security under Russian rule. The devlopment of Ukraine into the bread basket of Europe is a potential requiring investment - chiefly in security in this era - the Poles have been successful in western Ukraine, but eastern Ukraine still has a ton of work. The contemporaries surely understand the potential, but also the cost.

Sweden get something that will provide immediate profit. Russia get something that requires a lot of work and investment (in security, infrastructure and probably also moving people in there) before it can give profit.

 

[alexmilman]

When it comes to Elblag, when Swedish held it and a few other ports on East Prussia 1630-1635, they provided a bit above 980 000 thaler yearly in tolls only (land rent/taxes on what Sweden controlled in Prussia yieled another ~900 000 or so) - so it is a worthy prize, even if Elblag alone will not provide all that.

During the GNW Charles put Swedish troops to Elblag squeezing out the Prussians who were there (on a temporary basis) so making this permanent is realistic. Of course, Prussian Pilau is still controlling entry to the Vustula Lagoon.

One also needs to remember that Sweden seized the Courlandish navy 1702 - including a 50 gun warship and around 40-50 merchantmen - this is also quite the prize. The Courlanders had a small colonial empire in the mid-1600s that they had mostly sold and abandonded by 1700 - Tobago was sold to the English 1683.

When it comes to Ukraine, its development at this time still suffer from the periodic Crimean Tatar and Nogai Horde slave raids - Ukraine 1703 is not the same as Ukraine 1803, which benefitted immensly from stability and security under Russian rule. The devlopment of Ukraine into the bread basket of Europe is a potential requiring investment - chiefly in security in this era - the Poles have been successful in western Ukraine, but eastern Ukraine still has a ton of work. The contemporaries surely understand the potential, but also the cost.

Don’t overestimate “security” of the Western Ukraine at this specific time: “2nd Khmelnitschina” is going on and in OTL it was suppressed with Peter’s help because Sandomierz’ Confederacy was his ally. In the XVIII there will be 3 more uprisings prior to the partitions and the regular conflicts between the Polish nobility and Ukrainian peasantry/Cossacks had been notoriously bloody and destructive.

The problem is not going away automatically after Peter gets part of the area even if all Poles simply leaving (being paid off): something has to be done about now free serfs and the Cossacks.

Sweden get something that will provide immediate profit. Russia get something that requires a lot of work and investment (in security, infrastructure and probably also moving people in there) before it can give profit.

Exactly.

 

[X Oristos]

When it comes to Elblag, when Swedish held it and a few other ports on East Prussia 1630-1635, they provided a bit above 980 000 thaler yearly in tolls only (land rent/taxes on what Sweden controlled in Prussia yieled another ~900 000 or so) - so it is a worthy prize, even if Elblag alone will not provide all that.

Elbing is much less valuable than Danzig but it remains a major and profitable port. Here is a comparison between the traffic in Danzig and Elbing until the mid 17th century

There is one possibility to achieve some synergy between Sweden proper and in particular Scania (sorry Jurgen ) and Elbing. It seems that one of the major imported products in Poland via Elbing and Danzig was herring. Sweden may have gained a major market to export its herring. Overall, it seems to have the potential to be a very valuable swedish possession. Even so, it seems that a swedish Elbing might sow some seeds of discontent in Berlin. However, Elbing on its own it is not worth clashing with Sweden.

@alexmilman if I get it right Peter got Kijowskie and Braclawskie of the following map : https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Polish-Lithuanian_Commonwealth_in_1772.PNG

Podolskie remains polish right ?

It seems to me that Braclaw would be an excellent logistics base to operate across the Bug down to OTL Nikolayev. So far Peter gained two routes to operate against Crimea. The Dnieper route has the advantage that begins at Smolensk in russian heartland, but the disadvantage of the Rapids where portage is needed. The Southern Bug route doesn't start at a developed region but it is straightforward down to the Black Sea. Overall, two routes to operate against the Perekop Isthmus and the littoral ottoman fortresses and a third one (Azov) to operate against Kerch.

Lastly, this war has been PERFECT for the development of the Russian Army. It was of rather low intensity with rather few casualties. Experience has been gained but not at the detriment of having whole regiments destroyed as in OTL. Thus, the lessons learned are easier to diffuse over large segments of the army. The additional swedish instructors will only enhance the army's effectiveness.

 

[alexmilman]

Elbing is much less valuable than Danzig but it remains a major and profitable port. Here is a comparison between the traffic in Danzig and Elbing until the mid 17th century
View attachment 705093

There is one possibility to achieve some synergy between Sweden proper and in particular Scania (sorry Jurgen ) and Elbing. It seems that one of the major imported products in Poland via Elbing and Danzig was herring. Sweden may have gained a major market to export its herring. Overall, it seems to have the potential to be a very valuable swedish possession. Even so, it seems that a swedish Elbing might sow some seeds of discontent in Berlin. However, Elbing on its own it is not worth clashing with Sweden.

Very interesting data. Of course, comparing to Danzig Elblag/Elbing is a small fish but it has a potential for at least some growth and it has two advantages: (a) it prevents Prussia from getting too “creative” regarding Danzig (August permitted Prussian garrison in Elblag) and (b) it annoys only Prussia, which not such a big deal (and, anyway, Prussia controls naval access to it).

@alexmilman if I get it right Peter got Kijowskie and Braclawskie of the following map : https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Polish-Lithuanian_Commonwealth_in_1772.PNG

Podolskie remains polish right ?

Right. These two voyevodhips are the area of the ongoing anti-Polish upraising so a noticeable part of the local Polish nobility either fled or being killed (in this TL it is even bloodier and more successful than in OTL) which is slightly simplifies both negotiations with the PLC and post-acquisition resolution of the situation which remains quite complicated (I’m planning to get into some details).

It seems to me that Braclaw would be an excellent logistics base to operate across the Bug down to OTL Nikolayev. So far Peter gained two routes to operate against Crimea. The Dnieper route has the advantage that begins at Smolensk in russian heartland, but the disadvantage of the Rapids where portage is needed. The Southern Bug route doesn't start at a developed region but it is straightforward down to the Black Sea. Overall, two routes to operate against the Perekop Isthmus and the littoral ottoman fortresses and a third one (Azov) to operate against Kerch.

Everything looks nice on the map and you are quite right about strategic potential but don’t forget about potential pain in the ass, Zaporizhian Sich. Formally, it in a some way should be subordinated to the Hetman and by extension to the Tsar but in a reality it is almost uncontrollable and its loyalties at any specific point are anybody’s guess. And it sits just across the way to the Crimea stretching all the way to Azov.
Also it provides a potential support base for the traditional tendency of the Hetmans (who are formally Hetmans of the Zaporozhian Host) to make themselves as independent as possible, which of course does not sit well with Peter. So he is facing a choice between dealing with all these problems before a major war with the Ottomans or dealing with the Ottomans first and then address the Cossacks issue.

Lastly, this war has been PERFECT for the development of the Russian Army. It was of rather low intensity with rather few casualties. Experience has been gained but not at the detriment of having whole regiments destroyed as in OTL. Thus, the lessons learned are easier to diffuse over large segments of the army. The additional swedish instructors will only enhance the army's effectiveness.

As you may notice, the “Sheremetev-Weide reform” is putting Russian army tactically almost a century ahead not only of the OTL Russia but of the whole Europe: the “battalion columns from the center” I described are shamelessly stolen (with tiny modifications) from the Napoleonic military organization and their practical deployment from the Russian army of the 1810s. But so far nobody objected and I’m getting away with it.

Well, in this TL Sheremetev is playing “the cat that walked through walls”: he (as that little cat) simply does not know that something can not be done and is doing it because it looks as a good idea.

 

[X Oristos]

Everything looks nice on the map and you are quite right about strategic potential but don’t forget about potential pain in the ass, Zaporizhian Sich. Formally, it in a some way should be subordinated to the Hetman and by extension to the Tsar but in a reality it is almost uncontrollable and its loyalties at any specific point are anybody’s guess. And it sits just across the way to the Crimea stretching all the way to Azov.
Also it provides a potential support base for the traditional tendency of the Hetmans (who are formally Hetmans of the Zaporozhian Host) to make themselves as independent as possible, which of course does not sit well with Peter. So he is facing a choice between dealing with all these problems before a major war with the Ottomans or dealing with the Ottomans first and then address the Cossacks issue.

I know next to nothing about the Cossacks. But to offer my two cents, if resuming war with the Ottomans is an idee fixe for Peter, then he might postpone dealing with the issue after the war.

There might be strategies that could help in the short and medium term. For example, he can try to push the Cossacks of spending their martial vigor raiding the Black Sea littoral, even utilizing their boats as they did in the 17th century. Or promise them support and the lush pastures of Kuban if a number of them moves to attack the Nogais.

I assume his goal is the destruction of the Tatars. If he achieves that goal while distracting the Cossacks, then it would be game over. A post-war situation with russian garrisons in both ukraine and the ottoman fortresses of the south, leaves the Cossacks surrounded. Then it would be the classic tsar policy of divide and conquer in submitting the Cossacks. At that point, it will be a headache for sure, but strategically the threat of an indepedent Hetmanate will be less than minimal.

As you may notice, the “Sheremetev-Weide reform” is putting Russian army tactically almost a century ahead not only of the OTL Russia but of the whole Europe: the “battalion columns from the center” I described are shamelessly stolen (with tiny modifications) from the Napoleonic military organization and their practical deployment from the Russian army of the 1810s. But so far nobody objected and I’m getting away with it.

Well, in this TL Sheremetev is playing “the cat that walked through walls”: he (as that little cat) simply does not know that something can not be done and is doing it because it looks as a good idea.

I did notice it but I thought it meant something different than napoleonic columns !

Assault columns with bayonets will simply go through the Jannisaries as hot knife through butter.

Alex you might find interesting this dissertation on the 18th century Ottoman Army https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.632.9771&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

[alexmilman]

18. Peace of Warsaw

With the framework for the peace conference [1] being set and both monarchs are traveling to Warsaw where it should happen, here is a short interlude explaining who is assigned as the top Russian “negotiator” [2].

***************************************************
Return of Vasily Golitsyn
In the summer of 1702 a small village of Kevrola (near Archangelsk) saw the unusual visitor, lieutenant of the Preobrazensky Regiment, Paul Yaguzhinsky, arrived with a personal mission from Tsar Peter [3]. On a painting he is shown at the top of his career.

Besides the usual escort, he brought with him a decently looking carriage, something that none of the locals ever saw in their lives. Yaguzhinsky stopped at the modest house in which exiled Prince Vasily Golitsyn lived with his family.

Before choosing a wrong side in Miloslavsky vs. Naryshkin confrontation, Prince Golytsin was, among many other things, the top Russian diplomat and during the regency of Sophia practically the PM (Keeper of the Great Seal). His foreign policy was distinguished by the Treaty of Nerchinsk (1689), which set the Russo-Chinese border north of the Amur River, and by the Eternal Peace Treaty of 1686 with Poland, whereby Russia at last definitively recovered Kiev. His foreign policy also included strengthening of the Russian-Swedish relations (a temporary moratorium on the Russian claims fir the Baltic coast) and general expansion of the diplomatic links to the European courts.
He was the best educated (aristocrat) in Russia, built quite “European” (by the Russian standards of the time) palace in Moscow (below photo of 1926)

and had extensive plans regarding general modernization and reorganization of the Tsardom. During the reign of Feodor III he was a driving force behind abolishment of the “mestnichestvo”. He was advocating education of the young Russian nobles abroad, abolishment of the serfdom [4], establishment of the permanent Russian embassies at the European courts and freedom of religion [5].
Unfortunately, he was not a very good general and a failure of his campaigns against Crimea seriously undermined credibility of Sophia’s regime. In 1689 he was deprived of his boyar position (but not of his princely title), his property confiscated and he, with his family was sent into exile in Archangelsk area.

Golitsyn did not expect anything good from Peter’s representative but was pleasantly surprised when he politely presented a letter in which Peter was inviting him to Moscow. His family will follow (part of the arriving convoy will see that the travel arrangements are going to be done fast and with an appropriate comfort).

Immediately after arrival to Moscow, he was ushered in Tsar’s presence and Peter got straight to the point. He needs services of an experienced diplomat of Golitsyn’s caliber [6] so, if Prince Vasily is ready to assume the responsibility, Peter is willing to forget the past. His estates are going to be returned or compensated by the new grants. His Moscow palace will be given back to him with most of its furnishings [7] and he is going to be provided with the necessary funds to establish himself as befitting to the head of the Russian diplomatic service. There are going to be some additional assignments related to the education of the Russian nobles but the first things first.

There was no need in “or else…”, one would be insane not to take the offer.


*******************************

Back to Warsaw

By the time Peter and Charles arrived to Warsaw, the Polish delegation was ready. It was headed by Stanisław Leszczyński, voyevida of Poznan, a young man of blameless antecedents, respectable talents, but certainly without sufficient force of character or political influence. And with no money. An additional item in his favor was that he sided with the Sapiehas when they sided with Charles against August. The only bad thing was his tendency to make the long speeches (in Latin, to be sure) [8]. In other words, Cardinal Radziewsky made the choice as perfect as it goes.

Separate Swedish-Saxon talks did not take long: representative of Azgust produced a letter with the formal apologies and, after it was fiund satisfactory, presented carte blanche with August’s signature on it, Piper ordered to fill it with the Swedish conditions. Done.

The Polish part took longer time just because of a longer list.
Sweden is getting:
- Courland free of the vassal obligations. The Duke transfers his title to the King of Sweden for the one time compensation of 1,000,000 rigsdalers (paid by the PLC).
- City of Elblag.

Russia is getting:
- Polish Livonia
- Part of the Voyevodship of Polock with the border by Dvina and town of Witebsk (but not Voyevodship).
- Voyevodships of Kiev and Braclaw with an obligation to stop slaughter. Surviving Polish nobility gets an option of either to become subjects of Russia (in which case their personal security and preservation of the estates will be guaranteed by the Russian administration [9] or to formally cede their property (which may or may not be by that time seized and/or destroyed by the rebels) to the Russian government and emigrate, receiving a monetary compensation for which Russia allocates a fund of 500,000 rubles. Special Polish-Russian commission is to be promptly created and established in Zhitomir (garrisoned by the Russian troops) to process the claims, make the assessments and to see for a safe evacuation of those willing to emigrate [10]. The assigned money are going to be kept in Zhitomir for immediate distribution [11]. A complete freedom of religion is promised for those who choses to stay, as well as security of the not-noble targets of the rebels’ activities (Uniates, Catholics and Jews), all of which also can be guaranteed a safe departure, if they want, but without any compensation.

Special provisions:
In a separate treaty Sweden and Russia are agreeing to the swap of the Polish Livonia for Ingria with the special provisions regarding a favorable trade regimes in both areas (especially for the peasants selling and buying the locally produced goods across the border) . Russia is paying Sweden 100,000 rigsdalers as one-time compensation for the revenues lost in Ingria. Swedish citizens of Nien and Noteburg may remain there as the Swedish subjects with the consular representation and the same rights as population of the German Settlement near Moscow or they can become the Russian subjects. In both cases their property and religious freedom arecguaranteed. The Russian merchants and tradesmen will be permitted to settle and conduct their business outside Riga on similar conditions [12].

Secret Items:
1. August, both as the King of the PLC and as the Elector of Saxony, makes an obligation of not acting against Sweden and Russia and they are making an obligation not to allow any European state to infringe upon PLC’s territorial integrity [13].
2. Russia and Sweden are going to support the Saxon succession to the PLC throne by all means necessary. [14]

All treaties related to the “Peace of Warsaw” are being signed in the January of 1704.

_______________
[1] Of course, it was clearly understood by everybody involved that on this “conference” one side is going to do most of the talking and another is not expected to say much besides “zgadzam się” (agree), “Dziękuję” (thank you) and “Gdzie podpisać?” (where should I sign?) but, well, they are not supposed to be completely silent so “conference” was an appropriate term and much more suitable diplomatically than straightforward “ultimatum”. Nobody would be able to discredit its results in a future by claiming that the Polish side was not allowed to have its say.
[2] The monarchs are going to sign a final document but it would be inappropriate for them to participate in the routine discussions of the minutiae details related to what, where, how much, etc.
[3] To give an idea what this meant, a sergeant of this regiment sent personally by Peter would have a right to put a governor of the province to prison, make fieldmarshal’s life miserable and to do pretty much whatever he wanted. Even Menshikov with all his influence would refuse to interfere. So lieutenant on such a mission would be considered by everybody along the route as super-puper-VIP on the steroids.
[4], [5] You can figure out how many friends did he get by these two items.
[6] By that time his ambassadors proved to be of a rather mediocre value (and kept intriguing against each other) and Posolsky Prikaz clearly suffered from an absence of the competent leadership.
[7] Process of confiscation was accompanied by a thorough bureaucratic work: each item was duly recorded and most of them stored somewhere.
[8] Which was not such a big problem because (a) he would not be allowed to talk to Charles and Peter directly, (b) he would not be allowed to talk much and (c) don’t known about Piper but Vasily Golitsyn spoke fluent Latin so, in case Stanislaw would be allowed to get long-winded, the other side is going to know what he is blabbing about (not that this would really matter, but just out of a pure curiosity).
[9] But not Hetmanate, which is critically important for Peter’s planned policy in the region.
[10] For which more Russian troops are going to be placed in the area thus cutting potential ambitions of the Hetmanate leadership.
[11] Both to speed up the process and not to let the PLC “government” and especially August to get anywhere close to the cash.
[12] Only the guild members had been permitted to conduct business in Riga and even the Russian Emperors could do nothing about it all the way to the early XIX.
[13] Big to Prussia.
[14] Equally big to France, Austria and everybody else who may have doubts regarding identity of the regional bosses.

 

[alexmilman]

18. Peace of Warsaw (continuation)

“If by whatever reason you decided that Al Bundy is going to commit this noble action, you definitely did not watch closely the previous five seasons” Married with Children​

If by reviewing the conditions of peace you got an impression that in this TL Peter is some kind of a gentle, fairly-minded person with the progressive ideas regarding social justice, personal freedom or any other modern notions you are thoroughly mistaken. The same goes for his ideas regarding a fair compensation and pretty much everything else. He is the same cruel bastard as in OTL with all attitudes of his time. It is just that he contemplates his actions and their results better than he did in a reality.

“Fair compensation” for the property lost in Ukraine means that he is going to get a legal possession of a big part of the land on Right Bank Ukraine [1] at a dumping price. As a result, he will have an ample resources to distribute among the loyal Russian nobility (and the loyal Cossack leadership) thus preventing evolution of the Hetmanate into a super-mini-state capable of conducting an independent policy in the region. Allocating a seemingly big sum of 500,000 rubles (by the Treaty of Andrusovo Russia paid 200,000 to compensate szlachta of Smolensk region) did not mean that he was paying out of his own pocket [2]. Most of that sum had been produced by the “confiscations” from the PLC territories and, at least on the Russian side, there was an understanding that not all these money had to be spent.

Commission had been headed:

On the Polish side by Stanisław Leszczyńsky who acquitted himself well at Warsaw and deserved some monetary compensation (providing that it is not be at Peter’s expense). It was expected that he is not going to be a major impediment to the schema due to a complete absence of the guts and, seemingly, a good understanding of his own interests.

On the Russian side by Alexander Menshikov who already developed a well-deserved reputation of the biggest thief in the Tsardom (taking into an account the prevailing practices and attitudes, this was quite a fit). OTOH, he was absolutely loyal to Peter, energetic, ruthless and generally quite capable person. Appointment of a co-chair of the Commission was accompanied by making him Governor-General of the Right Bank Ukraine (and, as such, a commander of all Russian troops placed there and a person responsible for installing the Russian adminjstration in the region). At the farewell interview Peter gave him a number of instructions:

(a) Stop the uprising ASAP by all means necessary. Which meant: use the troops where and when needed and, because now the rebels are going against Tsar’s interests, don’t be shy of the mass executions.
(b) Start attracting subordinate Cossack leaders to the Russian side.
(c) Keep Hetman under control. Which meant: minimize spreading of the Hetmanate to the Right Bank.
(d) When it comes to the compensation, don’t be too generous with the funds.
(e) Don’t steal

The last item may be slightly confusing but not to the Russian contemporaries. It meant “don’t act against Tsar’s interests”. The bribes are OK and, in the cases of the “big fish” which later may be useful to the Russian “interests” within the PLC, the applicants can be awarded by a compensation with only a slight “discount”. It also means that Menshikov and his subordinates must not appropriate the “compensated” estates to themselves: they belong to the Tsar and when everything is done everybody is going to be awarded according to the merits but those who are not willing to wait may end up wishing for a nice, fast beheading.

Of course, it was expected that the Polish commissioner is also going to take bribes for putting his benefactors on the top of the list and advocating their interests.

Taking into an account a potential number of the claimants, it was not expected that all of them are going to get a thorough review of their claims or even a guarantee that these claims are going to be reviewed. The magnates with the estates elsewhere will definitely top the list both because they have funds for the “gratitudes” and are important politically, then go the lesser personages and a minor szlachta ends on a bottom, probably with some small uniform amount per capita, because there are no resources (or wish) to review all their tiny estates. They can stay or they can receive some money, pack their belongings (if they have any) and ride to Poland in a caravan guarded by the Russian troops: their lives are worthy of something.

The Russian members of the Commission had been incentivized to save money in expectation that at least part of the saved account would be used by Peter as their bonuses (additionally to the land grants).






________________
[1] In OTL by the Treaty of Nystad he paid a huge sum of money to defeated Sweden as a compensation for the lost Baltic territories. Generosity? Yeah, sure, and I can sell you the Brooklyn Bridge really cheap. Actually, he was screwing his ally, August to whom by the initial agreement this region should go. For the money paid he got in Nystad Treaty a text saying that Sweden is ceding these territories explicitly to Russia, which excluded a possibility of any future legal claims. All other aspects aside, in the areas of bureaucracy and legalize the Tsardom was quite advanced state even prior to Peter.
[2] Prior to Paul I there was no special funds allocation for the imperial family in a budget: all money were monarch’s to spend at his/her discretion.

 

[alexmilman]

I know next to nothing about the Cossacks. But to offer my two cents, if resuming war with the Ottomans is an idee fixe for Peter, then he might postpone dealing with the issue after the war.

This, of course, is a more sensible scenario but for the reasonably effective use of the Cossacks, their contingents has to be incorporated into the Russian army as the light troops assigned to the regular army units rather than as an independently acting Cossack host, which was more or less an earlier practice. And this requires a serious or even fundamental change: they are not anymore an army led by its Hetman and the Hetman had to accept this change of his role. Of course, something of the kind had been happening earlier but not it has to be institutionalized. This also means an increased independence of the subordinated Cossack commanders from the Hetman: during the war they are under command of the Russian generals and expect the awards from Tsar, not Hetman. And this means that their peace time dependencies are also subject to change: they have two lines of dependency, Hetman and Tsar, and the second line keeps growing more important.

To make a long story short, before starting a war Peter has to make serious changes in the Cossack Host. He also must put situation on the Right Bank under control, which means that he has to sort out the Cossacks, serfs who live on now state-owned lands, serfs who live on the lands of the old (if they did not leave) and the newly established estate owners and some other issues.

And, based upon the result of a war, he may need to make more changes.

There might be strategies that could help in the short and medium term. For example, he can try to push the Cossacks of spending their martial vigor raiding the Black Sea littoral, even utilizing their boats as they did in the 17th century. Or promise them support and the lush pastures of Kuban if a number of them moves to attack the Nogais.

Don’t force me to go ahead of myself because I’ll end up writing the same things twice.


One thing that I’m going to say right now is that a majority of the Cossacks who settled in Ukraine (unlike those of the Sich) have very little to no experience with the boat-based raiding. Look at the map: how much of such raiding can you do from, say, Vinnitsa? Where is a nearest sea?

They are just mounted or foot irregulars and even their skills in scouting, ambushes, etc. are quite limited due to the shortage of experience.

I assume his goal is the destruction of the Tatars.

There is more than one goal and these goals are inter-related.

If he achieves that goal while distracting the Cossacks, then it would be game over. A post-war situation with russian garrisons in both ukraine and the ottoman fortresses of the south, leaves the Cossacks surrounded. Then it would be the classic tsar policy of divide and conquer in submitting the Cossacks. At that point, it will be a headache for sure, but strategically the threat of an indepedent Hetmanate will be less than minimal.

Without getting into the details, purpose of having a Hetmanate at all will go away.

I did notice it but I thought it meant something different than napoleonic columns !

“Battalion column from the center”. French military terminology is confusing because within the different contexts the “company” and “platoon” are referencing the same thing and “division” has two quite different meanings. But the ways of building a column and forming a battalion square are the same. However, the tactical usage is Russian, not French: unlike the French, Russians used both formations in offensive way and were cutting shooting to an absolute minimum.

Assault columns with bayonets will simply go through the Jannisaries as hot knife through butter.

Mostly squares.

Alex you might find interesting this dissertation on the 18th century Ottoman Army https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.632.9771&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Thanks, quite interesting.

 

[Merrick]

This thread's being updated faster than I can keep up.
I liked your take on the intricacies of eighteenth-century diplomacy (they can be so civilised in how they share out other peoples lands/countries etc at swordpoint - just as long as the big players get to wet their beaks).

I'm not expert on 18th-century economics, but it looks to me that both parties (Sweden and Russia - who cares about the Poles anyway?) are getting a good deal out of this one. Eblag probably won't last, but Sweden gets a nice cohesive block in Livonia whose only potential external threats are Russia (friendly) and PLC (would be hard put to threaten a determined rabbit at this point) and does it without irretrievably pissing off the Prussians or the British/Dutch. Meanwhile Peter get his window on the Baltic, a chunk of the land he really wants in Right-Bank Ukraine and a nice secure northern border while he turns to the south. And he got his new army some useful training and best of all the Poles wound up paying for it.

Compared to Azov, this is a major success. So - Round 2 vs the Ottomans?

 

[alexmilman]

This thread's being updated faster than I can keep up.
I liked your take on the intricacies of eighteenth-century diplomacy (they can be so civilised in how they share out other peoples lands/countries etc at swordpoint - just as long as the big players get to wet their beaks).

I do not claim to be an expert in the XVIII century diplomacy but IMO at least its part related to the region we are talking about more or less boils down to what you just described.

Of course, in each specific case there were its own peculiarities, especially in the beaks-related area. I read that Count Piper never was accepting money from the foreigners (but the jewels were fine), Chancellor Bestuzhev-Rumin had been taking (and extorting) bribes only from the friendly countries, etc. But these are just insignificant details.

I'm not expert on 18th-century economics, but it looks to me that both parties (Sweden and Russia - who cares about the Poles anyway?) are getting a good deal out of this one. Eblag probably won't last, but Sweden gets a nice cohesive block in Livonia whose only potential external threats are Russia (friendly) and PLC (would be hard put to threaten a determined rabbit at this point) and does it without irretrievably pissing off the Prussians or the British/Dutch. Meanwhile Peter get his window on the Baltic, a chunk of the land he really wants in Right-Bank Ukraine and a nice secure northern border while he turns to the south. And he got his new army some useful training and best of all the Poles wound up paying for it.

Compared to Azov, this is a major success. So - Round 2 vs the Ottomans?

Don’t be in a rush (is it just my impression or a war is the only thing everybody is truly interested in?).

There are plenty things that has to be done before starting a new adventure or Peter risks to find himself in a Prut-like situation:
1. The military lessons had been useful but only a fraction of his army got the experience so these lessons had been formulated and implemented on a large scale and this includes both hardware and organizational/operational issues.
2. The right bank looks nice on a map but before it can serve a base of the operations quite a few problems must be resolved.
3. Peter finally has to start converting his capital into something “presentable” from the Western point of view.
4. He got port on a Baltic coast and he needs to expand its throughput and, again, make it “presentable”.
5. He has to start paying serious attention to properly preparing the future officers cadres, aka, needs to create the military schools

And the list is going on. I’m going to start addressing these issues.

 

[alexmilman]

19. Putting house in order

19.1. Farewell, Warsaw!

Peace of Warsaw had been signed and properly celebrated by the allied monarchs and the happy Poles [1] in the Polish capital. To increase tzeir happiness all the way to a pure ecstasy, August was permitted to return to his capital and, after a solemn ceremony of, metaphorically speaking, kissing a collective allied ring [2], was generously allowed to organize more celebrations. In which area (and remembering the promised carrots) he greatly exceeded the expectations by hastily creating Order of the White Eagle (Order Orła Białego) [3] and immediately awarded with it Peter, Charles, Hetman Lubomirsky, Rehnskiöld, Sheremetev, Menshikov, Piper and Golitsyn.

Not to be outdone, Peter awarded Charles and August with Order of St. Andrew,

which for a short while put Charles in a somewhat awkward position: screw August, but Peter should be reciprocated with the equally high Swedish order and Sweden had none. After overnight brainstorming, Charles and Piper designed Order of the Sword [4], which was immediately ordered to the Warsaw jewelers.

On the Russian side Peter got Commander Grand Cross, Sheremetev - Commander 1st Class, Menshikov - commander [5], and the lesser figures - Knight 1st Class and Knight.

Peter immediately fall n love with an idea of a multi-grade military order and, upon return, designed his own Military Order of St. George with the extensions allowing to create prestigious award for the soldiers and non-coms (details later).

The last thing that Charles and Peter discussed before parting their ways was about not too remote future: Alexey Petrovich was 14 and Ulrika Eleonora 16 so perhaps in a couple years there can be a mutually beneficial marriage? Of course, she will be permitted to keep her religion, if she wishes, so no problem there, and our alliance will be etched in stone for the generations to follow….

19.2. Hello, Moscow!
To be honest, Peter did not like Moscow too much because, if anything, it was decisively not European. On a very idealized map of 1689 it looked like that.

In a reality, things were much more …er…. “complicated”:
(a) The map was not showing countless minor lanes bent in the most bizarre ways [6]
(b) The streets were unpaved
(c) Most of the houses, including the old residencies of aristocracy, had been built in a village-like style with the high fences and buildings inside the yards instead of being lined with their facades along the streets.
(d) Most of the houses had been wooden.
(e) In Kremlin there was no suitably modern residence and Peter often had to conduct the formal ceremonies in the old Lefort’s palace on the Yausa River (aka, outside Moscow)

Of course, nobody especially cared about the areas populated by the lower classes (especially those across the Moscow River from Kremlin) but more prestigious areas have to be made presentable and there must be a modern palace in Kremlin.

Old Golytsin’s palace at the beginning of Tverskaya Street [7] was a step in the right direction and now Prince Gagarin had been building his modern palace along the same street.

The trend must be continued with Tverskaya turning “Western” and the central part of Moscow filled with the “civilized” aristocratic residences and official buildings. The (important) rest of the city will follow. Prince Vasily Golitsyn will have to use his (recently renewed) contacts abroad to invite the Italian (the best) or French (second the best) architects to discuss the major reconstruction project and the aristocrats will be persuaded [8] to start rebuilding their Moscow residencies in an appropriate fashion and encouraged to start building the summer residencies on the Yausa River alongside the Lefort’s and Golovin’s palaces

Of course, those who prefer to stick to the old ways will be happy to receive Peter with his All-Joking, All-Drunken Synod of Fools and Jesters and end up being a butt for their not harmless jokes (and paint a big fat cross on their careers and perhaps those of their children, if Peter gets seriously pissed off and send the whole family to some cold place).

Besides upgrading the private residencies, he should start planning creation of the military and naval schools for the noble children: an army and navy need competent officers and as of now the country has to rely exclusively upon the foreign technical specialists who are getting 3 times higher salaries than their Russian counterparts and quite often proved to be not very good. Of course, this is a long term plan but work on it should start right now.

Some of the invited architects should be engaged on planning expansion of the just acquired Nyen: port facilities, official buildings, new construction, etc. Peter is going to visit the place, to see what he actually got and then will formulate more definite plans. Go, dear Prince and Arbeiten!

Now, invite feldzheichmeister-general Jacob Bruce!

______________________
[1] Well, the Poles had to be happy because:
(a) Their “liberators” from August’s tyranny are finally going to be out while at least some valuables still remained in the PLC.
(b) Besides what they already “liberated” during the war and what was promised to the former Duke of Courland (sure, he is going to get his million sooner or later but the date is not being set and the Big Guys don’t really care so “bona fortuna”, “powodzenia”, “viel Glück”, “veiksmi”), the “liberators” did not demand any money and actually some of the “liberated” money may find their way to the pockets of the magnates with the estates in Ukraine.
(c) They are permitted to keep an evil tyrant August on behalf of whom they had been fighting so hard. Now, he is all yours so “smacznego”!
(d) There is going to be a big celebration (see above (a) - (c)) and “everybody” (of course, those who matter) loves the banquets and balls. And if the peasants are under impression that a devastating foreign occupation is a justification for not paying taxes to their masters, they are fundamentally wrong and here he goes, The Lion of Polonia and Hero of the Lost Battles, Great Hetman Lubomirsky with his crown army which he wisely preserved just for this occasion, a true Pater Patriae!
[2] For those who may find parallels with Mafia inappropriate, change “ring” to “posteriors”.
[3] Actually, it was created only in 1705
[4] Another blatant anachronism: it was established only in 1748. But Charles needs a prestigious bauble to avoid looking as a poor relative. Actually, with introducing a multi-grade order he outplays Peter and August (and probably most of the contemporary European monarchs): typically, the awards had only one degree and lacked “flexibility”.
[5] Unlike August, Charles had no need to kiss this specific ass or any other posteriors and here goes flexibility of the new award: to each what he deserves.
[6] Actually, this made sense for a predominantly wooden city: the straight streets would allow the strong winds turning the routine fires into major disasters.
[7] On the map you can see it: it is a long straight street going from Kremlin in West-East (horizontal) direction. The main street of Moscow.
[8] At the risk of Tsar’s displeasure. Perhaps even a severe displeasure.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

2. Russia and Sweden are going to support the Saxon succession to the PLC throne by all means necessary. [14]

Wait... so Russia and Sweden have effectively done away with the whole elective monarchy thing and made the PLC hereditary? Isn't this infringement on their traditional priveleges and freedom of action going to piss off the Polish Nobility way beyond any land grab? Like back in the day the nobles kept the king in his box by electing a different dynasty next time if he stepped out of line.

Like the Nobles (who were interested in the long term level of control their families had over their hereditary lands, something mostly to be achieved by keeping the king in his box, far more than patriotism or short term profit) have far more reason to coup august than any Polish king who signed over Danzig+West Prussia. What am I missing?

 

[alexmilman]

Wait... so Russia and Sweden have effectively done away with the whole elective monarchy thing and made the PLC hereditary?

Nope. They just secretly promised to support election of a candidate which suits them.

Isn't this infringement on their traditional priveleges and freedom of action going to piss off the Polish Nobility way beyond any land grab? Like back in the day the nobles kept the king in his box by electing a different dynasty next time if he stepped out of line.

It is not. The Polish nobility has a complete freedom to elect whoever they prefer as long as this candidate is supported by Russia and Sweden. Pretty much as the buyers of Ford model T had a complete freedom of choosing its color.

If they make a wrong choice, there are always those who will make a right one and if the wrong side persists, you may guess who ends as a winner. If you think that this is unrealistic, read about the WoPS or look at the discussion between CII and Old Fritz regarding election of the next king of the PLC. Strictly speaking, this was started by August II.

Like the Nobles (who were interested in the long term level of control their families had over their hereditary lands, something mostly to be achieved by keeping the king in his box, far more than patriotism or short term profit) have far more reason to coup august than any Polish king who signed over Danzig+West Prussia. What am I missing?

Pretty much everything.

The Golden Liberties are sacrosanct because more often then not they are serving interests of the foreign bosses, guaranteeing that a King of the PLC is not going to start feeling independent and getting the wrong ideas. For example, conducts a foreign policy or the reforms that the bosses do not approve. For this the PLC has wonderful institutes of confederations and liberum veto.

Now, what happens if a magnate feels contrarian? You can find on wiki biography of Karol Stanislav Radziwill, nicknamed Pane Kohanku who was doing this (and repenting) more than once. It was OK because punishment was not too difficult to implement and the carrots (including return of the estates confiscated for the bade behavior) attractive. To quote from an old play, “I’ll sin and repent, sin and repent”. Or you can read about “Repnin Sejm”.

And, if you are an unhappy magnate, you can’t “coup” the king because he is a vital part of the sacrosanct institutions and because even the foreign countries sympathetic to you are not going to approve: when the Bar confederates decided to kidnap King Stas, Austria withdrew its support.

The “magnates” never represented an unified political block (“spiders in a jar” is a comparison offensive to the spiders) so having a powerful “domesticated” faction never was a problem and did not even cost too much. The only potential way of changing this wonderful (for the powerful neighbors and the Polish ruling class) arrangement was to do something fundamentally stupid like the 1st Partition: the losses had been big enough to push the PLC into serious reforms including creation of a meaningful army ( it was too little too late) but so far “C&P Liberators, Inc.” pinched away relatively small territories not quite important to the interests of those who matter. There are few exceptions, like Józef Potocki who had some of his estates on the “lost territories”, but they are special cases in the terms of a compensation and may even end up with the territories on both sides of the border.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Nope. They just secretly promised to support election of a candidate which suits them.

It is not. The Polish nobility has a complete freedom to elect whoever they prefer as long as this candidate is supported by Russia and Sweden. Pretty much as the buyers of Ford model T had a complete freedom of choosing its color.

Well, as long as its secret I guess this isn't a problem so long as August is around. Afterwards, Russia and Sweden will be facing as much trouble as they would get dethroning August or taking Danzig.

OTL Stanisław Leszczyński got couped quick after Poltava

If they make a wrong choice, there are always those who will make a right one and if the wrong side persists, you may guess who ends as a winner. If you think that this is unrealistic, read about the WoPS or look at the discussion between CII and Old Fritz regarding election of the next king of the PLC. Strictly speaking, this was started by August II.

To be fair, this is all after the PLC has been devastated by the GNW and has become a third rate power dominated by foreign interests to a far greater extent than it was before the GNW.

But, yeah, as long as the agreement is secret and no one smells a rat I guess none of this comes up for a while and we can enjoy Peter's southern adventures.

Ignore my interruptions, on with the story...

 

[alexmilman]

Well, as long as its secret I guess this isn't a problem so long as August is around.

It is not a problem at all and it does not even have to remain a secret and, anyway, it would be secret of Polichinelle because the intended purpose is to let everybody know that the PLC is a sphere of the Russian-Swedish interests and that neither external nor internal disruption of these interest is going to be tolerated. Of course, if at some point in a future “the bosses” are going to decide that they want some other arrangement, this promise is not going to worth a paper on which it is written.

Afterwards, Russia and Sweden will be facing as much trouble as they would get dethroning August or taking Danzig.

Nope. Look at the WoPS: there is always a proclaimed alternative candidate supported by pro-Russian/Swedish party so there is no need to dethrone anybody. And the siege of Danzig was an isolated relatively small potato, which just demonstrated that, even with the foreign help, the “wrong” choice is not going to work. Even the Poles learned this as was demonstrated by the next OTL election.

To be fair, this is all after the PLC has been devastated by the GNW and has become a third rate power dominated by foreign interests to a far greater extent than it was before the GNW.

Yes, this is the point. And, unlike OTL “the bosses” are clear and Austria, France and Prussia are off the list.

But, yeah, as long as the agreement is secret and no one smells a rat I guess none of this comes up for a while and we can enjoy Peter's southern adventures.

To use your metaphor (thanks ), the rat must smell so that nobody, inside or outside, has any foolish illusions, including August (if he decides to misbehave): at the moment, August is declared an official pet of Sweden and Russia and, as long as he behaves properly (performing “Jump!”, “Sit!”, “come to Daddy!” and other essential commands), he is being scratched between the ears, getting tasty treats and nice sleeping arrangements. The same applies to the other members of the breed as long as they are nice doggies.

Ignore my interruptions, on with the story...

To misquote Merime, “Here comes the story, don’t blame the author!”

 

[alexmilman]

19. Putting House in order (cont. 1)

19.3. Meet the unicorns!

One of the lessons learned during the LNW was that the Russian artillery tends to be too heavy (aka, requires too many horses and creates too many problems when being transported by the lousy roads and has to use the unreliable bridges) and, while being able to produce a loud “boom!”, its kicking power is not too impressive even for the modified pieces. The howitzers capable of firing explosives were seemingly an answer but they had a fundamental problem: due to the cylindrical camera with a diameter smaller than one of a barrel, the gunpowder has to be pushed into it by hand. Which means that a length of a barrel had been defined by a length of a human arm and that the loading process was slow and a range (defined by a short barrel) was low. Finding solution for this problem became one of the top priorities for feldzheichmeister-general Jacob Bruce [1] and he (or his subordinates) came with a brand new type of a cannon which was somewhere between the long- and short-barrel artillery. the unicorn [2].

So far, the cannons had a barrel 18-25 calibers long and howitzers - 6-8 calibers. The unicorns had a barrel of 7.5-12.5 calibers with a conic camera. It could be loaded faster than a standard howitzer and had a better ballistics (range almost two times greater than for a howitzer) while being noticeable lighter than a long-barreled cannon and being able to fire the explosives. For example, barrel of 12-pounder cannon weighted 112 poods and the gun required 15 horses for transportation while a half-pood unicorn could fire 24-pound solid shot or 20-pound grenades and its barrel weighted 4 times less so the gun required only 5 horses. Unlike the conventional cannons, it could shoot at a high elevation (which allowed firing from behind the infantry formations).

Bruce proposed to add 1/2 pood (20 pounds) and 1/4 pood (10 pounds) unicorns to the 6- and 12-pounder guns as a base of the Russian field artillery [2]. Other calibers had to be used in the siege artillery, to use in the fortifications or simply being melted and used for a new production.

19.4. Commission at work and Ukrainian business

The Polish-Russian Compensation Commission, quite predictably, started its work by dealing with the VIP cases out of which VIP’s VIP was Józef Potocki, voyevoda of województwo kijowskie, the richest man in the PLC and owner, among many other estates, of Nemirov which ended up being on the Russian side of a border [4]. During the LNW he sided with August [5], which secured an appeal from the “Formerly ‘the Bad Doggie’ but now ‘The Favorite Pet’”, also known as King August. Mostly preserved wealth guaranteed an ability (and willingness) to “back words with the deeds”. Of course, even Menshikov would not risk to make a decision on his own so he brought the case to Peter’s attention. Besides the purely theoretical assumption that Peter may go out of his way just to please August, there were some practical considerations:
(a) with the estates on both sides of the border, Potocki would be inclined to follow a pro-Russian course (a big part of his Polish estates had been close enough to the border to make them an easy object for the “friendly visits” from the other side).
(b) In 1703 he did Peter a huge favor by almost completely crushing the Ukrainian uprising before Mazepa crossed the Dnieper with his army. Most of the leaders had been captured and executed and the surviving peasants learned in a practical way that rebellion against their masters is wrong. Taking into an account that by this time the Catholic Polish nobility in both voyevodships acquired by Russia was also mostly gone (either to the safer areas or forever), Peter’s ongoing task of establishing proper order on the Right Bank was greatly simplified and Peter was (almost) always willing to award the good services, especially when this cost him nothing [6].
As a result, Menshikov was permitted to receive “gratitude” and Pototcki had been allowed to keep his estate in Nemirov without becoming Peter’s subject. The details of his rights as the Russian estate owner (pretty much the same except that he lost a right to impale his “subjects” but gained a right to send them to Siberia, address the “ultimate” cases to the Russian authorities for the due process [7]) and related obligations (his serfs became subjects to the Russian taxation system) had been duly discussed leaving both sides quite happy.

Prince Wiśniowiecki and few other got the same treatment (guaranteeing a strong pro-Russian party in the Sejm) while the lesser fish was handled according to the rules.

The second part of the task assigned to Menshikov, as Governor-General of the Right Bank Ukraine) was to establish a strong Russian administration and local support base while not, yet, openly offending Hetman Mazepa who officially became Hetman on both sides of the Dnieper.

A little bit of a background:

During the LNW Peter found the Ukrainian Cossacks being pretty much useless in anything but looting.

On a battlefield they could not stand up not only to the regular Saxon troops but to the Polish cavalry well ( hussars, armored cavalry, dragoons, reitars and all the way down to the irregular militia) unless there were overwhelming numeric odds. Even worse, by their “attack fast and run even faster” behavior they, more than once endangered the Russian troops to which they had been assigned, leaving infantry alone (fortunately, the battalion columns took care of these situations).

They could leave at will and disobey orders of the Russian commanders because formally they were subordinated to the Hetman. Orders not to loot some specific estate (see above regarding the “special cases”) were simply ignored.

In a time of peace they were organized into “regiments” (usually, few hundreds each) named after the places around which they lived. For all practical purposes, these Cossacks were just privileged ill-regulated mounted military settlers of a questionable experience.

The Cossacks of the Zaporozhian Sich were a different story in the terms of their fighting qualities and, especially, as far as the coastal raiding was involved: they had the boats, knowledge of the coastal line and experience of raiding it. However, there was a big, fat “but”: they were absolutely uncontrollable, considering themselves to be pretty much an independent stratocratic state policy of which was at each specific moment decided, formally, by the universal vote and, more realistically, by the military leaders elected by such a vote with a possibility of being replaced by the same procedure at any moment. While the women were not permitted in a capital called “Sich”, there were plenty of them around and in the land-based campaigns they’d follow the host [8] with the obvious impact upon size of a baggage train. Painting below depicts their host on a march and their camp. There was an additional political problem: the serfs had been routinely escaping to the Sich.

However, time of the getting rid of both did not come, yet.

The first Russian administrative step on the Right Bank were along the following lines:
1. The estates of the nobility which accepted the Russian rule were preserved (with the serfs).
2. Freed territories which Peter decided to distribute among the Russian nobility became typical Russian estates with the serfs.
3. The Cossack officer class was incorporated into the Russian nobility and given estates with the serfs. As the Russian nobles they were not subordinated to the Hetmanate.
4. The rank and file Cossacks had been socially converted into “odnodvortsy”: personally free military settlers who had been receiving unalienable land grant for their service, could not be turned into the serfs and could have the serfs and eventually made it into the Russian nobility. In the terms of organization they were arranged into the regiments of a mounted Landsmilitia (based upon the existing “regiments”) subordinated to the Russian military administration. Potentially, this was not excluding conscription into the regular army but they would be getting the privileged terms in the areas of promotion into the non-coms and a limited term of service.
5. The serfs who lived in the areas which were not given to anybody got status of the “state peasants” a category which were not exactly the serfs but could be turned into them if the state land on which they lived is given to a private person.
6. The Hetman got a big personal estate on the Right Bank, even bigger estate near Baturin, the Kleinodes of the Right Bank Hetmanship, blue ribbon of St. Andrew (as shown on his portrait), estate near Moscow, newly constructed palace on renovated Tverskaya Street and a very insistent invitation to spend more of his time there so that the Tsar can benefit from his wise advices.

When Mazepa attempted to utter an unhappy noise, it was hinted that, of course, he can spend all of his time in
the Solovetsky Monastery

or some other religious institution of his choice located in the same area. Surely, this will be very good for his soul. Being of the pragmatic persuasion Mazepa did not waste too much time on thinking and took the first option. Peter duly appreciated his mental abilities and upped the bonus by making him a fieldmarshal and a member of the newly-created Senate.

With this issue being settled, similar reform had been conducted on the Left Bank thus leaving only the Sich unattended for the time being.

Formally, Baturin (with the fortifications removed) remained Hetmanate’s capital and Mazepa was allowed to have a small “court” there and couple hundreds of the Hetman’s Guards in really nice uniforms. Taking into an account that Mazepa did not have children, probably tge issue of the Hetmanate was going to be completely resolved in not too remote furure.

____________________
[1] To quote from wiki, “Bruce was one of the best educated people in Russia at the time, a naturalist and astronomer. In 1701 he founded the first Russian observatory; it was located in Moscow in the upper story of the Sukharev Tower. Bruce's scientific library of more than 1,500 volumes became a substantial part of the Russian Academy of Sciences library.Among Muscovites, Bruce gained fame as an alchemist and magician, due in part to the innovative design of the Sukharev Tower, which was very unusual in 18th century Moscow.” He is also credited with the creation of “Bruce’s calendar” which, besides huge volume of the data related to the Russian geography, contained predictions regarding climate, economy, politics and astrology-based recommendations on the …er… “private matters”. Calendar was republished numerous times over the XVIII -XIX centuries with the proper corrections in the “predictions” part. It was enormously popular.
[2] Actually, invented during the reign of Elizabeth I but technologically there was nothing preventing its earlier apoearance.
[3] In OTL Arakcheev in 1805.
[4] The most important (IMO) thing related to him is that he is credited with starting production of the flavored “Nemiroff” vodkas (even if officially this brand appeared in mid-XVIII). Personally, I did not like “honey-pepper” variety but it is just my personal taste and I’m not going to change history fundamentally, based strictly on this criteria.

[5] In OTL until 1705 so in this TL he is deprived of the opportunity to change sides.
[6] “а вам, мой господин, то обойдётся лишь в стоимость чернил” - “you’ll have to pay only for the ink” from “Inquisitor” by Konofalsky. Why the witty things always had been written by somebody else?
[7] I was told that by this time Tsardom had something like 50 types of a death penalty, don’t ask me for the details: I never wanted to find them out.
[8] In OTL they made such a repulsive impression on Charles that he refused to use them for anything except digging the trenches during siege of Poltava.

 

[alexmilman]

19. Putting house in order (cont. 2)

19.5. Ingria

“Sweden get something that will provide immediate profit. Russia get something that requires a lot of work and investment (in security, infrastructure and probably also moving people in there) before it can give profit.” @von Adler [1]


So Moscow was in a process of being “westernized”, including construction of a modern Tsar’s palace in Kremlin, framework for taking care of the Ukrainian affairs defined and put into the implementation [3], the armories had been busy producing new artillery pieces and the muskets…. Finally, Peter got time to find out what exactly did he got on the Baltic coast. Travel was uneventful and the findings not too encouraging. Look at. the map below really carefully. Do you see the tiny numbers along the Neva’s banks? These are houses. Go further upstream and just after the river bend here it is, a great town of Nyen and opposite to it a mighty fortress of Nyenskans (I think that it is #17).

Somebody with a lesser imagination (and access to a free work force) than Peter would be depressed and perhaps even start asking himself stupid questions like “why did I bother with getting that? But a trademark of the great rulers is that they have a “vision” and understandings that specifics of its implementation belong to the category “boring details” and can be delegated to those charged with execution of the task. Surely, Peter was a great ruler and that fundamental fact was not changed by a recently acquired habit of using head not just for eating and making historic pronouncements but for the thinking as well. Thinking part was just conveniently placed between getting an idea and putting it into implementation, filling some gaps in the “boring details”.

City has to be built so it must be built properly and for this you need a plan. Architect Jean-Baptiste Alexandre Le Blond had been summoned and came with a plan of the “ideal Renaissance city few centuries late” (below) after which he was assigned a number of the lesser projects in which he was quite successful. Planning stage had been attended to and after this the architect’s fantasies can be safely ignored as absolutely impractical.

Peter’s “vision” had stress on a port so the new city, called St-Petersburg, started around mouth of the Neva River with just few additions to Nyen. Of course, this meant dealing with a rather swampy ground but if Louis XIV built Versailles on a swamp, why could not Peter build a port on another swamp? It was just a matter of bringing enough workers and supplying them with the needed instruments and food in the quantities big enough for them not dying from starvation and accommodations good enough to prevent them from dying out from the diseases. This was a pure pragmatism: it was cheaper to keep the mobilized [4] workers in a reasonably good shape rather then having a permanent need of bringing the new ones from all over the Tsardom just because Menshikov & Co keep stealing most of the money allocated for the construction. “Most” was a keyword because stealing and embezzlement were “unofficially legitimized” parts of the system allowing the state to keep salaries of its officials reasonably (or even unreasonably) low. But it was one thing when they had been extorting money from the private persons, another when they felt at least some restraint when dealing with the state money and a totally different issue when they were completely forgetting any shame and indulged themselves in a “hungry stealing” (something similar to the shark’s feeding frenzy). Menshikov could expect to get off relatively easy, beating with a stick personally by Peter and a heavy fine had been rather routine punishments for him, but the lesser fish may not be so lucky. For this sin Prince Gagarin, governor of Siberia, was executed, Andrew Vinius was “pardoned” by Peter and got away with being beaten by the knut and a heavy fine and both of them belonged to Peter’s inner circle.


With “Alexashka” being safely busy with the Polish-Ukrainian affairs and the lesser personages being assured that a sight of them being first broken on the wheel and then slowly quartered (with an option of being impaled) may provide a good entertainment for the workers from whom they had been stealing, a level of the “misappropriations” went down to a generally-accepted level and ROI proved to be reasonably high. It is not that the workers were not dying in the big numbers, they were not dying at the excessively high rates and it actually did not take too much: an adequate supply of a flour, few big bakeries providing a reasonably good bread (not mixed with a straw and whatever else), adequate supply of meat and cabbages (the Livonians on the “left” and Finns on the “right” greeted a new market) and, while the barracks should not be too expensive, they should not be absolutely lousy either and heating really did not cost too much while seriously cutting the death rate from cold). Scurvy was, of course, a mass killer but this was a common problem all over Europe. As a result, by 1907 St. Petersburg grew up considerably [5].

Of course, it was not like everybody immediately jumped to the opportunity provided by a new port but it immediately became the second biggest port in Russia [6] and traffic through it kept growing, especially due to the low custom dues (1% had been retained from the Nyen times and this was much lower than 6% in Riga) . It was definitely better suited than the Livonian ports for the growing Russian-Swedish trade and eventually some of the traditional Dutch and British trade via Archangelsk had been transferred to it. Many things should be done before this adventure starts getting profitable but a potential was there even with the (unsaid but implied) obligations not to shut the existing imports/exports via Riga and Revel. Narva felt hit soon enough but it never was a big potato and its losses had been compensated by the revenues from the growing trade on the routes Stockholm-St. Petersburg and Abo-St.Petersburg.


Kotlyn Island, guarding a naval access to the new port, had been fortified and designated as a base for the future Baltic fleet, which so far amounted to few galleys, galeases, and double-sloops but later was strengthened by the bigger ships arriving from Archangelsk.

These ships had been built on the new wharf in Olonetsk area on the Svyr River not too far from St. Petersburg. This was something similar to the wharf in Voronez: she ships built there had to sail down the river to the Ladoga Lake, cross it and then sail down the Neva to get to the Gulf of Finland. This was OK for the relatively small ships but transporting the big ones to the point of destination could be problematic. Of course, it was seemingly reasonable to establish a wharf directly in St. Petersburg but getting all needed timber there was problematic and the same applied to bringing a skilled labor into the city in a process of construction with a shoestring supply system. For a while Peter opted for expansion of the Solombalskaya wharf near Archangelsk: there was a lot of a good quality timber and experienced local shipbuilders. Well, there was to a certain degree an “ideological conflict” between the local shipbuilding tradition of constructing the merchant & fishing ships well-suited for sailing in the regional icy waters and a need to build the Western-style warships (and, hopefully, the merchant ships as well) for operations outside the Northern area. The first 6 big fluyt-style merchant ships had been built in 1700-02 followed by 3 12- and 26-guns frigates, which Peter ordered to port to the Onego Lake and then by the Svir River and Ladoga Lake to the Neva [7]. Later, the wharf began construction of the bigger warships, starting from the 52-guns ships of the line [8]. Most of the new warships had been sailing to St-Petersburg leaving some for the coastal defenses of Archangelsk and Kola Ostrog, which Pater was turning into a naval base [9].


A byproduct of Peter’s visit to the region was his decision to build up a summer residence in a pleasant coastal area to the South of new city: summer climate there was much better than the often unbearable heat of the Moscow summers.





________________________
[1] Could not put it better myself (I already remarked that somebody is always coming with the good statements ahead of me ). My sincere gratitude.
[2] Within the “reasonable limits”: in OTL even by the end of the XIX “off the center” areas looked like that:

[3] Of course, implementation of the framework described in the previous chapter did not happen overnight and was not smooth and bloodless: some serfs still had certain “illusions” (which required deployment of a military force and various methods of “persuasion”), there was a problem with defining who is and who is not a “Cossack”, few Cossack leaders had been too idealistic (or simply did not consider a received “compensation” adequate) to accept the change (but, fortunately, the monasteries of Archangelsk governorship had been quite accommodating), and there was even certain issues on the Russian side with the received estates. Sheremetev, after viewing a proposed gift, wrote to Peter “This estate makes economic sense only with the addition of a nearby unused land. If you can’t add it, please don’t burden me with this gift.” Of course, the necessary addition had been granted and of course only very few people would dare to write something of the kind or at least in the same style but a lot of paper and ink (and money for the bribes) had been spent in a process.
[4] Hopefully, nobody is confused enough to seriously entertain an idea of using the hired workers. First, a needed number of the idiots hardly could be found and second, this is Russia of the XVIII century and Tsar’s name is still “Peter”.
[5] “1725” on a map is, obviously, a misprint.
[6] Out of two.
[7] Thus pretty much preempting a route of the future Belomor Canal. No further comments on that.
[8] Conditions of the Baltic Sea were giving certain advantages to the relatively small ships if the line capable of operating in the shallow waters.
[9] A warm water port and one with an access to the open ocean, which did not depend upon the Danish good graces. Of course, with the main fixation (for a while) being on South and limited resources, Peter could not be excessively ambitious but allowing his sailors to get an ocean-going experience would not hurt.

 

[von Adler]

Great update. I'm looking forward to more.

One thing that might strain future Swedo-Russian relations are the serfs. OTL, some Russian serfs were espaping to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth int he 17th century due to the slightly better conditions there.

Karl XI tried to get serfdom abolished in Estonia and Livonia,but the motion was defeated in the parliament of both Duchies - he abolished it by decree in Ingria and Kexholm (not that there were many sefs in either province, but still). However, the reduction of noble held land in Estonia and Livonia meant a de facto if not de jure abolishment of serfdom - the Swedish crown freed the serfs it got from seized land, reintroduced the moving week (giving the serfs the right to choose another landlord and move from their current to their new one during one week of the year) and abolished the Estonian and Livonian nobility's right to "hand and neck", ie being police, prosecutor, judge and executioner all in one on their own estate, putting the legal rights in the hands of the Swedish governors and in theory (practise was something else entirely, as we all know) gave the Estonian and Livonian serfs equal rights before the law.

Estonian and Livonian nobility quickly had to improve their treatment of their serfs, in essence making them tenants, since otherwise they would all move to crown estates where they were treated better.

Some of the serfs and working force Peter moves to Ingria will pick up on the difference in treatment of their social class across the border and might escape, and Peter and/or the Russian nobility that "owns" these serfs will be wanting them back. I'm sure Karl XII will be happy to return most of them in the interest of good relations, but sooner or later there will be some case where Sweden refuses - perhaps because the serf has joined a Swedish garrison regiment and sworn an oath to the Swedish king and is in theory a Swedish subject now.

Karl might also do a shake-up of the government system of Estonia and Livonia - the nobility that would side with an outsider probably tried during the siege of Riga and can have their estates and title of nobility revoked, which might persuade the others in the parliaments to support a change where Karl XII can rule by decree as he can in Sweden, or at least a formal abolishment of serfdom.

Regardless, with the increased trade, there is bound to be new wealth created in Russia and with it some social change. Many of the goods Russia sell (tar, hemp, lumber) are "cash crops" made by the serfs, and there were historically small trade empires created by serfs who either bought their freedom or just hired others to deliver their due (usually day labour) to their landlords. With the earlier increased trade, there are bound to be more and earlier serf trade companies, and through them information will spread.

It will be interesting to see if this becomes a factor ITTL.

 

[dunHozzie]

It would be a thing of beauty @von Adler if that manages to spread across the border into Russia in stead. Gradual emancipation of the serfs and the increase of literacy would be a game changer this early in Russian history. But it might be a little ASB.