I think you'd need some combination of a failed early D-Day paired with (and a response to) a Soviet collapse in 1942.
TUBE ALLOYS was mostly a laboratory bench project. Until Fermis controlled reaction in Chicago in 1942 there was next to nothing to base a large scale project on. Lab bench test would not produce a big scary accident. & There had been numerous small accidents already. Radiation poisoning was long common in the 1920s & 30s
Using nukes to get a victorious Germany would be impossible:
- Air defence of Germany would be impenetrable to a lightened, unescorted b-29, Ta-152s, he-219's, me-262s, 128mm Flak with radar and proximity fuses, etc.
- Closeness to the UK, if a nuke falls in Nuremberg or Munich, expect a v-2 with chemical loads in London in a few hours, not to mention the effects of fallout and etc spreading to France and other occupied nations.
- Race, Germany is the center of Europe, of the white, civilized race, compared to the brutal and violent asian races, Churchill objected to the starvation of Germans and lamented the destruction of German cities while no tears were spared over Bengalis or the Japanese turned into ash.
Did people know or care about fallout in the 1940s and 1950s?
As for retaliation, effective delivery of chemical weapons by rockets is harder than it sounds. I suspect if there is a planned nuclear strike, there would have been reminder of gas mask drills in Britain for months beforehand in anticipation.
It's also not guaranteed that they would retaliate in that way. Remember that the Nazis didn't use chemical warfare even against the Soviets when they threatened Berlin itself, and nor did they do so when Dresden was firebombed.
The time you know you face nuclear destruction (rather than firebombing and occasional nuclear attacks) is when the enemy starts using plutonium bombs. This means they are producing fissile materials in reactors on an industrial scale, rather than laboriously refining uranium. Despite the limitations of their nuclear programme, I suspect the Nazi nuclear scientists would know this and be able to tell the difference from isotope signatures after the attack (as the Japanese nuclear scientists did).
But I agree that delivering a nuclear bomb when you don't have overwhelming air supremacy is a huge problem unless you can fly high enough to make interception impractical and AA fire ineffective.
As for retaliation, effective delivery of chemical weapons by rockets is harder than it sounds. I suspect if there is a planned nuclear strike, there would have been reminder of gas mask drills in Britain for months beforehand in anticipation.
It's also not guaranteed that they would retaliate in that way. Remember that the Nazis didn't use chemical warfare even against the Soviets when they threatened Berlin itself, and nor did they do so when Dresden was firebombed.
The time you know you face nuclear destruction (rather than firebombing and occasional nuclear attacks) is when the enemy starts using plutonium bombs. This means they are producing fissile materials in reactors on an industrial scale, rather than laboriously refining uranium. Despite the limitations of their nuclear programme, I suspect the Nazi nuclear scientists would know this and be able to tell the difference from isotope signatures after the attack (as the Japanese nuclear scientists did).
But I agree that delivering a nuclear bomb when you don't have overwhelming air supremacy is a huge problem unless you can fly high enough to make interception impractical and AA fire ineffective.
That was the madman in Berlin's line, not Winston Churchill's. Winston Churchill was the guy who put Arthur Harris (the man hellbent on bombing and burning German cities to rubble) in charge of Bomber Command.
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The Soviet Union, with significant Western Support in logistics and communications, defeats the German aligned axis powers—however, Western powers resentment over the socialisation of Europe under bolshevik control leads to a horrific cold war lasting 48 years.
Probably during the Phoney War. It'd be hard for any belligerents involved to justify peace after war had been declared, but it would be far more feasible than after the Saar Offensive.
Maybe in those crucial few months the Western Allies might come up with a treaty -- public or secret -- with the USSR, to countermand Molotov-Ribbentropp. Alternatively, maybe the Western Allies cultivate relations with the fascists to undermine Stalin. Or, maybe the secret relationship between the USSR and Nazi Germany is more extensive than it was OTL, or is at least believed to be; and thus the Western Allies agree to a negotiated settlement.
Final scenario -- another conference to hash everything out, this one mediated by a neutral power. I can think of no country with the clout to mediate in 1939 other than the US, but the US was not in the League of Nations, and wasn't interested in getting involved in European affairs again. But FDR was in office at this point, and he had considerably more interest in foreign affairs than his predecessors; maybe he'd call a conference? Maybe get the US in the League of Nations?
Moscow falls and the Red Army retreats behind the Urals, creating a Vietnam War scenario for the Germans. In the Pacific, maybe we could have a stalemate in Guadalcanal since U.S. casualties were high and they were almost pushed back to the sea. Maybe we could have a delayed Pacific War in which the U.S. comes back to liberate Guam and the Philippines before the war becomes a stalemate. We would then have an Allies-Axis Cold War.
I'm not sure how you could ever get a stalemate in the PTO, given the size of the USN by 1944.
Unless the U.S. is content with liberating Guam and the Philippines. As in the Japanese sue for peace before Iwo Jima and Okinawa happens.
Which a)wouldn't be a stalemate and b)no offer Japan would have made would have been acceptable.
How about Germany doesn't declare war on the US? The US government will have a hard time justifying sending goodies to Europe when their own backyard is in flames. Japan gets stomped into a mudhole earlier than OTL. USSR/UK still get some material, but I have to believe that it would be heavily reduced, with everything going after Japan. Will that be enough to let Germany stalemate? I don't think so, not without something else happening too, but it might be a start.
The UK is still at war with Japan, so FDR could easily justify Lend Lease to arm the UK "against Japan." As for the Soviet Union, same thing - "gosh, we sure don't want our enemies in Japan to take the Soviet Far East, making us liberate that too. Better arm the Soviets against Japan."
The fact that all this aid would be used against Germany - well, you know, how can we possibly tell other countries what their security needs are?
The Race bit seems based on literally nothing. Since the Brits openly did their best to burn every German city to ash as it was and the original perceived target for Tube Alloy was the Germans.
Frankly the notion that against a " Victorious Reich" the Allies wouldn't use nukes because of " Racial reasons" is laughable.
Perhaps we could look at how well the Ta152, proximity fuses fared against Dresden sized raids in OTL before writing off a B29 raid.
Anyway tricks are probably a good way to increase the odds.
Send in a few large raids with some B29s flying way above a few times, then the fighters and AA get used to dealing with the ones they can reach. One day, the B29s peel off from the main force to a different destination and they have a much improved chance.
Anyway tricks are probably a good way to increase the odds.
Send in a few large raids with some B29s flying way above a few times, then the fighters and AA get used to dealing with the ones they can reach. One day, the B29s peel off from the main force to a different destination and they have a much improved chance.
*Germans copy MB162 after fall of France, maybe try to improve it, mass produce the best version they have, then use it to hit the USSR at Leningrad and behind the Urals. Leningrad falls, shutting off the northern Lend-Lease route, and forcing the fall of Moscow in 1943. Synthetic plants are supplemented by captured Russian stocks as well as oil wells in the Caucasus. German air cover proves more effective than OTL as manufactories move underground. Normandy proceeds as OTL as does the Italian front but Germany is able to force a defensive line at the Rhine and Po Rivers on one side and the Urals on the other. Germany slowly advances evermore East and settles at the Ob River, signing the Treaty of Irkutsk in 1944. Large German armies then head east very quickly, reinforcing the Rhine just as the Allies gain beachheads on the eastern side of the river. By 1945 Germany still controls much of Europe and everyone is interested in rebuilding.
*Germany supports the cavity magnetron invented in 1935 and develops better radar systems such that by the Battle of Britain its fighters are carrying compact "Berlin" radar units. Dunkirk results in 300000 soldiers captured on the beach while the ensuing air battle sees German fighters and support systems with fairly accurate targeting of the Royal Air Force fighters. Britain comes to the table in September 1940.
USSR is now the sole target of the German Army and they focus even more against Russia, driving Stalin into greater paranoia and not heeding the warning from Richard Sorge. Nineteen divisions remain in Siberia as Germany takes Moscow in early November 1941 as Leningrad falls two weeks later. Russia fights on for three more years only to find themselves at the table surrendering everything west of the Yenzhy River. Germany proceeds to prepare its Navy for Operation Sea Cow, the invasion of the continental United States, scheduled for May of 1950...
*Germany supports the cavity magnetron invented in 1935 and develops better radar systems such that by the Battle of Britain its fighters are carrying compact "Berlin" radar units. Dunkirk results in 300000 soldiers captured on the beach while the ensuing air battle sees German fighters and support systems with fairly accurate targeting of the Royal Air Force fighters. Britain comes to the table in September 1940.
USSR is now the sole target of the German Army and they focus even more against Russia, driving Stalin into greater paranoia and not heeding the warning from Richard Sorge. Nineteen divisions remain in Siberia as Germany takes Moscow in early November 1941 as Leningrad falls two weeks later. Russia fights on for three more years only to find themselves at the table surrendering everything west of the Yenzhy River. Germany proceeds to prepare its Navy for Operation Sea Cow, the invasion of the continental United States, scheduled for May of 1950...
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I'm having visions of towed Rhine barges in the north Atlantic.