Italico Valore - A more successful 1848 revolution in Italy - a TL

Maybe I missed it but what is the situation of Greece in this TL? I can't imagine the Ottomans being happy with the idea of an independent Greece.
Maybe I missed it but what is the situation of Greece in this TL? I can't imagine the Ottomans being happy with the idea of an independent Greece.

Greece got it's Independence in 1832, before the POD and they stayed neutral in the current war because they're smart enough to realize they can't take on the Ottomans, Italy and Britain at the same time even with Russia's help. I assume their position is the same as OTL.
Italy has quite a big share of the canal that by now has been in function for 6 years, facilitating their access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, indeed Assab is the location of a well established Italian trading and coal station that has allowed Italy to gain influence in Eritrea and has started to penetrate in Ethiopia. A base in Zanzibar and Kenya, along with facilitated passage through India would make an Italian attempt in Asia more likely as they have the resources and money to do it.

Without Napoleon III's aggressiveness Indochina would be up for the taking along with Aceh ( with British backing and Bixio's expedition having success), Cochinchina, Cambodia, Annam, parts of Laos, Northern Borneo could be up for the taking and some privilege in Siam under their sphere. A concession in China could be a big boon and Italy could exploit an incident to gain some land.

What would be an interesting location for an Italian treaty port?

If the Italians set up business in Indochina, they may be interested or to get a treaty in the South of China to dominate better that region, or searching a more northern harbour to search better trades with Beijing, Korea and Japan.

With the Germans which could be even more late comers in the colonial age... Shandong peninsula may be the idea. But that would put Italy to compete with the Russians and the Japanese. It would be a nice challenge however...
Final map before the Congress of Paris added in the last chapter

At the very least, Romania's independence will be recognised internationally. Serbia's too, most likely.

Perhaps an independent Bulgaria as well (Russia would want that, certainly), although it's possible that it ends up as an Ottoman vassal.

As for territorial modifications for Serbia and Montenegro - that's another matter. At the very least, there will be some changes to the border there.
At the very least, Romania's independence will be recognised internationally. Serbia's too, most likely.

Perhaps an independent Bulgaria as well (Russia would want that, certainly), although it's possible that it ends up as an Ottoman vassal.

As for territorial modifications for Serbia and Montenegro - that's another matter. At the very least, there will be some changes to the border there.

Yes, as @RyuDrago said, Britain and the Ottomans are the losers here. Expect some changes in the Balkans, after all a war more destructive than the Napoleonic one that ends up in a pre war status quo is unthinkable.

Pity for the Russians though, if they had more resources and money 1876 could well have ended up with a Constantinople Conference, with the Russian army patrolling the city.

The Paris Conference was the largest gathering of international political power since the Vienna Conference of 1815 following the Napoleonic Wars. Like that of Vienna, the Paris Conference had taken place following a great destructive event, in this case the Balkan War, which in its four years of fighting had caused more deaths than the entire duration of the Napoleonic wars. Most of these casualties were caused by diseases that moved with the armies, the destruction of the land and of course the fierce clashes that saw the baptism of fire of the Italian army which fought in a completely respectable way, giving the young nation a leading position in the conference.

The delegates present at the conference represented the great powers involved: Great Britain, Russia, Italy and the Austrian Empire, plus the Ottomans as a minor power, Prussia as a representative of Northern Germany, Spain which had begun to be considered a medium power again on the continent and of course France, host of the conference and neutral arbiter between the factions, on which the task of obtaining a peaceful resolution to the conflict would fall and failure was not an option as French prestige was on the line.

The first to make demands were the Russians who demanded the independence of Romania, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Bulgaria, plus some parts of eastern Anatolia around Kars. The British responded with the withdrawal of all Russian troops across the Danube and the occupation of Sevastopol, as well as the closure of the Black Sea to any form of Russian military and civilian traffic. The Great Game that would unfold at this table had just begun. Tempers began to heat up quickly as both factions were convinced they had won and the French delegation must be acknowledged for having maintained an incredible aplombe during the negotiations.

The first point that was really discussed was Bosnia: behind kilometers of territory controlled by the Russians, its annexation to Austria was a fait accompli and was considered such: Great Britain had secretly pledged to support Maximilian in the occupation and Italy did not object to the motives of its powerful ally. The Russians gave their reluctant approval but by now the damage between Russia and Austria was done: the Russians were isolated at the conference, their only ally was Prussia against Austria but no one felt like wasting capital in Bosnia. The second point was Romania: as stated in Gambetta's manifesto, France sided in favor of Russia in the independence of the Kingdom. This too was a fait accompli and nothing could be done about it.

With the initial questions over, they moved on to the heart of the matter: the Balkans. During the war, Montenegro and Serbia had successfully expelled the Ottomans from the territories they now controlled together with the Russians but failed to completely expel the allies with the Italians who garrisoned much of Kosovo. Bulgaria was divided in half and Sofia, the capital of the region, had been in the hands of the Russians since they captured it in 1873, with the siege failing. However, the allies had an ace up their sleeves: the Italians controlled much of Crimea and the allied fleets had control of the Black Sea and blocked the Baltic, stopping Russian agricultural exports on which the Tsarist economy still depended and causing economic turmoil. France began to mediate between the parties and what followed was, for the Ottomans, a horror. Serbia and Montenegro would become independent, Montenegro under Italian influence and Serbia Russian, Kosovo together with Albania and Macedonia would remain Ottoman. Greece was rewarded for its neutrality with Thessaly, bringing it under strong British influence. The Bulgarian area occupied by the Russians would become the Kingdom of Bulgaria, whose independence was guaranteed by Russia, Great Britain and the Ottoman Empire, which would act as a buffer between the two states.

The allies would have withdrawn from the Crimea and the Russian trade readmitted in the Bosphorus, but not the military one, the Russians would have surrendered all claims on Eastern Anatolia and carried out small border corrections in Georgia and Armenia in favor of the Ottomans. The Black Sea would be open to trade as well as the Danube along which trade would be regulated by the nations through which it flows. Russia could continue to maintain a fleet in the Black Sea as well as the Ottoman Empire. Italy was granted a sphere of influence and freedom of economic initiative as well as legislative extraterritoriality in Albania and Montenegro as a reward for its participation in the war.

Peace succeeded in satisfying the aims of both sides: The Russians had dismantled much of the Ottoman Empire in Europe while the British had stopped the Russian advance before it could reach Constantinople and force the strait, keeping the Mediterranean safe. The Ottoman Empire had paid the price for the Great Game by seeing its Western possessions eroded by the same people who once inhabited them, its elite in revolt against the Sultan and the weakening of the state, to which the Ottoman Debt Organization, a commission established by France, England and Italy to control the payment of loans made to the empire, added to their misery. But this was a price that the great powers were willing to pay to pursue their goals.

With the signing of the Treaty of Paris in 1876, peace returned to the continent and the attention of the Great Powers could turn outside the continent, towards the Americas, Africa which was being explored for the first time and Asia, whose riches were instead ripe dor the taking by someone ambitious and organized enough to do so.


Post War Balkans, Romania gained northern Dobruja to have access to the Black Sea, Serbia and Montenegro doubled their territory and half of Bulgaria is an independent state. Together this nations form a buffer between the three empires, which would fight for influence inside their borders
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And so, the winners of the war was everyone but the Ottomans.

With the signing of the Treaty of Paris in 1876, peace returned to the continent and the attention of the Great Powers could turn outside the continent, towards the Americas, Africa which was being explored for the first time and Asia, whose riches were instead ripe dor the taking by someone ambitious and organized enough to do so.

Ok, what's going on in the Americas?
The point is that the Ottoman Empire already went through a reformist period with the Tanzimat reforms which, having had more than 20 years of peace to be implemented, have had their effect on the Ottoman population, especially in the eastern parts of the empire. To save the Ottomans with their 1815 borders is impossible with my POD but allowing them to survive is another thing, much more feasible; the tradeoff is that they have a very powerful enemy, Russia, which has modernised in the last 15 years or so and will continue down this path as it's benefits are evident to their Czar.

The Ottomans are in a tough spot and unless they keep modernising, avoiding or crushing reactionaries, fanatics and bloated burocracy, the Empire would face the wrath of Russia for a second round and British help won't come the next time.

The Ottomans are running against time and only time itself will decide their downfall or eventual success

The United States spent the 1860s as one of the most politically polarized periods of its short history: every day abolitionists and slavers clashed verbally and physically in congress and in the streets of America having forgotten the moderation on which the republic was founded and falling into extremism. Political instability was heightened by the death of Stephen Douglas in 1861, after only six months in office, who left the reins of the country to his friend and vice president John Breckenridge.


John C. Breckinridge, 17th President of the United States

The premature end of Douglas' mandate definitively extinguished the hopes of the Northern Democrats to unite the party and overcome the differences that had seen them in opposition to the southern delegates, definitively handing the party over to the southern clique which, with Breckenridge in the oval office, moved quickly to reassign cabinet positions to sympathetic members. Breckenridge's much less neutral stance on slavery was not well received in the Northeast, a traditional abolitionist stronghold where Democrats were wiped out in the 1862 midterm elections, bolstering the Republican presence in the Senate but failing to wrest the majority needed to force an abolition.

Frustrated by the inability to carry on their battle, the Republicans began to turn to the more radical faction led by John Freemont, Charles Sunmer and Thaddeus Stevens who advocated extremist policies and more than once threatened an anti-slavery secession in the Senate. On March 4, 1863, after nearly a year of preparation, the three radical leaders went to Philadelphia at the congress called by Abraham Lincoln in a desperate attempt to bring together the moderate and radical wings of the party to form a common front. Faced with senators, representatives and governors, Lincoln's idea failed terribly when Freemont managed to convince delegates of the need to secede from a union that no longer respected the values on which it was founded. Convinced that they respected the will of the founding fathers and moved by the liberal idea of resisting tyranny, the Philadelphia delegates wrote a declaration of independence which was presented in congress by the three main Republican exponents on April 14, proclaiming the birth of the Free States of America. However, no one took them seriously and the event did not have the significance that was expected, although the governors of the North East had mobilized local militias to disarm the regular military units present on their territory.


John C. Fremont, leading radical republican

The actual secession began on April 28 when an army detachment that had been sent to Philadelphia to arrest the secessionist leaders in their provisional capital was routed by a detachment of the Pennsylvania National Militia. As news of the clash spread among the population, the United States fell into chaos: the states of the great lakes and the great plains of the north declared themselves in favor of the secessionist government based in Philadelphia and chaired by its president Sunmer and his deputy Lincoln after this had managed to stand up to the federal government, while along the Pacific coast the local independence movements regained strength with the decrease of federal authority following the setbacks suffered by the govrnment.

Despite everything, the United States still remained a strong nation: most of the army and navy remained loyal to the union and trade with the outside world, especially to France and England, remained open allowing a constant flow of industrial and military the union that allowed it to bridge the industrial gap that separated it from the Free States, owners of the two most industrialized regions of the nation: New York and Pennsylvania. The north began a recruiting campaign by expanding national militias and laying the foundation for a modern, national army under the leadership of John Sedgwick, Ulysses Grant, and William Sherman.

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Union soldiers resting after combat

The war between the union and the rebels was fought in two main theaters: the Atlantic one that ran from the coasts to the Appalachians, characterized by narrow spaces and large concentrations of infantry that clashed head-on; and the central one from Ohio to Nebraska, with very wide plains that allowed a war of movement and fewer concentrations of men. The first move was up to the rebels who tried to quickly take over Washington DC with a lightning attack led by John Sedgwick in an attempt to immediately end the war. Waiting for him were Robert Lee's 100,000 men who had entrenched themselves along the Potomac: the rebels suffered catastrophic losses trying to cross the river and retreated to Maryland after a month of fighting. Their attempt to end the war early had failed and the initiative returned in Federal hands.

Both sides sent men to Maryland, convinced of the inevitability of an attack by the enemy. Aware of this tactical error, JEB Stuart proposed a new conduct of the war: Missouri was strongly divided by unionist and rebel loyalties and was on the verge of collapsing into civil war: if the Unionist army had entered the state it would have kept it in the federal camp and it would have had the perfect springboard for an Illinois invasion, which could have split the FSA in two. Breckenridge gave his assent and 200,000 men entered Missouri on their way to St. Louis in the spring of 1864, greeted by cheering civilians along the way. The Unionists noticed Stuart's advance too late but managed to prevent Illinois from being invaded thanks to the presence of Grant and 150,000 men in the state who stopped the Unionist aims.


Northern guns come under fire during the Battle of Hampstead

The most important clash of the War took place in 1866 at Hampstead in Maryland: Lee had by now pushed the rebels to Pennsylvania but Sherman, who had replaced Sedgwick after his death, had attracted about 1/3 of the Unionist army to the town where he planned to surround them. and annihilate them with his numerical superiority. When Lee learned of the danger his troops were in, he ordered the advance to be halted and reinforcements sent to the unit under attack. About 300,000 men fought in Hampstead, making it one of the largest battles ever fought to date, and the losses exceeded 80,000. The battle was inconclusive for both sides: Sherman had prevented Lee from entering Pennsylvania but had suffered such losses that a counterattack was impossible; Lee had been stopped and had used up most of his supplies to win the battle, making an advance north impossible at the moment.

Sensing the weakness of the union and the FSA both stuck in a meat grinder from the Atlantic to the great lakes, the Pacific states proclaimed their independence from the union in late 1866 by sending their national militias east to the uncolonized territories that they fell peacefully under nominal Pacific control as far as Utah, where the separatist armies stopped and assumed defensive positions. Unable to react as there were no men to send west, Breckenridge limited himself to recognizing the secession of the Pacific as a fact, persisting in putting an end to the Northern rebellion.

Losses and warfare were beginning to weigh on both sides that were depleted after four years of continuous warfare, consuming men and materials that were becoming scarcer. Worried that the riots against conscription in New York and Philadelphia could become a national phenomenon and permanently undermine the rebel war effort, Lincoln convinced Fremont to desist from the hard line and seek diplomatic contact with the Union which was experiencing a similar situation but from an economic point of view since its debts to the European powers had increased dramatically to finance the war and buy war material.

After the first modest diplomatic contacts between the sides, a real peace conference was reached, which was to be held in Washington DC in 1867, which was attended by representatives of the federal government and the secessionist states, those of the north and those of the west. During the conference, in the general sadness, the dissolution of what was once the United States of America into three separate entities was recognized: the American Republic to the north, the Republic of Pacifica to the west, and the Southern Confederation. After the conference, John C. Freemont called a constituent assembly in Philadelphia to give the new American Republic a new order. Privately he noted in his diary that "One day our descendants will finish the job"

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The division of America: the Republic of Pacifica in gold, the American Republic in blue and the Southern Confederation in gray
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Which states joined the FSA?
The northern ones: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachussets, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, California, Oregon and Idaho which is basically every northern state and every state where the Republicans triumphed in the 1862 midterm elections

In 1862, Tokugawa Yoshinobu became the 14th Shogun of Japan after weeks of political intrigue in the Edo court between the various branches of the Tokugawa family struggling to name a member for the role of Shogun. Iesada survived the cholera epidemic that spread among the population of Edo in 1858, allowing him to extend his reign until 1862, the year of his death.

The election of Yoshinobu in place of Shogun brought great change in the land of the rising sun: the new Shogun did not spend a day in Edo for the next four years, preferring to rule with a traveling court that moved throughout Japan, allowing Yoshinobu to get a clear idea of what Japan's problems were, but also by inviting foreign experts to help rationalize the administration of the shogunate.

The first reforms undertaken were the bureaucratic ones with the extension of the national administrative machine in an attempt to centralize even more the central power of Edo, trying to eclipse the emperor who, since the opening of Japan, had begun to play an active role in the national politics, shaking the foundations of the Shogun's power. Agricultural reforms and a principle of proto-industrialization, with the first railways and factories on the Kanto plain marked the beginning of Japan's modernization. Another sector that received numerous improvements was that of the armed forces, which were trained and equipped by the French and the Russians in the newly created Yokosuka concession from which the French started all trade with Japan.

The wave of social, economic and technological modernization did not come without its critics, however: the domains of Satsuma, Chosu and Tosa resented the Shogun for the modernization and opening of the nation, coalescing with the Emperor in following the doctrine of Sonnō jōi and starting attacks on foreigners in Japan. These attacks did nothing but anger more and more the great powers that, in the inability of the Shogun to protect them, intervened militarily to suppress the rebel dominions, whose end came with the bombing and occupation of Sasebo in 1864 which became a British concession.

The radical anti-Western factions were ousted from power but, after an absence of three years, they returned to power and also infiltrated the imperial court, forcing the fifteen-year-old Meiji Emperor to proclaim the imperial restoration. By 1868, two factions had formed within Japan: the imperial one made up of the southern dominions and the emperor with British support from Kagoshima; and allies of the Shogun, supported by the French and the Russians. Yoshinobu refused to accept the restoration proclamation and mobilized his forces.

The Shogun army immediately moved against Kyoto, the seat of imperial power, where they met the troops of Chosu and Satsuma waiting for them. Both armies were modernized, equipped with modern rifles, cannons and uniforms, with some irregular units armed in the traditional way. In the battle of Fushimi the Shogun troops outnumbered 3: 1 their enemies and, thanks to the modern equipment of the troops and the French military mission that had accompanied them quickly defeated the forces of the rebel dominions, taking Kyoto before the emperor could escape.

Yoshinobu forced the young Meiji Emperor to revoke the Restoration Proclamation, replacing it with the Kyoto Edict, written by Yoshinobu, which consecrated the Shogunate as Japan's form of government with the Emperor's blessing. This gave much legitimacy to the Shogun who now enjoyed the support of the emperor, depriving the southern dominions of any legitimacy in their opposition to the Shogun. Undeterred and receiving substantial British help, the Dominions sent their fleet to Osaka, shelling the city and sinking the four of Yoshinobu's steam frigates in the bay.

In response, the forces of the Shogun advanced to the castle of Hagi, where the Daimyo Mōri Motonori resided, besieging and conquering it thanks to the superiority of the French artillery supplied to the troops of the Shogun. The end of the Boshin War was the Battle of Kagoshima, the last stronghold of the Satsuma rebel forces. It was the largest battle of the war with 70,000 troops and about twenty Shogun ships clashing with 40,000 rebels and a small fleet comprising two battleships, delivered by the United States before the conflict began. The clash was fierce and lasted for a week and ended with the fall of the castle where the Daimyo had committed seppuku. The fall of Kagoshima marked the end of the Boshin War and the definitive consolidation of the Shogunate as Japan's form of government, now with imperial backing.

Edo was renamed Tokyo to indicate where the true power of the nation lay and the southern dominions were assimilated and placed under the care of the Shogun bureaucracy. The surviving rebels fled to the British concession of Sasebo, where they found refuge from the army that had begun to hunt them.
Tell me what do you think about this Boshin War and if it's plausible. I did some research on the topic but writing an alternate version of the war was kinda hard and I'm open to criticism on Japan too