In this country , it is good to kill an admiral from time to time

Is it me or are the enemies of France even more taken by "Victory Disease" than France? Incredible but sadly realist. As for the tension between Ottoman and Russia... Is there a parity in technological level and logistic or will we again see a poor showing from both sides?
 
Is it me or are the enemies of France even more taken by "Victory Disease" than France? Incredible but sadly realist. As for the tension between Ottoman and Russia... Is there a parity in technological level and logistic or will we again see a poor showing from both sides?
Yep. Of course, it can happen to everyone since the Great War was still a long slugging conflict which lasted for years, and though it was victory in the end...well, not everything went according to the plan.
The Last Carolinian-Floridian War, by comparison, was definitely a one-sided humiliation...and forced the realisation (which would have come sooner or later) that there's nowhere left to expand for Carolina alone, since they have missed the colonial conquests era.
The Russians have a technological edge...in theory. In practise, their military forces are so huge that most of the army has a very varied quality. The core of the troops most in favour with the Tsarina have tanks and planes, making them far better than the Ottomans elites. But they aren't that many of them, and the difference between the 'common' Russian troopers and the 'common' Ottoman soldier isn't exactly noticeable. Add to the fact the Ottomans are definitely on the defensive and the Russians have daunting logistical issues to overcome plus potential enemies everywhere...
 
Weak Alliances but Big Problems (Brazil 1910-1921)



There were nations at the end of the 1910s which wondered if their system of alliances were enough to discourage potential invaders.

The Empire of Brazil wasn’t among them.

As Emperor Pires and his ministers knew very well, their only ally was Russia, and Tsarina Anastasia had not signed this accord because she had a secret love for Brazilian culture and system of governance. No, the Russian traders sent by Moscow desired resources and a compliant and weak ally in the South American theatre.

Even if the Empire reigning over Eastern Europe and the immense Siberian tundra had not been directly impacted by the Brazilian break with the Entente, the betrayal of the alliance had not been forgotten from Saint Petersburg to Vladivostok. Russia had allied itself with Brazil, but as the 1910s passed, the Brazilians were left with no doubt that the soldiers and representatives of the Tsarina were considering them below the mud under their boots. This was not an alliance of equals; and well-informed locals doubted it was even an alliance in the first place. It definitely felt more like servility at the best of times. For the men and women who had decided the French economical domination was too harsh and survived the tumult of the civil war, this was indeed a bitter pill to swallow.

The protests stayed at the state of whispers for the better part of the 1910s. Not because the Brazilians had a deep and unconditional love for their new Emperor. No, the reason why the number of public strikes and large protests went down was because the new regime was tyrannical and ruled more and more with an iron fist at every opportunity to do so. The Russian alliance had not accomplished half of the goals it had promised to do on the original papers, but it had rebuilt a modest armament industry. No one in his right mind would make the mistake of assuming Brazil was a Great Power or able to stand on its own against the UPNG-led coalition, but for the purpose of enforcing order upon the Brazilian population, it was largely sufficient.

Several insurrections were attempted in the regions of Bahia and Minas Gerais; none were successful. The idealists dreaming of liberty and democracy could voice all they want, their slogans and proclamations failed to upturn the status quo. Against machine guns, armoured cars, and even a few Russian-licensed aircraft, the cells of revolutionaries were slaughtered as soon as they left their secret bases deep into the hinterlands. Many were relying on obsolete Granadan equipment and Peruvian supplies to survive in the first place.

For the longer the Empire continued to oppress its people, the more the libertarian ideas were forgotten by the Pires regime. The Imperial secret police was given more and more freeway into persecuting and removing the opposition, be it political, economical, or otherwise. Friends and family of the Generals and Ministers were given ownership of critical companies and the monopolies which went with them for ridiculously low sums. The middle-classes received more than their share of these extortions in all but name.

Not all of it was unjustified paranoia from the Brazilian authorities. By 1919, the proximity of Brazil to the Caribbean had made sure plenty of Floridian refugees had ended up on Brazilian soil. These survivors of the Jackson-styled era in general could be divided into two big categories: those who idolised strong men in charge of dictatorships, and those who were utterly disillusioned with it. Unfortunately for the men at the top, the latter far outnumbered the former, after the quick and humiliating fall of Florida to the Carolinians.

It was far from the only problem plaguing the nights of the men and the women working for the secret police. Aside from Floridian revanchists, the Brazilian Empire had also to contend with ‘Lincolnian’ warmongers, men who believed any and all nation had a duty to rise against the French Empire. Anarchist groups had also settled in the north of the country, profiting from the infamous weakness of the Brazilian Navy. The tides of opportunity brought Collectivists hunted on other continents too. White supremacists of South Africa tried to spread their ideology and beat black people when no one was looking in their direction.

The Brazilian political pot was boiling by 1920, and by then the reaction of Emperor Pires’ subordinates to every act of sabotage and discontent was to admit they hadn’t been hard enough in their repression of a certain category of malcontents.

The effectives of the secret police, the propaganda services, and the information intelligence agencies had long passed the ‘huge’ to go beyond ‘plethoric’, and Brazil was more and more looking like a South American version of the now defunct Directorate of Florida, the ‘Imperial’ replacing the ‘Director’.

For millions of people, it made little difference, since Emperor Pires had largely abandoned all his program of reforms, assuming he ever had one. Now the man behaved like a narcissist megalomaniac, and if there was something he learned from Floridian exiles, it was definitely how to improve his growing cult of personality. Children of the Emperor were given extravagant titles of royalty and enormous ‘princely gifts’ and ‘dowries’ right as the gap between rich and poor exploded.

Unlike many neighbouring nations, Brazil was painfully rebuilt from the ravages of the multi-sided civil war fought over two decades ago, but it didn’t really profit from it. There was too much of the nation’s wealth which was flowing into the budget of Emperor Pires’ Imperial accounts and the ‘pillars’ that were the secret police and the army.

As the 1920s began and a few insignificant rebellions were strangled before they could do more than negligible damage, a more important issue was on the Emperor’s desk. The ‘Treaty of Military and Economic Partnership’ signed with Russia was going to end in January 1922.

The Russians wanted to renew and expand it, needless to say. Moscow sent a large delegation, led by General Brusilov, a favourite of the Tsarina, to negotiate ten more years of ‘economical and military partnership’, and more if they could get away with it. It was a very profitable arrangement, after all...for Russia.

It was more of a large drain for Brazil, and the ministers grumbled. Yet it was also a defence pact which was enormously to the benefit of the Brazilian military, as no one at Rio doubted that if one of the two countries was attacked by hostile outside forces and would demand help from its ally, it wouldn’t be Moscow making this ‘request’. Everyone knew the Brazilian army had no sealift capacity anyway, so projection outside of South America required naval transports the Brazilian Navy didn’t have.

The Generals and Ministers were divided about continuing their alliance or not. Their absolutist sovereign was not so hesitant about the question. Pires I wanted the Russians gone yesterday. Part of the reason was the dangerous grasp the Russian military kept over his industrial war machine, but as the years of peace passed, the former General who had usurped power and become the tyrannical master of the Brazilians had genuinely convinced himself this alliance was unnecessary. Brazil army was strong, resolute, and loyal to him – the latter point being the most important, as every courtier and officer understood perfectly. No one had dared attacking him in the last decade, and who could really believe the Russians would send a full expeditionary force to South America to protect their interests?

Moreover, the Russian officers present at Rio had never given the Emperor and the key actors of his government the respect they deserved. It was better to wipe the board clean of the Tsarina’s agents. Pires had received recently pleas from the Drakan Empire, a nation in dire need of economic partners and who couldn’t dictate terms to Rio. The Russians could be taught a lesson by delaying and delaying negotiations, before giving them a lesser treaty which would give them the scraps of the previous accords.

Thus on March 6 1921, the alliance between the Brazilian and Russian Empires came to an end.

The next day, Emperor Pires I received in a grand ceremony the Drakan ambassador sent by Theodore Roosevelt.

Twenty-four hours later, the tyrant of Brazil was found dead in his bed, and the dagger buried in his heart indicated it was not of natural causes...
 
Oops?

More seriously, I hope the UPNG don't try to "use this opportunity" or all the neighbors of Brazil will plunge in the boiling pot. On the other hand, it might give enough incentive to the Brazilian to regroup together against the invader, doubtful but you never know.

Also, this is really bad PR for South Africa, nobody will care if they are innocent in this murder, they will be linked to it no matter what. I can imagine Roosevelt banging his head on his desk repeatedly in hope of forgetting this new mess by way of blissful unconsciousness.

Russia is still supremely arrogant and proud... Brazil wasn't really a good partner in military term but again in term of PR, it doesn't do them good. They might be accused of having murder Pires because he had dare refuse Russia whatever if it's true or not.
 
Yeah killing him was a bad PR for Russia , it's not going to give them back Brazil. I doubt the regime is gone afterall Pires had successors, but they probably won't have as much power as him.
 
Oops?

More seriously, I hope the UPNG don't try to "use this opportunity" or all the neighbors of Brazil will plunge in the boiling pot. On the other hand, it might give enough incentive to the Brazilian to regroup together against the invader, doubtful but you never know.

Also, this is really bad PR for South Africa, nobody will care if they are innocent in this murder, they will be linked to it no matter what. I can imagine Roosevelt banging his head on his desk repeatedly in hope of forgetting this new mess by way of blissful unconsciousness.

Russia is still supremely arrogant and proud... Brazil wasn't really a good partner in military term but again in term of PR, it doesn't do them good. They might be accused of having murder Pires because he had dare refuse Russia whatever if it's true or not.
Yes, oops.

Why the UPNG in particular? Given the current situation, anyone, including the Spanish, the Peruvians, or even the Floridians could invade and provoke a 'let's all take our pound of flesh from Brazil' scenario.
Though if it's the UPNG who jumps in, it's going to be bad for the Brazilians. Most of Emperor Pires' army, as said above, is mostly structured to keep their own population quiet. They can't exactly do that and train hard to counter an army far better equipped and trained than theirs.

It's not really that bad for the Drakans. I mean yes, they have lost a potential ally, but no one is going to accuse them of murdering the Emperor. The Brazilian ruler was about to join them in alliance. Even viewed from a Machiavellian perspective, there's absolutely no reason why they would assassinate the man who wanted the most to ally with them and forge an intolerant block of dictatorships.

Russia however...Russia assassinating the Emperor makes perfect sense, both from a foreign and Brazilian observer's perspective.


Yeah killing him was a bad PR for Russia , it's not going to give them back Brazil. I doubt the regime is gone afterall Pires had successors, but they probably won't have as much power as him.
I haven't say who committed the deed, have I? Be careful about assumptions...
But it's a guarantee that given the timing, people are going to suspect Russia anyway.
 
Though if it's the UPNG who jumps in, it's going to be bad for the Brazilians. Most of Emperor Pires' army, as said above, is mostly structured to keep their own population quiet. They can't exactly do that and train hard to counter an army far better equipped and trained than theirs.
Plus, if the army they need for populace control is now being mauled on the front lines, well, that gives the populace a chance to vent some anger.
 
The Succession of the Tyrant (Brazil 1921)



The death of Emperor Pires was met by explosions of joy in many Brazilian cities, though rapidly the military and secret police of the Brazilian Empire intervened to break these ‘encouragements to insurrection’ and ‘crimes of lèse-majesté’. Evidently, it didn’t help the popularity of the regime, but for a despotic system utterly divorced from what most of its citizens desired, it was not a headache. The assassination of their Emperor, on the other hand, this was something the Generals and Ministers could have done without. It tarnished their fake image of invincibility and omniscience, because after all if the most important head of the Empire could be murdered, everyone was vulnerable and could be toppled.

There was an obvious scapegoat for this debacle, and as the coronation ceremony for Pires’ Heir, Crown Prince Augusto, was prepared in haste, the investigators didn’t bother searching more than a few hours before piling a mountain of evidence on several of the Emperor’s mistresses, who were –obviously – to murder Pires I by Russian agents.

The general response was disbelief as nobody could believe it was something else than the Brazilian regime deciding to lash out on the perfect scapegoat.

Assuredly, the Russians were the party who had the most to gain from the removal of the Brazilian ruler...at least in theory. In practise, as people familiar with the excesses and the powerbase of the main figures of Rio knew, it wasn’t that clear-cut. Former Crown Prince, now Emperor Augusto, was very much his father’s son and had supported the new alliance with the Cape Republic.

If Emperor Pires I had been nicknamed ‘Tyrant’ by every class which didn’t benefit from his rule, Augusto I had already been called ‘little Tyrant’, or ‘Bloody Augusto’ for his usage of military force against any form of protest, be they violent or non-violent.

The Russians, being the most knowledgeable foreign party at Rio, would have clearly known assassinating the Emperor was an exercise of futility, since his successor was content to step in the shoes of tyranny and dictatorship. There was a light doubt nevertheless; was not Brusilov recently arrived and a favourite of the Tsarina? Maybe the Emperor’s murder had been approved by the Tsarina and the local Russian informants had not been included in the preparations.

But as Emperor Augusto I ejected most of the Russians present on Brazilian soil, nationalised foreign-owned armament industries and tore apart treaties in front of his most loyal subordinates for posterity, it appeared that if the murder was ordered by Russia, there had never been a contingency plan behind it in case it went wrong.

Dispersed into nothing bigger than company-strong forces and caught completely in the middle of a rotation cycle back to their motherland, the Russian soldiers were in no state to offer resistance.

They could, on the other hand, play the arsonists in their own factories and give away plenty of weapons to people who were absolutely not agents of insurgent cells.

Then they departed, many of them seizing a considerable percentage of the rebuilt Brazilian merchant marine in the process.

This obviously severely displeased the Drakan diplomats residing at Rio, which saw a potential ally lose a lot of its usefulness within a month. Because as strange as it was, the envoys of Theodore Roosevelt had indeed nothing to do with ordering these inflammatory moves: everything was the idea of Augusto I himself.

Naturally, the retaliation of Moscow was far from over. The gold and the other funds the Brazilian government had deposited in Russian banks or other financial establishments were seized. From the Pacific to the Mediterranean, lone Russian warships went on hunting the Brazilian-owned hulls and the goods transported inside them.

By the end of April 1921, the writing was on the wall: every Brazilian ship not operating in their coastal waters was lost, ‘missing’, or confiscated. The naval power of the Pires regime, pathetic compared to the one it enjoyed under Portuguese administration, had been destroyed once more.

This was the moment Prince Marcelo, Augusto’s young brother, made his entrance in politics. Until now, the third child of the deceased Emperor Pires had been a complete nonentity in the Brazilian Great Game, something his father and his eldest brother had deliberately encouraged by encouraging nasty habits like drinking heavily from sunset to dawn like they had done for the other child of the Princely trio, his eldest sister Rosalina.

Alas for Emperor Augusto I’s chief supporters, the army, the enforcers, and the various political leaders around him were not as united as they had pretended to be under his father. In mere two months, they had lost their alliance with Russia, the advantages which went with it, and though the treaty with the Drakan Empire was signed on April 4, the benefits for now were null and void – not because the South Africans were reneging on delivering promises, but no one could materialise a merchant marine from thin air in so little time.

Outside of the coastal provinces, the combined efforts of the army and the secret police were barely sufficient to keep order, and the prisons were reaching maximum capacity as the number of arrested ‘suspicious characters’ was outnumbering the numbering of available cells, forcing too often to release agitators and innocent indifferently as the time to properly investigate who was who was missing.

In fact, it was the moment the reputation for the Brazilian justice system and every part around it truly took a turn for the worse, as the different factions began to apply their own directives in the provinces they controlled independently of what the government was ordering.

All the while the army, so lavished under Emperor Pires I, began to experience its first budget decreases by the beginning of June 1921. With many Russian-owned armament centres emptied of their own specialists and the workers refusing to work for a pittance of what they earned before – the Russians had paid their manpower in Russian Imperial Roubles, worth far more than the Brazilian Real – and the first Cape instructors were not listened to when the Brazilian enforcers threatened everyone and everything, therefore prompting many people to exile themselves or join underground movements.

All the while Emperor Augusto I was making a priority of trying to hammer into subservience the restive ministers and key people who were acting with his brother Marcelo as mouthpiece.

The new ruler was about successful doing that as he was fighting the unofficial war against the Russians at sea.

Dissenters hastily spread Emperor Augusto, First of His Name, was more tyrannical than his father, which was a gross exaggeration. In reality, Augusto was exactly as arrogant as his father, but the long rule of oppression and fear imposed by his genitor had already crippled Brazil for a generation, and now the rebels and the population had had plenty of time to structure themselves to oppose the regime.

A solution needed to be found, as the economy, already the poorest of South America per inhabitant, continue its plunge towards the bottom of the precipice.

With the resolution his father was famed for – or so Augusto I believed – the new Emperor acted. When Prince Marcelo found himself commenting during an official reception how life was so better when the Russians were their allies, officers of the secret police arrested him.

At the same time, the crowned master of Brazil summoned the Russian ambassador – one of the few subjects of Moscow to not have returned to a colder climate – that the piratical actions of the Russian Navy were to cease immediately or else. From confiscating Brazilian ships, the cruisers were now intercepting even neutral ships and paying directly the captains of neutral nations to commerce anywhere save Brazilian harbours.

The ambassador bowed and told them that soon, the Emperor would have the answer of his government. The promise was not an empty diplomatic gesture.

On September 1 1921, the Russian Empire declared war to Brazil.

And Brazil imploded.
 
I didn't see that war coming. I don't think that's a good move, I mean they know they are isolated but they continue their aggressive moves? The anti-China alliance can be very easily modified in an anti-Russia alliance (which would be bigger I think) In their defense, they only declare war after Augusto made all the mistakes that would have led to a civil war. Still, if Brazil imploded, of course the rest of South America will enter the scene. Suddenly, I don't have high hopes for the future of Brazil.
By the way, are the Drakans also at war with Russia because of the treaty?

And how Russia is going to go to Brazil? I doubt they have the power projection to do that.
I don't think Russia have an high opinion of the Brazil's might, they probably think that a lone army division would be enough before using "local assets" for most of the work.
 
And how Russia is going to go to Brazil? I doubt they have the power projection to do that.
Normally, no, it wouldn't be a good move. A quick look at a map is enough to tell you how far the two Empires are from each other, and well...unlike France, Russia has no bases in the Caribbean to make the prospect of an invasion on the other side of the worlds possible.

I didn't see that war coming. I don't think that's a good move, I mean they know they are isolated but they continue their aggressive moves? The anti-China alliance can be very easily modified in an anti-Russia alliance (which would be bigger I think) In their defense, they only declare war after Augusto made all the mistakes that would have led to a civil war. Still, if Brazil imploded, of course the rest of South America will enter the scene. Suddenly, I don't have high hopes for the future of Brazil.
By the way, are the Drakans also at war with Russia because of the treaty?


I don't think Russia have an high opinion of the Brazil's might, they probably think that a lone army division would be enough before using "local assets" for most of the work.
It wouldn't be a very good move if Moscow seriously intended to send something like one hundred thousand soldiers in Brazil for sure.
Yes, the future of Brazil is...not exactly shiny and hopeful at that moment.
The Drakans have a mutual defence pact signed, so unless they want to come back on their word, yes they are at war with Russia...though they have little to fear in practise.
Unlike Brazil, they have a powerful 'brown-water' navy to defend their coast, and attacking them would have to be followed by a land invasion to truly do some damage to the Drakan nation.

And no, no one at Moscow has a very high opinion of Brazil's might, and it was before most of the Russian-owned industry stopped producing most of its weapon.
 
Is Spain gonna invade Brazil? This is a golden opportunity for them, and Spain, while evil, is still better than Brazil.
People do not invade for fun, my dear reader. They invade because it is in their own interest to do. At the moment, it's clear it is in the interest of Spain to have a neighbour to the north which isn't as military armed and tyrannical than this Empire of Brazil is. On the other hand, the current nation promises to be ruinous to occupy, has uncountable bands of armed insurgents waiting one opportunity to rise, and the local economy is already destroyed...
There are advantages to a change of regime, but there are also drawbacks.
 
Normally, no, it wouldn't be a good move.
... And abnormally? Is an alliance with the UPNG on the cards? After all, they also have China as a common enemy.

On the other hand, with 1) the Carolinas also an allied from the UPNG and rather antagonist to France and 2) a potential French-Chinese friendship, Russia could then be facing event more adversaries.
 
All Hail the Emperors (the Russian-Brazilian War 1921)



The first operation of the Russian Empire against the nation it had just declared war to was to organise the breakout of Prince Marcelo from prison, which was done on the first day of the hostilities.

Not that it had been an extraordinarily difficult battle to fight, mind you. While Emperor Augusto was exasperated by the rebellious attitude of his brother, Marcelo was his heir until he managed to find himself a wife worthy of his rank, a task which promised to be difficult as most of the European and American aristocracy refused to speak with him. As a result of this ‘courtesy’, the loud-mouthed Prince had been imprisoned in a very luxurious residence west of Belo Horizonte, though one well-guarded by hundreds of Imperial ‘protectors’.

Unfortunately for them, while the estimations of Russian personnel made by the Brazilian secret police were fairly adequate, General Brusilov, newly designated commander-in-chief of the war against the Empire of the deceased Pires I, had plenty of mercenaries and insurgent cells at his disposal, and many weapons to arm them with. The ‘Battle of the Palace’ didn’t last more than three hours, and saw the rout of the forces loyal to Augusto. Prince Marcelo disappeared from his ‘prison’, only to reappear at the end of September at Fortaleza, which became by default the capital of his new regime. And yes, it was better not to call him ‘Prince Marcelo’ anymore, it was ‘Emperor Marcelo the First of His Name’. The new sovereign officially repudiated the treaty of alliance signed with the Drakan Empire, renewed the alliance with the Russians, and denounced his eldest brother as a vile usurper.

Obviously, the trickle of South African veterans who were beginning to land on Brazilian soil didn’t care much about these proclamations. As far as they were concerned, Augusto I was the true Emperor, and his Empire was allied with theirs, end of the discussion.

Moreover, many of these men – and sometimes women – were not reluctant about crushing uppity insurgents, especially not when they were black-skinned. The Drakan Army was incredibly racist even by the standards set by Emperor Pires I, and the fact many Collectivist, Republican or Anarchist cells were entirely consisting of ‘potential slaves’ was not an obstacle to murder and torture as far as they were concerned. After killing tens of thousands of Malagasy men, women, and children, Brazil was the new hunting terrain where they were unleashed.

If the South Africans managed to help their Brazilian ‘allies’ restore some measure of order in the south, mainly around Rio and Belo Horizonte, the regime was fighting for its very survival in every province. The declaration of war from Russia was all the incitation potential rebels needed to rise and fight the Imperial troops.

All the while the Brazilian High Command and the Drakan commanders tried to guess where the Russian expeditionary forces would land – Theodore Roosevelt had declared war to Russia on September 7, an event which was treated as an afterthought by the court of Moscow.

Some predicted Tsarina Anastasia I would choose Rio to strike against, a final blow to decapitate the Imperial regime. Others thought the Russian legions would land at Fortaleza and Recife, linking up with their northern allies before descending south and conquering the country coastal province by coastal province.

They were, in fact, all wrong.

The Russians weren’t coming.

There were some token gestures from the sovereign of Russia. A squadron of Heavy Cruisers, some Destroyers, and a few transports were sent, totalising between five and seven thousand soldiers. But this was the sum of the Russian commitment from September to December 1921, and it was rapidly obvious to everyone that more wouldn’t come.

Russia intended to fight for Brazil with a cadre of experienced soldiers, but as far the struggle went, it would be done to the last drop of Brazilian blood.

Emperor Marcelo I didn’t complain. The rest of his court wasn’t as enthusiastic, needless to say.

Ironically, the Russian-backed monarch remained very popular. His disbanding of the secret police, his insistence colour of skin was not reflecting your social status, and his drinking contests were not seen in a bad light by a population used to the iron fist and unrestricted tyranny. ‘Emperor Marcelo’ was certainly a bit crazy and out of touch with reality, but his subjects could deal with that.

Since thousands of reformist heads and a lot of the administrators had fled northwards to escape persecution, ‘Marcelo’s Brazil’ was relatively well-governed, relatively tolerant, and people could eat at least two meals of a day without thinking this state of affairs wouldn’t last. This situation was a result of several trade accords signed between Russia, Carolinas, France, and even the UPNG, agreeing it was better to hurt the prestige of Emperor Augusto’s regime rather than those of the innocent civilians. It wasn’t a military help; few South American nations and other foreign parties wanted Russia to be fully in control of Imperial Brazil, but logisticians and administrators were sent to help the locals restore some measure of relative good governance in the cities and outside of it.

It was a very ‘relative’ prosperity in that the lifestyle would have certainly not been approved in any European nation in 1921, but for Brazilians who had never known anything save heavy taxes and censorship, suddenly being able to read a newspaper where the information wasn’t directly coming from a Department of Propaganda was a nice improvement. And as the Russian-trained Brazilians went on the offensive, their victories grew and soon, they controlled everything from Sao Luis to Recife, and the conquests in the hinterlands accelerated proportionally.

For Augusto I and his supporters, this was a reign which was bringing calamities day after day. His brother’s supporters and the Russians were in the north – where his pretence of control was exactly that, a pretence – but every group of insurgents and rebels was against him from the start.

To make it ‘better’, his Navy had tried to engage the Brazilian squadron and received a one-sided humiliation. The Imperial propaganda had tried to play the chord of the Russians being too afraid of Brazilian warriors to cross the Atlantic, but by the end of the year, it appeared obvious to everyone having a brain that the Russians needed no army to land. Brazil was at war with itself, and losing very badly this conflict.

Last but not least, Princess Rosalina, Augusto’s last sibling, chose the Christmas of 1921 to sail away and go to exile to the UPNG, where she would play a leading role in the exilic community of Brazilian exiles.

One might have believed the situation couldn’t be worse for the sovereign and master of all Brazil, but then no one had predicted 1921...
 
Strategic Dilemma (the Brazilian Civil War 1921-1922)



As the year of 1921 ended, the UPNG government found itself in a very delicate situation. They had expected a war between the Brazilian Imperials and the Russians, but while diplomatically this was exactly what happened, the reality on the ground was more Brazilians fighting Brazilians. There were a few Russian advisors in the main northern cities, but certainly not enough to sell a propaganda campaign about Europeans trying to carve apart one more colony on the soil of Southern America.

In other circumstances, it wouldn’t have stopped the UPNG from declaring war against one or several more factions of the Empire of Brazil. Russia was far, far away, and its formidable fleet couldn’t leave European shores without exposing itself to a counter-strike from enemies like the Ottoman Empire. The regime of Augusto I, still based in the city of Rio de Janeiro, was extremely weak and corrupt, not to mention associated with the slavers of the Cape. A declaration of war against a system of terror enforced by soldiers and a secret police was sure to be met in approval by the defenders of liberty and freedom everywhere.

The problem, of course, was that the Granadans also knew they couldn’t afford to declare war. As tempting as Brazil was to be annexed as one more conquest, moving south of the Amazon or eastwards towards the more populated cities of the Empire was sure to trigger a severe reaction from the French and the Spanish amongst other nations. It was a poorly kept secret the French didn’t like at all the reality of a UPNG-owned Panama Canal; attempting to overreach would certainly see squadrons of aircraft and cruisers move in direction of Panama. The canal had been fortified in the last years, but would it be enough against the French Navy and potentially hundreds of thousands of soldiers? No one could give a positive answer without sounding overconfident.

At the same time, the UPNG couldn’t let the Russians play their games eternally. Past the dreams of conquest, the sad truth was that this unanticipated Brazilian War was creating an awful amount of chaos, and with disorder and anarchy the number of refugees exploded out of control. Princess Rosalina was the most famous – or infamous, depending your opinion on the line of Emperor Pires – refugee to demand asylum and would be remembered as a patron of the arts, but there were thousands more men, women, and children fleeing the collapse of Imperial Brazil as insurgents activity was everywhere and security couldn’t be enforced anywhere save the coastal cities.

The most powerful republic of South America wanted to intervene, if only to stop this flow of refugees. Yet at the same time it didn’t dare to, and not just because of the diplomatic positions of the French Empire. Half a world away, the Chinese Empire’s fleet was commissioning the last warships of its first modern naval program. While its sailors were deemed inexperienced and taking flawed doctrines from third-tier naval powers, the number of battleships alone was enough to give any Admiral or politician pause. The Californian fleet couldn’t guarantee the security of Taiwan alone.

And while partial mobilisation would sometimes be considered sufficient to raise an army capable to defeat another country militarily, this state of affairs was only realistic as long when the enemy was neither France nor China.

In the mean time, the situation in the ‘Brazilian disaster zone’ continued to deteriorate. On January 1 1902, an anarchist cell tried to assassinate Emperor Augusto I. ‘The Little Tyrant of Rio’, like several newspapers had taken to call him, escaped unhurt, and the repression – led by Drakan soldiers – was particularly ferocious and ruthless.

Naturally, it didn’t do much to improve his popularity among his subjects. The men and the women of the poorest classes had already been vigorously incited to subscribe to the Imperial bonds, seen their homes raided when they were suspected to hide ‘subversive literature’ and other illegal documents.

But this time, it was too much. Dictatorship the people had endured for decades, under the threat of ‘their’ army’s guns. These foreigners and the new killers who imposed more and more humiliations and taxes who had recently landed? They couldn’t be trusted, not even when it came to mere survival? When the neighbours in the street could be shot just because they were of a colour of skin the ‘garrison’ disliked, it was clear everyone would sooner or later be on the purge lists of Augusto I.

The son of Emperor Pires I himself encouraged this view, saying he hated the black colour – in fact he was speaking about the anarchist symbols and flags – which were black too – but after years of dictatorships and odious methods, the Brazilians were hardly in the mood to analyse for several months the nuances of Imperial speeches.

By January 10, Belo Horizonte was hoisting the flags of rebellion. Two days later, the first violent actions spread in the slums of Rio. Collectivists, Anarchists, Republicans, Russian agents, volunteers of Liberty brigades, and more came out of the woods and their hideouts to participate in the toppling of the tyrant. Desertions in the ranks of the Brazilian Army, however, remained proportionally low, the soldiers remaining well-fed, and the secret police officers were utterly convinced their chances were to prove their undying loyalty to Augusto I. Given how much blood they had on their hands, they may very well be right, not that their victims and opposition cared about that.

Rio and the nearby coastal garrisons contained and even repelled the rebel offensives. But if the goal was to convince other nations Brazil remained strong enough to stand against a good old-fashioned army, it was a failure.

On January 27, the Spanish Empire declared war to Augusto I, proclaiming his brother Marcelo I was the rightful Emperor. Proof of the disarray Imperial Brazil was finding itself into, the twenty thousand men in Spanish uniforms crossed the frontier without a shot being fired.

Back into the UPNG, the Granadan politicians, after having failed to convince Princess Rosalina to try her luck as Empress of Brazil, consoled themselves that now the outcome was decided. With the Russian-backed soldiers on the north and the Spanish to the south, Augusto I’s cause was doomed and soon peace would return to South America.

They were right about the first point, but not about the second.

For 1922 was the last year of peace the world – save Brazil – would enjoy for a while. Twenty years about the Great War, humanity had returned once again at the edge of the precipice...
 
Ah so Brazil was the equivalent of the IOTL Spanish Civil War with every political ideology there is trying to have the upper hand and the 2 main protagonists supported by external powers (here Russia and Drakka).

And the Chinese fleet is ready. A surprise attack on Taiwan just went up a lot as one of the possible starting shot of a second World War.
 
It feels like everyone is ready for another round of blood & tears but no one seems to know from where it will come. Worst, Antony make it seems like Peace will be forgotten for a long while, I suppose it could mean that it will be numerous conflicts not really related except in the "one of our enemy is busy, let's go after our other enemy" or "Our enemy is attacking someone, that's a good opportunity to attack him in his back" kind... A pity France is too big to be ignored or it would be the perfect moment to play the neutral bank of all these numerous conflict to come, it is the best way to weaken your opponent without the blood of your people.

As for the catalyst, I bet on an accident between Serbia and Greece (Yeah, I know than betting on the Balkans to burn is cheating).
 
The Spanish are coming (Brazil 1922)



On January 29, an UPNG General testified before his own Congress that in his opinion, the Holy Spanish Empire was in for long dragged out conflict in Brazilian lands. His arguments, once summed up, could be divided in two categories: first, that the Brazilians would rally around their Emperor against a foreign invasion, second, that the Spanish had little support among the population.

These words would be largely mocked afterwards. For if the latter point was in theory true, the former completely little the Granadan officer understood the civil war being fought. The report failed to understand how hated Augusto I’s regime had become in the last months.

The Brazilian insurgents and their foreign sponsors wanted the ‘Emperor’ dead, and they weren’t shy about the methods leading to it. The first assassination against Augusto which had led to remove every restriction upon the Drakan methods was only the first of a long series. Car bombs, snipers on the roof of buildings, poison, daggers...everything was attempted. Soon, Augusto I earned the dubious distinction of being the chief state against which the highest number of assassinations had been directed against.

That he was still alive could be attributed to the excellent training of his bodyguards and his ‘Imperial Guard’ – a duty many men paid with their very lives. Naturally, with every attempt, Augusto retreated further from court life and his paranoia crises gained in intensity and severity, though the man’s panic was perfectly natural – was it really paranoia anymore when everyone save a few rare chosen were trying to kill you?

The Imperial Palace, already a fortress in its own right, gained a few more walls and a lot of additional defences and redoubts, and the Emperor would, save in two occasions, not be seen outside of it anymore. All orders and boisterous propaganda were made by radio or movies distributed by his ministers.

As one might imagine, this method of leadership was outright catastrophic for the ‘Augustinian’ war effort. While the Rio authorities tried to fight the uncountable terror bombers and the other insurgents, the Spanish army was advancing unopposed. And when it met opposition, it was a slaughter of Brazilian regulars.

In a very ironic way, the Granadan opinion that the Spanish troops weren’t as good as the Brazilians was not completely incorrect; as long of course as one took for granted the ‘official’ information on the Brazilian military machine and believed Madrid had left its colony’s army in a state of obsolescence. But the Spanish Generals had begun modest reforms in the last ten years, beginning with a mechanised supply chain and some new cannons. The rifles had been replaced by newer models too. Overall, the expeditionary forces sent from Europe for the occasion and the South American garrisons were well-motivated and correctly led, the lessons of the Great War remembered.

The Brazilians ‘Augustinians’, on the other hand, were an army without the support of the country they believed they had the right to rule, a caste completely cut off from reality, and one which had reached the breaking point by 1921. On urban or non-urban grounds, the result was properly devastating. Aside from a few skirmishes, the ‘legitimate army’ was decisively defeated, routed, and broken.

By the end of February, Rio was encircled, and if the final assault wasn’t given, it was because ‘battleship guns’ – the battleships had never been built, but the guns were – were emplaced to protect Augustus’ capital.

It was the beginning of the end of Imperial Brazil.

On March 4, to no one’s surprise, the legendary nights of debauchery organised by Emperor Marcelo I led to his death – his courtiers tried to cover the affair, but the rumour soon spread one of his drunken celebrations had led him to drown in his bath – the doctors in charge of his case would comment a decade later the Emperor had more alcohol than blood when he perished.

Fortunately, Marcelo, both as Prince and Emperor, had not been shy of gallant company, and had a respectable number of sons and daughters to succeed him. The fact that all of them would need a long, long regency was perfect as Spain, Russia, France, and other countries were concerned.

A lot of insurgents, especially the Anarchists and the Collectivists, feeling the wind was blowing, began to withdraw their support and prepare for the continuation of the struggle. Their fears were totally vindicated when the Spanish army engaged them in the streets of Belo Horizonte. Madrid could tolerate Republicans and Monarchists of a certain sort on their frontier. But these rebel groups? No.

The Russians and the ‘Marcelo loyalists’ followed the same logic when it came to the Drakan regiments present on their soil. The South Africans had made themselves very unwelcome, and the ‘Snake slavers’ were scapegoats worth their price in gold. Marching south from Recife, the coalition executed every Drakan soldier they could put their hands upon. The men sent by Emperor Roosevelt, for all their brutality and long war experience, were too outnumbered to reverse the tide, and began a large strategic retreat. On March 15, Theodore Roosevelt officially recognised it an ocean away: the Brazil they had allied themselves to was dying, and there was no saving it. The priority was now to save the soldiers and take with them as much industry and raw resources as they could. Given the urgency of the situation and the numerous heavy squadrons sailing closer to Rio – some flying French flags – the ‘relocation efforts’ were quite limited. The Drakan Empire saved over ninety percent of its remaining veterans at the cost of one transport and two destroyer-sized warships.

But for Augusto I, fallen Emperor of Brazil, there was no escape – though it had to be said, shooting the Drakan ambassador while agonising him of insults like ‘treacherous snake’ and ‘nigger-lover’ had not helped his case. The Spanish Navy had its first squadrons blockading Rio by March 17, and in the following days other squadrons would join them.

The last Emperor of Brazil tried to make another splendid speech inciting his men to a glorious – and bloody – last stand, but this time the steel-clad loyalty of the inner regime wasn’t strong enough to withstand the blows of the last month. Augusto I died during his dinner ‘choking on his food’, and the Imperial capital formally surrendered to the Spanish without having endured the problems which come with the violent capture of a city.

On March 26, the Brazilian Civil War officially ended, though of course in practise, low-level violence would continue for several months before several rebels and Imperial deserters were decimated and forced to surrender.

Brazil was left a field of ruins by this disaster. A point many leaders completely missed, believing nothing of the sort could happen to them...
 
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