Friday 8th May, 2015
“We now turn to our tame psephologist, John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University for an assessment of the most recent result.” said Dimbleby, the camera panning over to another part of the studio. “Whilst the polls have suggested losses for the Socialists and gains for the Greens, it appears that the opposition grouping is also experiencing some losses.”
“Yes, but this isn’t entirely surprising. The assemblies in Fiji and Cameroon are currently run by centre-right coalitions in the middle of their terms, admittedly with backing from other parties, so it is natural to see incumbents being hit in this way. British Somaliland is currently run by a grand coalition of centre-left and centre-right, which also helps to explain why both of those parties are being hit, with the opposition centrists being the biggest beneficiary here.”
“Now, back to Emily for a few more results from the African constituencies.” said Dimbleby’s voice.
Panning over again, we see the massive screen running through French Equatorial Africa one constituency at a time.
“First, let’s have a look at France’s Congo province with its 9 seats. The Socialists have lost two of their four seats, with gains by the Republicans and the non-aligned Freedom Party, who are now at two seats and one seat respectively. No change for the Liberal Centre Party, the Green Party, the National Autonomy Movement and the Radical Worker’s Movement, at one seat each.
“Moving on to Ubangi-Chari, the only other province in the region which is a single constituency, this time with 10 seats. The Socialists continue their slide, losing one of their three seats from 2010, this time with a Green gain. No change for the Republicans, with three seats, and one each for the Liberal Centre Party, the Radical Worker’s Movement and the National Renewal Party, with the independent René Kolinga also holding onto his seat.
“Moving further north, the three constituencies of Cameroon, each of which has seven seats, and also identical results in terms of seats won by party, if not all in the same order. The Socialists and Republicans have both lost one seat in each constituency, now at six and three seats between them, whilst the unaligned One Cameroon have kept all three of their seats. The first and third districts have seen one gain each by the Worker’s Party, and the second district by the Liberal Centre Party. Therefore, the centrists, greens, left and un-aligned groups all now have three seats each across Cameroon.
“Finally, we have the three constituencies of Chad, which also have seven seats each. The second district sees no change from 2010, with 3 seats for the Socialists, one for the Liberal Centre Party, one for the Democratic Workers’ Party, one for the right-leaning Islamic Solidarity, and one for the un-aligned Freedom and Justice Party. The other two districts have identical results, with losses for the Socialists, now down from 6 seats in total to 4 seats, and the FJP losing both their seats. The Republicans, Democratic Workers’ Party and Islamic Solidarity have held their two seats apiece, whilst the Greens and the Movement for Chad have both gained two seats.”
“We now have some new guests, who will be joining us for the next hour or so.” said Dimbleby. “We have Geneviève Arnaud, a Socialist MP for the Rhône région, James Alexander, one of the two Conservative MPs for Grampian, and Lord Edward Langford, a Liberal peer in the House of Lords. Firstly, Geneviève, this is a terrible night for the mainstream left…”
“Yes, but not as much as many claimed. We are still aiming to remain in government, and work to regain as much support as possible.”
“Once again, the Socialists have proved that they are out of touch with the electorate and with reality.” interjected Alexander. “These are the worst results for the centre-left in a generation, and they are still desperately trying to cling on to government.”
“Yes, but the centre-right parties aren’t gaining much support either.” added Dimbleby, trying to marshal the assembled politicians as best as possible.
“They’ve barely gained more seats than they have lost.” said Lord Langford. “The opposition hasn’t demonstrated to the electorate that they are a suitable alternative.”
“Indeed, whilst your grouping seems to be defying convention and making gains.” said Dimbleby.
“It is somewhat surprising that the traditional recipients of support as its swings away from the centre-left, the centre-right and the hard left, aren’t gaining as much as they have in the past.” added Nick Robinson. “The small parties have made gains, but by far the biggest are the Green parties. The polls, whilst indicating a ‘Green Surge’, seem to have underestimated it.”
“Indeed, and we’ll see by just how when we have all of the results.” said Dimbleby. “Now we’ll go back to Emily for some more results.”
As the camera pans over, we see the screen showing West Africa and the western Mediterranean.
“Thank you David. We have the first result from Europe, for Gibraltar and Malta. Only one seat up for grabs here, held on by the Labour Party, though with a small swing to the Liberals of 1.7%. Next we have Gambia, which has no change – one seat each for Labour, Liberal, Conservative and Democratic Socialist parties.
“Moving on to French West Africa, firstly we have Dahomey, which is divided into three constituencies of seven seats each. The first district sees a loss for the Republicans this time, now down to one seat from two, gained by the Greens. The Socialists hold on to both of their seats, and the Radical Liberal Party, Worker’s Party and the unaligned Independent Left have holds, with one each.
“The second and third districts have identical seat results, but with different gains. The Socialists have lost one of their two seats in both, gained by the Radical Liberal Party in the second district, and by the Greens in the third. The Republicans hold on to all their seats – with two each – and one seat each per district for Radical Liberals, Greens, Worker’s Party and Independent Left.
“Finally, we move on to French Guinea. There are two constituencies of 9 seats each. The Socialists have lost one seat in both, in both cases gained by the Greens. No change elsewhere, with the same results in both districts for the Republicans with 3 each; and the Radical Liberals, Greens and Worker’s Party with 1 each. The Socialists now have two seats in the first district, and three in the second, with the Guinean National Party having the final seat in the first district.”
“As we digest these results, we’ll turn to Jeremy for some background to the results of this election.”
The camera pans away from the main desk, with its red trim and transparent top festooned with laptops, towards the big green-screen cubicle containing Jeremy Vine. He is standing on top of a map of the world – the Federation itself is in white, carved into regions by black lines, whilst the rest of the land is in a dark grey. Suddenly, the white areas all turn different colours.
“Thank you David. You’ll notice the map I’m standing on is highlighted in different colours, representing the party groupings that gained most votes in the 2010 Federal elections in the respective constituencies. Red for the Socialists, blue for the Conservatives, dark red for the Left and orange for the Right.”
We see several areas are now red and blue, with British Guiana in dark red and Northern Ireland in orange.
“Of course, we’re not even a quarter of the way through the declarations yet, but there are a few changes already apparent. If we zoom in to the Indian Ocean, you can see that the Comoros has now changed from bright red to dark red, as has Mauritius and Seychelles. Also if we move on to central Africa, Gabon has gone from red to blue, as has Ubangi-Chari.
“Finally, as we move north, to western Africa, we can see that the Gambia is now mustard coloured, indicating that the Liberals are now in first place here, whilst the second and third districts of Dahomey have turned from red to blue, the first district holding onto its red colour. Expect this map to have several more colour changes as the night progresses.”
“Thank you Jeremy. Now back to Emily for the next set of results.”
Once again, the screen shows West Africa, but a little further westwards.
“First we have Sierra Leone, which is a single constituency of 13 seats. The Labour Party now has 5 seats, having lost one seat to the Greens, now on 1. No change for the other parties; the Conservatives have 3, the Leonese National Movement has 2 and the Liberals and Socialist Worker’s Party both have 1 each.
“Next we have Senegal, divided into three districts, one with 10 seats, and two with 9. The Socialist Party has lost one seat in each constituency, down now to 3 for each district from 4; the Greens once again the recipients here, now on one seat per district. No change for the other parties, with the Republicans on 2 seats per district, the Radical Liberals, Worker’s Party and Senegalese National Unity having 1 each per district, and the unaligned Independent Senegalese Party holding the final seat in the first district.
“Upper Volta is divided into three districts, two having 12 seats, and the third having 11. The Socialists have lost one seat in the first and second district, down to 3 each, whilst holding all 3 of their seats in the third district. The Republicans have gained one seat in the second district, bringing their total to 4 each. No change for the Radical Liberals, Socialist Democratic Party, the Volta People’s Union or the United Independent Front, with 1 seat each per district. The Greens succeeded in gaining one seat in the second district, bringing them to 1 seat per district.
“Finally we have Togo, which is a single constituency of 15 seats. The Socialists have lost two seats, bringing them down to 4. No change for the Republicans or the Liberal Centre Party, at 4 and 1 respectively. Similarly, no change for the Togolese National Party, with 2 seats, and the independent El-Hadj Abbass holding his seat. Both the Greens and Worker’s Union have gained one seat each, bringing them to 1 and 2 respectively.”
At the bottom of the screen, the banner for the political groups reads like so:
Socialist: 65 (-26)
Liberal: 26 (+5)
Conservative: 56 (-4)
Green: 24 (+21)
Left: 27 (+1)
Right: 3 (-)
Autonomist: 24 (+4)
Other: 17 (-)
242 out of 700 seats declared. 35 out of 87 constituencies declared.