how would American history go if the south didnt secede, im curious what you all think

if, the south refused to secede and remain in the united states. Meaning their representation and power still effects both chambers meaning republicans cant just pass or do what ever they please. Meaning no civil war that the south loses, resulting in northern occupation of the south and able to strongarm and force southern states to pass the 13th and 14th amendments and ratify them. How would the 1860s, 1870s and 1880s, on to the 20th century go, or how do you all think it would go
 
I do not see how the 13th and 14th would pass without the civil war in the period Abraham Lincoln could be in office.
I think there would be no pledge of allegiance in American schools.
American merchant shipping would continue to dominate world trade with the losses of the American civil war.
It could slow the devolvement of submarines with the example of the CSS Hunley to inspire John Philp Holland.
Iron Clads might be delayed too.
 
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I mean the question in these kind of things, is what happens instead? What prevents it? And then how does this play out?

The tensions won't just go away, so do you still have the attempt to balance slave and free states in the Union?

Mexico won't go away so do you have some president decide to go adventuring there again? Support for "breakaway" states, Sonoma, Chihuahua, or Yucatan?

Spain won't go away, so Cuba continues to have crises. Will they intervene?

Best regards
Jon
 
I mean the question in these kind of things, is what happens instead? What prevents it? And then how does this play out?

The tensions won't just go away, so do you still have the attempt to balance slave and free states in the Union?

Mexico won't go away so do you have some president decide to go adventuring there again? Support for "breakaway" states, Sonoma, Chihuahua, or Yucatan?

Spain won't go away, so Cuba continues to have crises. Will they intervene?

Best regards
Jon
indeed.
There are still ongoing disputes over other things like tariffs, free soil and the amount of money being spent on internal improvements mostly in the northern states.
There are ongoing efforts by abolitionists and the underground railway.
It is going to be intresting to see Abraham Lincoln's new deal economic policies in peacetime.
 
It is going to be intresting to see Abraham Lincoln's new deal economic policies in peacetime
Err.... no Civil War means Lincoln is never elected, sure.

The US remains the dysfunctional mess it was in the 50s, with neither side able to enact much legislation. Transcontinental rail waits for 5 years or more, and when it does happen, there are two lines, northern and southern, to balance regional factions. Lincoln loses a bundle on his Council Bluffs properties, as he won't be able to push OTL's central line through.

A northern route will be WAY too close to the 49th parallel for the comfort of politicians in *Ottawa and London.
(Yes, Bytown is unlikely to be the capital.)
 
Err.... no Civil War means Lincoln is never elected, sure.

The US remains the dysfunctional mess it was in the 50s, with neither side able to enact much legislation. Transcontinental rail waits for 5 years or more, and when it does happen, there are two lines, northern and southern, to balance regional factions. Lincoln loses a bundle on his Council Bluffs properties, as he won't be able to push OTL's central line through.

A northern route will be WAY too close to the 49th parallel for the comfort of politicians in *Ottawa and London.
(Yes, Bytown is unlikely to be the capital.)
No president Grant to clean corruption in the civil service.
The price of cotton could have a big drop as there was a lot of speculation about cotton and stockpiling of it in the UK in the expectation of a war that does not happen.
This could lead to a drop in the price of slaves too.
The USA does not have the level of damage and death it had otl.
There still could be a war over Mexico and the French involvement there.
The argument for the British to compensate the US for building ships for the CSA will not happen.
 
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Could end up with Northern secession, if a followup to Dred Scott says states can't prevent slavery.
That would mean the northern states losing control of the Mississippi river and I cannot see them wanting to do that.
The cash crops in the southern states were big export earners and I cannot see the northern states wanting to lose that either.
the big exports were
cotton, tobacco, furs, skins, salt meat, flaxseed, rice, tar, turpentine, and pitch.
a lot of those came from the southern states.
 
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This is one of those questions in which the how and the why matter. A timeline in which the secession convention in South Carolina fails is different than one in which a unified Democratic ticket prevails in 1860, and these are in turn different from a timeline in which the civil war is avoided some other way such as Virginia leading a manumission push from the 1830's or Kansas not happening or going differently. Or, is the Crittenden Amendment adopted and that forestalls the war?
 
That would mean fugitive slave laws go unenforced. South position in Congress would continue to weaken. Federal Government likely become weaker, and small scale bloodletting continue. Fugitive slave catcher would clash with local sheriffs. Then entire border states could become "bloody Kansas" with raid and counter raid.
 
That would mean fugitive slave laws go unenforced. South position in Congress would continue to weaken. Federal Government likely become weaker, and small scale bloodletting continue. Fugitive slave catcher would clash with local sheriffs. Then entire border states could become "bloody Kansas" with raid and counter raid.
sooner or later photo id will be required to prove the person they are looking for is the slave they claim him to be.
Slave catchers were not fussy about if the person was a runway slave or not.
Slave owners might like the photo id to make sure others do not steal their slaves.
 
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sooner or later photo id will be required to prove the person they are looking for and the slave they claim him to be.
Slave catchers were not fussy about if the person was a runway slave or not.
By the time photography catches on enough for Photo ID to be a thing, slavery is likely gone anyway.
 
I do not see how the 13th and 14th would pass without the civil war in the period Abraham Lincoln could be in office.
I think there would be no pledge of allegiance in American schools.
American merchant shipping would continue to dominate world trade with the losses of the American civil war.
It could slow the devolvement of submarines with the example of the CSS Hunley to inspire John Philp Holland.
Iron Clads might be delayed too.
I can't comment on your first, second and fourth points because I don't have the knowledge, but I question the third and fifth.
American merchant shipping wouldn't 'dominate world trade' as about half of ocean going tonnage in the mid 19th century was British flagged (wiki link); I do agree that USA-flagged ships would be a larger proportion of the rest than OTL though.
Regarding Ironclads, the first ironclad was the French Gloire which was launched in 1859 followed the next year by HMS Warrior, the first ocean-going ironclad; I do agree though that the lack of the battles in the ACW might, however, delay the adoption of ironclads by other navies, due to the lack of battle evidence.
 
The South conquers Mexico and asks for concessions on labor and gets them claiming Mexico is a territory. Many of the Mexicans are little more than bonded servants. There are incursions into Canada and Toronto becomes a territory of the United States. There is a kind of legal maneuver with the conquest of Mexico, where more rights are given to southern African Americans creating a bonded cast different than a complete slave society. With the introduction of mechanization slavery becomes an inefficient institution and many African Americans are freed into a sharecropping type situation. Slavery is becoming more of a social institution than an economic activity. It will take a social revolution to end slavery as it is not practical financially. Increasingly, the north is becoming more competitive with salaried employees and automation.
 
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