How does Japan respond to losing the Russo-Japanese war?

IOTL, Russia losing the RJW almost caused a successful revolution. Also, despite Japan winning the RJW, it caused social unrest in the country and significant financial troubles.

If Japan loses the RJW, how does Japanese society respond? Would there be a revolution like there was in Russia IOTL? How does this change Japanese politics, and ultimately does this forever take Japan off their course of Imperialism that they ended up taking IOTL?
 
It will be important how the loss happens it needs to be a way it can't just be spun as "The American/European peace negotiations cheated us out of victory."

Will they be upset with the British?
A feeling Britain should have helped more even if the alliance didn't technically trigger, or should have declared war once Russia attacked British ships.
 
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In the 1900s, there was a growing leftist movement in Japan, which the government tried to keep a lid on. A loss in the Russo-Japanese War would cause an upsurge of support for socialism and anarchism, among other ideas. There would be protests against the Imperial regime, which to the conservatives, would be almost unthinkable, and they would crack down on the revolutionaries hard.

Would there be a revolution like Russia's 1905 Revolution? I don't think so. Unlike Russia before 1905, Japan had the appearance of a modern, democratic state in the form of the Meiji Constitution, which established the bicameral Imperial Diet, so if there is an attempted revolution, it would be marked by calls to overthrow the Imperial monarchy, which again, would be unthinkable to the conservatives.

I would predict that the authoritarian state that we saw from OTL's 1925-1945 would come early in the form of the early establishment of the Thought Police, which in OTL, developed slowly into an authoritarian organ tasked with cracking down on ideological threats to Japan's security.

Expect the military to want a bigger say in how the government's run, as well. So, far from pushing Japan away from imperialism, we may've just brought it forward to the 1900s-1910s.
 
Expect the military to want a bigger say in how the government's run, as well. So, far from pushing Japan away from imperialism, we may've just brought it forward to the 1900s-1910s.
So, WWII, actually as WWI? There would be an interesting timeline! Wonder how that would play out? France, the UK, and Imperial Russia, vs Germany, Austro-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire. Italy (eventually) on the WWI Entente/WWII Allied side, and The Ottomans on the WWI Alliance/WWII Axis side, instead of neutral? This time, though, Japan and Russia actually come to serious) blows? China gets left out? The US adopts a "Germany first" policy? Japan can't attack Pearl Harbor...but maybe the Philippines, instead? Throw in two world wars at once, plus the Russian Revolution? The Ultimate Clusterfuck.

Well, well, well...
 
Yeah I don’t get why people here keep saying losing to Russia japan will automatically become less war mongering when it can lead to an even worse military rule
 
Yeah I don’t get why people here keep saying losing to Russia japan will automatically become less war mongering when it can lead to an even worse military rule

If I had to guess, they don't understand the extent to which the military had a influence on the government even before World War I. The military's role in ensuring the security of the state was written into the Japanese constitution from the very start. The military could literally cause the Cabinet to collapse just by walking out of the room.

The only way you can stop Japan being a war-mongering state is if the Emperor has the strength and the will to convene the Diet to alter the Constitution to eliminate that provision. In the aftermath of not just a failed war against the Russians, but an attempted revolution by leftist elements, that was certainly not going to happen.
 
If I had to guess, they don't understand the extent to which the military had a influence on the government even before World War I. The military's role in ensuring the security of the state was written into the Japanese constitution from the very start. The military could literally cause the Cabinet to collapse just by walking out of the room.

The only way you can stop Japan being a war-mongering state is if the Emperor has the strength and the will to convene the Diet to alter the Constitution to eliminate that provision. In the aftermath of not just a failed war against the Russians, but an attempted revolution by leftist elements, that was certainly not going to happen.
Totally agree with you on all points. People seem to underestimate the sheer power the army and navy have over japan government and the cabinet itself. Just by walking out the government could not function. And that’s by design from one of the genros oligarch whom really distrust democracy.It also really does not helped that the democratic government is corrupt as fuck and mishandle the Kanto earthquake aftermath which badly hurt confidence in the japan diet.

To truly stop japan militarism have the Meiji constitution rewrite from the start is the best I think.
 
To truly stop japan militarism have the Meiji constitution rewrite from the start is the best I think.

Easier said than done. The modern Japanese state was brought about through a civil war between samurai (the Boshin War). With both the Army and Navy claiming descent from those samurai, they're not going to accept being excluded from the government, just so the peasants can have a democracy resembling the UK or the USA.
 
Will they be upset with the British?
A feeling Britain should have helped more even if the alliance didn't technically trigger, or should have declared war once Russia attacked British ships.
Probably. If the naval battles are tight the British will be blamed.

Japan was going to buy Swiftsure and Triumph but the British bought them instead will be the narrative.

The real story being that the Japanese pulled out of negotiations to buy them. The Russians were going to buy them so the British blocked the sale and bought them. Japan then offered to buy them but as the British had blocked Russia buying them they felt that they had to decline to sell to Japan.

If the story is spread without the Japanese pulling out and without the British blocking Russian in the middle it's looks like great anti British propaganda in Japan.
 
How bad of a loss are we talking? Becuse Russias in Manchuria is one thing but ejecting japan from Korea would almost certainly be a crippling blow to the credibility of the army in the military pecking order, to which I would expect the navy to become the dominant player in the aftermath in terms of government influance from the military.
 
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How bad of a loss are we talking? Becuse Russias in Manchuria is one thing but ejecting japan from Korea would almost certainly be a crippling blow to the credibility of the army in the military pecking order, to which I would expect the navy to become the dominant player in the aftermath in terms of government influance from the military.
Unless japan really lost the land war Korea isn’t going to be given up to Russia. Like ever.

losing Manchuria hurts but to japan Korea is vital to japan security there’s isn’t any way they will willing give Korea unless is a total defeat
 
but as the British had blocked Russia buying them they felt that they had to decline to sell to Japan.
Why did they feel they had to block them to Japan?
If they were truly neutral with no connection to either side and don't care about the winner that's one thing, but they're in an alliance with Japan and presumable want Russia to lose.
 
Why did they feel they had to block them to Japan?
If they were truly neutral with no connection to either side and don't care about the winner that's one thing, but they're in an alliance with Japan and presumable want Russia to lose.
The British were trying to be neutral. Their alliance with Japan meant that the British would only get involved if Japan was fighting two or more great powers.

Britain was walking a path of Japan favouring neutrality.

They would have been happy for Japan to buy Swifsure and Triumph when they were for sale. Then Japan pulled out and Britain took a public stance that they couldn't sell the battleships to Russia as they were neutral.

Britain then bought the battleships for the Royal Navy.

If Britain turned around and sold the battleships to Japan after blocking the Russians from buying them they would be publicly going back on their word.

As Britain was officially neutrll they had to apply the same rules to both countries.

Also Britain had bought Triumph and Swifsure after Japan pulled out. They were commissioned into the Royal Navy. There was a big difference at the time between the yards selling a battleship and a country selling a commissioned battleship from their navy.
 
Yeah I don’t get why people here keep saying losing to Russia japan will automatically become less war mongering when it can lead to an even worse military rule
It could easily cause Japan to have military rule
Remember the high-ranking members of the Japanese government in World War II are Junior officers in 1905 the structural problems that led to the Japanese military not being able to control its Junior officers are there they will just be exposed 32 years earlier
 
Unless japan really lost the land war Korea isn’t going to be given up to Russia. Like ever.

losing Manchuria hurts but to japan Korea is vital to japan security there’s isn’t any way they will willing give Korea unless is a total defeat
Well, if Russia is occupying Korea and Korea manages a revolution to get rid of the Japanese, then well, what can Japan actually do?
 
The army's prestige will sink like a rock, especially if Korea is lost, while the navy will get the bulk of the government's attention and funding from that moment on since there's no way the Russians could win at Tsushima.
 
Well, if Russia is occupying Korea and Korea manages a revolution to get rid of the Japanese, then well, what can Japan actually do?
Having Russia invading Korea in 1905 requires a big POD. OTL Russia Cossacks were so bad the Chinese population sided with the Japanese . Russia OTL land war was a bloody stalemate with japan as the transiberia. Railway I think wasn’t completed yet.( edit: was completed but only a single railway so yeah )

basically even if Russia somehow managed to beat the shit out of japan they still have to go through Manchuria... with natives that hate them and supply line stretch. All the while japan can fortify Korea in a series of defensive lines
 
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Easier said than done. The modern Japanese state was brought about through a civil war between samurai (the Boshin War). With both the Army and Navy claiming descent from those samurai, they're not going to accept being excluded from the government, just so the peasants can have a democracy resembling the UK or the USA.
The army and navy did not need to have cabinet posts like at all. It was all the result of a genro named Yamagata seeking to gain power over his rivals genros by pandering to the military. ( this is all before political parties come into being in japan)
Have Yamagata killed will lead to the army and navy not having cabinet post although they might want something else instead.( maybe something like imperial Germany )
 
Well, if Russia is occupying Korea and Korea manages a revolution to get rid of the Japanese, then well, what can Japan actually do?
I think the issue is occupying Korea. How does Russia hope to supply and reinforce an army so far east. It's not a simple march. The Japanese could pretty easily defend the peninsula on the Yalu River and assuming they still have naval superiority, they'll have no issues with supply and reinforcement.
 
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