Aetherling
Kicked
We All Know about the Racist State that was Rhodesia that gave up in 1979 but How Cooked were they I've heard they were in trouble following The Carnation Revolution but what was their expiration date
How Cooked was Rhodesia Actually?
- Thread starter Aetherling
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It's already surprising they survived so long, I don't think they could've lasted much more than IOTL.
If the Mozambique border was friendly, and therefore the Shona lands weren't able to be amorphously infiltrated, I don't really see the near term threat. ZAPU was not in a great position in 1974.
ZANU tactically wasn't particularly competent but having the ability to have a border to utilize made the small scale infiltration threat something that put pressure on the Rhodesian State's ability to prevent emigration of the white minority and the assimilation of a growing black middle class with a stake in the regime.
Of course, the steps that could be taken to shore up the government and expand it's constituency were done only under duress in OTL. So I think it's still a regime on borrowed time even if militarily its position remains secure. It certainly would not be able to deal with, say, an unfriendly South Africa, even if Mozambique remained Portuguese
ZANU tactically wasn't particularly competent but having the ability to have a border to utilize made the small scale infiltration threat something that put pressure on the Rhodesian State's ability to prevent emigration of the white minority and the assimilation of a growing black middle class with a stake in the regime.
Of course, the steps that could be taken to shore up the government and expand it's constituency were done only under duress in OTL. So I think it's still a regime on borrowed time even if militarily its position remains secure. It certainly would not be able to deal with, say, an unfriendly South Africa, even if Mozambique remained Portuguese
Then we get into the problem that the Portuguese colonial wars were also doomed and would not last much more unless you change something way before 1974.
Rhodesia was on the verge of a major escalation in the conflict.
Not only did the Portuguese Empire's implosion seriously impact their stability, but South Africa was scaling back their support(likely due Vorster meeting with Kissinger).
These factors only exacerbated the negative feed back loop with respect to the number of white people Rhodesia was starting to sink in: more violence -> whites flee -> less military personnel -> more violence.
Not only did the Portuguese Empire's implosion seriously impact their stability, but South Africa was scaling back their support(likely due Vorster meeting with Kissinger).
These factors only exacerbated the negative feed back loop with respect to the number of white people Rhodesia was starting to sink in: more violence -> whites flee -> less military personnel -> more violence.
Still, it could have hung on for a year or two in a miserable state. Who knows how long the rebels would have taken to seize Salisbury by themselves?
Even before the outbreak of large scale hostilities, and for most of its history, IIRC, Rhodesia's white population was rather transient (in the sense that the amount of whites leaving was often nearly the same as the number of white emigrants each year)
aaronupright
Banned
There were whites in South Africa for hundreds of years. For many, there was nothing to go back to.
Most Rhodesians could bugger off from Sailsbury back to Scotland or Shropshire.
Most Rhodesians could bugger off from Sailsbury back to Scotland or Shropshire.
Love the title. Rhodesia was cooked the minute it thought a white minority could rule over a black majority like it was the 1800s
The general consensus seems to be that things were okay, if not necessarily fantastic, while Portugal was still in control of their colonies. It closed the border and also gave a discreet lifeline to the rest of the world.
Once that went, it was a slow decline until they tapped out. You could probably delay it by a year or two or three assuming the Carnation revolution still happens, but it would be far uglier.
While Guinea-Bissau was gone, as I understand it the Portuguese were able to keep a surprisingly decent lid on things in Angola and Mozambique. If you can keep the Portuguese in Africa longer, you would keep Rhodesia around longer as well. Probably to the mid late '80s? Maybe a little longer?
Once that went, it was a slow decline until they tapped out. You could probably delay it by a year or two or three assuming the Carnation revolution still happens, but it would be far uglier.
While Guinea-Bissau was gone, as I understand it the Portuguese were able to keep a surprisingly decent lid on things in Angola and Mozambique. If you can keep the Portuguese in Africa longer, you would keep Rhodesia around longer as well. Probably to the mid late '80s? Maybe a little longer?
GuildedAgeNostalgia
Gone Fishin'
Could Rhodesia offer land and jobs to the tens of thousands of Portuguese whites leaving Portuguese Africa?
They did offer an open door, and around 3,000 moved to Rhodesia, but I think for many the writing was on the wall regarding Rhodesia's fate. Many more chose to move to South Africa as that country offered move opportunities and was seen as more stable.
That's not strictly accurate. By 1970, Frelimo controlled enough of Tete Province to grant ZANLA rear bases and access to the border.
If Carnation is avoided due to luck (For ex: Certain junior army officers mysteriously die) and a hardliner coup in December 1973 then it would make both Rhodesia and Salazarist Portugal somehow survive till atleast the early 80s.
If the Portuguese had given up on G-B they could have probably stuck around quite a bit longer. IIRC that tiny colony accounted for a disproportionately high amount of Portugal's casualties in the Colonial War, and was the only one where locally recruited Africans didn't make up around 50% of the Portuguese forces. Giving up on it early on could allow the Estado Novo to forego it's suicidal decision to conscript university students directly into its officer corps.
However the Estado Novo's whole ideology was not yielding a single inch of its overseas possessions, so that's off the table.
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Another simple cheap method is to just give them a boost of luck in G-B in the late 60s (If you are writing a timeline)
This is cheap but history has had such weird unexpected stuff happen many times where people just die or f up. They give their enemies an inch and the latter respond by taking a mile
In terms of a white ruled Rhodesia, you might, if everything went perfect for them, be able to stretch it to the mid 80s. It’s just wasn’t sustainable long term. I do think you could probably make it so they pull off the move that they tried with Muzorewa. That’s not that difficult imo. All you need there is a leadership in Washington and/or London that is either more hardline anti-communist or somewhat sympathetic.