What if the Hoon-Hewitt coup in January 2010 had succeeded in unseating Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and leader of the UK Labour Party? Most discussion on unseating Brown as Labour leader has focused on Purnell's resignation and 2008. Perhaps that's due to the impression as the time that the Hoon Hewitt coup was not a serious threat to Brown, a 'storm in a teacup' as he put it, and indeed it would seem that way. However, reading Brown At 10 it seems the plot was much more serious than it appeared at the time; "Number 10 ranked the Hoon/Hewitt coup as a 'six' on the Richter scale, compared to 9.5 when Purnell resigned. In the light of subsequent revelations, the threat would appear to be much higher than a six, and more serious than Purnell. If Harman and the other big beasts had acted as expected, Brown would have fallen." The idea behind the plot was to have Brown's cabinet force him to resign, however they ultimately 'bottled it'. The conditions for the plot were not ideal, as Labour had gained in the polls in late 2009, and had attacked the Tories effectively over a 'hole' of 34 billion pounds in their fiscal plan, and Brown on the day of the coup gave a better than normal performance in PMQs. This meant the Parliamentary Labour Party(PLP) ended up showing support for Brown on the day of the coup. Maybe if these factors had not all aligned, the PLP would not have unequivocally supported Brown, and this in turn would encourage the cabinet not to 'bottle it'. One potential PoD that may have an impact would be if Brown was asked about the unfolding coup in PMQs, as Conservative backbencher Ann Winterton had the chance to ask Brown about it, but instead asked him about wind farms, Brown At 10 has a quote saying "it would have been a total disaster for GB", though I'm not sure if that would have had a significant impact on its own. Harman and Straw were the key with cabinet, in telling Brown to resign. Due to the fear of leaks, the coup had been insufficiently coordinated with the cabinet beforehand, and if a meeting had been coordinated with a plan of action the plot may have gone off more effectively. How do you think the coup could have succeeded in resulting in Brown being removed as leader of the Labour Party? If he was removed, who would replace him? How would this effect the 2010 UK election? What would be the longer-term effects on UK politics and the UK Labour Party? What if?
Hoon-Hewitt Coup Succeeds
- Thread starter Pericles
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GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Merely a proposal on the part of the Tories, right? Because at this point Labour had been in power for twelve years.
And regarding the ‘08 and ‘09 Great Recession, I think the best way PM Brown can handle it is to say it’s a worldwide crisis, and we’re handling it significantly better than average.
But should say that I’m a Yank and may be all kinds of things I’m not seeing!
Merely a proposal on the part of the Tories, right? Because at this point Labour had been in power for twelve years.
And regarding the ‘08 and ‘09 Great Recession, I think the best way PM Brown can handle it is to say it’s a worldwide crisis, and we’re handling it significantly better than average.
But should say that I’m a Yank and may be all kinds of things I’m not seeing!
The attacks on the Tories probably helped, and also Labour seemed to be escaping its nadir in mid-2009 when it was in the low 20s and there were signs of an economic recovery. That said Labour's support remained under 30% the whole time and they weren't very close to the Tories in the popular vote(though FPP helped Labour in 2010).
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
I think the economy slowly started rebounding with positive growth again in mid-2009. Of course, the jobs recovery lagged as it usually does in recessions.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
So, June 2009 it is. And I guess a tepid recovery better than no recovery at all.
But then, this Pew Research article goes on to say, might need to excuse the fact that many American citizens are underwhelmed. And same probably true for many UK citizens.