Gustavo Rojas Pinilla returns to the presidency of Colombia in 1970?

One of the most common (and nefarious) types of political figures in Latin America during its independent history was that of the military dictator, who, besides using various unlawful methods to remain in power (to put it mildly) and being incredibly corrupt in most cases, was often subordinate to the whims of a foreign power, usually the United States. They were a staple of Latin American politics, with most countries possessing at least a handful of them over the course of their history.

Unlike most of its neighbors, however, Colombia had only one such ruler during the 20th century: Gustavo Rojas Pinilla, who governed the country from 1953 to 1957. Taking power under a context of extreme political instability (a civil war known as La Violencia), Rojas' dictatorship was characterized by severe repression of any form of opposition, combined with large investments in infrastructure and the extension of the right to vote to women. He also sought to create a political faction of his own to serve as an alternative to the duopoly formed by the Liberal and Conservative parties, and this, combined with his attempt to get a second consecutive term as president, led to his downfall after a general strike.

However, Rojas' fall from power did not lead to the end his political career. He founded a new party, the National Popular Alliance (ANAPO), and the number of legislators (deputies and senators) under its banner grew at a steady pace over the course of the 1960s, probably due to popular dissatisfaction with the National Front (an agreement in which the Liberals and Conservatives shared power by rotating the presidency). Rojas' ban from politics was lifted due to a decision by the Supreme Court, and this gave him a chance to run for the presidency of Colombia in 1970.

The 1970 presidential election was an extremely close race, and the National Front's candidate, Misael Pastrana, prevailed over Rojas by a margin of just 1.6%, or 63.000 votes out of almost four million. Rojas' supporters immediately said the election was fraudulent, and the popular backlash led to the creation of the guerrilla group M-19 (the same guys who would later take the Colombian Supreme Court hostage)... or so they claim.

So, what if the result of the 1970 election was different, and Gustavo Rojas Pinilla returned to the presidency 13 years after his ouster? It is important to note that, despite its growth, ANAPO did not have a majority in either house of Congress, so Rojas (who, from what I could gather, was a Perón-esque populist) would have to make a deal with either the Conservatives or the Liberals to govern effectively. He was also an old man by this point, one who died in January 1975 IOTL. Lastly, how could his administration handle the ongoing conflict with FARC and the eventual rise of the drug cartels?
 
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This reminds me of Getulio Vargas' return to power, maybe in a ironic twist of fate his 2nd presidency will resemble Vargas'
 
This reminds me of Getulio Vargas' return to power, maybe in a ironic twist of fate his 2nd presidency will resemble Vargas'
As tragically poetic as that would be, I think it's also quite unlikely - Getúlio was forced to kill himself under a very specific context. Not to say that Rojas would have an easy time as president, since the Conservatives would undoubtedly be pissed, as would at least some Liberals.
 
The CIA has an assessment of ANAPO. They talked about how Rojas Pinilla gained a lot of support from the populists who suffered from inflation and the anti-oligarchic grassroots populists in 1970, as well as many opportunists from the Liberal and Conservative parties. This political movement does not have any serious political philosophy, but is a crude mixture of nationalism, populism and corporatism. There are also some communists who are ready to hijack the movement to strengthen anti-American nationalism. They also mentioned the strong anti-democratic authoritarian sentiment of ANAPO supporters. In addition, they mentioned that Rojas Pinilla's views on the economy are quite simple, such as making the exchange rate between the Colombian peso and the US dollar one to one. The ANAPO manifesto also stated that it is necessary to establish a close relationship between the people and the armed forces. In 1953-1957, Rojas Pinilla's government relied heavily on the support of the army. He did not trust political parties and hoped to implement reformist policies through the army. However, excessive reliance on military personnel led to rampant nepotism and corruption, which was one of the main reasons for his downfall in 1957. In 1970, Rojas Pinilla's poor health was no secret. The CIA assessed that his daughter did not have enough ability and willingness to inherit his political legacy. Whether there was an outstanding successor was the key to whether ANAPO could survive.
The CIA listed 27 important leaders of ANAPO, especially the liberal Saul Charris de la Hoz, who had an increasing influence on Rojas and became a key figure in ANAPO. Saul Charris came from a liberal political family and was a populist close to Gaitan. There was a paper about him, but I had no way to get the full text. If Rojas was elected president, even if he was not a radical, he would inevitably be swept up by more radical followers, and would inevitably clash with the establishment of the Liberal and Conservative parties. It was very likely that another coup would occur.
 
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These were the main followers of Rojas Pinilla, but I was unfamiliar with them.

1. Manuel Bayona Carrascal: A Conservative and currently a Senator from the Department of Norte de Santander, He is a relative newcomer to ANAPO's ranks, and is also a physician and attorney.

2. Benjamin Burgos Puche: A Conservative and an experienced parliamentarian, he is currently a Senator from the Department of Cordoba.

3. Saul Charris de la Hoz: A Liberal from Atlantico. His influence with Rojas has grown, and he will be one of the major decision makers in the movement.

4. Gregorio Duarte: A retired army general.

5. Hernando Forrero Gomez: A Conservative and currently a representative from the Department of Caqueta. A retired army colonel, he was one of the leaders of an unsuccessful coup attempt in 1958 against the military junta that succeeded Rojas.

6. Jose Ignacio Giraldo: A Conservative and currently a Senator from the Department of Valle, he is believed to have considerable influence on General Rojas.

7. Josefina Valencia de Hubach: A Conservative and the sister of former President Valencia.

8. Jose Jaramillo Giraldo: A Liberal and presently a representative from Cundinamarca. He was ANAPO's presidential candidate in 1966.

9. Manuel Lemos Garviras: A Conservative,and currently a representative. A retired army major, he is the Anapista chief in Norte de Santander Department.

10. Luis F. Millan: A Conservative, he is a retired army colonel and the ANAPO chief in Bolivar Department.

11. Carlos Monroy Reyes A Conservative, and currently a Senator from cundinamarca who has some influence with Rojas.

12. Maria Eugenia Rojas de Moreno: A Conservative, and currently a Senator from cundinamarca. The daughter of the ex-dictator, she is the driving force behind ANAPO and, next to her father, enjoys the highest prestige and power in the movement

13. Samuel Moreno Diaz A Conservative and now Senator from Santander. He is the husband of Rojas daughter Maria Eugenia. His importance in the movement derives from his influence with his wife and General Rojas. He is not believed to be a national political figure.

14. Jose Maria Nieto: A Conservative, and currently a Senator from Boyaca. He was expelled from ANAPO because of personal differences with Maria Eugenia Rojas de Moreno in 1963, but apparently has returned to the movement

15. Fernando Pardo Quintana A Liberal, he is presently a representative from the Department of Bolivar. He was a judge during the Rojas Pinilla regime (1953-57).

16. Jaime Piedrahita Cardona: A Conservative, he is the ANAPO chief in Antioquia, and is currently a Senator. He is described as one of the less violent Rojistas.

17. Milton Puentes: A Liberal, he has a distinct inclination to the left, and has been characterized as a friend of the Communist Party. During the period 1947-50 he was reported to be involved with the Gaitan faction of the Liberal Party. currently a representative.

18. Alvaro Ramos Murillo A Conservative, and currently a representative

19. ovidio Rincon Palaez: A Conservative, and presently a representative from Quindio. General Rojas respects his ability.

20. Joaquin Rodriguez Gonzalez: A Conservative relatively new to the movement

21: Segura Perdomo: A Conservative inclined d Marxism. He is co-owner of Radio Latina n Bogota and a director of the ANAPO newspaper Alerta. He is presently a representative.

23. Moises Tarud: A Liberal, and currently a representative from the Department of Atlantico.

24. Luis Carlos Turriago Olaya: A Conservative, and a Senator from the Department of Meta. He is a retired army general.

25. Luis Guillermo Velasquez: A Conservative,he is a well-known newspaperman.

26. Arturo Villegas Giraldo: A Liberal. Heusually accompanies Rojas during campaign trips because of his oratorical abilities.

27. Alberto Zalamea: A pro-Communist Liberal.He is the son of the deceased Communist "poet laureate" of Colombia, and the leader of the Liberal faction of the movement.
 
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It was very likely that another coup would occur.
Well that totally wouldn't turn Colombia into even more of a dumpster fire. /s

Thanks a lot for your assessment, and it makes a lot of sense too. Rojas was an old man after all, and AFAIK ANAPO took a hard turn to the left after his death.
This is a gold mine! Thanks a lot!
21: Segura Perdomo: A Conservative inclined d Marxism.
... What the hell? When you think politics can't get any weirder...
 
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