Great Powers reaction to an Ottoman Collapse in 1807-1808

[Kaiman]

Hey guys. I am currently writing a TL where Napoleon didn't make his two big blunders (The Peninsular War and the Invasion of Russia). I found an older post concerning what would happen if the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to the Palace Coups of 1807-1808. My main question is if Mahmud II is killed and no successful claimant (or puppet) is able to keep the throne, how would the Great Powers react?

Personally, I believe that Austria and Russia would have a field day partitioning the Balkans but the intervention of Britain and France would ensure a neutral power like Greece is placed in charge of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. What do you guys think?

 

[alexmilman]

Hey guys. I am currently writing a TL where Napoleon didn't make his two big blunders (The Peninsular War and the Invasion of Russia). I found an older post concerning what would happen if the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to the Palace Coups of 1807-1808. My main question is if Mahmud II is killed and no successful claimant (or puppet) is able to keep the throne, how would the Great Powers react?

Personally, I believe that Austria and Russia would have a field day partitioning the Balkans but the intervention of Britain and France would ensure a neutral power like Greece is placed in charge of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. What do you guys think?

For this Greece would need first to be created and then to be an acceptable candidate for everybody involved including Russia and Austria. A complete collapse of the OE is unlikely but scenario you described would almost definitely handicap the Ottomans in ongoing war with Russia. However, it is not clear if RE circa 1809 would pursue the same policy as in 1878 with the resulting creation of something close to the Balkan mess. Anyway, the Straits in the hands of much weakened Ottomans would probably be considered the best scenario.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@raharris1973

 

[raharris1973]

However, it is not clear if RE circa 1809 would pursue the same policy as in 1878 with the resulting creation of something close to the Balkan mess.

Well, we would have to consider what alternatives to the 1878 solutions they would have, in both relevant areas, the Caucasus and Balkans. In the Caucasus, I believe they would be starting from a point further north, or a less consolidated region.

 

[alexmilman]

Well, we would have to consider what alternatives to the 1878 solutions they would have, in both relevant areas, the Caucasus and Balkans. In the Caucasus, I believe they would be starting from a point further north, or a less consolidated region.

For all practical purposes most of what ended up as the Russian Caucasus was dependent upon OE mostly in the Ottoman imagination. The Circassian areas acknowledged authority of the Caliph but not a Sultan (even if this was the same person) and the Ottomans held some coastal cities. Russia formally had a foothold in a part of the modern Georgia while the Northern Caucasus was still on its own. So, comparing to 1877, as you said, the conquest would go from further North. OTOH, in 1877 there were not too many parts of the “Russian Caucasus” to be conquered: Russia got just Batum region.

On the Balkans I simply don’t want to speculate what the realistic plans could be. Relations with Nappy still had been bad and AI was not some kind of an innocent victim: he was quite confrontational. So this issue, short of the fundamental political changes, would remain and so would considerations regarding the Balkans: probably maintenance of the arrangements regarding the Danubian Principalities and some modest land grab, as in OTL, would be more plausible than “Drang Nach Balkans” 😉 But this is just my opinion.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Hey guys. I am currently writing a TL where Napoleon didn't make his two big blunders (The Peninsular War and the Invasion of Russia). I found an older post concerning what would happen if the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to the Palace Coups of 1807-1808. My main question is if Mahmud II is killed and no successful claimant (or puppet) is able to keep the throne, how would the Great Powers react?

Personally, I believe that Austria and Russia would have a field day partitioning the Balkans but the intervention of Britain and France would ensure a neutral power like Greece is placed in charge of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. What do you guys think?

Well the most realistic way I can find the Ottoman Empire collapse if they had no central leader would be a civil war between the governors of the provinces which would rally with someone who has a claim on the throne therefore ending in a civil war.
The Great Powers of Europe would support the various pretendants, the Russians and Austria might try to invade certain parts of the Empire(Austria would try to occupy Bosnia and Serbia, Russia would probably go on total war and would avoid escalation with Napoleon for the moment), the Romanian principalities would try to revolt probably with Russian help.
Edit: the Austrians wouldn't do anything as they were too nerfed by Napoleon

 

[Whiteshore]

What about the Arab regions of the Ottoman Empire, especially with the rise of both Muhammad Ali (no, not the boxer) and the First Saudi State during this period? How would the major powers (largely Britain and France, but yeah) handle the situation?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

What about the Arab regions of the Ottoman Empire, especially with the rise of both Muhammad Ali (no, not the boxer) and the First Saudi State during this period? How would the major powers (largely Britain and France, but yeah) handle the situation?

Arab regions of the Empire cannot influence the ongoing civil war as they are too weak. Britain and France were busy fighting each other in the Peninsula War and in the wider context of the Napoleonic Wars both didn't have the resources to spare to intervene in this Ottomans mess, the ones who would intervene are the Russians and the Christian minorities of the Empire supported by Russia

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Arab regions of the Empire cannot influence the ongoing civil war as they are too weak. Britain and France were busy fighting each other in the Peninsula War and in the wider context of the Napoleonic Wars both didn't have the resources to spare to intervene in this Ottomans mess, the ones who would intervene are the Russians and the Christian minorities of the Empire supported by Russia

Honestly the first Saudi state will be the biggest Benefactor from this since they can conquer the Levant and Iraq regions with little opposition.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Honestly the first Saudi state will be the biggest Benefactor from this since they can conquer the Levant and Iraq regions with little opposition.

Egypt alone was able to defeat the Saudis IOTL while having to invade them; I don't see the Saudis managing to get more control over former Ottoman territories than Egypt would do.

 

[TrickyApe]

Adam Czartoryski was already on his way out at the Russian Foreign Ministry as these events unfolded but his last (of many) plans for the Balkans, written at the end of 1806, offers some insight into at least one strand of Russian official thinking at the time.

At the very end the Prince turned to
Turkey; the only immediate changes to be introduced there were Serb
autonomy, and the union of Montenegro with Cattaro and (surprisingly)
with the Ionian republic. A permanent settlement in the future, however,
would entail the establishment of a federation of separate states under
Russian protection; Alexander would assume the grandiose title of 'emperor
or protector of the Slavs and of the East'. Should Vienna make demands in
the area, Czartoryski offered a third option in which the peripheral regions of
the Ottoman Empire would be redistributed as follows: Ragusa, Belgrade,
and parts of Bosnia and Wallachia would go to Austria; Moldavia, Cattaro,
Corfu, and especially Constantinople with the Straits to Russia; while several
Aegean islands and establishments in Africa and Asia would go to Britain
and France. (A Man of Honour: Adam Czartoryski as a Statesman of Russia and Poland, 1795-1831, W. H. Zawadzki, 1992, p.170)

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Could Austria Hungary make plans for future expansion into the Balkans? Especially in Romania and Yugoslavia.

 

[Beatriz]

Adam Czartoryski was already on his way out at the Russian Foreign Ministry as these events unfolded but his last (of many) plans for the Balkans, written at the end of 1806, offers some insight into at least one strand of Russian official thinking at the time.

Like so?

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Adam Czartoryski was already on his way out at the Russian Foreign Ministry as these events unfolded but his last (of many) plans for the Balkans, written at the end of 1806, offers some insight into at least one strand of Russian official thinking at the time.

Could Austria Hungary make plans for future expansion into the Balkans? Especially in Romania and Yugoslavia.

Francis the first and Alexander the first would probably revive the Catherine's greek plan as they are traditionalist and romanticist.
Would the Austrian Empire be able to go to war with France when they would be busy incorporating the Greater serbia and Albania into itself. Because that is going ethnic relations and disputes even worse than OTL.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Francis the first and Alexander the first would probably revive the Catherine's greek plan as they are traditionalist and romanticist.
Would the Austrian Empire be able to go to war with France when they would be busy incorporating the Greater serbia and Albania into itself. Because that is going ethnic relations and disputes even worse than OTL.

If the Congress of Vienna in 1814-1815 still happens, then Austria-Hungary could push for greater gains in the Balkans.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

If the Congress of Vienna in 1814-1815 still happens, then Austria-Hungary could push for greater gains in the Balkans.

I doubt there would even be a Fifth coalition since the possibility of Russian access to the Mediterranean would be worst nightmare scenario for the British. Or the fifth coalition is the British and whatever proxy states they can find or create in the collapsing Ottoman empire against the Austro-Russian alliance.

 

[jenalysis]

This Greece might be the best odds for a decent-sized Bonaparte successor state.

No Nappy in Spain means likely UK and France fighting in the Balkans, which is better ground for Nappy than Spain due to longer British supply lines, and the ability to likely have Austria or Russia as an ally.

You'll see Nappy and one of those powers likely vs Britain and the other of those powers.

My guess is you'd see Eugene or Joseph+ a royal princess of his allied power as King of the Greeks, as I think Nappy would win a war for Constantinople, though it would be a close-run thing.

My guess is the Hapsburgs get gains in the Balkans and Germany (maybe they get the rest of Prussia if Prussia gets involved?) , in exchange for Greece existing, getting some Hapsburg lands , and a larger Grand Duchy of Warsaw (perhaps Poniatowski gets installed as King of Poland, also marrying a Hapsburg?) Constantinople is jointly governed by Austria and Greece, or has a three-part ruler with France also included?

This might stabilize Europe long-term, as France+Austria would be pretty Hegemonic, Russia would be contained pretty hard. Nappy might have a free hand in Spain after 1809 with such an alliance against Russia. Russia and Britain would be locked into a pretty dangerous alliance for the Napoleonic-Hapsburg coalition.

 

[James Ricker]

A rush for the Middle East. The Napoleonic Wars wouldn't happen as everyone would be focused on the Middle East where they could get more land with less risk and fewer losses.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

This Greece might be the best odds for a decent-sized Bonaparte successor state.

No Nappy in Spain means likely UK and France fighting in the Balkans, which is better ground for Nappy than Spain due to longer British supply lines, and the ability to likely have Austria or Russia as an ally.

You'll see Nappy and one of those powers likely vs Britain and the other of those powers.

Or weirder still, France and Great Britain ally in this situation from sharing the same concerns over Russia but for different reasons.

 

[jenalysis]

Or weirder still, France and Great Britain ally in this situation from sharing the same concerns over Russia but for different reasons.

I can't see Austria and Russia not fighting over Constantinople in this case. It's kinda a holy grail for Russia, and Austria would see it as necessary for them as well.

Britain and France would be unlikely to support the same side. France will want someone anti-British to have it, British will not want a French ally to have it.

If Austria isn't willing to take it, Nappy would be willing to ally with Russia , allow for a Russian-French dynastic Greek State, and take most of it from the Hapsburgs- as well as make a Russian-French Kingdom of Poland. Austria would likely think their odds of winning are better with France, since it would be mostly a land war, and they can't beat France+Russia on land at all, it would be a wipeout.