Glossary of Sealion Threads

Doesn't seem to be a huge disparity in strength between the British home fleet and the combined European Axis navies, provided there was some way for the Italians to break out of the Mediterranean, if the Axis prioritized it.
 
Doesn't seem to be a huge disparity in strength between the British home fleet and the combined European Axis navies, provided there was some way for the Italians to break out of the Mediterranean, if the Axis prioritized it.
There is a reason bean counters lose wars. PACFLT was outnumbered 3 to 2 from 1941-1943. The IJN was a little weak on MAHAN and naval geography and the op-art.
 
Doesn't seem to be a huge disparity in strength between the British home fleet and the combined European Axis navies, provided there was some way for the Italians to break out of the Mediterranean, if the Axis prioritized it.
Those numbers are for May '41... Seelowe is realistically August-October '40. It also counts Vichy French ships as definitively Axis rather than dubiously neutral pro-Axis, and pre-Dread rust buckets as effective capital ships, both of which inflates Axis numbers considerably.

September-October '40 the Germans have no operational post-Dreadnought capital ships (S&G out of action after Norway, Bis still working up) while the Italian Battleline, well, the two Cavours had completed their rebuilds and were solidly in service; the two Dorias completed their rebuilds in July and October, and, the first two Littorios were commissioned as of May but don't seem to have seen any active use until August. So 0/1/3. (fully operational/available in a pinch/non operational) plus 2/2-3/1-2...
 
What would be examples of other "Sealions"? (Highly speculated but doomed to fail enterprises)?
Successful Barbarossa? Invasion of Alaska after conquering the USSR? Japanese Hawaii?
 
What would be examples of other "Sealions"? (Highly speculated but doomed to fail enterprises)?
Successful Barbarossa? Invasion of Alaska after conquering the USSR? Japanese Hawaii?
Japanese Hawaii depends on the POD. You can't do it with one in WWII, but if the USA had not annexed Hawaii, it probably would have become part of either the British Empire or the Japanese one. If it didn't get annexed by either of those, it would probably be Imperial Germany.

There are a plethora of highly implausible things (up to and including ASB) related to the ACW.
 
Operation Barbarossa: Plausible given a POD sometime during WWII. Not particularly likely but it's not direly impossible.

Operation Sealion: Implausible given a POD sometime during WWII, but I'd argue is plausible given a POD sometime in the Interwar Period. It would require a different idea of German expansionism, but I'd say that with a POD in the interwar you could have a WWII that is identifiably similar to OTL's WWII that has a successful German invasion of the British Home Islands.

Japanese invasion of America: Implausible with any kind of POD that has a WWII that is similar to OTL's. Maybe you can have a War Plan Red-Orange vs. a hyperisolationist USA that leads to the creation of Hong Kong like treaty ports across the country if you can have the US military disarm and disengage as much as it did, say before WWI or the Spanish-American War.

Though honestly, I think that in general we lost the plot a bit as per sealion. The reason why Sealion threads are so maligned is because 1.) back in the Ye Olden Days, they took up so much fucking space and 2.) instead of being anything interesting, a German administration of Britain either ends up being gratuitous tortureporn or a neonazi fantasy. Ultimately, it doesn't matter if something is plausible as long as it is interesting. I would much rather have an interesting look at the British Home Islands under the jackboot than yet another "basically Kaiserreich but with a few minor changes," even if the latter is much more "plausible." Be bold in your timeline crafting, but be unique.
 
Operation Sealion: Implausible given a POD sometime during WWII, but I'd argue is plausible given a POD sometime in the Interwar Period. It would require a different idea of German expansionism, but I'd say that with a POD in the interwar you could have a WWII that is identifiably similar to OTL's WWII that has a successful German invasion of the British Home Islands.



How? Under the North Sea tunnels (Nunnels?) from the vicinity of Cuxhaven that emerge as surprise attack autobahn exit ramps near Norwich and Ipswich for panzer divisions?
 
Operation Barbarossa: Plausible given a POD sometime during WWII. Not particularly likely but it's not direly impossible.

Operation Sealion: Implausible given a POD sometime during WWII, but I'd argue is plausible given a POD sometime in the Interwar Period. It would require a different idea of German expansionism, but I'd say that with a POD in the interwar you could have a WWII that is identifiably similar to OTL's WWII that has a successful German invasion of the British Home Islands.

Japanese invasion of America: Implausible with any kind of POD that has a WWII that is similar to OTL's. Maybe you can have a War Plan Red-Orange vs. a hyperisolationist USA that leads to the creation of Hong Kong like treaty ports across the country if you can have the US military disarm and disengage as much as it did, say before WWI or the Spanish-American War.

Though honestly, I think that in general we lost the plot a bit as per sealion. The reason why Sealion threads are so maligned is because 1.) back in the Ye Olden Days, they took up so much fucking space and 2.) instead of being anything interesting, a German administration of Britain either ends up being gratuitous tortureporn or a neonazi fantasy. Ultimately, it doesn't matter if something is plausible as long as it is interesting. I would much rather have an interesting look at the British Home Islands under the jackboot than yet another "basically Kaiserreich but with a few minor changes," even if the latter is much more "plausible." Be bold in your timeline crafting, but be unique.
Pretty sure any invasion of America is doomed to fail for reasons of Geography, especially because US industry can make an Army very quickly? (In the industrial age at least)
Barbarossa... really? I thought this was like Sealion as in doomed to fail because the Soviets just would not give up against an army that they thought would obliterate their entire culture.
 
I'm sure we can all come up with things to make a Nazi German invasion of Britain in 1940 seem plausible with a pre-1940 POD .

Better Intelligence ( both the military and usual senses of the word).
Longer range single engine fighter.
Use the Me-110 as an intruder and low level fighter bomber
Proper Amphibious warfare equipment.
A dedicated anti-shipping force within the LW
Most of all... a proper Operational Plan . One that set out the key objectives of the air Offensive and target priorities . Such as : radar stations, Fighter Command Sector control airfields,

The problems of such PODs are many. The obvious one is that anything additional to actual German military production means that something else has to be foregone. So what do you give up?

More fundamentally, what priority should Nazi Germany give to production of what's needed for the USM prior to 1938 or even 1939? Given that its primary targets are France, Poland and the USSR?

The best I could see would be that OKW actually do its job of strategic planning. And in the same way that the US has its Orange, Red and other War Plans has a contingency plan for how it could organise an invasion of the UK were France to be occupied and the UK fight on. But as in 1933 to 1938 that would have seemed a very remote contingency, perhaps they can be excused for not considering the problem.
 
The best I could see would be that OKW actually do its job of strategic planning. And in the same way that the US has its Orange, Red and other War Plans has a contingency plan for how it could organise an invasion of the UK were France to be occupied and the UK fight on. But as in 1933 to 1938 that would have seemed a very remote contingency, perhaps they can be excused for not considering the problem.
The Americans had one in case the UK fell to counter-invade via the north circle route using Iceland as a stepping stone to Scotland and northern Ireland. It was frankly unworkable.
 
The Americans had one in case the UK fell to counter-invade via the north circle route using Iceland as a stepping stone to Scotland and northern Ireland. It was frankly unworkable.
That is serious contingency planning. With adequate air and sea power I could see them liberating the Faroes and maybe the Shetland islands. Getting further would have been...
Shall we say difficult?

Would Ireland have been a potential stepping stone or did the US have to assume it would also be German controlled?

It does show how lackadaisical the OKW was in comparison.
 
Would Ireland have been a potential stepping stone or did the US have to assume it would also be German controlled?
Ireland... would for American domestic political as well as the usual logistical and military operational reasons would have been extremely difficult. On paper it superficially looks doable, but look at the naval and air geography.



Polar Maps and Projections

The tactical sortie distance is 1500 kilometers from Iceland to Northern Ireland. Scotland is actually closer.

The problem is air coverage. B-17Gs can barely meet the op-requirement.

Fighters? P-38 coverage was about 700 km tactical radius.



Map of Iceland--Iceland Map show cities, glaciers and ...

Now then... More realistically

Faeroe Islands is within P-38 tactical distance of 700 kilometers from positions in eastern Iceland. Next step is the Shetland Islands and then follows Scotland and then landings in Southern Norway (Tromso). It would look a LOT like DOWNFALL in parameters and force commitment.

Would it be possible? If the Germans are bogged down in Mid Barbarossa... I still would not try to sell "Cambridge" to FDR as a done deal. The weather and the geographical limit factors in theater are hideously terrible, and the politics worse. The Germans are the least of the problems to overcome.

McP
 
I'm sure we can all come up with things to make a Nazi German invasion of Britain in 1940 seem plausible with a pre-1940 POD .

Better Intelligence ( both the military and usual senses of the word).
Longer range single engine fighter.
Use the Me-110 as an intruder and low level fighter bomber
Proper Amphibious warfare equipment.
A dedicated anti-shipping force within the LW
Most of all... a proper Operational Plan . One that set out the key objectives of the air Offensive and target priorities . Such as : radar stations, Fighter Command Sector control airfields,

The problems of such PODs are many. The obvious one is that anything additional to actual German military production means that something else has to be foregone. So what do you give up?

More fundamentally, what priority should Nazi Germany give to production of what's needed for the USM prior to 1938 or even 1939? Given that its primary targets are France, Poland and the USSR?

The best I could see would be that OKW actually do its job of strategic planning. And in the same way that the US has its Orange, Red and other War Plans has a contingency plan for how it could organise an invasion of the UK were France to be occupied and the UK fight on. But as in 1933 to 1938 that would have seemed a very remote contingency, perhaps they can be excused for not considering the problem.
The issue of earlier PODs has been dealt with over and over. The Nazis start making a bigger navy and the Brits and the French do the same. To keep up, Hitler will have to put more resources into the Navy and less into tanks and planes. If the Nazis start building much more advanced aircraft, the reaction is that the Brits and French do too with the same result. And maybe it influences the Russians. Maybe the British make the alliance with Russia that Churchill urged after Hitler came to power and began grabbing territory. And there will also be blowback on U.S. military development and production, with the U.S. developing prototypes on which the Brits and French can purchase patent rights, or order the first assembly line batch. Maybe this will include tanks as good as those of Hitler, with the Russians also stealing or purchasing the designs. Soon Hitler will be priced out of the market both directly and metaphorically. His suicidally narcissistic launching of a huge war results in no conquest of France and a much earlier defeat of Hitler.

The only non-ASB scenario I can think of that might counter this is one in which a pacifist government comes to power in Britain that repudiates all its international treaties and halts all military spending, and this would be very difficult to craft in a believable way. Certainly an earlier arms race would get rid of the Cliveden Set and if fascists of some other type came to power in London, they would be rivals of Hitler rather than his lapdogs and would ally with Mussolini.
 
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