Germans bleed the French at Verdun, but how long?

Having Alexi Evert convince Tsar Nicholas to put him in charge and ignore Brusilov's offensive plans might knock Russia out in 1916...
 
I'm not sure how that would work out, considering Hoffmann was very much part of the Ober Ost clique, led by Hindenburg and Ludendorff.
Yeah, but Colonel Max wasn't afraid to disagree - quite openly - with the duum(b)virate, which I think scored him some points among others in leadership positions... though presumably not with Ludendorff.
 
Failure of the Brusilov Offensive means Germany reinforces both the Austrians in Italy more than OTL such that Venice could be endangered and the Western Front enough to consider additional offensives.
Falkenhayn was quite the Westerner, I'm not so sure about him sending much to the Italian Front to work with. It might not even be necessary, since Austria-Hungary would have sustained significantly less losses ITTL. No Asiago Offensive, much less hurtful BO and no Romanian entry. Austria-Hungary, with little to no German support might or might not be able to manage a Caporetto-esque success against Italy. It's very situational. Nevertheless, they would be able to atleast hold the line, that's for sure. Meanwhile, the Germans would probably concentrate most of their efforts on the Western Front.

It also puts the Eastern Front in late 1916 ATL where it was early 1917 OTL and may accelerate the Russian Revolution
The people are the hungriest and also angriest at the end of the winter and the beginning of spring. It's not a coincidence that OTL the Russian revolution started on March 8th. People were hungry, and the recent introduction of food rationing didn't help. The women's March in Petrograd in celebration of International Women's Day acted as a great catalyst for the outburst of the people's frustrations and grievances. I don't think that the exact situation on the front actually played a big role in the date of the outbreak of the revolution.

if not a Brest-Litovsk equivalent
By this you mean a separate peace with Russia before its revolution? Even in these circumstances, there are a number of factors, which would make such thing unlikely. The cessation of Anglo-French material support, the fear of German noncompliance after their Western victory, the fear of Japanese exploitation of Russia's isolation, the Russian population's general pro-war sentiment and last but not least the German overdemanding in tandem with the Russian pipedream of annexation-less peace.

could the Allies withstand the 1918 Spring offensive if it had occured 6 months earlier?
With Falkenhayn being in control, the introduction of USW is less likely, which would mean that the USA won't enter the war in the foreseeable future. Without the American entrance, there's no need to rush a final "all or nothing" offensive. The Germans would probably have a different approach ITTL.

Having Alexi Evert convince Tsar Nicholas to put him in charge and ignore Brusilov's offensive plans might knock Russia out in 1916...
If not else, Russia would completely lose all its offensive capabilities. There wouldn't be an equivalent of the OTL Kerensky Offensive (not that it did worth much), that's for sure.

Yeah, but Colonel Max wasn't afraid to disagree - quite openly - with the duum(b)virate, which I think scored him some points among others in leadership positions... though presumably not with Ludendorff.
Yes, but Ludendorf's position was something, that was created for him specifically. The Dynamic Duo already runs the show in the East, the Chief-of-Staff (aka Falkenhayn) can manage the Western Front on its own. It's another question if the Supreme Command of the Central Powers is created ITTL too and Falky becomes the Supreme Commander himself. In such case, indeed, there would be a need for someone to manage to Western Front exclusively. Even then though, it's quite unlikely that the chosen person would be Hoffman, as he was still an Easterner, regardless of his colding relations with Ludendorf. I would say Knobelsdorf or Gallwitz are more likely candidates. Then again, it's not a given that ITTL the unified Supreme Command would be created.
 
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With Falkenhayn being in control, the introduction of USW is less likely, which would mean that the USA won't enter the war in the foreseeable future. Without the American entrance, there's no need to rush a final "all or nothing" offensive. The Germans would probably have a different approach ITTL.
With this being said, what could be the next German objective in the West? I'm inclined to believe, that the Germans would likely keep targeting the French instead of going after the more fresh Brits. Would Reims and the line of the Vesle River be an adequate new target? Reims is not only yet another historically important French city, but the capture of the line of the Vesle would also mean the elimination of one of the larger "dents" in the German lines. A success here would also secure the Noyon Salient from the South, which the German had to abandon IOTL. What do you think?
 
With this being said, what could be the next German objective in the West? I'm inclined to believe, that the Germans would likely keep targeting the French instead of going after the more fresh Brits. Would Reims and the line of the Vesle River be an adequate new target? Reims is not only yet another historically important French city, but the capture of the line of the Vesle would also mean the elimination of one of the larger "dents" in the German lines. A success here would also secure the Noyon Salient from the South, which the German had to abandon IOTL. What do you think?
Probably sitting out until early Summer of 1918, and then going for Operation Michael only, to cut BEF off, and then in August or September launching OTL MarneOffensives. Probably not.
 
Probably sitting out until early Summer of 1918
Why would they do that? Sitting out more than an entire year just after achieving their largest victory on the Western Front so far doesn't sound very likely to me. "Strike while the iron is hot", as the saying goes. Or would there be inefficient amount of materials to support a new large scale assault in the West in your opinion?

Falkenhayn & Conrad - neither rated the other.
Which makes the creation of a unified command even less likely.

ITTL, Conrad, for whatever reason didn't go through with his plans to attack the Italians in 1916. This doesn't mean he wouldn't go through with it in 1917 though. Well, if he isn't sacked by Karl, that is. Such thing occuring is less likely however, since Conrad has a somewhat better trackrecord ITTL.

Now, what do you think, what are the chances of an 1917 Asiago Offensive for success ITTL?
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Why would they do that? Sitting out more than an entire year just after achieving their largest victory on the Western Front so far doesn't sound very likely to me. "Strike while the iron is hot", as the saying goes. Or would there be inefficient amount of materials to support a new large scale assault in the West in your opinion?


Which makes the creation of a unified command even less likely.

ITTL, Conrad, for whatever reason didn't go through with his plans to attack the Italians in 1916. This doesn't mean he wouldn't go through with it in 1917 though. Well, if he isn't sacked by Karl, that is. Such thing occuring is less likely however, since Conrad has a somewhat better trackrecord ITTL.

Now, what do you think, what are the chances of an 1917 Asiago Offensive for success ITTL?
IIRC it was lack of support from Falkenhayn that forced Conrad's offensive against Italy to be shortened. Conrad always wanted to attack Italy, even when they were both members of the Triple Alliance (actually Italy did much the same), so was enormously annoyed with Falkenhayn.
 
Why would they do that? Sitting out more than an entire year just after achieving their largest victory on the Western Front so far doesn't sound very likely to me. "Strike while the iron is hot", as the saying goes. Or would there be inefficient amount of materials to support a new large scale assault in the West in your opinion?


Which makes the creation of a unified command even less likely.

ITTL, Conrad, for whatever reason didn't go through with his plans to attack the Italians in 1916. This doesn't mean he wouldn't go through with it in 1917 though. Well, if he isn't sacked by Karl, that is. Such thing occuring is less likely however, since Conrad has a somewhat better trackrecord ITTL.

Now, what do you think, what are the chances of an 1917 Asiago Offensive for success ITTL?
I'm not as good with the Western front as the Eastern, but I think H&L decided to pull back to the Hindenburg Line and remain on the defensive through 1917 was mostly because the massive casulties they'd taken at Verdun on the Somme made holding their current line impracticable.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
I'm not as good with the Western front as the Eastern, but I think H&L decided to pull back to the Hindenburg Line and remain on the defensive through 1917 was mostly because the massive casulties they'd taken at Verdun on the Somme made holding their current line impracticable.
IIRC it was to free up divisions as a strategic reserve.
 
IIRC it was lack of support from Falkenhayn that forced Conrad's offensive against Italy to be shortened. Conrad always wanted to attack Italy, even when they were both members of the Triple Alliance (actually Italy did much the same), so was enormously annoyed with Falkenhayn.
Not only that, but Ludendorf didn't support the action either. This forced Conrad to act on his own, stripping down the Austro-Hungarian frontline in the East in the process, which made it extremely vulnerable to Brusilov's attack.

IIRC it was to free up divisions as a strategic reserve.
Furthermore, to release some manpower for the Hindenburg Program.

I'm not as good with the Western front as the Eastern, but I think H&L decided to pull back to the Hindenburg Line and remain on the defensive through 1917 was mostly because the massive casulties they'd taken at Verdun on the Somme made holding their current line impracticable.
Yes, but as noted above, that was only one part of the reason. Otherwise, since the huge Verdun Salient would be straightened ITTL, that already helps in that aspect to some extent.
 
What could the political fallout of Souville falling, or even Verdun being abandoned? I'm guessing the Briand government will fall, but will Ribot succeed him, or someone else?
 
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